Italy (National Football)

After both teams competed in qualifying matches for Euro 2016 earlier this week, Italy and Portugal will wrap up their summer 2014-15 international slates with a neutral-ground friendly on Tuesday.

Date: Tuesday June 16

Time: 8:30 local time, 7:30 BST, 2:30 EDT

Venue: Stade de Geneve, Geneva, Switzerland

TV Info: beIN Sports (U.S.)

Live Stream: beIN Sports Connect (U.S.)

Preamble

Both teams matched up over the weekend in Euro qualifying. The Azzurri played out a 1-1 draw against Croatia in an empty stadium in Split, but they left thinking they should have had more. The Azzurri had a goal incorrectly ruled out for offside, and Croatia capitalized to score themselves seconds later.

Antonio Candreva's penalty evened up the score and Italy had the better of the second period, leaving the team to wonder what might have been if Martin Atkinson's crew had gotten the call right.

As it stands the Italians stand second in the group, although the Croatians now face an uncertain future in the competition after the appearance of a swastika on the field in Split on Friday.

Portugal managed to win their qualifier on Saturday, but it was a more nervy game than a match against Armenia should have been. A Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick provided all the scoring, but it was the home team that opened the scoring and the last 18 minutes were nervy after Armenia snagged a goal on a goal-line scrum.

This game is going to be useful for both teams to test things out. For the Italians, it will be an opportunity for Antonio Conte to find the best fits for the new-look 4-3-3 he used on Friday. For Portugal, the goal will be to find something—anything—that can be a viable Plan B if Cristiano Ronaldo—who, as reported by Football Italia, has been allowed to leave the team and start his summer vacation early—fails to fire in a competitive game.

Form Lines

Italy	Portugal
D 1-1 @ Croatia	W 3-2 @ Armenia
D 1-1 vs England*	L 2-0 vs Cape Verde*
D 2-2 @ Bulgaria	W 2-1 vs Serbia
W 1-0 vs Albania*	W 1-0 vs Argentina**
D 1-1 vs Croatia	W 1-0 vs Armenia

 *Friendly

**Neutral site friendly

Predicted Lineups

Italy (4-3-3)	Portugal
Sirigu	Beto
De Sciglio  Moretti  Ranocchia  Pasqual	Cedric  Carrico  Fonte  Eliseu
Bertolacci  Soriano  Parolo	Quaresma  Silva  Pereira  Pizzi  Vieirinha
Vasquez  Immobile  Sansone	Eder

Players to Watch

Italy is going to deploy some less experienced players in this matchup, and Franco Vazquez is one such player. The Argentinian-born Italy international received his first cap in the team's March friendly against England and has been playing on the right side of Conte's new attacking trident in training.

It may be a departure from the norm—he spent the majority of his time as an attacking midfielder at Palermo this year—but he seems to be taking to it well.  At a press conference on Sunday (h/t Football Italia) he relished the fact that he can cut in from the right and shoot with his natural left foot.

If he performs well, he can earn himself some more time in Conte's attacking setup—and silence a few more of the critics who decry the use of oriundi in the national squad.

Portugal also has a one-cap player who deserves attention.  Monaco's Bernardo Silva garnered some attention during the principality side's run to the quarterfinal of the Champions League. A lively runner who scored nine times and added four assists in all competitions, Silva may soon be one of Europe's hottest attacking names. If there's a potential option No. 2 to CR7, he may be it.

Key Matchup

Ciro Immobile has just suffered through a terrible season at Borussia Dortmund, scoring only three times in the Bundesliga, although he did put in four in the Champions League.

The striker has nonetheless been a fixture in the Italian setup since Antonio Conte took over the team after the World Cup. He came out like gangbusters, scoring in his first game under the new CT against the Netherlands.

Immobile will likely start in the center of the new 4-3-3, a good role for him. He'll be looking to make an impression on potential suitors if he is to make a move away from the Westfaldenstadion this summer.

Looking to check him will likely be some of Portugal's less experienced defenders. Jose Fonte was a revelation this year at Southampton, averaging (according to WhoScored.com) 2.1 tackles and 3.2 interceptions per match. He will likely be tasked with making sure the 25-year-old Immobile can't use this international break as a tonic after a rough season.

The Italy we saw in Friday's Euro 2016 qualifier against Croatia certainly wasn't the crisp, active side seen at the beginning of Antonio Conte's reign as CT.

Conte's team lacked the likes of Marco Verratti, Giorgio Chiellini and Daniele De Rossi, and it showed in their play.  Those injured players' replacements were consistently just off the pace.  The passes were just a little too far or too short, the runs were just a little bit overplayed, and, as the game progressed, the energy level fell off.

