Georgetown Basketball

As the first day of the First Round of March Madness has come to a close, and Georgetown's opponent soon to be determined, it's about time to predict where the Hoyas will be in a couple of weeks.

The Hoyas struggled horribly at the end of the season without Chris Wright running the show.  Jason Clark had a couple big games, which was nice to see, and Austin Freeman was solid. But no one was who they are without the point-man.

It became ever-more apparent that Georgetown has been a solid team all year.  Not just a collection of a few great players, but very good players who need each other to be great.  I don't want to take anything away from Freeman, but he needs Chris Wright to be successful.

The good news is that Wright is going to return.  The question is, how good will he be?  Answer this question and that will show you how far the Hoyas will go in tournament.

The simple fact of having Chris Wright back on the court will make a huge difference.  His leadership will take a load off of Freeman and Clark to allow them to be back into the rolls they are better suited for.  Having people fall back into their rolls will trickle down through the entire squad and in turn improve the team back to what they were mid-season in the Big East.

I can envision two ways; however, Wright's return will hurt the Hoyas.  One, his hand is not healed enough to dribble and pass sharply.  Two, he tries to do it all to make up for being gone.  I don't think that either of these will happen, but I know as a player I played through injuries that I shouldn't have, plus, Chris is a senior, so who knows.

Until we know who the Hoyas will face, it is hard to predict how they will do Friday night.  I know it sounds cliche, but I really don't think it matters as much who they play as much as how they play. 

With a healthy Wright, Georgetown is clearly superior to either USC or VCU. (I do think I am more worried about VCU for the record) I think with last year's humiliation in losing to Ohio and having to overcome late season adversity I think the Hoyas will be poised to win, it might be a struggle and closer than it should be, but they will move on. 

Looking further down the bracket, with the news of Purdue suspending a starting guard opens the door for Georgetown to move on to the Sweet 16 with a win over the Boilermakers, or St. Peter's if Purdue completely falls apart. 

If Georgetown can do that and move on and play next weekend, you could very well be looking at a team on a roll who can beat anyone in the country.  Let's hope that is the case. 

Chris Wright spent the past two weeks proving NBA scouts wrong about his NBA potential and leadership without ever stepping out onto the court.

For the past four years, the Georgetown Hoyas point guard has been labeled small and not enough of a scorer by NBA scouts looking for any reason to dismiss his proven abilities.

After breaking his wrist in a game against Cincinnati back in late February, NBA scouts and doubters found out just how wrong they were.

Since reeling off eight straight Big East wins to match their longest consecutive Big East winning streak since the 2006-07 season when the Hoyas made the Final Four, Georgetown has proceeded to lose their last four games in Wright's absence.

Without their distributor and leader of the offense on the floor, the Hoyas have become one-dimensional, with Austin Freeman being forced to (unsuccessfully) carry the team.

While Georgetown's scoring output dropped to 51.5 ppg (down from 72.2 ppg during their eight-game Big East winning streak), Wright's value has never been as a pure scorer; rather, Wright is the classic pass-first smart point guard who distributes the ball and makes the players around him better.

Without him, the Hoyas haven't just struggled, they've been down right uncompetitive save for a 10-minute second-half stretch in a home loss to Syracuse. His numbers wont blow you away. In fact, they may only embolden the doubters.

There is nothing wrong with a solid 13.1 points, 5.4 assists and 1.5 steals, but such numbers aren't going to win Wright player of the year honors either.

The thing is, Wright doesn't care about those numbers, it's the win column that counts and with Wright at his take-charge, push-the-tempo best, Georgetown raced up the Big East standings. Thanks to Wright and backcourt running mate Freeman, the Hoyas notched wins over Louisville, Marquette, St. John's and more impressively, Missouri, Syracuse and Villanova on the road.

In fact, it was the Villanova game where Wright showed his true value and grit.

With deft ball handling, astute decision making and voracious defense, Chris Wright helped Georgetown overcome Nova's vaunted full court press and shut down the Wildcats' explosive perimeter scoring, guiding Georgetown to a 69-66 win; he didn't even need to score a point to do it.

Classic Chris Wright basketball.

NBA teams will regret passing on drafting Wright who is projected as a mid to late second round pick. But before NBA teams have to deal with him, there are quite a few tournament teams—most notably USC or VCU—who are wishing he wasn't ready to return to the court just yet.

Look for Georgetown to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament and for Wright to propel himself up the NBA draft boards.

If you don't believe me, take it from our former president, Mr. Bill Clinton:

"I still think they can go deep in the NCAA tournament, especially once they get Mr. Wright back!" courtesy of CasualHoya.com

The Big East is, without a doubt, the deepest conference in college basketball.  They've got eight teams ranked in the top 25 and and eight teams with 20 or more wins.

