St Louis Blues

Goaltending largely has been the Achilles’ heel for the St. Louis Blues in the playoffs ever since the franchise’s inception. Tied for the most points at the Olympic break, inconsistent play from Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott could prevent the club from making a serious run at the Stanley Cup.

The Blues’ front office has three options as they head down the home stretch of the regular season:

1. Stay the course

Halak and Elliott are very good—during short stretches, even great. But neither has been able to put a stranglehold on the No. 1 job in St. Louis.

Halak started the season strong, posting 14 wins with a .915 save percentage in October and November. Struggles in December led to just three victories and a .885 save percentage before rebounding with a 1.70 goals-against average in January.

Goalies are entitled to their ups and downs, but when Halak struggles, the challenge appears to be as much mental as physical.

Reliability also has been a major issue. Injuries have limited Halak to two playoff games for the Blues. Healthy at the end of last season, Coach Ken Hitchcock decided to ride the hot hand of Elliott in St. Louis’ first-round loss to Los Angeles.

Halak’s stellar play in helping the Canadiens overcome a 3-1 series deficit to the Capitals in the 2010 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals is well-documented. It forced Montreal to choose between Carey Price and him, ultimately leading to his trade to St. Louis.

That means little now. Overlooked in Halak’s small sample of greatness four years ago are the games in that series, as well as the Conference Semifinals against Pittsburgh, when he was so-so at best.

And Halak won’t carry any momentum coming out of Sochi following his Swiss-cheese performance for Slovakia. 

Elliott has his demons, too.

Blues fans won’t forget Dustin Penner’s goal in Game 6 against the Kings last season. He rifled a shot past Elliott from just inside the blue line with less than a second remaining in the second period, giving LA a 2-1 lead. It sent the Blues packing.

St. Louis led 2-0 in that series. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick had his shaky moments the first two games. But he was the clear difference over Elliott in LA winning four straight and bouncing the Note from the playoffs for the second straight season.

It’s the kind of goal Elliott can’t give up during the regular season, much less the Stanley Cup playoffs. The kind of goal that conjured up painful memories for Blues fans of Steve Yzerman’s double-overtime series clincher for Detroit in 1996.

Elliott has struggled managing rebounds at times. During cold streaks, he also won't aggressively challenge shooters. Those flaws get magnified in the postseason when crashing the net is paramount to success.

2. Make a trade

Buffalo’s Ryan Miller is the player linked to the Blues in trade chatter. Plus, he’s the only goalie rumored to be available that represents an obvious upgrade over the current tandem.

Miller’s aggressive style and excellent positioning match well with a Blues defense adept at blocking shots and clearing shooting lanes. And a change of scenery likely would rejuvenate him coming from the last-place Sabres.

Even though Miller’s 2.74 GAA is higher than Halak’s 2.26, consider the talent, or lack thereof, around him. He’s faced 406 more shots than Halak in the same amount of games.

St. Louis has the pieces to get a deal done. After spending years building through the draft, GM Doug Armstrong can afford to deal prospects or draft picks without altering the makeup of his roster. Bleacher Report's Dan Robaczewski addresses what it might take for the Blues to land Miller.

A free agent this offseason, Miller represents the risk of a short-term rental. But even at 33, he’s a franchise goaltender worthy of a long-term commitment.

3. Give Allen a shot

There's not much for Jake Allen to prove in the Minors. He’s got 22 wins, a .921 save percentage and a 2.19 GAA for the Chicago Wolves of the American Hockey League.

Allen has fared quite well for the Blues, going 9-4 in 15 starts last season with a 2.46 GAA. He looked sensational at times during stretches in February and March filling in for an injured Halak and struggling Elliott.

If the Blues don’t make a trade, chances are Allen would start next season anyway. Halak and Elliott are both free agents set to make more than St. Louis may be willing to pay with a prospect seemingly ready to contribute.

With 25 games remaining, it’s doubtful a veteran coach like Hitchcock would turn to Allen now unless compelled by injury. But that scenario can’t be ruled out given Halak’s recent history of late-season ailments.

Blues owner Tom Stillman operates with limited resources. Yet, he’s allowed Armstrong to lock up cornerstone free agents and aggressively pursue trade options.

It’s been over a decade since the Blues have possessed the right pieces for Stanley Cup contention. Management must decide if now is the time to go all in or ride the hand they’re dealt.

If any of the many struggling and rebuilding teams in the NHL are looking for a road map to success, they should take a close look at the St. Louis Blues.

As of January 12, the Blues were considered by Vegas Insider as one of the likeliest teams in the league to claim the coveted Stanley Cup. With 11-2 odds to win it all, that ties them with both the Pittsburgh Penguins and defending champion Chicago Blackhawks.

