Syracuse Football

Who wants to get bowl eligible?

That’s the big question for the regular season finale between the (5-6, 1-5 Big East) Syracuse Orangemen and the (5-6, 3-3) Pittsburgh Panthers.

Both teams have failed to meet preseason expectations this season but can salvage a bowl game with a win in this Big East conference battle. Here’s everything you need to know in a matchup that Pittsburgh has won six straight times.

Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

When: Saturday December 3rd, 12:00 P.M EST

Spread: Syracuse @ Pittsburgh -10 (Courtesy of Covers.com)

The recent history suggests this is a no-brainer. The Panthers have been dominant in their last six games against the Orangemen (remember last year’s 45-14 affair?) and all of the trends are pointing in Pittsburgh’s direction.

Key Trends

Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh.

Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Orange are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Over/Under—47

The fewest points the ‘Cuse have given up in their last six games is 23. They are a whopping 73rd in the league in total defense.

On the other hand, the Panthers are allowing only 17 points a game in their last two and are facing a Syracuse offense that is struggling mightily. In the past four games they have scored 10, 21, 17 and 13 points.

Ouch.

Key Trends

Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games following a ATS win.

Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games overall.

Under is 15-7-1 in Orange last 23 road games.

Syracuse Injuries

Ri’shard Anderson, CB- Probable (Upper Body)

Jeremiah Kobena, WR- Probable (Lower Body)

Adam Harris, FB- Doubtful (Upper Body)

Kyle Foster, WR- Doubtful (Leg)

Pittsburgh Injuries

Lucas Nix, OL- Probable (Knee)

Devin Street, WR- Probable (Leg)

Zach Brown, RB- Questionable (Sternum)

Ronald Jones, WR- Doubtful (Concussion)

What They’re Saying

Pittsburgh is clearly disappointed with their season, but guard Lucas Nix told reporters that they are focused on going out with a bang on Senior Day:

Obviously we didn't want to be in the position where we're fighting to be in a bowl game, but it would be big for us to get to one. Not only that, it's Senior Day, so we all want to perform well.

All year, we kept saying, 'It's getting close it's getting close.' At points we thought we were there and getting over the hump, but it's just mental mistakes, people not fully buying into the system. I honestly think all these players have tried to buy in, it's just a matter of more time and repetitions.

Key Matchup

Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib (2460 yards, 21 TDs and seven INTs) has really struggled during this five game losing streak after starting the season so well. If he can find a way to get the ball down field to Alec Lemon (735 yards and six TDs) on a mediocre Panther secondary, this game is coming down to the fourth quarter.

Prediction

There is no way to slice the sub-par numbers of the Orangemen. They rank 96th in rushing yards (120), 79th in scoring (24.5) and 73rd in points against (28). The upset win over West Virginia seems like decades ago at this point.

There are too many factors trending the wrong way for a Syracuse team that simply doesn’t have the talent of a Pittsburgh team that has underachieved all season.

With the chance to win on Senior Day and earn a bowl bid—Pittsburgh prevails.

Pittsburgh 24 Syracuse 13

Isaiah Pead and Antwon Bailey both had career days in the Carrier Dome in the Syracuse 30-13 loss to Cincinnati, but it was ultimately Pead whose contributions led to a win. Pead finished the afternoon with 80 yards rushing and another 112 yards receiving. 

Pead had both of the back-breaking plays that doomed the Orange after their defense had started the game by holding the Bearcats to field goals in the red zone.

In the third quarter, Pead ran right up the middle of the Syracuse defense 24 yards for a score to respond to an Orange touchdown. Later in the fourth, Pead made the most of the open field on a 69-yard touchdown reception to make the score 30-13.

Not to be forgotten were Antwon Bailey's contributions to the Orange. Although the Orange lost by 17, Antwon Bailey did all he could to keep the score close. Bailey fought hard on 27 carries for 135 yards, many of those after contact.

Bailey also added another 43 yards receiving to be the only real piece of the Orange offense that showed consistency. 

Ryan Nassib struggled to find receivers, who were open. Often when there was an open look Nassib missed the read. Nick Provo scored the lone Orange touchdown, but he had a rough day trying to make plays. 

The defense did miss suspended safety Phillip Thomas, but the issue for the Orange was effectively slowing down the Bearcats on third down. The Orange could not get off the field on defense early and could not stay on with the offense (4-for-15 on third down conversions themselves). 

Overall,Syracuse simply was not good enough to win. While the talent and potential may be there, the Orange have not shown it over the last four weeks. They came out flat once again on offense and the defense eventually cracked under the pressure of having to shut out the high-powered Cincinnati offense. 