Right now, the Big East has nine teams with a chance of being invited to the NCAA Tournament.

If they get in, the Big East would break its own record of six teams invited to the dance in 2006 and 2008.

Out of the possible Big East teams with a chance in, here are four with a chance at the Final Four...

Pittsburgh

After missing three games, guard Ashton Gibbs returned to a Pittsburgh against St. Johns. Such is life in the Big East. Pitt, however is ranked in the top five for both rebounding and assists. Plus, having their leading scorer back (16.7 ppg) gives the team one of the best three-point shooters in the country at 47%.

Three of Pitt's five starters are seniors. Gilbert Brown, Gary McGhee, and Brad Wanamaker give Pitt the confidence, leadership, and skill to make the Final Four.

Syracuse

The Orange Men have some solid road victories under their belt such as the wins at St. Johns, UConn, and, more recently, Villanova.

After a four-game skid in January, Syracuse is beginning to pull it together, winning their last three in a row. It will be interesting to see what they can do at Georgetown on Saturday.

Rick Jackson is a beast under the basket, averaging a double–double for the year. Like Jim Boeheim wanted, Brandon Triche has been able to turn it on and become a legit scoring threat at the "off guard" position, as well as a leader on the court.

The key is Antonio "Scoop" Jardine. Can he control the ball for the Orange and make big plays when needed?

Georgetown

For the past couple years, the Georgetown Hoyas have underachieved come March.

This year, however, could be different.

Georgetown is one of the most offensively efficient teams in the nation, led by senior guard Austin Freeman. This kid is shooting 40% from beyond the arc and over 50% from the field for better than 17 points per game.

Georgetown's ability to convert may explain why they are 5–2 in games decided by five points or fewer. Good practice for the close, grind 'em out games that come with tournament play. 

Notre Dame

When a team controls the pace of a game, they give themselves an opportunity to beat teams that may be better than them. Case in point: Notre Dame over Pitt, at Pitt.

The Fighting Irish are great at drawing out possessions, forcing teams to play at least 20 seconds of defense. This aggravates more athletic teams and hides any Notre Dame defensive liabilities. Simply put, if your opponent does not have the ball, you don't have to play defense.

Notre Dame shoots the ball well and makes their free throws, but the X–Factor for the Irish is Ben Hansbrough. All year he has been one of college basketball's best closers.

Notre Dame's ball control, pacing, and shooting put them in a good spot to beat better teams, making the Irish this year's giant killers.

Teams in The Big East have the luxury of stellar competition within the conference. By the time the tournament rolls around, Big East teams are well tested and ready for tough games.

Three out of the eight Final Four teams in the last two years have been from the Big East. This year, the conference may be the best it has ever been. At least one team will make the Final Four. The question is: which one?

Austin Freeman might be the best player in the Big East, but does he have enough around him to win the conference?  My answer at this point, is no. 

I think Georgetown has the talent to compete for the title, but they have yet to put together enough of solid play for me to believe they can win the Big East.  Chris Wright and Jason Clark are as good as any in the conference, but the front line is going to be a question mark.  Julian Vaughn shows signs of being dominant, but comes up empty in the next game.  Hollis Thompson was erratic enough to head to the bench, a move that may make the Hoyas better.

After this group, is there anyone that matches up with the elites in the conference?  What do we do when one of these players get into foul trouble?

Having said that, I think the Hoyas do have a chance to be dancing into the Final Four.  If they can put together a run in March the way they are currently playing, they will have enough talent to advance against anyone. 

I think Georgetown will finish in the top five and advance to the semi-finals in the Big East Conference tournament.  If they do, they should be good for a 3-4 seed in the dance.  I think they have a better chance of going deep if they are seeded no higher than between 3-5, since the Hoyas have had a history of falling to teams they should have easily taken care of. 

The Big East conference is good enough to send 12 teams to the dance.  When it comes down to it, I will not be surprised to see a Big East team winning it all, and even further, I won't be surprised if five teams of the Elite 8 are representing the conference.

John Thompson: The name alone jolts memories of the days when the Georgetown Hoyas reigned supreme over college basketball.

Coined “The Beast of the East,” Thompson led his team into memorable battles during the 1980s and early 1990s.

Nose to nose man defense...pressure...pressure...pressure…

A gritty in your face attitude that even made Rayful Edmond respect it…

The bullies...ferocious rebounding...shot blocking...

All synonymous with Thompson’s teams of yesteryear—but today’s Hoyas are a far cry from tough, great defenders, shot blockers or good.

Rather, like today’s Washington, DC, the 2011 Hoyas are a more relaxed, demure, sophisticated squad—a gentrified, watered-down version of a once great program. Today their defense resembles the matador style: I’ll let you score so I can jack up another three-pointer when we get the ball.

