Conference USA Basketball

Memphis-UAB: Despite Tyreke Evans' Struggles, Tigers Get Tough Win

Feb 27, 2009

Tyreke Evans wasn't on his game tonight as Memphis won a hard-fought contest with UAB. With an NCAA tournament at large bid on the line for UAB, Evans struggled, and Tigers fans hope it was just an off night for the supposed one-and-done star guard.

Everyone has an opinion on the "hired gun" basketball recruits who basically attend college for the opportunity to display their skills and abilities to NBA scouts. This usually benefits both the university and the athlete. On occasion, a player teams up with a veteran team and helps lead that program to a national championship, like Carmelo Anthony with Syracuse.

However, that's quite rare. Even the famed Fab Five at Michigan, while exciting and intriguing, did not win it all.

In observing the development of Derrick Rose last year, I have seen it work nearly to perfection. However, this evening's performance by Tyreke Evans in a hostile environment left a lot to be desired. Evans was 3-of-14 from the field with eight points and nine turnovers.

Coach John Calipari tried to downplay the performance as something of an anomaly, but there has to be some cause for concern. This was an important game for Memphis in terms of seeding and preparation for a playoff-type atmosphere. If you are the person whom the offense goes though, it's paramount that you elevate your game in these types of situations.

UAB's best player, Robert Vaden, went 0-for-17 and 0-for-12 from the three-point line, and the Blazers were still in the game because of Evans' shoddy play. If Vaden had played up to his standards, UAB would have pulled the upset.

What prevented that was execution and selfless leadership of veteran Memphis players like Robert Dozier, Doneal Mack, and especially Antonio Anderson. Anderson made life difficult for Vaden through tenacious defense and also made plays down the stretch to win the game. 

Without those types of veteran players, a team simply doesn't have the ability to advance far in the tournament.

So, which university has shown an ability to blend talented newcomers effectively with a veteran squad over the years? Is the Duke model more effective?

For Memphis fans, the question isn't how we will replace players like Evans or Rose before him. They simply want to find someone as indispensable as Antonio Anderson has been over the years.

Memphis Tigers' Dynamic Duo Just Keeps Winning

Feb 26, 2009

Vertical jumps can be measured. How long it takes to dribble from one end line to the other can be timed. Points, rebounds, blocks, and assists per game are all logged, charted, and compared. It seems that just about anything a person does on a basketball court can be quantified in some way.

How, though, can we really quantify who are "winners?"

Bill Russell was a winner. His San Francisco Dons teams went 14-7, 28-1, and 29-0, winning national titles in the latter two seasons (1954-55 and 1955-56). After the dual NCAA championships, Russell turned around and won Olympic Gold at the 1956 Games in Melbourne, Australia. 1957 promptly marked the first of his astounding 11 NBA Titles in just 13 seasons.

The last two of those NBA crowns, by the way, came with Russell as player-coach.

It’s safe to call Bill Russell the greatest winner in the history of American sports.

Yet Russell was quite often the superstar on his teams. That makes it very easy to say, "Bill Russell was a winner." But the Celtics never once sent their star center out onto the court to play 1-on-5, even when Russell himself was calling the shots.

K.C. Jones played beside Russell on both NCAA Championship teams, the 1956 U.S. Olympic champions, and on eight NBA titlists in nine seasons. Known for his shutdown defensive wizardry, Jones was inducted into the NBA Hall of Fame with a mere 7.4 points-per-game average.

Jones knew his role, and he performed it effectively. This is what made him a winner.

All good teams have a superstar, sometimes two. Great teams might have three superstars. Winning teams, though, simply have a proper balance of star power and seemingly lesser players who are just as indispensable.

This brings me to a pair of very remarkable young men who have proven themselves to be real winners: Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier, the senior leaders of the Memphis Tigers.

Neither of the young men puts up the types of eye-popping statistics that would mark them as superstars. Anderson, the 6-6 swingman who plays four positions for the Tigers, entered the 2008-09 campaign with modest career averages of 7.9 points per game, 3.7 rebounds per game, and 3.3 assists per game. He has chipped those figures up to 10.5, 5.2, and 4.2, respectively.

Dozier, the lanky forward who stands 6-9 but has a 7-3 wingspan, began this season averaging 8.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per outing. He has improved modestly as well, ranking second on the team in points per game (12.4), rebounds per contest (6.7), and blocks (46, 1.7 per game).

As freshmen, Anderson and Dozier cut their teeth while future pros Rodney Carney, Darius Washington, Jr., and Shawne Williams scored the points and shared the glory. The following season saw senior Jeremy Hunt and sophomore Chris Douglas-Roberts step to the forefront and carry the scoring burden. When Anderson and Dozier were juniors, it was Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose.

In truth, Anderson and Dozier have spent their careers filling roles—playing tenacious defense, grabbing rebounds, diving on the floor to save loose balls, scoring baskets at critical moments when the "go-to guy" was triple-teamed.

In other words, the dynamic duo have played winning basketball.

This should come as no surprise to hardcore basketball junkies. After all, Anderson and Dozier played high school ball on what is widely regarded as one of the best prep teams of all time. In 2004-05, Laurinburg Prep scorched the high school landscape, finishing 40-0 and winning the mythical national title.

However, before transferring to Laurinburg Prep, Anderson helped lead Lynn Tech in his home state of Massachusetts to a state title in 2002. Dozier was a two-time All-State selection at Lithonia High School in Georgia.

What these two young men have done since they enrolled at the University of Memphis is astounding. Season marks of 33-4, 33-4, 38-2, and 24-3, when added to the phenomenal senior year at Laurinburg, bumps their ledger to an otherworldly 168 wins, 13 losses in five campaigns.

Put another way, the duo averages 33.6 wins per season (with a few more wins certain to sweeten that total by the end of this season), while winning a breathtaking 92.8 percent of their games. They are currently riding a 54-game conference win streak. With 128 wins, they are a mere four victories away from breaking the NCAA Division I career record.

Many will say that playing the likes of Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, Southern Methodist, and Tulane—some of the tasty morsels in Conference USA—has contributed greatly to the gaudy win total. There is some powerful merit to that idea.

However, it simply cannot be ignored that winners find a way to triumph, especially in games that they are supposed to win. The Memphis Tigers have not lost to a team with an RPI below 50 at the time of the contest since November 2006. Just toss that one around for a minute.

November 2006. That’s more than two years, three months ago. The last Conference USA loss was two years, 360 days ago.

Anderson is one of the premier on-ball wing defenders in the land. He is an excellent rebounder from the guard position, capably runs the point a few minutes a night, and finishes in traffic with authority.

Dozier, despite his thin frame, is a surprisingly sticky post defender while swatting shots and supporting the Memphis pressure defense capably. His length makes him a matchup nightmare, and he has added an array of drives that has given his offensive attack more bite.

Anderson and Dozier are a big part of why Memphis wins. By putting aside their egos and doing the dirty work on the basketball court, the duo just keeps on rolling. That’s why the young men can be called "winners."

