Tulane Football

The Tigers could not find a better opponent to play after losing to Georgia last week. This is an opponent who could help mold a future champion. That may be distasteful to Green Wave fans, but it is also a testament to them and their team.

There was a time when, in the area from Baton Rouge to New Orleans, this game was big. Wheel-barrel rides were bet on this, the loser giving the winner a ride down main street in towns like Lutcher, Louisiana. Those days are gone. It is and has always been a big deal for the Tulane faithful to beat LSU. That is why you never can know what will happen in this game.

For the Tulane faithful, winning the possession of the Tiger Rag is tantamount to winning a crystal football. In that lies the trap for the LSU football team. Right now, though, Tulane may be what the doctor ordered. It is an opportunity for LSU to flex its talent muscle. It is an opportunity for LSU to find its defensive identity against a weaker foe.

Why is Tulane the best prescription for this? The Tulane football team is going to play above its ability, it always does against the Tigers. The Green Wave has never been intimidated by the Tigers. A lot of Tulane's players were passed up by LSU, and those players each have a chip on their shoulder to prove that was a mistake.

It you are not ready to play, Tulane will pop you in the mouth to let you know you're in a fight. Like in Rocky I, Tulane doesn't know it's supposed to lose, it thinks it's an actual football game, and it is coming to play.

That is exactly what the Tigers need right now. They need to face a team who wants to win, regardless of its talent. The Tigers need a game. They need a chance to dominate on defense. This game's timing couldn't be any better. It's an opportunity that the Tigers can't pass up, and I don't think they will. Last year's game has taught this team what to expect.

Tulane coach Bob Toledo is know for trick plays, and he is looking for a signature win for his stay at Tulane. That makes it good experience for the Alabama and Ole Miss games.

Both Nick Saban and Houston Nutt have tricks up their sleeves. The Mad Hatter, I believe, will be ready and have the Tigers ready. He is known as somewhat of a trickster himself, and knows what to expect.

Yes, the timing is right for this game.

Arkansas @ Texas

Spread: Texas -24

Look for Texas to blowout the young and inexperienced Razorbacks, as they have struggled in their first two games this season on both sides of the ball. Texas’ offense will light up the scoreboard and the defense will shut down the weak running game of Arkansas and force many third-and-longs.

Colt McCoy will have a field day and the Longhorns will be rolling.  Texas is a very talented team this year and would contend for a BCS title if they didn’t have such a tough schedule. 

Predicted Score: Texas 48, Arkansas 10
Take Texas

East Carolina @ Tulane

Spread: East Carolina -13

The team of experts at cover2in love to things while picking games, home underdogs and big game let downs in college football. The Green Wave may not win this game, but they will cover the 13 in their home opener. The Pirates are coming off back-to-back emotional wins and will let down against an inferior Tulane team. 

Predicted Score: East Carolina 27, Tulane 22
Take Tulane

Nevada @ Missouri

Spread: Missouri -27

Missouri’s offense lead by Chase Daniel will run wild against the Wolf Pack. Missouri has better athletes and are faster than Nevada. Sure, Nevada played fellow Big 12 opponent Texas Tech completely in Reno last Saturday but they had the home crowd, altitude, and wind to their advantage. Going to Missouri will be a daunting task.  

Plus, in last year’s season opener Nevada played at Nebraska and were slapped 52-10 as 21 point underdogs.  Knowing Nevada’s pistol offensive very well, they run a limited playback.  Roll out right or left and throw and comeback, or a zone read.

It will take Missouri no time, at most two possessions to figure it out. The minute the score gets out of hand and the run is eliminated, it will become a very long day for the Pack.

In Daniel’s Heisman hopeful season, head coach for the Tiger’s Gary Pinkle will let Chase air it out all he wants. 

Predicted Score: Missouri 51, Nevada 21
Take Missouri


North Texas @ LSU

Spread: LSU -42

The Tigers are going to abuse the Mean Green. The Mean Green lack the strength, speed, and execution LSU has and it will get ugly quick.  Hurricane Gustav has made the Tigers more eager to get on the field and get after it.

The only factor holding the Tigers back is their next week match up at Auburn. If the Tigers look ahead they will only win by 30.

Predicted Score: LSU 52, North Texas 3
Take LSU

UCLA @ BYU

Spread: BYU -8

Watching UCLA’s opener makes you wonder how Kevin Craft is the best option for the Bruins. Tennessee should have blown out the Bruins by at least 20, rather they lost in the final minutes and now reflect on back-to-back opening losses on the west coast (last year being at Cal). 

BYU should manhandle UCLA and make Craft look just as bad as he did in his first start. BYU has the size and strength of UCLA with more talent at the skill positions. BYU QB Max Hall is very efficient and RB Harvey Unga will carry the load.

Predicted Score: BYU 31, UCLA 10
Take BYU


Stanford @ TCU

Spread: TCU -13

TCU has looked very strong in their first two games led by QB Andy Dalton. Stanford was roughed up last week by Arizona State and will have a hard time trying to keep up with TCU’s speed. 

