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Hawaii Bowl Betting: San Diego State vs. Cincinnati Odds, Analysis and Pick

Dec 16, 2015
The Cincinnati Bearcats marching band plays after the second half of an NCAA college football game against UCF, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015, in Cincinnati. Cincinnati won 52-7. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
The Cincinnati Bearcats marching band plays after the second half of an NCAA college football game against UCF, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015, in Cincinnati. Cincinnati won 52-7. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

San Diego State closed its regular season as one of the hottest teams in the country, winning its last nine games in a row and going 8-1 against the spread. But the Aztecs will meet a challenge in Cincinnati's high-flying offense in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve in Honolulu.

Hawaii Bowl point spread: Bearcats opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 43.2-29.2 Aztecs

Why the Aztecs can cover the spread

The champions of the Mountain West started this season 1-3 with losses at Cal, at home to South Alabama and at Penn State. But the Aztecs won out from there, taking their last five regular season bouts by an average score of 42-13 to win the Mountain Division. San Diego State then outlasted Air Force in the MWC Championship Game 27-24 to win its first outright conference title in almost 30 years.

The Aztecs outgained the Falcons 436-340, running the ball for 233 yards and passing for 203. That's nine games in a row San Diego State has outgained its opponents, seven of those times by at least 120 yards, and often by much more.

The Aztecs rank 15th in the country in rushing at 235 yards per game, and fifth in both total defense and against the run, allowing just 111 yards per game on the ground.

Why the Bearcats can cover the spread

Cincy started this season 3-3, including a win over Miami, and losses to three pretty good teams in Memphis, Temple and BYU. The Bearcats then won four of their last six games, going 4-2 ATS, and one of those losses came by a field goal at eventual AAC champion Houston. UC capped off its season with a 19-16 victory at East Carolina on a field goal of its own at the end of regulation. 

The Bearcats trailed the Pirates early 10-0, but rallied for the victory and the cover as a two-point favorite on the road. Cincy outgained and outrushed East Carolina, the fifth time in its last eight games it's pulled that trick. The Bearcats are also 6-3 ATS over their last nine contests.

On the season Cincinnati ranks fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 559 yards per game.

Smart pick

Cincinnati owns the advantage on offense, but San Diego State owns the better defense. Aztecs quarterback Maxwell Smith might have a sore knee, but they like to run the ball anyway. The smart money here sides with San Diego State.

Betting trends

San Diego State is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four bowl games.

Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 Bowl games.

The total has gone under in the last four Hawaii Bowls.

The underdog has covered six of the last eight Hawaii Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

Gunner Kiel Injury: Updates on Cincinnati QB's Possible Concussion and Return

Sep 24, 2015
Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel (11) runs back to the sideline in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Miami of Ohio at Yager Stadium, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015, in Oxford, Ohio. Cincinnati won 37-33. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel (11) runs back to the sideline in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Miami of Ohio at Yager Stadium, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015, in Oxford, Ohio. Cincinnati won 37-33. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Gunner Kiel suffered his second head injury in as many weeks during the Cincinnati Bearcats' Sept. 24 matchup against the Memphis Tigers.

He was ruled out for tonight's contest against the Miami Hurricanes, confirmed Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Continue for updates.


Bearcats Offer Update on Kiel's Status

Friday, Sept. 25

Cincinnati provided an update on Kiel's status, via John Taylor of College Football Talk:

University of Cincinnati junior quarterback Gunner Kiel traveled back to Cincinnati last night with the team following the game at Memphis. His X-rays were negative. Kiel remains under evaluation by the UC medical staff and his status for the Miami (Fla.) game on Thursday, Oct. 1 is undetermined at this time.

After the game, the Bearcats announced Kiel is "communicating and moving all four limbs" at the hospital.

On a read-option play, Kiel tucked the ball and ran to his left. As he crossed the first-down line, he slid feetfirst to the turf. As he was on the way down, Memphis cornerback Chauncey Lanier launched his shoulder into Kiel. Troy Machir of Sporting News provided a Vine of the tackle:

Bearcats head coach Tommy Tuberville said after the game, per Groeschen, that "He had a little numbness in his hands."

According to Groeschen, the referees opted against calling a targeting penalty on Lanier. AAC officiating coordinator Terry McAulay explained the decision, per Jon Solomon of CBS Sports: "Kiel wasn't on ground yet and by rule not a defenseless player."