That said, the Azzurri will leave Split having a legitimate claim that all three points—and first place in the group—should have been theirs.

The sequence in question came in the 10th minute.  Right-back Lorenzo De Silvestri surged forward and slipped a ball into the box that Graziano Pelle managed to flip back to AC Milan winger Stephan El Shaarawy, who tipped the ball cooly into the net.  But his celebrations were abruptly ended when he noticed the assistant holding up his flag.

It's impossible to see how any infraction could have been seen.  Replays showed El Shaarawy was comfortably onside on both the initial cross and after Pelle's flick.  The decision absolutely beggared belief.

Even more puzzling was the fact that referee Martin Atkinson allowed play to begin so quickly.  The Croatians capitalized on several Italians being out of position to argue the call, and Mario Mandzukic easily tucked a tap-in past Gianluigi Buffon to give the Vatreni a 1-0 lead, when the scoreline should have been flipped.

To their credit, the Italians responded well.  They started earning free-kicks in dangerous positions and got into the Croatian box with consistency.

In the 32nd minute the equalizer nearly came.  Claudio Marchisio made an impressive run down the left-hand channel and released Pelle deep into the box.  The Southampton man pulled the ball back for El Shaarawy, but the rust clearly showed on the youngster as he scuffed his effort directly at Danijel Subasic.

Italy's deserved goal came four minutes later.  Andrea Pirlo whipped in yet another free-kick in a dangerous spot, and this time Mario Mandzukic threw his hand in front of Pelle's forehead as it arrived for the striker to turn in.  

Atkinson rightly pointed to the spot, and Antonio Candreva turned Subasic in knots.  His slow run-up made Subasic commit to his left before he even arrived at the ball, and the Lazio man cheekily chipped it by to knot the score.

As the half drew to a close, the Azzurri had chances to turn the game completely on its head, but Pelle made hashes of them both, overrunning Pirlo's fantastic free-kick delivery and then slamming a shot straight at Subasic in the first minute of stoppage time, when El Shaarawy was available for a tap-in at the far post.

Bad news accompanied the start of the second half.  Buffon, who had sustained a cut on the knee in the first half, was forced from the field when efforts to stop the bleeding failed.  Salvatore Sirigu is a more-than-capable understudy, but the injury's real impact was tactical.

Conte had already been forced to use a substitution in the first half, when De Silvestri suffered what looked like a severe ankle injury.  Buffon being forced from the field left him with a single move if he wanted to influence the game in the second half.

The second half turned into a limp affair.  There were chances all over.  El Shaarawy had the chance to send Claudio Marchisio straight through the channel on a strong run six minutes into the half, but his pass didn't have enough to get through the defenders in front of him.

With 68 minutes on the clock, Candreva absolutely left Danijel Pranjic in the dust by tipping the ball up the byline and detouring out of bounds to reclaim the ball.  His cross was dropped back for Pirlo who fired the ball just too high.

Two minutes later, another fantastic display from the Lazio man set up Marco Parolo at point-blank range, but rather than power it into the net, he tried to shape it and only managed a tame ball straight at Subasic.

From there the game ramped down.  Ivan Perisic flashed a 30-yard drive wide of Sirigu's post, but otherwise PSG's No. 1 had hardly anything to do in the back.  Italy defended well and had the better game, but with only one change left, Conte left nothing to chance and withdrew El Shaarawy for Andrea Ranocchia with 10 minutes left, content to leave the table at the status quo rather than risk defeat.

It's worth wondering whether Conte, given his notorious drive to win, would have made such a pragmatic decision if he had had more than one substitution left.  The injuries in the back severely limited his ability to influence things in the front, and in the end he decided to play safe rather than beef up the attack with the likes of Manolo Gabbiadini.  In the end it was likely a good decision, but one hopes it won't haunt Italy later.

This is certainly not the result the Italians hoped for.  With the Stadion Poljud empty after UEFA punished the Croatians for racist chants in their last home fixture, it was hoped that the team could take advantage and claim all three points.  

As it stands now, though, the Croatians still carry a two-point lead in Group H, and the Italians are still holding off Norway—who played out a scoreless draw against Azerbaijan—for the second automatic qualifying spot.

The Azzurri certainly weren't without fault in this game.  The selection of Davide Astori ahead of Ranocchia in the center of defense turned out to be less than inspired.  He gave away a cheap penalty after only six minutes and was lucky to see Buffon bail him out by meeting Mandzukic's poor shot with an authoritative parry that allowed his teammates to clear.

