Ottawa Senators

As part of a series, writer Benjamin Benya will be forecasting the plan of the five worst NHL teams as the trade deadline nears. Will they be big sellers or stick to their guns and stomp through the trenches?

For Part One, click here.
For Part Two, click here.

For the Ottawa Senators, the 2010-11 NHL season has gone from disappointment to complete nightmare in a matter of weeks. The Sens were in the thick of the conference hunt for playoff positioning at the start of the new year, but a slew of losses, capped off by 10 consecutive over the past few weeks has left the Senators searching for new solutions to the same old problems.

From the inception of the new year, the Senators have failed to really get things clicking. Initially, it was goaltending that struggled for the team with Pascal Leclaire and Brian Elliott both sharing inauspicious records. Once things got back on track defensively, Ottawa's scoring began to let down dramatically and the play all over the ice was catastrophically bad.

It would appear that with the Senators backing themselves into the worst finish since the franchise first started, a reconstruction is vital to survival. But Ottawa is already in a tight space with $43 million against the salary cap at the start of next year. Because of this, the thought lingers that this team won't be much different from those that previously failed to make the playoffs.

A few personnel changes in the coaching staff combined with the right moves at the deadline can help the Sens build positive momentum into a vital offseason. So while this season may be written off as a total loss, the Senators can make the most out of the opportunity if they play their cards well.

Ottawa boasts four expiring contracts by July 1st that could be great bargaining chips if marketed to the right teams, the most important of which is aging scorer Alex Kovalev. Kovalev's best days are far behind him, and the old moniker of "give-it-away-Alexei" seems more fitting given his inconsistencies.

But if he's used in the right system with the right players, Kovalev is an immediate difference maker who can bolster the power play unit and deliver a threat on the wing. He's also got a plethora of playoff experience that includes a Stanley Cup ring as a 17-year-old with the New York Rangers.

Kovalev's current contract calls for $5 million this season, but if he chooses to play beyond it he'll likely take a pay cut to stay afloat and may well be low-risk enough for a team to part with a second round selection or a few prospects. Despite steadily declining numbers in the regular season, Kovalev's 98 points in 116 playoff games are certainly impressive. The only thing holding Kovalev back is his no-trade clause, but he'd likely wave it if it meant a shot at the Cup.

In fact, we could talk ad nauseam about the teams interested in acquiring Kovalev's services, which would include but not be limited to his former employers the Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, or Montreal Canadiens. Each is struggling through injuries of some form or another and could be the perfect place for him to reignite the flame. Maybe he'll even dive into the Western Conference pool for the first time in his career. Detroit Red Wings, anyone?

Aside from Kovalev, who may be the most marketable player come the deadline this year, the Senators also find themselves holding expiring contracts with goalie/trainwreck Pascal Leclaire, pest forward Jarkko Ruutu, and longstanding defensemen Chris Phillips.

Maybe I'm being hard on Leclaire, but since making the jump to full time responsibilities in both Columbus and Ottawa, Leclaire has been an utter disappointment. He's had one season of compotent play; the rest of his career is masked by injuries and sad starts.

There is a case to be made that if he could get healthy and play at the level he did initially in Columbus, Leclaire would be a great steal for a team needed a goalie in the pinch. But to think that Ottawa keeps him around for any reason other than an inability to shop the banged-up netminder would be foolish, especially because Brian Elliott's contract is up as well and he's restricted at this point.

Elliott has clearly been the better netminder over the past few years, both physically and statistically. Leclaire's injuries will scare off many suitors, but goalies still have a tendency to move regardless of the baggage they're packaged with on deadline day.

Speaking of injury, forward Jarkko Ruutu has just recently been activated by the Sens and could also be fair game by the end of the month. Ruutu may not be a pest at the same level of spite as say, Sean Avery, but he's close. And at his best, he's also a catalyst for teams looking to get that spark back in the middle of a game.

With a low rent, $1.3 million contract paid out before July 1st and no contract extension in immediate sight, he too is a solid option to exit. And we again turn to his former clientele, the Penguins and Vancouver Canucks, as leading the pack for this agitating forward.

Then of course, we have Chris Phillips, who is in the midst of what can only be deemed the worst season of his career. Phillips is still eating up all the minutes he usually would, but with zero goals, four assists, and a minus-26 rating coming into Wednesday, he's having an atrocious time out there. Figure it this way: if he were a younger, budding defender, he'd be demoted to the AHL for such a showing.

Phillips isn't a sure thing to return to the Senators next year, either, as his current payout of $3.5 million would need to be reduced significantly for the Sens to strongly consider extending the deal. In short, Phillips is quite expendable and one of the top defenders on the market over the next three weeks.

A simple change of scenery playing for a team that scores at will like Philadelphia would do wonders for both sides. Phillips, like Kovalev, has a no-trade clause in his contract that he'd have to waive first. But with the season going the way it has thus far, he'll probably have a list of future candidates made up by Friday.

