Italy (National Football)

The group stage of the 2016 UEFA European Championship came to a close on Wednesday.  The final games on the slate came from Group E, and they provided ample drama.  Both matches were decided by goals in the last 10 minutes, and the contest between Italy and the Republic of Ireland saw the latter qualify for the round of 16 in dramatic fashion with a 1-0 victory.

The Italians came into the game having already won the group.  There were some who thought that may not have been the best of things.  If the Azzurri had come in as runners-up, they would have ended up playing the winner of Group F—the weakest in the tournament—in the round of 16.  That turned out to be Hungary, followed by a potential quarterfinal against either Wales or Northern Ireland.

Winning the group set up a date with the runner-up of Group D.  After two rounds it was generally assumed that that would be Croatia—until the Vatreni turned the tournament on its ear with a last-gasp win over Spain on Tuesday.  That gave them top spot in the group—and set up a marquee matchup between Italy and Spain on Monday.

With the next round's opponents set, Wednesday's match with the Irish was little more than a formality for Italy.  It gave manager Antonio Conte the chance to heavily rotate his squad, giving a measure of rest to key players who had run hard for two games and a chance for less-used figures to make an impression.  The reserves made an impression all right—but it wasn't the one most of them would have wanted to make.

Some of the changes were forced or semi-forced.  Antonio Candreva, who has manned Conte's right wing with aplomb in this tournament, sustained a hamstring injury in Friday's match against Sweden.  While his fitness is being considered day-to-day, there was no way the Lazio man would play in a meaningless game.

Similarly rested was goalkeeper and captain Gianluigi Buffon, who had been dealing with an illness.  Had this game mattered, he likely would have played.  In his absence, Salvatore Sirigu deputized, though the rust from losing his starting job at Paris Saint-Germain would be painfully obvious in this match.

Conte made six more changes to the lineup, including both strikers and both wing-backs.  Alessandro Florenzi was moved from the wing to the center of midfield, along with first-time starters Thiago Motta and Stefano Sturaro.

Adjusting the defense was a pickle for Conte.  The back three have been Italy's bedrock in France, but two of them—Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini—picked up yellow cards in the group opener against Belgium.  Another booking for either would mean that the player would be suspended for the game against Spain.

The conundrum: Conte had decided to only take one reserve center-back to France.  Angelo Ogbonna played in place of Chiellini, but Bonucci would play the entire 90 minutes.  The 29-year-old has been Italy's star man in this tournament—losing his combination of defensive and passing abilities could well have been fatal.

Bonucci described the situation to Sky Sport Italia (h/t Football Italia) as having "a Sword of Damocles over your head," and he came perilously close to picking up that fateful card.  However, he got through the match, leading the back line to a good performance that was only marred at the end.

The same couldn't be said of the midfield and forward lines.  Presented with what amounted to an audition for more playing time in the knockout stage, the Italians almost universally flopped.

The midfield in particular was putrid.  Motta could not control the game from the regista position.  Florenzi was unable to use his dribbling ability to take on Irish defenders.  Sturaro did well when he played his game, but sometimes he tried to play outside himself and paid for it by getting dispossessed.

One part of the midfield's problem was out of their control.  

The pitch at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille was absolutely atrocious.  Bad weather in the area did so much damage to the pitch that UEFA announced on Tuesday, per the Associated Press (h/t ESPN FC), that they would replace the turf after the group stage was over.  

It was worth wondering whether Conte was having flashbacks to 2013, when his Juventus team crashed out of the UEFA Champions League on a snow-blasted pitch in Istanbul.

The surface made passing difficult, but this midfield combination could have been playing on AstroTurf and struggled to provide service to strikers Ciro Immobile and Simone Zaza, such was the dearth of ideas when Italy managed to keep possession.

Zaza and Immobile did their best with what they had—which wasn't much at all.  Besides the lack of opportunities, the two strikers are too similar to play together.  Zaza managed to change the game against Sweden, bringing a pace that Graziano Pelle lacked, but he can't be relied on to provide all the speed in attack.

He dovetailed well with Eder on Friday and improved when Lorenzo Insigne was inserted into Wednesday's game in the 74th minute.  But he should never be deployed with Immobile again.

Insigne, on the other hand, was one of the game's few bright spots.  His introduction immediately gave the Azzurri an element of danger they had totally lacked before then.  Three minutes after coming on he skipped past the Irish defense and unleashed a curling shot that slammed into the base of the post.

Ireland hadn't created that many high-level opportunities in the second half, but with six minutes left on the clock they created the two best of the night.

Bonucci was in possession in the defensive third when he was mugged by Wes Hoolahan.  Referee Ovidiu Hategan of Romania, who called 40 total fouls and generally killed the rhythm of the game by constantly blowing his whistle for soft infringements, deigned to let Ireland play on in this case, but Sirigu managed to win the one-on-one duel.

A minute later, though, Hoolahan was back at it, swinging in a dangerous cross toward Robbie Brady.  The Norwich City man got a free header and sent Ireland into ecstasy.

The goal was a product of Italy's squad rotation.  Bonucci, who was marking Brady, has played with Buffon for six years, and it was obvious by his body language that he was expecting the goalkeeper to come out to play the ball, but Sirigu stopped short and Brady did the rest.

At the end of the day, this game was meaningless for the Italians.  They had only two objectives going in: for everyone to come out healthy and for Bonucci to avoid a yellow card.  Both of those things came to pass.  For all their failings on Wednesday, this game will have little effect on the round-of-16 game against Spain.

Only two of the players on the field Wednesday figure to start against La Roja—Barzagli and Bonucci.  Buffon will return and the "BBC" defense will be reunited.  Daniele De Rossi will return to steady the midfield, while Pelle and Eder will return to lead the attack.

If this game has any takeaways, it's that Conte needs those people on the field.  The only person in this game to make a legitimate case for playing time was Insigne.  The rest showed just how steep the drop-off in team cohesion is when the second unit moves in.

Italy now have five days to prepare for their crunch game with the two-time defending European champions.  

There may be things to learn from the Ireland match from a tactical standpoint, but if Italy's overall performance felt like it usually does in a friendly, that's because that's pretty much what the game was for them.  

