Nevada Wolf Pack Football

Now that the combine is over, NFL watchers are busy compiling their mock drafts while the teams are busy trying to figure out which players will best serve their needs and figure out what their strategy will be on draft day.

Although the media continues to focus primarily on Cam Newton, he may not be the best QB available. His Heisman and National Championship notwithstanding, Newton did not post the best numbers at the combine.

Peeling beneath the hype and the media glare and looking carefully at the data, I think there is another senior QB who is the stealth candidate of choice: Nevada's Colin Kaepernick. Here's why.

His career stats speak for themselves. No one in NCAA history can touch them. 10,000 yards passing and 4,000 yards rushing. No player even comes close.

Brad Smith held the record with 4,000+ yards rushing and 8,799 yards passing. Kaepernick absolutely destroyed that record, and not by a little bit, mind you. He bested it by over 1,200 passing yards. I think it is safe to say that record is in his hands for a very long time. In fact, it may be a record that will never be broken. That's because he started nearly every game in his four years at Nevada. To break that record will require four injury free years as a starter with huge production every year.

And here's another mind boggling stat: Kaepernick is the only player in NCAA history to pass for over 2,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards in three seasons. 

Then consider this one: He tied the all time NCAA record for rushing TDs by a QB at 59. Had he held onto the ball in Hawaii this season, he would have set a new record at 60. Mind you, he surpassed one Tim Tebow for that record.

But none of this explains fully why he is the best QB in the draft. His performance at the Senior Bowl and the combine do.

Reports from the Senior Bowl practice week were that he was very impressive, and may have had the best week in practice of any of the QBs. At the combine, he posted the second fastest 40 yard time among the QBs and was much faster than Newton. He also demonstrated exceptional speed, agility, arm strength and touch. He clearly has the strongest arm of any QB in the draft and threw a 59 MPH football.

But here's what really caught my attention. At the Sports Science testing, he reportedly had off the charts athleticism and spectacular reaction time and accuracy. In this very high tech environment, Kaepernick reportedly identified his target and threw the ball in the vicinity of 64 hundredths of a second with 90 percent accuracy.

To put that in perspective, Peyton Manning didn't come close to that when he was a senior. Much has been said about his arm motion, but the data is clear. Despite his motion, he finds his target and throws a rocket propelled grenade with deadly accuracy in a fraction of a second.

So what we are seeing with Kaepernick is a QB who re-wrote the record books and is the best dual threat in college football history.

But, he is also faster and has a stronger arm than Newton. At 6'6" and 233 pounds, he is also a very big boy. Add to the mix his spotless record, academic performance, innate intelligence and impeccable character along with what Hall of Fame Coach Chris Ault said was "the most ferocious competitor" he had ever seen, and I think Colin Kaepernick is the best available talent in the draft. Certainly, he will need some fine tuning. But, he is very eager, humble and coachable.

Some have him going in second or third round. I would take him in the first round. The team that takes him will have gotten the best QB in the draft. I would not be one bit surprised if Colin Kaepernick is the QB we will be watching on Sundays in a few years, preferably in San Francisco!

Nothing does revisionist history or illusion quite like college football's Senior Bowl.

In the span of one week that is filled with a handful of practices and one meaningless game, the Senior Bowl can make four years of actual play on the field in meaningful games vanish into thin air and can turn a middling college quarterback like former University of Nevada-Reno's Colin Kaepernick into the next great thing.

However, to paraphrase Cutter from The Prestige, the Senior Bowl's trick in making an ordinary player's talent level look extraordinary by making his college past disappear is only the first two parts of any great magic trick. Since making something disappear is not enough, eventually you have to bring it back, which brings us to the third act, or the prestige, of this trick.

For this particular illusion, the prestige of Kaepernick involves reminding people of the real Kaepernick before they think that the hype and buzz surrounding his abilities is an accurate representation of him as a quarterback.

Last season for the Nevada Wolfpack, Kaepernick completed 64.9 percent of his passes, gained 8.4 yards per pass attempt, gained 13.0 yards per completion and threw 21 touchdown passes (5.8 touchdown percentage) to eight interceptions (2.2 interception percentage).

If Kaepernick had put up numbers like that consistently across his four years at Nevada, then he would be a bonafide NFL quarterback prospect worthy of being drafted, but in his other three seasons, he never came close to having a season like he did his senior year.

In his freshman season, Kaepernick was Nevada's primary quarterback for nine games, games in which he either attempted the most passes or threw for the most passing yards for the Wolfpack. During those nine games, Kaepernick completed 54.4 percent of his passes, gained nine yards per pass attempt and threw 19 touchdowns (7.9 touchdown percentage) to two interceptions (.8 interception percentage).