Using the Memphis Tigers To Critique the Pomeroy Ratings

Feb 25, 2009

I want to preface my article by stating what my intended goals are for this article. I am critiquing a statistical system that gauges the strength of college basketball teams using tempo free statistics. I'm going to attempt to prove that an adjusted strength of schedule for an opposition's offensive and defensive efficiencies doesn't go far enough in Ken Pomeroy's efficiency models.

Pomeroy statistics have been very accurate in the past. Trends show teams generally must be in the top 25 in defensive efficiency if they want to be a legitimate contender to reach the Final Four. Typically teams that make the final weekend in college basketball are rated very highly overall by Pomeroy.

When checking out the current version of Pomeroy's ratings, you can find Memphis ranked first, West Virginia sixth, UCLA ninth, and BYU 14th. In reality, it's hard to justify by the results on the court the rankings of those teams. Those rankings provided the inspiration for this critique.

In my personal subjective view, I acknowledge Memphis has been a much better team since Coach John Calipari moved freshman Tyreke Evans to the point guard position. The Tigers have quickly become a top 15 team (again in my own personal opinion).

I have become skeptical this season that Memphis deserves to be ranked in the top five after beating up on a conference ranked eighth overall. I thought the Tigers' rise through the rankings was due mainly to major conference teams beating each other up.

I've been tying to find a way for about two weeks to objectively prove my subjective opinion. This is where my critique of Pomeroy's system comes in.

Using the performance of the team I follow the closest Syracuse and the game data of Memphis' conference results, I found my way to prove how the Tigers' weak schedule against Conference USA teams has inflated their adjusted scoring margin or position in Pomeroy's rankings.

Entering the Orange's game against St. John's on Tuesday in Madison Square Garden, Ken Pomeroy's system ranked Syracuse 34th overall. The 'Cuse also stood 24th offensively with an offensive rating around 113.5. Defensively, SU was much worse with a 60th place ranking and defensive rating of 94.8.

After whooping the Red Storm 87-58, Syracuse's rankings improved...dramatically.

By beating St. Johns, who Pomeroy ranked 120th as of Wednesday by 29 points in a 74 possession games, the 'Cuse suddenly jumped into the top 25 at 24th for essentially the first time all year. Th Orange moved up 10 spots with just one victory with a mere three regular season games left in the season.

Post St. John's, the Orange's offensive rating improved 114.7, a jump of .12 points per possession, and moved up to 19th overall. Defensively, the 'Cuse improved even more dramatically from 60th to 52nd and now SU allows .11 points per possession less.

So now it's time to enter in Memphis. It has been hard to get a gauge on the Tigers since they started playing better in conference play. John Calipari's club has fittingly faced eight opponents that rank better and eight opponents ranked worse than 120th, the rank of St. Johns. 

So I got thinking, with St. John' right in the middle, where would Syracuse rank overall if it played the Tigers' conference schedule.

In the non-conference slate, SU scored 1056 points and allowed 874 in 953 possessions. Using Ken Pomeroy's formula for Pythagorean winning percentage (substitute 11.5 for the exponent of two), Syracuse's non-conference winning percentage was .8980, good for 32nd currently.

I debated what way would be the best method to determine the 'Cuse's success if they played in Conference USA. I decided that I would project the Orange's Pythagorean winning percentage using four games against four of Syracuse's worst opponents. Those four games are 86th-ranked Seton Hall, 120th-ranked St. John's, 135th-ranked Rutgers, and 220th-ranked DePaul. Two of those games are road games, and two are home games.

In those four games, Syracuse scored 1.1879 points per possession and allowed 0.8657 points per possession. To make that an adjusted efficiency rating, I multiple the offensive efficiency by national average (1.01) and divide by the opponents average defensive efficiency (99.2). I do the same for the defensive, so (.8657*1.01)/1.023  The adjusted offensive efficiency is 1.209474. The adjusted defensive efficiency is .85477.

In a 16 game schedule played at a pace of 74.5 possessions (the average of the four games), SU would score 1442 points and allow 1019 points. If you add those two totals to the non-conference totals, you get 2497 points scored and 1893 points allowed. SU would have 2145 possessions in the season, the offensive efficiency for the season would be 1.1614 points per possession. The defensive efficiency for the season would be .8825 points per possession.

Entering those totals into the Pythagorean winning percentage theorem, Syracuse's winning percentage is .960253. That winning percentage would rank the Orange eighth overall as opposed to 24th.

Memphis doesn't have results to determine what their Pythagorean winning percentage would be using Syracuse's schedule, but the Tigers have been more dominant then the proposed SU theory.

With that said, against the Orange's schedule, the Tigers would likely drop 10-13 spots instead the 16 spots to mirror SU's ascension through the rankings.

Is Memphis Getting the Respect It Deserves?

Feb 23, 2009

Last season, the Memphis Tigers set the NCAA single-season win total with 38 wins, but they couldn't quite close the deal, as the Tigers came up short in overtime in the championship game against Kansas.

Now they are back doing their thing again this season with 18 straight victories, sitting at 24-3, and back in the top 5 in the country again. The most amazing stat, though, is the Tigers' current Conference USA winning streak which sits at a whopping 54 games in a row dating back to 2006.

Of course the last team to knock off the Tigers in conference was UAB, the same team they play Thursday night in Birmingham, Ala.

So why is it that Memphis' amazing streak seems to get overlooked? Beyond that, why does it seem that Memphis basketball over the last four years isn't quite getting the recognition that it might if it were North Carolina or Duke racking up the wins.

The main reason seems to be that the conference they play in is perceived as weak, and the pundits suggest that Memphis really doesn't play anyone most of the time. 

Well let's just take a look at just how good Memphis has been the last three and a half years starting in 2006 under John Calipari:

  • Over the last four years starting in 2006, Memphis leads the nation in winning percentage, winning 91 percent of its games, and has a 7-3 record against the other top-13 teams in the nation over this same period.
  • Memphis also has a chance, with six more wins this season, to become the only team in the last four years to win 30 games in each season.

To the question about the strength of Conference USA, yes, the conference isn't comparable to the Big East or the ACC, but it has shown the ability to beat some quality teams from other BCS conferences along the way.

  • Other BCS conference teams that have been beaten by Conference USA, excluding Memphis wins, include Kentucky, Arizona, Texas A&M, N.C. State, LSU, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Georgia, Auburn, Minnesota, Penn State, and DePaul. 
  • Memphis, on the other hand, has beaten the following BCS conference teams since 2006: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Cincinnati (three times), Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Southern California, Georgetown, Arizona, Michigan State, Texas, UCLA, and Tennessee. They also have beaten Gonzaga four years in a row.

OK, so Memphis has shown the ability to win against anyone, but another test is who have you lost to? Just how consistent is your program in not only winning big games, but also avoiding those "bad losses"? Well, Memphis only has a total of 13 losses the last four years, so all 10 of their regular season losses count towards their top-10 worst losses, they don't get to throw any out.

  • Memphis' worst loss, its absolute worst loss in the last four years, was to a Georgia Tech team ranked 52nd in the RPI in 2006. Georgia Tech made the NCAA tournament that season as well.
  • Seven of Memphis' 10 worst losses were to teams higher than 17th in the RPI.