If there's one player that isn't going anywhere, however, it would be Jason Spezza. Every year the rumor mill buzzes with deals that imply Spezza will be on the move out of Ottawa and onto the next conquest, yet nothing ever comes of them. Its as if Spezza is the proverbial Manny Ramirez of the NHL, constantly trade bait during his prime but never really moved until after the love affair ends.

Despite is lowly numbers this year (and to be fair, the whole team is suffering statistically), he'll reach 500 points and 500 games played at almost the same time before turning 28. And with four more years left on a contract that supports a no-trade clause and $7 million cap hit each year, even the most anxious general manager has to think twice about dealing for him.

This leaves us with one more player of interest, and he's the captain. Daniel Alfredsson has spent his entire career in Ottawa and has never shown himself to be anything but a Senator. He'll be 40 by the time his contract expires and though he's still a prolific scorer, he's not moving. Not unless the deal is that sweet, and with GM's showing increasing frugality in the past few years, it won't be.

Fun Fact: The Senators have almost $2 million of Salary Cap for next season tied up in the contract buyouts of Jonathan Cheechoo and Ray Emery, both of whom remain without an NHL affiliation this year (though Emery will join the AHL this week).

On the Move:
1. C/RW Alex Kovalev
2. LW/RW Jarkko Ruutu
3. D Chris Phillips

Staying Put:
1. C Jason Spezza
2. G Brian Elliott
3. RW Daniel Alfredsson

So here we sit, wedged uncomfortably between the worlds of epic disappointment and hopeful anticipation.

Every club interview, game and media analysis leaving fans imbued with both frustration and excitement, caught in an emotional tug of war, fanatically switching between rage against the current reality and energized by the opportunity for change.

Watching hockey is supposed to be entertaining and, like it or not, this is entertaining.  We, as Senators fans, have been through the no hope years (pre-1996), the some hope years (1996-2001) and the elite years (2002-2007), those combined era’s being like a jet liner take off, slow at first, but building into a thrilling lift off.

Then, from 2008 to present, the jet hit turbulence.  We real fans having buckled in for the resultant ups and downs, suffering more than a few bouts of nausea, and discombobulation for our efforts, but steadfast in our support of the club.

But what does the future hold?  Will we be back to the era of some hope?, no hope?, or are we entering into an entirely new epoch in the writing of this young franchises history, the era reasonably steady flying, with no worries of crashing and burning, but the ability to finally reach maximum altitude?

You see, that’s the excitement of it all, the unknown.

Or is that concept an impossibility?

No, it’s been done, most recently by the Philadelphia Flyers, and before them, the Anaheim Ducks.  One could also point to the Boston Bruins as another example of a team making great strides without first having made a crash landing.

But there are plenty of examples of the opposite.

Their does exist the very real possibility of years of middling performances, with little or no progression, a la Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Islanders or St Louis Blues.

I for one remain absolutely hopeful in a expeditious re-tooling of this club, with a soon to be return to not just the post season, but post season success.

I say here’s to embracing the excitement of change, the anticipation of renewal, all while holding those who pilot this jetliner to the high expectations we’ve come to expect of the Ottawa Senators.

In an article in today's Ottawa Sun, Bruce Garrioch reports that Ottawa Senators GM Brian Murray may by trying to trade Sergei Gonchar. 

The star defenceman has underachieved this year and is not living up to his three-year, $16.5 million deal signed this past summer.

Everyone can agree that the Sens are not getting good value for their dollar.  Gonchar has six goals and 15 assists, heading into the All-Star break.

This puts him on pace for only 33 points in 82 games, which would be his worst statistical production since 1997-98 (excluding seasons with fewer than 62 games played).

One factor that cannot be denied is that Gonchar, aged 36, is no longer in his prime, and he cannot be expected to produce points at the same rate as he did when he was in his 20s. 

However, it was not that long ago that Gonchar was scoring in the 60-point range for the Penguins.

What's the difference, apart from Gonchar being slightly older?  The coach.

Cory Clouston, who previously coached the Senators' farm team in Binghamton, has been praised for this efforts in developing the Sens' younger players, but his ability to connect with the team's veteran players has been questioned.

For example, Clouston has not consistently played Gonchar on his preferred right side.

The Senators are in a transitional phase.  In additional to roster changes, it is widely believed that there with be both a new coach and general manager in place next season. 

If Gonchar's contract is unmovable, then maybe the Sens should consider bringing in a coach who can get the most out of the defenceman.

Who has Gonchar had his most recent success under?  In three full seasons under Michel Therrien from 2005-08, Gonchar scored 37 goals and 153 assists.  Gonchar also scored 19 points in 25 games in 2008-09.

Want to get more out of Gonchar?  Maybe the Sens should consider Therrian as the next coach.  He is currently scouting for the Minnesota Wild.