When the Italy starters return to the field, fans will most likely get treated to the best game of the round of 16.

After clinching top spot on the Group E table, Italy will be gunning for a fifth straight clean-sheet victory when they wrap up their group-stage schedule Wednesday, taking on Ireland as -145 betting favorites (bet $145 to win $100) at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

Desperate for a win to keep their distant hopes of advancing to the knockout stage alive, Ireland trail on the three-way match odds as heavy underdogs.

Match Odds: Italy -145, Republic of Ireland +355, Draw +245 (Matchup Report)

Italy are already assured of a first-place finish in Group E and could be in line to rest starters Wednesday as they close out group-stage action against Ireland. The Azzurri have already exceeded expectations at Euro 2016, which they entered trailing the favorites at +1600 odds to win the tournament.

The club now take a six-game win streak in qualifying and tournament contests into Wednesday afternoon's matchup at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, including an impressive 2-0 win in their tournament opener over an underachieving Belgium squad currently sitting at No. 2 on the FIFA World Ranking.

With a 1-0 win over Sweden in their last outing, the Italians have outscored opponents by a 6-0 margin over their past four games and will likely rest a number of key starters, including the likes of goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon, midfielder Daniele De Rossi and defender Giorgio Chiellini.

While Italy look toward the knockout stage, Ireland must win and produce offense to stay in the hunt for a round-of-16 berth. Ireland have earned a single point to date with a 1-1 draw against Sweden, but they remain winless at the Euro since 1988.

There is nowhere to go but up for this Irish squad. They were badly outclassed in a 3-0 loss to Belgium, leaving them winless in their past five overall and seven of their past nine games.

A victory over Italy would improve Ireland to four points and likely leave them in the thick of the race among other third-place finishers. But with a current goal differential of minus-three, the Irish offense will need to regularly find the Italian net to bolster their chances of advancing.

Ireland must also reverse their dismal historical record against Italy, which has seen them win just two of 14 all-time matches. Their sole victory in tournament play came 22 years ago—a 1-0 win in the group stage of the 1994 World Cup.

Italy vs. Republic of Ireland Prediction: 2-1 Italy

All betting lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. Check out the latest Euro 2016 news.

The group stage of the 2016 UEFA European Championship is drawing to a close, and Italy are sitting pretty in Group E.

By virtue of their victories over Belgium and Sweden, the Azzurri have sealed top spot in the group.  They're one of only two teams in the field to have at least six points in the group without having conceded a goal.  For them, the final group match against the Republic of Ireland is a dead rubber in every sense of the term.

However, even though the game won't mean anything in terms of how they qualify, it's still important for the Italians to put in a good performance on Wednesday.  With the degree of difficulty about to ratchet up in the knockout rounds, it will be important to maintain the momentum they have gathered during the first two games.

That will require a delicate balancing act from manager Antonio Conte.  With the top spot in the group secure, the Italy boss can afford to rotate his team, both to give rest to his relatively ageing roster and to shield some important players who are carrying yellow cards.

The card slate doesn't get cleared until after the quarter-finals, and a few key pieces are in danger of suspension.  Midfielder Daniele De Rossi picked up a booking in Friday's game against Sweden, but even more important is the situation at the back.

Italy's biggest strength—arguably their only strength—is their defence.  The unit, lifted whole from Serie A champions Juventus, could be the best in the world.

Known by the club's fans as the BBC—not to be confused with the attacking line with the same nickname at Real Madrid—Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini have played with each other for five-and-a-half seasons and practically think as one.  Any disruption of that group could prove fatal.

Both Bonucci and Chiellini picked up cards in the opening match against Belgium, so any infraction strong enough for referee Ovidiu Hategan to bring out his book would mean they miss the round-of-16 game, which will presumably be against Croatia.

Conte will almost certainly rest at least one of the duo for Angelo Ogbonna, who is familiar enough with his 3-5-2 system after spending two years at Juve.  The Azzurri manager has also experimented with Matteo Darmian as part of the back three during qualifying and could use him to rest both, but La Gazzetta dello Sport reported on Monday (h/t Football Italia) that the Manchester United defender is not at optimal condition.

Conte also has the midfield to consider.  Apart from De Rossi's yellow, Marco Parolo and Emanuele Giaccherini have been running like madmen over the first two games and deserve to rest.  With Antonio Candreva dealing with an injury, the entire midfield could potentially change.

The strikers could also be rotated to give Conte a chance to see whether a new pairing could offer something fresh up front.  Even goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon could be rested after suffering flu-like symptoms for much of the weekend.

With so much potential turnover, this game could be Conte's biggest coaching challenge in the group stage.  He has to figure out how to keep the intensity and focus the team has shown in the first two games with a new-look starting XI.

They need to maintain that level against a Republic team that, like Sweden, is going to be difficult to break down.  If the Italians flop, it could stall their momentum in their tracks and bring up a whole new set of questions going into the knockout round.

They're not going to have the luxury of simply playing the game out, either.  The Republic got lucky on Friday when Eder curled the game winner past Sweden goalkeeper Andreas Isaksson.  That kept the Irish level with the Swedes on points and kept them in contention for one of the four places in the round of 16 available to third-place teams.

If they beat Italy and Sweden fail to win against Belgium, that would put them in third on four points and jump them in the third-place rankings over Group A representative Albania, who have already completed their slate.

They have their work cut out for them.  The Azzurri will be tough nuts to crack regardless of who plays, and the Republic are similar to Italy in that they aren't the kind of team that can break down a set defence.  Both are at their best playing on the counter—although even then the Irish sometimes can't close the deal.

According to WhoScored.com, the Republic recorded 10 shots against Belgium on Saturday but failed to hit the target once.  Against Sweden they put the ball on frame four times out of nine and hit the woodwork with another.  The consistency simply isn't there.

The Italians, on the other hand, have been relatively efficient.  Against Belgium they hit the target with half of their 12 shots, and three of eight against the Swedes.  Three of those nine shots on target have hit the back of the net, and two more were the subject of superhuman saves by Belgium's Thibaut Courtois—the kind that only a handful of goalkeepers in the world can make.

