Vanderbilt Basketball

When Vanderbilt matches up with Wisconsin on Saturday, it will be a tale of two different styles of basketball, and Vanderbilt's long-range game will be the difference.

While Vanderbilt enjoys running up and down the floor and taking a good amount of long-range shots, Wisconsin is the exact opposite, as they slow the pace and force their opponent into half-court game.

The biggest asset for the Badgers is that they make the other team play their style of play, and do not think Vanderbilt does not know that.

Vanderbilt and Wisconsin's matchup on Saturday will decide which style of play is better in the NCAA Tournament, and Vanderbilt's John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor will both play major factors in how this game will pan out.

For Vanderbilt to win on Saturday over Wisconsin, it will need to hit shots from nearly every point on the floor.  The main thing the Commodores have going for them is that Wisconsin's pace of play does not make them a suitable team to come back from big deficits.

If Vanderbilt's long-range game is on point, then the Badgers could be in for an uphill battle from the very beginning.

The X-factor in this instance is Vanderbilt guard Jenkins, who had a monster game against Harvard on Thursday, with 27 points on 7-of-12 shooting from the floor.  

It's his three-point game that needs to be ready to go on Saturday, as Wisconsin does not let much up inside, as forward Festus Ezeli will find out. 

The Commodores will also need a better contribution from forward Jeffrey Taylor if they want to get past the Badgers.  Taylor had his usual game of 15 points, but tends to get lost in the game when Jenkins starts shooting on a constant basis, which will happen at some point in this game.

 Taylor is the veteran of this bunch and he will need to make his mark when this game gets close,  which it will.

If Taylor and Jenkins are hitting their shots, which seems to be the norm these days, the Commodores should be able to creep past Wisconsin on Saturday.  

Also, look for meaningful contribution from Vanderbilt guard Brad Tinsley from three-point range.  He will need to be clutch when the team needs him to be against the Badgers, as this game looks like a close matchup to the very end.

This year's matchup between the No. 5 seed Vanderbilt Commodores (24-10) and the No. 12 seed Harvard Crimson (26-4) is jam packed with storylines. Harvard playing in their first tourney since 1946 is certainly one. Another recurring theme is "The Battle of the GPAs," as two schools face off who are more esteemed for their performance in the classroom than on the court.  

Although, perhaps the most evident storyline is Vanderbilt's recent struggles in the tournament's opening round, where the 'Dores haven't advanced to the second round since 2006-07. Their battle-tested senior squad has something to prove in this matchup despite knocking off No. 1 Kentucky on Sunday in the SEC tournament championship. 

Harvard is not your average Ivy League champion. Led by Tommy Amaker, they flirted with the Top 25 much of the year and climbed as high as No. 22.

The Commodores are led by junior star John Jenkins, who averages more than 20 points per game. Jenkins has taken and made more three-pointers than anyone in the country this year.  

Where: University Arena, Albuquerque, New Mexico

When: Thursday, March 15 at 4:25 p.m. ET 

Watch: TNT

Line: Vanderbilt -6.5 via VegasInsider

Vanderbilt's X-factor

Jeffrey Taylor. Viewed by many as a first-round pick in the upcoming NBA draft, Taylor has had his ups and downs as a Commodore. Now a senior, he will want more than ever to make his first run in the NCAA tournament.

If he becomes lethargic offensively and settles for jump shots, Vandy could be heading back to Music City in a hurry. If he attacks the paint and uses his athleticism, they could run Harvard out of the arena.

Harvard's X-factor

Laurent Rivard. Although it's not their style of play, the Crimson will be forced to play a quick-paced game with an emphasis on outside shooting at times. 

Rivard is Harvard's best three-point threat with a .390 percentage from deep. To cancel out Vandy's sharpshooter Jenkins, Rivard will need to be on his game and make more shots than he misses.

Perhaps more important than his shooting, Rivard will need to lock down Jenkins on the defensive side of the ball. Jenkins will run circles around the court for the whole 35-second shot clock, so it's easy to get worn down and give him a look at the basket. 

Key Matchup

Harvard's strength is undoubtedly down low, but the Commodores aren't exactly weak in the post. Vanderbilt's Festus Ezeli has a NBA body and skill set, as seen by his 17 points on Anthony Davis in their most recent win against Kentucky.