Also off the pace was Pelle, whose lack of playing time at Southampton showed in his mistimed runs and shoddy passing.  He was particularly disappointing as a target man on set pieces.  It was clear how much Chiellini was missed, both in defense and as a target on free-kicks.

There were some impressive performances.  Candreva was imperious as a winger in Conte's new-loook 4-3-3, which really should be the default for the Italians going forward.  Also acquitting himself well was Matteo Darmian, who made almost a half-dozen timely interventions to stop runs and block crosses.  The hype surrounding the young full-back is well-deserved.

Without De Rossi in midfield, the team looked toothless.  Parolo was practically nonexistent, and Marchisio had his moments but looked a bit tired after a long season with Juventus.

On that note, several players on both sides faded badly as time went on, and the last five to 10 minutes of the match were played at almost a walking pace.  UEFA needs to rethink their decision to stage qualifiers so close to the end of the season, because it very obviously affected the quality of the game as the clocked ticked down.

But for all their inadequacies in this game, the fact of the matter is that Mandzukic's goal should never have happened, because El Shaarawy's seconds before should not have been disallowed.  Croatia will head into the next round of qualifiers in the group's driver's seat, but based on what was seen on the field, they shouldn't be.

Atkinson's crew did not acquit themselves well in that sequence, and on the balance of the game, had they gotten the call right, Italy, for all their faults, looked good enough for three points.  It remains to be seen how much that call will affect France's race—and the seeding for World Cup qualification, which will be determined in the coming months.

Italy will certainly look at this as an opportunity lost—and perhaps one taken away.

Palermo's Italian centre-forward Andrea Belotti, 21, is next in line to replace Paulo Dybala. 

Having watched Palermo back Dybala during his struggles, Belotti will need to receive the same leeway if he is to fulfil his potential.

He has already shown his class for Italy's Under-21s and will look to carry his form in qualifying into this summer's European Under-21 Championship.

Arrivederci

Entering this season, Dybala was one of Italy's biggest transfer flops.

Per Brian Homewood at Reuters: "Argentine teenager Paulo Dybala, heralded by [Palermo] president Maurizio Zamparini as 'the new Sergio Aguero,' managed a disappointing three goals in the whole campaign."

Per Dan Riccio at Sports Net: "Paulo Dybala was dubbed by Zamaparini as 'the new Aguero.' The Palermo owner obviously did not help matters putting that kind of pressure on the youngster."

Zamparini looked like a fool having gleefully grinned at securing Dybala's signature.

Signed from Instituto for €11.9 million/£9.3 million in 2012, Dybala was presented as a transfer coup from Zamparini.

"We have got Paulo Dybala," Zamparini said, per Sky (h/t Football Italia). "We snatched him from the clutches of Inter Milan, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea."

Despite Zamparini's public-relations offensive, Dybala's market value at the time was €2 million/£1.6 million meaning Palermo overpaid by €9.9 million/£7.7 million.

Zamparini's pertinacious belief that Dybala would overcome a two-year slump has paid dividends.

• 2014/15 season: Scored 13 goals in 2,965 minutes over 34 Serie A games.
• 2013/14 season: Scored five goals in 1,918 minutes over 28 Serie B games.
• 2012/13 season: Scored three goals in 1,257 minutes over 27 Serie A games.

Excluding Dybala's passing, there are concerns statistically.

• 30.8 per cent of Dybala's goals were created by Franco Vazquez. Will Dybala be as effective without Vazquez?
• Dybala's 31.6 per cent shooting accuracy and 9.0 shots per goal are inefficient. He is a volume-shooter.
• 47 footballers from the Bundesliga, Eredivisie, La Liga, Ligue 1, Premier League and Serie A outscored Dybala.

Going to the other side of the spectrum and judging Dybala only by the eye-test provides context to Zamparini's tunnel vision.

Amid the criticism of Palermo's investment and Dybala's lack of production, he showed a complete attacking skill set in training: a scorer, creator, dribbler and facilitator.

Instead of selling Dybala for a loss, Zamparini waited patiently (two seasons!) for his version of Aguero to transition from training star to the real deal.

This is why Zamparini felt betrayed when Dybala tried to enforce his leverage over Palermo.

"I was told that Dybala would no longer sign [an extension] and that he now wanted up to €15 million/£11 million in wages. No way," Zamparini said, per Tuttosport (h/t Sky Sports). "I had treated him like a son."

Holding out, Zamparini negotiated an advantageous transfer deal for Palermo upon selling Dybala to Juventus, per David Amoyal at Gianluca Di Marzio's website:

• Juventus will pay Palermo €28 million/£20.6 million plus €8 million/£5.9 million in potential bonuses.
• Palermo acquire full ownership of Edoardo Goldaniga and a "second [Juventus asset] will be chosen later on." That player is rumoured to be Eric Lanini, per Tuttosport (h/t Football Italia).