The reason for Kaepernick's extremely high yards per pass attempt average was due to the 16.5 yards he averaged per completion, but because of his low completion percentage, he was a boom or bust quarterback his freshman year, thereby reducing his passing efficiency.

For his sophomore season, Kaepernick played in 13 games as Nevada's primary quarterback and completed 54.3 percent of his passes, gained 7.4 yards per pass attempt and threw 22 touchdowns (5.7 touchdown percentage) to seven interceptions (1.8 interception percentage).

Even though Kaepernick was throwing shorter passes his sophomore season with 13.7 yards per completion, he could still not improve upon his completion percentage from his freshman season.

While playing in 13 games as Nevada's primary quarterback in his junior season, Kaepernick completed 58.9 percent of his passes, gained 7.3 yards per attempt and threw 20 touchdowns (7.1 touchdown percentage) to six interceptions (2.1 interception percentage).

It took Kaepernick's yards per completion dropping to 12.4, meaning he was throwing shorter and easier to complete passes, before his completion percentage could increase.

As you can see, Kaepernick increased his completion percentage, somewhat artificially, each year from his sophomore season to his junior season and his junior season to his senior campaign, but he started out with such a low completion percentage that even with the improvements, he can still be described as nothing more than a quarterback with average accuracy at best.

For Kaepernick's career as Nevada's primary quarterback, he completed 58.3 percent of his 1,265 passes, gained 8.0 yards per pass attempt, gained 13.7 yards per completion and threw 82 touchdowns (6.5 touchdown percentage) to 23 interceptions (1.8 interception percentage).

Although not exactly a dangerous passer in college, Kaepernick was very dangerous as a runner, averaging 6.9 yards per rush. As always, remember that sacks in college count against a quarterback's rushing totals. He was also great at keeping his interceptions to a minimum; it is too bad he could not keep his incomplete passes to the same minimum.

Although Kaepernick's entire career was unexceptional, NFL teams might fall victim to the proximity effect, where the most recently presented items are remembered best and overrate what Kaepernick did in his senior season, which was his best overall season in college.

However, they should understand what an outlier of a season that was for Kaepernick.

In an effort to find out which season of Kaepernick's four years in college was most representative of his true talent level in completion percentage, I separated each season and compared it to the other three seasons.

There were only two seasons that were statistically significantly different from the other three. The first season was his freshman year, where his completion percentage was 54.4 percent. It barely qualified as being statistically significantly different from his other three seasons, where he combined to complete 59.3 percent of his passes.

The other season was his senior one, the one in which his completion percentage was 64.9 percent. There was absolutely no doubt that it was statistically significantly different from his other seasons, where he combined to complete just 55.7 percent of his passes.

Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Kaepernick would ever be able to complete 64.9 percent of his passes in the NFL over the course of his career.

It was Kaepernick's junior season that painted the most accurate portrait of his accuracy, or lack thereof. Kaepernick's junior completion percentage of 58.9 percent was almost identical to his 58.2 completion percentage in his other three seasons.

That is the quarterback an NFL team will be getting if one chooses to draft Kaepernick, and it is a quarterback who does not possess the kind of accuracy that will translate to success in the NFL.

All NFL teams should be wary of the small sample size that one week provides in judging in whom to invest millions. The best method of judging a player's pro potential is to look at his entire college career, because that will allow a team to have the most information possible about a player.

When one does that for Kaepernick, one discovers that the real Kaepernick is an inaccurate passer who is destined to struggle in the NFL and whose best season in college was a statistical outlier and unreliable in predicting his future going forward.

The University of Nevada Wolf Pack football team enjoyed its best season ever in 2010-2011 finishing 12-1 with victories over Cal, Boise State and Boston College. As if a share of the WAC title, a bowl championship and a stunning come-from-behind upset over then-third-ranked Boise State weren't enough, Wolf Pack fans enjoyed even more good news this week.

Several seniors showcased their skills at the East-West Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl. These games are important because they provide an opportunity for invited players to display to NFL coaches and scouts what they can do. Solid performances will boost a player's chances of being drafted.

Three Nevada players appeared in the Shrine Game: running back Vai Taua, tight end Virgil Green and defensive end Dontay Moch. Although the West squad lost the game 25-8, the Nevada contingent did well. Taua had two rushes for 18 yards and caught two passes for 12 more. Green caught two passes for 18 yards, while Moch had two tackles.

In the Senior Bowl, quarterback Colin Kaepernick was 4-for-9 in the air for 53 yards with one interception. He also rushed four times for 12 yards. The North squad lost the game 24-10.