Kiel remained on the turf for a while before the Bearcats medical staff placed him on a backboard and stabilized his head, per Bleacher Report's Matt Miller.

Sideline reporter Kaylee Hartung said on the ESPN broadcast (via Yahoo Sports' Dr. Saturday) that Kiel was able to move his toes, which is an encouraging sign, given the circumstances.

While the image of Kiel being carted off the field was jarring enough, the concern is heightened because he suffered a head injury last Saturday in Cincinnati's 37-33 win over Miami (Ohio).

Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore replaced Kiel against the Tigers, and will start vs. the Hurricanes. 

Tommy Tuberville Considering Withholding Cost-of-Living Funds for Breaking Rules

Aug 27, 2015
Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville at the start of an NCAA college football game against Memphis, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)
Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville at the start of an NCAA college football game against Memphis, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Cincinnati head football coach Tommy Tuberville stated Thursday that he's considering a plan to withhold a portion of a player's cost-of-attendance money for off-field issues or other violations.

Joe Schad of ESPN confirmed Tuberville's stance as schools begin to utilize the increased funds available to athletes. The 60-year-old coach provided a simple explanation for the idea, per Schad.

"We are holding them accountable," he said.

Cincinnati athletic director Mike Bohn called the plan an "accountability measure" for student-athletes and tried to explain it further, via Schad.

"It's not a fine. It's not a threat. It's a tool," Bohn said.

Tuberville and Cincinnati are not the first program to discuss this as a possibility; on Aug. 26, Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster said the Hokies were considering doing something similar, per Norm Wood of the Newport News Daily Press.

Steve Berkowitz of USA Today notes the NCAA's five wealthiest conferences agreed to a plan in January that allows them to provide scholarships that cover the full cost of attending school. All Division I programs can offer the additional benefits, but it's not required.

The plan is already causing concerns in the college community. Jake New of Inside Higher Ed reported some schools with high-profile athletic programs "are sharply increasing" the cost of attendance this year, thus making more available for the scholarships.

Brian Murphy of Yahoo Sports pointed out that college coaches are "sounding more and more like employers/bosses every day."

Tuberville's comments will raise some questions about these guidelines, but it's unclear how much of an impact this will have on his team and programs elsewhere in college athletics.

Cincinnati QB Munchie Legaux Receives Extra Year of Eligibility

Feb 12, 2014

The Cincinnati Bearcats received some great news Wednesday.

As reported by Tom Groeschen of Cincinnati.com, the American Athletic Conference announced that quarterback Munchie Legaux has been granted an additional year of eligibility.

The New Orleans native started at quarterback last year for the Bearcats as a senior but suffered a gruesome leg injury in a Week 2 loss to Illinois.

After tearing several ligaments in his knee, he underwent surgery and missed the entire remainder of the season. Groeschen noted that the Bearcats hope to have Legaux back for summer camp.

At 6'5", 200 pounds, Legaux is a skilled dual-threat player. He threw for 382 yards and ran for 107 in 2013 before suffering his injury.

He is 205-of-397 passing for 2,847 yards and 20 touchdowns with 16 interceptions in his career. He has also tallied 627 rushing yards with seven scores.

Senior Brendon Kay filled in under center after Legaux's injury, throwing for 3,302 yards and 22 touchdowns with 12 picks.

Cincinnati lists three quarterbacks on its roster along with Legaux: senior Michael Colosimo and sophomores Bennie Coney and Gunner Kiel. Kiel sat out the 2013 season after transferring from Notre Dame. The 6'4", 208-pound Columbus, Ind., native is expected to compete for playing time this offseason. 

Wide receiver Shaq Washington was also granted an additional year of eligibility. According to Groeschen, he played just four games as a freshman due to injury.

The Maple Heights, Ohio, native had a breakout season in 2013, catching 78 passes for 783 yards and a touchdown, including consecutive 100-yard performances against Rutgers and Houston.

Cincinnati will open its 2014 nonconference slate Sept. 13 against Toledo. The AAC is yet to release its 2014 schedule.