Whether or not they can keep that going depends on what Conte decides to do with the lineup, particularly the forwards.  Simone Zaza, who came on as a sub on the hour mark against Sweden, gave the team a much-needed dose of pace up front that helped pull the Swedish defence apart enough to get a few shots in.

Conte has relied on the relatively immobile Graziano Pelle paired with the more mobile Eder, but it could be worth seeing how Lorenzo Insigne—by far the most mobile and creative forward on Conte's roster—could do against a defense that will be harder to counter-attack against.

Whatever Conte decides, he must make sure that the players on the field play with the same intensity they showed in the first two matches.

He may be doing so on the training ground.  La Gazzetta dello Sport reported on Monday (h/t Football Italia) that Conte has been using a new high-tech, high-intensity regimen on the practice field.

That would be unorthodox for a big summer tournament, where training is usually on the lighter side to keep players fresh after long seasons.  Conte could be trying to use his training sessions to keep the intensity up at all times.

Of course, Conte has been scrupulous about keeping his sessions under wraps, so this could be more speculation than substance.  But it wouldn't be a surprise if he was keeping his team working in order to keep their energy up.

Wednesday's game doesn't have any competitive ramifications for Italy, but its psychological effect could be huge.  

Keep up their early-tournament form, and they would go into the knockout phase with a full head of steam behind them.  Break down, and they could face the round of 16 needing to pick themselves back up and make it that much harder to advance.

Much has been made of the choices Italy manager Antonio Conte made when he finalized his 23-man roster for the 2016 UEFA European Championship earlier this month.

The general consensus was that it was one of the weakest groups the Italians have put together for a major tournament.  Part of that couldn't be helped.  Injuries to Juventus' Claudio Marchisio (torn ACL) and Paris Saint-Germain's Marco Verratti (sports hernia) gutted the midfield.  Even one of his primary backups, Riccardo Montolivo, had to withdraw from the tournament with a calf injury.

Conte was faced with two choices.  He could go with older veterans such as Thiago Motta and Daniele De Rossi in the hope that their experience would carry the Azzurri.  Or he could have picked younger players such as Giacomo Bonaventura or Jorginho, who are far less experienced but whose dynamism might spur the team on.

He chose the former route, much to the chagrin of Italy's pundits.  The result was a midfield long on experience but short on creativity.  Motta, De Rossi and the rest of the midfield didn't have the kind of passing ability brought to the table by Verratti or Andrea Pirlo that can unlock a defense.

However, a central pillar to Conte's coaching philosophy is that hard work and team play can overcome a side's weaknesses.  In his first two seasons at Juventus, he compensated for the lack of a top-level forward with tactical guile and an excellent midfield.  In the Italy manager's book, any weakness can be compensated for.

Nothing exemplifies that philosophy more than Conte's connection with Emanuele Giaccherini.

Giaccherini was born in the ancient Tuscan town of Bibbiena, which traces its origins back to the time of the Etruscans.  He was in the youth system of his hometown team when he transferred into the youth ranks of Cesena.

He spent two years in the Seahorses' system before he began to go out on loan, first to Forli, then Bellaria Igea and finally Pavia.  Nine goals in 28 games with the Longobardi convinced Cesena to keep him on, and he made his debut for the club from Emilia-Romagna in the 2008-09 season.

That season was the start of a sequence of successive promotions that saw Cesena reach Serie A for the first time in 19 years.  He was versatile enough to play on either wing, and he managed to score 20 times in 97 league games across three levels.  In his lone Serie A season, in 2010-11, he scored seven and notched four assists in 36 matches, 32 of them starts.

That display caught the eye of a rebuilding Juventus, and the Bianconeri purchased Giaccherini on a co-ownership deal in August 2011.  He started the first match at the brand-new Juventus Stadium on the left of a 4-3-3, but a complication soon arose.  As the season progressed, Conte shifted to the 3-5-2 that would soon become synonymous with him.

That setup didn't have a place for wingers like Giaccherini, but he didn't disappear.  Instead, Conte turned him into a "mezz'ala"—a box-to-box midfielder—and he spent the rest of the season as the Juve manager's utility man in the midfield, replacing Marchisio, Pirlo and Arturo Vidal when needed and ultimately playing 27 games between the league and the Coppa Italia.

The productive season caught the eye of then-Italy coach Cesare Prandelli, and Giaccherini was a surprise inclusion on the roster for Euro 2012.

Even more surprising was Giaccherini's inclusion in Prandelli's starting lineup for the group-stage opener against Spain.  

Prandelli was using a 3-5-2 as an emergency measure to cover for an injury, and Giaccherini was slotted in as the left wing-back—a position he hadn't played before.  If that wasn't enough pressure, consider this: Giaccherini was making his international debut that day.

Imagine the conversation in the manager's office that day: "OK, Emanuele, you'll be getting your first cap today.  Oh, and it's going to be in a position you've never played before, and it's against Spain.  Good luck!"

Giaccherini played fairly well in that game, but his inexperience as a wing-back showed when he was slightly behind the play that allowed the Spaniards their equalizer.  He started the next game of that tournament against Croatia and then spent the rest of the tournament on the bench, but his international career was just beginning.

In his second season at Juve, he recorded three goals and three assists, including a stoppage-time winner against Catania in March that helped the Bianconeri consolidate their hold on first place.  His play kept him in the picture for Prandelli, and he traveled to Brazil for the 2013 Confederations Cup.  That summer was probably the most successful period of his career to date.

In a pre-tournament friendly against Haiti, he broke the 29-year-old record for fastest goal in the history of the national team, firing in on 19 seconds.  In the opener against Mexico, he assisted Mario Balotelli's game-winning goal and then forced an own goal in the second group match against Japan.  Then he temporarily equalized the final game of the group against Brazil with a stunning angled strike.

The semifinal against Spain went into extra time scoreless, and Giaccherini just missed putting the Azzurri into the final when he hit the post in the extra period.  

After penalty kicks condemned them to the consolation game against Uruguay, Giaccherini again played a starring role, and he took Italy's last penalty of that shootout before Gianluigi Buffon ended the shootout with a save.

