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Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois: Spread, Line and More for GoDaddy.com Bowl

Jan 3, 2012

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Northern Illinois Huskies will do battle on the gridiron in the GoDaddy.com Bowl, and it should be a great second-to-last game of the postseason. 

The final bowl game before the BCS National Championship, these two schools will be viewed by many for the first time ever, and they're not going to disappoint. 

Red Wolves head coach Hugh Freeze left to coach Ole Miss, which could be a big factor in how Arkansas State performs. 

Both schools are coming into this postseason matchup playing very well, with the Huskies on an eight-game win streak and the Red Wolves on a nine-game win streak. 

It's been an astonishing season for both schools, as the Huskies won the Mid-American Conference Championship for the first time since 1983 and the Red Wolves won the Sun Belt Conference for the first time since 1986. 

Two red hot teams going head-to-head is just the kind of game fans need to tune into right before the BCS title game. 

With that said, let's get to some specifics of this postseason showdown. 

When: Sunday, Jan. 8 at 9:00 p.m. ET 

Where: Ladd Pebbles Stadium, Mobile, AL

Watch: ESPN, ESPN3.com 

Key Storyline 

Will Arkansas State win without Hugh Freeze? 

The new head coach for Mississippi helped the Red Wolves find great success this year, but without him things could be difficult. 

Assistant coach David Gunn will lead the way for Arkansas State, and they should still be able to put up a good fight against Northern Illinois. The Red Wolves will most likely miss Freeze in the high pressure situations, which means the players need to step their game up. 


Spread 

According to vegasinsider.com, the Red Wolves are favored at -1, which means it's basically a pick game.

Expect a lot of offense in this game, as both teams excel at scoring. The Red Wolves have the stronger defense, so I'd pick them to cover. 

Over/Under 

According to vegasinsider.com, the over/under is set at 63, and I like it to go over. The Huskies averaged 38 points per game this year and the Red Wolves averaged 33. 

Despite not having their head coach, the Red Wolves should still play well. Each team has great offensive firepower, which means there will definitely be some quick scores and big plays in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. 

Who Might Not Play for Arkansas State? 

*According to USA Today

No injuries to report. 

Who Might Not Play for Northern Illinois? 

*According to USA Today

DL Ron Newcomb (leg): Questionable

DL Frank Boenzi (undisclosed): Questionable 

WR Anthony Johnson (suspension): Out

DE Sean Progar (suspension): Out 

What They're Saying

David Gunn, the Red Wolves interim coach, told reporters that the Huskies are a solid team. 

Northern Illinois is obviously a very good football team. You can't say enough about their offense and they are very solid defensively. The have more of a bend but don't break attitude, and they aren't going to beat themselves. They are a well-coached and experienced football team and its going to be a great challenge that we look forward to.

It's a tough task for Gunn, having to step in at the tail end of the season. However, he's had a lot of time to prepare, and his players should feel no different about this game just because he's coaching. 

Arkansas State's approach to this game needs to be about winning, and the players mindset must stay this way even though their head coach is no longer with them. 

Huskies head coach Dave Doeren told reporters how great and important it is to get to play in a bowl game. 

Anytime you can extend your season, you create an opportunity for additional practices for your football team, which is huge in the development of our young players. It is like having an additional spring ball. This is also a reward for our fans, boosters, players and families who have the opportunity to travel to a bowl site and enjoy all the events and activities surrounding the game.

This is the first season as head coach for Doeren, and he's done an excellent job of preparing the Huskies to win games this year. 

With the extra time, Northern Illinois has been scheming on how to take down the Red Wolves, which will help make this a great game. 

Arkansas State Player to Watch 

Red Wolves' quarterback Ryan Aplin has thrown for 3,235 yards this season, but he did have 18 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. 

He'll have to be smart with the ball and make sure he connects early and often with top receiver Dwayne Frampton, who reeled in 90 receptions for over 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. 

Northern Illinois Player to Watch 

Chandler Harnish does it all for the Huskies, leading the team in passing and rushing. He's rushed for over 100 yards five times this season, and in a few of those games he also threw close to, if not over, 300 yards. 

Harnish is what makes Northern Illinois' offense click, and he'll need to be on his A-game if the Huskies hope to win the GoDaddy.com Bowl. 

Key Matchup 

Arkansas State's defense has to find a way to shut down Harnish. The Hukies QB does it all, throwing for over 2,900 yards and rushing for 1,300. 

Harnish scored a total of 37 touchdowns on the year, and if the Red Wolves find a way to limit his production, they'll easily win this game. 

Prediction 

Despite losing their coach, the Red Wolves will still be highly competitive. Offense will be in full swing in the GoDaddy.com Bowl, so expect a high scoring affair. 

In the end, I like the Red Wolves to get the victory because they'll make better defensive plays in the clutch. The Huskies will depend on Harnish too much, and it will cost them a close one. 

Arkansas State 38, Northern Illinois 35 

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Gus Malzahn: Former Auburn OC Ready for Next Step with Arkansas State

Dec 14, 2011

Gus Malzahn has been an assistant coach for a while now.

Now it's his time to shine.

Malzahn, who was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the Auburn Tigers last season when they won the championship behind Cam Newton, has reportedly agreed to be head coach of Arkansas State, per ESPN.

