Boise State Football

The Mountain West Conference has announced, via their official conference website, that it will hold a conference championship game in 2013. The game will take place on December 7 and will be hosted by the MWC division champion that has the highest ranking in the BCS.

To do this, the MWC had to also set its official divisions. The conference leadership came up with a "West" Division and a "Mountain" Division. Not extremely creative, but very effective in placing teams geographically, making it much easier to remember which team belongs to which division.

In the West Division of the Mountain West it will be Hawaii, San Jose State, San Diego State, UNLV, Fresno State and Nevada. This will be a very competitive division, at least for the near future, and is a very nice geographical fit.

The Mountain Division will also be a decent geographical configuration, but the overall competition will be a step below the West. It will include Boise State, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah State and Colorado State.

If you are a Bronco fan you probably realize that the Mountain Division is currently the least competitive of the two divisions. Chadd Cripe of the Idaho Statesman broke down the winning percentage for Boise State versus both divisions.

The Broncos have won 72.7 percent of their games against West Division opponents as opposed to 87.1 percent against Mountain Division teams. That includes a 13-4 record against Utah State, and as Cripe points out, the Broncos' last loss to the Aggies was in 1997.

However, Utah State is a much-improved team and should be competitive even with the recent departure of its excellent coach Gary Andersen, who took the Wisconsin job in December. Look for Utah State to give Boise State a great game in 2013.

Boise State head coach Chris Petersen is probably not real happy to see Air Force in the same division as the Broncos. The triple-option is not a favorite for any coach to defend. Petersen and his team realized that when they played the Falcons in 2011 and New Mexico in 2012.

Both of those teams will be bringing their old-fashioned, simplified, difficult-to-defend run-based offense to the Mountain Division, and with it, the sale of antacid will certainly go up in the Boise area.

The MWC also noted that each team would play three crossover games each season, but that they would be generated by a computer. The official announcement states:

Each team will play five divisional games and three cross-divisional contests annually. The actual rotational sequence and matchups will be developed via computer scheduling models.

This will be important for Boise State, as much of its recruiting is based in the state of California. One or two games per season in the Golden State helps the Broncos maintain that presence, and it gives them another item to offer recruits and their families.

The divisional models and conference championship game should bring some intrigue and interest to the MWC. However, they could also produce another hurdle for the Broncos or any other team in the conference vying for a BCS spot.

The University of Houston learned that lesson the hard way when it lost to Southern Miss in the 2011 Conference USA title game. It cost the Cougars a spot in the BCS and C-USA millions in revenue.

Still, it should be an exciting season in the Mountain West, and with the new format, it will certainly be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

It appears as though the dust is beginning to settle out West.

The Mountain West Conference, which looked like it would struggle to stay afloat amidst all the conference realignment just a year ago, has now firmly implanted itself in the FBS division landscape for the time being.

When San Diego State announced on January 16 that it would be staying in the Mountain West instead of joining the Big East later this year, the Mountain West officially became a 12-team conference for football starting this coming season.

The Aztecs, perhaps predictably, followed the footsteps of Boise State, who on New Year’s Eve of last year announced that it too would forgo joining the Big East to stay in the conference that makes much more sense geographically for both schools.

Headed by the Broncos, Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson now has a pretty solid slate of schools that can be counted as full members. Other than Hawaii, which was added as a football-only member to the conference last year, every other school will participate under the MWC umbrella for most of the other sponsored sports (San Diego State and Boise State are an exception for soccer and wrestling, respectively).

With 12 teams for football, the conference has already expressed interest in setting up a conference championship game as early as the 2013 season. According to CBSSports.com’s Dennis Dodd, it is the “full intention” of the Mountain West to split into two divisions and stage a conference title game.

Commissioner Thompson hasn’t made any inclination as to what the two divisions would look like, and made the point not to begin scheduling for the upcoming season after Boise State declared it would stay in the conference, perhaps anticipating the situation. But at any rate, this is a good thing for the conference as a whole.

A conference title game often can only hurt a “Big Six” conference, potentially knocking a team out of national title consideration in the last week of the regular season. In the Mountain West’s case, a conference title game adds another quality victory to the winner’s resume.

Looking at the big picture, a 12-team Mountain West puts some pressure on the committee that oversees the future college football playoff to rethink its initial decision to deny the conference a waiver to automatically qualify for the next two seasons.

In the original plan, five conferences (Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12) have a built-in partnership with three “contract bowls” that will become part of the equation once the playoff is instituted. Three other “access” bowls will also take the place of the current BCS bowls under the current system.

Under the new system, the sites of the two semifinal playoff games will rotate between the six total bowl games.