Early in the new year when Olympic rosters were finalized, the Blues found themselves with 10 representatives—tied for tops in the league with the Detroit Red Wings and Blackhawks.

Their first half of the season was the best in franchise history with 63 points over 41 games, they are scoring at the second-highest rate per game while allowing the third-fewest goals against and they've got the kind of depth most teams dream of.

How they got to this point in their quest for their first Stanley Cup is impressive: a combination of great drafting and patient tutoring, shrewd and timely trades, and putting the right people in place to bring it all together.

A Young Core of Scorers

Not a single member of their top six in scoring so far this season has celebrated his 30th birthday. When teams are able to draft well and develop their players as a group that goes through its growing pains together, good things happen.

The Blues are getting offense from the young and old(er), and their top scoring forwards are just entering their prime if you believe they peak between 26 and 30.

Having three lines that can score on any given shift, as opposed to a top-heavy team that relies one one or two trios for all of its offense, is what seems to separate the Blues from the competition. It also bodes well for their future when five of their top 12 scorers are 25 and under.

Even their veterans aren't expected to be affected anytime soon by the inevitable depreciation of speed and reaction time that comes with age.

Demonstrating Serious Draft Skills

Outside of the top five players in any given NHL draft, it's a bit of a crapshoot. You have to make your first-rounders count to be successful, building strength and developing from within.

The Blues have done an incredible job over the last decade of finding key pieces in higher rounds as well as a couple of stable contributors with later picks. Their current roster boasts 10 players they drafted and developed themselves.

Of these 10 homegrown talents, only defenseman Alex Pietrangelo was considered a can't-miss kid. He was taken in a banner year for blueliners and could be the best of the bunch as far as an overall skill set—even over Erik Karlsson.

Netting not one but two kids in the first round of the 2010 draft who are both making a massive impact this season—Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko—has given the Blues the kind of youthful depth other teams envy.

Schwartz is turning out to be one of the surprise stories of the season with his impressive point production (15 goals and 32 points in 42 games complemented by his league-leading plus-24 rating (tied with Chris Kunitz and Matt Niskanen).

While Tarasenko is more of a pure playmaker and skill player, Schwartz is the kind of diminutive but plucky winger who plays much bigger than his 5'10" frame and with more determination than many of his much bigger or more skilled opponents.

The Blues have drafted a nice mix of those types. Like Schwartz, David Backes and T.J. Oshie are gritty but talented. Patrik Berglund is more dynamic as a playmaker, like Tarasenko.

They've also discovered leaders on the back end in veterans Barret Jackman and Roman Polak. Their regular enforcer, Ryan Reaves, has the ability to contribute on the fourth line in an energy role.

Blues executives have also done a nice job of identifying which former draft picks they should deal away either because of a lack of fit with the identity the team wants to maintain or the need to bring in players with other dimensions.

Wheeling and Dealing Their Way to the Top

Picked up with Carlo Colaiacovo on Nov. 24, 2008, Alexander Steen has been a steadily improving player with two 20-goal seasons and an increasingly well-rounded, confident game. Steen's incredible start to the year, sniping a career-high 24 goals in his first 35 games this season, has paced the Blues.

Other trades have contributed to the Blues' success—even in the absence of Steen, who is dealing with a concussion.

Goaltender Jaroslav Halak is as big a piece as any. When the Blues picked him up from the Montreal Canadiens in June of 2010—just after a heroic performance by the Slovakian netminder in the Stanley Cup playoffs—it was with the expectations that he would be the answer to their woes between the pipes and was young enough to grow along with the talented core general manager Doug Armstrong was assembling.

Injuries have been about the only thing to have stood in the 28-year-old's way, but when he's healthy, he's a dynamic puck-stopper and is once again showing the league his talent.

One of the most underrated deals of Armstrong's tenure may be the move to get Vladimir Sobotka from the Boston Bruins in return for Boston product David Warsofsky in June of 2010. Sobotka is currently filling in for David Backes at center on the top line, but has become one of the integral pieces in the team's top nine forward ranks thanks to his versatility and an increasingly noticeable scoring touch.

Sending their first overall pick from 2006 to the Colorado Avalanche for a pair of players and a swap of future picks caught many by surprise.

Talented defenseman Erik Johnson is doing well for the Avalanche these days, but the return has formed part of the stellar nucleus in St. Louis with defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart. Stewart's toughness and physical game wear down opponents and Shattenkirk is as skilled as Johnson, which makes him a valuable second-pairing blueliner behind Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester.

Bouwmeester cost the Blues prospect Mark Cundari, goaltender Reto Berra and a first-round pick, but they knew their cupboards were full of young players who will be good for a long time and that a piece or two could give them a serious crack at the Cup.