Malzahn, who also was the offensive coordinator and receivers coach with in-state rival Arkansas in 2006, has more than paid his dues. Although this will be his first stint as a head coach, he's widely regarded as a good coach in general, and that figures to make Red Wolves fans happy.

As an OC, Auburn liked Malzahn so much that they paid him $1.3 million per year starting in 2009. In 2010, he was named top college assistant coach in the country.

Under Hugh Freeze, who has now left for Ole Miss, Arkansas State went 10-2 this season, scoring 33.5 points per game, which ranked them 28th in the nation. They also ranked 17th in passing yards per game. The hope is that under Malzahn, the Red Wolves can have an even more explosive offense.

Arkansas State also has a good defense, which should set Malzahn up nicely. They allowed just 19.3 points per game, ranking 15th in the country.

There will be a lot of expectations for Malzahn at Arkansas State after the work Freeze did, but he has experience in the all-powerful SEC, and that could prove huge in the Sun Belt Conference, which is widely regarded as one of the worst conferences in the nation.

In Malzahn, the Red Wolves have not only gotten a top coach, they've gotten a coach who has had enough time as an assistant to take control of a team.

Malzahn will be missed at Auburn, but you can bet Arkansas State will welcome him with open arms.

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Gus Malzahn Reportedly Leaves Auburn for Arkansas State

Dec 13, 2011

The loss of Gus Malzahn was a foregone conclusion, but that hardly makes his departure any easier for Auburn fans to stomach. 

One of the best assistant coaches in the business was going to be ripped from the Tigers sidelines at some point. It seems as though that time is now as reports are coming in that he will be the next head coach of the Arkansas State Red Wolves. 

James Bryant of AStateNation tweeted the news on Tuesday evening. 

KATV News in Arkansas stated that the 2010 Broyles Award winner is currently making $1.3 million annually at Auburn. One would have assumed that the Red Wolves' contract would be significantly north of that figure. 

Malzahn is a native of the state, but is in high demand as one of the most coveted offensive minds in the game, and was courted heavily last year by Vanderbilt and Maryland. As it seems, he will be taking a hit to the wallet by getting a team of his own. 

The Birmingham News reports the deal with Arkansas State is for $850,000 a year. It seems that it is worth coaching closer to his home and having the reigns of his own team. 

There is no word yet as to whether Malzahn will travel to help coach the team as Auburn plays in the Chick-fil-A Bowl game against Virginia on New Year's Eve.

While Auburn has taken a hit on offense, you have to consider the turnover of seasoned starters on that side of the ball where the team suffered.

Malzahn is still considered one of the most prolific minds without a team of his own, and now Arkansas State has him. There is much to celebrate when you are a Red Wolves supporter. For once, Auburn has lost out to a smaller program.

 

Arkansas State Football: Hugh Freeze Deserves Coach of the Year Award

Nov 18, 2011

Author's Note: This is the fifth in a five-part series detailing coaches who deserve Coach of the Year Award consideration for the jobs they have done this season in turning around once-dismal programs. Part I can be found here. Part 2 can be found here. Part 3 can be found here. Part 4 can be found here.


The Arkansas State Red Wolves share the state of Arkansas with the Arkansas Razorbacks, a powerful program in the SEC.  The fact that both schools are located in Arkansas is pretty much the only similarity between the two programs.  The Razorbacks have a long history of football success, while the Red Wolves have never finished above .500.

Both of the past two seasons, A State has finished with a 4-8 record and was very much a cupcake that other teams scheduled in order to get an easy win.  Coach Steve Roberts' nine-year tenure as A State's head coach ended after last season, as he was fired and replaced by offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze.

Looks like that was a pretty good move for the Red Wolves, as the team is currently 8-2 and in sole possession of first place in the Sun Belt Conference.  Considering the Red Wolves usually are not anywhere close to winning the Sun Belt, Coach Freeze's first year is going pretty well, to put it mildly.

Last season, the nation was introduced to Coach Mike Haywood, then the head coach at Miami (OH), who took the RedHawks from double-digit losses the previous season to double-digit wins and a MAC title last season.  He was hailed as a coaching phenom and quickly become a hot commodity amongst much bigger programs searching for a new head coach.

Hugh Freeze has arguably done an even more impressive job this season than Haywood did last season.  After all, the RedHawks have had football success much more recently than A State, who hasn't had much success at the FBS level...ever.

To put it bluntly, prior to this season the Red Wolves simply had no idea how to win at the FBS level.  And they hadn't been all that good at the whole winning thing even when they played at the I-AA level, where they hadn't had anything resembling success since the mid 80's.

Not only has Coach Freeze taught the Arkansas State football team how to win, he has also made exceptional players out of unheralded recruits.  QB Ryan Aplin was a lightly-recruited two-star prospect coming out of high school.  The Red Wolves' starting quarterback now has a pretty good shot at winning Sun Belt MVP this season, as he leads the team in both passing and rushing and has 21 combined touchdowns.   

Barring a major collapse, Arkansas State will win the Sun Belt title this year.  For a program that has never had a winning season, that's a pretty big deal.  Coach Freeze will likely win the Sun Belt Coach of the Year award this season.

Honestly, for teaching a program how to be successful that literally had never been so before, Coach Hugh Freeze also deserves the Paul "Bear" Bryant national Coach of the Year award.