Let me start off by saying, as a Leaf fan, I don't have any problem with the Ottawa Senators losing. What I do have a problem with is stupidity.

On Saturday night, Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk said that general manager Brian Murray and coach Cory Clouston's jobs are safe until the end of the season.

Melnyk gave this quote to the Ottawa Sun, “There is no one, no one, on this planet that bleeds more than I do for this team, as a fan and as an owner. I am more disappointed in the performance of the team than any fan could imagine. The time has come to make some of the most difficult decisions that an owner can make. Do we need a game-changer? I believe we do. I’ve lost sleep. Bryan Murray loses sleep. Cory Clouston loses sleep. Everybody who loves this team doesn’t sleep well at night.”

What sticks out to me is this: "The time has come to make some of the most difficult decisions that an owner can make."

Apparently not, because if it were, he would have fired Clouston weeks ago. The Senators, as of right now, are having a worse year than the Leafs. That's saying something, although it's somehow not saying, "You're fired Cory."

It happens to almost every team that is doing badly—usually the coach is one the first to go, unless your name is Ron Wilson. I don't know why Melnyk wouldn't at least say goodbye to Clouston and keep Murray.

Both Clouston and Murray's contracts are up at the end of this season, so that could be part of the reason they're being kept. That way Melnyk can save face and say that he gave them every chance they could.

So with the coach and GM safe, the players are the ones that are going to take the fall for these two. Expect the Senators to be one of the busiest teams leading up to the trade deadline.

So why don't you just send Jason Spezza our way, because apparently he's worth less than Clouston and Murray.

For the second time this season, the Washington Capitals used the Ottawa Senators to get healthy in snapping a losing streak. 

Washington downed a struggling Senators team 3-1 in an afternoon affair at Washington's Verizon Center.

The Capitals beat the Senators 3-2 in Ottawa back on December 19th, ending an eight game losing streak, which was the longest since Bruce Boudreau took over as head coach in 2007.

Yesterday, the Capitals scored three third period goals in a 6 minute and 16 second span to beat the Senators for the third time this season, but what can we really take from this victory?

The Senators are 13th in the eastern Conference, started a goalie that was 0-5-2 in his last seven starts and are one of only eight teams that give up over three goals per game.

Ottawa was 1-6-1 in their last eight games and the Caps, losers of three straight, once again played down to the competition in getting shutout for the first 40 minutes.

For two periods, Ottawa gave the Capitals' offense fits, but that’s no longer a surprise from any team in the NHL.

For the fifth time in six games, the Capitals surrendered the first goal and they seem to be coming earlier and earlier in the first period.

Sunday’s goal came less than two minutes into the contest as Caps starting goalie, Michael Neuvirth, failed to cover the puck in the crease.

Neuvirth, one half of the great young goaltending duo the Capitals boast, rebounded from the goal to finish with 22 saves. This was the third time Neuvirth beat the Sens this season in improving his record to 15-6-4.

Following the early goal, Washington looked to be in danger of being shutout for the seventh time in less than 27 games. 

Instead of the struggling Alex Ovechkin or Nick Backstrom stepping up, the Capitals got another struggling top line forward to convert an Ottawa turnover into the tying goal.

Brooks Laich, who has been experiencing quite a goal scoring draught himself, converted an errant clearing attempt deep in the Senators' zone and beat Ottawa goalie Brian Elliott, tying the game at one.

The goal was Laich’s first since he scored against Anaheim back on December 15^th, a span of 13 games.

Laich's tying goal sparked a scoring outburst by the Capitals. Including Laich's goal, the Capitals would score three times in a six minute, 16 second span of the third period to take a 3-1 lead. 

The Capitals' second goal was a power-play goal. The Senators' Milan Michalek was serving a two minute penalty for cross-checking Capitals' defenseman Karl Alzner from behind.

It looked worse than it was, as Alzner would leave the ice only to return later in the period.

The Caps didn't wait long to cash in on the extra man advantage. It took just two seconds to snap an 0-11 power-play outage the Caps had been experiencing.

With the faceoff inside Ottawa's zone and to the right of Senators' goalie Brian Elliott, Nick Backstrom won the draw, getting the puck right back to Caps' defenseman John Carlson.

Carlson blasted the shot past Elliott, giving the Caps a 2-1 lead just 45 seconds after Laich's goal.

Prior to the power-play goal, the Caps were in a stretch of total power play futility at 8-79 (10.1 percent) and were showing no signs of coming out of the slump.

Jason Chimera finished off the Senators, scoring a goal I'm sure goalie Brian Elliott would love to have back. Chimera, skating down the goal-line, banked the puck off of Elliott's back, making it 3-1 and completing the scoring.

The Caps, in spite of their horrible offensive slump, are now tied for first place, once again with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Southeast division.

However, the Capitals are clearly beginning to show signs of frustration on offense.

