Wake Forest Football

Wake Forest is hoping to return to a bowl game this year, but will have to do it without Riley Skinner at QB who started for the Deacs all four years and delivered an ACC Title.

To get a more in-depth look at Jim Grobe’s squad this season, I contacted Blogger So Dear.

Q: Wake Forest won 11 games in 2006 with Riley Skinner as a freshman, but has decreased its win total each of the last three seasons all the way to five last year. Why do you think the decline happened?

A: There are a few reasons, but I'll try to keep it simple.

First and foremost, that 2006 team was magical. Every break that could go Wake's way went Wake's way. Timely interceptions, 50-yard field goals, an unlikely touchdown; it was just one of those seasons.

The next year was nothing to sniff at either—Kenny Moore had a great year, Alphonso [Smith] played much better, AC [Aaron Curry] became a star, but a lot of that magic was missing. And special teams suffered.

A year later, it was the offensive line. That was a disaster; and special teams were still awful.

And after that, well our most successful class in Wake football history graduated.

So the page was turned and it was really just Riley and a few others left. The offensive line was inconsistent and the defense was almost nonexistent at times. Plus, as good of luck the Deacs had in 2006 that was how much BAD luck the 2009-10 Demon Deacons had.

The decline made sense, and that's why I don't think most of us were particularly surprised. Although we would have liked to see more than the Eagle Bank Bowl in the 08-09 season.

Q: It sounds as if the QB situation is very unsettled after Spring Practice. Who do you expect will start the opener and how short is their chain?

A: Who knows? You probably have as good a guess as I do. Skylar Jones has looked good. Tanner Price shows promise but is too young. [Brendan] Cross has a really good shot. [Ted] Stachitas is probably the best bet if he's healthy.

If you put a gun to my head, I'd say it's between Skylar and Cross. If you were about to shoot, I'd panic and probably say Skylar.

Q: Wake struggled at times to run the ball last year. How is the health of 2007 ACC Rookie of the Year RB Josh Adams?

A: He's ready to go. I expect big things out of the running game this year. There are plenty of likely stars, and Adams is much more focused than he was last year.

As has been the theme--the questions on the line are still there, but I really think the running game will be much better than it was last year, especially since Wake seems devoted to making the running game a much higher priority than the passing game.

Q: I have heard this group of receivers is one of the most talented in the ACC. How will Grobe get the ball in the hands of this talented group with an inexperienced QB?

A: The receivers are spectacular. That was something that went largely unnoticed last year, but blew a lot of us away. The way that Y'Loo, [Marshall] Williams and [Chris] Givens played was just really great to watch. And with young players like Terrance Davis coming out of the woodwork—well, as long as someone can get them the ball, they'll catch it.

Q: Wake's offensive line was good, but certainly not great last year. Where can we expect the improvement in this unit to come from?

A: I honestly don't know. Russel Nenon needs to take the lead and the other guys need to grow up fast. [Joe] Looney is a star in the making, so I see him really anchoring this line. If they get rolling, they have the talent to make things happen.

Q: The defense topped the nation over 2007-2008 with 72 takeaways, but slipped last year to just 15. What is the missing ingredient to get Wake back in the black in turnover margin?

A: Swagger. Last year's team was way too tentative on D, but hopefully the experience will help the young guys' confidence. These guys have a ton of athleticism and speed--but they need to use it.

Q: The Demon Deacons were 10th in total defense in the league last year. Which unit needs to step up the most and get Wake more defensive stops?

A: The line. I fully believe the DBs will be on track this year, but the line needs to play much bigger than they did last year. The average weight has dropped a lot in the last couple years on the line and the guys need to use their speed and agility rather than trying to overpower linemen.

Q: Which of the freshman could see significant playing time this season?

A: There are a bunch of redshirt freshman offensive linemen that have a shot to start if they step up or there are injuries, but I'd say DBs like [Daniel] Mack and [Duran] Lowe or even Nikita Whitlock on the D-line have great opportunities to make an impact early.

Q: Grobe has gotten several offers to leave Winston-Salem for more traditional football programs. Why do you think he has stayed 10 years?

A: He loves Wake Forest, plain and simple. He has a lifetime pass from Wake fans because of what he has done from this program. And someday a building or a field will be named after him.

Wake is a place where he can run his system without any problems, recruit his guys and live comfortably in the community. Plus, he really does care about his kids and the school in general.

