College Football Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: October 25th 2008
Cincinnati @ U Connecticut u45.0: Saturday October 25th ‘08 12:00p
This Saturdays Big East combatants the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) and the Connecticut Huskies (5-2) enter into this tilt with identical five win seasons. The Huskies, however, have lost two straight games, to North Carolina and Rutgers respectively. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are currently on a four game winning streak, and are clicking on all cylinders. Both these teams have top flight defenses.
Connecticut allows opposing offenses to average just 17.3 PPG overall, and 13.7 PPG at home in Rentscheler Field, which ranks them second in the conference. The Huskies secondary has been especially staunch, allowing 182.6 ypg, while snagging nine interceptions, and allowing foes to convert only five touchdowns through the air.
The Connecticut front has been a hand full for opposing offensive lines as is evident by their 18 sacks. I expect no changes today. The Bearcats, are known for their balanced offense, but their D, is extremely steady, having allowed only 19 PPG.
The defense has been very tough against opposing ground attacks limiting their opposition to an average of 94.5 YPG, and just three TDS on the season. Thats not good omen for a UConn team that uses the ground attack, almost exclusively behind RB Donald Brown to move the chains.
In conclusion, I expect this contest is going to be a hard fought, low scoring, smash mouth affair. DEFENSE, DEFENSE and more DEFENSE.
Final notes & Key Trends: UConn is 17-6 L/23 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. Cincinnati is 8-0 L/8 UNDER in October games, with the average combined score ringing in at 37 PPG. Play on the UNDER, courtesy of Alex Smart
Illinois -2.5 (-110): Saturday October 25th ‘08 12:00p
The Wisconsin Badgers have been in a tailspin since blowing a double-digit lead at Michigan, and we do not see them recovering this week either vs. a good Illinois Fighting Illini squad.
The Badgers started the season 3-0,but the first two wins were vs. Cupcakes and they did not play particularly well in their 13-10 win at Fresno State either. They have since gone 0-4 however, and they lost their last two games 48-7 here at home to Penn State and 38-16 on the road at Iowa.
We do not expect that struggling defense to suddenly rise up here, as the Illini are averaging 36.1 points and an impressive 484.4 total yards of offense per game.
Illinois has also been extremely balanced, averaging 279.7 passing yards on an outstanding 9.4 yards per pass attempt, and 194,1 rushing yards on a very good 4.8 yards per carry.
Illinois quarterback Juice Williams is completing 60 percent of his passes and has 16 touchdown passes vs. just seven interceptions, and when you add in their powerful running game, we look for a rather handy Illinois road win here.
CFB Free Pick: Illinois -2.5 (-110), courtesy of LT Profits
Texas A&M +3.0 (-110) - Saturday October 25 ‘08 7:00p
The Texas A&M Aggies and Iowa State Cyclones just may be the two worst teams in the BIG 12, but at least the Aggies have a decent passing attack, and they did give Texas Tech fits for three quarters last week.
Texas A&M is averaging 238.4 passing yards per game on a very respectable 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Their quarterback Jerrod Johnson is completing 62 percent of his passes, and he has 11 touchdown passed vs. just four interceptions. Best of all, he will be passing against an Iowa State defense that is generously allowing 411.0 total yards per game, including 234.1 yards in the air on 8.6 yards per attempt.
Granted, the Aggies are just as bad defensively, but the Cyclones simply lack the offensive weapons to take advantage of this.
Iowa State has done virtually nothing offensively since the start of Big 12 play, averaging just 16.7 points and 280.0 totals yards per game in conference play. They have been equally inept on the ground (94.3 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush) and in the air (185.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per pass) in three conference games.
These teams are just about equal in every area except passing offense, and therein lies the key to this game as we look for Johnson to pass A&M to the mild upset on the road.
CFB Free Pick: Texas A&M +3 (-110), courtesy of LT Profits
Boston College +2.5: Sat Oct 25 ‘08 12:00p
Confidence building win for Boston College last week, as they outplayed and out-gained Virginia Tech 28-23 despite five turnovers and two interception returns for touchdowns.
Just the opposite for North Carolina, as the Tar Heels blew a late lead and then lost in overtime to Virginia, 16-13. That loss marked the third time in North Carolina’s last four contests that the game was decided in the closing minute, and the second ACC defeat that saw the Tar Heels blow a fourth quarter lead. North Carolina had also been out-gained in their three previous contests before holding the total yardage advantage over the weak Virginia offense.
Now the Tar Heels will face Boston College’s superior running attack and the ACC’s no. 3-ranked offense, and struggle on the ground themselves against the ACC’s no. 2 defense.
North Carolina’s offense and specifically the passing game is significantly less efficient since quarterback TJ Yates went out with injury. And now with top wide receiver and kick return specialist Brandon Tate out for the year, the offense struggled even more against a sub-par Virginia defense. Boston College is more confident, healthier and the better team right now in an underdog role.
Fly with the Eagles, courtesy of Fairway Jay