So, the bottom line is that Memphis doesn't lose to bad teams. Period. In the game of basketball, where there is so much parity and anyone can have a hot night, Memphis has shown that talent plus consistency is what wins you 30-plus games a season.

Last, if all that doesn't convince you that Memphis is currently in one of the greatest four year runs in college basketball history, compare the records to teams that rank between 51 and 100 in the RPI. This is a true apples to apples test. It shows that Memphis hasn't lost to a non-tournament team in over three years, with its only loss coming to No. 52 Georgia Tech, which made the NCAA tournament that year.

  • Memphis, 28-1, NO losses to teams 100+ in RPI
  • North Carolina, 37-8, including a loss to No. 117 Southern California
  • UCLA, 26-7, including losses to No. 121 Washington, and No. 115 Washington State
  • Kansas, 29-7, including losses to No. 168 UMass, No. 139 Missouri, No. 110 Kansas State
  • Duke, 31-6
  • Texas, 18-10, includes losses to No. 125 Arkansas, No. 105 Wake Forest

So, whether you like the way John Calipari goes about winning games or not, or whether you think Memphis plays enough quality opponents, the numbers never lie, and the numbers are in Memphis' favor big time.

Funny thing about basketball is, though, that it all can come to an end in one night. UAB has a chance Thursday night to take on all this history and bookend an unbelievable streak by the Tigers as the team that started and ended the 54-game winning streak.

Make no mistake though, Memphis is currently on an amazing four year run, and basketball fans need to apprectiate just how good and consistent this Tiger program has been.

The Eighth Bald Prophet Bracket Projection

Feb 23, 2009

Since you can't have a dance without songs, the next two sections owe something to some '80s music legends.

"Dancing on Glass"

The last four teams to get at-large berths are Tennessee, UNLV, UAB, and Kansas State.

Tennessee's only saving grace right now is their RPI of 25. They're 16-10 overall and barely above .500 in the SEC; getting swept by Kentucky doesn't help either.

Kansas State doesn't have a great RPI (75), but sits at 7-5 in the Big 12. KSU has won eight of their last nine, including scores over Missouri and Texas.

UAB is finally getting some well-deserved love. The Blazers have a 39 RPI, are a point away from winning their last 10, and have no real bad losses in their profile.

UNLV's recent one-point win over BYU might have saved their hopes. 

"Dancing With Myself"

The last four teams to get denied are San Diego State, St. Mary's, Providence, and Oklahoma State.

San Diego State was doing fine until they got blasted by New Mexico. They get BYU tomorrow and can sweep UNLV in the last regular season WAC battle.

St. Mary's has proven they don't need Patrick Mills to win but need to get into second place in the WCC.

Providence has been blown out in each of their last two games and only has a 16-11 overall record, plus a bad RPI.

Oklahoma State has a nice RPI, but their only quality win comes against Siena. They also only sit at .500 in the Big 12.

East

1 Pitt v 16 Radford

2 Duke v 15 Robert Morris

3 Michigan State v 14 Stephen F. Austin

4 Xavier v 13 Vermont

5 Florida State v 12 Tennessee

6 West Virginia v 11 Arizona

7 Texas v 10 Utah State

8 UCLA v 9 Minnesota

South

1 Oklahoma v 16 Long Beach State

2 Louisville v 15 Morgan State

3 Clemson v 14 American

4 Arizona State v 13 Davidson

5 Purdue v 12 UNLV

6 Gonzaga v 11 Kansas State

7 Dayton v 10 Ohio State

8 Syracuse v 9 South Carolina

Midwest

1 Connecticut v 16 Play-In (Alabama St./Jacksonville)

2 Kansas v 15 North Dakota State

3 Villanova v 14 Buffalo

4 Wake Forest v 13 VCU

5 LSU v 12 UAB

6 Utah v 11 Penn State

7 Cal v 10 Temple

8 Wisconsin v 9 Siena

West

1 North Carolina v 16 UT-Martin

2 Memphis v 15 Cornell

3 Marquette v 14 Weber State

4 Missouri v 13 Western Kentucky

5 Illinois v 12 Creighton

6 Washington v 11 Kentucky

7 Butler v 10 Boston College

8 Florida v 11 BYU

Memphis Tigers: Something Special

Feb 23, 2009

I am about to let all Division I basketball fans in on a dirty little secret.

Some of you are aware of what I am about to say. For you, my hope is for you to enjoy this article, as it will help you realize that you are not alone. For the rest of the audience, I want to open your eyes to a new viewpoint.

That is enough for the preliminaries. I have set the stage for what I am about to say:

Something very special, very rare, and very beautiful is going on in Memphis, Tennessee. It is the kind of heart-warming story that, if it were to happen in, oh, just about any place else, it would be championed by the national media and hyped to an absurd degree. Since it is Memphis, the accomplishments of the men’s basketball team are routinely berated, denigrated, and generally relegated to triviality by the mainstream media and the so-called experts.

I digress. This is not meant to be a bitter diatribe.  That would be to easy to write. Rather, this is a tribute to the vision, determination, and hard work of John Calipari as well a look at his accomplishments at Memphis.

If the story of the revival of the Memphis Tigers basketball program were a Hollywood movie script, it would probably never sell because who would really believe the plot? After all, the University of Memphis is an inner-city, urban public university, with a long, rich tradition but basically mediocre results.

Prior to 2006, the school only had two Final Four appearances. The 1985 NCAA appearance, however, was stricken from the record due to shoebox-toting Dana Kirk's improprieties. There was the 1973 Championship Game appearance, when then-Memphis State merely became another victim of UCLA.

Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway almost single-handedly carried the program to an Elite Eight appearance in 1992.

The team was somewhat a fixture in the NCAA tournament and was known to win 20 games on a regular enough basis, but it was far from a national power.

Additionally, all of the traditional rivals left, seeking the greener pastures of larger and richer conferences. Louisville, Cincinnati, and Marquette joined the Big East. Virginia Tech fled to the ACC. The rivals that remained were but a blip on the national radar.

If all of that were not enough, Memphis basketball fell into a woeful state of disrepair. The Tigers eagerly left the cozy confines of the legendary Mid-South Coliseum for the Great American Pyramid and regrettably lost their home-court advantage. Due to the Pyramid's configuration, the fans were farther from the floor, and the building's poor acoustics completely took the fans out of the game.

The seating was cramped (at best) and the upper level accommodations were on a steep incline since the arena was a pyramid. The view from the upper concourses, so clean at the Coliseum, were, in a word, horrible. The Tigers' locker rooms were even worse. There were rumors that the team would sometimes actually dress on campus and bus to the games prepared to play because the sparse quarters were so unpleasant. I am just reporting what I have heard; I can neither confirm nor deny the veracity of the statement, but it sure has a ring of truth to me.

Slowly, Memphis began to lose more and more blue-chip recruits to other schools. At first, it was just the University of Arkansas. They pilfered away premium roundball studs like Todd Day, Ron Huery, Corey Beck and Dwight Stewart (to name just a few) out of the Bluff City. After awhile, the torrent of talent rushing to other locales became so profligate that Memphis fans found themselves "guilting" such athletes as Hardaway and Elliot Perry into playing for Memphis.