Money is nice and prestige is great, but sometimes the right fit means more that both.

Q: Under Grobe, Wake is 26-6 against teams from the state of NC. Which of the other 3 ACC schools is the biggest rival for the Deacs?

A: I'd give the edge to NC State. They've had some great battles against Wake in the last few years and the games always seem to go down to the wire.

Q: Describe a successful season this year at Wake. Describe a disappointing one.

A: Successful: the team improves every game and finishes the season strong. Disappointing: The team regresses and does not fight in games.

Q: What is your prediction for the season?

A: I'm setting the bar at 5.5 wins. I want badly to pick the over, but I think five might be the magic number.

My Take on Wake Forest…
The Deacons decline has some to do with luck but more to do with personnel I think.

The talent on the defensive side of the ball is way below what they had a few years ago with Curry, Smith and the rest. They have also battled a lot of injuries on offense especially at the tailback position.

Grobe needs a few years and some luck in recruiting to return Wake to a consistent ACC contender.

The schedule this year is not easy facing both Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech from the Coastal Division.

A few toss up games against Maryland, NC State, and Vanderbilt are on the road and that could be the difference between making a bowl or not.

Wake’s fate will be determined late when the Deacs close the ACC season with four straight Atlantic Division opponents.

But I do see them getting back to a bowl this season by the narrowest of margins.

Prediction:
6-6, T4th Atlantic Division

Thanks again to Blogger So Dear for his insight.

This draft profile and others can be found at NFL Soup.

Brandon Ghee (Wake Forest)

Height : 6' Weight : 189 40 Time : 4.45

Ghee has watched his draft stock fall of late, but his performance in practice at the Senior Bowl helped to restore confidence in the eyes of the pro scouts that this young man can play football.

He isn't the most athletically-gifted corner to enter this year's draft, but the upside of the former Demon Deacon is what will make him attractive to prospective ball clubs. He will likely be a better NFL player than he was at the collegiate level.

Faster than quick, Ghee has trouble in certain man coverage scenarios. He has excellent straight-line speed to keep up with receivers on the sidelines but struggles at times to keep up with routes that turn in or out sharply.

Ghee's long limbs are a blessing and a hindrance. His long legs don't allow him to properly mirror the smaller, quicker wideouts but his long arms allow him to stay off the ball in zone coverage and reach in at the last minute to cut off the ball.

In zone coverage, Ghee has the awareness to keep a close eye on the underneath routes and keep a blind eye on the cushion behind him. His backpedal is quick, but his size keeps him too high and no amount of hip movement will make up for the speed of NFL receivers.

He has a tendency to go for the big hit rather than make the play midair. His willingness to put a shoulder into the runner makes him a more attractive safety than a cover corner at the next level, but his awareness and high football IQ keeps his versatility intact. 

As a tackler, Ghee looks the part of the hard-hitting NFL safety, cutting through weak receiver blocks and contributing to keeping the opposing backfield in check. His hands are a little suspect at times, but his natural athleticism allows him to break up the play when he needs to.

Ghee provides run support better than any other corner in this year's class. He is aggressive at the line and unafraid to take a rough block. He knows how to use his hands in open field and does well to jar unprotected balls loose.

It's Ghee's confidence that will set him apart from the rest of the corners in his class. Despite never having been named to an all-conference team in three years as a starter, the cornerback believes he has the ability to be competitive in the NFL.

After fellow Wake Forest defender Alphonso Smith left for the NFL, Ghee was allowed to truly showcase his abilities and amassed decent numbers in a run-heavy conference. 

There is concern over a nagging ankle injury that kept Ghee off the field for a while in '09, but his level of comfort in man and zone coverage as well as his versatility in the backfield will make him an attractive prospect come April. 

Look for a team like Detroit to utilize an early to mid-round pick to get Ghee and bolster up their defensive backfield. With more than a few starting defenders possibly departing through free agency, the Lions will need Ghee's youthful athleticism to keep their defensive squad competitive in the NFC North. 

This season has certainly been a disappointment for the Demon Deacons, but at least Riley Skinner and the Deacs won their final game to end a season, career, and era on a positive note.

Faced with tough losses all year, Wake Forest could not catch a break anywhere.  Five of their seven losses were by three points or less.  They proved they could compete with anyone (except in a rough 38-3 loss to Clemson), they just couldn't hold on to the lead.

