Despite their unbridled joy at qualifying for soccer’s showpiece for only the second time, and first since 1982, New Zealand are almost certainties to be one of the first sides on the plane home from South Africa.
After predictably topping the Oceania qualifying section, the All Whites came through a dramatic two-legged playoff against Asian Zone representatives Bahrain following a dramatic 1-0 victory in front of a record crowd in Wellington.
SCHEDULE
Slovakia: June 15
Italy: June 20
Paraguay: June 24
No matter who they were drawn against, New Zealand were always going to be the rank outsiders of the group, but, truth be told, coach Ricki Herbert will not be too disheartened by their schedule.
New Zealand’s opening group opponents, Slovakia, represent the best opportunity for them to pick up points. Despite topping their qualifying group, Slovakia are short on star names and are competing in their first major competition as an independent nation.
Although Italy are the World Cup holders, they are not the side of four years ago and New Zealand will have some reason for optimism in this fixture, having suffered only a narrow 4-3 defeat when the two sides met in a friendly last year.
Playing the Azzurri early on could also work to New Zealand’s favor, with Italy notoriously slow starters to major tournaments, even when coming out on top in Germany in 2006.
Paraguay will start as favorites to progress alongside Italy from group F, after coming through strongly from the perennially tough and grueling South American qualifying section.
KEY PLAYERS
In a side lacking in star quality, undoubtedly the most recognizable player for the All Whites is captain Ryan Nelsen.
As the only Kiwi currently plying his trade in one of Europe’s top leagues, the commanding Blackburn Rovers central defender has the expectation of a nation to be an inspirational force to his inexperienced teammates.
New Zealand also have some handy players at the other end of the pitch, most notably in Shane Smeltz.
The striker, who plays for Australian A-League side Gold Coast United, was the All Whites’ top scorer in qualifying and has also twice been named Oceania Player of the Year.
Alongside him in attack is likely to be powerful target man Chris Killen. Currently playing in England’s second tier for Middlesbrough, the former Glasgow Celtic forward may not be the most prolific scorer but he can always be relied upon to work hard for the team and create openings for others.
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
While New Zealand are a side lacking in real technical ability, they will attempt to compensate for this with their physicality and direct style of play.
This attritional strategy could have success in throwing some sides, who do not often encounter this kind of approach, off their game.
However, a strong work ethic and long ball game can only take you so far and it should only be a matter of time before the superior quality of their opponents shine through.
Unlike most of his counterparts in South Africa, coach Herbert will have had the opportunity of working with the majority of his players for several weeks, and in many cases months, ahead of the tournament.
With most of his squad competing in the domestic leagues of Australia and New Zealand, whose seasons wrapped up in March and April respectively, Herbert has been able to work on every aspect of preparation with his group in an extensive training camp before traveling to South Africa in June.
This early break for much of his team will also prevent them from suffering the inevitable burn out, sure to be experienced by many other players, resulting from a long European season.
Given the choice, though, Herbert would undoubtedly wish more of the talent at his disposal had the experience of playing in a better standard of competition than those on offer in Oceania.
This lack of experience at the highest level is a major weakness coming into the World Cup. Although they may be rested up, many of his New Zealand side must also overcome the problems associated with, in many cases, having gone three months without a competitive match come the big kickoff in South Africa.
IT WOULD BE A GREAT WORLD CUP IF...
In their only previous occasion at soccer’s high table, New Zealand were sent packing from Spain in 1982 without gaining a single point. Any improvement on that this time around will be seen as a success. Although striker Smoltz, among others, has talked up his side’s chances of surprising people and even making it through to the last 16, this seems wildly optimistic.
For New Zealand, a successful World Cup will be measured by how much the soccer authorities can capitalize on the fever surrounding qualification and build support for the game in the rugby loving nation.
IT WOULD BE A DISASTER IF…
To a large degree, New Zealand really don’t have anything to lose in South Africa. For them, the playoff against Bahrain was their World Cup final; anything they achieve this summer will be a bonus.
However, everyone involved with the team will be motivated to prevent a total embarrassment of the kind Greece suffered in USA ’94, when they were knocked out after failing to earn a point, conceding 10 goals, and scoring none.
MY PREDICTION
Despite a moderate group, the All Whites simply don’t have the quality or experience necessary to compete with the caliber of opposition they will come up against.
In a rare foray into life at this level, they showed at last year’s Confederations Cup that they are woefully lacking against top international opposition, being thumped 5-0 by Spain and even looking outclassed in defeat to the much maligned South Africa.
New Zealand will prop-up their group, with their only salvation possibly coming with a gutsy point against Slovakia.