For the third time in four games, the Capitals had more shots miss the net than they had on goal. The Capitals had 24 shots against Ottawa, but had 34 that missed the mark all together. They had 21 blocked and 13 that just missed the net.

10 of their next 15 games will be on the road and head coach Bruce Boudreau knew how important winning this game was to the Capitals' psyche.

“I just told them I hope they realize how important this period is to our season,” Boudreau said when asked about what he said to the Caps during the second intermission. “It’s vital mentally to get a couple goals for themselves."

Without that period, the Capitals would have been heading to play the Eastern Conference’s best team—the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday night—on a four game losing streak. 

Tuesday's game against the Flyers should give the Capitals a good measuring stick of where they are as a team right now. The game in Philly will mark the second game out of the last three that the Caps will have played the best team in each conference.

The Capitals lost to the Western Conference and NHL point-leading Vancouver Canucks 4-2 on Friday evening in Washington.

The Capitals are doing some of the little things correctly, as Washington won 69 percent of the faceoff’s against Ottawa in the game.

One of the Capitals' top forwards of late has been Marcus Johansson and he was rewarded with a first line start against Ottawa. Johansson started with Ovechkin and Backstrom.

Boudreau said of Johansson, “When he gets the puck more and he uses his speed through the neutral zone he’s so much better. So it was something that I thought was a good time to change.”

Boudreau added on Johansson’s play “Just another solid game...He was good. He’s getting better and better each night.”

The Capitals are fortunate with the unexpected solid efforts from players like Johansson and Mathieu Perreault. Perreault won several big faceoffs in the defensive zone and was 7-11 at the red dot on the night.

If Boudreau can figure out how to get the Great Eight and the rest of the Capitals' top line production in sync, Washington may just become the team we all thought they would.

If he doesn’t and with the All-Star break looming, this could be a long stretch of road games that could bring significant changes in the Nation's Capital.

The beauty of being a fan is being able to work in the made up “perfect world."

We can analyse every trade, pick, signing, play and save, with the beauty of slow motion, hind-sight, but without all of the complicating variables, like reality.

But no player, coach or GM enjoys the same luxury, and we all need to remember this as we fume over our current real world as Sens fans.

And this surely includes myself.

I may have the occasional privilege of “inside” information, albeit very rarely from anyone inside the Senators, and never from anyone from high up, in any NHL organization.

And I may spend hours scouring the on-line “sources”, looking for areas of convergence, synthesize a lot of “rumours” and putting them back out to all of you to read, and criticize (lol) them.

But, apart from real inside information, I definitely lack real inside reality.  I only know how difficult it is to make trades and signings in this league based upon hindsight.

And hindsight, without all of the information surrounding the decision, is a terrible platform from which to prognosticate.

That all being said, here’s my prognostication, based upon those historical actions, rumours and “inside” information.

1. Murray honestly believed his young forwards would prove able to leverage the offensive talent of the remade, puck moving blue-line into more goals.

2. Murray believed Pascal Leclaire would be the No. 1 he thought he acquired for Vermette.

It is those two strategic misses that have burned the Senators.

I do not, for even an instant, believe he went into this season planning to trade his way into the roster he wants.  Nor do I believe this is even possible.

There are a lot of trade rumours out there, and this is because there is a lot of discussion out there, I know this to be true, but, for whatever reason(s) it is very, very hard to actually execute a trade in this league, unless you are willing to eat salary, as was done by MTL in the Wizer trade (he cost MTL a 2nd and a 5th).

Murray needs to move a player and get one back, and those trades rarely happen mid-season.

This is why we so often hear the “it has to come from within” refrain in the face of poor play.  Not because that’s what the GM wants, but because reality dictates it.

Next comes Kovalev.  I’ve openly called for his expulsion from the team, advocating addition by subtraction, making his exodus reward enough. 

Knowing Clouston, based upon his statements and actions, there is no way I believe he wants to keep playing Kovalev.  I believe, whole-heartedly, he wants Kovy out as much as I do.  I don’t know this, but I absolutely believe it.

But Kovalev continues to play and has actually been rewarded for his horrible work ethic by being elevated to the top line.

It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to see there’s something afoot when it comes to Kovalev and his status on this team.

But when it comes to Kovy, I do not know what is afoot, and it is killing me.  I feel like I’m sitting in the passenger seat of a car headed for a cliff, and the guy driving keeps saying, “I see it, but let’s just see how this is going to play out."

Barring a miracle, we all know what will happen, if things do not change NOW.  Like in the cliff analogy, even if the one in control finally accepts something must be done, by then, it may be too late, if it isn’t already.

If it is Murray keeping Kovalev on this roster, he needs to be fired.  I can suffer trades and signings not working out, but inaction for political reasons is a mortal sin.