If you did not live in Memphis at the time, you cannot fathom the pressure put on these two players to stay home and play for the Tigers.

In the end, however, the inability to keep enough top prospects from this hotbed of schoolboy talent cost Larry Finch, a local icon of mythical proportions, his job as head coach of the basketball team.

Attendance sank as the product on the floor continued to decline. It became harder and harder to get stud recruits to even consider Memphis.

In 1999, it all reached its nadir during a 15-16 season under young Johnny Jones, a man who was probably a couple of years away from being ready to lead a top-notch Division I team. The record could have just as easily been 8-23 or so. At least, to his credit, Jones did not disgrace the community with recruiting violations and an inability (or unwillingness?) to keep his kids in class (like Kirk) or a sex scandal with a co-ed (like his predecessor, Tic Price).

Enter John Calipari. The same coach who had been at the helm of the University of Massachusetts when it was rocked by the Marcus Camby scandal, who admitted after his graduation that he had accepted money and other perks from an NBA agent.

Calipari was cleared of any wrongdoing by the NCAA.

The same John Calipari who, after winning NBA Coach of the Year honors with the New Jersey Nets, was run out of town when he could not get his millionaire athletes to buy into his coaching philosophies. To show how far the Tigers basketball program had fallen by the year 2000, Tiger fans did not believe Calipri would ever agree to come to Memphis. Many clamored to give Jones, who had done a yeoman’s job in almost finishing .500 with a dearth of talent, at least a year or two to grow into the head coaching position. How do I know what Memphis fans were saying back then?

I know because I was one of them.

At length, the disgraced coach and the beleaguered program joined in a most unlikely union. Calipari, the slick salesman from Pennsylvania, landed on the banks of the Mighty Mississippi doing what he always does: making grand promises. Memphis would no longer be a local or even regional outfit; it would become a national program, competing on an equal footing with the North Carolinas and UCLAs of the world.

Long-time rivals Ole Miss and Arkansas were unceremoniously dropped from the schedule, even as Tiger fans howled in derision. Calipari was going to change the face of the program, raise expectations dramatically, and drag the complacent fan base, kicking and screaming, to heights never seen in this city. He promised to do so while running a clean program, graduating his players and reaching out to past Tiger greats.

Coach Calipari recruited relentlessly from coast to coast, landing his first big-name stud in 2001 with Dajuan Wagner (whom he rode to an NIT title) and gradually stanching the loss of homegrown talent with increasingly high-level prospects from all over the country. Yet, home town fans were becoming increasingly disenchanted. They were not satisfied with NIT appearances and first-round NCAA Tournament losses.

In 2005, Calipari landed his best recruiting class. The famed Laurinburg Preparatory School had finished the previous prep campaign 40-0 and was widely acclaimed as the greatest high school basketball team of all-time. Calipari was tight with the Laurinburg Head Coach, Chris Chaney, after his recruitment of Joey Dorsey the year before. Cal landed four seniors from that 40-0 squad: big men Kareem Cooper, Robert Dozier, Shawne Williams, and wing player Antonio Anderson.

After a  bittersweet 22-16 campaign during the 2004-05 season, the Tigers ripped off a fully-unexpected 33-4 record that carried them through to the Elite Eight.

The national media wrote it off as a fluke. The Tigers were expected to wither away into obscurity, as so many one-season wonders before them had done.

Rodney Carney, the human jumping bean with a deadly 3-point shot, graduated and was drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers. Shawne Williams turned professional, which caught Memphis fans by surprise. Sophomore guard Darius Washington, Jr. left for the NBA as well.  That was not a surprise, but it was a mistake for Washington. Not many pundits gave the Tigers much chance of success.

Memphis proved them wrong, going 33-4 and making the Elite Eight once more, losing to eventual runner-up Ohio State. Once again, their accomplishments were written off as a fluke, and the team, despite returning nearly everyone who had contributed to their overwhelming success, was once again expected to slip.

Calipari had other plans.

He landed the top unsigned prospect in the high school class of 2007, point guard Derrick Rose. The quicksilver guard, with size, strength, and an uncanny finishing ability, was the missing link for the Tiger squad. Along with junior All-American Chris Douglas-Roberts and senior defensive ace Joey Dorsey, Rose led the Tigers to an NCAA Division I record 38 victories.

Memphis came within three seconds of winning their first National Title before succumbing to the Kansas Jayhawks, 75-68 in overtime. Rose became the first overall pick of the 2008 NBA Draft, and both Dorsey and Douglas-Roberts were drafted, too.

Surely, the Tigers would take a significant step back in 2008-09, right? Now was their time to disappear from the national scene after losing so much talent and leadership.

Yet again, John Calipari had other plans.

Reloading by inking (once more) the most heralded unsigned senior in America, Tyreke Evans, Calipari and the Tigers stumbled out of the gates with a 6-3 mark, including a loss to Syracuse at FedEx Forum, the beautiful replacement for The Pyramid.

This led to one of the most fateful decisions of John Calipari’s college coaching career. He inserted Evans into the starting lineup as his point guard, and Memphis responded with  an 18-game winning streak.

The team is currently ranked No. 5 in the AP poll, No. 6 in the Coaches’ Poll, No. 1 in the esteemed Ken Pomeroy statistical ratings, and No.5 in the Sports Illustrated Power rankings, and they are likely to move up after this weekend's upsets.

So why are the Memphis Tigers not media darlings? The entire nation seems to love the underdog who makes good such as Gonzaga, Xavier and Davidson. All three of these programs, instead of being insulted due to their small-conference affiliation, are hailed as unlikely conquerors.

Memphis, however, is seen as an unwelcome interloper. It is fashionable to root against Memphis, for whatever obscure reason, instead of rejoicing their numerous triumphs. No other team in the history of NCAA Division I men’s basketball has ever won 38 games in a single season; yet, the national media and so-called pundits continue to deride the Tigers’ perceived lack of competition in Conference USA as if this somehow negates the astounding numbers that Memphis is rolling up.

They recorded a record 38 wins and were runner-ups last year, they have 54 consecutive conference wins. They started the 2007-2008 season with a 26-0 record. Now, they have a nation-leading (at the time of this article) 18-game winning streak in 2008-09.

Perhaps the Memphis program is hated because of Calipari, who, for all of his allies and good will, has collected his fair share of enemies since he began coaching around 2 decades ago. Maybe Memphis basketball is devalued because of the city that they represent.

It is possible that many feel threatened because the Tigers have won so much and have amassed almost cartoonish numbers. Seniors Anderson, Dozier, and Chance McGrady will shatter the record of 131 wins in 4 years; they already have 128 victories.  That is hard to accept for non-Memphis fans.

A combination of those factors (and probably others) is most likely the cause. In the final analysis, it is simply easier to dismiss this run of success and look over the horizon for the next flash-in-the-pan mid-major.