Why Notre Dame Transfer Gunner Kiel Will Make Cincinnati Relevant Again

Jan 14, 2014
Apr. 21, 2012; South Bend, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Gunner Kiel (5) throws in the fourth quarter of the spring game at Notre Dame Stadium. Kiel wore the number five jersey in honor of his uncle and former Notre Dame quarterback Blair Kiel who died on April 8, 2012. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Apr. 21, 2012; South Bend, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Gunner Kiel (5) throws in the fourth quarter of the spring game at Notre Dame Stadium. Kiel wore the number five jersey in honor of his uncle and former Notre Dame quarterback Blair Kiel who died on April 8, 2012. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

After sitting out the 2013 season due to NCAA transfer rules, the time for Gunner Kiel to rise as the star of the Cincinnati Bearcats is finally here. 

A highly touted recruit in his high school days, when he was ranked as the top quarterback in the nation by Rivals, Kiel originally committed to and attended Notre Dame. But after being buried on the depth chart, he transferred to the Bearcats. 

Now, Kiel is poised to be a leader for a Cincinnati team that is trying to be relevant on a national stage after going 9-4 in Tommy Tuberville's first season at the helm. 

In 2009 and 2010, the Bearcats were among the elite teams in the nation, earning back-to-back BCS bowl bids. In 2009, they lost the Orange Bowl to Virginia Tech 20-7. A year later, Florida beat Cincy 51-24 in the Sugar Bowl. 

Since then though, the Bearcats have appeared in the Belk Bowl twice, as well as the Liberty Bowl. Those certainly aren't near the level of BCS bowls. 

But Kiel could very well be the man to get Cincinnati back to an elite status.

Although Cincinnati finished 18th in the nation in passing yards, Kiel is almost surely an upgrade from quarterback Brendon Kay, who was the team's main signal-caller this past year. While Kay passed for over 3,300 yards, he also threw 12 interceptions and failed to show up in big games. 

In Kay's final two games against Louisville and North Carolina, he threw no touchdowns and three interceptions. Against the Tar Heels, arguably Kay's worst game of the year, he completed fewer than 45 percent of his passes and recorded just 181 yards through the air. 

The Bearcats desperately need a playmaker at that position, and Kiel can be the answer there. 

Kiel, who played in the Army All-American Game and was an Elite 11 QB along with the likes of Jameis Winston, has a tremendous arm with deadly accuracy. He also can throw on the run very well, which will play into Tuberville's spread offense. 

The former top recruit-turned-transfer has the potential to be a playmaker. He brings star power to a team that is trying to get back to elite status. And Tuberville is a genius with molding quarterbacks (see Seth Doege at Texas Tech, Jason Campbell at Auburn). 

While Kiel is generally thought to be the front-runner for the starting job in Cincy next season, there is still a competition. Kiel will need to beat out rising sophomore Bennie Coney and junior college transfer Jarred Evans for the job. 

Nevertheless, should Kiel come away with the job, expect Tuberville to find the perfect fit for him, and expect Kiel to flourish in a system that fits his style of play. 

That should bring huge things to Cincinnati next season on the gridiron. 

The Cincinnati Bearcats emerged victorious over the Temple Owls 38-20 on Friday night, rebounding nicely after losing last week in an upset by South Florida. Had Cincinnati lost to Temple, its chance at winning the AAC Title would have sunk...

Cincinnati Football: Breaking Down the Bearcats' Potential 2013 Bowl Outlook

Oct 11, 2013

With three more wins, the Cincinnati Bearcats will qualify for their seventh consecutive bowl game. However, last Saturday's 26-20 upset to previously winless South Florida makes some wonder just how far Cincinnati will advance this season.

Cincinnati was picked to finish second in the preseason American Athletic Conference media poll. At 3-2 with one conference loss, Cincinnati must treat every game as a must-win, starting tonight against Temple. If the Bearcats lose one more game before the season finale against Louisville, Cincinnati will find itself in the Belk Bowl.

By running the table, the Bearcats will set up a winner-take-all with Louisville for the title and, more importantly, a BCS bowl game. Rutgers and the Bearcats themselves are the biggest obstacles standing in the way of a Cincinnati-Louisville title game.

Louisville might be vulnerable enough for Cincinnati to mount the upset bid. Thursday night, Louisville barely remained undefeated as Rutgers forced three turnovers and contained Teddy Bridgewater for most of the night, likely torpedoing his Heisman hopes. Rutgers could have won if not for the Scarlet Knights committing four turnovers themselves.