The Orange need a win this week against Pittsburgh to be bowl-eligible, but the general consensus among Orange fans is that even if this were to happen the Orange are not playing at the level necessary to earn a bowl win.

Doug Marrone has won one Big East home game in the last two years. The Orange are a rebuilding program that needs to infuse talent if it is going to compete.

Games like this show that Syracuse simply does not have the talent at this point. 

News remained bleak for the Syracuse Orange football squad this week. Along with Phillip Thomas' suspension, Freshman nose guard Eric Crume and second year freshman Micah Robinson are both done for the year with injuries. 

While the loss of Crume and Robinson may not be immediately felt, they both provided depth along the defensive line and with the struggles the Orange have had against the run, depth within the front seven is very valuable. 

As for Thomas, no one is sure what he has been suspended for and Doug Marrone will not say. What Marrone will say is that Thomas "played that position well for us" and that the replacements will have to step up. Right now the safety rotation includes Olando Fisher (who filled in for Shamarko Thomas earlier this year), Jeremi Wilkes and Ritchy Desir. 

In more unfortunate news, Nick Provo—on pace to shatter most if not all Syracuse Tight End records—was left off the finalist list for the John Mackey Award. Provo has had a terrific season and would be considered by many to be the best player on the Orange offense. 

Provo has been a consistent target, rarely dropping passes and a safe option for Ryan Nassib. Two finalists attend ranked schools (Georgia Tech and Georgia) while the third attends Notre Dame. Cue the Orange conspiracy theorists who beleive Provo was left out because the Orange are not ranked. 

Regardless, Syracuse athletics has not had the best week and news like this only further covers a season with despair that once had so much hope. 

The Syracuse Orange are in a rut that makes the Grand Canyon look like a crack in the sidewalk.

The offense has yet to eclipse the total number of points they scored against West Virginia in their three losses. The defense has been shredded against the run when the concerns all year were in the secondary. The special teams unit looks like class-A high school football with their 10-yard punts and kickoffs landing at the 20.

Long and short of it, this team went from BCS contender to Big East bottom-feeder. 

So what happened? While it is true West Virginia came out flat against the Orange, who had Geno Smith game-planned to his bathroom breaks, no team can go from that good to this bad, while West Virginia possess too much raw talent to be decimated by a horrible team even on their worst day. 

The offense is struggling. No doubt about it. They are frustrated, out of sync, and play calling is anything but sound.

So, how can this be fixed? First, it's time for a leader on the unit (Ryan Nassib, Alec Lemon and Antwon Bailey are the "leaders" with Bailey as captain) to call the classic players-only meeting to flesh out the issues of trust and frustration.

Secondly, they need to start taking risks in the game. Ryan Nassib's or Nate Hackett's logic with the ball is that even down 20, short, effective passes are the best option. Syracuse isn't winning with this plan, so why not just air it out downfield and see what happens? With the way special teams are playing, an interception on third down 50 yards downfield will probably be better than an attempted punt. 

Finally, the running game needs to get more creative. Bailey is great at grabbing the dirty yards, but running at the same hole over and over again only works for so long. Use the running game to keep the defense off balance in a passing-oriented attack. In situations like those, Bailey always seems to get to the second level where he finds space and speed to gain huge chunks of yards and keep the defense off balance.

For the defense, the issue is simple: stop the run. The defensive secondary is not to the level of LSU, but they have drastically improved with man coverage, while the two Thomas safeties anchor the unit with suburb play, even moving up to stack the box. But you know there are issues when three straight opponents defeat Syracuse on the ground. 

Start specifically with the spread attack. Syracuse has yet to really replicate the success they had against Geno Smith in West Virginia's spread. Louisville outplayed them physically on the line, UConn was able to keep Syracuse off balance and South Florida used B.J. Daniels' ability to fake handoffs perfectly to get the Orange out of position, opening up passing and running lanes. 

While Cincinnati may not have the personnel to run this kind of attack, there is no doubt they will run the ball early to test the Syracuse defense. The defense needs to stay disciplined and secure tackles within the linebackers and backs in order to ensure option lanes stay closed while simultaneously mixing up formations to force the quarterback to think instead of run. The line has to assert their will on Cincinnati and force extra protection. 

All of this is easier said than done, but the Orange can achieve all of this during their bye week because they have accomplished it before.

There was a time when the Orange offense was a machine led by Nassib and Bailey. The defense was once dominant at the line, even without Chandler Jones. The question is, can they do it again before this season goes down as a disappointment? 