Sun Belt Football 2010 Preview: Ranking The Linebackers

Aug 31, 2010

This is the sixth in a series of articles ranking the Sun Belt Conference football teams unit-by-unit.

Several Sun Belt teams have to rebuild their linebacker groups, as all of the All-Sun Belt players at that position have moved on, except for a couple of honorable mentions. With the defensive lines at most schools also in heavy flux, linebackers will play a big part in which defenses excel or fail this season.

1. Arkansas State

Last season, injuries looked like they would derail A-State’s linebackers before the season even got underway. One year later, the additional experience makes this group easily the conference’s deepest.

Junior Demario Davis is at the beginning of the best-linebacker discussion, not only for ASU, but also for the entire Sun Belt. WalterFootball.com lists him as one of the top 10 outside linebacker prospects for the 2012 NFL Draft, and his versatility is a prime reason why.

Last season, Davis made 80 tackles, 8 of them for loss, along with three sacks from his strong side position. His greatest highlight, though, may have been his 75-yard interception return for a touchdown in the Red Wolves’ narrow loss to Iowa. He’s a former high school wide receiver who’s grown into a 6’3”, 231-pound frame.

Senior Javon McKinnon appears ready to take over a full-time position on the weak side. Injuries held him to nine games last year, of which he started five.

McKinnon made 53 tackles, but has taken criticism because he spent little time in the backfield (only one half tackle for loss) and did little to deter opponents’ passing games (no pass breakups). He’ll need to make bigger plays to avoid being the target of opponents who want to avoid Davis’s side of the field.

In the middle, the Wolves may begin with the relatively diminutive Nick Nelms. The 5’11”, 215-pound sophomore recorded 10 tackles and an interception in his reserve role last season.

Nelms’ competition appears to come from fellow sophomore Nathan Herrold. The much bigger Herrold (6’2”, 234) was performing well (41 tackles in nine games) in reserve roles all over the field before a knee injury derailed his season. He may resume that sort of versatile fill-in position while the coaches continue to assess his fitness.

Senior Darius Glover was preparing to begin last year as the strong side starter until an injury ended his season before it started. In 2008, Glover recorded 54 tackles and a sack. Now, he’ll settle in behind Davis unless coach Steve Roberts and his defensive staff can concoct a way to get both guys on the field together.

Senior Najel Byrd is expected to back up McKinnon on the weak side, but he’ll have to hold off JUCO transfer Michael Lombardo. Lombardo recorded 59 tackles, 12.5 for loss, and seven sacks for College of the Sequoias (Calif.). Byrd’s had four years in the program, but only five appearances in that time, recording two tackles.

2. Louisiana-Lafayette

Senior Grant Fleming will man the middle this season, sliding over from the strong side to fill the shoes of All-Sun Belt performer Antwyne Zanders. Fleming, a 6’4” 232-pounder, was second to Zanders with 89 tackles last season. With only one tackle for loss last year, Fleming’s not a threat to blow up backfields, but he should be a strong, steady signal-caller for the Cajuns’ defense.

On the weak side, senior Daylon McCoy begins his third season as a linebacker after shifting from strong safety. He was fifth on the team with 55 tackles in only nine games before suffering a knee injury. If he’s fully healthy, McCoy has the ability to disrupt backfields and improve on last year’s 4.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and team-high three quarterback hurries.

Junior Devon Lewis-Buchanan looks like he’s going to be penciled in on the strong side. Like McCoy, he was a defensive back, but in high school rather than college.

Despite being just short of 210 pounds, Buchanan made 24 tackles in a reserve role. With his build, it seems that he may be better suited for the weak side, where he would have more free space to roam.

Junior Richard Brooks made 10 tackles in only four games before suffering a knee injury. He’s a 6’2” 235-pounder with ability to make plays in the middle. There’s a possibility that if Brooks can impress the staff, he may prompt Fleming moving back to the strong side.

Redshirt freshmen Brandon Nash and Andrew Hebert are expected to play reserve roles on the outside. Nash is another undersized guided missile at 5’11” and 210 pounds. At 6’2”, Hebert has been said to have the look of a future all-conference performer.

While Nash nurses a shoulder injury that’s expected to keep him out of at least one game, junior Kyron Benoit has worked on the strong side in scrimmages. In a scrimmage a couple of weeks ago, Benoit was able to intercept a pass near the end zone for his team’s only takeaway.

3. Troy

Trojans coach Larry Blakeney has to replace two stars in his linebacking corps. Bear Woods and Boris Lee combined for 270 tackles last season alone, including 35 for loss. That kind of production will be difficult to replace, but the Trojans do have some veteran talent returning.

Junior Xavier Lamb will have to replace Lee’s production and leadership in the middle. He lacks prototype size, measuring only 5’9” and 220 pounds, but no one questions his toughness. Lamb recorded 36 tackles last season.

On the weak side, 235-pound junior Donnell Golden will have to fill Woods’ enormous shoes. Golden started twice last season and managed 37 tackles. His athleticism is off the page, as he holds Georgia state high school records in the 400-yard dash.

Senior Daniel Sheffield has the starting experience that Lamb and Golden lack. He started 12 of Troy’s 13 games last year, making 54 tackles. The 6’3” athlete has occasional difficulties in pass coverage, but isn’t prone to missing tackles.

Sophomore Kanorris Davis is expected to back up Sheffield after being a dangerous presence on special teams last season. Davis made 21 tackles last season and showed an ability to crush ball carriers, forcing three fumbles.