But just as it looked like Giaccherini's arc was at its highest, things started going wrong.  He was separated from Conte early in the 2014 summer window when he was sold to Sunderland.  The move didn't go well, and by the end of the season, he had lost hold of a starting spot with the Black Cats.  He missed out on the 2014 World Cup, and in 2014-15 he only played eight times all year.

By the time he got to Bologna on loan at the beginning of this season, he was in need of a breath of life.  He got it, scoring seven times and playing well enough to be reunited with Conte on the national team.

The coach had already gone back to his old favorite several times as qualifying for Euro 2016 began, and as his midfield options dwindled, Giaccherini became a favorite to start.

There were howls of derision.  Why rely on a solid but limited player when creativity in the midfield was so badly needed?

For the first half hour or so of Italy's group opener against Belgium, it looked like they would be right.  Then Giaccherini found a space between two defenders and took down a beautiful long pass from Leonardo Bonucci before slotting past goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.

From then on, Giaccherini has been one of the best players on the field for Italy.  According to WhoScored.com, he's completed 83.1 percent of his passes and averaged 1.5 tackles per game.  He's been all over the field, harassing opponents without the ball and doing his best to set up the attack when in possession.  It was his cross with eight minutes left that nearly broke the deadlock against Sweden, only to see Marco Parolo's header crash into the crossbar.

He has fit perfectly into Conte's tactical setup, and he is perfectly emblematic of the coach's efforts to make a team that is greater than the sum of its parts.  

He may not be a superstar, but he's versatile and effective, and when he executes Conte's tactics properly, he is elevated far beyond the player he can be as an individual.

Conte's Italy has succeeded thus far in the tournament by enhancing their individual abilities with high-level team play.  And there is no player—at this tournament or in years past—who has exemplified that as much as Giaccherini.

So little was expected of the Italy national team as the 2016 European Championship began.

The Azzurri were without two of their best midfielders due to injury, and their forward line was a hodgepodge of journeymen and youngsters unproven at international level.  

The overall talent level of the final squad was considered one of the worst in the country's history, and the imminent departure of manager Antonio Conte, bound for Chelsea next season, was expected to be a distraction.

Even though they possessed what was probably the stoutest defence in the tournament, they were expected by many to be the big flop of the competition.  In a group that contained a major pre-tournament favourite in Belgium and a Zlatan Ibrahimovic-led Sweden team, some even expected them to crash out at the group stage for the third time in their last four major tournaments.

With two rounds of play in Group E now complete, the script has certainly been flipped.

Conte was roundly criticized in the week before the tournament for keeping players like Eder and Emanuele Giaccherini on the final roster, leaving younger players like Jorginho at home and not even considering players like Domenico Berardi for the preliminary roster.  

The fact that the No. 10 shirt went to Thiago Motta only made the howling louder.  The re-emergence of his old standby, the 3-5-2, renewed talk of him being tactically inflexible.

But so far, Conte has defied his critics.  Some of the most controversial inclusions on his roster have made some of the most important contributions.  His tactics, considered by some to not be viable for the modern international game, have held up.  Italy have some very plain weaknesses, but the team that was expected to struggle to get out of the group have won it with a game to spare.

We'll start with the positives, and in doing that, the defence must be mentioned first.

The back line has been lifted whole cloth from Conte's former club Juventus.  Goalkeeper and captain Gianluigi Buffon has been his typically excellent self when called upon—although he has not been called upon all that much.

The Azzurri have only allowed three shots on target in their first two games, all of them against Belgium in the opener.  That speaks to the incredible work done by the so-called BBC—no, not Real Madrid's version, but the Juve trio of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini.

The trio have played together for so long—five-and-a-half years, to be exact—that they can practically read each other's thoughts.  Against Belgium, they constantly frustrated the Red Devils by getting into passing lanes and interrupting buildup play.  

Chiellini marked star striker Romelu Lukaku completely out of the game.  There was a nervy moment or two near the match's end, but at the end of the night, Belgium never truly looked like they were going to score.

On Friday, Sweden were simply neutralized.  The interplay between the three centre-backs was so good that man-marking Ibrahimovic became unnecessary.  They constantly handed the big Swede off between the three of them and stifled their buildup play so effectively that Zlatan was often found dropping deep into midfield just to receive the ball.  When he played farther up front, the back line caught him offside.

That held the game scoreless long enough for the Italians to break the deadlock through one of the unlikeliest sources.

One of the most controversial of Conte's call-ups, Eder had only scored once since he moved from Sampdoria to Inter Milan in January.  Observers wondered why a more in-form player wasn't chosen.

They ended up eating their words when the Brazil-born striker took a headed pass from Simone Zaza, cut in hard and slammed the ball past Swedish 'keeper Andreas Isaksson.

This was the continuation of a trend for Conte.  Apart from Eder, one of his other most puzzling selections, Giaccherini, has proved decisive in the tournament.  

The diminutive midfielder looked to be destined for an early hook on Monday against Belgium—but a goal that started as an excellent long ball from Bonucci vindicated Giaccherini's spot in the starting XI. The 31-year-old has played the full 90 minutes in both matches, playing as one of Conte's box-to-box players.

As positive as things have been, though, Conte still has a crack to paper over: his midfield.

The middle of the park is clearly the weakest phase of Italy's game.  It isn't helping Conte that his two best midfielders, Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti, missed out on France due to knee and hernia injuries, respectively.

In their absence, Conte has had to come up with ways to create chances.  The players that have manned the midfield for the first two games—Giaccherini, Marco Parolo and Daniele De Rossi—will all run for days and have been good defensive contributors, but they aren't a creative force.  Indeed, the best passer on the team now is probably Bonucci.

The centre-back tried several times on Friday to replicate the pass that cleaved open the Belgian defence for Giaccherini's opener on Monday, but the Swedes looked wise to it.  He can still make that pass and trigger other attacks from the back, but someone in the midfield has to step up to supplement him.

This lack of creativity has been manifest in the number of opportunities Italy have managed to create.  They've managed to take only 20 shots this tournament—a number Belgium nearly exceeded in game one alone.  Spain and France have both taken 36 shots in their first two games, Germany has 34.  Of the so-called big teams in the competition, Italy's attack has seen by far the fewest opportunities in front of goal.