A Quick Week by Week Summary

Wake started shaky in week one against Baylor, and came within one final possession of winning, but just couldn't close it out.

They had solid wins against Stanford, a team who had not hit the national spotlight behind Toby Gerhart yet (and they kept Gerhart in check that game), and against Elon, admittedly not the toughest opponent.

They then suffered a tough loss in overtime to Boston College, where Riley Skinner was hit awkwardly causing a fumble on the three yard line as he was running for the end zone.  A touchdown would have won the game as well.

The season looked like it was being turned around, after two nice wins against North Carolina State and Maryland, but then it all went downhill.

The Deacs were stomped by Clemson, losing by 35 points, where both the offense and defense seemed decimated.  After this game, the losses just kept on coming, regardless of the circumstances.

In a rematch from their two games against the Midshipmen last season, where the Deacs lost in the regular season, but won the bowl game, once again Wake Forest lost by three points.  Trailing the whole game, Wake could not stop the triple option as Navy attempted zero passes that game.

Wake then took on Miami, a game that looked like an automatic loss, given Miami's ranking and success this season.  But the Deacons showed their skill, leading by 17 points at one time.  But, they could not hold on to the lead, and lost by one point after a Miami touchdown with only a minute to go.

They then faced Georgia Tech, a team ranked higher, and most expected a worse loss.  Exactly the opposite happened.  The Deacs kept up with the Yellow Jackets the whole time in a tight game, and even led by seven at one point.  But, they, again, could not hold on, losing by three in OT.

At this point, Wake needed to defeat both Florida State and Duke to become bowl eligible and it seemed possible given the struggles both teams have had.

However, the Deacs suffered an 11 point loss to the Seminoles, their second worst loss of the season.  Yes, that's right.  A team that finished with seven losses only had two losses of eleven or more points.  The other five were all by three points or less.

Wake's "bowl" game came against the Duke Blue Devils with the final game of the season.  The Deacons won the game convincingly by 11 points, but were leading the game from the second quarter.

Riley Skinner had a career day in his last game as a Demon Deacon, finishing with 372 passing yards and five touchdowns.  The defense got back to their old ways by scoring off turnovers as Alex Frye had a "pick six" that sealed the 45-34 victory.

The season was certainly a disappointment for the Deacons and their fans.  The defense was not as dominant as it had been in the past, showing how truly important players like Stanley Arnoux, Chip Vaughn, Alphonso Smith, and Aaron Curry were to the defense.

The Deacons can only wait for next season, but it will be the first time in four years that the offense is not led by quarterback Riley Skinner.  It will be a rough change, but the Deacons will persist with talented backs Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass still around.

Grobe's defensive minded team should improve next year as the young defense will have more experience from this season.  The defense was shaky this season, as they had good performances and some pretty terrible showings.  They certainly developed as the season went on, but an offseason could be just what this team needs to get better.

For now, Deacon fans can only thank Riley Skinner for the great four years, enjoy this year's bowl season, and hope to get back to the winning ways next season.

WAKE FOREST (-2.5) 28 No Carolina St. 23

NC State has rebounded from their ugly 3-7 opening night loss to South Carolina (just 133 total yards of offense at 2.4 yards per play) and mistake free quarterback Russell Wilson had a great game last week in the Wolfpack's 38-31 win over a good Pitt team.

Wilson has broken the record for most consecutive pass attempts without throwing an interception and he's thrown just 1 pick in 390 career passes heading into this game (none as a starter). Wilson will probably have to be mistake free to have a chance to win this game because Wake Forest looks like the better overall team and the Demon Deacons are at home.

Wake Forest is just 2-2 but their only two losses were by 3 points to a good Baylor team and by 3 points in overtime at Boston College last week in a game in which they averaged 7.5 yppl and allowed just 5.5 yppl (-2 in fumble margin hurt). For the season the Demon Deacons have out-gained their opponents 6.1 yppl to 5.4 yppl against a tougher than average schedule of teams that would combine to out-gain an average team 5.4 yppl to 5.1 yppl.

The only thing keeping Wake Forest from potentially being at least 3-1 is turnovers, as they were -3 in TO margin in their 3 point loss to Baylor and -2 in TO margin in their OT loss to BC (they were +2 in a 7 point win over Stanford and might have lost that game otherwise).