Another sophomore, 235-pound Jacoby Thomas, has shown the coaches an ability to wrap up runners in practice, but lacks game experience as part of the defense.

4. North Texas

The Mean Green defense had difficulties stopping anyone last season, but when stops were made, it was often the linebackers forced to make them. This group has some experienced athletes, and two heralded JUCO transfers are expected to add some depth.

Senior Craig Robertson was named to the preseason All-SBC team on the strength of his 107 tackles. He’s a rock on the outside, but needs to be a bit more disruptive in opponents’ backfields. He made only 1.5 sacks and three tackles for loss last season.

In the middle, senior A.J. Penson started last season’s second half after Tobe Nwigwe went down to injury. Penson’s recorded 51 tackles each of the last two seasons as a part-timer, so UNT fans are anxious to see what he can do as the man for a full season.

Beyond the 220-plus-pound Robertson and Penson, there’s not much size in the group, but athleticism is in great supply.

Jeremy Phillips is expected to hold down the left side after starting the last three games there. The sophomore runs like a defensive back, which is appropriate since he’s built like one (6’2”, 200). He made 37 tackles last season, and coaches see pass-rush potential in him as well.

Junior college transfers Brad Graham and Forlando Johnson are both in the area of six feet and 210 pounds, but they both have speed, versatility, and toughness to burn. They’re both considered talented enough to work anywhere, but on the first-week two-deep chart, they’re listed as the outside backups.

Sophomore Daniel Prior is listed as the second-stringer in the middle after recording seven tackles in 10 appearances last year.

The entire group needs to make more plays on the opponent’s side of the line of scrimmage. Penson and Robertson lead the returnees with three tackles for loss in 2009, and Robertson’s 1.5 sacks are the only ones made by this season’s group.

5. Florida Atlantic

The Owls have a new defensive coordinator in longtime linebackers coach Kurt Van Valkenburgh, and his former pupils may see some serious benefit from the change. Players have praised the defensive scheme for being “simplified,” but it remains to be seen how the players will execute the system.

Senior Michael Lockley would likely have topped 100 tackles if not for a late-season illness that cost him three starts. The 6’3” 245-pounder didn’t miss a game, but was limited late in the year. Despite his 7.5 tackles for loss, there’s a feeling that he could be even more disruptive in a more aggressive defense.

Malik Eugene returns on the strong side. Eugene recorded only 34 tackles despite starting 10 games last season. A 6’3”, 230-pound senior, Eugene needs to improve either in the pass rush or against the run before the Owls’ staff finds a better option.

Redshirt freshman Alex Pattee is set to be penciled in on the weak side. The 6’2”, 240-pound athlete was recruited by schools like Arizona State and Colorado, but the starting spot appears to validate his choice of FAU. He may contribute heavily to the team’s pass rush.

After the three well-built starters, sophomore Yourhighness Morgan brings the most impressive size to the field, measuring 6’3” and 245 pounds. He’s expected to back up Pattee.

Sophomore David Hinds was the man who relieved Lockley late in the season, and will once again caddy in the middle. He made 24 tackles in his spot work.

Redshirt freshman Toney Moore is listed as Eugene’s backup on the strong side. His 4.5-second 40-yard time should be a tremendous asset in FAU’s pass rush.

6. Western Kentucky

WKU’s making a transition from the 3-4 defense to the 4-3, and the move bodes well for the linebacker depth by definition. Two starters return, one changes position, and the reserves appear likely to contribute.

Senior MLB Thomas Majors was one of only seven Sun Belt players to record 100 tackles last season, but he came up lacking in big play potential. Only three tackles for loss and one interception are numbers that need to increase for Western to increase the number in the win column.

Chris Bullard made seven starts on the outside, and the 243-pound senior may benefit from letting the ends duel with offensive tackles this year. Bullard racked up 46 tackles, but no sacks. This phrase may recur later.

Senior Orlando Misaalefua started six games at strong safety last year after moving from linebacker. Now he’s back at the second level to make plays closer to the line. He racked up 48 tackles in only eight games, but no sacks.

Mike Gothard started eight games last season and is expected to fill in wherever needed. The 6’1”, 225-pound senior racked up 39 tackles, three for loss, three forced fumbles, but no sacks.  

Expectations may have been too high for 6’2”, 223-pound Tyran Golden in his freshman season. Predicted to be a frequent rotation player, Golden instead saw limited time in eight games. He recorded seven tackles, but no sacks.

Better results were attained by Golden’s classmate Josh Carter. The 6’1” 245-pounder will caddy for Thomas Majors and prepare to take over the middle next season. Last year, he rolled up 19 tackles, 3.5 for loss, and in an unheard-of development for a WKU linebacker, a sack.

7. Middle Tennessee State

MTSU may have lost more linebacker production than anyone outside of Troy. Danny Carmichael and Cam Robinson were both named second-team All-Sun Belt. Rick Stockstill’s staff, led by new coordinator Randall McCray, has to break in some inexperienced replacements.

Sophomore Justin Jones will have to fill Robinson’s shoes on the weak side. The 5’11” 210-pounder managed 26 tackles and three for loss in a solid freshman year. He can contribute in the pass rush, but may get swallowed up by big, agile blockers in the run game.