Stanford is led by a very weak senior quarterback in Tavita Pritchard, and when TCU gets a lead, the Cardinal will have to give up on a beast of a running back in Toby Gerhart and have to rely on Pritchard to make throws, which won’t happen.

Predicted Score: TCU 32, Stanford 17
Take TCU

Oregon @ Purdue

Spread: Oregon -8

Not much has been heard of Curtis Painter and the Boilermakers this year, but look out for Painter to light the scoreboard up. Even though the Ducks boast a strong secondary, Purdue has had much preparation. Look for this game to go over as well.

Predicted Score: Oregon 40, Purdue 35
Take Purdue
Take the Over of 61

Wisconsin @ Fresno St.

Spread: Wisconsin -1.5

This is a game I look for Fresno State to just out score Wisconsin. Pat Hill has one of the best teams he has had in the valley. Look for Fresno State to possible sneak into the BCS discussion this year much like other members of the WAC have the past two years. Wisconsin looks a little inexperienced, primary at the quarterback position.
  
Predicted Score: Wisconsin 21, Fresno St. 31
Take Fresno State

North Carolina @ Rutgers

Spread Rutgers -4
Look for a TJ Yates and the North Carolina offense to be clicking well in that they return 10 starters from last year. North Carolina has the athletes to be extremely impressive this year, but consistency is the only downside. However, this week on Thursday night, I look for the Tar Heels to be up for taking on a declining Rutgers team on the road.

North Carolina 35, Rutgers 31
Take North Carolina



Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech

Spread Virginia Tech -6.5

Look for Va. Tech to play tremendous assignment defense against a Georgia Tech option offense. Va. Tech will creating turnovers and play what the world has come to call Beamer Ball, or good special teams for those that are unfamiliar with the Hokies. I'm predicting Glennon to do what he has to and take care of the ball relying on their defense and strong run game.

Virginia Tech 24, Georgia Tech 10
Take Virginia Tech

Life is once again hard for the Crimson Tide players after a dismal showing against a below-average Tulane Green Wave team.  One week after dismantling a top 10 Clemson squad, Bama returned to their mediocre ways of shoddy offense and a much too forgiving defense.  A few, and I mean few, of the positives from the home opener for Bama were junior cornerback/punt return guru Javier Arenas, freshman running back sensation Mark Ingram, and steady linebacker Rolando McClain.  Arenas highlighted a mind-numbing first half with his 4th career punt return for a touchdown, which was listed as an 87 yard return but add the east-west yards to the north-southyards and you are pushing the century mark.  The game was over quick for Arenas when he left the game with a concussion due to a bone-jarring hit delivered by a Tulane special teamer.  Coincidentally, kicker Leigh Tiffin left the game the exact same way. 

Linebacker Rolando McClain ended the night with 14 tackles (9 solo) that helped Alabama prevent Tulane from scoring a touchdown.  The Tide has yet to surrender a 6 pointer through 2 games this season.  Rolando reminds me of a Latin American immigrant worker on the field, but instead of desperately looking for work, he is looking for tackles.  Es el pan nuestro de cada día, Rolando! (it is all in a days work)

Freshman Mark Ingram had the best offensive play of the night with a tough 15 yard run for a score in the second half to put Bama up 20-3.  The son of former NFL receiver Mark Ingram continues to impress with every touch of the ball.  This freshman just doesn't go down, at least not from one hit.

With all the positives from the game out of the way (yea, that's about it), it is time to turn the attention to the negatives.  Where do I begin?  Should I start with John Parker Wilson's uncanny ability to overthrow every receiver who has a defender beat down field?  Maybe I can start with the poor offensive line performance to control the line of scrimmage against a very understaffed Tulane defensive line.  How about I start with negative effects of injuries.

With big (understatement) left tackle Andre Smith sitting out with a knee sprain, Junior left guard Mike Johnson got the start at left tackle.  Redshirt Sophomore guard David Ross filled in at left guard for all of 2 minutes before right guard Marlon Davis left the game with a pulled hamstring.  This forced Ross to right guard and brought converted defensive tackle Bryan Motley into the game at left guard.  Musical chairs comes to mind after typing that. To say there was a dropoff in the performance would be putting it lightly.  They were pitiful.  Luckily for Saban and his Crimson Tide football team, they play Western Kentucky(the "get every player healthy because the SEC schedule is about to begin" game) next week which should serve to some younger players as valuable playing time and experience but Alabama hasn't allowed themselves that luxury lately.  They have been more inclinedto let teams like Western Kentucky, Tulane, Duke, Florida Intl, La. Monroe, etc(the list has ballooned over the past few years) hang around for 4 quarters forcing them to play the starters the entire game.   Louisiana Monroe didn't just hang around, they were victorious over Alabama last year in what was maybe the most embarrasing loss in the program's storied history.  Everyone wants to know what kind of player backup quarterback Greg McElroy is, but he never has the opportunity to play because JPW is on his back or overthrowing open receivers.  This horrid play prevents any backup from entering a game. Maybe JPW, in a selfish move, purposely plays poorly so he gets all the snaps in order to ascend up the record books.  For those of you into conspiracies, have fun with that one.  Without going off on a tangent(sarcasm), the hamstring injury to Marlon Davis doesn't seem to be serious and the concussed Javier Arenas and Leigh Tiffin(this particular kicker reminds me to not say anything about the debut of a freshman kicker who missed an extra point, missed a 37 yard field goal, then proceeded to kick the ball out of bounds on his first kickoff.  Is there a worse way to start a kicking career than that? I guess if he had given a Garo Yupremian  backward toss of the ball it could have been worse, but I am not going to say anything about this kicker because he is ,afterall, a true freshman) should be able to play in next weeks game.  It is a good thing too because for Bama, Western Kentucky is a juggarnaut on the schedule and they will need all the help they can get.