NC State has out-gained their 4 opponents 5.9 yppl to 3.9 yppl, but they've also played two horrible Division 1AA teams in Murray State and Gardner Webb and an average team would out-gain their schedule 6.0 yppl to 4.7 yppl - so they've only been 0.7 yppl better than average while Wake has been 1.0 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage. NC State obviously has an advantage in projected turnovers with Wilson projected to throw 0.2 interceptions and Wake QB Riley Skinner to throw1.0 picks, but Wake Forest has an advantage in special teams and is at home. Skinner has also been particularly good this season, averaging 8.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback).

My math model favors Wake Forest by 5 points even with a projected -0.9 in turnover margin and NC State applies to a negative 48-102-2 ATS situation if they remain a favorite.

I'll consider Wake Forest a Strong Opinion at -1 or better. I'd take Wake Forest for a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

I have 7 NCAA Best Bets and 4 NCAA Strong Opinions this week!

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Wake Forest 20 BOSTON COLLEGE (-1.5) 16

Boston College still hasn't found a capable quarterback, with Justin Tuggle and Dave Shinskie both struggling, and the Eagles have averaged just 4.9 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team.

Wake Forest hasn't been great defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl), but they're good enough to keep the Eagles in check. Boston College is still capable of winning this game at home thanks to a very strong defense that has yielded just 2.9 yppl in 3 games, including allowing just 3.4 yppl to a better than average Clemson attack last week.

Wake has a better than average offense with Riley Skinner looking like he may have his best season yet as a 4 year starter. Skinner has averaged 7.4 yards per pass play and the Demon Deacons rate at 0.4 yppl better than average offensively so far.

The defenses have the advantage in this game and my ratings favor Wake by 2 points while the Demon Deacons apply to a solid 30-7 ATS game 4 situation.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons enter their ninth year with Jim Grobe as the head coach and look to appear in their fourth straight bowl game. While most are not picking the Deacons to win the Atlantic Division, they will no doubt be a thorn in many a ACC team's side. If you think Wake is all coaching just look back to the NFL Draft last April and you saw four Deacs drafted. To get a better look at Wake, I talked with Martin at Blogger So Dear.

Last year Wake had a running back by committee with Brandon Pendergrass and Josh Adams leading the way. Who do you see as the primary ball carrier this year or will Jim Grobe alternate carries?

I think they will split series. Grobe trusts both Pendergrass and Adams, but he also likes to roll the dice and it wouldn't surprise me if Kevin Harris got a bunch of carries too. Grobe seemed to like what he saw out of Harris from a toughness perspective near the end of last season. Needless to say, there will be plenty of carries to go around as Wake should be using the ground game a lot more this season.

Riley Skinner enters his Senior season at Wake. What do you think the Jacksonville, FL native needs to do to become an elite QB?

I think he is already an elite quarterback. He has led Wake to three straight bowl games, including two wins and an Orange Bowl appearance. This season will be a new test for him as the offense will be the focal point this year as opposed to defense the last few seasons. But regardless, Skinner is a special quarterback for this program and he isn't a secret anymore as he was voted to the preseason ACC first team.

Two of the top three receivers are gone including All-ACC performer DJ Boldin. Who do you see stepping up here as a pass catcher for Skinner?

I definitely see Chris Givens in the mix, as well as Jordan and Marshall Williams and Devon Brown. This is a very deep position for Wake this year; these are some of the best athletes Grobe has ever brought into Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons have the 4th most starts back on the offensive line in FBS. Do you think this experience can regain the momentum the running game in Grobe's early years?

I do. The line was thrown into the fire last year and some guys had to shift around to fill holes due to injuries. Because of this though, I feel like the experience will translate to success this season. The line seems healthy, confident and ready to make the running game a strength again like Grobe teams of the past.

The defense lost their top five tacklers from a year ago. Will the defense need the offense to carry them early on to win games?

It's no secret that losing Stanley Arnoux, Chip Vaughn, AC [Aaron Curry], KP [Kevin Patterson] and Phonz [Alphonso Smith] will hurt the defense. That said, the offense returns an awful lot outside of losing DJ Boldin (Anquan's brother). As a unit, in addition to the news that the team will go back to running their tried and true offense, they should be a real threat to put up big numbers.