Thanks, Coach

The franchise is a contender today because of some great work by former president of hockey operations John Davidson, who left the team a year ago in much better shape than he found it in 2006 after a league-worst 21-46-15 record.

As strong as the drafts have been since then, and as savvy as they've been with their trades and signings, the best move may have been to hire Ken Hitchcock to bring everything together on the ice.

Following up its awful 2010-11 season with a 6-7 start, the team was flailing with Davis Payne at the helm. Davidson and Armstrong turned to Hitchcock for help.

Under Hitchcock's guidance, the team quickly turned things around. Using a relentless forecheck and physical game full of pace and puck possession, the Blues racked up a 43-15-11 record in the 69 games Hitchcock coached, earning him the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year.

The Blues were among the lockout's best teams a year ago and are looking like potential champions again this season, proving to have found the winning formula.

Now all they have to do is prove it in the playoffs.

Team USA's 2014 Olympic team was announced Wednesday after the Winter Classic, and the final roster features three players from the St. Louis Blues. The stars and stripes will have Blues captain David Backes, forward T.J. Oshie and defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk all on their side when the games begin Feb. 7 in Sochi.

Backes was a member of the U.S. team in 2010 when it won the silver medal after losing to Canada in overtime in the gold medal game. Oshie was at the USA Summer Orientation Camp that year, but he was not chosen for the team. Meanwhile, this is Shattenkirk's first time wearing the USA jersey at the professional level, as he has had some past experienced playing for the U.S. at the junior level.

These three Blues are not the only players that we expect to see in Sochi for the Olympics.

Off the ice, head coach Ken Hitchcock will be an assistant coach for Canada while general manager Doug Armstrong will be part of Canada's management group.

This will be the fourth time that Hitchcock will be a part of Canada's Olympic team. 

"For me, we had such a good time in 2010 with a great staff, I really enjoyed working with Mike (Babcock) and Lindy (Ruff) and all the management people," Hitchcock said via Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "When they asked me if I'd join up, it was kind of a no-brainer, to be honest. I really learned a lot working with these guys. It's just such a great competition, plus learning experience, it's really a no-brainer."

The Blues could see as many as 11 players in the Olympics though, which is certainly a much better number then the three Blues players who played in the 2010 Olympic Games.

Defensemen Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester could find their way onto Canada's roster. Alex Steen and Patrik Berglund were invited to Sweden's camp back in July, while Vladimir Tarasenko was invited to Russia's camp as well.

The Blues could also see Jaroslav Halak represent Slovakia, while Roman Polak and Vladimir Sobotka hope to represent the Czech Republic.

The Olympic break will be a great time off for many of the Blues' players. It will give them all a nice mental and physical break from the grueling season, but for the players mentioned above, it will be a great opportunity to represent their country on a global stage.

"It's something that I've always dreamed of," Shattenkirk said via Andrew Allsman of KMOV.com. "It's going to be a great experience. Anytime you can wear that USA jersey, it's always been something special to me and this has always been my ultimate goal."

In extending Alexander Steen for three years, did the St. Louis Blues shrewdly lock down an elite sniper, or get themselves stuck with a $5.8 million 25-goal winger? Though currently second to Alexander Ovechkin in league goal scoring, Steen's previous eight-season best is just 24 goals. Will the Blues get value out of this deal?

Answering that question is a lot tougher than it appears. Not only does it require projecting his future performance, but it also requires assigning a dollar value to that prediction. That feat would be difficult enough for one of the league's most consistent players, let alone for a player whose scoring spiked completely out of the blue (no pun intended).

Steen's scoring will obviously regress over the next three years, but not necessarily all the way down to 25 goals per season. Based on similar players throughout history, and even his own past, we can estimate just how much we can expect his scoring to slide.

Even after projecting his scoring, assigning a price tag is a controversial matter, even in the emotionless world of analytics. Even if we set aside bigger picture concerns like grit, chemistry, leadership and all other intangibles, and confine ourselves to only his recordable on-ice contributions, there's still far too much that goes into a player's performance than can be summarized in a single number.

That being said, we do know enough about measuring value to come up with a rough estimate of what Steen will be worth, and it's surprising just how close that comes to the deal they agreed to. But first let's take a step back and project his scoring.

Gazing Into the Crystal Ball

The first step in figuring out if Steen can live up to his extension is projecting how good he will be over the next three seasons. This is no easy task even for a consistent player, and could even prove impossible for someone like Steen. Is he just riding a hot streak, or have his true talents only surfaced recently?

While there's a strong sense among hockey fans that whatever is happening today will last forever, history does tend to repeat itself. Sudden and dramatic increases in scoring don't usually level out; they tend to drop back closer to previous levels. Even a look at Steen's own past demonstrates this fact.

