Memphis Tigers Football

One of the greatest things about college football is the unpredictability.

Teams that won 10 or 11 games a year ago could struggle to 5 or 6 this year. On the flipside, teams that lost eight or nine games in 2006 could win just as many in 2007.

Several different factors play into those rapid ascensions from the basement.

One, having a large number of returning starters is probably the single biggest key to a team's improvement. If a quarterback is among the returners, it makes a big jump even more likely.

Two, teams that finished the previous campaign on a hot streak are more likely to have momentum heading into the offseason, spring practice, and the next season.

Three, teams who suffered a large number of close, agonizing defeats the year before tend to rebound with better seasons, as the law of averages dictates that some of the balls will start bouncing their way.

Those good breaks are often tied to reason four—turnovers. Teams victimized in close games can often turn it around simply by improving their turnover ratio. A returning quarterback helps in this department.

Five, an easier schedule can lead to a rebound. Home-road matchups and nonconference slates are the biggest determinants here.

Six, first- or second-year coaches use the offseason to implement their schemes and systems. That prep time can translate into wins, especially on teams with a lot of young starters.

Seven, a new head coach can often make an immediate impact—especially if he can bring a jolt of energy to an already talented program.

There are other reasons, of course, but these are the primary ones. Using the list as a guideline, which teams can we identify as likely turnaround candidates in 2007?

North Carolina State

The Wolfpack have long been long on talent but rather short on composure and discipline.

The 'Pack lost nine times a year ago, their most since 1959. The primary reasons were their inability to protect the football and their inability to move it to the end zone.

On the bright side, only 15 lettermen are lost, and the team brings back eight starters on offense, including quarterback Daniel Evans. More importantly, head coach Tom O'Brien brings a new attitude with him from Boston College.

Penalties and turnovers are never a problem for an O'Brien-coached team; only once in the past six years did his Boston College squads lose the turnover battle. In that same span, the Golden Eagles never once allowed more than 4.0 ypc.

Of the 'Pack's seven home games, five fall in the winnable category. Road games at East Carolina, Boston College, and Florida State (the Wolfpack just seem to have the 'Noles' number) give the 'Pack a great chance to double last year's win total and get back to the postseason.

Virginia

Virginia may have lost seven games in 2006, but they bring back 19 starters. Of those 19, 12 were freshmen or sophomores a year ago, including three of the team's four linebackers.

The Wahoos have plenty of talent on defense, but they might be a little short of playmakers on offense. Still, there's reason to think the Cavs have a chance to make some noise in the ACC Coastal Division.

After going 1-5 on the road a year ago, three of the team's six away games come against Wyoming, North Carolina, and Middle Tennessee State. Virginia is 29-9 at home under Al Groh, so a .500 road record would make a seven-win season very possible.

Iowa

With their two-point loss to Texas in the Alamo Bowl, the Hawkeyes posted their first losing season since 2000.

Don't expect them to stay down long.

This year, the Hawkeyes avoid both Michigan and Ohio State, and their nonconference schedule sets up to be 4-0. Their conference road games are tough (Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue), but they close the season with three of four at home—traveling only to Evanston to face Northwestern.

Though just six starters return on offense, the loss of Drew Tate may not be as bad as some people think. Tate liked to improvise, often keeping the Hawkeyes from running their offense the way they want to run it.

On defense eight starters are back, and the Hawkeyes should be dominant in the front seven.

No question about it—this team is primed to jump from six wins to as many as ten or eleven.

Illinois

Ron Zook has just four wins in two years in Champagne. However, the third year is when new coaches generally start experiencing the most success.

After putting together some top-notch recruiting classes, Zook has his players. The Blue and Orange return 17 starters—including QB Juice Williams, who learned on the job a year ago as a true freshman.

While they may have lost ten games, the Illini actually outgained opponents by 24 ypg over the course of the season. Five of their losses were by seven or fewer points—and they were -15 in the turnover department, which was no surprise for team with a true freshmen at quarterback.