The silver lining here is that, for the most part, the Italians are making their shots count.  Nine of those 20 shots have found the target.  Three of those have been goals.  Two more would have found the back of the net were it not for Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, who denied both Graziano Pelle and Ciro Immobile with the kind of save that only a handful of 'keepers today can make.

With their midfield unable to match the output of their more elite competitors, being clinical is key.  The Azzurri have been so thus far, but all it takes is one cold spell up front for the goals to dry up completely—putting even more pressure on the men in defence to be as perfect as they have been so far.

Conte has certainly proved his doubters wrong thus far.  Every move he's made has come good, from keeping Giaccherini and Eder in the lineup to his inspired substitution of Zaza for Pelle against Sweden, which added just enough pace up front to unbalance the Swedish defence and eventually punch through.

But this is not a perfect team by any means.  The midfielders are still struggling to create, and if they come up against a top-of-the-line midfield like those of France, led by Paul Pogba, or Spain, led by Andres Iniesta, they could very well be overwhelmed in the middle of the park and fall heavily onto the back three.

But that back three have shown they can shoulder quite a lot of weight.  Going as deep into the tournament as Italy did four years ago will obviously require a lot of things to go exactly right, but stranger things have happened at the Euros.

The 2004 Greece side that won the whole tournament provided the road map for such a victory.  With a defence as solid as Italy's, the Azzurri can beat anyone in the field—so long as they manage to pot a goal or two at the other end.

All in all, the first part of the group phase has been very positive, in no small part thanks to Conte himself.  

As the knockout stages beckon, it remains to be seen whether he can do enough to shore up his weaknesses.  If he can do that and outscheme his more talented opponents, Italy could very well cause one of the biggest upsets in the history of world football.

Italy came into their Euro 2016 game against Sweden knowing that it would be a different test than the one they passed against Belgium in Group E on Monday.

The Belgians and their high-octane attack were going to look to play on the front foot, allowing holes for the Italians to play through a makeshift defensive line that was missing three players due to injury.  

The Swedes, on the other hand, weren't going to press as far up.  The Italians were going to have to do the one thing they are weakest at in this tournament—break down an opposing defence in possession.

Much of the controversy that arose after Italy manager Antonio Conte finalised his 23-man squad for the European Championship had to do with the lack of creativity in the side.  With so many questions up front, people wondered where the goals would come from.

For 88 minutes on Friday, as Italy slogged through what looked like it would be a scoreless draw, those questions grew louder and louder until one of Conte's most controversial selections broke the deadlock and claimed a 1-0 victory for the Azzurri.

The buzz coming into the game concerned how close the Italians could come to replicating their 2-0 win over Belgium, one of the tournament favorites, in the opener.  The team themselves were quick to play down expectations.  

In a pre-match press conference, Conte repeatedly told reporters (h/t Football Italia) "we've done nothing."

Wing-back Antonio Candreva was similarly guarded, telling another presser (h/t Football Italia), "We are not qualified yet [for the knockout rounds], it'd be wrong to start making calculations now."  

Captain Gianluigi Buffon, whose international career has spanned nearly 20 years, was quick to remind the press (h/t Football Italia) that, "Historically, we have problems in the second game [of a tournament]."

That warning certainly produced painful memories of Game 2s past in major tournaments.  The freshest wound came two years ago, when the Azzurri limped to a 1-0 defeat against Costa Rica that saw them surrender the initiative in their group.  In Euro 2008, they failed to respond to an opening loss and needed a penalty save from Buffon to scrape a 1-1 draw.

Even in times of joy, the second game of the group stage has been a speed bump—the second contest of their 2006 World Cup triumph was the infamous Brian McBride game, which ended 10 men on nine and knotted at 1-1.

But the meeting with the Swedes produced possibly the most painful memory of them all.  Leading 1-0 against Sweden in the group stage of Euro 2004, Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored the equaliser with an outrageous backheel flick that squeezed into the millimetre of space between the crossbar and the head of Christian Vieri, who was covering the post.

The draw deprived Italy of control of their own destiny, and when the Swedes drew 2-2 in the final round against Denmark, the Azzurri were out.  

That game is when Zlatan became Zlatan.  Juventus bought him that summer, and his rise to become one of the most successful strikers of the generation kicked off in earnest.

Italy would look for revenge here, and it looked like it was in the cards.  Sweden were coming off a dull game against the Republic of Ireland, while Italy had the momentum after their upset of the Red Devils.

But the need to break down a set defence began thwarting the Italians early as their weaknesses started to show through.  

As it had been on Monday against Belgium, Italy's midfielders took far too long to make their decisions.  Several times wing-backs Candreva and Alessandro Florenzi were in crossing positions but took the few extra seconds on the ball that allowed Sweden's defence to cover up any potential free runners.

The game's first opportunity fell to midfielder Marco Parolo, who took a good layoff by Florenzi and fired at Andreas Isaksson's goal, only to have it deflected harmlessly into the arms of the 'keeper.

On the other end of the field, Italy's greatest strength was holding fast.  The defence, lifted entirely from Conte's former club Juventus, put Ibra and the rest of the Swedish attack on lockdown.  

The most dangerous moment he produced in the first half came in the 14th minute when he looked up expecting a penalty after a clash with Andrea Barzagli, but referee Viktor Kassai correctly whistled him for initiating the contact and gave the free-kick to Italy.

Ibrahimovic spent the majority of the first half deep in his own midfield, trying to pick up the ball and forward it on to the attack.  When he did get into the box, his old Serie A nemesis Giorgio Chiellini shut him down.

It was a game reminiscent of Conte's Juve teams, who lacked real flair players and often slogged to victories against sides that weren't on their level from a talent standpoint.

It's the kind of match that perfectly exemplifies Conte's coaching philosophy, which is all about the team.  No one player is as important as the whole squad.  Individual skill is necessary, but its purpose is to finish a scoring chance off.  It's the team and the tactics that are relied on to create them.