If the Mountain West does in fact implement a conference title game, it would become the seventh FBS conference to do so along with the Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC, ACC, MAC and Conference-USA. Four of those other six conferences will have tie-ins to “contract bowls” under the new playoff system. The other two have been relegated to “mid-major” status and have not made any moves to suggest that they will be labeled differently in the near future.

The same cannot be said of the Mountain West. With Boise State, Utah State, San Diego State and Nevada, a quality argument can be made that the MWC is the sixth best conference in FBS division college football. There will be six major bowl games under the playoff system, and five conferences guaranteed a spot in one of those bowls.

Is the math clear enough yet?

Presumably, there will be an open spot in one of those bowls, even if a deal is made with the power conferences to allow two schools from a particular conference to participate in a major bowl.

In other words, the Mountain West may be preparing for a trial period to prove to the bowl executives that it should be included in the partnership to guarantee a team into one of the major bowls.

It’s not too much to ask, really. Guaranteeing a spot in a major bowl game doesn’t guarantee that the Mountain West will get a team into the playoff every season. But it does assure that the conference will see some of the money that will be distributed to teams participating in the biggest bowls, something that is very important, as well.

Since Boise State agreed to a 50/50 split with the conference of any money that is made from playing in a BCS Bowl game, the Broncos have a lot to gain from the potential setup, as well. Assuring the Mountain West a spot in a major bowl lets Boise State know every conference championship is essentially a major payday.

Why would the school ever leave?

The answer to that question is simple: continued change.

The landscape of college football is not done shifting. Several recent moves by conferences such as the Big Ten and ACC suggest that the major players in the sport want to have 16 teams by the time things have completely settled.

Maybe the Pac-12 will reach out to Boise State in the future looking to become a 16-team league. The school’s academic reputation is improving, and if college football ultimately becomes a sport run by four “super-conferences,” that would be the logical destination.

It is likely that Boise State would jump at the opportunity under such circumstances. That is, to remain relevant in college football.

But right now, it’s hard to predict what exactly the changes will be.

So in the current state of things, Boise State (and every other MWC member for that matter) can enjoy stability, favorable revenue deals and the potential for huge bowl payouts if the conference can position itself to be added to the partnership that will be guaranteed a spot in a major bowl.

Put simply, the new look of the Mountain West Conference has the Broncos sitting pretty for the time being.

It’s really far too early to be talking about college football’s top 25 teams for the 2013 season. The 2013 recruiting class hasn’t even been finalized yet.

But since ESPN’s Way-Too-Early 2013 Top 25 was released on Jan. 10, it’s kind of hard to resist the temptation to look at it anyway.

Scrolling down to the high teens, one will find the Boise State at No. 19. What exactly are the Broncos doing there?

That’s being too generous.

Don’t twist those words. It is not to say that Boise State will be bad next season. In fact, the Broncos have the potential to be very solid in 2013, especially if the offensive line doesn’t miss a beat after replacing three starters and quarterback Joe Southwick has the kind of breakout season that he is capable of.

But we’ve seen this before. Last season, to be precise. The Broncos, needing to replace key parts from the 2011 squad, came into the 2012 season ranked No. 24 in the nation. The first hurdle was Michigan State in East Lansing, led by running back Le’Veon Bell.

Two touchdowns and 210 rushing yards later, Bell made Boise State’s defense look hapless against the run. As we would find out as the season progressed, the Broncos defense was not hapless. It finished first in the Mountain West in total defense.

It took Chris Petersen’s team time to work out the kinks, and by the end of the season the Broncos were not a squad that most teams would want to face. The key word is "time," however, and Boise State will need that again in 2013 before it can consider itself a Top 20 team.

Boise State will kick off the 2013 season in Seattle with a rematch against Washington, the same team that the Broncos beat in this past season’s MAACO Bowl Las Vegas.

Washington is a major threat to Boise State’s chances at perfection for a number of reasons. Most notably, the Huskies nearly beat the Broncos in the MAACO Bowl thanks to the heroic efforts of sophomore running back Bishop Sankey.

Sankey, who rushed for 205 yards against the Broncos, may feast on a Boise State defense next season similarly to the way Bell did in 2012. The Broncos lose their entire linebacking corps and their best weapons in the defensive secondary—cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Jerrell Gavins.

Then there is quarterback Keith Price, who is still raw, but has shown the ability to take advantage of weak coverage during his two-year stint as a starter.

Put simply, the Broncos could face growing pains worse than they did this past season, when the offense struggled. The defense bailed the Broncos out of several games in 2012. The offense should be better out of the gate in 2013, but will it really be strong enough to make up for potential defensive issues?

This is all purely speculation, of course. Who cares if Washington can beat Boise State? Isn’t it better to be ranked to start the season, so that the road back into the Top 25 is easier after a loss?

Maybe. Northern Illinois being thumped in the Orange Bowl may have erased some of the work schools like Boise State and Utah had done for small conferences. It might be nearly impossible to lose your season opener as an unranked mid-major squad and find yourself in a BCS game now.