If it is Melnyk keeping Kovalev on this roster, he needs to step back and allow those who can manage a team do so.  I respect what he has accomplished in business and respect the fact this is his team that he bought and paid for with his money, but if he needs fans to support him in this endeavor (which he does), he had better smarten up and direct his hubris, should this be the case to horse racing, where only he supports the whole show and alone suffers the losses of bad decisions.

In a perfect world, this team:

1. Gets Kovalev out of the dressing room, today.

2. Fill one key strategic skill set currently lacking from the roster, or prospect depth. An elite scoring winger.  The team has to either fill this role now or blow the team up, knowing drafting this sort of player and waiting for them to develop will take longer than any player on the roster will be around to play with him.  Apart from Spezza, Karlsson, Cowen, Wiercioch or Lehner, do what it takes to land this player or blow it up and leverage the young D into a full rebuild.  Keeping the prospects to play on a fundamentally flawed team, to continue finishing near middle of the pack, is futility.

I’m talking;

Iginla – Is he available? No, because he has a NMC, but don’t ask, don’t get.

Booth – Possibly, but it would cost first rounders and a top prospect, at least, I’d still do it if I believed in the D prospects and Lehner.

Parise – see above.

Nash – No, but if he isn’t, Filatov is.  With Johanson possibly ready to assume the long needed No. 1 centre role, Columbus will be loathe to not have someone for him to play with.  Filatov would be a lesser replacement, but he would be the best scoring winger this team would have.  But if Nash is available, get him.

Martin Havlat - After years of futility, maybe this team is ready to divest itself from long-term contracts and make a fresh start.

Again, if this cannot be accomplished, blow it up, there’s no other reasonable option.

However, according to recent Murray comments, it would probably be a deal/decision worked out by Melnyk himself.

Is this team being managed to death by the owner?

I sure hope not because if that is the case, the only thought that springs to mind is the “Toronto Maple Leafs."

I don’t say this to take a pot shot at Leaf fans, as I’m sure they would be the first to gladly see change themselves.

Eugene, if you are running this team, or even just meddling (yes, that is what it is) please, please, call Mike Ilitch, you know, the owner of the league's most consistent, and well run franchise, for a little guidance on how to build winning clubs.

Something stinks about this club, and the smell is getting worse everyday.

Jesus wept, was that game ever brutal.

I swear, had there been a rusty spoon about, I would have gladly dug out my eyes in favour of suffering the sight of that dismal performance.

Unfortunately there wasn’t, so my masochistic tendencies had me endure the full 60 minutes of sensory torture at the hands of the increasingly sadistic Ottawa Senators.

Why?  Why so awful?

How does a team come out charging, and beat one of the finest teams in the league, then in the very next game, lay a steaming pile at centre ice for the enjoyment of the paying home crowd?

Are they trying to empty the building?

I won’t even get into the officiating…even I’m not that much of a masochist.  Potvin and Brown pretty much summed up my feelings on that aspect of the game.  When the commentators are openly questioning the skill/character of the officials, you know there’s an issue.

Add to this the fact that every team Ottawa is hoping to catch, with the exception of Montreal, seem to be playing each other every night, and going to over-time, has the post season picture becoming no less bleak with every passing game.

This year has truly been a difficult one to enjoy.

How do Leaf followers do it…seriously?

Well, there is at least a modicum of good news.  With the win over PIT, combined with the recent loss to CAR, Ottawa still sits at the all important P% of o.625, over the last 8 games.

This is the mark the Sens need to remain at, or better, if they have any hope of making the post season.

What really stings about that loss is the fact it represented a four point game, or rather, a game that, had they won, would have cost a competing team with an important win, and further padded their own P%.

Not to mention establishing the first sustained win streak since November.

Instead, a direct competitor walked out with two points, the Sens again look either incapable, or un-willing to compete, even against marginal teams, and the paying fan base is subjected to another demoralizing/insulting home performance.

One way or another, it has to stop.

The fans of this city will remain steadfast in their support of this team, but not this roster, or it’s management.  We will not accept mediocrity for the security of inaction.

If management wants to lose now, to win later, the fans will support this, just do it.

This means blow it up.  Make available every player for trade, outside of perhaps Alfie, and the young core they will need in order to facilitate a re-build.  If Alfie wants to go to a contender, he’s earned this right, IMO, and I would never question his loyalty to Ottawa, should he do so.

Obviously any key trade, such as a Spezza, would have to garner a sizeable return as, like him or not, #1 centres are simply not there to be had.  Possibly a team on the cusp of breaking through (PHX, CLB or even a desperate team like CGY or NSH) might part with a talented young centre in return for a more ready to go player such as Spezza, i.e.

J. Spezza & F. Kuba to CLB for R. Johansen, N. Filitov & M. Commodore

or

J. Spezza to NSH for D. Legwand, 2010 1st & 2nd, 2011 1st.

Those would be the only sort of in-season deals I would consider for Spezza, otherwise, wait for the off-season when cap space is more available.