However, the buzz during the week's practices was very positive about Kaepernick. He was said to have the strongest arm of all the quarterbacks and was extremely accurate with his passing. He had very impressive practices and likely secured his status as a second or third-round draft pick. Rumors are swirling that he may be drafted by the Vikings.

But Kaepernick will not be the only Nevada player to be drafted. Almost certainly, Moch will be drafted as well. If they do well at the NFL combine, don't be surprised if Taua and Green are drafted also. Finally, although he didn't play in either game, Nevada's huge offensive lineman, John Bender may get drafted too.

Nevada's best season is still not over. With a little luck, five players could end of up being drafted.

According to reports coming from NFL Network's Mike Mayock, Collin Kaepernick is sprinting up draft boards due to his play at the Senior Bowl. When asked what it is like to watch this young gun-slinger throw, Mayock said, "It's like watching Nolan Ryan."

Looks like bad news for Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett and even Blaine Gabbert.

Jay Cutler was a stand out during his Senior bowl as was Josh Freeman, which led to their draft stock skyrocketing. Both men seem to be doing just fine in the NFL.

The same could be said for Kaepernick.

In case his name does not ring a bell, he led the Nevada Wolfpack to an upset over then undefeated Boise State. Now is it coming back to you?

Kaepernick flew under the radar due to the lack of TV time his conference receives outside of the Broncos. His 2010 stats were pretty incredible. He finished his senior season with a 64.9 completion percentage to go along with 21 TDs and only eight INTs. Let's not forget that this boy can move outside of the pocket as well. He had 20 rushing TDs on the season as well.

In his career, he finished with 83 total touchdowns and 10,098 total yards. Wow. How was this man not even mentioned before the Senior Bowl?

Even though his competition might have been lacking, he has proven to be an effective, NFL-caliber QB. Over each of his four years with Nevada, Kaepernick has improved his completion percentage, while limiting his mistakes. Even though his stats took a hit his junior season, he came back on a mission in 2010. The same can't be said for Jake Locker, his biggest competition at the Senior Bowl.

Kaepernick could draw comparisons to Michael Vick because of his extreme athleticism. His ability to make plays with his feet is second-to-none. In 2010, he eclipsed 100-yards rushing five times. Not to mention he scored more than two TDs on the ground six times.

Now that he has an audience, Kaepernick is really showcasing his abilities and scouts are salivating. He doesn't come with an injury history or character concerns that Ryan Mallett is showing and outperformed Jack Locker this season.

With wheels and a cannon, NFL coaches could be looking at their franchise QB.

Don't be surprised if Collin Kaepernick is posing for a picture with Rodger Goodell early on draft day.

A television audience estimated at 80 million watched Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick break his own all-time NCAA record as the Wolf Pack defeated Boston College 20-13 in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl on January 9 in San Francisco.

It may not have been a BCS bowl, but for the nearly 41,000 fans who packed AT&T Park, site of the 2010 World Series, it had all the excitement of one.

The City by the Bay was overrun with fans, as some 15,000 attended the pep rally in Union Square and filled the pubs and eateries near the stadium.

The entire event was a spectacular success for its sponsor, Kraft Foods and the city itself. The turnout by the Nevada faithful far exceeded expectations.

The game itself was a defensive struggle, as both teams contained each other's offense. Nevada was held to its lowest rushing total of the season.

Kaepernick was 20-of-33 through the air for 192 yards and rushed for another 22, bringing his career total to a staggering 10,098 yards passing and 4,112 yards rushing. He previously held the all-time NCAA record for the combination of passing and rushing yards as the only player to have passed for over 9,000 and rush for 4,000.

Having broken through the 10,000 passing yard mark widens the distance between him and second place by some 1,500 passing yards and virtually guarantees that his record will stand for a very long time. In fact, this record may never be broken.

Kaepernick joins Brad Smith and Vince Young as the only players in history to pass for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. He had already set a record as the only player in history to pass for over 2,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 in three seasons.

With 82 passing TDs, 59 rushing TDs and one receiving TD to his credit, Kaepernick has accounted for 142 career TDs and 852 points. He will remain tied with Eric Crouch for the all-time NCAA record for rushing TDs by a QB at 59.

The win against Boston College capped the best season in Nevada history, as the Wolf Pack finished 13-1. The season was highlighted by a blowout over then-No. 23 Cal and the come-from-behind victory over No. 3 Boise State. Kaepernick finished his career at Nevada having led the team to a share of the WAC championship while snapping a four-game bowl losing streak. Nevada finished the season ranked No. 11 in the final AP poll.

Hoisted by fellow players and fans as the victory trophy was presented, Kaepernick has forever endeared himself with the Nevada faithful as the best player ever for the Wolf Pack.