For more Syracuse sports updates and news, follow @ACPregler on Twitter. 

Word came across the wire this week that Nick Provo was named a John Mackey award semifinalist.

Provo's six touchdowns are tied for best on the team and fourth among tight ends across the nation. There is an obvious Hollywood script feeling that a Syracuse tight end could win the award named after one of the best Syracuse players of all-time the year he passed away. However, building Provo's resume for this award may also help the Syracuse offense.

Looking at the Syracuse offensive scheme, the Orange have the desire to run the ball down the throats of their opponents. However, with the increasing struggles of the offensive line, this plan seems like it should it be slightly adjusted. However, as seen with the USF game, Syracuse's passing game is also out of rhythm, struggling to maintain drives and convert on red-zone opportunities.

Enter in more Provo. While Nick Provo's stat line for receiving yards may seem lackluster for a star player (43 receptions for 453 yards), Provo's role in the offense when involved cannot be underestimated. Provo creates mismatches with anyone who covers him due to his physicality. At 6'4" and 249 pounds, the Orange tight end is big enough to run over anyone, and several times this year, both linebackers and cornerbacks have found themselves flat on their backs after a Provo shoulder to their chest.

However, in recent weeks, Provo has not seen much action within the red zone. Eliminating the Rhode Island game where Provo had only one catch for four yards, Provo is averaging over 65 yards a game and one touchdown every seven catches. During Syracuse's three-game skid, Provo has only averaged 42.3 yards a game and has one touchdown in 15 receptions.

The simple answer is for Ryan Nassib to target Provo more, but it is not that simple. Coming off the line, Provo will more than likely be limited to flat routes, as rushers are getting to Nassib with ease. It is the job of the coaching staff, specifically offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, to use more packages that have Provo in a mismatch with a corner or linebacker on the edge.

If Syracuse wants to make a bowl game, and now that is looking increasingly more difficult, Provo and the rest of the Syracuse offense are going to have to kick it into high gear. 

I had to wait a few days to write this due to the sheer amount of frustration I felt as a fan after this game.

The Syracuse Orange was a team that has had relatively high expectations for this season (at least high by the standards of Orange football in the last decade) and it is very close to the point where anyone could call this season a missed opportunity in program rebuilding.

South Florida was in a similar, if not worse situation coming into this game. Having not won in Big East play this season after their opening weekend win in South Bend, the Bulls hit the panic button this week and B.J. Daniels responded.

Daniels torched the Syracuse defense through the air and the ground, showing Syracuse's overall weakness against versatile quarterbacks. Daniels finished the day with 254 yards in the air and ran for another 117 to account for 75 percent of the Bulls' total offensive yards.

The unfortunate part of this for Syracuse was that the defense was the best unit on the team. The linebackers Dan Vaughn, Marquis Spurrill and Dyshawn Davis accounted for eight tackles, but were constantly out of position with South Florida's misdirection offensive game.

Phillip Thomas led all players with 10 total tacklers and was all over the field. Daniels avoided throwing near the ball hawking safety and instead preyed upon the rest of the team.

Ri'Shard Anderson tried everything to avoid Daniels' signature pass of the night, a 43-yard bomb to Andre Davis that led to South Florida score immediately after Syracuse's first score cut the lead to Bulls' lead to three.

For the rest of the night, Daniels would have no issues controlling the pace and game against the Orange defense so the offense needed to step up and play. The defense gave the offense opportunities to gain momentum back all throughout the second half.

And once again, for the third straight week, the Syracuse offense left much to be desired.

The play-calling was once again mystifying as the Orange did not attempt a pass until their eighth play of the game, and when they did Nassib looked off with his accuracy and the offensive line allowed Nassib to be sacked.

What was most frustrating was that the Orange offense, unlike in past weeks, had opportunities to make things work for them.

Twice in the fourth quarter, Syracuse was on the doorstep of the end zone with a chance to cut the Bulls' lead and twice they failed.

The first time, the Orange made it to the USF 2-yard line to open the fourth. The Bull's clogged the middle on Syracuse runs and a botched play on fourth led to Nassib pitching the ball forward to Becket Wales, who watched the ball bounce off his fingertips.

The agony would only continue for the Orange after driving down to the South Florida 17 and watching Alec Lemon inexplicably dropping a touchdown pass that looked like a Lemon was trying to play defense.

Nassib eventually stopped trying to throw the ball altogether and accounted for 45 rushing yards before his minus 15 yards of sacks were added into the equation.