Darin Davis recorded 38 tackles in what was primarily a reserve role, except for one start against Troy. Now, the junior’s listed as the strong side starter. Like Jones, the 6’1”, 206-pound Davis will have to rely on his quickness to make plays.

The lone returning starter is former strong-side man Antwan Davis, who has the unenviable task of replacing Carmichael, the defense’s heart and soul last season, in the middle. In 10 starts, Davis racked up 52 tackles. Despite his 6’1”, 218-pound frame, Davis has proven that he can hold up against the run, and may need to provide several assists for the men on either side of him.

Redshirt freshman Stephen Roberts is the most heralded of the reserves, as several preseason analyses list him as a player likely to break out this year. He’s 6’3” and 229 pounds, and is listed as Antwan Davis’s backup in the middle.

Junior Gorby Loreus racked up 24 tackles last season, including five against Maryland. He was a prominent special teams performer, but now should be a factor at either outside LB spot.

Redshirt freshmen Craig Allen, David Jones, and Roderic Blunt are also listed on the early two-deep.

8. Florida International

FIU’s defense was the second-worst in America last season, and if there’s to be improvement, it will quite likely be led by their linebacking corps. Even though the group lost 100-tackle man Scott Bryant, they still have some experience. Health may be the biggest concern, especially if the line doesn’t improve.

Senior Toronto Smith showed ability to blow up backfields last season, turning out nine tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks among his 50 stops. If the 5’11” 225-pounder is turned loose on the pass rush, he could be a contender for All-SBC honors.

Junior Aaron Davis’s 6’1”, 245-pound frame is well-suited for the middle, and his production should be retained in the starting lineup somewhere. He finished third on the team with 59 tackles, also carding 7.5 stops for loss and 2.5 sacks.

Sophomore Winston Fraser may get the opportunity to beat Davis out for the middle position after missing half of last season. In those six games, he made 28 tackles, three for loss.

Sophomore Kenny Dillard appears likely to ascend into Bryant’s spot on the opposite side from Smith, a move based more on potential and athleticism than game production. In eight limited appearances last year, he made only two stops.

Another sophomore, Markeith Russell, produced a bit more with 17 tackles last season.

An additional option in the middle may be yet another sophomore, Larvez “Pooh Bear” Mars. Mars is attempting to recover from an injury that’s limited him in practice and may affect his previously unlimited range.

9. Louisiana-Monroe

ULM knew they had one loss coming, that being co-Defensive Player of the Year Cardia Jackson. Another one came as a bit more of a surprise when sophomore DaCorris Ford, a projected starter on the outside, was dismissed from the team for rules violations earlier this week. The Warhawks now face a highly rushed patch job before their September 11 opener against Arkansas.

To replace Jackson, junior Jason Edwards has been promoted from his special teams duties, where he recorded 19 tackles last season. The 5’11” 235-pounder has the coaches’ every confidence that he can be a reliable tackler inside.

Sophomore Cameron Blakes is listed as the replacement for Ford on the outside. Blakes is expected to be solid in pass coverage. He benched 365 pounds in high school with a 455-pound squat, so coaches aren’t terribly concerned about him breaking down in run support, either.

Theo Smith is the only returning starter left, and the 6’2”, 215-pound senior could be in position to post All-SBC-caliber numbers. Racing Jackson to the ballcarriers, he still managed 57 tackles, six for loss, and 3.5 sacks. He may be capable of making plays sideline to sideline, and if Blakes and Edwards fall down on the job, he may have to.

Senior Troy Giddens, once a top recruit for LSU, has taken a circuitous route to the final season of his collegiate career. He suffered a knee injury in 2008, quit the team after one game last year, and is now back to see his career out as part of the outside rotation.

Junior C.C. Carpenter is small for the inside (5’11”, 225) but scrappy. Like Edwards, his time has mostly been spent on special teams.

Scott Henry covers the MTSU Blue Raiders on his radio show 4 Quarters, airing on WMTS 88.3 FM in Murfreesboro and streaming live at wmts.org. Podcasts may be found at Starr*Rated.

You can also find the show on Facebook and follow Scott's ramblings on Twitter.

Nebraska Cornhuskers Season Preview: Week Two Vs. Arkansas St.

Jun 20, 2009

While looking at Arkansas State, I see a team that has the ability to make some plays, and make things difficult for its opponents on both sides of the ball. 

They will be coming to Lincoln with a proven quarterback in senior Corey Leonard, who in 2008 broke his own school record with 2,863 yards of total offense.  Leonard also tied his school record with 16 TD passes while amassing a personal best 2,347 yards passing.

Those numbers should increase this year considering that wide receivers Brandon Thompson, Jahbari McLennan, Jarriel Norman, and Taylor Clements are all returning in 2009 to form the core of a very experienced receiving corps for ASU. 

Running back Reggie Arnold also returns to add to his already 3,000 career rushing yards.

On defense the Red Wolves are very strong up front with a corps of defensive lineman returning, lead by Sun Belt Conference defensive player of the year Alex Carrington.

Some of the question marks for this team are.. 

1) Lack of depth at numerous key positions.  Numerous second team guys are sophomores or redshirt freshman that have yet to see any extended playing time.  A number of redshirt freshmen may get a chance to play in the offensive line, the defensive line, and at linebacker.

2) The offensive line may be the biggest question mark of all since Arkansas State will be looking to replace four lineman who saw regular playing time in 2008.