But maybe the Broncos would thrive in the role of the underdog. It’s been quite awhile since Petersen’s team has been called that.

If Boise State does manage to beat Washington and somehow runs the table in 2013, it will be in the same position regardless of whether it starts the season at No. 19 or unranked. It isn’t like the team has “national title contender” written all over it.

Let the big boys think that they are one of the Top 25 teams in the nation, and have the Broncos creep up as the season matures. Let the defense prove that it won’t miss a beat despite losing six starters from the 2012 team. Let Southwick quietly become one of the better quarterbacks in college football.

Don’t overrate a team that is used to being disrespected. Boise State doesn’t need the No. 19 Way-Too-Early ranking when it isn’t really the 19th-best team heading into next season.

They'll earn it if they deserve it.

When Boise State announced that it was staying in the Mountain West Conference instead of joining the Big East Conference this coming summer, it didn’t come as a surprise to many. The school was toying with the idea of staying in its current conference for about a month leading up to the final decision on Dec. 31st.

But the reasons the Broncos will continue to be a member of the Mountain West were rather surprising to those that do not follow the conference closely.

Like the power conferences that are adding new members left and right, the Mountain West brought to the table an offer that a school like Boise State simply couldn’t refuse: a lucrative TV deal.

The Mountain West Conference Catered to Its Cash Cow

While the allure of the Big East Conference may have been the ability to take advantage of its automatic qualifier status to a BCS bowl for one year, the conference’s ability to negotiate a TV deal was made increasingly difficult by the constant chaos regarding its members.

The Mountain West stepped up in a big way, essentially making Boise State the king of the hill in the conference.

According to Rivals.com, the Mountain West got down on its knees when the Big East simply would not. By re-negotiating a TV contract with CBS Sports Network, the conference can sell packages of its games to other networks.

Not only does this give the Mountain West the ability to maximize the exposure of its marquee matchups, but it allows for flexibility with its television contract, something every small conference would love to have.

In addition to revenue from television deals, the Mountain West agreed to give half of the money earned from a BCS bowl to the team that actually plays in the bowl. This is different from most conferences, which split BCS bowl money equally amongst every team.

Not only does Boise State benefit from the TV deal, but it stands to gain a lot more from any success it may have because of the revenue-sharing deal.

It is clear that the Mountain West knew it had a good thing in Boise State and was going to do whatever necessary to keep it around at least a little while longer.

The Big East Was Ultimately a Stepping Stone to Greater Things

The Mountain West’s TV deal was huge in Boise State’s decision to stay with the conference. But not just because of the green. It also established the Mountain West as a stable conference for the time being, which will be key if Boise State ever wants to move into a superconference in the future.

The Big East was not going to be a final destination for the Broncos, even if the conference did manage to stop the bleeding caused by the exodus of other schools.

Put simply, Boise State would have hoped to do the same thing as schools such as Rutgers and Louisville: get invited to join a conference that appears to be headed towards superconference status.

Deny it if you want, but the landscape of college football is changing. Conferences are not done expanding just yet, and they won’t be until at least four major conferences have 16 members. In the future, there will be a clear-cut line between the haves and have-nots in major college football because of this.

Boise State wants to be part of the former group. It should be, too, despite the complaints from some that the school has experienced only recent and perhaps limited success.

At one time, the Big East was filled with “haves.” Now the conference is struggling to stay alive by inviting members that will likely be a part of the “have-nots” when everything is said and done. Boise State does not need to be associated with that, especially considering that the Mountain West offers a better financial alternative.

Someday, the Broncos will need to be invited to a major conference. It used to look like the Big East was the best place to get asked to the dance. Thanks to the new TV contracts, that is no longer true. Why complicate things by adding an extra step?

Stability Matters

Starting next season, the Mountain West Conference will have 11 members for football. As the logical choice for former members of the Western Athletic Conference, which folded as a football conference after the 2012 season, the Mountain West picked up more than half of its football members over the past three years.

No school appears to be going anywhere, at least for a while. Geographically, every school fits in the conference.

Those two things cannot be said with any confidence about the Big East Conference. In fact, San Diego State now has to face the same decision as Boise State regarding its conference affiliation for football.

According to Yahoo! Sports, San Diego State is considering making the same move as the school it originally followed to the Big East.

While the Aztecs would not receive the same financial benefits as the Broncos, stability has to be a major factor in the final decision.

In the end, the deals made within the last couple of weeks have completely shaken things up.

At one time, the Big East appeared to be the best decision for Boise State. A new contract and a few guarantees later, and there is no question that the Mountain West is still the right home for the Broncos.

It is yet another testament to the popular sentiment that “money talks.” In this case, it yelled.