Sun Belt Basketball

In 1998, a team from the Horizon League (Valparaiso) led by an experienced senior guard (Bryce Drew) made a Cinderella run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 13 seed.

Ten years later, another team from the Horizon League (Butler) led by an experienced senior guard (AJ Graves) will attempt to repeat history with a trip to the Sweet 16 and beyond.

True, there are major differences between these two teams; Valpo came into the tournament as a No. 13 seed, virtually unknown nationally. In contrast, over the past decade, Butler has been a known commodity, making the Big Dance six times—and last season, the Bulldogs gave eventual national champion Florida a handful in the Sweet 16.

Also, Butler comes into this tournament with a No. 7 seed, which makes the Bulldogs a favorite in their first-round contest against South Alabama. In many ways, Butler doesn't fit the mold of a classic Cinderella story.

But that doesn't mean that Butler can't make a splash in this year's tourney.

When identifying a team that could make a surprise run in the NCAA Tournament, there are three factors to consider:

1. Tournament experience

2. Consistent guard play

3. Solid coaching

The Bulldogs definitely have a stranglehold on the first two attributes, and the jury is still out on the third. But, if you look at the makeup of this team, this is a squad that will be a tough out for anybody.

Butler starts four seniors; its fifth starter, freshman forward Matt Howard, is perhaps its most valuable piece. Howard gives the Bulldogs an inside presence that they have not had in previous years. It almost gives this team a Gonzaga-type feel as a unit that can dump the ball down low and shoot it from the outside.

Graves is a senior guard who has been a starter for the majority of his career at Butler. He has been a solid leader and playmaker that has really stepped his game up the past couple of seasons. He is the type of player who will help a team have success in a tournament.

Point guard Mike Green is a complete player and arguably the most important piece of the puzzle. Not only is he the leading scorer at 14.9 points per game, he is also Butler's leading rebounder (6.6 RPG) and leading assist man (5.1 APG). This guy has been somewhat overshadowed, at least nationally, by Graves. This season, however, he has broken out. During one stretch this season, Green reached double digits in scoring in 16 consecutive games.

Outside of that stellar guard play, there are a couple of solid forwards. Howard has been a big addition in the low post, as he shoots 60 percent from the floor and 77.6 percent from the free-throw line. He is an athletic big man who can run the floor well and rebound with bigger guys.

Another senior, Pete Campbell, is a streaky shooter who has converted five or more 3-pointers on seven different occasions this season. Other role players—Julian Betko, Willie Veasley, and Drew Streicher—help this team to carve out a defensive identity that have allowed it to frustrate teams all season long.

First-year coach Brad Stevens may not have head coaching experience in the tournament, but he has coached under two men—Todd Lickliter (Iowa) and Thad Matta (Ohio State)—who have left Butler for Big Ten coaching jobs after a great deal of success in March.

He has gotten solid training and has guided this team to a 29-3 record, with some impressive wins coming against the likes of Florida State, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, and Ohio State, among others.

This is a complete team with experience and an ability to attack opponents in different ways, as well as the ability to defend effectively in the half court.

In other words, this is a dangerous bunch, no matter who they face off against.

In the first round, Butler should be able to hold off South Alabama, who lost its last game at home to a mediocre Middle Tennessee team.

Next up will come Tennessee, who can score a ton of points but will struggle to stop the penetration and outside shooting of the Bulldogs.

After that, a team like Louisville will give Butler problems, but the Cardinals are easily frustrated by tough defenses. That gives the Bulldogs the edge.

I think Butler's ride will come to a halt against a better North Carolina team in the Elite Eight. But, regardless of when it ends, the ride will be long, and the country will be forced to take notice.

In 1998, Bryce Drew hit a magical shot to propel Valparaiso past fourth-seeded Ole Miss in the first round.

Graves and the Butler Bulldogs are looking for some similar magic that will lead to a long run in March.

Just a score or two: University of Akron 65, Florida State 60. Southern Illinois 69, Oklahoma State 53. Creighton 74, URI 73. Syracuse roughing up Robert Morris, 87-81?

I know its just the NIT, but do the BCS & "Big State U" teams only give their best in the "Big Dance"? It makes me sick to hear the sanctimonious posturing and the condescending attitude of the Network "talking heads" and "former" Coaches trumpet the notion that the A-10, Missouri Valley, MAC, WCC, and others are "nice little leagues" made up of schools in the flyover states, that at times really play well and are able to defeat the "heavyweights" of the Big Ten, Big East, Pac-10, ACC, SEC, and Big XII on rare occasions when one of their "Powers" has a "down year", a "bad break," or a player scandal.

Most of the successful "Mid-Majors" will play "anybody, anywhere, anytime" and offer deserving opponents a home-and-home series to be fair about it. Until the last decade or so most of their players were not as skilled, athletic, or jumbo sized as the "factory" schools. Their student/athletes did however, stay around to gain experience, meld into the college experience, and graduate. Coaches were valued and judged by their knowledge of the game, teaching ability, and graduation rate rather than their wins & losses.

The two "P's" population and parity combined with the increase from 32 to 64 teams in the NCAA D-I basketball tourney made it possible for smaller schools to game fame and entice players. and the term "Mid-Majors came about. The exposure that Gonzaga University gained when reaching the Elite Eight and George Mason going to the Final Four, for example, are just two of the more well-known achievements of the mids.

The play of the Butlers, Davidsons, Southern Illinois, Creightons, Valpo's, St. Joes, and others have shown sports fans that "David slaying Goliath" happens far more than one suspects. Gonzaga is in the "dance" for the tenth straight year. How many of the BCS schools can make that claim?