Regarding the head to head match up of Arkansas St vs. Nebraska:

I see some potential serious matchup problems for ASU because of their weakest link, the offensive line, going against the Husker's possible best unit on the team, the defensive line. 

This will impede the running game for the Red Wolves because they will struggle all day keeping Suh, Allen, Turner, Crick, and company out of the backfield, which will then free up the young, but speedy Nebraska linebackers to stop the run game.

When the Red Wolves do drop back to pass, I expect to see a mad rush to the quarterback, one that accounts for four or five sacks, numerous hurries, tipped balls, and probably an interception or two, considering the bodies that will be collapsing the pocket around Leonard.

All in all, I don't see the Red Wolves offense making many plays against a revved up Blackshirt unit, but I will still give them 14 points because there will invariably be some breakdowns in pass coverage.

On offense, I expect the Nebraska offensive line to take control of the game and look for Roy Helu to have a big game running the ball. 

Zac Lee will get his opportunities and will be looking downfield to get guys like Menelik Holt, Niles Paul, and Chris Brooks involved in the passing game before the big game down in Blacksburg, Va. the following week.

I expect a Husker victory to the tune of 45-14.

Arkansas State Vs. Alabama And a Look Back at Tennessee

Oct 27, 2008

The orange has been juiced. As more than one RollTideBama.com writer noted, the Tennessee game provided a great opportunity for the Crimson Tide to finally put together four quarters of quality football, and the team delivered.

The Trickle down prediction called for a 35-14 Bama victory, however as noted in later commentary, I had some question as to whether or not UT would be able to score 14 points against the Alabama defense. The latter comment proved prophetic, as the only points put up on the Alabama defense came by way of a gift field goal, and a late drive with some odd looking officiating.

As predicted, Chapman was able to do more than hold his own against the Volunteer offensive line, and the Vols did try to test the middle of the defensive line early. Chapman’s presence was noticeable, as the youngster repeatedly gained penetration—or occupied the offensive line to the point where middle blitzes came unblocked.

Ironically, Alabama may actually be better at pressuring up the middle when Chapman is in the game. While Cody is a beast in the middle, his presence creates such a pile that there is not much of a gap to shoot through; while Cody effectively eliminates middle running lanes, he also removes blitzing lanes.

The Trickle Down analysis noted that Tennessee had a defense that was highly ranked, however they had not been hit by a truly physical offense. Georgia, with Stafford, was able to pick them apart, and that opened up lanes allowing Moreno to gain 101 yards running the ball. 

The Bulldogs were able to gain 458 yards of offense against the Vols, and Alabama’s offense is similar to Georgia in some respects. Both teams play to their strengths—Georgia had more passing yards, Bama more rushing. Both teams are very efficient in the passing game, and play for their defense to put their offense in position to make things happen.

For Georgia, Moreno is very fast at the point of attack, and the success that Upchurch had against UT was due in large part to his acceleration. While Upchurch lacks the power of a Coffee or Ingram, he is quick to the hole with outstanding quickness on the cut. Tennessee was unable to close down on him before he was five yards down field.

Against some defenses, a power back is more effective, but against a Volunteer defense that was getting winded, Upchurch was the perfect answer. The 178 yards that Alabama gained against Tennessee was the most against their defense this season.

While the Vols defense was getting tired by the 3rd quarter, I believe that Upchurch would have been almost as effective in the early going as he was in the 3rd quarter. Credit the offensive coaches for finding what worked and sticking with it.

Tennessee on the other hand, possibly had the most unimaginative offense that I have seen all season. They play physical, yet their play calling is easier to chart than Alabama’s after Prothro’s injury in 2005. The sack by Javier Arenas on a first down blitz was no accident, the Alabama coaches knew what Tennessee was going to run based upon their previous calls in the same situation.

The blitz was so open that Javy even seemed a bit surprised. In days gone by, Tennessee would have gone for it on a couple of those 4th and short situations (we are giving up over 50 percent on 4th and short), and why they did not try an onside kick after their touchdown (especially given our history with onside kick coverage miscues), only Fulmer knows.

To be honest, Tennessee looked a lot like Alabama did under Shula. They ran a vanilla offense, and played solid defense, and took no chances at all. They appeared to play “to not lose,” rather than playing to win. While I don’t advocate “riverboat gambling,” why not kick it onside when you are down by 20 late in the 4th quarter and your defense is winded?

Honestly, I think Fulmer is through in Knoxville and he knows it. While whether or not it is the right thing to do may be debatable, he seems resolved to play it close and hope something good happens on his way to the end of the season. At that point I think he retires.

Arkansas State and Trickle Down Economics

ASU captured the attention of many people early in the season with a win over the Mike Sherman led Texas A&M Aggies. Time has shown that A&M is a team who would finish toward the bottom of the Sunbelt.

The second game of the season for Arkansas State also caused a few eyebrows to rise —a 83 to 10 smack down of Div 1-AA foe Texas Southern. Looking at Southern, the Arkansas State result no longer looks so impressive. Texas Southern is 4-4 on the season, with a win against NAIA Texas College, Division III Concordia College, and Division II Shaw College.

The lone win against 1AA competition for Texas Southern came against Alcorn State—who is struggling at 2-7 this season. The 83 points given up to the Red Wolves is not the only time this season Texas Southern has found itself on the losing end of a blowout. Texas State dropped 63 on them, and Southern University hit them for 45.