That philosophy was on display throughout the game, especially as the second half got under way.  The team started combining with each other better than in the first, and four minutes in, Eder—whose impact on the first half had been confined to his running and efforts off the ball—laid the ball off perfectly for Graziano Pelle, who blasted high and wide.

More chances followed, all of which coming from team moves rather than individual flair.  A short corner saw Candreva fizz in a cross that would have been a sure Daniele De Rossi goal had a Swedish defender not gotten his head to it at the last moment.  A minute later, a set play from a corner was aimed for Eder, who just missed controlling what could have been a volley attempt from short range.

The defence was similarly effective as a unit.  Wherever Ibrahimovic was, one of the back three was in his back pocket.  They were truly emblematic of Conte's team-play ethos, catching Ibrahimovic offside twice— the second time crucially as a Swedish cross from the left flank slipped by everyone to get to the big striker on the far post.  

Ibra was perhaps lucky in this instance that he was offside—it spared him the embarrassment of skying the ball over the bar from about a foot away.

Conte put his fingerprints on the game on the half-hour, when he took off a disappointing Pelle and inserted Simone Zaza.

When you talk about no-nonsense players, Zaza is on the top of the list, but the increase in pace he provided gave Italy's group moves that extra step they needed to start getting really dangerous.  

His headed pass to Marco Parolo only 90 seconds after his introduction set up the Azzurri's first real opportunity of the second half, one that only failed when Kim Kallstrom made an impressive intervention in the box against Emanuele Giaccherini.

The game loafed towards full time still deadlocked.  The Italians smothered every attempt Sweden made to get forward, and the frustration of Ibrahimovic was becoming palpable.  

On the other end, the Azzurri continued to try to combine to break through.  In this, they were either too imprecise with their passing or, in the case of Parolo, horribly unlucky when he saw an excellent header clip the crossbar from a Giaccherini cross.

Just when it looked like a scoreless tie was assured, the goal came.  It was typical Conte style—from three of the most unglamorous players on the field on one of the most unglamorous plays in football.

It came just after an attempted cross by substitute Stefano Sturaro was blocked out for a throw in.  Chiellini came up and fired the ball long.  Zaza went up and headed it straight into the path of Eder, who cut in hard to the inside.

The Brazil-born striker's inclusion in the lineup had been one of the biggest controversies of Conte's selection.  He had only scored once since joining Inter Milan in January, and his inclusion even in the preliminary squad was seen as outrageous.

All that was probably running through his mind as he got to the middle of the field and, freed up by an astounding error by Andreas Granqvist, unleashed a beautiful curling strike that left Andreas Isaksson desperately pounding the turf.

Four minutes of stoppage time later—a period that included a heart-stopping moment when Bonucci appeared to grab an opponent's shirt in the box with seconds to go—the Italians were through to the round of 16 with a game to spare.  The Swedes are on the brink of elimination, having failed to put a shot on target in 120 minutes of group play.

At the beginning of the tournament, few expected Italy would have claimed such a distinction.  A result against the Republic of Ireland is still necessary to win the group, but they will be able to play that game with much less pressure than they would have been under if they only had four points rather than six.

This game was not pretty—it may have been one of the uglier displays of football in the tournament so far.  But Italian football has never been about looking pretty—it's about what works.  And so far, Conte's no-nonsense, team-based approach has produced two victories.  

This game proved, as Giaccherini colourfully put it to reporters after the game (h/t Football Italia), "This Italy side ... has cojones."

That quality, that "grinta" that was such a hallmark of the Juve teams that won back-to-back-to-back Serie A titles with Conte at the helm, has been decisive so far in this tournament.  

With Euro 2016 proving to be one of the most wide-open tournaments we've seen in years, that approach could—if everything goes right—reap the ultimate reward.

Two nights have passed since Italy's 2-0 upset win over Belgium in Monday's Group E opener, and it still hasn't fully sunk in.

The Italians came into the game as the very definition of uncertainty. Manager Antonio Conte's squad selection had caused a whirlwind of controversy, and injuries had deprived the team of their two best midfielders in Claudio Marchisio and Marco Verratti. Most pundits thought the Azzurri would have their hands full simply getting out of the group. The Belgians were expected to make a statement win cementing themselves as tournament favorites.

Apparently no one gave the Italians the memo. A suffocating defense and goals from Emanuele Giaccherini and Graziano Pelle gave them their first opening-game win at the Euros since 2000 and put them in the driver's seat in the group.

Of course, the Italians have been here before. At the 2014 World Cup, they looked impressive in their first match against England before fading out and losing the final two by twin 1-0 scorelines, crashing out for the second straight World Cup.  

This is a delicate moment for Conte's team. The biggest match of the group is now done. The potential for a mental drop-off in the remaining group games against Sweden and the Republic of Ireland is definitely there. But there are a few major differences between this team and the one Cesare Prandelli took to Brazil in 2014.

First off, they don't have to deal with the soul-sucking effects of playing a game in Manaus. The conditions in the Amazon city were horrific—after the England game Marchisio told reporters (h/t Football Italia) that he felt like he was hallucinating at the end of the match. Each team that played there saw a downturn in their form in its aftermath, especially the Italians, who looked physically spent through both of their remaining games.

The next major difference is in coaching. Prandelli never settled on a set of tactics between Euro 2012 and the World Cup. The constant shifting reduced team cohesion, and at the vital moment Prandelli spit the bit. The team lost its direction and devolved into a group of individuals running around the field, especially in attack.

It's unlikely that Conte will make those mistakes. He's conducted a few experiments in his two years in charge of the national team, but the 3-5-2 that he used at Juventus has always hovered in the background as the team's bedrock. Conte's often been accused of inflexibility when it comes to the 3-5-2, but in an international tournament like this having a solid foundation keeps a team together.

And a team like Italy needs to be kept together. It was their work as a unit that conquered Belgium. The Juventus-based back three of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini (BBC) played, as they do at the club level, like they had one mind. Players ran down breakaways from behind, clogged passing lanes, and supported each other well to keep possession. If an Italian was put under pressure in possession, one or two teammates would appear, and a quick passing move would keep the ball out of Belgian hands.