It may take a little while to get the defense clicking, but there are defensive standouts-especially on the line-and if they step up, the defense could continue to be a strong point of this team.

The loss of 1st Round Draft Pick LB Aaron Curry will certainly be felt. Who is the top choice to step and replace Curry at the LB position as a tackler and team leader?

From a team leader perspective, there's no question that DT John Russell is a player to watch, as are Boo Robinson and Brandon Ghee. From a linebacker standpoint, there's no real way to "replace" Aaron Curry, but look out for Hunter Haynes and Matt Woodlief.

Wake also lost one of the best kickers in the country in Sam Swank? Is Shane Popham going to handle both kicking duties and how much of a drop off do you see in special teams?

Shane was thrown into a very difficult situation last year. Swank was so consistent and so good for so long, there's no way that Popham would have been ready to shoulder the load right away like he was expected to. That trial by fire will help him significantly this year as he earned experience and poise. Shane will not have to do it all, Wake brought in a stud punter in Jimmy Newman, and they may have soccer player Cline Beam kick off.

That said, special teams was not a strength last year, and it is definitely something to watch; there's no way that Jim Grobe was happy with how special teams played and there is no question that he will spend extra time addressing that.

We may not be as familiar with Wake's top recruits, but we know they will produce. Who are the top redshirt freshman that could make a big impact (since I know Grobe likes to redshirt true freshman)?

There are a few. Keep an eye out for Scott Betros, Ramon Booi, Terence Davis, Chris Givens and Kenny Okoro. The thing about losing a lot is that young guys get a chance to step right in, which can be good or bad obviously, but with the extra year from the red shirt under their belts, these guys will unquestionably be ready and asked to make a significant impact.

Wake has played Navy four times in the last three seasons and won five of the last six meetings. This year the Deacs also play Georgia Tech. What do you attribute Wake's success against Paul Johnson's offense to and do you think Wake can win both games this year?

Wake had a tough time figuring out Navy's offense last year for whatever reason and that loss was one the Deacs had a tough time stomaching all year. That was addressed fairly well in the bowl game win against Navy the second time around. I think the Deacs are able to understand the triple option so well because Coach Grobe used to run it at Air Force when he coached there. There are times when Wake's philosophy is fairly similar; against Miami last year Wake only threw eight passes as opposed to 52 rushing attempts.

Paul Johnson does a heck of a job over at Tech and Dwyer is one of the best RBs in the country, so it is going to be a heck of a challenge playing the Yellow Jackets. I definitely think Wake will be ready for both games and should beat Navy, but beating GT is going to be really tough.

Will Wake beat FSU for a fourth straight year?

Of course I hope so, but that's a really tough question. FSU is much improved and they always have a ton of athletes. If the 'Noles can stay together as a unit this year, they will be a force to be reckoned with. By the time the two play each other in November, we will know a lot more and will be able to judge exactly where both teams stand and I would really like to see the game be a deciding factor in the Atlantic Division.

It is just too hard to make that call right now. The Atlantic and the ACC in general are a crap shoot and it doesn't help that FSU has been so bipolar the last few years.

My Thoughts on Wake Forest...
It is really amazing when you look at Grobe has done in his nine years at one the smallest FBS schools; Grobe is near the top of my ACC coaches list. He will do without top talent again this year instead relying on solid QB play, taking care of the football, and and a rebuilt defense. QB Riley Skinner is a senior and he hopes to get increase help from the running game where the two top rushers are back back. Like the blogger mentioned, Wake will need someone to step up in the passing game. The biggest plus for Wake is 119 career starts returning on the line, second most in FBS.

Defensively, it will be very tough to replace guys like Curry and Smith, but an experienced d-line could help the rest of the unit big time. Don't underestimate the loss of Sam Swank who was Wake's all time scoring leader. Wake benefited from a +17 turnover margin last year that they will need to replicate again if they want to challenge for the ACC title. I see Wake Forest getting back to another bowl this year.

My Prediction...
7-5, 4-4, Bowl Game

Best Case Scenario: 8-4
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7

Vegas Odds:
BCS Championship 100/1
ACC Championship 15/1 (8th)
Win Total - 7

Thanks again to Blogger So Dear for their insight. You can check their updates on the right hand of the page here.

What are your thoughts on Wake Forest? Can they make another run to the ACC Championship or does the loss of talent finally catch up with them?