On to John Parker Wilson's performance.  It is a miracle this guy doesn't hold the NCAA record for interceptions with his constant lobbing of the football. He has yet to throw an interception this year mainly because of the dumbing down of the quarterback position by new offensive coordinator Jim McElwain. I will say his lobs this year have a little more zip on them than the previous two years but they sometimes resemble a slow-pitch softball game.  Note to Wilson:  Mike McCoy is 6'2, not 7'2. With the scabs on the o-line, JPW was put on his can 4 times.  Ouch.  Who has heard this before: Billy- "Did you hear JPW was sacked 4 times against a bad Tulane team Saturdee (for some reason in Alabama, the advanced age group pronounces the end of the days of the week with the "ee" sound instead of the "ay" sound.  I am stumped on this one.)  Bob-"Well shit, you'd be sacked 4 times if you had an offensive line like that!  Guess it's back to the drawin' board on Mondee"  I figured you had.  To Wilson's credit, he does have some wheels(common analogy for being able to run well, in this case, just well enough to escape decapitation) albeit, Ford Focus type wheels, for an underachieving quarterback.  He has fanagled his way out of grisly situations in the pocket only to have them upgraded to grim.  It is kind of like being upgraded from the middle seat of an airplane where you are pinned in between an unshowered Terrence Cody and a sickly Andre Smith, only to find that the witch at the check-in counter put you next to the family of John and Kate plus 8 (TLC reality show that follows the hellish life of a couple trying to raise twins and sextuplets. God Bless'em!) For Wilson, I expect his play this year will be dependent upon a healthy offensive line and productive(definition-having the power of producing; generative; creative: a productive effort See Alabama circa 1999) running attack.  We shall see.

The defense struggled to put much pressure on Tulane quarterback Kevin Moore and gave up countless short-to-medium routes.  With a huge dropoff in defensive line productivity from the Clemson game, it is no wonder that Rolando McClain and Don'ta Hightower(true freshman) combined for 25 tackles. Terrence Cody didn't get nearly the push on the Tulane offensive line as he did against Clemson.  Overrall, I thought the Tulane center did an outstanding job fending off the big man.  Cody obviously has stamina issues which should come as no surprise.  As long as the Bama defense keeps teams out of the endzone, the offense should(you never know with this team) be able to put enough points on the board to win some close ball games this year.

The proverbial Crimson Tide is out this week, but you never know when it might be coming back in. Oh yea, I have a message for Sports Illustrated:  For the love of God, please don't put Bama on your cover until they win a national championship.  It is like cheating on a test and having your teacher brag to the whole class about you getting an A.  You appear smart to your class, only to be exposed the next test when the Chinese guy is absent and you have nobody to cheat off of.  Not to say Bama can't get an A on the final exam this year, but they just need to put in the work(win) to get on the honor roll.  

OFF THIS WEEK: Tennessee, LSU (postponed due to hurricanes)

Thursday
(#24,#24)S. Carolina (1-0, 0-0) at Vanderbilt (0-0, 0-0)
7:30 CDT, ESPN
All Time Series: South Carolina 14-3
Wednesday’s Line: South Carolina -10

Both teams picked up blowout wins last week, but only Vandy can really feel good about the way they won.

Spurrier has benched original starting QB Beecher in favor of Chris Smelley who was average at best last season, but looked good in mop up duty last week.

Meanwhile the Commodores hope to get QB production like they did last week when Nickson accounted for 255 total yards and 3 TDs. The 'Dores also picked off 3 passes, so USC's QBs will have to be smart with the football.

Last year was Spurrier's first ever loss to Vanderbilt (14-1) and he wants no part of a 2-game losing streak to Vandy. While the offense will most likely sputter again, the defense is too strong for the 'Dores to counter. Nickson won't be able to find the same holes he did against Miami(Ohio) last week.

VU is just 1-8 in Nashville against the Gamecocks, soon to be 1-9. With revenge on their mind, look for the Gamecocks to earn a comfortable victory.

Straight Up Winner: South Carolina
Against the Spread: South Carolina

Saturday
Southern Miss (1-0) @ (#9,#10)Auburn (1-0, 0-0)
11:30 CDT, Raycom
All Time Series: Auburn 16-5
Wednesday’s Line: Auburn -17.5

The Tigers are coming off an impressive defensive performance against Louisiana-Monroe. Much like South Carolina though, the Tigers have a lot of room for improvement on the offensive end. While they gashed ULM for 320+ yds rushing, their QB tandem was... well... awful, finishing 13-27 for 85 yds, much of which came in garbage time.