The Crimson have a formidable frontcourt duo in Keith Wright and Kyle Casey, who carry the load on the offensive end. They will need to keep the game down there in order to pull out a victory. If they prove to be incapable of guarding Vandy on the perimeter, however, it could be a long game.

Prediction

Harvard was expected to be a tournament sleeper this year, but the selection committee didn't do them any favors by matching them up against a trendy Final Four pick in Vanderbilt. No. 12 seeds have a recent history of pulling the upset, but the 'Dores are too experienced to suffer another first-round exit.  

Vanderbilt 74, Harvard 66 

Here's my beef with the bulk of NCAA tournament coverage between Selection Sunday and the opening weekend of March Madness (of which I am admittedly an infinitesimally small part): There's so much of it—so much glossing and re-glossing over seeding and matchups and sleepers and so on—that underdogs can easily become upset specials (and vice versa) by virtue of being dissected ad nauseum!

It should come as little surprise then that I'm on pins and needles awaiting the start of the Big Dance, as much for the fantastic college basketball to come as for the silence that's soon to befall the incessant yammering of "experts" and talking heads who've been so kind to offer us all assistance in filling out our brackets.

Don't be too surprised if their Cinderella/sleeper/upset picks flop, including these three, all of whom look likely to falter before too long.

Vanderbilt

I know, I know—I like the Commodores, too! They're talented, they can shoot, they're experienced (four seniors and a junior in the starting lineup) and they just beat No. 1 overall seed Kentucky.

So why won't Vandy make a run, you ask?

One word: history.

The Commodores have lost to double-digit seeds in each of their last three trips to the Big Dance, twice as a No. 4 seed and once as a No. 5 seed.

And what is Vanderbilt this time around? A fifth seed, against 12th-seeded Harvard in a Battle of the Brainiacs.

Oh, and that same talent and experience that Kevin Stallings' squad sports were also on hand for its early exits in each of the last two tourneys. 

Cal

There's a reason the Bears got knocked out of the Pac-12 tournament by Colorado—they're not very good!

Sure, Mike Montgomery has some nice players on hand, including Pac-12 Player of the Year Jorge Gutierrez, leading scorer Allen Crabbe and Harper Kamp in the post. And Bak Bak—can't forget about Bak Bak.

Really, Cal has a decent squad but, like everyone else in the Pac-12 this year, Cal failed to consistently put the requisite pieces together.

Sure, they could be this year's VCU, making a run as one of the last four at-large teams in. Or, they could just as easily struggle against South Florida in Dayton on Wednesday and head back to Berkeley shortly thereafter.

Hmmm—I'll go with the latter.

Connecticut

Red flags should've gone up across America when UConn needed a bit of mercy from the selection committee just to crack the 68-team field. After all, the Huskies are the defending champs with a slew of key returnees, including Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier, not to mention a pair of "Diaper Dandies" in Andre Drummond and Ryan Boatright to round out the roster.

Granted, much of UConn's struggles stemmed from Jim Calhoun's health problems, Kemba Walker's departure to the NBA and a grueling schedule in the Big East.

That being said, if UConn could only barely survive that onslaught, how can the team possibly hope to hold up against Kentucky in the second round—or even Iowa State in the first?

If you don't know who Royce White is, then you'd best get familiar. The 6'8", 270-pound point forward carried the Cyclones to a fourth-place finish in the Big 12 with wins over Kansas and Baylor, and White is just as liable to steamroll whoever the Huskies throw in his path.

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It would be easy for the Vanderbilt Commodores to remain on cloud nine after handing the Kentucky Wildcats just their second loss of the season to win the SEC tournament for the first time since 1951.

Head coach Kevin Stallings still didn't seem convinced that this team has solved the inconsistent play that plagued them early in the season.

He cited in his postgame press conference that you really never know what you're going to get with the Commodores, but also that when they come together they're a good team.

That's exactly what you want to hear out of your head coach following one of the biggest wins in program history, because it keeps the players hungry heading into a very tough matchup against a defensive-minded Harvard squad.

The Commodores have been guilty more than a few times of coming into a game with a lack of focus, and that got them beaten by teams like Cleveland State and Indiana State early on.

If the Commodores avoided those lapses in focus, then this team could easily be looking at a No. 3 seed at the moment.

Instead, the Commodores will have to figure out a way to get an offensive flow going against a team that gave fits to Florida State's offense back in late November.

Despite the SEC tournament championship, the monkey still isn't off the back of this team. They still haven't silenced all of the critics who see them as a one-and-done squad.

This is the third straight appearance for the Commodores in the NCAA Tournament, but none of that matters until the Commodores make a deep run into the tournament like they're capable of doing.

Stallings knows this and wants to keep seniors like Jeffery Taylor and Festus Ezeli focused on what lies ahead instead of dwelling on taking down Kentucky for the SEC championship.

Who could blame these guys for celebrating a little bit? But Harvard isn't interested in dwelling on anything but the Commodores, and the Commodores better feel the same way.

One thing the Commodores don't have to worry about is facing an enormous crowd cheering against them like they had to worry about in New Orleans, or "Blue Orleans."

With both teams playing over 1,000 miles away from their respective campuses, it will be the true definition of playing on a neutral floor.

That should help the Commodores stay focused.

Even though Harvard statistically plays some of the best defense in the country, it's safe to say that if the Commodores can score over 70 against Kentucky's freakish athletes, then they can do the same against a Harvard team that is undersized.

If the Commodores stay poised, then they should take a giant step toward forgetting about their recent troubles in the first round.

The problem is, that's a big "if."

You've seen it happen a hundred times before: David notches a colossal win over Goliath, only to fall to a seemingly inferior opponent just days later.

It's the trap game phenomenon, and Vanderbilt is in serious danger of experiencing it against Harvard in the first round of the NCAA tournament this week.

It is possible that I'm a bit biased since I've been in the Boston area during Harvard's rise to greatness (if you can call it that), so I've been in the midst of the media blitz surrounding its 26-4 season and its first trip to the Big Dance since the 1940s.

But the Crimson are underrated. They've been knocking off Boston College like they're middle-schoolers on a playground for years, and with Tommy Amaker at the helm, they are far more dangerous than people tend to give them credit for.

Amaker played at Duke and began his coaching career there as an assistant, then moved on to Seton Hall and Michigan. He was fired from Michigan following the 2006-2007 season after failing to take the Wolverines to the NCAA tournament in six seasons, then promptly moved on to Harvard.

Five years later, Amaker has done with the Crimson what he couldn't do with the big bad Wolverines.

Vanderbilt, alternately, embarked on an incredible late-season run and was able to do what just one other team this season could: beat Kentucky. The Commodores took down Georgia, Mississippi and the Wildcats in succession to win the SEC tournament after finishing second in the conference standings.

The Commodores have beaten three ranked opponents this season (Marquette, Florida and Kentucky), and granted, the competition they face on a weekly basis far exceeds what Harvard faces in the Ivy League. Harvard notched just one win over a ranked team (against Florida State at the Battle 4 Atlantis back in November—true story). Clearly, Vanderbilt's tournament run and its defeat of the seemingly insurmountable Wildcats was more impressive than anything Harvard did this year.

But when you're riding high from that kind of victory and you've just poured your blood, sweat and tears into one game—and then you have to face an unfamiliar opponent with a knack for pulling off the upset just four days later in neutral territory—strange things can happen.

On Thursday, the Crimson will be playing the disrespect card, and they will be desperate to prove they deserve to be dancing, while Vanderbilt may be riding too high to come back down.

Textbook trap game.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have been trying to live up to preseason potential all year long, and with their win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament final, they are finally there. 

The Commodores were a top-10 squad heading into the season, but have never been able to consistently play like it.

Whether it was because big man Festus Ezeli missed time at the beginning of the season or because of the lack of contributions behind Ezeli, Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins, the 'Dores just couldn't put together a long stretch of good basketball.

Fortunately for Vandy, they got to play in the postseason before the real postseason, and they are now playing their best basketball of the year.

Today against Kentucky, the 'Dores were essentially on the road. Yes, the game was in New Orleans, but the crowd seemed to be 80 percent Wildcats.

Every time the 'Cats scored five or seven straight points, it appeared the roof was going to blow off, and if Vanderbilt didn't score the game would be over. But the 'Dores scored every time they had their backs against the wall.

That arguably says more about this team than any stat or (enter letter here)PI number. Simply put, when it comes down to it, Vanderbilt can win games. And it showed today it is an elite team.

The 'Dores beat Kentucky, a team that was considered to be unbeatable. 

The 'Dores didn't just beat Kentucky, they handled the Wildcats for most of the game.

Kevin Stallings out-coached John Calipari.

He forced the 'Cats to settle for perimeter shots and he got his team out in transition, which limited Kentucky's terrific length on the defensive end. 

I realize this was a close game, but Vanderbilt looked like the better, more composed team. And I realize Kentucky is still clearly the best team in the country, but the 'Dores need to be considered elite.

You've probably heard the phrase, "hot at the right time" about a million times.

Well, make it a million and one because it applies perfectly to this Vanderbilt squad, which established themselves today as a very dangerous five seed.

The Vanderbilt Commodores took down the giant, cut down the nets and are now the SEC champions.

Vandy players hoisted the SEC Championship trophy today as they beat the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats 71-64 in New Orleans.

Vandy upset the best team in the nation and this is the first SEC Title for Vanderbilt since 1951, when they coincidentally beat Kentucky 61-57.

When the 'Big-3" for Vandy produces, they are a deadly team. Jeffrey Taylor had 18 points, Festus Ezeli had 17 and John Jenkins had 17 as well. 

Vanderbilt stuck with a man-to-man defense on Kentucky for the majority of the game, clogging the middle and stopping easy buckets from Davis.

By stuffing the middle, the Dores left the three-point shot open for UK. It was a gamble Vandy had to take, and it paid off as Kentucky went 6-28 from long range.

Vanderbilt's John Jenkins, the best shooter in the SEC and possibly the nation, had little room to shoot the three, but found a way to get to the free-throw line and score points.

Jenkins was contained to only 3-10 from downtown, but was 8-9 from the free-throw line, helping Vanderbilt stay in the game, especially late in the second half.

Ezeli shot 5-9 from the field and was very effective in powering through Anthony Davis, getting to the foul line, and not fouling out.

A huge spark for Vandy was the fearless play of freshman Kedren Johnson off the bench, who finished with 23 minutes, six points and had the biggest play of the game: a three-point-play that put VU up three with 1:30 left to play.

Also, the Dores finished the game with a 16-2 run in the final 5:23 as UK went ice cold and Vandy took advantage, locked down with a 2-3 defense and executed.

Kentucky will undoubtedly still receive the overall number one seed in the NCAA tournament, but after perfectly going through the SEC season, they slipped and are not SEC champions.

Vanderbilt is projected to get anywhere between a four-seed and a six-seed, and this win will definitely work in their favor.

This is a great step for Kevin Stallings and gives the Commodores much needed momentum heading into the tourney.

Vanderbilt played Kentucky the hardest of any opponent in all three match-ups this season, and the third time was the charm.

The Commodores outplayed, out-hustled and out-coached Kentucky and now they are the Southeastern Conference Champions.

How will Kentucky respond to this loss in the tournament? Better yet, how deep can Vandy go if they execute like they did today against the best team in the NCAA?

The Kentucky Wildcats have steamrolled through pretty much everyone this season, and that includes Vanderbilt—twice.

Still, Vanderbilt has been the closest to beating the Wildcats, so the SEC Tournament final should be a good one, no matter how dominant the 'Cats are. 

Here's a look at what the Commodores need to do, both on offense and defense, to pull the huge upset.

Let Anthony Davis Shoot the Ball

Davis, arguably the National Player of the Year, is dominant on both sides of the ball. There's no way to slow down his defensive presence, but the 'Dores can slow him on offense.

The talented freshman has been hitting the mid-range and even the three-point ball as of late, so he's obviously getting better with the jump-shot, but you just have to pick your poison. 

Don't compromise the rest of the defense by trying to stop Davis from hitting the jumper. If he knocks those down with consistency, so be it. However, if you start concentrating on Davis on defense, the 'Cats have much more dangerous offensive weapons. 

Get in Transition

Kentucky is so long, so athletic and so talented. Even if the Wildcats didn't have good defenders, which they do, their half-court defense would be tough to beat simply because of their size.

But they are also active and smart, so beating them in the half-court is out the question.

This step starts with defensive rebounding. The 'Dores have to box out on the defensive end (Kentucky is dangerous on the offensive glass), get out in transition and find John Jenkins or Jeffrey Taylor spotting up on the wings.

Vanderbilt shoots the ball better than any team in the conference, and the best way to get shots against Kentucky is in transition.

Prediction

Kentucky 70, Vanderbilt 68