I hate to disappoint you. Actually, to be brutally honest, I am happy, ecstatic and overjoyed to disappoint you. The Memphis Tigers are not going to disappear and go quietly into the night. The incoming recruiting class, consisting of consensus top three selection Xavier Henry, silky smooth Nolan Dennis, and junior college beasts Will Coleman and Darnell Dodson, will mesh perfectly with returning talent such as Doneal Mack, Roburt Sallie, Shawn Taggart and Wesley Witherspoon.

If Tyreke Evans heads to the NBA Lottery, explosive point guard prospect John Wall, whom many consider the overall No. 1 prospect in the Class of 2009, is his possible replacement. Plus, DeMarcus Cousins, one of the three best big men in the class of 2009, has said that Memphis is his most likely destination. Michael Gilchrist, arguably the top target of the class of 2011, has declared unabashed interest in Memphis. The list goes on.

So there is the dirty little secret. The Memphis Tigers, like it or not, have established themselves as precisely what John Calipari promised that they would be: a national power. The program, despite the normal hiccups associated with teenage boys, is clean, and the kids graduate. Former Tigers by the boatload are returning for their degrees and, in some cases, to pursue an entry into the college coaching ranks.

All signs indicate that this will remain the case for the foreseeable future. In all fairness, it would be appreciated if others, particularly in the national media, would take notice and (at a minimum) stop trying to find reasons to cheapen what should be a stirring story.

Whatever happens from this point on during the 2008-09 season, at least anyone who is still reading this can say that they have been put on notice: something very special is happening in Memphis. A new power has arrived. What you do with that knowledge – whether you choose to believe it, dismiss it, or anything else – is strictly up to you.

Memphis, You're Still the (No.) 1: Top 25 Mid-Majors (Post Bracket-Busting)

Feb 22, 2009

This weekend's games, which included several upsets not only of top teams but also of mid-majors, have shuffled up the mid-major rankings significantly. Not much has changed at the top, but just about everything below No. 2 is up for grabs.

Dayton suffered yet another embarrassment with a 57-49 loss to St. Louis, while Xavier joined them by losing to an even worse Charlotte team.

During a week in which UNC and Oklahoma went down on the road, some mid-majors helped separate themselves from the pack, while others may have found a bubble bursting.

The first rankings had the Memphis Tigers on top by a wide margin, with Gonzaga at No. 2 and the rest of the field a significant step behind them.

Keep in mind that this is not so much a "Power Poll" of who is hot at the moment, but more of an AP-style ranking system that includes a body of work but rewards current play more heavily than games in November and December.

As a bonus, each team will be rated on the likelihood that they would be in the tournament if today were Selection Sunday, with a projected seed if appropriate.

The categories are "Virtual Lock" (since nothing is ever a sure thing in the NCAA), "Bubble In," "Bubble Out," and "Must Win Conference Tournament."

Biggest Gainers:  New Mexico Lobos (NR to No. 15) and Utah Utes (No. 9 to No. 3)

Biggest Drop: Boise State Broncos (No. 15 to NR)

Leading off once again are the ...

1. Memphis Tigers (24-3, 12-0 Conference USA)  LAST WEEK: 1

There are critics that feel that Memphis doesn't deserve to be ranked among the nation's elite (currently No. 5 AP and No. 6 ESPN/USA Today Coaches' Poll and likely to move up even higher tomorrow), as they clearly benefit from a soft schedule in a conference they continue to utterly dominate.

After hammering Gonzaga on the road, however, they obliterated three straight CUSA foes, by an average score of 75-44. It was a much tougher game at UTEP, and Memphis did not look dazzling, but they pulled out a seven-point win on the road.

Memphis is playing their best ball of the season, and only one difficult game is upcoming—at UAB next Thursday. If the Tigers' three-year conference winning streak is going to come to an end this year, this may be the most likely opponent to pull off the upset.

You can remove the word "virtual" from their lock status. I just don't happen to have that category.

Status:  Virtual Lock     Current Seed:  No. 2

2. Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-5, 12-0 West Coast Conference)  LAST WEEK: 2

Since breaking St. Mary's heart (and perhaps the Gaels' tournament chances) in a 72-70 road win, the Bulldogs have played inconsistently, with a relatively poor showing at San Francisco followed by blowouts of WCC cellar dwellers Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine.

There are simply no challenges left on the schedule, so the Zags are virtually guaranteed a 24-5 record heading into the WCC tournament. Only St. Mary's can play with them, and they would likely not meet until the conference finals. That game would be far more interesting if the Gaels' star PG Patrick Mills returns.

Status: Virtual Lock     Current Seed: No. 4

3. Utah Utes (19-7, 10-2 Mountain West Conference)  LAST WEEK: 9

I wanted to place Utah higher last week and losses by Dayton, Utah State, Davidson, Butler and Xavier have opened the door for the current MWC leader.

The Utes' whole season hinges on the next week and a half, with a home game against UNLV and road matchups against BYU and New Mexico. If they come out on top of the Mountain West after the music stops playing, they will earn a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament as champions of the best mid-major conference this year.

As they could potentially lose all four remaining conference games, I'm not ready to place them in the "Virtual Lock" category until they win at least one of them.

STATUS: Bubble In    CURRENT SEED: No. 6

4. Siena Saints (22-6, 15-1 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference)  LAST WEEK: 8

Siena isn't playing the most difficult competition at the moment in the MAAC, but they did decimate their best conference opponent of the last two weeks, Manhattan, in an impressive 93-69 rout.

A bracket buster game in which the Saints hosted current Missouri Valley leader Northern Iowa provided a slightly better test than Siena has been getting in MAAC play, where they are a two point loss at Rider from being undefeated. The Saints passed the test with flying colors, earning an 81-75 win.

With a rather weak bubble this year, that win may very well be enough to get the Saints into the Big Dance, regardless of whether or not they win their conference tourney. Siena is 20-3 since November, with two of those losses being to Pittsburgh and Kansas.

This may be too high of a ranking for Siena, but they are certainly improved from earlier in the year. It is hard to know just where they fall without more games against better competition. With everyone else losing, they get to move up in this particular poll.

STATUS: Bubble In     Current Seed: No. 9

5. Utah State Aggies (25-3, 9-1 Western Athletic Conference)  LAST WEEK: 7

The Aggies do have a two-point win over Utah on their resume, but Utah has without a doubt played the tougher schedule and has garnered a greater number of quality wins. Utah State can't be penalized too much for a loss on the road to St. Mary's, a team that is definitely learning to adapt to the loss of PG Patrick Mills.

In addition to their gaudy record and win over the Utes, the Aggies have recorded wins over Weber State, the same Idaho State team that defeated Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, Boise State, and own a sweep of New Mexico State.  The only teams to have taken down the Aggies were St. Mary's, BYU (by just five points) and Boise State in a season split, none of which can be considered "bad losses."

The loss to St. Mary's may very well be the difference between a seven seed and a 10 seed come NCAA Tournament time.

If the Aggies win against underrated Nevada, you can move them to virtual lock status.