The Golden Eagles, meanwhile, are coming off a huge offensive performance against ULaLa, running up more than 600 yds of offense.

While USM inexplicably fired long-time HC Bower last season, new HC Fedora made a big impression in Game 1. Not so much in game 2. The offense that ran wild against ULaLa will find much tougher sledding against these Tigers.

Auburn OC Tony Franklin says he's going to work on the QB rotation to try and shore up the offense. He'll need to get it figured out this week as conference play starts next weekend.

While this one will be closer than AU would like, the Tigers' stout D and stable of SEC-caliber RBs will be too much for USM to handle for 60 minutes.

Straight Up Winner: Auburn
Against the Spread: USM

Ole Miss (1-0, 0-0) @ (#20,#20)Wake Forest (1-0)
2:30 CDT, ABC
All Time Series: Wake Forest 1-0
Wednesday’s Line: Wake Forest -8.5

Both Ole Miss and Wake Forest are coming off Week 1 blowout wins and impressive offensive performances.

The Rebels handled Memphis while the Deacons took out Baylor. Neither football powerhouses, but both teams needed good starts to the 2008 season.

While Wake did most of their damage through the air - WFU QB Riley Skinner was on target hitting on 75% of his passes for 220 yds and 3 TDs - the Rebels used a power running game - 216 rush yds and 3 TDs to win Houston Nutt's debut as HC in Oxford.

If Hurricane Hanna has anything to say about this game, OM may keep it close enough to scare Wake. With a stable of good backs and a huge OL, a mudfest would favor the Rebels.

Chances are though, talent and experience will win out though. The Deacons have established themselves as one of the top programs in the ACC, and while that's not saying much, at this point, WFU is farther along in the game than the Rebels are.

Straight Up Winner: Wake Forest
Against the Spread: Wake Forest

Central Michigan (1-0, 0-0) @ (#2,#2)Georgia (1-0, 0-0)
2:30 CDT, FSN South
All Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: Georgia -24

The Chippewas roll into Athens Saturday afternoon looking for back-to-back victories to open the season for the first time since 2002. Obviously, it's not going to happen.

Apparently, calling the 'Dawgs off last weekend with the score 38-0 over a 1AA opponent wasn't the right call in the voters' minds as UGA dropped to #2 in both polls. This is just another example of how worthless polls are at this point.

Look for the 'Dawgs to play their starters more this week to establish a good, crisp rhythm heading into the first killer stretch of their ridiculous schedule. For that reason alone, the 'Dawgs may just cover the larger-than-wanted number.

Straight Up Winner: Georgia
Against the Spread: Georgia

Louisiana-Monroe (1-0) @ Arkansas (1-0, 0-0)
6:00 CDT (Little Rock)
All Time Series: Arkansas 7-0
Wednesday’s Line: Arkansas -13

After scraping by 1-AA Western Michigan last week, the Hogs welcome in ULM, fresh off being shellacked by Auburn.

Arkansas will be looking for a significantly better offensive performance. Arkansas has scored 44+ points in the last 4 meetings between these two schools, but they may score 24 this go round.

ULM has beaten 3 SEC teams since 1995, so an upset is not an impossibility. As bad as the Hogs looked in week 1, you gotta figure they'll bounce back a little better, right? At this point though, 2 TDs is probably a little much for Arkansas to give.

Straight Up Winner: Arkansas
Against the Spread: ULM

SE Louisiana (1-0) @ Mississippi State (0-1, 0-0)
6:00 CDT
All Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: No Line

The Bulldog offense was as bad last Saturday as it was in the Spring Game> They couldn’t get anything done and while the defense looked good at times, it’ll be without Jamar Chaney for the rest of the season. MSU will be fine without him against SELA this weekend. The offense though will need to improve.

SELA already has one road victory in the state of Mississippi (Alcorn St last week) and MSUhas lost inexplicable games at home before (Maine). It won’t happen again this weekend though. The Bully RBs will have an easy time with SELA and hopefully open up the passing game for the MSU QBs.

Straight Up Winner: Mississippi State
Against the Spread: N/A

Norfolk State (1-0) @ Kentucky (1-0, 0-0)
5:00 CDT
All Time Series: First Meeting
Wednesday’s Line: No Line

It’s a new era for the Big Blue Nation when they win a game with defense. The ‘cats smothered Louisville last week and will have another gimme this week. This is Norfolk State’s 2nd game ever against a 1A opponent, having been thrashed by Rutgers last year 59-0. UK could theoretically start the season by not giving up a defensive point in the first two games of the season.

A win Saturday will give UK HC Rich Brooks 27 wins, and will move him out of a tie for 6th on the school’s all-time list. He currently is tied with slow-talking Bill Curry. Big win for the Big Blue.