So sit back and enjoy watching the greatest two weeks in sports, as all sixty-four teams start out with a clean slate and teams like, Butler, Drake, Gonzaga, St, Joes, San Diego, Davidson and others proudly carry the "Mid-Major" banner to more glory. Success and luv to the Schools I had to leave out for lack of space, poor memory, or individual preference.

I have a confession...

I am a college basketball addict.

My condition is so bad in fact that I watched every single Big 12, Big East, ACC, and Big Ten conference game this year.

Now, I don't need a doctor or anyone else to tell me that I'm mentally insane for doing this, but this year I got the Madness and I got it bad...

Unlike other years, it seems as if I have a pretty strong opinion on almost all of the teams that made the field.  There are going to be a lot of awesome match-ups ahead in these next couple weeks.  It certainly should shape up to be one heck of a March Madness...

So...let's take a look at the potential Cinderella's.  They're the funnest to look at and keep everyone intrigued, so I'll give a small rundown of the teams that I think have that certain "gusto" to advance to the Sweet Round of Sixteen.

PS...I consider Cinderella's at least a 6th seed or higher...

So without further adue, I bring to you:

#7 BUTLER

So, I already pretty much broke down the Bulldogs in my one of my previous articles (Part 1), so it might be better to look there. The Bulldogs are back again after going to the Sweet Sixteen last year by eventually being uprouted by last years National Champs, the Florida Gators.  Butler has one sweet frontcourt spearheaded by G Mike Green.  Four of the starters are seniors and have been in this type of situation before.  They have shown that they can beat teams from power conferences (Michigan, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Florida State) and it has earned them a lowly 7th seed.  They should be able to breeze by South Alabama and most likely be matched against Tennessee in Round Two.  If we get that matchup, Butler has the potential to pull the upset.

#6 USC

Most people forget that USC was a Sweet Sixteen contender last year.  Many people were predicting that a Kevin Durant led Texas team would shake up the brackets last year...until USC destroyed them in the Second Round.   This year, USC played one tough nonconference schedule and only lost to this years #1 seeds Kansas and Memphis by four points.  This is a team that can stick around until the end of the game with the chance to win it.  Everyone is calling the first-round matchup with K-State the Beasley vs. Mayo game, but USC is a lot more than just O.J. Mayo...unfortunately for Kansas State, Michael Beasley is the only consistent threat for the Wildcats.  USC would most likely face Wisconsin in the Second Round.   They'd face a considerably different playing style, but they more than have the arsenal and the talent to overcome them if they can contain their post players.

#7 MARQUETTE

In all of those hours that I spent in front of my television, one team really stood out to me.  The Golden Eagles have arguably some of the best guard combinations that I have seen.  James, McNeal, and Matthews all have the ability to hit the three, but can be quite streaky at times.   It all depends on the Marquette that is going to show up to the tournament.  If they can get a decent showing from Lazar Hayward inside, they'll be able to easily route Kentucky and have a real shot at a probable Stanford in Round Two.  In that regard, Marquette's guardplay destroys Stanford's almost seven-fold...but when dealing with Stanford, containing the inside game will be what is important.

Those teams should provide for some awesome March Madness excitement.  It should be interesting to see where all of these teams end up because we can speculate all day, but most of our brackets are going to be messed up by the end of the day anyway.  These are simply the teams that jumped out at me during Conference Tournament weekend. 

The staff of OffshoreInsiders.com takes a look at the Monday night conference championships. 

Elon-Davidson

It’s the Southern Conference title on the line. The Wildcats have won the last two championship games and have the longest winning streak in the nation at 21 games. Furthermore, they have won 35 straight conference games by a combined 17.8 points per game.

Elon is playing their best basketball of the year at the right time. In addition to already upsetting the No. 2  seed Chattanooga, they crushed Charleston by 14 and Furman by 15. It’s their longest winning streak of the year.

Elon is the lowest seed to make it to the conference finals since 1988. As a result, they are playing their fourth game in four days of the tournament. Davidson because of a bye is playing just their third game.

William & Mary-George Mason

Bill and Mary knocked off the top seed VCU on a last-second basket last night. They met just once this season with the Patriots winning by six. Pressure or motivation, you handicap it? William & Mary must win to make the Big Dance for the first time in their history.

Rider-Siena

It’s tough to be more evenly matched than these two teams. The teams split the regular season conference title and split two meetings with each winning on the road. The Broncos played without their starting back court yesterday and Ryan Thompson and Justin Robinson were both out. Thompson is second team all-conference. Because he has a concussion suffered two days ago, it is unlikely he will play tonight.

Will Siena have anything left in the tank after erasing a 17-point second half deficit yesterday?

Middle Tennessee State-South Alabama

According to Cy McCormick head of the on-line betting syndicate MasterLockLine.com, “While USA is known for having the best back court in the Sun Belt, MTSU cannot match up against South Alabama’s frontcourt,” Cy said, referring to 6-8 Ronald Douglas and 6-7 DeAndre Coleman.

South Alabama is the tournament host.

Gonzaga-San Diego

Remember that this game is on San Diego’s home court. The Zags are a stunning 32-12, all-time straight up in the conference tournament. Gonzaga has won eight of the last nine conference titles, but their only loss was to San Diego.  As far as motivation, there is no doubt that the Zags are in the NCAA Tournament win or lose.

Get the spread winners in these games at OffshoreInsiders.com