I would love to see Phillips moved, to a contender, both for him and the team, but only if the Sens feel the post-season is out of the picture.  I have little doubt he would return to Ottawa, and this may well be the reason behind the lack of contract talks to date.

I believe both Alfie and Phillips fit into this team, even if rebuilding, as they bring the all important elements of leadership, experience and legacy needed to foster a young roster.

With Spezza out long term, the question is, now what?

Well, it can be reasonably assumed Mike Fisher will see a bump in his ice time, from his current 18:24 to something closer to Spezza’s 19:10.  Not exactly a huge jump, but he’ll be expected to lead this team offensively in all situations, and not just be a secondary scoring guy with solid two-way skills.

This will be a huge challenge for Fish, and he’ll be leaning on his wingers for support.  Expect to see him keep centering Alfie and Michalek, with the latter also likely to see a bump in his ice time.

Both Alfie and Mich have struggled offensively this season, and now is the time for them to step up and take over games at both ends of the ice, not just defensively.  All three of these players have the talent to be impact players, and combined they can at least compete with most other top lines in the NHL, at least in the short term.

Nobody is expecting the Sens modified top line to be Cup contenders, but it is only fair to expect them to be at their best, which is pretty darn good.

They’ve yet to be at their best this season, but no time like the present.

In some ways, the demotion of Kovalev and Regin to the fourth line has made this transition somewhat easier to make, assuming Clouston chooses to keep the two together which I suspect will be the case, at least at the beginning.

But if the top line leaves fans worried for production, the second line is downright anemic.  Regin and Kovalev have been awful.

Just. Plain. Awful.

Foligno isn’t going to be the spark for these two, although he has significantly improved his play of late, for Regin and Kovy it will have to come from within.

Hopefully Regin playing his natural center position, and Kovalev getting his wish to prove himself an impact player, will get these two going when the team really, really needs them.

So here is my predicted second line: Foligno – Regin – Kovalev.

The third line is immutable, especially when the team will be in a state of flux.  Clouston will need at least one line he knows he can throw over the boards no matter what the situation.

Ruutu, Kelly and Neil have, by far, been this team's most important and reliable line.  They’ve scored important goals, played important defensive minutes and kept other teams honest in a variety of ways.  This line simply cannot be broken up without risking major chaos.

Lastly will be the fourth line, the line likely to see the greatest change.

Regin and Kovy will be gone, but Winnie will remain, and he has been a standout in his role as fourth line banger/grinder/agitator.

This is where Murray and Clouston will have to work some magic.  It has been speculated that Smith will get the nod from Bingo, and that is a fair assumption, particularly if the player coming up will be tasked with a bottom six role.

But the final player on this line will be harder to predict.  The job could fall to Shannon, but honestly, is he a fourth liner?

I say no. No offense Ryan, but you just do not have the size to play this role, and your skill game isn’t suited to playing  less than 10 minutes a game.

I’d sooner see Shannon packaged with Lee, in a trade, but I’ll get to that later.

If I were GM, I’d be looking to Cody Bass to fill this final fourth line role.  Cody is a banger with good speed, and has a willingness to stir it up and, if required, drop his gloves in defense of his teammates.

This team is not going to win by getting offense from the fourth line; it is going to win by frustrating and pounding their opposition, and Cody will provide this ability well ahead of Shannon.

Add to this the fact Bass is gaining nothing in his development by playing in the A, and to me you have an easy move, particularly as Spezza’s salary can be relieved through LTIR provisions of the CBA.

My proposed fourth line: Smith – Winchester – Bass

Now, what to do with Shannon.  He’s a great depth guy, but his size just limits his role, and the team is already lacking for size up front, leaving Shannon vulnerable to physical defensemen no matter which line he plays with.  The other long-standing player of note is Lee.  For everyone’s sake the kid has got to go.

If pairing him with Shannon can get a deal done, I say make it happen.

Prior to Christmas the Ottawa Senators wrapped up a 2-1 win over the Nashville Predators, delivering a much-needed two points and extending the Sens streak of improved play.

Since December 10th, when I mentally restarted this season, and accepted that my team had to earn 70 points in 52 games, the Sens have gone 3-1-2 and have earned eight of 12 available points.

That’s definitely improvement, and is on target, but just.

The bad news is the wins were mostly against non-Eastern Conference teams, and many of those ahead of the Sens in the Eastern Conference standings continued to play well and bank points.

Last year required fewer than 90 points to make the postseason, but this year could prove to be the opposite, requiring more than the 95 point norm for postseason play.

The Sens may well have picked a terrible year to be challenging for an eighth-place finish.

But it is what it is.

Tonight the Sens will face the Pittsburgh Penguins, and they’re probably going to lose.  Look, I want them to win—I really, really want them to win—but nothing apart from pure homerism could make me expect anything but a good ‘ol ass whuppin' at the hands of one of the league's best teams, captained by the league's (hands-down) best player.