Straight Up Winner: Kentucky
Against the Spread: N/A

Tulane (0-0) @ (#13, #17)Alabama (1-0, 0-0)
6:00 CDT
All Time Series: Alabama 26-11-3
Wednesday’s Line: Alabama -30

No team across the country had a more impressive opening game than the Tide did. They dominated an overmatched Clemson team from the word “go” and basically embarrassed them on national TV. They’ll be sky high when they take the field Saturday night against Tulane.

The Green Wave will be making their season debut, so who knows how crisp they’ll be. Actually, it won’t matter how well they operate. They’ll be overmatched against this Tide team, particularly with this being the home opener in Tuscaloosa.

This is the line this week that I just can’t get a feel for. Alabama should beat them by 4 TDs, but how focused will they be after such a perfect performance last week? With the Tide having another gimme next week against Western Kentucky, I can’t see Saban playing his starters too deep into this one. I see something like a 38-10 game in this one.

Straight Up Winner: Alabama
Against the Spread: Tulane

Miami (1-0) @ (#5, #5)Florida (1-0, 0-0)
7:00 CDT, ESPN
All Time Series: Miami 28-25
Wednesday’s Line: Florida -21.5

It’s been 23 years since the Gators beat the Hurricanes and UF will have their best shot to break that 6-game losing streak to Miami Saturday night in the Swamp. Both teams looked good in season-opening romps, though neither involved stiff competition.

For the Gators, they’ll welcome back WR/RB/BMF Percy Harvin. As good as UF’s offense was last week against Hawaii, you’ve got to think it can’t hurt to bring a 1st team All-SEC performer back into the mix. With less Tebow and more explosive speed at every position, the Gators should have no problems scoring against Miami.

The Gator secondary should have another solid outing Saturday as the ‘Canes brought back just 11 starters from last year’s team. Prior to last week, no Miami QB had thrown a pass in a college game. In addition to the hype that naturally surrounds this game, QB Robert Marve will be making his debut for UM this weekend as well.

This should be a good chance for the Gators to let off some steam and beat a rival to a pulp. No current Gator or Hurricane has played in this rivalry, but they know all about it. It’s embarrassing for UF to have gone 2 ½ decades without beating UM and they’ll do their best to make it up to their fans Saturday night. Urban Meyer’s not much on letting up on lesser foes, so the 3 TDs is reasonable.

Straight Up Winner: Florida
Against the Spread: Florida

The Green Wave have to replace arguably the best runner in school history, but things appear to be looking up in New Orleans.

Coach: Bob Toledo

2007 Record: 4-8, 3-5 C-USA

Returning Starters: 17 (Offense: 8, defense: 7, kicker/punter: 2)

Top Returnees: LT Troy Kropog, LG Michael Parenton, WR Jeremy Williams, DE Reggie Scott, LB Evan Lee, CB Josh Lumar, LB David Skehan

Key Losses: RB Matt Forte, C Aryan Barto, DT Antonio Harris, DT Avery Williams, S Joe Goosby

2008 Schedule

Sept. 6 @ Alabama

Sept. 13 East Carolina

Sept. 20 Louisiana-Monroe

Sept. 25 SMU

Oct. 4 Army

Oct. 11 @ UTEP

Oct. 25 Rice

Nov. 1 @ LSU

Nov. 8 @ Houston

Nov. 15 UAB

Nov. 22 @ Tulsa

Nov. 29 @ Memphis

Key game: For sentimental reasons, it would have the Oct. 4 homecoming matchup against Army. Tulane will play that game at Tad Gormley Stadium for the first time since 2004. Previously, the Green Wave played three straight (2002-04) homecoming contests at the stadium and the 2005 game was scheduled to be there as well, but Hurricane Katrina changed all that.

2008 Outlook

The Green Wave will have a big hole to fill in replacing the nation’s second-leading rusher from 2007, Matt Forte, who likely will be starting in the NFL for the Chicago Bears. Andre Anderson will take that role. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry in the spring game and convinced coach Bob Toledo: “He’s got to carry the load as a running back next fall,” Toledo said.

Tulane also likely will be replacing 2007 starting QB Anthony Scelfo. Toledo allowed Scelfo to skip spring practice to concentrate on baseball, and he emerged as one of C-USA’s top players, getting drafted in the eighth round of this year’s draft. He could return in the fall, but it’s unlikely.

“Obviously, Anthony had a chance last year to show what he could do. And we know what he can do. He’s involved with baseball now, and this summer he’s going to be involved with baseball. He’s missing a lot of football. It’s one of those things where we need someone to come in here and throw the football efficiently and effectively. And if it is Scelfo in fall camp, then it may be him. But right now, it is down to basically two people — (Kevin) Moore and (Joe) Kemp,” Toledo said.

Moore, a sophomore, shared the job with Scelfo last year, so that may give him a leg up, but Kemp shined even though he’s only a freshman. Whoever takes the snaps will be protected by a line that returns four starters. And whoever wins the job will be throwing often to receiver Jeremy Williams, who had 46 catches, 773 receiving yards and five TDs last year but was much improved this spring.

On defense, the strength should be up front. With the decision to move senior David Skehan from strong safety to outside linebacker, the front seven returns six starters, although it must replace the combined 10 sacks of departed Antonio Harris and Avery Williams. Watch for sophomore Tony Bryant to step in and make a name for himself this year.