Illinois hasn't won multiple conference games since 2002, and that should definitely change this year. They also haven't won multiple road games since 2002 —and could win as many as three in 2007.

If they do that, the Illini could be headed to a bowl for the first time since their Sugar Bowl run in 2001.

Northwestern

After the death of head coach Randy Walker, the Wildcats lost eight games last year. 

The team ran off emotion to beat Miami University in the season opener, then looked drained in a loss to New Hampshire the next week. To their credit, the Wildcats did play better near the end of the year, losing by just three points to Michigan State, limiting Michigan to 318 yards of offense, winning in Iowa City, and closing the year with a win over Illinois.

Injuries also hurt the '06 Wildcats, as C.J. Bacher missed six games. Without him, Tyrell Sutton's production dropped considerably.

The defense wasn't very good last year, but the unit returns eight starters, as does the offense.

The Wildcats open with three straight winnable home games before taking on the Big Ten powers in back-to-back weeks. After that, just about every game on their schedule can be deemed winnable.

While I don't know if the defense is up to the task, the possibility clearly exists for Northwestern to push for upwards of eight wins this season.

Colorado

The Colorado defense was decent a year ago, and returns enough key members to be solid again.

The offense was horrible—but new quarterback Cody Hawkins is better equipped to run the system than predecessor Bernard Jackson. Jackson will be used in more of a slash role to exploit his athletic ability.

If the offense can improve marginally, the Buffaloes record could improve dramatically. In 2006, the team lost by four points to Colorado State, one to Georgia, in overtime to Baylor, and by five to Kansas.

The schedule isn't easy—not with the usual game against Colorado State, a trip to Tempe to take on the Sun Devils, and an opener at home against Florida State. If the Buffaloes survive that stretch with at least one win, they'll spend the rest of the year aiming to get to .500 and a bowl.

Alabama

The Tide have the ultimate energy-provider in Nick Saban...or do they?

Will Saban's demanding style infuse energy or wear down his players? In Year One, the smart money is on energy.

The Tide avoid Florida and South Carolina, and have Tennessee and Georgia both coming to Tuscaloosa. Besides Auburn, their toughest conference road game is probably at Vandedrbilt—a team they've beaten 19 times in a row.

'Bama closed 2006 by playing quite well against the likes of LSU and Auburn, only to be undone by turnovers in both games. They have some questions to answer, particularly at running back, but there's ample reason to think Alabama could post double-digit wins this year.

Syracuse

Greg Robinson better hope his team makes good on the "coaches are successful in Year Three" theory.

Otherwise, he might not see Year Four.

Robinson only returns five starters on defense, but he brings back two stud safeties and two quality defensive lineman. The question is going to be who fills in the gaps.

In any event, QB Andrew Robinson will be the key to the season. How quickly he grasps the offense will be vital, as the Orange have plenty of talent at receiver and an all-league caliber rusher returning in the backfield.

Last year's team was terrible on D, but 2007 will see more of Robinson's own recruits on the field. Seven home games doesn't hurt, either—the Carrier Dome is still a difficult place for visiting teams to play.

'Cuse's first three games are toughies, even though two are at home. The schedule makes it tough to find six wins, but the team has a chance to end the year with five straight W's—meaning an early victory or two could land the Orange back in the postseason.

Memphis

Could the Tigers really go from ten losses to ten wins?

Quite simply, yes.

Other than a road game at Southern Miss, every game appears winnable—though the Central Florida game in Orlando will be pretty difficult to pull off.

The Tigers get seven home games, and don't have to play Tulsa, UTEP, or Houston. They also return 16 starters, including senior quarterback Martin Hankins.

This Tiger team could see improvements of historical proportions.

The defensive line, largely responsible for the team's defensive struggles a year ago, relied heavily on freshmen and sophomores . If those underclassmen can mature enough to keep the D respectable, a big jump for the Tigers just might be in the cards.