Who knows, maybe the Pens will be all fat on turkey and compliments and take a night off, but I doubt it.  The fact is, if it comes down to a team taking the night off, recent history indicates it will be the Sens…I’m just sayin’.

The Pens are now what the Sens were four years ago.  It may hurt to accept this reality, but it remains the reality nonetheless.

And if the Sens hope to make the postseason, they too have to recognize this new reality, and overcome it with improved efforts, getting wins the hard way, after years of doing it on skill alone.

So, should the Sens lose this game, they’ll be 3-2-2 in their last seven games, for a point percentage of 0.571—not good enough to make the post season.

If they win, they’ll be 4-1-2 in their last seven games, for a point percentage of 0.714—so far so good, and a little cushion to boot.

A tie will put them at 0.643, within striking distance of their goal.

If this team is going to make the postseason, they’ll have to do it by winning all of the games they’re supposed to win, and some games they’re not.  May as well start with a win tonight, right boys?

Here’s a breakdown of the final 46 games:

Games vs. teams currently above them in point percentage: 31.

Games vs. teams currently below them in point percentage: 15.

So as you can see, the Sens must win all of those 15 games vs. “weaker” opponents, and 16 games vs. those teams currently above them in the standings, for the required 62 points yet to be earned.

Sure, it could be done with a different mix, but that would be doing it the hard way, and I’m not planning for anything more than the path of least resistance.

Who among that group of 31 games are at least close to the Sens in the standings, and play in the East, making up the next class of “must-win” games?

CAR (2), ATL (2), FLA (2), NYR (2) = eight games/16 points.  Add to this they’re the all important “four-point” games, and they really are must wins.

Next are the western-based teams above, but near the Sens in point percentage: ANA (1), CLB (1) = two out of four pts.  Maybe not as big as the games vs. Eastern Conference teams, but still those with the highest likelihood for positive outcomes.

That leaves another 21 games that the Sens, in a perfect world, will have to earn at least 13 points from, for a point percentage of 0.310.

It is in those remaining 21 games, versus competition with significantly better point percentage, that the Sens face their greatest challenge.  Twenty-one games versus legitimate NHL postseason contenders—let's be honest, teams that, to date, the Sens can’t be expected to beat.

Teams that look at the Sens and think “two points."

And maybe, just maybe, this attitude can be the Sens secret weapon.  We all know good teams look past weaker teams and can be caught sleeping early.  If some of these teams are already postseason locks, and are not particularly interested in busting their asses down the stretch, the Sens can possibly steal some late-season “meaningless” points.

So what are the games might the Sens be able to steal?

Pittsburgh, March 15th, at Ottawa.

This game comes after the Pens face Edmonton at home, and is a one-off road game, before a late-season four-day mini break for the Pens.  It is entirely possible management will leave some key players behind for a little extended R & R, and those that do make the trip to Ottawa will already be in vacation mode.

Washington, March 25th, at Ottawa.

A game that falls in a weird spot in the WSH schedule.  Washington, prior to this game, will have played just one match (vs. PHI) in the previous six days, and the team will likely head home from nearby PHI to enjoy the two days off before flying in to Ottawa for the match against the Sens.  Add to this the fact that the Caps will play a back-to-back ,with Montreal, the team they lost to in last year's postseason, being the second game, it is highly possible the players and management will look past Ottawa.

Lastly, Philadelphia, April 5th, at Ottawa.

A game slap in the middle of a season-ending two games in six nights' light schedule for Philly.  Add to this the Flyers have a two-day break after this game, before a back-to-back to end the season, and you’re likely to have a team in “float” mode hoping to rest up before the postseason.

The other seven points from the top-of-the-pack teams will have to come from a combination of luck, effort and skill.

So there you have it, 46 games, 62 points and a postseason appearance.

Why not?

By now the word has hit the entire NHL. With the constant discussion going on about the future of superstar Brad Richards in a Dallas uniform, focus has begun to shift from the highly-touted center to a brooding veteran on a team that is going seemingly nowhere.

Alex Kovalev has bounced back and forth across the NHL for the past two decades, finding a home and some love for only brief periods before a franchise becomes disenchanted with the Russian and grants him his freedom. This year's model, the Ottawa Senators, are doing something that no team has done with Kovalev previously.

After inking Kovalev to a two-year, $10 million deal in 2009, Kovalev has sunk production-wise and found himself in the crossfire of a heated battle with coach Cory Clouston. Just a week ago, Kovalev was bumped to the fourth line of a team that is struggling to stay anywhere near competitive.

What's worse, the Senators are clearly showing Alex the writing on the wall as we rapidly approach midseason and the pending February trade deadline.

The Sens are up against the cap wall, currently saddled with three $5 million-plus contracts for three 35-plus players (including Kovalev).