The Successor 

Locking eyes momentarily with Belotti, Davide Astori shifted his attention to the unmarked Andrea Rispoli.

By the time Vazquez delivered a low left-footed cross, Belotti was by himself on the far post.

Poking the ball past Lukasz Skorupski while Astori nervously appealed for offside to no avail, Belotti celebrated by raising his hand to his head, mimicking a rooster.

Belotti's moniker is the rooster, an inside joke between his friends.

Ending a 16-game run without a Serie A goal, Belotti was alert till the end, unlike Astori.

Scoring a 93rd-minute winner in Palermo's 2-1 victory over Roma is a testament to Belotti's never-give-up attitude.

Having grafted at AlbinoLeffe, Belotti has tasted what it is like to slog in modest surroundings, a la Christian Vieri, who toiled at Pisa, Ravenna and Venezia.

"I can't tell you why I am now scoring so many goals," Vieri said, per Jeff Powell at the Daily Mail. "It is a mystery which makes me happy. [The goals] just keep coming."

Raised in Australia, Vieri was an ugly duckling at Marconi Stallions, according to then U15 manager Rick Chiellini, per Martin Flanagan at the Age:

[Christian was] a big kid who appeared uncoordinated and had a funny way of running, arms all over the place, head shifting about.

The inevitable comparisons were made that he was nothing like his father, the consummately skilful Roberto Vieri.

"They almost ridiculed [Christian]," says Rick. "I think it made him more determined."

When then-Italian national team manager Cesare Maldini granted Vieri his international debut in 1997, he was rated by the veteran Gianfranco Zola.

"Christian's tactical awareness has surprised me," Zola said, per the Independent. "I've given him just one piece of advice, and that is to play according to his instinct."

Vieri would go on to become one of the most lucrative footballers of his generation, and Zola's advice is also applicable to Belotti.

Discarded by Atalanta, Belotti has forged his own path.

"I did a trial but got immediately turned down [by Atalanta]," Belotti said, per James Horncastle at WhoScored. "It's a bit of a shame I never played for the Nerazzurro."

Napoli then rejected Belotti, a fact his agent Sergio Lancini opportunely pointed out.

"[Belotti scored] two goals against Napoli, one of the clubs that did not believe in his abilities," Lancini said, per Calcio Mercato (h/t Football Italia). "Palermo deserve credit for trusting him and taking advantage of AlbinoLeffe's [financial] difficulties."

• Dybala | Instituto → Palermo: €11.9 million/£9.3 million (18 years old; 2012).
• Belotti | AlbinoLeffe → Palermo: €5.5 million/£4.4 million (20 years old; 2014).

Palermo's €5.5 million/£4.4 million bet on Belotti is not panning out.

He scored six goals in 1,337 minutes over 38 Serie A games this season, which is uneconomical and he was outscored by Kamil Glik, who recorded seven goals for Torino as a centre-back.

Given that Palermo continued to support Dybala after he flunked in back-to-back seasons, Belotti must receive the same encouragement.

Serie A 2014/15	Belotti	Dybala
Starting % [1]	23.7	100
Minutes Per Game	35.2	87.2
Goals/Games	6/38	13/34
Headed Goals	2	0
Headers Won Per 90	2.2	0.5
Shots Per Goal	7.3	9
Shooting Accuracy %	43.2	31.6

^{[1] games involved in.} 

Belotti is a bigger aerial threat, has better shooting form and his shot selection is more proficient than Dybala.

During the 2013/14 Serie B season, Belotti (10 goals) doubled Dybala's output (five goals).

Palermo manager Giuseppe Iachini "is working towards the future" post-Dybala, per Sky (h/t Press Association Sport via ESPN FC).

That could be a reference to Iachini combining Vazquez's genius with Belotti's blue-collar style.

Crucial to Dybala's revival, Vazquez can play a major role in Belotti turning his career around next season.

"Vazquez is a fundamental player for us," Zamparini said, per Rai GR Parlamento (h/t Mark Doyle at Goal). "We're going to build a team around [him]."

A 6'2" and 179-pound No. 10, Vazquez opens up play with his audacious passing and gliding runs.

Before going on holidays, Belotti has a chance to boost his confidence at the UEFA European Under-21 Championship.

Scoring six goals in nine games en route to qualifying for the Euro U-21s, Belotti is part of the Azzurri's outlook.

Palermo might have Italy's future No. 9 in Belotti if they commit to him as Dybala's replacement.