Gone are the days of the patented white t-shirt under the Georgetown jersey—the fierce front line that dared opponents to enter the lane. Away has the attitude gone that said, we will beat you physically, mentally, but more so psychologically because we want it more—we deserve it more.

Alas, my fair Hoyas are outmuscled, overpowered and outhustled on a nightly basis.

The offense, once a battering ram, now resembles an Ivy League puzzle flowing off three-point shots and ill-advised passes—turnovers and fluttering faces.

On Wednesday night at the Verizon Center against Pittsburgh, the Hoyas defense was passive enough to win the Nobel Peace Prize. The Hoyas’ 222nd national ranking in rebounding was never in jeopardy, as the Panthers outrebounded and outhustled the Hoyas all night.

Coming into the game, I expected a sense of urgency from the struggling Hoyas, who were in 1-3 in conference play, but it appeared as if the Panthers, from the opening tip, wanted it more, had a deeper desire and deserved the win.

SI.com's Luke Winn is a great college basketball writer. He does copious amounts of research, has a great understanding of advanced basketball statistics and comes up with interesting topics to discuss in his articles. Unfortunately, Winn has also been the recipient of misleading information.

In his December 16 college basketball power rankings, Winn quotes an assistant coach from an opposing team who scouted the Georgetown Hoyas and had this to say:

"I honestly think, because their guards [Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and Jason Clark] are so talented and skilled, that the faster they play, the better off they are. Because the more chances you give those three guys to make decisions on the fly and create shots, the better off they're going to be."

Immediately upon reading this, red flags went off for me because, in my experience, the tempo at which a team plays has very little to do with just how efficient it is offensively. A team that plays at a slow pace has just as much chance of being a great offensive team as one who treats every possession like a fast break opportunity.

If it were actually the case that the Georgetown Hoyas would be a better team if they played at a faster tempo, then it would be reflected in their play this season. Luckily, finding out such is an easy task as all one has to do is run a correlation between Georgetown's possessions and its offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions).

As it turns out, through their 15 games this season, the Hoyas have a .374 correlation between their number of possessions and their offensive efficiency, indicating there is some truth behind the assistant coach's proclamation. The correlation, which is fairly strong, does reveal that the faster the Hoyas have played, the more efficient their offense has become.

However, in the grand scheme of what comprises Georgetown's offensive efficiency, the speed at which they play is less important than a number of other categories.

The most important factor in determining how efficiently the Hoyas have played on offense should come as no surprise; it is how well they have shot the ball.

No matter which shooting statistic you choose to look at, be it field goal percentage (.857 correlation), true shooting percentage (.832 correlation) or effective field goal percentage (.799 correlation), how well the Hoyas shoot is an incredibly more powerful and reliable indicator of their final offensive efficiency.

Additionally, the Hoyas' assist rate (.582 correlation), turnover rate (-.525 correlation), offensive rebounding percentage (.400 correlation) and turnovers per possession (-.430) all have more to do with their offensive efficiency than their tempo does.

Instead of advocating that the Georgetown Hoyas play at a faster pace to maximize their offensive potential, the opposing assistant coach should have advised the Hoyas to shoot better from the field, make sure all passes are leading to field goal makes for their teammates, limit their turnovers and grab as many offensive rebounds as they can.

All of those pieces of advice would benefit the Hoyas more in the future than simply playing faster so they can acquire more possessions.

 

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Not yet.

While John Thompson III's teams have distinguished themselves from the senior John Thompson's Hoyas with a more slick and nimble offense, they still have some ways to go before matching the reputation and elite quality of those 1980's squads.  One thing though that teams of both Thompson eras have in common is the impending sense of dread they are able to conjure up in fans.

The long-time faithful know the feeling.  Pulp Fiction's Marsellus Wallace might best describe what it's like watching an important Georgetown game:

"The night of the game, you may feel a slight sting.  That's trepidation ****ing with you."

That fear of the Hoyas not playing up to their potential or losing a big game has reared its ugly head once again, forcing Hoya fans to take their annual leap of faith.  To believe or not to believe, that is the question.

Georgetown (12-2) has soundly drubbed Coastal Carolina, Wofford, Appalachian State and other teams they're supposed to, but there's still a hint of the ol’ let-ya-down Hoyas in their play.

They started the season with a squeak win over "others receiving votes" Old Dominion, 62-59, after trailing for most of the game.

They pulled out an upset on the road over the then higher-ranked Missouri Tigers, but did it by forcing overtime with a last-second three-pointer.

They beat a very overrated Memphis team by 17.