Since destroying Texas Southern, Arkansas State has been beaten by decidedly mediocre Southern Mississippi, Memphis, and Louisiana-Lafayette. Their wins have been against 2-6 Middle Tennessee State, and 2-6 Louisiana Monroe.

Some will see Louisiana-Monroe on their victim list and remember the 2007 debacle when they visited Alabama, but the 2008 ULM team makes the 2007 team look like the Chicago Bears under Ditka.

For the record, Louisiana-Monroe beat Arkansas State 30-13 in 2007. There are no valid ULM comparisons between Alabama and Arkansas State, and comparisons must be based upon this season’s results.

Do not let the 83 points on Texas Southern fool you, Arkansas State is not a pass-happy offense, the unit is balanced. The Red Wolves have 1474 yards passing on the season—210 yards per game. The rushing attack accounts for 1576 yards, or an average of 225 per game. 225ypg average looks good, but 441 came against Texas Southern.

They have NOT been held under 100 yards on the ground this season in any game, however they did gain exactly 100 in a losing effort against Louisiana Lafayette.

ASU has an experienced junior Quarterback who is very efficient, with 11 TD’s and only three interceptions in 2008.

When looking at the stats of the Red Wolves, it is worth looking at their whole body of work and who it was against. Here is how the teams they have faced rank defensively among the 119 teams in the FBS (total defense, run defense, pass defense):

TAMU - 103, 106, 84
*Texas Southern - 103, 104, 80 (FCS*)
Southern Miss - 104, 102, 100
MTSU - 70, 78, 63
Memphis - 77, 95, 44
La. Monroe - 113, 113, 89
Louisiana Lafayette - 108, 111, 74

It should be obvious from that stat alone that the ASU offensive numbers are seriously inflated against inferior opposition. Louisiana-Lafayette. for example, held Arkansas State to 100 rushing yards, yet gives up an average of 222 yards per game on the ground.

The 191 the Red Wolves gained against Southern Miss is only two yards above the average allowed by the Golden Eagles in 2008. The ASU team has not played anyone who ranks higher than Alabama in any defensive category.

This is a game that Bama will win easily. If the Tide comes out flat, it could resemble a Shula type game against a mismatched opponent, who stays close for a half before getting blown away.

Given that this is a Saban team, and Bama has show a propensity for scoring early and often when motivated, look for the game to be put away by halftime. While there may not be the motivation of a game with UGA, the disparity in talent alone will put ASU on their heels early.

ASU’s defense has 12 picks on the season, however it has been against decidedly inferior opposition. Alabama’s receiving corp will be the best ASU has faced BY FAR, and it is likely that Bama will not have to throw very much against a team that averages giving up 131 yards per game on the ground to the likes of these rushing offenses:

TAMU - 101
Texas Southern - 95 (FCS)
Southern Miss - 33
MTSU - 115
Memphis - 29
Louisiana Monroe - 59
Louisiana-Lafayette- No.1 - Option offense with cupcake schedule held to less than 100 by Illinois (who gave up 250 and 240 to Missouri and Penn State.)

One thing looking at the total body of statistical work does reveal, is the difference in consistent performance against low level teams vs. quality opponents. One of the problems with grading Arkansas State, is that they have yet to face a quality opponent. The teams that they have lost games to have not fared well.

The Louisiana-Lafayette team, for example, held State to 100 yards on the ground—but gave up 427 to a Southern Miss team held to just 37 by Auburn. The Red Wolves ran for 179 on Memphis, who also gave up 216 to Ole Miss, and 179 to a horrific Marshall team.

The combined records of the FBS teams that they have beaten is 7-23—a winning percentage of only 23 percent. Thrown in a FCS foe at 4-5, and it is still on a 33 percent winning percentage at 14-28.

The combined records of the teams that ASU has lost to is even more revealing. Their records total 10-14, including the three wins against Arkansas State. Without the wins over the Red Wolves, their records fall to 7-14—just 33 percent wins. The teams that have beaten Arkansas State were not exactly juggernauts.

For Bama to justify their No.2 national ranking, this is the kind of team they need to dominate like Penn State dominated Temple—a team that is comparable to Arkansas State, only having played a more difficult schedule.

“Trickle Down” Analysis

ASU is like most Sun Belt teams, with few true “big league” caliber players, other than a few partial qualifier types, and they sign more JUCO players than the big time 1-A teams. Looking at their recruiting classes reveals no players rated higher than two stars in 2008, and only one player ranked higher than 100 nationally, at his position. The 2008 class ranked 104th nationally.

The 2007 class ranked 82nd nationally, and did have a four star OG—who did not qualify and ended up at Ole Miss. Without him, the class would probably have been ranked over 100.

The 2006 recruiting class was tied for 116th nationally, containing just one two star player, with the rest being one star/unrated according to Scout.

Finally, the 2005 class contained two, two star players, the rest unrated—for a 115th ranking.

This is not a team loaded with talent. Their best player is a defensive lineman that was missed out on by the powers, but is certainly good enough to play for most teams. They shore up positions with JUCO players, but lack the depth of BCS schools.

In Week Eight, the “Trickle Down” prediction was 35-14, and while the numbers were slightly off, the margin of victory in the 29-9 Bama win was 20—compared to a trickle down prediction of 21. Fellow RTB staffer Terry Pellman predicted a similar outcome at 34-15, missing by minus 1.