The #2015EuropeanChampionship is approaching. Training camp in Appiano Gentile is under way.-->http://t.co/ujMT79s08B pic.twitter.com/7AgPhF0poC

— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) June 3, 2015

+allanjiang.

When not specified, statistics via WhoScored. 

A great start to Italy's Euro 2016 qualifier against Bulgaria came to a screeching halt, thanks to some very un-Italian mistakes.

After being buffeted by the reaction to the strange saga of Claudio Marchisio's right knee, there were questions as to whether the Italians would come in distracted.  The Juventus player's absence was certainly felt in midfield, where replacement Andrea Bertolacci was invisible for the first half.

The rest of the team was much the same from Antonio Conte's earlier squads in qualifying.  The starting strike partnership of Ciro Immobile and Simone Zaza remained the same.  Their contribution, however, was a far cry from what they supplied in the fall.

Zaza, on a cold streak with Sassuolo, was frequently outmuscled in the penalty area and didn't deliver the right balls when in possession outside the box.  His pressure on a loose ball led to the early own goal, but his contribution was negligible thereafter.

It's hard to imagine anyone looking worse, but Immobile managed it.  Two minutes after the Azzurri went down, he had a massive chance to put the match back on terms from a Marco Verratti free-kick.  

It was easier to score, but he somehow fizzed his header wide.  In the 69th minute he did well to skip through a pair of defenders in the box but only managed to put the ball a few inches to the side of Nikolay Mihaylov.  Bertolacci's follow-up was woeful.

The Bulgarians' shock lead came from two goals in a six-minute stretch early in the first half.  Both came gift-wrapped thanks to uncharacteristic individual errors committed by the vaunted Juventus players that make up the Azzurri's backbone.

The first came in the 11th minute when Leonardo Bonucci was caught slightly higher up the field than he should have been and then compounded his error by diving in to intercept a pass that he was never going to reach.

Ivelyn Popov gratefully accepted the gift and buried an unstoppable shot past Salvatore Sirigu, who was deputizing in goal for the flu-striken Gianluigi Buffon.

Six minutes later the Bulgarians were in position to pull out a shock when Zaza mishandled a pass in the center circle.  The Bulgarians duly counterattacked, making use of acres of space to get into position to cross.

Andrea Barzagli was the last man to the striker but was never going to get in front of him.  The smart thing to do would have been to hang back and play Ilian Micanski offside.  Instead, the veteran tried to go through his back, and the Karlsruhe man sent an easy header past a stranded Sirigu and into the back of the net to give his country a 2-1 lead.

Italy had the better of the chances from then on.  Immobile's howler was only the beginning.  Zaza sent more than one shot into the back of a Bulgarian defender, and Matteo Darmian had a stinging shot deflected for a corner right on the stroke of half-time.

Conte has a reputation for saving his substitutions until very late in the game, but here he took fairly quick measures to carve out the rot.  Eder took the place of Zaza 13 minutes into the second half, and Bertolacci followed him to the bench in the 72nd minute.  Roberto Soriano had a much more positive effect on the game, and Italy began to come forward in waves, sending balls in toward a shaky-looking Mihaylov.

After a 77th-minute switch of Manolo Gabbiadini for Luca Antonelli, that surge became a siege, and the Bulgarians were pinned back hard in their own half.  Giorgio Chiellini—who has already scored on a pair of headers in qualifying, fizzed one over from a good corner delivery.

With eight minutes left, it was one of Conte's controversial oriundi selections that made the difference.  Eder—born in Brazil but with Italian grandparents—received a pass on the edge of the box and curled a delicious strike past Mihaylov and into the side of the goal for a crucial equalizer.

With the scores level, the Azzurri smelled blood, but Eder's effort was the exception rather than the rule for Conte's strike force.  A minute later Chiellini flicked a corner into Immobile's path, but the former Capocannoniere couldn't make contact.

Less than a minute later Immobile slipped a ball to Gabbiadini, who controlled, turned and fired.  Conte was practically already celebrating when the ball sizzled a ball's width wide of the post.

This was a game that Italy should have controlled from the get-go.  They defended well.  Aside from the chances gifted them by Bonucci, Zaza and Barzagli the Bulgarians did not manufacture any clear-cut opportunities at Sirigu's goal and were limited to more speculative efforts.

On the other end the Azzurri dominated possession, particularly in the second half.  Considering the sitters missed by Immobile and Gabbiadini they should have had at least four goals—maybe more, if they had made more of an innumerable number of half-chances created throughout the game.

Ultimately, the game finished on the same score as it did two years ago when Italy travelled to Sofia for World Cup qualifying—2-2.  It was a game that should teach Conte a few lessons—most notably about the strike partnership that he's relied on thus far in his tenure.