But they also lost to unranked Temple and couldn't handle No. 15 Notre Dame's defense at all, scoring a season-low 55 points.

They've yo-yoed in the rankings.  ESPN had them 21st preseason.  They rocketed up the AP chart to ninth over the first few weeks of the season, only to fall back to 15th following the Temple loss.  They bounced back up to No. 9 again, but look to drop this week following their loss to the Fighting Irish.

And they have some major challenges ahead.  As if normally playing in the Big East isn’t enough, the conference surely is the best in college basketball this year.  The Hoyas still have to face No. 4 UConn, No. 5 Syracuse twice, No. 6 Pittsburgh, No. 8 Villanova and No. 22 Louisville before they even get to the Big East tournament to play some of those teams again.  They’re lucky they don't have to face any other ranked teams for the remainder of the season.

Do the Hoyas have what it takes to beat higher-ranked opponents, to consistently defeat ranked teams,and to defeat other Big East teams like West Virginia or the 14-0 Cincinnati Bearcats, whom they meet twice in their final three games?  There’s certainly a long and interesting road ahead.

For sure, JT3’s program has been head and shoulders above placeholder Esherick’s, when Georgetown went five-and-a-half years with one NCAA tournament appearance.  In Thompson the Younger's six years, the Hoyas have made the tournament four times, including an unexpected Final Four appearance in 2007, their first since 1985 (the Villanova year). The 2007 team was led by juniors Jeff Green (14.3, .513) and Roy Hibbert (12.9, .671), who are now both NBA'ers. 

On paper, this year's team is better and quicker, led by seniors Austin Freeman (19.2, .575) and Chris Wright (13.1, .440) and junior Jason Clark (13.8, .518). Imposing senior forward Julian Vaughn leads the defense with two blocks a game and also averages nine points.  Promising 6’7’’ sophomore forward Hollis Thompson rounds out the starters; he’s got 15 three-pointers.  And finally 6’10’’ junior center Henry Sims leads the charge from a deep bench.

JT3 also embraces the three-pointer, not something necessarily associated with the Blue and Gray.  Back in ’07, the Hoyas nailed 235 from behind the arc.  This year, they’re on pace for 220, but likely it will be more when you look at the competition ahead.

The Hoyas exhibit a crispness, an almost professionalism, that clearly indicates the deeply-held game philosophy and continued progression of an ever maturing and improving coach.  Georgetown would be most fortunate to see another long Thompson reign.

But are they the real deal in '10-'11?

It's a question of which Georgetown team shows up.  Will it be the one that lost to Villanova in 1985, or the one that was bounced out of the tourney in the first round last year by 14-seed Ohio? Or will it be the one that beat Houston in 1984, or the one that surprised everyone upsetting No. 1-seeded North Carolina in 2007?

These Hoyas should consistently beat good teams this year.  They should go far in the tournament.  As the season unfolds over the next two months, we'll get a good look at the skill and character of this team.

The potential and opportunity are there for these Hoyas, more than any other Georgetown team in two decades, to make their mark in Georgetown and college basketball history.

Rankings are AP, as of Jan 2.

Georgetown Hoyas 2010-11.  Click on recent scores for recap and video highlights.

The Georgetown Hoyas notched their 10th win of the season Saturday afternoon, drubbing the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds 99-75.

It was sophomore forward Hollis Thompson's turn to lead the Hoyas, as he and Austin Freeman scored 14.  Thompson also led the team in rebounds with four.

Henry Sims (Jr., C) was stellar off the bench scoring a season-high 12 points and adding five assists.

The new-look Hoyas have found themselves a niche, combining a Princeton-like offense with their typical gruff defensive play.

For the second game in a row, Georgetown demonstrated textbook unselfishness as 12 of the 14 players who entered the game scored. Meanwhile, their defense struck again, holding Loyola to just 27 points in the first half and recording 10 steals and four blocked shots for the game.

The only bright spot for the Greyhounds was freshman guard Justin Drummond's game-high 21 points off the bench.

The Hoyas now look ahead to their third big test of the season when they will face the 18th-ranked Memphis Tigers on Thursday night in Tennessee.  Previously Georgetown defeated ninth-ranked (at the time) Missouri and lost to tough but unranked Temple.  Memphis has suffered one loss this season, at the hands of the third-ranked Kansas Jayhawks.

Box Score

Georgetown Hoyas 2010-11 Roster

Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds 2010-11 Roster

Up Next

Georgetown @ No. 18 Memphis, Thu Dec. 23 at 8PM

Georgetown @ No. 24 Notre Dame, Wed Dec. 29 at 7PM

Memphis Tigers 2010-11 Statistics

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2010-11 Statistics

Bonus

The Hoyas' top 15 rebounders of all time: