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Pros and Cons of Carolina Hurricanes Trading No. 5 Pick in NHL Draft

Jun 2, 2015
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JUNE 28:  General Manager Ron Francis of the Carolina Hurricanes attends the 2014 NHL Entry Draft at Wells Fargo Center on June 28, 2014 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JUNE 28: General Manager Ron Francis of the Carolina Hurricanes attends the 2014 NHL Entry Draft at Wells Fargo Center on June 28, 2014 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)

As an increasingly clear top five emerges in the 2015 NHL draft class, the Carolina Hurricanes' No. 5 overall selection is rising in value.

Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis noted to the News & Observer's Chip Alexander last month that he isn't interested in trading up any higher into the first-round order. He expressed more willingness to trade down, however, subtly labeling the Hurricanes' selection as open to trade offers.

Boston College Eagles defenseman Noah Hanifin and OHL center Mitchell Marner compose the bottom end of the consensus top five prospects and could fall to the 'Canes at No. 5. Big men Lawson Crouse and Mikko Rantanen, meanwhile, compose the elite of a diverse second tier and offer the 6'4" size the 'Canes desperately need.

My series in May, which analyzed the pros and cons of each, is summarized below (links can be found in the above paragraph):

PlayerProsConsPick Range
Noah HanifinDOffensive defenseman but also strong defensively, NHL-ready, low risk of failure'Canes need prospect forwards much more than defensemen3rd-5th
Mitch MarnerCRecorded 126 points in 63 OHL games this season, very skilled scorer and playmakerAlarmingly undersized at 160 pounds, not very strong or physical3rd-5th
Mikko RantanenRWReliable forward with 6'4" size, used to facing pro competition, NHL-readyDoesn't take advantage of his size particularly well, lesser upside than others5th-8th
Lawson CrouseLWVery big (6'4", 212 lbs) and powerful, high hockey IQ, dominating checkerPut up mediocre scoring stats in OHL, struggles to translate ability into results5th-10th

If Francis does trade down, it can be considered essentially impossible for him to land Hanifin or Marner. Nevertheless, Crouse, Rantanen and a number of other strong players are more likely to remain available further down the top 10.

Cons to Trading Pick

LONDON, ON - SEPTEMBER 26:  Will Bitten #41 of the Plymouth Whalers checks Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at Budweiser Gardens on September 26, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. The Whalers defeated the Knights 5-0. (Photo by Clau
LONDON, ON - SEPTEMBER 26: Will Bitten #41 of the Plymouth Whalers checks Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at Budweiser Gardens on September 26, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. The Whalers defeated the Knights 5-0. (Photo by Clau

The consequences of dealing the pick are simple: losing a guarantee of getting Hanifin, Marner or the even more highly touted Dylan Strome, all of whom pack potential as future superstars and franchise centerpieces.

Stay fifth and get the leftovers of the best top five in a decade. That's the current situation for the 'Canes, should they stay put, and it's hardly an undesirable situation.

While Hanifin may not be a forward and Marner may not have a big frame, they're undoubtedly the best players available (outside of the unreachable top few) and the most upside-laden 18-year-olds on the table this June.

Pros to Trading Pick

NEWARK, NJ - JUNE 30: Ron Francis of the Carolina Hurricanes handles duties at the 2013 NHL Draft at the Prudential Center on June 30, 2013 in Newark, New Jersey.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
NEWARK, NJ - JUNE 30: Ron Francis of the Carolina Hurricanes handles duties at the 2013 NHL Draft at the Prudential Center on June 30, 2013 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Mathematics show that, historically, the difference between the No. 5 and No. 6 selections is almost irrelevant.

According to work done by Michael Schuckers of St. Lawrence University, the value difference between the two is not even worth the last pick in the seventh round. In other words, trading down from fifth to sixth should theoretically not warrant even the draft's very last pick in return.

Pick No.Team
5Carolina Hurricanes
6New Jersey Devils
7Philadelphia Flyers
8Columbus Blue Jackets
9San Jose Sharks
10Colorado Avalanche

And trading from No. 5 to even No. 8, moreover, should garner only the eighth pick of the fourth round in return.

Fortunately (for the 'Canes), NHL GMs are more brash than calculators, and the extra hype surrounding this year's draft, in particular, will feed those impulses even more.

For Francis, the reasonableness of trading down from his current spot to one later in the top 10 will depend on what he is offered on the trade market in return.

A second-round pick? Probably a yes. A fourth-rounder? Probably not.

Depending on how many selections the 'Canes drop (assuming they do), Crouse and Rantanen may still be available. If Francis would have picked one of the pair at No. 5, trading down to do the same would be an excellent decision.

But trading down could also put a plethora of other prospects on the map.

Possible Other Picks

ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22:  Ivan Provorov #9 of Team Orr skates during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Cherry at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22: Ivan Provorov #9 of Team Orr skates during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Cherry at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

Ivan Provorov, a 6'0" offensive defenseman, rode an impressive debut season with the WHL's Brandon Wheat Kings from a projected middle-round to a projected top-10 NHL selection. He's ranked ahead of Rantanen, Crouse and others by Sportsnet, but Provorov is still a year or more away from being professionally ready.

Pavel Zacha, a 6'3" grinding center, is marred by a number of uncertainties—he was suspended twice in the OHL in 2014-15, he's had injury problems in recent years and it's hard to tell which forward position he's best suited for—but he's one of the most talented players in the draft and has starred for the Czech Republic in international competitions.

Zach Werenski, a 6'2" playmaking defenseman, is a Mike Green-type offensive blueliner with power-play quarterbacking experience and elite mobility for a rearguard. The University of Michigan product, however, is younger than most and still has room to improve defensively (especially in terms of positioning and gap-closing).

Mathew Barzal, a 5'11" sleek center, has also struggled through injuries—and that's an especial concern for him, considering his style of play and lack of bulk—but produced well when healthy for the WHL's Seattle Thunderbirds and possesses superb skating ability, in terms of both speed and agility.

Timo Meier, a 6'1" power winger, is a rare well-rounded, balanced player in the 2015 class. It's hard to point out a major flaw in either his physical characteristics or his playing style, but he lacks superstar upside and falls slightly short of Rantanen's resume.

Final Thoughts

The 'Canes and Ron Francis won't be without diverse options, should they deliberately slide down closer to the bottom of the top 10.

But, as one would expect, the quality of those options and the certainty of a successful draft pick do both decrease at, say, No. 8 compared to No. 5.

The decision on whether or not to trade down should rest on the offers that other teams present to the Hurricanes.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.

Pros and Cons of Noah Hanifin as Possible Carolina Hurricanes Draft Pick

May 26, 2015
MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 26:  Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States passes the puck near Otto Rauhala #29 of Team Finland during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 26, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.  (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 26: Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States passes the puck near Otto Rauhala #29 of Team Finland during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 26, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)

Originally considered a near-guaranteed top-four selection, Noah Hanifin has gradually become a possibility for the Carolina Hurricanes at No. 5.

Hanifin, a 6'2" defenseman from Boston College, stands out as the consensus best player at his position in the 2015 NHL draft. He's a power-play quarterback with size, a puck-moving rearguard with god-like hockey sense.

But Mitchell Marner's ascension into top-four conversation—both the Coyotes at No. 3 and the Maple Leafs at No. 4 could give him strong consideration—could serve to bump Hanifin down into Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis' clutches.

The past year, moreover, has certainly proved that Francis plans to build a defensive identity for the 'Canes moving forward. But is Hanifin's impressive upside good enough to justify again ignoring a diverse range of elite prospect forwards?

Note: This prospect evaluation from a 'Canes perspective is the fourth in a series on potential selections. Read about the pros and cons of Marnerof Lawson Crouse and of Mikko Rantanen in previous installments.

PositionDefenseman
Age18
Height6'2"
Weight205 lbs.
2014-15 TeamBoston College (NCAA)
2014-15 Stat Line37 GP, 5G, 18A, 23P
CSS Ranking (N.A. Skaters)3rd
ISS Ranking5th

Pros

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 26:  Sebastian Aho #26 of Team Finland pushes Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States into the boards during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 26, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.  (P
MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 26: Sebastian Aho #26 of Team Finland pushes Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States into the boards during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 26, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (P

Hanifin has anything and everything that NHL teams look for in defensemen: Size and a full frame, strong positioning, active stick play, awareness of both opponents and teammates around him, accurate breakout-pass ability, a booming point shot and a smooth, unflappable style that settles the play down around him.

Indeed, one is hard-pressed to find any significant weaknesses in Hanifin's entire game.

"By all accounts, Hanifin...is not a robot, but his brain processes hockey with a machine-like efficiency," writes Connor Mellas of NHL.com. "His positioning is superb, his instincts are deadly, and his offensive and defensive decision-making continues to improve and impress."

SeasonTeamGPPoints
2012-13St. Sebastian's (HS)2834
2013-14U.S. National U174532
U.S. National Development Team3120
2014-15Boston College (NCAA)3723

The Massachusetts native is labeled by all as a decidedly smart player.

His understanding of where the puck will go (when defending) or needs to go (when attacking) are special. He seems to judge the risks and benefits of the most minor pinch or check on the fly, knowing when to act conservatively and when to take a chance.

He committed just eight penalties in 37 games for B.C. this season, partially due to strong discipline and partially due to his ability to avoid situations that would force him into taking one. He also missed a mere one game to injury.

Per his Future Considerations scouting report, which abounds with praise:

A smart and powerful two-way force…big, but very mobile...moves well with good speed and agility…uses his strength and reach very well when he rushes the puck, and he is tough to contain when he gets going…is skilled and confident with the puck and has the ability to take it end-to-end…used his size and body well to contain players and box them out on the walls…supremely skilled quarterbacking the power play.

By the numbers, Hanifin had a productive freshman year for the Eagles, tallying 23 points.

He also recorded two assists in five games for the U.S.A. in the U20 World Junior Championships after accumulating five points in seven games in the U18 WJC the previous year.

Cons

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 28:  Frederik Tiffels #17 of Team Germany tries to get the puck past Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 28, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Cana
MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 28: Frederik Tiffels #17 of Team Germany tries to get the puck past Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 28, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Cana

For all of Hanifin's excellence, however, he may not be the right fit for the Hurricanes specifically.

Ron Francis has bolstered the franchise's defensive prospect base tremendously in the past year by drafting Haydn Fleury at No. 7 last June, giving AHLers Michal Jordan and Danny Biega NHL stints in 2014-15 (to surprising success) and acquiring Roland McKeown from Los Angeles at the trade deadline. 

Those young blueliners, along with under-the-radar Trevor Carrick, shutdown type Brett Pesce and slow-developing former No. 12 pick Ryan Murphy, comprise a highly promising cast of future "D"-men for the 'Canes. 

Hockey's Future, however, ranks the team's overall prospect base 29th in the NHL. While this low ranking could be easily contested, the website's main justification for it—a lack of "potential top six forwards in their system"—cannot be. The team has just three good forward prospects (Brock McGinn, Sergey Tolchinsky and Lucas Wallmark) and all three are under 180 pounds.

This imbalance between the quality and depth of the Hurricanes' prospect corps on the offensive and on the defensive sides serves to further complicate Francis' thought process should Hanifin still be available at No. 5.

He could address the forward shortage with one of two powerful 6'4" wingers (Crouse and Rantanen) or one of the OHL's most prolific scorers of the past decade (Marner)...or he could draft yet another defenseman. Hanifin may be the most well-rounded and most certain future NHL star out of the bunch, but the 'Canes simply don't need him as much as the alternatives.

Final Thoughts

MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 02:  Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States goes after the puck behind the net in a quarterfinal round during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships against Team Russia at the Bell Centre on January 2, 2015 in Montreal, Queb
MONTREAL, QC - JANUARY 02: Noah Hanifin #2 of Team United States goes after the puck behind the net in a quarterfinal round during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships against Team Russia at the Bell Centre on January 2, 2015 in Montreal, Queb

In an article by Yahoo!'s Josh Cooper, an anonymous "Western Conference amateur scout" names Rob Blake as a comparable for Hanifin. It's one of very few comparables named for Hanifin around the internet, but a flattering one nevertheless: Blake was just inducted into the Hall of Fame last year.

Would the 'Canes happily select the next Rob Blake, prospect defenseman surplus or not?

Yes, absolutely. Ryan Murphy—who is basically a smaller and less reliable Hanifin—would be quickly dealt, Justin Faulk would dance a gleeful jig and the 'Canes would secure an elite first pairing for a decade to come.

Without that certainly, however, Francis will be forced to weigh positional need versus prospect skill should Hanifin fall to No. 5.

Hanifin is less of a risk than Marner, Crouse or even Rantanen, but the 'Canes may be better off taking a bigger risk elsewhere in hopes of cashing in a more desperately needed payoff.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.

Pros and Cons of Mikko Rantanen as Possible Carolina Hurricanes Draft Pick

May 20, 2015
TORONTO, ON -JANUARY 2:  Gustav Forsling #8 of Team Sweden skates to check Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland during a quarter-final game in the 2015 IIHF World Junior hockey championship at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2015 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Team Sweden defeated Team Finland 6-3. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON -JANUARY 2: Gustav Forsling #8 of Team Sweden skates to check Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland during a quarter-final game in the 2015 IIHF World Junior hockey championship at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2015 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Team Sweden defeated Team Finland 6-3. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

Of the plethora of highly touted forwards in the projected top 10 of the 2015 NHL draft, Mikko Rantanen is almost certainly the least discussed.

It's hard to get a comparative reading on Rantanen's 2014-15 season because of his location. The 18-year-old Finn does not play in the OHL, where almost all players are under 21 and 100-point seasons are commonplace, but rather in the Finnish Liiga against professional opposition.

Rantanen tallied nine goals and 19 assists in 56 appearances for TPS, a 28-point total that hardly rivals the flashy totals of OHL forwards like Connor McDavid, Mitchell Marner or even the relatively scoring-maligned Lawson Crouse.

The 6'4", 209-pound winger, however, boasts the formidable frame that Marner doesn't and the playmaking productivity that Crouse doesn't. 

Could Rantanen's NHL-ready skill set win over the heart of Carolina Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis, owner of the No. 5 overall pick, on draft day?

Note: This prospect evaluation from a 'Canes perspective is the third in a series on potential selections. Read about the pros and cons of Marner and of Crouse in previous installments.

PositionRW
Age18
Weight6'4"
Height209 lbs.
2014-15 TeamTPS (Liiga)
2014-15 Stat Line9G, 19A, 28P
CSS Ranking (Euro Skaters)1st
ISS Ranking9th

Pros

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 31:  Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland is stopped by Kevin Reich #30 of Team Germany on a penalty shot in a preliminary round game during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships at the Bell Centre on December 31, 2014 in M
MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 31: Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland is stopped by Kevin Reich #30 of Team Germany on a penalty shot in a preliminary round game during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championships at the Bell Centre on December 31, 2014 in M

Rantanen put his status as the top international draft prospect of 2015 clear with his performance at the World Junior Championships in January, scoring four of Team Finland's eight goals and impressing scouts with his tenacity despite being one of the youngest players on the ice.

Goran Stubb, NHL Director of European Scouting, raved about the Nousiainen, Finland, native to NHL.com's Mike Morreale:

I thought Mikko was the best player on the Finnish team. He's a big, strong and mobile power forward that is always a consistent threat on the ice. He has a combination of hockey sense, smooth hands and an explosive shot. Overall he's a smart, two-way forward with good decision-making, reliable and a hard competitor.

The forward scored four goals and eight assists in his final 14 regular-season games with TPS to finish second on the team in points and surge to No. 1 in the Central Scouting Service's European Skater rankings. 

By all accounts, he's much more versatile than Crouse, his fellow 6'4" top prospect, and better at not relying solely on his size to make an impact on the ice.

SeasonLeague/TeamGPPoints
2012-13TPS U20 (Jr. Liiga)3524
TPS (Liiga)153
2013-14TPS U20 (Jr. Liiga)1718
TPS (Liiga)379
2014-15TPS (Liiga)5628

Rantanen is familiar with playing against full-grown men well in the 200-pound range, rather than against fellow teenagers who often must add another 20 or 25 pounds to fill out their frame. 

As a result, he's almost certainly the most professionally prepared of all 2015 draft-eligible players outside of the elite few and would be a strong bet to make the 'Canes NHL roster in training camp come September. For a Hurricanes franchise desperate to end its ongoing playoff drought, this possible immediate impact would likely be considered a major positive.

It's fair to label Rantanen as a bigger Elias Lindholm in many respects.

The two Scandinavian wingers, two years apart by birth, both earned (optimistic) Peter Forsberg comparisons in their draft years—Rantanen names Forsberg as his role-model hockey player growing up, although he now models himself after Ryan Getzlaf—and will likely have debuted as NHL rookies in the seasons directly following.

The final similarity could be fulfilled next month: being drafted No. 5 overall by the Carolina Hurricanes.

Cons

TORONTO, ON -JANUARY 2:  Robert Hagg #14 of Team Sweden tries to squeeze Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland into the boards during a quarter-final game in the 2015 IIHF World Junior hockey championship at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2015 in Toront
TORONTO, ON -JANUARY 2: Robert Hagg #14 of Team Sweden tries to squeeze Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland into the boards during a quarter-final game in the 2015 IIHF World Junior hockey championship at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2015 in Toront

Despite his ideal frame, Rantanen is knocked by scouts for not translating it into a particularly physical or aggressive playing style. 

"Rantanen needs to improve his shot and physical play, as he doesn't take advantage of his size in many situations," writes Curtis Joe of Elite Prospects. (He also writes, however, that Rantanen is "an exceptionally talented playmaker...that oozes skill.")

Rantanen's scouting report on Future Considerations also notes that he has an "awkward" (but functional) skating stride and needs to improve his shot accuracy and power. Conversely, it also claims that Rantanen "uses his strength and reach...to protect the puck."

And while Rantanen may appear on paper to be a happy mixture of the positives of both Marner and Crouse, he lacks a defining attribute upon which to base his NHL-level game, where being purely good at hockey is no longer a sufficient ingredient for success.

He's not familiar with the North American game (nor North Carolina culture, for that matter) and has never played more than 56 games for a single team in a single season in his career. Like any international prospect, Rantanen's prospect stock shoulders some standard risks not otherwise apparent in his basic profile.

The Finn most likely faces a lower ceiling of potential than some of the 'Canes' flashier and more controversial options, as well. He's not going to be the next face of the franchise, and probably not even a regular All-Star; he's a relatively safe bet to be an offensively productive and defensively responsible top-six regular, but the next NHL superstar he is not.

Final Thoughts

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 26:  Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland stops with the puck in front of Anthony DeAngelo #24 of Team United States during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 26, 2014 in Montreal, Queb
MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 26: Mikko Rantanen #16 of Team Finland stops with the puck in front of Anthony DeAngelo #24 of Team United States during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 26, 2014 in Montreal, Queb

My previous reviews of Marner and Crouse pointed the very looming risks in choosing either of the OHL products.

Rantanen doesn't carry the same "bust" concerns, but also falls short of matching either in upside too.

A selection of the 6'4" Scandinavian at No. 5 overall would be a safe move on the part of Ron Francis, maximizing his chances of landing a solid impact player with the valuable pick, but could also mark a deviation from his developing trend of boldness in rebuilding.

Rantanen and Lindholm could compose two reliable and capable bookends of a potent first or second line in the future. But Rantanen alone will not single-handedly jump-start an offense that finished 27th in the league in 2014-15.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.

Pros and Cons of Lawson Crouse as Possible Carolina Hurricanes Draft Pick

May 11, 2015
TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 2:  Lawson Crouse #28 of Team Canada chases down a puck against Team Denmark during a quarter-final game in the 2015 World Junior Hockey Championship at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2015 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Team Canada defeated Team Denmark 8-0. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 2: Lawson Crouse #28 of Team Canada chases down a puck against Team Denmark during a quarter-final game in the 2015 World Junior Hockey Championship at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2015 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Team Canada defeated Team Denmark 8-0. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

If Carolina Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis plans to acquaint himself with potential options for the fifth overall pick at an amusement park, the 'Canes will be picking Lawson Crouse come June 26.

Petite phenom Mitchell Marner, whose pros and cons I analyzed last week, may not meet the minimum weight requirement for a few rides. The big, bruising, powerful Crouse definitely will not have that same problem.

Crouse—a hulking presence as a 6'4", 212-pound 18-year-old—is ranked as a conclusive top-10 selection in the upcoming 2015 NHL draft by most every source. He has the potential to be the next great power forward in a league that has recently grown disenchanted by such a type of player.

But his basic scoring production in 2014-15 with the OHL's Kingston Frontenacs raises concerns equal to the praise garnered by his pure physical abilities.

Is Crouse's combination of size and style enough for Francis and the 'Canes to overlook his imperfect resume? 

PositionLeft Wing
Age18
Weight6'4"
Height212 pounds
2014-15 TeamKingston Frontenacs (OHL)
2014-15 Stat Line29G, 22A, 51P
CSS Ranking (N.A. Skaters)5th
ISS Ranking4th

Pros

MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 31:  Zach Werenski #23 of Team United States challenges Lawson Crouse #28 of Team Canada near the boards during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 31, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada
MONTREAL, QC - DECEMBER 31: Zach Werenski #23 of Team United States challenges Lawson Crouse #28 of Team Canada near the boards during the 2015 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship game at the Bell Centre on December 31, 2014 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Crouse packs the best combination of strength and size of any 2015 draft-eligible player, and that's an impressive combination of superlatives that could easily woo Francis.

The winger takes advantage of both assets effectively in defensive and checking situations, as well as in puck scrambles and board battles.

He's praised for his uncanny sense of knowing where to be at all times and is a better skater than the average forward of his stature, although not of the same caliber as Marner in such regard. Crouse is also an excellent penalty-killer.

Said Tony MacDonald, the team's director of amateur scouting, to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer earlier this month:

"Crouse plays a power game but he’s also one of the best skaters in the draft. He’s a leader, a captain. He’s a physical specimen and will get even bigger and stronger, which is a little scary."

Despite his oft-referenced scoring shortcomings—more details on that below—Sportsnet's Jonathan Willis points out that a current NHL star who embodies the best-case upside of Crouse scored even less in juniors. 

BOSTON, MA - MARCH 31: Milan Lucic #17 of the Boston Bruins celebrates a goal against the Florida Panthers at the TD Garden on March 31, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - MARCH 31: Milan Lucic #17 of the Boston Bruins celebrates a goal against the Florida Panthers at the TD Garden on March 31, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Babineau/NHLI via Getty Images)

Boston's Milan Lucic, 6'4" and 202 pounds at the time, had scored just 19 points in 62 games in the WHL before being drafted; today, he's a three-time 50-point scorer and one of the game's most imposing physical presences. 

Carolina's Jordan Staal could also be compared to Crouse, and he too scored fewer goals in his last OHL season (28) than did his younger counterpart (29).

Indeed, thanks to his well-developed body and rough style, Crouse could very well be immediately NHL-ready in the fall and step right into a massive line with the Staals. The established stars could help the 18-year-old gain offensive confidence, and Crouse could add the third piece to very tall trio of powerful forwards.

Cons

ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22:  Samuel Montembeault #33 of Team Cherry makes a save on Lawson Crouse #67 of Team Orr during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by V
ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22: Samuel Montembeault #33 of Team Cherry makes a save on Lawson Crouse #67 of Team Orr during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by V

Imagining Crouse excelling beside Eric and Jordan Staal as soon as October, however, is bordering on overly optimistic—at best.

SeasonLeague/TeamGPPoints
2012-13AAA Middlesex Midgets2750
2013-14OHL Kingston6327
2014-15OHL Kingston5651

The Ontario native scored just 29 goals and 22 assists in 56 games for Kingston, a production total of 51 points that amounts to just 40 percent of Marner's 126. While he did lead the Frontenacs in scoring, he ranked an unremarkable 63rd in the entire OHL—not quite the excellence expected from a No. 5 overall selection.

Critics of Crouse's high ranking attack the apparent lack of evidence to back up his top-10 projection. The argument is that scouts are focused on vague intangibles like "grit" and "size," while simple junior league scoring statistics actually have a higher correlation with NHL success. And, for many reasons, the argument is a valid one.

In contrast to Lucic, Willis also points to a less optimistic comparable for Crouse: Alek Stojanov, a 6'4", 230-pound winger who scored 45 points in 62 OHL games before being taken seventh overall in 1991. Stojanov's NHL career proceeded to produce just two goals.

MONTREAL, QC - JUNE 26:  Philippe Paradis of the Carolina Hurricanes talks to the media after he was selected #27 overall by the Hurricanes during the first round of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft at the Bell Centre on June 26, 2009 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
MONTREAL, QC - JUNE 26: Philippe Paradis of the Carolina Hurricanes talks to the media after he was selected #27 overall by the Hurricanes during the first round of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft at the Bell Centre on June 26, 2009 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Another worrisome comparable is Philippe Paradis, Carolina's 2009 first-round pick and current AHL-level depth grinder. Paradis scored just 50 points in 66 games in his 18-year-old season in the QMJHL—ranking sixth on his team (and none of the players above him have since become NHL regulars either)—but used his 6'2", 212-pound size to become Carolina's top pick that year. Paradis has never made a NHL appearance.

Crouse can point to his performance on Team Canada in the world U-18 tournament this year as possible evidence that he can score against elite competition: He tallied six goals in five games in the tournament. Other than that, though, the numbers are shoddy across the board.

Final Thoughts

ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22:  Lawson Crouse #67 of Team Orr skates during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Cherry at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22: Lawson Crouse #67 of Team Orr skates during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Cherry at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

The most likely ceiling for Crouse is somewhere in between Lucic-like stardom and Paradis-esque disaster.

Unlike the prototypical big, reliable two-way forward, Crouse is an extremely risky player on which to spend a top-five selection, but so are the Hurricanes' other potential options.

Convincing arguments can be made both ways about his boom-or-bust future, but ESPN's Corey Pronman sums up the hypothetical line of best fit for Crouse's future career track:

[Crouse's] combination of skills projects a reasonable ceiling of that player being an above-average scoring NHLer who clearly isn’t top-line caliber in scoring but plays very well versus the opponent’s best forwards and can be one of a team’s top penalty killers. If that outcome is realized, this is a very valuable asset for any NHL team.

But is it worth the fifth overall selection in the strongest draft class in years?

Ron Francis may need multiple rides around the Ferris Wheel to decide on the answer to that.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.

Pros and Cons of Mitchell Marner as Possible Carolina Hurricanes Draft Pick

May 5, 2015
LONDON, ON - NOVEMBER 29:  Ted Nichol #26 of the Kingston Frontenacs tries to check Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at Budweiser Gardens on November 29, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
LONDON, ON - NOVEMBER 29: Ted Nichol #26 of the Kingston Frontenacs tries to check Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at Budweiser Gardens on November 29, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

The contrast between the stunning skill and alarming lack of size possessed by top draft prospect Mitchell Marner creates perhaps the most intriguing storyline of the upcoming 2015 NHL draft.

For the Carolina Hurricanes, picking fifth and right in the projected selection range for Marner, Marner's two-sided resume will test general manager Ron Francis' willingness to take a risk on the draft's biggest "hit or miss" player.

It's highly likely that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Dylan Strome and Noah Hanifin will go to Edmonton, Buffalo, Arizona and Toronto in some order during the top four picks. (Marner is on the record that he'd "love" for the Leafs to pick him, but his desires hardly matter in reality.)

That would leave the 'Canes with a diverse cast of forwards—small and large, North American and international—from which to choose.

The instant and certain franchise-changing players (McDavid and Eichel) will not be options, but Marner could also be franchise-changing. It won't be instant or certain, but Francis may be willing to take that risk regardless.

PositionCenter
Age18
Height5'11"
Weight160 pounds
2014-15 TeamLondon Knights (OHL)
2014-15 Stat Line44G, 82A, 126P
CSS Ranking (N.A. Skaters)6th
ISS Ranking6th

Pros

LONDON, ON - NOVEMBER 29:  Lucas Perssini #40 of the Kingston Frontenacs stops a shoot-out attempt by Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at Budweiser Gardens on November 29, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. The Frontenacs defeated th
LONDON, ON - NOVEMBER 29: Lucas Perssini #40 of the Kingston Frontenacs stops a shoot-out attempt by Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at Budweiser Gardens on November 29, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. The Frontenacs defeated th

Marner is an elite scorer and playmaker capable of challenging for the NHL scoring title every season.

After all, his 126 points (44 goals, 82 assists) with the London Knights this year was the third-highest total in the OHL since 2006-07, far higher than now-superstars like John Tavares, Steven Stamkos, Tyler Seguin and Jeff Skinner.

Scouts rave about the center's shooting, passing, puck-handling, offensive vision and intelligence and essentially every single skill-based trait he has. Reports David Burstyn of McKeen's Hockey:

A highly skilled and intuitive offensive player whose game reading ability is off the charts—able to dance all over the ice. Elusive in his approach as he spins off guys and simply anticipates the game better than his peers. Great stamina levels as he readily retreats back behind his own goal to make a heady defensive play only to dart up ice in the same sequence. Sky high potential as his game marries traits of both Jordan Eberle and even more, Claude Giroux.

Scouts rave about the the top projected picks every year across the board, but Marner's praise has the numbers to back it up. Unlike, for example, projected top-15 pick Mikko Rantanen, who scored just 28 points in 56 games in the Finnish Elite League, Marner is already comfortable with translating his skill into prolific scoring.

SeasonLeague/TeamGPPoints
2012-13AAA Minor Midgets5586
2013-14OHL London6459
2014-15OHL London63126

Marner grew significantly as a player during the course of the 2014-15 season, overcoming a slow start (by his standards) to nearly capture the OHL scoring title.

Working under the leadership of former NHL coach and current London Knights coach Dale Hunter, Marner also noted improvements in his confidence and patience and attributed them to Hunter's guidance.

On a 'Canes team that struggled offensively this season and lacks the flashy puck-handlers of foes like Chicago and Tampa Bay, Marner would represent a higher-caliber version of current OHL prospect Sergey Tolchinsky (who led the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds with 95 points this season).

Carolina has drafted just one forward in the top 37 overall picks of the last four NHL drafts—Elias Lindholm at No. 5 in 2013—and sports an alarmingly sparse cast of promising forwards under the age of 22. Marner would be the most offensively dynamic 'Canes selection since Eric Staal in 2003.

Cons

ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22:  Mitchell Marner #93 of Team Cherry skates during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Orr at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
ST CATHARINES, ON - JANUARY 22: Mitchell Marner #93 of Team Cherry skates during the 2015 BMO CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game against Team Orr at the Meridian Centre on January 22, 2015 in St Catharines, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

It's hard to remember a top draft prospect in recent history with more negative attention paid to his size than in the case of Marner.

He's officially listed at 5'11" and 160 pounds, although other sources range between 155 and 165 pounds. Nathan Gerbe, by comparison, is 178 pounds.

Despite the NHL's recent trend away from big, muscular enforcers to smaller, slicker playmakers and the mirroring decrease in the perceived importance of size, it remains a very noteworthy attribute for any player in the league. Twenty of the top 25 scorers league-wide this season weighed at or above 200 pounds.

Marner undoubtedly needs to bulk up a lot to survive at the professional level. Regardless of the changing role of size, that is a must.

But it's also reasonable to expect such significant growth from Marner in the years ahead. He's not the kind of top-10 prospect who would immediately jump to the NHL (unlike Jeff Skinner in 2010), and any team that picks him—including possibly the 'Canes—would do so while committing to keep Marner in juniors and/or the AHL for another two years or so.

At age 19 with Boston College, the aforementioned Gerbe was listed at 165 lbs. He's added on 13 more in the eight years since onto his 5'6" frame, five inches shorter than Marner and therefore with five inches less body structure on which to add weight.

The second overall pick in 2010, Tyler Seguin, stood at 6'1" and 172 pounds at the time of his selection. He's substantially stronger today, having grown to a solid 200 pounds in the half-decade since.

It's common for flashy forwards to add 20 or 25 pounds in the years after being drafted as they conclude their physical maturation and develop their game for the NHL level.

Marner is also confident about his small stature. Said Marner to NHL.com's Mike Morreale in March:

The NHL right now is at a point where size doesn't matter; it's all about the skill and passion. I think if you go out there and show that you're willing to go every shift, willing to prove a point and prove that you can hold your own, that skills are more important than the size.

Whether those bold statements are interpreted as a representation of impressive confidence or a selling pitch to cover up a known weakness is up for personal interpretation.

Marner also needs improvement on his long-distance skating speed and explosive stride (he's a quick but not particularly powerful skater), as well as in the physical and checking aspects once he adds a few more pounds.

Final Thoughts

LONDON, ON - OCTOBER 31: Gustav Bouramman #37 of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds battles against Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at the Budweiser Gardens on October 31, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Get
LONDON, ON - OCTOBER 31: Gustav Bouramman #37 of the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds battles against Mitchell Marner #93 of the London Knights in an OHL game at the Budweiser Gardens on October 31, 2014 in London, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Get

The exciting upside of Marner is well-known.

So is his lack of size.

Whether or not the Ontario is squirming into a red and white sweater on June 26 will depend solely on, first, his availability at the No. 5 slot and, secondly, Ron Francis' gutsiness when announcing the team's selection at the podium moments before.

Marner could be either one of the NHL's next big stars, the Hurricanes' biggest first-round disappointment since Philippe Paradis or another team's risky venture carrying the same two potential outcomes.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.

Michal Jordan's Fight for NHL Job Continues Beyond 2014-15 Breakout Year

Apr 20, 2015
Dec 27, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Michal Jordan (47) during the first period against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 27, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Michal Jordan (47) during the first period against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Michal Jordan entered the 2014-15 season with five NHL games and 267 AHL games under his belt.

Yet the 24-year-old was recalled to the 'Canes on Nov. 25, mocked in a viral Michael Jordan comparison in his fourth appearance and, 34 games later, boasted the first six points of his NHL career.

Head coach Bill Peters was happy to keep seven or eight defensemen on the roster for most of the year, cycling different players through healthy scratch status each game to spread around experience and playing time in a lost season.

Size6'1", 195 lbs
Age24
Games Played38
Goals2
Assists4
Plus/Minus Rating-7
Hits35
Blocked Shots61
Corsi Percentage51.2

Jordan benefited from the scheme, regularly playing over more established NHLers like John-Michael Liles, Brett Bellemore and Tim Gleason.

At times, Jordan flourished as a result of this treatment.

His two goalsboth on the power playresulted from thinking one step ahead and pinching deep into the offensive zone, leading to a pair of tap-in scores.

He grew in confidence in all three zones, and his 1.61 blocked shots per game (61 in 38 games) led all defensemen on the team's end-of-season roster. He took just two minor penalties in 606 minutes of total ice time, as well.

Without a strong offseason and 2015 training camp performance in the months ahead, however, Jordan's 2014-15 NHL breakout season could land him right back in Charlotte—the Hurricanes' AHL affiliatefor the duration of 2015-16.

As the team builds renewed hope entering next autumn, it's almost a sure bet that Liles and Bellemore will jump well ahead of the still-raw Jordan.

Moreover, the 'Canes have a plethora of highly drafted blue-line prospects with more prestige than Jordan, the 105th selection in 2008: Haydn Fleury (No. 7 in 2014), Roland McKeown (No. 50 in 2014), Trevor Carrick (No. 115 in 2012 and coming off a 32-point AHL campaign) and even Ryan Murphy (No. 12 in 2011), who played one fewer NHL game than Jordan this past year.

Regardless of his recent performance, Jordan seems bound to enter September well outside the projected top six on the team depth chart. Those aren't promising odds for a player with a third-pairing ceiling.

Feb 17, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; New York Islanders forward Mikhail Grabovski (84) skates with puck against the Carolina Hurricanes defensemen Michal Jordan (47) at PNC Arena. The New York Islanders defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. Mandatory Credit: J
Feb 17, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; New York Islanders forward Mikhail Grabovski (84) skates with puck against the Carolina Hurricanes defensemen Michal Jordan (47) at PNC Arena. The New York Islanders defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. Mandatory Credit: J

It's also worth questioning just how noteworthy the Czech native's 2014-15 season actually was.

While his 51.2 Corsi rating looks solid at a glance, it ranked only 14th out of 21 'Canes with 200 or more minutes played and can largely be attributed to his favorable offensive zone start percentage of 59.7. 

He's not a physical presence either and experienced a fair number of rookie mistakes, including some poor weak-side coverage at various moments and being deked into an infinite abyss by Columbus rookie Marko Dano.

The 2014-15 season moved Jordan onto the NHL radar, but he has plenty of work to do yet to secure a long-term spot there.

The offseason ahead will likely prove pivotal for the future relevance of hockey's most unfortunately named player.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of NHL.com and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.

Has Bill Peters Fixed Areas of Concern for Carolina Hurricanes in 2014-15?

Apr 9, 2015
RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 10: Head coach Bill Peters of the Carolina Hurricanes coaches from the bench area during their NHL game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at PNC Arena on March 10, 2015 in Raleigh, North Carolina.  (Photo by Gregg Forwerck/NHLI via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 10: Head coach Bill Peters of the Carolina Hurricanes coaches from the bench area during their NHL game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at PNC Arena on March 10, 2015 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Gregg Forwerck/NHLI via Getty Images)

Bill Peters is two games away from concluding his first season as head coach of the Carolina Hurricanes.

The 48-year-old boss has been faced with a number of obstacles in his debut campaign, from waiting a month before earning his first career victory to enduring half a season without Jordan Staal.

He's also overseen a number of improvements in the 'Canes, including a record-breaking season by Justin Faulk and a record-breaking stretch of penalty kills.

Before the season, Peters noted three key categories that most needed improvement in 2014-15: the power play, the starts of games and the home record.

Looking back, how much has Peters followed through and delivered results on these points of emphasis? A breakdown of Carolina's performance and improvements (or lack thereof) in each of the three categories lies below:

Power Play

RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 26: Eric Staal #12 of the Carolina Hurricanes shoots the puck on net as Marc-Andre Fleury #29 of the Pittsburgh Penguins deflects the puck away during their NHL game at PNC Arena on March 26, 2015 in Raleigh, North Carolina.  (Photo by
RALEIGH, NC - MARCH 26: Eric Staal #12 of the Carolina Hurricanes shoots the puck on net as Marc-Andre Fleury #29 of the Pittsburgh Penguins deflects the puck away during their NHL game at PNC Arena on March 26, 2015 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by

2013-14 performance: 14.6 percent conversion rate (No. 28 in NHL)

2014-15 performance: 19.0 percent conversion rate (No. 13 in NHL)

Based on basic conversion rate and rank within the league, the Hurricanes' power play has become far more efficient under Peters' staff.

Eric Staal's power-play goal total has increased from one to seven; Faulk's has increased from two to seven. The unit is on track to finish higher than 18th in the league for the first time since 2007-08, incredibly.

But the improvement may not be as substantial as it looks at first glance.

While the unit's efficiency has spiked significantly, the increase is more due to fewer power-play opportunities (down from 3.4 to 2.9 per game) than more power-play goals (up only from 41 to 44 with two games remaining).

Furthermore, the 'Canes are actually averaging fewer shots (down from 53.1 to 50.7) and shot attempts (down from 104.0 to 97.8) per 60 minutes of power-play time than they were last season, according to Hockey Analysis data.

Faulk's maturation as a PP quarterback and the net-front presences of Jordan Staal and Andrej Nestrasil have certainly helped the cause, but the statistics may exaggerate just how much the unit has improved.

Starts of Games

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 31: Brooks Laich #21 of the Washington Capitals celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes in the second period at Verizon Center on March 31, 2015 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 31: Brooks Laich #21 of the Washington Capitals celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Carolina Hurricanes in the second period at Verizon Center on March 31, 2015 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty

2013-14 performance: Scored first in 39.0 percent of games, minus-19 first-period goal diff.

2014-15 performance: Scored first in 43.8 percent of games, minus-20 first-period goal diff. (per NHL.com)

Opening frames have remained an Achilles' heel for the 'Canes in 2014-15, as evidenced by the numbers above.

Only Toronto and Edmonton sport a worse first-period goal differential than Carolina, as more than half of the team's combined goal differential (minus-38) has accumulated in the opening 20 minutes of games.

Getting on the board has also proven to be an issue. The 'Canes have opened the scoring in 35 of their 80 games this year but just five of their last 20 dating back to Feb. 28. Even more shockingly, not since Feb. 16 have the 'Canes scored first in a road game, a contributing factor in their abysmal 11-25-4 road record this season.

Although the problem hasn't gotten worse, Peters has indisputably failed to fix Carolina's early-game woes.

Home Record

2013-14 performance: 18-17-6 home record

2014-15 performance: 18-15-7 home record

A win in Saturday's home finale would give the 'Canes one more home win than they earned a year ago, but the difference will be negligible either way.

It has really been the record away from PNC Arena that has killed the team this season, but Carolina is still one of just nine clubs with fewer than 20 home victories to date. Carolina's caliber of play in Raleigh has evidently done little to inspire a fanbase that is going to finish 29th in attendance.

Despite their losing record, however, the Hurricanes have outscored opponents 90-87 at PNC after being outscored themselves 106-103 a season ago.

Mark Jones has been a Carolina Hurricanes featured columnist for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more or follow him on Twitter.