The graph that follows is the rolling 34-game average through Steen's entire career, which flows from early in his career on the left to the current day on the right. Goals are in blue and assists are in red.

It really isn't a question of whether or not Steen's goal scoring will regress, but by how much.

Steen had two previous goal-scoring spikes, the most significant occurring near the end of the 2009-10 season, his first full year in St. Louis. Specifically there was one 34-game sprint where he scored 18 goals.

While that's not quite the same pace as today, it was an equally dramatic increase from his recent past. It was also right before his last contract extension, so give Steen credit for his excellent timing.

After the 2010 spike, his goal scoring didn't remain at that exact same level, but it didn't slide all the way back either. His scoring only regressed about half of the way back to previous levels.

Will Steen's Scoring Regress?

Just because Steen's goal scoring slid halfway down last time doesn't mean it will happen again. It could regress all the way back down, not at all or anywhere in between.  

To determine if a player is going to regress or not, context is everything. There are several underlying causes that can lead to dramatically increased scoring. A partial list would include the following:

1. New teams and/or linemates,
2. Increases in playing time (especially on the power play),
3. More advantageous playing conditions, in opposing zones and/or against weaker opponents,
4. Improved play and, of course,
5. Blind luck.

To predict his future scoring, we need to know which of these applies in Steen's case. 

According to the table below, his playing conditions haven't significantly changed recently. He's still playing with David Backes and T.J. Oshie, and for years he has been ranked in the top three among the team's forwards in average ice time. As for his playing conditions, they've actually gotten more difficult.

Steen's scoring can't be explained by better linemates, more ice time or an easier assignment. It has most likely been a combination of a legitimate increase in offensive ability and a hot streak caused by random chance. But in what proportion?

How Legitimate is Steen's Scoring Increase?

One way to tell if a player has experienced a legitimate increase in his offensive production is to look at the number of shots he's taking per minute and the number of shots he's setting up per minute (for playmaking).

It makes sense that a player whose shots and setup passes increase at the same rate as his goals and assists is more likely to keep scoring at the higher rate. There's also ample historical evidence that this is true.

In Steen's case, however, the increase in goal scoring was not accompanied by an increase in shots. The following offensive profile chart, which maps a player's shots per 60 minutes against his (estimated) setup passes per 60 minutes, shows that Steen is taking roughly the same number of shots that he always has. The only real difference is in his playmaking, which isn't on trial here.

Steen's higher rate of goal scoring isn't based on an increase in the number of shots he's taking, but rather on the percentage of them that go in. His shooting percentage is currently 20.7 percent, over double his previous career average of 9.1 percent.

While this is a relatively rare scenario, there are players who once skated in these same tracks, and seeing what ultimately happened to them can provide insight into what will happen to Steen.

Among those who take a comparable number of shots, only three forwards have experienced such a dramatic increase that far into their careers. According to Hockey Reference, Rod Gilbert went from 9.9 percent to 18.1 percent at age 30, Vic Hadfield went from 9.2 percent to 20.7 percent at age 31 and Jacques Richard went from 9.5 percent to 19.9 percent at age 28.

How did these three players do over the next three seasons? Their combined average shooting percentage over the next three seasons was 14.5 percent. That's a regression of about half the way back down to their previous career average, which was exactly what we saw last time Steen's scoring spiked.

Take a look at their career scoring using the Hockey Reference links provided with their names. After their big years, Gilbert's goal scoring went from high 20s to three straight 36-goal seasons, Hadfield went from a 20-25 goal scorer to a 30-goal man and even Richard's scoring increased modestly.

What does all this mean for Steen? If history can be relied upon, both his own and those who are similar, then Steen could become a 35-goal scorer for the duration of his new deal. But is that worth $5.8 million?

What's a Goal Worth?

Having projected Steen's scoring level over the next three seasons, it remains to assign a dollar value to those goals. This can be a highly contentious thing to attempt, even within the analytics community. Even when restricting an analysis to what can be counted on a scoresheet, there are still too many factors to a player's game to summarize in a single number.

Accepting that the question can be answered definitively nor precisely, we can proceed to craft a rough estimate. The starting point is hockey's 3-1-1 rule, which states that every three goals gets you one point in the standings and costs one million dollars.

Of course, that doesn't mean that a 35-goal scorer is worth $11.7 million. A team isn't paying for those 35 goals, it's paying for the portion of those goals that's over and above what an AHL-level replacement would score instead. Especially one who played the same minutes and on the top line alongside Backes and Oshie.

The fact that Steen does more than score goals also needs to be accounted for. He also sets them up, and he prevents opponents from scoring with sound defensive play at both even strength and on the penalty kill.

