Georgetown-Louisville: Hoyas Return To Winning Ways by Feeding Their Big Man
Who are the 2009-10 Georgetown Hoyas?
Are they the team that opened up a 20-point lead on the current No. 5 team in the country (Duke)? Are they the team that swallowed up Villanova, scoring 103 points on a once-respected Wildcat defense?
Or are they the team that managed to lose to Rutgers on Valentine's Day, after they'd beaten the Scarlet Knights by 25 points earlier in the season? What about the team that laid an egg against USF, or the team that was down 23 points to Syracuse in the second half last week?
Whichever identity the Hoyas want to run with for the rest of the year, one thing is abundantly clear: The Georgetown Hoyas will go as far as Greg Monroe takes them, and no further.
What, you say? Austin Freeman was the one who singlehandedly keyed Georgetown's comeback last night against Louisville with another bananas second half performance (24 points in the final 20 minutes, 29 overall) to save the Hoyas from another one of those can't-feel-feelings, soul-crushing losses?
True. Freeman went nuts. At this point, that can't be altogether unexpected, considering he's averaging a ridiculous 20.2 points in conference play.
But not far behind him was Monroe, the 6'11" sophomore who finished with 16 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, and a steal against the Cardinals.
In fact, without Monroe keeping the Hoyas relevant in the first half, Freeman would have needed to conjure even more magic from three-point land to make Louisville sweat their lead.
Bottom line: Without Monroe, the Hoyas lose that game against Louisville. By double digits (and they lose just about every other game this season, while we're at it).
Go ahead and focus on Freeman knocking down 29 points on a paltry 12 shots. His shot efficiency was nothing short of absurd, but that's just the problem: Georgetown can't rely on those types of shooting performances by Freeman every game as it approaches the Big East and NCAA tournaments.
Sure, Freeman will likely score 20 points in a given game, but does he do it on 12 shots like last night, or does he chuck up 20-25 shots in a game to get there?
Instead, take a look at how Monroe impacted the game last night on both the offensive and defensive ends.
In the first half, when Georgetown missed seven of its first eight shots and fell behind by double digits early, the Hoyas fed Monroe often, and Monroe took it hard to the basket. Monroe finished with 12 points, 7 rebounds, one assist and a steal in the half.
Georgetown finished with 29 points in the first half.
Meanwhile, defensively Monroe was responsible for holding Louisville's best player, Samardo Samuels, to 11 points and six rebounds in the game—five points and two rebounds below his season average.
When Samuels was chucking up desperate, off-balance close-range shots in the second half over Monroe's outstretched arms, the Hoyas clawed back and took the lead. Samuels missed a jumper and two layups in the first six minutes, as Georgetown turned a six-point halftime deficit into an eight-point second half lead.
Samuels finished the half having hit three of seven buckets, with two defensive rebounds and a turnover.
Monroe finished the second half scoring only four points (2-4 FG), but he grabbed seven more rebounds and dished out four assists.
Now, it's no secret that Georgetown's offense flows through Monroe, but thanks to the statistical wizards at HoyaProspectus , they (and now, so do I) have some stats to prove just how valuable of a cog Monroe is to the Georgetown machine.
HoyaProspectus has recorded every possession that each player is on the court, and how that possession ended.
Unsurprisingly, Freeman is ranked first offensively for Georgetown, producing an average of 114.7 points per 100 possessions, but Monroe doesn't trail far behind with his 110.3 per 100 possessions. Again, seeing as Freeman leads the Hoyas this year with 17.5 ppg while Monroe scores an average of 15.7 ppg, these aren't earth shattering statistics when analyzed independently.
But a gander at Georgetown's defensive statistics spells out Monroe's all-around impact on the team's well-being. According to these stats, Monroe is the best Hoya defender by far , allowing only an average of 86.5 points per 100 possessions. The second closest on the team, point guard Chris Wright, gives up an average of 92 points per 100 possessions.
When the guys worked their magic to figure out the players' net points (net points defined as average of [ORtg - DRtg]*%Poss and [Pts. produced - Pts. allowed], clearly) , Monroe comes out Georgetown's most effective player by a mile.
Monroe's net points produced comes out to 127.7. The next highest on the team, Austin Freeman, clocks in at 71.1. Only the starters have positive values for net points produced.
Again, Freeman's got the unquestioned ability to shred a lead into pieces quicker than anyone else on the Hoyas. But Monroe is by far the Hoyas' best player on the court.
If the Hoyas remember this, and continue to feed their big man no matter how successful at first , good things will come.
When they forget to feed their big man (see: down 71-70 against 'Cuse, immediately after Monroe recovered the ball and called timeout with less than a minute left)...they suffer losses that make you unable to feel feelings (trust me).
Want an answer to where to put Georgetown in your NCAA bracket?
Watch Monroe over the next two weeks.
Chris Wright isn't the bellwether of this Georgetown team. They can clearly win when he doesn't score 10 points.
Monroe's the bellwether, and Monroe's the glue that keeps the Georgetown engine running.