In May, eleven conference commissioners and Notre Dame's athletic director met to discuss the Bowl Championship Series, major college football's current postseason format.

Much has been made of the fact that SEC commissioner Mike Slive proposed the popular "plus-one" update of the BCS formula. In essence, the plus-one is a four-team seeded playoff.

Proponents point out that the method would expand the pool of possible title-game participants to four teams. This, they say, would enable any team with a legitimate claim to a title shot play for it on the field. Its small size would not devalue the regular season the way a larger-scale playoff would; with only four spots, one untimely loss could still knock a team from consideration.

Opponents cite that a four-team playoff would generally still leave controversy over the worthiness of its participants-- the fighting would just be over who's number four, rather than number two. The consensus is that plus-one would quickly expand to a larger-scale playoff, which none of the commissioners or school presidents want.

Additionally, the Big Ten and Pac Ten conferences are more interested in keeping their traditional ties to the Rose Bowl than implementing a playoff system.  But it isn't just those two conferences opposed to a change. Everyone at the BCS's May meeting, save for Slive and ACC commissioner John Swofford, rejected the plus-one idea.

While there are many more ins, outs, and what-have-yous in the discussion of college football's postseason, this article's focus is on how a plus-one format would have affected the postseasons during the BCS era.

There is no specific plus-one model that has taken root, so for the purposes of this article, we'll choose one.

The Model

Any format for a plus-one will necessarily use the BCS standings. Simply taking the top four teams of the final BCS rankings would make sense; however, it seems reasonable that there should be a clause to include the possibility for a team from outside the six "power" conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, and Big East).

Let's assume such a rule would be in place, specifically: if any team finishes the regular season undefeated, with a strength-of-schedule ranked in the upper 25% of FBS teams, they automatically receive a berth in the plus-one, regardless of final BCS rank.

To keep it safe, we'll limit it so that only the highest-ranked team outside the BCS top 4 can use this automatic bid. Thus, only one undefeated team outside of the top 4 could bump out at BCS top-4 team--and only if the top-4 team was not also undefeated.

Some pundits want the stipulation that every team in the plus-one must be a conference champion. This automatically assumes that the second-best team in a conference can't be among the top four teams nationally--a clear fallacy. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume there is no such stipulation.

The History (1998-2002)

Now that we know how our plus-one model works, lets look at how it would have changed each of the last ten bowl seasons. First, a few notes:

Based on the way voting has gone for the final BCS polls the last two years, it's safe to assume that poll voters would re-evaluate how they ranked teams if they knew that the top four would play off.

Also, the BCS format has changed radically in its ten years. For simplicity's sake, we'll use the BCS rankings in place during that year.

Any instance where the voting and/or format change would likely have affected the top-4 will be duly noted.

No attempts will be made to determine who would have won the National Championship under a plus-one format, and the information discussed is strictly pre-bowls.

1998

BCS top 5 (losses in parentheses):

1. Tennessee (0)
   
2. Florida State (1)
   
3. Kansas State (1)
4. Ohio State (1)
5. UCLA (1)

Other undefeateds: #10 Tulane (schedule strength: 96)

Controversy: Kansas State was not invited to a BCS bowl, despite being ranked third. Tulane also wasn't invited to a BCS bowl, despite finishing undefeated and ranked 10th in the final BCS poll.

Plus-One: Tulane would be excluded based on their poor schedule strength. It's very possible the final rankings would be different in the present format. Additionally, Kansas State lost the Big 12 Championship game to Texas A&M, which would introduce questions about their worthiness.

(1) Tennessee vs. (4) Ohio State

(2) Florida State vs. (3) Kansas State.

Analysis: The season ended with one major-conference undefeated team. Having a plus-one would simply move the controversy over the second-ranked team to an even more controversial decision for second, third, and fourth. Kansas State's status as a conference non-champion would be even more controversial.

Conclusion: A plus one would have at least as many problems as the old BCS, resulting in no great improvement.

Grades: BCS: B+; Plus-One: B

1999

BCS top 5 (losses in parentheses):

1. Florida State (0)
2. Virginia Tech (0)
3. Nebraska (1)
4. Alabama (2)
5. Tennessee (2)
   

Other undefeateds: #12 Marshall (ss: 93)

Controversy: Kansas State, despite having only one loss, was hurt again because of poor schedule strength and ranked below teams with two losses. Marshall finished undefeated but had poor schedule strength. Neither team was invited to a BCS bowl.

Plus-One: All of the top four teams were conference champions. However, since the final standings had only two major-conference undefeateds at the top, the need for a plus-one playoff is questionable at best. Additionally, the fourth-seed would be a two-loss team, which would undoubtedly call into question the necessity of a four-team playoff.

(1) Florida State vs. (4) Alabama

(2) Virginia Tech vs. (3) Nebraska

Analysis: This was a year in which a single championship game could easily be deemed adequate without controversy. Expanding the field to four teams would actually introduce far more undo controversy due to disparate records and debatable worthiness of participants.