That's where a statistic like goals versus threshold (GVT) comes in handy. It's a high-level estimate of all of a player's contributions in terms of the number of goals he has helped score or prevent, relative to what would have been achieved by a replacement-level player.

Prior to this season, Steen helped score or prevent around 12 goals per 82-game season more than a replacement-level player, according to Hockey Prospectus. That means he was previously worth about $4.5 million. Given that his cap hit is just under $3.4 million, he was due for a raise no matter what.

As for this year, Steen's current GVT is already around 12.0, highest in the NHL among skaters (by a long shot). Even if he were to regress to that same extent as we suspect, the remaining increase would easily still be worth an extra $1.3 million.

Now that's just a look at what a player like Steen is worth, not what he actually costs in the open market. Certain types of players are undervalued, but others are overpriced, making it better to let them go and to use the cap space differently.

What would it cost to replace Steen? Assuming Steen truly becomes a 35-goal man who continues to play against top competition and kill penalties, then there are only five other players who have matched that description at least once over the past few seasons. 

Amazingly the average combined cap hit of Jeff Carter, Milan Michalek, Loui Eriksson, Patrick Marleau and Eric Staal is almost exactly $5.8 million. It really is quite stunning to arrive at the exact same conclusion as Blues management.

Nailed It

Steen will not contend for the Maurice Richard trophy, and everyone knows it. That being said, there are strong indications that he won't fall all the way back to his previous scoring levels. He will most likely become a 35-goal scorer who plays sound defensive hockey against top opponents, kills penalties and has an amazing upside.

Not only is that type of player worth $5.8 million, but that's also what players of that description cost in the open market. Obviously St. Louis is taking somewhat of a risk, but that's something NHL teams need to do in order to succeed. And if the Blues are going to make this kind of investment, then it might as well be on Steen.

All advanced statistics are via writer's own original research unless otherwise noted. 

Rob Vollman is author of Rob Vollman's Hockey Abstract, co-author of the annual Hockey Prospectus guides and a featured ESPN Insider writer. @robvollmanNHL. 

Alexander Steen has been quietly playing sound and proficient hockey for a very talent-laden St. Louis Blues squad the last couple of seasons.

This season, he’s decided to turn the dial up to 11.

In 24 games this year, Steen has scored 20 goals, good for the league lead—a lock he shares with some guy named Ovechkin.

He’s also been scoring at an incredibly efficient rate. His shooting percentage currently stands at 25.3 percent. That means for every four shots that Steen takes, one of them goes in.

That held true for Steen in Wednesday night's game against Colorado—Steen had four shots on net, one of them went in.

That’s a tough pace to keep up with, and it’s even tougher to argue that Steen won’t eventually cool off and settle into a more standard pace. After all, Steen has never been more than a career 40-50 point player, and he’s never scored more than 24 goals in a single NHL season.

But while it may be unlikely that Steen finishes the season scoring at a goal-per-game rate, the fact that he is scoring is no accident.

Steen’s wrist shot has been other-worldly this year. He’s always had a bullet of a shot—a trait Blues head coach Ken Hitchcock acknowledges by playing him at point man on the power play—but his cannon has been wildly accurate the last 24 games.

Not only that, but his opponents haven’t seemed to pick up on the Steen sensation. In far too many offensive situations, Steen has been given so much time and space he could make a sandwich out on the ice. Many times, this is a result of smart play by his linemates and defenseman, but if opposing defenders are looking to stifle Steen, they are going to have to start using a more proactive approach.

He scored goal No. 20 Wednesday night on the power play against the Colorado Avalanche. He snuck in back door on the Avs' penalty-killing unit, received a beautiful cross-ice feed from captain David Backes and utilized the most casual of snap shots for a tap-in goal.

His ability to get inside positioning on opposing defenders has made him lethal. If you’re looking to build up a scouting report on the 29-year-old former first-round draft pick, that’s where you need to start.

Much of Steen’s luck this year has been just that—luck. If you were to analyze exactly what Steen is doing differently this year than he’s done every other year, you won’t get very far. The St. Louis Blues are a very imposing team, and Steen is as willing as any of his teammates to crash the net, and that has resulted in a plethora of scoring opportunities. Steen has been a benefactor of some very smart plays. And luck.

Yes, it is unlikely that Alex Steen continues scoring at such a torrid pace. Like all great players, his luck will eventually turn and he will find some statistical normalcy in his scoring. But the fact that Steen has been scoring—and scoring a lot—is not a sham, and until opposing teams start to dissect the hockey smarts that Steen and his teammates bring to the table, don't expect Steen to stop.

The St. Louis Blues were projected to be very good this year. Hockey pundits cognizant and simulated alike expected big things from this fully ripened squad.

So far, they are worth the hype.