Some might worry that Alabama is looking ahead to LSU, and while that is a danger, the prediction this week would be the same if Alabama spent the week breaking down film and preparing for the Bengal Tigers in practice.

While a Sunbelt team coming out of an off-week sandwiched between two conference rivals fits the bill of a trap game, I just cannot see it based on talent level alone.

Alabama is simply bigger, stronger, and faster—at almost every position on the field. The ASU corners and wideouts are undersized, as is the DL—going 280, 290, 275, and 250 across the front. Their LB’s range from 210 to 230, and two of them (Owens and Glover) are in the top four tacklers, with 51 and 38 stops.

The top player on their defense (and probably team) is 6′5″ 280 lb DE Alex Carrington, a preseason All-Sunbelt player who leads the team in tackles for loss and sacks, with 14 and 9.5. He could present a challenge if Alabama is forced into obvious passing situations. He will be lined up across from Drew Davis.

The ASU offensive line is a solid unit with a 330 lb Senior JUCO transfer RT, but four of their starters are new in 2008, and they are matched up against one of the top DL’s in the nation. How they handle their calls against a Nick Saban defense will determine how quickly things turn south for them.

ASU may have a bit of early offensive success if Alabama is not focused, and they will probably get a score in trash time to total 14, but Alabama DL will be the fastest unit they have faced—by far.

Bama’s defensive challenge will be for the DL to keep on doing what they do, and the LB’s to contain a QB who is capable of hurting you with his feet if he has to. We should be able to cover their receivers with relative ease, and our secondary could benefit from forced throws—even though the ASU QB only has three picks on the season, the Bama defense will be by far the most confusing he has faced this season.

The Bottom Line

Against ASU, look for a near repeat of the WKU game, with Bama’s offense scoring on long runs, while the defense (mostly) containing the ASU rushing attack. The Tide may have three backs go over 100 yards, and John Parker Wilson will pass for a "buck-fifty." Arkansas State’s defensive starters are a decent blue-collar group, but they lack depth, and that will come into play against a physical Alabama offense.

ASU hung with Texas in the first game of the 2007 season, but the Vols beat them 48-27. In 2008, the ASU team has given up 28 and 29 in losses to La.-La and Memphis, and that does not bode well for them coming into Tuscaloosa.

While the potent ASU offense hung 83 on Texas Southern, to borrow from Verne Lundquist, “there are few truths in an uncertain world, but here’s one of them: Alabama ain’t Texas Southern.”

While there are a lot of “weak sisters” type teams I had rather us be playing this week, I still think Bama wins convincingly on the strength of an offense that just keeps pounding at you.

Trickle Down Prediction:

Bama 45
ASU 14

Alabama Fans, Know Your Opponent: Arkansas State

Oct 26, 2008

There’s a lot to know about Arkansas State the average fan doesn’t know.  They’ve done something that the Tide has trouble doing: They beat Louisiana-Monroe.  Also this season, they beat Texas A&M 18-14, Texas Southern, and Middle Tennessee.  So far this season they are 4-3 and feel like they are capable of playing the big boys.

However, feelings are just an emotion, and physics say you lose when you’re outweighed, outmuscled, outrun, out-coached and out-talented.  This is a team that can bite a team that dares overlook it, but that won’t be the case this Saturday.  Right now Alabama has too much to look forward to to dare look past the Red Wolves from Arkansas State.

Offense

Arkansas State is a running team.  They come at you with different running backs, and all can hurt you.  They pass just enough to keep you honest, but it won’t be the passing game that hurts you, just maybe move the chains.  They get their yardage the old-fashioned way: on the ground.

Reggie Arnold and Derek Lawson’s season statistics are almost identical running the ball.  They have 555 and 553 yards respectively.  You’d better not leave the QB without containment, because Corey Leonard can tuck it and run it like a quality running back.  You don’t run this well without a decent line, and they have one of those.

They have a solid field goal kicker, and their punter is good.  So far in seven games, they’ve averaged 33 points a game.  This average was aided much by an 83-10 blowout of Texas Southern.  Against Texas A&M, they won 18-14, and their other low output was a loss at Memphis by a score of 17-29.  Good defenses can hold down their average.

Defense

On defense, they average giving up only 21 points a game.  The defense is very opportunistic.  They create turnovers and then capitalize on them.  So far this year they have 10 picks and eight fumbles.  They have returned three fumbles for TDs and one interception for a score.

They don’t mind physical play.  Ben Owens is a senior linebacker and leads the team in tackles, something usually done by a safety.  The second-leading tackler is M.D. Jennings, a defensive back.  Alex Carrington has nine sacks so far this year, and the team has 21 altogether.  Like I say, they like to come at you.

How It Plays Out

As I said earlier, this is a good team that could hurt a team that takes them lightly.  The problem is Alabama is a great team that may have gotten over looking past lightly regarded opponents.

Look for Bama to run at will against them, to try to open up the passing game and get some practice there for the LSU game, and to score early and often. 

On defense, look for Bama to commit to stop the run and force more passing.  Arkansas State will get their licks in, but it will be a case of too little and too lightly.  The Red Wolves are no match for a rampaging elephant, and they should be thoroughly stomped by evening’s end.

Bama, 41-10.