Conclusion: The plus-one would have been a downgrade from the old BCS.

Grades: BCS: A+; Plus-One: B-

2000

BCS top 5 (losses in parentheses):

1. Oklahoma (0)
2. Florida State (1)
3. Miami (1)
4. Washington (1)
5. Virginia Tech (1)
   

Other undefeateds: None

Controversy: Florida State lost to Miami earlier in the year, and Washington was the only team to have beaten Miami. All three teams had one loss, and all three had a legitimate claim to being the second-ranked team. Virginia Tech's one loss was to Miami. Similarly, Oregon State lost only to Washington. There was only one undefeated team, so the controversy was in determining their opponent.

Plus-One: A plus-one would have allowed the three teams with legitimate second-place claims to take part in the plus-one. All of the top four were conference champions. Fifth-ranked Virginia Tech and sixth-ranked Oregon State were not, losing on head-to-head.

(1) Oklahoma vs. (4) Washington

(2) Florida State vs. (3) Miami

Analysis: A plus-one would clear up the controversy surrounding the title game's participants. Complaints by the fifth- and sixth-place teams would hold far less water than the complaints by the third- and fourth-place teams did under the BCS system.

Conclusion: A plus-one would have been a great improvement over the old BCS.

Grades: BCS: C; Plus-One: A

2001

BCS top 5 (losses in parentheses):

1. Miami (0)
2. Nebraska (1)
3. Colorado (2)
4. Oregon (1)
5. Florida (2)

Other undefeateds: None

Controversy: Nebraska lost their regular season finale against Colorado 62-36. Colorado played in the Big 12 Championship game and won; Nebraska did not even play in it. Oregon, ranked #2 in the AP poll, was left on the outside looking in.

Plus-One: Again, a lone team finished the regular season undefeated, so the search was for their opponent. A plus-one would expand the field to include worthy participants who would otherwise have been shut out. Nebraska's status as a conference non-champion could create problems.

(1) Miami vs. (4) Oregon

(2) Nebraska vs. (3) Colorado.

Analysis: The team with the most legitimate case for inclusion, Oregon, would have a chance to play for a championship with the plus-one format. Conference non-champion Nebraska would participate, and have a rematch with a Colorado team to whom they had just lost badly. The inclusion of Nebraska and two-loss Colorado would likely cause uproar amongst some teams outside the top 4.

Conclusion: Though a plus-one would clear up some controversy, it would not eliminate all and indeed create some more. A plus-one would be at best only a slight improvement over the old BCS.

Grades: BCS: C+; Plus-One: B-

2002

BCS top 5 (losses in parentheses):

1. Miami (0)
2. Ohio State (0)
3. Georgia (1)
4. USC (2)
5. Iowa (1)
   

Other undefeateds: None

Controversy: Very little. There was a clear-cut one and two, with no other major teams laying legitimate claim to title participation.

Plus-One: A plus-one would invite controversy over who the third- and fourth-seed teams would be. USC, with two losses, did not win its conference. Neither did one-loss Iowa. Washington State defeated USC and won the Pac 10, but lost to Ohio State earlier in the year; but Iowa finished with a better record, having not played Ohio State. It is likely that the final poll would have been different if voters were consciously voting-in the teams for a plus-one. Using the existing rankings:

(1) Miami vs. (4) USC

(2) Ohio State vs. (3) Georgia

Analysis: The muddled situation between the fourth- through sixth-place teams could conceivably have extended to Oklahoma and Kansas State. Each team ended the season with just two losses, and could make a legitimate case to be included over USC--Oklahoma as Big 12 Champ, and Kansas State because they beat USC earlier in the season. While Georgia's case for #3 was easy, the fourth seed would have created huge controversy.

Conclusion: A plus-one would have created far more problems than the old BCS format, which neatly matched-up the consensus top two without controversy.

Grades: BCS: A+; Plus-One: C-

Continue on to the next article in the series here. Part II details the years from 2003 to 2007, then reaches a verdict on the plus-one option.

Ask any Bears fan about Chicago's running game during the 2007 season and they will likely change the subject to something completely non-football related.

"We are a football team that comes off the bus running," says Head Coach Lovie Smith.

We may come off the bus running, but I guarantee you that we don't make it past that last step of the bus before we're flat on our face.

The Chicago Bears ranked dead last in the NFL with an average of 3.1 yards per carry.

In 2005 the Bears used their fourth overall pick in the draft on Texas running back Cedric Benson. At the time, Benson was being hailed as the best back in the draft with the strength to break tackles, and the speed to go the distance. 

What wasn't to like about him? He put up amazing numbers at Texas in his senior year. 1,824 yards with a 5.6 yards per carry average and 19 touchdowns. Sounds like a first rounder all the way.

After a disappointing 2007 season, the Bears were once again in the market for a reliable ball carrier.

They addressed this need at running back in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft. With the 44th overall pick, the Bears selected Tulane running back Matt Forte.

The Bears fell in love with Matt Forte the minute they scouted him. At 6' 1" 224 lbs, he's a tough runner who can run between the tackles and has the speed to turn the corner. He is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield catching 103 passes for 985 yards and five touchdowns during his four years with the Tulane Green Waves.