The Blues are currently placed at third in the Western Conference standings, two points behind the first-place Anaheim Ducks despite having four games in hand. They are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and have outscored their opponents 35-21 in that span.

They trail the Chicago Blackhawks by a single point in the Central Division standings but also have two games in hand on them. After the team's dominant 6-1 dispatching of the Dallas Stars Saturday, the Blues are 7-0-1 against their divisional competition this season.

So what are the Blues doing right?

At the most rudimentary level, the Blues have been adept at doing what is required by all teams if they expect to win—they score a lot and prevent their competition from scoring a lot against them.

Their 3.46 goals-per-game average ranks a slim second to the Chicago Blackhawks' 3.50, and their defense sports a sparkling 2.23 goals-against average. Despite inconsistent play and evident struggles in the crease, starting goaltender Jaroslav Halak still sports a 2.34 goals-against average. That says a lot, given his save percentage is at a flat .900.

That is likely due to the fact that the Blues average just 25.7 shots against per game—fifth lowest in the league.

Defense has been a positive aspect of the Blues' game for several years, but where the team has really grown is in its offensive prowess.

The power play has been sensational, and the Blues currently lead the league with a 25.6 power-play percentage.

Each player on their top forward line is scoring at or near a point-per-game pace. Their offense has been led quite loudly by the MVP-caliber play of Alexander Steen, who is challenging the likes of Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin for the NHL scoring title.

The support is there as well. Outside of their top line, the Blues have eight other players with double-digit point totals. Derek Roy has resurfaced from his year as a journeyman quite nicely and has found a niche as the Blues' second-line center.

One stat that really sticks out for the Blues so far this season is their number of giveaways. In 22 games played, the team has combined for just 80 giveaways. That's 50 less than the next best team at protecting possession of the puck (the Colorado Avalanche have 130).

The Blues have very effectively combined grittiness with puck possession. They are rarely a flashy team, but they have big bodies that can crash the net. They pin opposing teams down in their own zones for long stretches, wear them down and reek havoc in front of the net until everyone realizes that the puck they're all looking for has already crossed the goal line.

They are incredibly deep to boot. Their top three forward lines can effectively contribute on both ends of the ice, and their third line of Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Sobotka and Vladimir Tarasenko could easily be playing top-six minutes for most other NHL teams.

At the back end, defensemen Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester are quickly transforming into one of the best duos in hockey. They are both active defensemen with high hockey IQs, and their chemistry has been seamless since the Blues acquired Bouwmeester from the Calgary Flames last April.

With the recent return of Carlo Colaiacovo to the roster, the Blues now have a plethora of options to use at the back end. The signing, of course, was a result of Jordan Leopold's hand surgery, which will put him out of action for a bit, but the Blues still have a mobile defensive unit that is now loaded with experience.

The Blues will incur bumps down the road. They aren't the perfect NHL team, but they've learned well the brand of hockey they must play in order to succeed. Until their competition finds a way to humble them, chances are, the Blues will keep winning.

In one of the season's biggest surprises, Alexander Steen currently leads the NHL with 16 goals and 24 points after 17 games. The 29-year-old Blue is on pace for 77 goals and 116 points, despite previous single-season career highs of just 24 goals and 51 points. It's fair to say that Steen will eventually cool off, but by how much, and how soon?

The bottom line is that Steen's scoring has been fueled by a red-hot shooting percentage, one that rarely persists without some kind of explanation. These kinds of stretches do occur from time to time, even for Steen, who scored 20 points in 17 games back in 2010, a season where he finished with 48 points in 67 games.

This analysis will involve a deeper dive into the numbers, first to break down his game and figure out how he's generating all this offence, and then to search his career to see what he's been capable of in the past. That information can produce a best-case scenario, as well as more realistic expectations, which will help estimate at what point this season he'll slide back the league's scoring leaders.

Players can have big jumps in their scoring for a handful of different reasons, so the first step is determining which of them apply in Steen's situation.

How Is Steen Doing it?

In the case of established players, normally, a big jump in scoring is caused by more ice-time (especially on the power play), better linemates, preferential usage in the offensive zone and against weaker opponents, and/or some shooting luck. Which one is the case here?

Steen is averaging an extra minute and 43 seconds per game this season, with almost all of that boost being at even-strength. He has remained on a line with David Backes, but because of Andy McDonald's retirement, they've been joined by T.J. Oshie this year. Suffice it to say that while Backes and Oshie are skilled players, they don't exactly have Crosby-like reputations for boosting scoring.

Daniel and Henrik Sedin famously increased their scoring years ago when their playing conditions changed dramatically, and they got to play almost exclusively in the offensive zone and against more secondary competition. A quick look at St. Louis' player usage chart reveals that Ken Hitchcock isn't tilting the ice in a similar fashion and if anything is assigning Steen's line the toughest minutes possible.