A BCS appearance would provide a much happier ending to an extremely turbulent season where very little has gone right. In head coach Tommy Tuberville's inaugural season, Cincinnati lost starting quarterback Munchie Legaux to injury, was blown out by Illinois and barely squeaked by rival Miami (OH) with a 14-0 win.

Following the Miami (OH) game, freshman offensive lineman Ben Flick died in a tragic auto accident. Playing with heavy hearts, Cincinnati traveled to South Florida only to lose a heartbreaker. But hope exists for the Bearcats after they rallied against South Florida and scored 14 points in the fourth quarter. 

Excluding the blowout at Illinois, the defense has been Cincinnati's strong point, allowing 17.4 points and an impressive 251 yards per gameMost of Cincinnati's issues reside with the offense. 

According to Tuberville, the offensive issues include getting beaten up front, younger receivers not running routes correctly and an inconsistent running game.

"Normally the team with the most adversity is the team that comes out on top," Cincinnati running back Ralph David Abernathy IV said in an interview with Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "To me, the only way to go for us is up."

Cincinnati must rely on its defense and a run game currently averaging 200 yards per game until quarterback Brendon Kay demonstrates the ability to carry the offense. Kay has an easy three-game series against Temple, Connecticut and Memphis to become more confident. Cincinnati should win all three games while simultaneously qualifying for a bowl game.

After Memphis, Cincinnati's schedule toughens with Southern Methodist, Rutgers and Houston before the showdown with Louisville. Cincinnati's final four games will determine which bowl the Bearcats will play in.

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm predicts Cincinnati will play in the Pinstripe Bowl on December 28th against Notre Dame. USA Today agrees, though predicts Cincinnati will take on West Virginia.

Bill Bender of Sporting News projects Cincinnati versus Missouri in January 4th's Compass Bowl. ESPN's Mark Schlabach and Brad Edwards also place Cincinnati in the Compass Bowl but differ on the opponentMississippi State and Vanderbilt, respectively. Backing Edwards up is Jason Kirk of SBNation who also pits the Bearcats against the Commodores

Scout.com leaves Cincinnati completely out of the postseason.

PREDICTION: Cincinnati loses to Rutgers and Louisville. Plays in the Belk Bowl versus ACC #5.

Brendon Kay Is Capable of Leading Cincinnati in Wake of Munchie Legaux's Injury

Sep 8, 2013

Munchie Legaux suffered a devastating leg injury during Saturday's loss to Illinois, and the Cincinnati Bearcats will now turn to senior Brendon Kay to lead the offense in Legaux's absence.

Legaux's injury occurred after just throwing a pass. Two Illinois defenders hit him in the pocket, and he remained down for several minutes before being carted off the field. Kay entered the game when play resumed and completed six of 11 passes for 71 yards.

Kay has significant playing experience in the past, so it's not like he isn't used to being under center in Cincinnati. Kay won the starting job away from Legaux midway through last season, and head coach Tommy Tuberville was open to keeping it a competition throughout the entirety of this season as well, via ESPN.com.

After winning the starting job, Kay was stellar last season. He completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,298 yards and 10 touchdowns. He threw just two interceptions. Kay, like Legaux, also has shown the ability to make plays with his legs. He rushed for two touchdowns on 306 yards last season.

While Legaux has proven to be more dynamic of a playmaker at times (he ripped off a 77-yard run last season), he's also shown that he isn't the best at taking care of the football. He threw nine interceptions in 230 attempts last season and already tossed three in just two games this season. Kay has thrown just two in his entire career at Cincy, albeit one with slightly less playing time.

Kay is a big-time pocket passer who will help younger wide receivers like Alex Chisum and Shaq Washington succeed in the Cincinnati offense. Both are sophomore receivers that could benefit from having a true passer under center. Wide receiver Chris Moore also benefits from having Kay under center, as Kay's ability to throw the ball down field complements Moore's speed.

Having Kay under center will help to make the Cincinnati offense much more efficient. Having a fluid offense when playing better teams is one of the many keys to putting together a winning record for the Bearcats.