STATUS: Bubble In     Current Seed: No. 10

6. Xavier Musketeers (22-5, 10-3 Atlantic 10)  LAST WEEK: 5

Xavier garners the No. 6 spot more or less by default as just about every mid-major below them suffered untimely losses. The Musketeers at least managed to handle George Washington today. Xavier has still lost three of five, and their tournament seed is plummeting.

Xavier is fortunate to have early-season wins over teams such as Virginia Tech, Auburn, Missouri, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Virginia to balance out their late collapse. The injury bug has bit them at point guard and if they don't adapt soon, they may quickly find themselves on the wrong side of the tournament bubble.

The remaining conference schedule is relatively easy (that and their quality wins explaining the "Virtual Lock" status), with only a home matchup at Dayton presenting a significant challenge. Of course, few thought the 49ers or Dukes would beat Xavier, either.

STATUS: Virtual Lock     CURRENT SEED:  No. 7

7. Dayton Flyers (23-4, 9-3 Atlantic 10)  LAST WEEK: 4

Oops, they did it again.

Dayton was poised to move to No. 3 in this poll before laying yet another egg against a much weaker conference opponent, losing by eight at St. Louis.

Positions four through 13 are all pretty tight, and another win over Xavier would certainly improve the Flyers' position. Of course, their remaining conference schedule doesn't have any "gimme"s, and a couple more losses (outside of Xavier) could potentially send Dayton to the NIT.

Status: Bubble In     Current Seed: No. 9


8. Butler Bulldogs (23-4, 13-3 Horizon League)  LAST WEEK: 6

The Bulldogs pulled out a critical road win at Davidson when they needed it, but let's be honest. Stephen Curry clearly wasn't at 100% and probably shouldn't have even been playing in the game.

The Bulldogs wouldn't even be ranked this high if BYU hadn't fell to UNLV last night while San Diego State was getting a beat down at the hands of New Mexico.

Two more conference losses to a mediocre team (Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and a poor (Loyola, Chicago) team had the Bulldogs reeling before the crucial game with Davidson.

The win over Davidson has likely given Butler the breathing room they need with a tough matchup against Cleveland State still looming in the regular-season finale. They would have to lose both conference games and again in the tournament to fall off the bubble at this point.

STATUS: Virtual Lock     Current Seed: No. 10

9. Brigham Young Cougars (20-6, 8-4 Mountain West)  LAST WEEK: 12

Brigham Young, UNLV, San Diego State, and Utah all have a virtual round-robin coming up in the next two weeks against each other. It will certainly sort out the top of the best mid-major conference in 2009, but it also may leave at least one of those four teams on the outside looking in when it comes to Selection Sunday.

New Mexico has an outside chance at landing a berth as well, but BYU impressively shot down the Lobos 73-62 on Tuesday. New Mexico responded by drubbing San Diego State last night.

BYU has four very tough games in a row (three on the road) and their schedule does not allow for "lock" status. They need at least a split with UNLV, San Diego State, Utah and Wyoming to assure themselves of an at-large bid.

The swing got off to rough start last night with a one-point loss to UNLV on the road.

STATUS: Bubble In     Current Seed: No. 9

10 (tie). St. Mary Gaels (22-5, 8-4 West Coast Conference)  LAST WEEK: 13

The Gaels may have just saved their season with a timely win over Utah State. With each passing game, it looks like St. Mary's is getting better at adapting to being without their star, Patrick Mills.

If he can return in time for the WCC tournament (which looks like a good possibility) and the Gaels can win their last two against the worst of the WCC, then the Selection Committee is likely to grant them a ticket to the Dance, as injuries are considered (if the player has returned and can contribute).

The move from "Bubble Out" to "Bubble In" with three straight wins over Portland, San Diego, and Utah State.

STATUS: Bubble In     Current Seed: No. 11

10 (tie). San Diego State (18-7, 8-4 Mountain West)  LAST WEEK: 10

Like many of their MWC brethren, San Diego State has just one relatively easy game left on the schedule (Colorado State) and will need to split the other four (at New Mexico, BYU, at TCU, UNLV) to assure themselves an at-large bid.

They were beaten like a rug (or a drum, or a red-headed step-child, take your pick) by New Mexico last night, not exactly a good start.

STATUS: Bubble In     Current Seed: No. 12

12. Davidson (22-6, 15-2 Southern Conference)  LAST WEEK: 3

As goes Stephen Curry's ankle, so go the Wildcats. Without him, they were trounced by conference contender Citadel 64-46, causing them to plummet in this poll.

Curry was back for the Butler loss, but it's doubtful that his ankle was at 100 percent.

The Wildcats' best non-conference win remains a December victory at West Virginia, and they are helped by wins over N.C. State and James Madison (to a much smaller degree) as well. None of their losses are terrible, and they could potentially sneak in if today were Selection Sunday.

Their hopes fully hinge on the progress of Curry's healing ankle.

STATUS: Bubble Out     Current Seed: Out

13. UNLV Runnin' Rebels (20-7, 8-5 Mountain West)  LAST WEEK: 11

They have won three of four (including a victory over BYU last night, but still face Utah and San Diego St. on the road). They may have just taken Davidson's at-large bid. Their ranking dropped here due to the devastating mid-week loss at Wyoming.

STATUS: Bubble In, by a hair     Current Seed: No. 12, last at-large team in


14. Creighton Blue Jays (23-6, 12-4 Missouri Valley)  LAST WEEK: 14

They are starting to make a strong case for an at-large bid, with early-season wins over Dayton and New Mexico and a weekend win over the CAA's George Mason. Still, with a generally weak non-conference schedule, they remain one of the first teams out at the moment.

STATUS: Bubble Out, by a hair     Current Seed: Out

15. New Mexico Lobos (17-10, 8-4 MWC)  LAST WEEK: NR

The Lobos have won four of five, including victories over UNLV and San Diego St. (75-49). New Mexico's only loss during that span was to BYU.

STATUS: Bubble Out     Current Seed: Out

16. UAB Blazers (19-8, 9-3 Conference USA)  LAST WEEK: 17

They've won nine of 10, their last loss by just one point to Tulsa. A win over Memphis easily puts this team on the right side of the bubble. Their only decent non-conference win is over Arizona.

STATUS: Bubble Out     Current Seed: Out


17. Niagara Purple Eagles (22-7, 12-4 MAAC)  LAST WEEK: 18

The mid-week loss to a resurgent Rider team hurt, but the drubbing of Illinois State was impressive. A win over Siena is not likely to be enough to earn an at-large bid.

STATUS: Must win MAAC Tourney


18. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (19-8, 13-3 Sun Belt)  LAST WEEK: 22

They have now won six of seven and impressively defeated Arkansas-Little Rock.

STATUS: Must win Sun Belt Tourney


19. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (18-9, 8-4 Conference USA)  LAST WEEK: 19

STATUS: Must win CUSA Tourney

20. Houston Cougars (17-8, 8-4 Conference USA)  LAST WEEK: 16

An embarrassing loss to Marshall drops the Cougars, even if they did rebound to beat Central Florida.

STATUS: Must win Conference USA Tourney

21. Vermont Catamounts (22-7, 12-3 America East)  LAST WEEK: 24

Vermont looked impressive in beating MAC leader Buffalo over the weekend.