Steen's shooting rate hasn't changed either. His 60 shots (or 3.5 shots per game) isn't unusual for him at all. Last year, he averaged 3.2 shots per game, which is about what you'd expect when you factor in the change in ice-time.

The big difference is how many of those shots have gone in. Last year, it was eight goals in 129 shots; this year, it's 16 goals in 60 shots. That's twice as many goals in half as many shots. His 26.7 shooting percentage is up from 6.2 percent last year, his 9.1 percent career average and even his 12.7 percent single-season career high. How is he doing this, is it just some great puck luck?

While 26.7 percent is his career high over a 17-game stretch, he has been close before. In fact, this is the fifth time in his career that Steen has topped 20 percent over a 17 game stretch, with his previous record being 22.5 percent.

Steen's Career Best Stretches

Players go on hot and cold stretches all the time, and they're very hard to predict. Steen, for example, has scored anywhere from two to 20 points over any particular 17-game stretch, while averaging about nine or ten.

Obviously, the hot stretches that occur at the start of a season get a lot more attention, but a closer examination of the previous times Steen has gone on a tear like this will hopefully help predict how long this one can last.

Here is a list of Alexander Steen's best 17-game scoring stretches. While it is his career best, his 24 points recently is not completely out of place. He scored 20 points in a 17-game stretch in 2010, the year he finished with 48 points in 67 games.

In terms of goals, his 16 up to this point in the season blows away his old 17-game record of 10 goals, which he achieved on two separate occasions. In contrast, there was one slump where he had no goals in 36 shots over 17 games and two stretches where he managed just two points.

In terms of assists, his record is 13, which he has also done on two separate occasions. In terms of plus/minus, he actually achieved a plus-14 over one particular stretch. He also had a stretch where he was minus-16.

The team can have a huge impact on these hot and cold stretches, too. For example, right now, Steen is in on 39.3 percent of St. Louis' scoring, but that's not even his highest. This past March, he had a 17-game stretch where he was in on 41.0 percent of the team's scoring, even though that was only 16 points. He also topped 35 percent on at least two other occasions.

The take away point here is that players have highs and lows, and this level of scoring isn't completely unprecedented, even for Steen. 

Best-Case Scenario

How long can Alexander Steen keep this up? Right now, he's scoring at a rate 20 percent higher than his hottest career stretch. If we're generous and assume that he has gotten 20 percent better, or that there is something about his playing conditions and/or the system in St. Louis that will legitimately and permanently boost his scoring by 20 percent, then we can use that to build a best-case scenario.

For example, Steen had 22 points over his best 20 game stretch, so an extra 20 percent would be 26 points in 20 games. That might be enough to stay even with Sidney Crosby for the league lead.

Given these base case numbers, Steen might remain among the scoring leaders at the 35 game mark but would fall to the bottom of the top ten after that.

Last year, Pavel Datsyuk was 10th in scoring after a 48-game season with 49 points in 47 games, so 54 points would still have Steen at least as high as 10th. In 2011-12, the last full 82-game season, Patrik Elias was tenth in scoring with 78 points, so 80 points would likely have Steen at the bottom of the top ten this year too.

Of course, all of this makes the awfully flattering assumption that Steen can score at a rate 20 percent higher than his previous career best and for much longer stretches of time. While 80 points is possible, it is likely too high an estimate.

What's Realistic for Steen?

The more realistic expectation is for Steen to score closer to this career rate the rest of the way. That would either be 36 points or 43 points, if we retain the 20 percent boost. Add in his hot start, and that would give Steen between 60 and 67 points and cause him to slide off the top ten leaderboard around the trade deadline.

This may come as a shock to those hockey fans with a strong tendency to believe that whatever is currently happening will continue to happen, and whatever happened repeatedly in the past will never happen again.

That being said, players do legitimately increase their scoring sometimes, even as dramatically as Steen. But absent clear explanations as to why a player is suddenly scoring on three times as many of his shots as he normally does, it doesn't tend to last.

Closing Thoughts

Players go on hot and cold stretches all the time, and 24 points for Steen isn't crazy unusual. It's only a few points more than a stretch he had in 2010, a season in which he finished with 48 points in 67 games. The only reason it's getting so much attention is because it occurred from the start of the season.

If Steen resumes his previous career scoring pace, or even slightly above it, he may finish with 60-67 points this year. The best-case scenario where his newfound scoring touch is more permanent, where he continues to play at a pace well above his career best, results in a finish with up to 80 points and possibly a finish in the league's top ten.

All advanced statistics are via writer's own original research unless otherwise noted. 

Rob Vollman is author of Rob Vollman's Hockey Abstract, co-author of the annual Hockey Prospectus guides and a featured ESPN Insider writer. @robvollmanNHL.

When the NHL announced its realignment plan heading into the 2013-14 NHL season, one of the least popular shifts was taking the Detroit Red Wings out of the Central Division and Western Conference.

With that move, the league all but killed one of the best rivalries in sports, which featured the Wings and the Chicago Blackhawks.

Fans should fear not, though, as a new rivalry between the 'Hawks and St. Louis Blues will more than make up the difference.

These two teams are one brutal open-ice hit away from becoming one of the biggest rivalries around and the fact that the road to the Stanley Cup will likely lead through one of these two cities only adds more fuel to the fire.

Breaking Down What Makes the Blues Contenders

St. Louis, like 28 other teams in the NHL, is gunning for the Chicago Blackhawks. Unlike most of the other teams in the league, it actually has the weapons to take the defending champions down.

This is a squad that is capable of rolling four forward lines straight through and doesn't have to go fishing for a matchup.

Every time the Blues hit the ice, they play a heavy brand of hockey. They are structured a lot like the Boston Bruins in the way that they've mixed talent and size. Anyone who watched St. Louis and the Los Angeles Kings during the 2013 postseason knows that this is a group that gives absolutely no quarter.

If the team has an advantage over Chicago, it's in the physicality department.

Players like David Backes lead with their size while small but talented forwards such as Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko are capable of putting up outstanding numbers despite playing bottom-six roles.

And if there's a team in the NHL that can match the defensive depth of the 'Hawks, it's the Blues. St. Louis ices arguably the best blue line in the league and rarely gives up easy goals.

Jaroslav Halak is in the way if you manage to get by the defense, and scoring on him hasn't been easy early on this season.

Chicago and the Lost Art of Defending Titles

With two trips to the Stanley Cup Final in the last four seasons, you won't find a core group that has played more hockey recently than that of the 'Hawks.

Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook have all played close to an extra season over the last four years, so coming out of the gate sluggishly in 2013-14 isn't too surprising.

Tired and beat up, Chicago is still better than 20 or 25 teams in the NHL.

The 'Hawks play a talent-based, puck-possession system and feature some of the most ruthless, big-game players in the league. Kane has emerged as one of the most outstanding playoff performers in recent memory while Toews can beat you in a variety of ways and might be the best all-around player in the sport.

More so than any team of late, this version of the Blackhawks has a chance to successfully defend their Stanley Cup title. Another banner would put them in dynasty territory, but they'll have at least one heavyweight challenger to defeat on the way to the Final.

A Midwest Clash Brewing

Viewing the West as only a two-horse race would be silly. Regardless of whether or not these two teams clash in the playoffs or not, a rivalry is in the works. The Bruins and Red Wings have played twice so far, and there certainly isn't any love lost between those two fanbases already.

More than 700 miles separate those two rivals. However, fewer than 300 stand between St. Louis and Chicago.

The Midwest has a way of cycling people through its various cities. Whether people move because of college, jobs or relationships, there's a lot of transplants scattered through the middle of the country.

You'll see plenty of St. Louis-raised Blues fans in Chicago, and you'll see a ton of Chicago-raised 'Hawks fans in St. Louis. This creates a natural tension between the two groups that will extend itself to the players out on the ice.

The Blues have already taken steps to prevent 'Hawks fans from attending games in St. Louis. They instituted a ticket-sales policy this season in an attempt to prevent Chicago fans from invading home games for the Blues. Much to the chagrin of the brass and local fans, it doesn't appear to have worked.

That should boil the blood of even the most casual St. Louis fan.

A Showdown of Styles

St. Louis and Chicago are on freight trains headed straight for each other for more than geographical reasons. The two teams play drastically different styles, setting up a classic size vs. speed rivalry.

When the Blackhawks and Red Wings met out on the ice, it was typically a clash of talented teams trying to keep the puck away from each other,

While it made for some fun hockey, rarely did the contests get too heated. There was never blood on the ice and scrums rarely resulted in more than roughing penalties and cross-checks.

The Blues bring way too much sandpaper and grit to the ice to not get under the skin of the Blackhawks. Chicago proved in the playoffs last season that it wouldn't be pushed around, though, and merely trying to out-crash the 'Hawks won't result in wins.

It's only a matter of time before there is blood on the ice between these two upper-echelon teams. Once that happens, it'll get nasty.

Then there's the added treat of watching Ken Hitchcock and Joel Quenneville try to out-coach each other.

This brewing rivalry has all the ingredients needed to be a classic.

St. Louis and Chicago will meet for the second time this season on October 17, and will add another chapter to this budding clash of the titans.