In taking a look at each passer's career passing percentages, the edge clearly goes to Kay. Legaux's percentage of 52.8 isn't that of a top-tier passer, whereas Kay's 68.9 percentage resembles that of a quality pocket quarterback.

Even with Legaux's tendency to make big plays, Kay hasn't been all that bad at it himself. He averaged 9.4 yards per completion in 2012, while Legaux has averaged 7.5 in each of the last two seasons.

Comparing stats between the two quarterbacks is a good way to get a sense of the disparity between each player, but Kay's poise in the pocket is what makes him a better option for Cincy at this point. Legaux was never terrible in the pocket, but Kay brings both great passing skills and the ability to run to the table. His passing is a step above Legaux's, even if his rushing ability lags just a bit behind.

Legaux's injury was certainly devastating to both the player and the Cincy fanbase, and it hurts the versatility of Tuberville's offense. That being said, now the best quarterback on the team will be under center and should lead the Bearcats offense to both consistency and efficiency. 

College Football Picks: Purdue at Cincinnati Odds and Predictions

Aug 26, 2013

The Big Ten’s Purdue Boilermakers will open the 2013 football season with a high noon showdown against the Cincinnati Bearcats from the newly formed American Athletic Conference this Saturday afternoon at Nippert Stadium. The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPNU.

Purdue opened the 2012 season with three straight up wins in its first four games and closed things out with a 3-1 SU record down the stretch, but a five-game losing streak in Big Ten play led to an overall record of 6-7 and a 3-5 mark in conference play.

The Bearcats tied for a share of the final Big East title at 5-2 SU, and they finished last season at 10-3 SU overall after beating Duke 48-34 in the Belk Bowl as nine-point favorites. They come into this season as second favorites to Louisville to win the first-ever AAC title.

Purdue at Cincinnati Betting Storylines

Purdue decided to go in a new direction with the hiring of Darrell Hazell as its next head coach. He was able to turn the football program around at Kent State, and the Boilermakers are hoping he has what it takes to make this program a factor in the Big Ten title chase.

He will have his work cut out for him this season with a number of new starters, including quarterback Rob Henry, who threw a total of 38 passes in 2012. Akeem Hunt will also be relied upon as the leading rusher left from last year’s squad. He gained 335 yards on 42 carries as a backup to Akeem Shavers.

Defensively, the Boilermakers were ranked 89th in the nation in points allowed in 2012, giving up an average of 31.2 points a game. They return eight starters from that unit, including safety Landon Feichter and defensive end Ryan Russell. Feichter led the team in tackles (80) and interceptions (four), while Russell led the team in sacks with 4.5.

The Bearcats will also have a new face at the helm with Tommy Tuberville as their new head coach. Last season both Munchie Legaux and Brendon Kay split time at quarterback, and that appears to be the plan again for this season. Kay was more accurate throwing the ball, and both have the added ability of picking up yards with their legs.

The loss of running back George Winn will be a huge hole to fill in a rushing attack that averaged 201.5 yards a game, but Tuberville is counting on Ralph Abernathy to elevate his game this season.

Cincinnati’s defense was ranked 14th in the nation in points allowed (18.5). And while it did have some breakdowns in the secondary, the return of cornerback Deven Drane and safety Arryn Chenault should go a long way toward tightening things up in that area.

The one concern could be up front with a couple of key linemen gone from last year’s squad. The Bearcats will need a big effort from Silverberry Mouhon and Jordan Stepp to fill the gaps up front.

Week 1 Betting Odds and Trends

Point Spread: Cincinnati (-10.5)

Total Line: 50.5

The Boilermakers are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games and 3-6 SU in their last nine. The total has gone over in eight of their last 11 contests.

The Bearcats are 5-1 SU in their last six games, and they have won seven of their last eight home games SU. They went 9-4 ATS last season, and the total stayed under in three of five home games.

The last time these two teams met was in 2001, with Purdue coming away with a 19-14 win as a 7.5-point road favorite.

Betting Predictions

While you never like to give up more than 10 points in an opening weekend matchup between two unfamiliar teams, the clear advantage in talent is clearly with Cincinnati in this matchup.

The Boilermakers come into this game and this season with just too many question marks on both sides of the ball in what could easily turn into a double-digit romp for the Bearcats.

Take: No. 176 Cincinnati (-10.5) over Purdue (noon ET Saturday, Aug. 31)