STATUS: Must win America East Tourney

22. Illinois State Redbirds (22-6, 11-5 Missouri Valley)  LAST WEEK: 21

Niagara humbled the Redbirds to end their three-game winning streak.

STATUS: Must win Missouri Valley Tourney


23. Temple Owls (16-9, 8-3 Atlantic 10)  LAST WEEK: NR

The Owls have won six of seven, but they have done so against mediocre A-10 competition.

STATUS: Must win Atlantic 10 Tourney


24. Binghamton Bearcats (18-8, 11-3 America East)  LAST WEEK: 25

The highlight of their resume is two wins over America East leader Vermont.

STATUS: Must win America East Tourney

25. North Dakota State Bison (21-6, 14-2 Summit)  LAST WEEK: NR

Their win on the road at Wisconsin-Milwaukee during bracket buster weekend allows them to slip past Virginia Commonwealth and Eric Maynor for the final spot in this week's poll. The Bison have won 13 of 14. VCU has lost two of three and three of six.

STATUS: Must win Summit Conference Tourney


Just Missed: VCU, Wyoming, Weber State, Northern Iowa, Buffalo, Radford

Dropped Out: No. 15 Boise State, No. 20 VCU, No. 23 Buffalo

Memphis Tigers Quietly Creeping Towards a Top Seed

Feb 18, 2009

Can you hear it? It’s yet another thunderous thud. No. 1 Connecticut is dropped by Pitt, and it’s quickly followed by No. 5 Michigan State getting smacked by Purdue. The college basketball season is a noisy one, especially for programs hovering near the top.

But listen again—can you hear that? That’s Southern silence. Those are your Memphis Tigers quietly dodging the falling trees and creeping closer to becoming one of the top tournament seeds.

The Tigers may not be equipped with the same noisemakers as other programs since losing to Kansas in last year’s title game, then losing freshman Derrick Rose to the Chicago Bulls. They’re also not facing juggernaut combatants in Conference USA, so it leaves little to report or applaud.

But even after the departure of their top playmaker, and being swept under the C-USA rug, Memphis (AP No. 5, Coaches’ No. 6) is in a great position to make a run towards the top. In making the slow climb, they continue to move without a peep.

If second-ranked Oklahoma survives the week, they’re likely Monday’s new top dog. The Tar Heels won’t be far behind, and Hasheem Thabeet-conquering Pittsburgh will join the logjam near the top.

But all three of those programs have season obstacles remaining before they head into an even more challenging conference tournament. Memphis travels on a smooth surface, with greater odds of completing their season and conference tournament unscathed.

The current RPI rankings place Memphis seventh, at .643. The three programs I project to top the rankings next week have the highest marks, but that isn’t likely to hold through the end of the season and preliminary tournaments. If all three were to stumble somewhere between now and then, the Tigers could easily snag one of the top tournament seeds.

But the hopes aren’t even that extreme, because all it may take is for one tree to fall in the Hardwood Forest, and Memphis will be eyeing the light at the top of the seeding hill.

Shhh.

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Memphis Tops A New Top 25 Poll: Outside The Power Conferences

Feb 15, 2009

Much has been made of the meaningless "conference comparison" between the current behemoths of college basketball—the Big East and the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The discussion is fun for fans of the sport (when it stays civil), but it means nothing to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee who ranks and seeds teams regardless of conference affiliation.

The "Big Six" conferences (the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac-10, and SEC) dominate most of the top-25 rankings, most of the television time, and a majority of college basketball discussions that don't include the words "mid-major" or "bubble."

In the spirit of Bracket Buster week, I present a top 25 that looks at teams outside the Big Six. Capsules are included for the top 10.

1. Memphis Tigers (22-3, 10-0 Conference USA)

Memphis' last loss was to Syracuse almost two months ago, and they have continued their unbelievable conference winning streak—thoroughly dominating Tulsa and Southern Mississippi to run the streak to 52 consecutive in Conference USA. The seniors on this team have won an astounding 126 games.

2. Gonzaga Bulldogs (19-5, 10-0 West Coast Conference)

The drop-off from No. 1 to No. 2 is significant, considering that Memphis dominated the Bulldogs on the road, 68-50. The drop-off from No. 2 to the rest of the field is fairly significant as well. If Patrick Mills of the St. Mary's Gaels doesn't break his wrist, Gonzaga is not even the best team in the WCC.

3. Davidson Wildcats (22-4, 15-1 Southern Conference)

Davidson, like many of the mid-majors of late, slipped in a surprising 77-75 loss to the Charleston Cougars, who have dropped to No. 3 in the SoCon South (and overall) standings with two losses to the Citadel Bulldogs. Charleston was a surprising loss for Davidson, but not an awful one. Charleston defeated likely NCAA tournament team South Carolina earlier in the season.

The more pressing matter is Stephen Curry's ankle sprain, which is currently listed as day-to-day. Expect Curry to be fully healed by the time the conference tournament rolls around, though he may be out for a much-anticipated clash with a ranked Butler squad. Davidson should be able to handle the rest of their SoCon opponents, even without Curry.

4. Dayton Flyers (23-3, 9-2 Atlantic 10)

I have enjoyed the wrath of mostly anonymous Dayton fans ever since writing a critical article of both their schedule and their close wins over poor teams and three losses to mediocre (or worse) teams—most recently at Charlotte, after early-season losses to Creighton and Massachusetts.

However, Butler's loss to a terrible Loyola (Chicago) team causes them to slip behind Dayton in the current poll. Until the Flyers actually lose the close games they have pulled out (including a one-point win over 3-19 Fordham), this is the appropriate spot for them.

5. Xavier Musketeers (21-4, 9-2 Atlantic 10)

Xavier's upside and potential may be higher than Dayton's, but their loss to the Flyers necessitates falling a spot below them. The Musketeers have now lost two of three, dropping a game at Duquesne, a team that Dayton defeated handily on the road.

6. Butler Bulldogs (22-3, 13-2 Horizon League)

Two weeks ago, they were easily the class of the mid-majors, earning a top-15 ranking as they cruised through the Horizon League schedule. The loss to Wisconsin-Green Bay can be forgiven; the Bulldogs were on the road and the Phoenix are a quality team at No. 2 in the Horizon.

Today's loss to Loyola (Chicago) is a far different scenario. The Ramblers are a sub-.500 team that was coming off of six straight losses, including a 71-47 shellacking at Valparaiso just two days before the tilt with Butler.

7. Utah State (24-2, 12-1 Western Athletic Conference)

There's no shame in the loss at Boise State, easily the No. 2 team in the WAC. It did snap the Aggies' 19-game winning streak and will also likely make for a short stay in the polls for USU. They are still likely to earn an at-large berth even without a conference championship if they get back to their winning ways.

A showdown with St. Mary's of the WCC looms—a team that looks a bit lost without Patrick Mills. The Gaels can't be taken lightly, however, as they gave Gonzaga all they could handle in last week's matchup. The only challenging conference game remaining is at the underrated Nevada Wolfpack on Feb. 28.