The goaltending situation is chaotic on both the ice and in the office as Ottawa struggles to find the right fit between Brian Elliott and Pascal Leclaire. Both are due to be free agents in one respect or another (Elliott an RFA, Leclaire a UFA) this summer.

Compounding this are several mid-level forwards that themselves are underachieving despite handsome paychecks for years to come. While the Sens should have ample wiggle room in the offseason (somewhere in the market of $17 million), they are currently looking like a team with no direction or aspirations towards greatness.

Kovalev may well be the poster boy for this stagnant turn. With just seven goals in his first 32 games this year, Kovalev is only the second most disappointing Russian in the NHL (Alex Frolov's five goals in as many games are the biggest bust). He was demoted to the fourth line by Clouston on December 9th in a game that the Senators lost thanks to poor third period against the New York Rangers.

Despite threats from Clouston and management that his play could have him benched, Kovalev's ice time picked up just a few days later versus New Jersey and again on Monday against Atlanta. Needless to say, the value for Kovalev in Ottawa has worn pretty thin, yet he may prove to be a valuable asset to several franchises in the home stretch.

Kovalev started with the New York Rangers and won a Stanley Cup with the team in 1994, a year that was arguably his best on broadway. But the Rangers became disenchanted with "Give it away, Alexei" and promptly shipped him to Pittsburgh in an effort to capture more glory.

For the next few years, Kovalev experienced the biggest upswing in his career by playing with Mario Lemieux and company while posting 44 goals and 51 assists in his career-best year of 2000-2001. But soon, with much larger issues plaguing the money-strapped Pens, Kovalev was shipped back to the Rangers in a massive deal.

One team implosion and fire sale later, Kovalev found himself playing in Montreal for the first time in his career. Early on, he was a solid contributor that, much like he had before, became invisible on the score sheet and had the team contemplating just what to do with his expensive contract.

Luckily for Kovalev, in 2007-2008, he had a comeback year like no other and helped escalate the Habs to the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and the league's best power play.

One season later, his numbers dipped slightly and he was again part of a massive exodus at the hands of Montreal GM Bob Gainey. This time, though, he had massive company as Gainey let 10 unrestricted free agents walk out the door.

Surprisingly enough, Kovalev found himself a new home in Ottawa, bringing us to where we are today. The Senators are struggling to stay afloat and Kovalev's numbers have dipped significantly from his days in Pittsburgh, Montreal, and even early on in New York. For the fourth time in his career, it appears as if Alex Kovalev will be on the mood so a club can save some cash for the future.

Here comes the fun part. What team, of the other 29 NHL franchises still very much aware of the Kovalev situation, would be willing to take a chance on the forward? Sometimes old habits die hard, especially if you're the Penguins or Rangers.

Pittsburgh has added a top six winger a few times in their quest for the Cup over the last few seasons. Though none of those wingers stayed with the team after the season concluded, there is no question that Kovalev played the best hockey of his career for the Pens and within a Mario Lemieux regime.

The Penguins, despite being the NHL's hottest and best team, are still relatively thin up front beyond names like Crosby and Malkin and will have a lot of holes to fill come July 1st.

For now, Kovalev's cap hit wouldn't hurt them considering he'd likely take a salary cut once the offseason arrives. And just imagine what kind of spark he could provide if he were matched up with Malkin or Crosby. Kovalev just broke the 1,000-point mark for his career and he's still reminiscing about his point per game production from the years he spent in Pittsburgh.

The Rangers, ever a candidate to acquire any name thrown into the great wide open, are a less likely destination but shouldn't be counted out given Glen Sather's history. After all, this is the man who traded to get Kovalev BACK in New York and actively fought to do it a second time a few years ago.

Imagining Kovalev back in a Rangers uniform would still cost New York one of its up and coming prospects, but at the same time, they may be able to shed Alex Frolov's ineptitude for the small risk of rejuvenating Kovalev's career for the third time. Still, the Rangers couldn't possibly do something this crazy, could they?

Other options, especially out West, present themselves nicely for Kovalev and the Senators. In both St. Louis and Phoenix, the need for an extra veteran presence on the front lines could be welcomed by two team officials who were high on Kovalev from his days in New York. St. Louis President John Davidson and Phoenix GM Don Maloney vividly recall better days for Alex and likely know where to put him to be effective.

One final option, the Los Angeles Kings, seems to be in the works. While the Kings may still be hammering out their Marco Sturm deal, that doesn't mean they've concluded the search for an impactful winger. Giving Kovalev the opportunity to play on a line with someone as gifted as Anze Kopitar may just give L.A. the kind of legitimacy they strive for.

For the Seantors, all five of these options are more reasonable than keeping Kovalev sulking on the bench. Time and time again, Ottawa management forgets to pull the trigger and misses out what could be a franchise-altering deal.

Kovalev's contract is not the only one they can move now for a better tomorrow, but it certainly is the one that has to be moved if this team wants to eventually climb out of the darkness and into the light.