Recent form should have told Conte that Immobile and Zaza might have been shaky, as indeed they proved. With players such as Gabbiadini and Eder in far better form, he should have looked elsewhere to tip his spear.

It also may be time to reconsider the 3-5-2 that carried Conte so far with Juventus.  The coach proved supremely adaptable in his early days at Juve before the makeup of the squad shoehorned him into the 3-5-2 for the final two years of his time there.  Relying on it early on in his tenure is understandable, particularly with the entirety of the defense he had at Juve available to him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIXijLmUG5c

With the pick of Italy now available to him, Conte should consider a different shape to inject fresh ideas. Gabbiadini has proven impressive on the right wing, and young players such as Domenico Berardi could prove ideal to pair with him.  Every team needs flexibility, especially on the national level.  He should use the friendly against England as an experimentation ground.

The errors made in the back were uncharacteristic and unlikely to be repeated.  The lack of finishing at the other end, however, is a concern that Conte is going to have to address going forward.  Giuseppe Rossi's return from injury may make a difference there, but in his absence Conte may have to dig into the youth ranks for the likes of Berardi or Andrea Belotti.

The lack of clinical finishing has been a concern over the last few international breaks.  It's the biggest problem Conte currently faces and the one he must rectify if Italy is to get to the Euros as a top seed.

Italy travel to Sofia on Saturday evening, taking on Bulgaria in their latest qualifying match, as the 2016 European Championships draw ever closer. On the surface, it should be a straightforward encounter for Antonio Conte’s men, with almost every statistic tilting in their favour before the encounter at the Vasil Levski National Stadium gets underway.

Having taken 10 points from their opening four games, the Azzurri currently sit atop of Group H alongside Croatia and have yet to lose since the former Juventus coach took over from Cesare Prandelli. Yet the team has struggled to truly impress thus far, failing to click in the way they previously had, and the new boss will hope this current international break finally see things fall into place.

They will have to cope without the injured Andrea Pirlo, which should mean Marco Verratti is handed the keys to the midfield, and Italy will also hope to overcome the fact several of their players are in poor form. The likes of Alessio Cerci, Ciro Immobile and Graziano Pelle have endured barren spells of late, while Simone Zaza has admitted rumours of a move during the January transfer window affected his own play.

Ivaylo Petev has problems of his own however, with his team having recorded just a solitary win over Azerbaijan in their qualifying campaign thus far. They have taken just four points from the same number of matches and will be desperately hoping to steal all three points in front of their home fans if they are to have any chance of achieving qualification to next summer’s tournament.

Date: Saturday, March 28

Time: 8:45 pm CET (7:45 pm GMT / 3:45 pm EDT)

Venue:Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sofia

TV Info: RAI (Italy) Sky Sports 5 (U.K.)

Live Stream: SkyGo

Form Lines

Last five results:

Norway 0-2 Italy	Azerbaijan 1-2 Bulgaria
Italy 2-1 Azerbaijan	Bulgaria 0-1 Croatia
Malta 0-1 Italy	Norway 2-1 Bulgaria
Italy 1-1 Croatia	Bulgaria 1-1 Malta
Italy 1-0 Albania	Romania 0-0 Bulgaria

Predicted Line-ups

Bulgaria (4-2-3-1):Stoyanov; Terziev, Minev, Bodurov, Manolev; Milanov, Dyakov; Aleksandrov, Popov, Zlatinski; Galabinov

Italy (3-5-2): Buffon; Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini; Darmian, Parolo, Verratti, Candreva, Antonelli; Immobile, Zaza

Key Battle

Perhaps the one man who can cause problems for Italy is Ivelin Popov, the Kuban Krasnodar winger who has already registered five goals and three assists in the Russian Premier League this season. The 27-year-old has netted eight times in his 51 international caps, although he last struck against Armenia back in October 2013.

The task of stopping him is likely to fall to Torino’s Matteo Darmian, voted Italy’s Player of the Year for 2014 after being one of the only Azzurri stars to emerge from last summer’s World Cup with his reputation intact. The 25-year-old has quickly established himself as first-choice under Conte, able to play on either flank and gaining invaluable experience from his club’s run in the Europa League this term.

Player to Watch

While that clash will be important, perhaps the key figure Saturday could be Verratti, the young midfielder likely to be asked to control the side from Pirlo’s usual role. The Paris Saint-Germain star has earned just 10 caps for Italy, and he has been forced to look on as more experienced players take up places in the centre of the pitch.

That could all change here, and the 22-year-old must seize that opportunity, as he is unlikely to receive a second invitation from a coach like Conte. Verratti has been superb and consistent for the French side this term, weighing in with two goals and five assists in the current campaign.