If Italy is to have a chance at a deep run in this tournament, that kind of cohesiveness needs to be a constant. That starts with Friday's game against Sweden.

The Swedes had to take the long way to get to Euro 2016. If it weren't for the expanded format, they wouldn't be in the tournament at all.

Three wins and three draws in the first six matches of qualifying had but them into a good position, but their run-in was painful. A pair of losses to Russia (1-0) and Austria (4-1), propelled both of those teams ahead of them in the standings and dropped them to third.

That put them into the playoff round, where they were drawn with Scandinavian rivals Denmark. After a 2-1 win at home in the first leg, they went to Copenhagen and secured a 2-2 draw—good for a 4-3 aggregate win and a spot in the tournament proper.

If it feels easy to look at the Swedes as Zlatan Ibrahimovic & Friends, that's because they pretty much are. Few teams in the tournament are so dependent on one man.

An example: Ibrahimovic has scored 62 international goals—a Swedish record. The next-highest total on Erik Hamren's squad for this tournament? Midfielder Kim Kallstrom, whose 16 strikes have come in 129 games. Their next-highest scoring forward is Marcus Berg, who's only struck 10 times for his country in 39 games.

If Ibrahimovic doesn't perform, the team goes flat. That's exactly what happened for extended periods of Sweden's opener against Ireland, when Glen Whelan was tasked with marking the star striker. His teammates had the lion's share of possession, but for much of the game Ibra wasn't able to do all that much with it.

It wasn't the only way Martin O'Neill outcoached Hamren on the night. His midfield diamond overwhelmed Sweden's 4-4-2 at times, and even though a barely-fit James McCarthy had difficulty defending on the right side of midfield for 85 minutes, the Irish had the better of most of this game. They could have been 3-0 up at halftime if they had taken their chances, and they held Zlatan & Co. without a shot on target the entire game.

The way Sweden played on Monday must have Conte licking his chops. In his only two encounters with Ibrahimovic as a coach, during his first season at Juventus, he held the then-AC Milan striker without a goal—with the exact same defensive unit that he's going to be deploying on Friday.  

That was the BBC's first season together, when they were still learning to play with each other as a unit.

It's been five years since then, and their ability to play together could make man-marking Ibrahimovic with a midfielder, as O'Neill did with Whelan, unnecessary. Either the three can trade off taking care of him, or Chiellini—who has extensive experience playing against the big Swede when he was in Serie A—could be tasked to do what he did against Belgium, when he marked Romelu Lukaku out of the game.

On the other end, Italy will need to be more clinical than the Irish were. It's difficult for even a defense such as this one to totally eliminate a player like Ibrahimovic from a game, and the longer the game stays close, the more chances Zlatan will have to change it with a moment of magic.

To be fair, Thibaut Courtois was worth at least two goals to the Belgians, and Andreas Isaksson isn't at his level. But chances need to be taken, and the decision-making in the buildup play has to be much crisper. Too many times against Belgium the Italian attackers—specifically the wing backs—seemed caught in two minds about whether to pass or shoot when in dangerous positions. Those choices must come quicker if they don't want to wait until stoppage time to seal the game.

Monday's victory was an important first step, but winning the Euros is a journey of seven. Sweden may look unimpressive on paper, but any team with Ibrahimovic up front can cause a problem, even if the rest of the lineup isn't close to elite. If the Azzurri want to win, they will have to play as the same cohesive unit as they did on Monday.

If they do that, the sky could be the limit for this team.

https://twitter.com/MJCzechowicz/status/742460754843082752

You can't blame Gianluigi Buffon for getting carried away.

Italy weren't fancied to win their Euro 2016 opener against Belgium in Lyon, France, on Monday, but thanks to goals by Emanuele Giaccherini and Graziano Pelle, they saw off the world's second-ranked side, 2-0.

And the result got the Azzurri's veteran goalkeeper rather excited, as he sprinted the length of the field not once, but twice, to celebrate Pelle's injury-time goal and revel in the victory by leaping onto the crossbar.

The only problem? He fell flat onto his backside.

Still, though—three points will have softened the impact.

[Twitter]

The 2016 UEFA European Championship began for Italy on Monday with a marquee tilt against Belgium.

The Belgians came into the game as one of the hot favorites in the tournament.  They spent a good portion of 2016 at the top of the FIFA world rankings and came to the tournament ranked No. 2—the highest ranking of any team in the finals.

The Azzurri arrived at the sparkling new Stade de Lyon the clear underdogs, but they had a nasty surprise in store for the Belgians.  Their elite, Juventus-based defense throttled the Red Devils' high-octane attack before hitting them with long passes and strong counterattacks that ripped apart Belgium's injury-depleted back line.

The result was a convincing 2-0 victory—their first in a Euro opener since 2000—that puts them in excellent position to advance and, if things go right over the next two weeks, to potentially make a deep run in the tournament.

The credit for this win has to go to Italy manager Antonio Conte.  The former Juventus boss has been heavily criticized in the run-up to the tournament for his squad selection and for falling back on the 3-5-2 that he was wedded to at Juve.  

However, Conte's vision—that of a team that may not be made up of the sparkliest parts but runs like a well-oiled machine—has proved itself, at least for now.

When these two teams met each other in November, Conte mostly bested his counterpart, Marc Wilmots, in terms of tactics.  On Monday, he comprehensively outcoached him.

Conte was initially expected to use Stephan El Shaarawy as the left wing-back in the 3-5-2, but opted for Matteo Darmian instead.  But it was the tactics, not the players, that ended up causing the Belgian defense problems.  

Conte pushed both Darmian and right wing-back Antonio Candreva high and very wide, forcing Belgium's makeshift full-backs, Laurent Ciman and Jan Vertonghen, to the sidelines to cover them.

That produced readymade channels in the back four that the Azzurri could exploit.  They signaled their intent about eight minutes in, when Eder released Darmian down the left side.  The 26-year-old cut inside into a fantastic position, but he ended up caught in two minds between passing and shooting and eventually lost the ball.

That was the case in many Italian moves for the first 25 minutes or so.  They managed to get into dangerous positions but often waited too long to made their final decision.