Sure to be drafted, his future in the NFL remains uncertain. As the most productive dual threat in NCAA history, it remains to be seen if that can translate into success at the next level. Time alone will tell.

It is safe to say, however, that there are a lot of college coaches and scouts who are still wondering how they overlooked him. The University of Nevada was the only school to have recruited him, and his impact will benefit Nevada for many years to come.

Matt Rivers takes Boston College (+7.5) vs. Nevada in college football betting.

Reasoning: Nobody loves Colin Kaepernick and this Nevada offense more than I do and nobody thinks that this Boston College offense is as blah as I do. But with that said the Eagles won their last five games and with a month plus to prepare for Chris Ault’s tricky offense should be just fine.

Last year the Wolfpack were an even bigger favorite against SMU in the bowl game and June Jones had his team more than ready in the easy outright. I guess Nevada has learned a thing or two from that beating but you see all the time how these different offenses lose a lot when there is a lot of time to prepare for it. Georgia Tech every season looks awful this time of the year and once again did against Air Force. Meanwhile the Falcons did very little with their triple option attack against the Yellow Jackets. Navy is another example as they were very mediocre in the defeat against San Diego State.

Football spread betting experts know that Boston College is going to have to slow this thing down because if it turns into a shootout they will have little chance. But that is exactly what the Eagles have down for the last month of the season as they have won those five straight with scores of 16-10, 23-13, 21-16, 17-13 and 16-7. The boys from Chestnut Hill literally have the best run defense in the nation and that certainly is a good thing against Kaepernick, Tua and the ‘Pack.

Nobody can fully stop the Nevada pistol offense, I get that. But BC will do enough to slow it down and the running game led by Montel Harris and Andre Williams will wreak a little havoc as well keeping the College in the game.

You have to love what Mark Herzlich has been able to do coming back from cancer and in the end today I will back him and this fairly live dog.

The pick: Boston College (+7.5) from Matt Rivers, Senior Fellow at OffshoreInsiders.com

For More Information

Yup that’s right, Matt Rivers nailed the 400,000* Seahawks as much as anybody can nail anything and that was only the second-highest rated play in my arsenal. I also came through with the underdog 200,000* Jets as well. Now to the big, big gun and a 500,000* from Arrowhead between the Ravens and Chiefs. This is the biggest and most powerful play that I will release, period. Bonus 200,000* Green Bay-Philadelphia as I take care of business one more time. 2-0, no doubt about it! Click now to purchase

Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick deserves to be a Heisman candidate. He has stats that no one else in the history of college football can match. He is arguably the best dual-threat QB in NCAA history. If you doubt that, consider this.

Colin Kaepernick today became the first player in history to pass for 9,000 yards and rush for over 4,000 yards. No one else in 112 years of college football is in the 9,000/4,000 club.

Need more evidence? Kaepernick is also the only player in NCAA history to pass for over 2,000 and rush for 1,000 in three seasons. In 112 years, no one else has even come close.

Need still more proof? Kaepernick long ago surpassed Tim Tebow's rushing yard mark by a QB. Today he surpassed Tebow's rushing TD mark and tied Eric Crouch for the all-time NCAA record at 59. With a bowl game yet to be played, there is a good chance he will score at least one more. Kaepernick should own three all-time NCAA records before he is through.

But to be the best dual threat ever, one must also be as adept with one's arm as with one's legs. Kaepernick has passed for 9,747 yards and 81 TDs to go with his 59 rushing TDs and one receiving score. With 141 TDs to his credit, he has only suffered 23 interceptions in four years for an average of 5.75 per season. Boise State's Kellen Moore, a legitimate Heisman candidate known for throwing very few interceptions, has 18 picks in three years for an average of six.

Kaepernick already owns a slew of WAC records, including his most recent. Today, he broke Ian Johnson's rushing TD mark, a record formerly held by LaDainian Tomlinson.

So how come a guy who already owns two all-time NCAA records and will likely soon have three isn't on the list? Colin Kaepernick has stats that make him the most productive dual threat in history and has surpassed two other Heisman winners who were also dual threats. He is one of the best running backs in the country and he isn't even a running back! He is also one of the best QBs in the country with a completion rate of 64.7 percent.

If that isn't enough to make the candidate list, what is?

Oh, maybe this will help. He will soon be honored with a display in the College Football Hall of Fame for his accomplishment last season as part of the first trio in history to rush for 1,000 yards on the same team (Kaepernick, Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott).

The Heisman criteria are: best all-around player and person, irrespective of conference. It has nothing to do with winning championships (though Nevada won the WAC title today), win-loss record or bowl record.

So can someone explain to me why with stats like these, Colin Kaepernick should not be a candidate?