Forte broke all sorts of rushing records with an outstanding senior year. Rushing for well over 2,000 yards averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 23 touchdowns, Forte looked like a first round talent.

“Until somebody proves that they’re the guy, then we have to make sure that we create as much competition at [running back] to make sure we get that done,” said general manager Jerry Angelo in an April, 25th interview. The Bears believe strongly that they have created that competition by selecting Matt Forte.

“I’m happy to be drafted by the Chicago Bears, especially as a running back,” Forte said in an interview on the Chicago Bears official website. “They have a great history of running backs that came through there. Hopefully I can take over and become one of those guys who makes history as a Chicago Bear just like they did.”

Forte will compete for the starting job against Benson this June when training camp starts."It’s not going to be given to me. I’m going to have to work hard and come in and compete. It’s a great chance for me to show I can play in this league and to do good and become a great running back in the NFL.” Matt Forte seems eager to begin his NFL career and has confidence that he can come in and make the starting roster by September.

Don't be surprised if, on September 7th at Indianapolis, number 32 is not lining up in the backfield. 

Running under the radar is nothing new for former Tulane runningback Matt Forte.

Coming out of Slidell High School in Slidell, Louisiana, Forte was passed on by most Division I schools, including the mighty LSU Tigers, who are only an hour away.

Forte is quoted as saying, "I chose Tulane because they (the coaches) really wanted me,” on his website MattForte25.com.

Forte split time during his first two seasons, then suffered a knee injury during his junior year.

Many runningbacks struggle to recover from a knee injury, but Forte excelled during his senior season.

As the only offensive weapon on a terrible team, Forte amassed awe-inspiring numbers.

Good teams are expected to destroy inferior competition, and Forte did just that.

Forte had rushing totals of 342, 303, 278, 209, 202, 194, and 171 yards. Forte also gained 73 yards against LSU, which was more yards than the Tigers had surrendered to any team at that point in the season.

All of this is even more impressive considering the major lack of talent surrounding Forte at Tulane. Forte had only three games with less than 25 carries and two games of 40 or more carries.

Aside from the production, Forte has the size and speed to match. He’s a man at 6’2", 223 lbs. He ran a 4.46 second 40-yard dash. His time was faster than Felix Jones and Jonathon Stewart.

Forte is a lot like Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall, except he doesn’t have the exposure. He reminds me of another Louisiana product that has proven to be a quality runningback in the NFL: Brandon Jacobs of the New York Giants.

Most mock drafts have Forte going somewhere in rounds 2-4. He will be a steal, and could allow teams like the Bears or Panthers to address another need earlier in the draft and still get their power back later in the draft.

No matter what, if Forte falls out of the first round, someone will find themselves a gift.

This week, Urban Meyer's one-loss Gators take a trip to Death Valley to face the undefeated LSU Tigers. 

It's the game of the week according to ESPN's College Gameday crew—who're yet again headed down to Baton Rouge.

#1 LSU Tigers: In the latest AP poll, the Tigers got 33 first place votes, one more than USC, thus controversially putting LSU in the one slot. 

LSU didn't have any answers for Tulane's high-pressure defense and intensity in the first half.  Fortunately for the Tiger faithful, LSU was able to outscore Tulane 24-0 in the second half and pull away to win 34-9. 

LSU will have to play a much more complete game Saturday if they want to surmount the Gators. 

QB Matt Flynn's stats are struggling, but his leadership is still evident. Backup Ryan Perriloux is rotated in every once in a while to keep Flynn fresh. 

LSU HB Jacob Hester has scored in every game except one (Midd. Tenn. St.).  Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy and Charles Scott can also take control of a game. 

LSU WR Brandon LaFell has been solid this year with almost 20 receptions and seems to have a thing for big games.  LSU is hoping to return Early Doucet from a groin injury this week. Other notable recievers include Demetrius Byrd and Jared Mitchell. 

The Offensive Line looked god-awful against the Green Wave as Flynn got sacked over and over again.

The defense is the big reason that LSU is so tough to take down, and I don't see Florida scoring more than 14 points on the Tigers.

#9 Florida Gators: Florida's ranking dropped from #4 to #9 after losing to Auburn on a game-winning field goal. They had to kick twice thanks to an Urban Meyer timeout.

Despite the loss, Tim Tebow still had a solid game with a rushing and passing TD.  He also leads the team in rushing yards.  He's pretty much superman.

The only notable running back is Kestahn Moore—as the Gators' offense really doesn't involve many handoffs to the tailback.  Florida hasn't had a great runner since Emmitt Smith.

Florida has some pretty good receivers, led by Percy Harvin.  If Tebow's superman, then Harvin's Batman.  Other notable receivers are Cornelius Ingram, Louis Murphy, Jarred Fayson and Andre Caldwell (injured).

The defense lost 8 starters this year and it shows.  In their 3 SEC games, each opponent has scored at least 20 points.

Prediction: LSU's defense will overpower Florida's offense while Florida's defense will get overpowered by LSU's offense.  31-10 Tigers.