8. Siena Saints (20-6, 14-1 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference)

Though Siena hasn't been able to pull out victories against most of the quality teams they have faced, they have ripped through the MAAC and reestablished themselves as the team to beat in the conference, with a two-game lead over Niagara.

Some non-conference wins look more impressive now, including wins over MAC leader Buffalo and WAC contender Boise State. The Saints are a two-point loss at Rider (the MAAC's No. 3 team) from being undefeated in conference play. Half of Siena's losses came between Nov. 27 and Nov. 30, 2008 by a total of 17 points. Another two are to highly-ranked teams Pittsburgh and Kansas.

9. Utah Utes (18-7, 9-2 Mountain West Conference)

This is awfully low for a Mountain West team, as it may be the strongest of the non-Big Six conferences, with four teams (Utah, UNLV, San Diego State and BYU) having reasonable shots at an NCAA Tournament berth. However, the top teams have beat each other up in Texas-Oklahoma-Texas Tech football fashion, with a few non-conference losses sprinkled in.

Utah is on a six-game tear that includes wins at home over BYU and San Diego State. Their last two losses? They are to UNLV and San Diego St. Early-season losses to Southwest Baptist (ouch) and at Idaho State are long forgotten. Wins over Gonzaga and LSU (by a stunning 30 points) are not.

10. San Diego State Aztecs (18-6, 8-3 Mountain West Conference)

So, no surprise here, because the Aztecs' two most recent losses are to Utah and BYU. See above about the MWC shooting each other in the feet. With just one (somewhat) bad loss at Wyoming, San Diego State is solidly on the NCAA bubble. The Aztecs' stretch run includes critical home games against BYU and UNLV. In true MWC spirit, expect a split.

11. UNLV Runnin Rebels (19-6, 7-4 Mountain West Conference)

12. Brigham Young Cougars (19-5, 7-3 Mountain West Conference)

13. St. Mary's Gaels (20-5, 7-4 West Coast Conference)

The Gaels are collapsing without Patrick Mills, but put up one hell of a fight against Gonzaga this week.

14. Creighton Bluejays (21-6, 11-4 Missouri Valley Conference)

The Bluejays are quickly becoming the class of the MVC, winning seven of their last eight. They also have a win against Dayton on their resume.

15. Boise State Broncos (17-7, 7-4, Western Athletic Conference)

The Broncos scored a huge win over Utah State this week to shoot up these rankings.

16. Houston Cougars (16-7, 7-3 Conference USA)

It would have helped if Aubrey Coleman hadn't been suspended in the Cougars' loss to conference rival UTEP.

17. UAB Blazers (17-8, 7-3 Conference USA)

18. Niagara Purple Eagles (21-6, 12-3 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference)

19. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (17-9, 7-4 Conference USA)

20. Virginia Commonwealth (18-8, 11-4 Colonial Athletic Association)

Eric Maynor keeps this team in the top 20 all by himself.

21. Illinois State Redbirds (20-5, 9-5 Missouri Valley Conference)

The opening-season winning streak is long forgotten. With five conference losses, the Redbirds will need a conference tourney win to make the Big Dance this year, something this team is completely capable of.

22. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (17-8, 11-3 Sun Belt)

Big wins (e.g., Louisville) and bad losses (e.g., at Denver) make this team very difficult to figure out.

23. Buffalo Bulls (17-6, 9-2 Mid-American Conference)

Their weekend loss to Ball State hurts their standing here.

24. Vermont Catamounts (20-7, 11-3 American East)

They've won 11 of 12 but two losses to Binghamton are a stain on their record.

25. Binghamton Bearcats (17-8, 10-3 American East)

Just Missed the Cut: VMI (Big South), George Mason (CAA), Northeastern (CAA), Northern Iowa (MVC), Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt), North Dakota State (Summit)

Others Considered: New Mexico (MWC), Wisconsin-Green Bay (Horizon), Portland (WCC), Troy (Sun Belt), Weber State (Big Sky), Charleston (Southern), Hofstra (CAA), UTEP (CUSA), Robert Morris (Northeast), UT-Martin (Ohio Valley), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Portland State (Big Sky), Temple (A-10), Central Florida (CUSA), Duquesne (A-10), American (Patriot)

The Best Rivalry You've Never Heard of

Feb 7, 2009

This evening, starting at five o'clock, two of the biggest games in Houston will be played in Hofheinz Pavilion, on the University of Houston Campus.

And most people don't know about them.  Most people don't care about them.  Most people don't know why they don't care, or why they should.

Tonight, on Cullen Blvd., the Super Bowl will be played, twice.

Alright, alright, I know that the NFL is basically done, and Houston hasn't had anything to do with that big game since 2004.  And I know that most people don't even bother to look out the window at the vast expanse of Houston as they fly between the coasts. But these really are two of the biggest games of the year.

Tonight, on Guy V. Lewis Court, the University of Houston Cougars face the Rice Owls in two games of NCAA Division I basketball.

Wow, you say.  That was really built up, only to come down to insignificant games between insignificant teams.  And maybe you're right.  Maybe they are insignificant teams.  But these certainly aren't insignificant games.

Houston and Rice are the two closest Division I campuses, only six miles apart.  They're connected by a dedicated T-3 network line to each other and the Texas Medical Center, exclusively for sharing research in biochemistry, nanotechnology, superconducting, and any number of other unpronounceables.  They're connected by the city they share, specifically by MacGregor Drive.

But they're separated by mission:  Rice is part of the Ivy League of the South; Houston is the school for the working-class families.  They're separated by athletic history and tradition: Rice athletics has been nearly noncompetitive since the 1960's; while Houston only began to blossom then, and now has five Final Fours, three NBA players of the century, three Cotton Bowl wins, sixteen golf team national titles, and many other honors.

In basketball, they're also separated by all-time record: UH women lead 42-7, UH men lead 53-14.

This year, the Houston men are in a tie for fifth in conference, and with teams ahead of them playing in tough games or trap games, could move to third by midnight with a win. The Rice men stand 10th, but a hot streak could help them leapfrog two teams at a time to climb the standings quickly.

The Lady Cougars are surprising the league this year, in fourth place with a team of freshmen and sophomores, ready to climb on any game day.  The Lady Owls haven't won a conference game yet.

Okay, so you still think I'm silly for getting so excited about four insignificant teams.  But you haven't seen these games lately.

As Houston coach Tom Penders told a local radio show on Friday, in these games against Rice, you can throw out the records.  The hosts agreed, remembering that they had never seen another series with such strange twists and developments.

While I say that Rice has been nearly noncompetitive (except in baseball), they are always competitive when playing Houston.  This is their NCAA tournament, Finals, World Series, and Olympics.  This is their Super Bowl.

And Houston does not back down from that challenge.  Coaches, writers, scouts, fans - all marvel at the way both teams play "faster;" not just running faster, but with that edge and grit and determination normally reserved for the last game of one's life.

Tonight, you can come see the Super Bowl of college basketball.  Twice.  The ladies will tip-off at 5 PM, with the gentlemen to follow at 8 PM. One ticket will be valid for both matchups, and can be acquired at the door, or at the Cougars' athletic site.