In the meantime, the so-called Juventus block—the back three of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini and goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon—was suffocating Belgium's attack.  

An easily saved 10th-minute strike from long range by Radja Nainggolan was the only direct challenge to Buffon, and the back three were constantly in position to intercept any attempt to pass the ball into the box.

The biggest problem in those early phases was Emanuele Giaccherini.  One of the more controversial selections in the final squad, Conte's old Juve acolyte repeatedly made mistakes in possession, giving the ball away and making totally ineffective crossing attempts.  For the first half-hour, he looked like he was destined to be yanked off at halftime.

That is, until the 32nd minute.

That's when Giaccherini took advantage of a miscommunication between Ciman and Toby Alderweireld, slipping through and latching onto a magnificent long pass from Bonucci.  Rather than take the ball forward with his first touch, he simply deadened it, leaving goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois too far away to get off his line and smother the ball.  A simple tap was all it took to give Italy the lead.

Four minutes later, Graziano Pelle nearly doubled the lead when Marco Parolo was first to a second ball on a corner and set him up with a header.  The Southampton forward's own headed effort flew just wide of the post.

The second half was much like the first.  The Belgians looked better, and the occasional opening sprung up, like in the 53rd minute when Romelu Lukaku managed to get behind the defense and evade a charging Buffon only to barely miss the upper far corner.

But for much of the half, Belgium failed to create real danger.  Chiellini marked the Everton striker out of the game, keeping him from taking a shot in the first half and limiting him, according to WhoScored.com, to two total shots in the game.

Once Lukaku was withdrawn for Divock Origi, the Belgians began to create some real danger.  The Liverpool man narrowly missed with a header off a cross from Kevin De Bruyne with eight minutes left, and any touch on a loose ball in the 88th minute could have equalized.

But the Italians held firm and continued to search for a second goal.  Courtois made a one-handed save on a Pelle header in the 54th minute and did the same to substitute Ciro Immobile's cannon shot seven minutes from time.  

The search came to fruition in the final seconds, when Immobile slipped Candreva through on the counter, and Pelle emphatically volleyed home the Lazio man's cross.

Italy played as the ultimate team in this game.  It was telling that whenever an Azzurri player became hemmed in in possession, multiple white shirts appeared in the vicinity, allowing the initiation of quick passing moves that helped keep possession.  Moves were chased down, passing lanes were closed.  It seemed as if they moved as one.

Not only were Conte's on-field tactics spot on, but some of his most controversial selections had good games.  Giaccherini's game picked up immediately after his goal, chasing down Belgian breaks from behind and keeping possession in the defensive third with an acrobatic headed pass to Mattia De Sciglio.

Less obvious but just as important was Eder.  The Brazilian-born forward's inclusion in the team produced wild derision.  He had been toward the top of the scoring charts at Christmas but only scored once after moving to Inter Milan in January.  Besides his lack of form, the general suspicion of "oriundi" (foreign-born players) also clouded his inclusion.

Eder didn't come close to scoring, but he played a good game.  Several times he reached a leg around a defender to poke the ball to a teammate, and when not in possession, he made a good defensive contribution.  It was a good shift for the embattled forward, who rewarded Conte's confidence with solid performance.

In his post-match press conference, Conte praised his team's play.  "When there is this kind of unity," he told reporters (h/t Football Italia), "we can do great things."  The team wasn't perfect.  Several players made horrid passing mistakes that set up dangerous Belgian breakaways, and four Italians received yellow cards, including Bonucci and Chiellini.

But at the end of the day, this game will go down as a shining achievement for Conte and the Azzurri.  Coming into the tournament with the look of a fallen giant, Italy showed the rest of Europe that they aren't ready to be written off.  There is still work to do, and the remaining games against Sweden and the Republic of Ireland each have their challenges.

But Monday planted a glimmer of hope that a deep run in this tournament could be possible.  If Conte continues to have days like this one, perhaps his team will have more say over who becomes European champion than anyone thought they would.

Belgium return to the Euro for the first time since 2000 and enter their Group E matchup against Italy as slim +155 betting favorites. Fresh off a pair of clean sheet victories in pre-tournament action, Italy begin their drive towards their first Euro crown since 1968 as betting underdogs at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

Match Odds: Belgium +155, Italy +210, Draw +205 (Matchup Report)

Belgium will be looking to continue their European soccer renaissance as they kick off Euro 2016 as narrow betting favorites to finish atop what is widely considered this tournament's Group of Death.

Les Diables Rouges sputtered early on in Euro qualifying, including a stunning 1-0 loss to Wales, but righted the ship in time to dominate in their final four qualification matches. In the end, they claimed top spot in their qualification group and earned a coveted spot in Pot 1 of the Euro 2016 draw.

But with a less-than-favorable draw that also leaves them grouped with Sweden and Ireland, the squad's matchup with Italy takes on even greater importance.

Belgium made a splash two years ago at the 2014 FIFA World Cup, reaching the quarterfinals after failing to qualify in the previous two world championships.

The club has demonstrated consistency since their World Cup run, winning 13 of 18 contests, often in spectacular fashion. They scored three or more times in nine of those victories while suffering just a pair of losses, adding a 2-1 loss to Portugal in a March friendly to their clean sheet loss to Wales.

Runners-up at Euro 2012, Italy will be looking to rebound from a dismal performance at the 2014 World Cup when they got bounced in the group stage for a second straight time.

Italy went undefeated in Euro 2012, qualifying with a 7-3-0 record, but they were edged by Belgium for a spot in Pot 1 in this year's tournament draw, setting the stage for Monday's group stage matchup.

Gli Azzurri have produced middling results overall in the past 12 months, picking up wins in just six of their past 12 outings, but enter the tournament on a high following a 1-0 victory over Scotland and a 2-0 win over Finland in two pre-tournament contests.

The side is unbeaten in their past two dates with Belgium at the Euro. However, they will be looking to avenge a 3-1 loss to the Belgians in a friendly last November that dropped their record to 2-3-2 in their past seven meetings overall.

Belgium vs. Italy Prediction: 2-1 Belgium

All betting lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. Check out the latest Euro 2016 news.