His passing has been as accurate as ever, with only three players—Xabi Alonso, Yaya Toure and David Alaba—averaging more than his 87 attempts per game, according to WhoScored.com. Connecting with 91.2 percent of those, Italy will be looking to Verratti to dictate the play in Sofia.

Odds (via Odds Shark)

Home win: 100/161

Away win: 4/1

Draw: 3/1

Skillful though he might be, Alberto Aquilani does not deserve to be making any more appearances in the Azzurri shirt. 

The Fiorentina player has been given enough chances to prove himself at international level, but at the age of 30, it is no longer worth waiting for him to produce the goods with consistency for his country.

Against Albania in Italy's most recent friendly, Aquilani flittered in and out of the game without doing anything of magnitude.

And so it has often been with him.

While he has played a handful of fine games in national team colours, those standout matches have been few and far between.

As he has often shown at club level, Aquilani should be considered a "luxury" player who might shine when surrounded by a brilliant team but rarely takes charge of a match of his own accord.

As a youngster at Roma, high hopes were held for Aquilani. Perhaps if he had stayed in the Italian capital for another few years he would have developed into a fantastic footballer, but an ill-fated move to Liverpool and frequent injury troubles altered his trajectory.

There have been some periods of good form since, but he has never really fulfilled his potential.

The Albania match was a perfect opportunity for many fringe Azzurri players, like Aquilani, to put their hands up for regular starting berths. 

Some, such as Sebastian Giovinco, Alessio Cerci and goalscorer Stefano Okaka, took their opportunity well by putting in impressive performances.

Others, like goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu, striker Mattia Destro and Aquilani himself, will feel they bombed their chance.

The Rome-born midfielder displayed the occasional nice touch or incisive pass, but overall he failed to dominate the centre of the pitch against a fairly weak opposition midfield.

Defensively he was a liability, as has regularly been the case throughout his career. 

If you are Andrea Pirlo, creating numerous chances for team-mates and spraying passes around the field with deadly accuracy, some slackness in defence can be forgiven. 

But Aquilani is no Pirlo. He does not offer enough creativity to make up for his defensive shortcomings.

Azzurri midfield stalwarts such as Daniele De Rossi and Claudio Marchisio have shown time and time again they have the drive, determination and talent to energise the side, and relative newcomers like Antonio Candreva and Cerci look like they will carry the team forward in the years to come.

As Antonio Conte attempts to forge Italy into an international force once again, there is no room for lightweights in the squad.

After 38 games for Italy, it might be time to give up on Aquilani.

Mario Balotelli is a lost cause to the Italian national team after Azzurri manager Antonio Conte insisted he hasn't got time to shepherd the striker into realising his potential.

In his current state, it would seem the Liverpool striker is out of the international picture, having failed to convince Conte he's deserving of a place in the squad, per Metro's Massimo Marioni:

I’m trying to save a product that is going extinct, is that clear? Balotelli? With all the problems we have, why are we still talking about him? I’m not so arrogant as to claim that I’m different from the great coaches, but the past tells us that they failed to change Balotelli. It’ll be up to the player, but I don’t have much time and I need certain things.

Having been dropped in the wake of Italy's World Cup disappointment, Balotelli was recently recalled to the national team but had to pull out after picking up a hamstring injury in training.

The 24-year-old moved back to the Premier League this past summer but has failed to reign as triumphantly on Merseyside as he did in Manchester, and he is yet to score in the league this season.

It doesn't help Balotelli's case that several others in the Italy squad are showing stronger candidacy to start up front. In the likes of Ciro Immobile, Graziano Pelle, Mattia Destro and Simone Zaza, there are other encouraging prospects coming into the setup.

David Lynch of the Manchester Evening News has questioned the impact of Liverpool's summer signings, Balotelli being one of them. He also hinted Liverpool may have relied more than some thought on Luis Suarez:

@plmrgn It's just been as simple as a failure of personnel in my eyes. Balotelli, Lovren needed to work in Sturridge absence. Not even close

— David Lynch (@DavidLynchMEN) November 18, 2014

@plmrgn It's looking obvious now who elevated them. Literally all the things people said about one-man team were true. Mad.

— David Lynch (@DavidLynchMEN) November 19, 2014

Conte's frustrations may be caused as much by Balotelli's mental attributes as they are by a lack of on-pitch production, though. Granted, his form of late has been arguably the weakest of his career but motivation and attitude concerns have always been his main worry.

Since arriving at Anfield, Balotelli has been relatively well-behaved by his own standards. He was recently subject to a police investigation for allegedly threatening a woman who took a picture of his car, but the Mirror's Laura Connor reported it was dropped last month.

Nevertheless, Conte sees the positives of Balotelli's omission to outweigh the negatives. The former Juventus mastermind is willing to sacrifice his ability for the good of what he sees might be a brighter Azzurri future.

Should Balotelli rediscover his scoring touch and go on to achieve on Merseyside what the Kop have been hoping he might, Conte will be forced to revise his tack.

However, for now, it would seem the temperamental talent remains out of his manager's view, leaving Brendan Rodgers to assume the role of his sole caretaker.

Italy hosted Albania on Tuesday evening just two days after the Azzurri’s most recent Euro 2016 qualifier, winning 1-0.

Coach Antonio Conte has largely called upon the same proven core players over his first few months in charge, regularly relying on some international stalwarts. But the former Juventus boss had agreed to release many of these stars after Sunday’s encounter, opting to call almost an entirely new squad to face Albania.

The Italian FA had switched the game to Genoa, hoping the presence of the Azzurri—and their financial input—would provide a boost for the flood-hit region.

Storms devastated the area last month per ANSA, and Conte was also prompted to add a number of players from the city’s two clubs. With no fewer than eight names from Genoa and Sampdoria, the friendly presented Antonio Conte with a chance to test some unfamiliar faces.

While many of those are unlikely to earn regular spots within the Italy setup, the same cannot be said of Salvatore Sirigu, a longstanding member of the squad. The Paris Saint-Germain keeper has been included almost without fail since his first call-up back in February 2010, although he did miss out on the World Cup that same summer.

Cesare Prandelli would hand him his debut shortly after, and the 27-year-old has won 10 caps in the four years since. Gigi Buffon stands in his way, of course, as the Juventus and Italy captain is proving to be an immovable presence between the posts.

The undisputed first-choice keeper returned to Turin yesterday, however, leaving his understudy to don the gloves against Albania, and Sirigu kept a clean sheet in a 71-minute display. Statistics from ESPN FC show he made three saves at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris, looking confident throughout and commanding his box with authority.

But he would make one glaring error early in the second half, his mistake almost allowing the visitors to take the lead through Ermir Lenjani. He recovered well to smother the chance and did not allow the incident to affect his performance, displaying the mental toughness needed at the highest level.

With Buffon still in excellent form for club and country, Sirigu’s ability to displace Italy’s record appearance-maker remains slim, and barring injury that is unlikely to change before Euro 2016. But elsewhere in the side, a number of others may have staked a claim for more regular appearances with their displays on Tuesday night.

Nominally fielded as a right wing-back, Alessio Cerci shrugged off his inability to earn playing time at Atletico Madrid with an excellent attacking performance. Rarely asked to defend, the former Torino man played high up the pitch, his running causing endless problems for the Albania defence.

While Diego Simeone appears unconvinced—Cerci has played just 80 minutes in La Liga this term—few in Italy underestimate Cerci’s impact. Corriere dello Sport linked the 27-year-old with a January move to Roberto Mancini’s Inter (h/t Football Italia), and on this showing it is easy to understand why.

If Cerci and Sirigu need no introduction, a third member of Conte’s reshuffled side is a lesser-known name but performed equally well. Lorenzo De Silvestri has endured a stuttering career, initially impressing at both his beloved Lazio and then Fiorentina only to move on with his promise remaining largely unfulfilled.

He appears to have found a home at Sampdoria however, landing at the club two years ago and already close to 70 league appearances. Largely employed as an orthodox right-back in Sinisa Mihajlovic’s back four, 2014-15 has seen the 26-year-old continue the excellent form he showed last season.

WhoScored.com shows he averaged 2.1 tackles, 1.8 interceptions and 4.3 clearances last term, also contributing a goal and two assists as the Genovese side finished in 12th place. A superb start has the team currently in fourth place, with De Silvestri playing a huge role in that improvement.

Thoroughly deserving of his place in the Azzurri line-up here, he would display another quality which may see him return during the next international break. With Conte once again deploying the Azzurri in his favoured 3-5-2 formation, the Sampdoria man would perform admirably in an unfamiliar role on the right of the back three.

His muscular frame makes him look comfortable in central defence, and his 6’1” frame ensures he is a fine header of the ball. WhoScored shows that only nine players in Serie A won more aerial duels than De Silvestri (3.3 per game) last term, a trait vital to the role he was asked to play on Tuesday.

Like Cerci and Sirigu, he proved he belonged in the Azzurri shirt, and all three men are likely to return the next time Conte gathers his squad. While the goodwill and charitable gesture toward the city of Genoa are the main story, it was also good to see some footballing positives emerging on the pitch.