A huge gripe of all fans at the game was the officiating. The officials called, or missed, blatantly wrong penalties against the Orange. On a play were Anderson fell over a Bulls receiver who had tripped, the referees called a late pass interference call that kept alive a touchdown drive.

Even worse, when Jeremiah Kobena called for a fair catch late in the third, a USF player clearly grabbed Kobena by the jersey while running passed him and the referees called no foul. If that penalty had been enforced, the Orange would have started the drive on the USF 34.

Overall, this game was the epitome of the Orange's three game Big East skid: inconsistent defense against the run, secondary issues disrupting the pass game, sputtering offense behind baffling play calling and an overall flat performance that leaves fans disheartened and ready for basketball.

Even with the Big East conference lacking a truly dominant team, Friday night’s showdown between the South Florida Bulls and Syracuse Orangemen will only determine which team will finish in the cellar.

After a 4-0 start to the season that included a victory at Notre Dame, the Bulls have lost four straight games in conference play and are the only team in the Big East without a conference victory.

They have lost in every way imaginable—close games, overtime and blowouts. That said, they can become bowl-eligible with two more wins.

The Orange have had an inconsistent season from the start. They defeated West Virginia, a team that was supposed to be the best in the Big East, three weeks ago, but back-to-back losses to Louisville and Connecticut have them fighting for their bowl-game life.

Where:  Carrier Dome in Syracuse, New York

When: Friday, Nov. 11 at 8:00 p.m. EST

Watch: ESPN2; ESPN3.com

Spread: South Florida (-3.5)

This spread does not make any sense at all. I know that South Florida has played its last three opponents extremely close, losing by a combined total of 12 points, but they are coming into the game with four straight losses and will be playing on the road.

The Orange, meanwhile, are 4-1 at home in 2011. They have won those four games by an average of 11 points, though that number is skewed because of their 49-23 drubbing of West Virginia three weeks ago.

Either way, there is no reason for South Florida to be favored in this game. That is not to say that this team can’t win, but they have done nothing to warrant a 3.5-point spread.

Over/Under: 51.5

Considering the struggles that both teams have had in recent weeks, that number seems a little high.

South Florida’s offense has been one of the better units in the country this season. They are in the top 40 in passing yards per game (266.9), rushing yards (199.8) and points scored (32.5).

Syracuse’s offense has not been effective this season.

There have been moments when they have shined, but overall they are one of the worst in the country. Considering that this game is at the Carrier Dome, perhaps they will come out with a little extra motivation.

South Florida Injury Report

Out: CB Richard Dixon (Knee), DB Ernie Tabuteau (Back), OL Tony Kibler (Suspended), DT Todd Chandler (Academics) and WR Sterling Griffin (Ankle).

Questionable: DT Demi Thompson (Back), WR Terrence Mitchell (Concussion), WR Stephen Bravo-Brown (Ankle), FB Chris Breit (Shoulder), TE Isaac Virgin (Shoulder) and FB Armando Sanchez (Ankle).

Probable: TE Reshard Cliett (Ankle).

Syracuse Injury Report

Out: WR Marcus Sales (Suspension), RB Prince Tyson-Gulley (Collarbone), T Sean Hickey (Knee) and QB Jonny Miller (Suspension).

Questionable: WR Kyle Foste (Lower Body).

BCS/Top-25 Poll Implications

Syracuse still has an outside shot at a Big East championship. There are a lot of things that would have to go right in order for that to happen, considering that this team only has one conference win, but if they win out and a few other teams go on losing streaks, they will make it to their first BCS game.

South Florida needs a win just for morale, because four-game losing streaks in conference play tend to take a toll on your mental toughness.

Keys To a South Florida Win

When the Bulls were winning games, the offense was putting up over 45 points per game. They need to find that kind of production again, because if they aren’t scoring they aren’t going to win.

The defense is good enough to hold down an opponent long enough until the offense scores, but they can’t hold it for four quarters. Plus, to ask anyone to pitch a shutout is unfair.

Junior quarterback B.J. Daniels has had three games with over 300 yards passing, and the team is 2-1 in those games. He needs to establish a rhythm early to get his confidence up and ease the burden on the running game.

If he gets going, the rest will take care of itself.

Keys To a Syracuse Win

The Orange have had three games this season in which they have scored over 30 points. They are 3-0 in those games. When they fall under that threshold, though, their record is just 2-4.

That tells me two things.

First, the defense is not good enough to make plays on a consistent basis to bail the offense out on days they struggle. Secondly, the offense is only strong when it goes up against a defense that is really bad or that they know really well.

The offense has to get big plays early to get the crowd into it, and the defense has to put pressure on B.J. Daniels to force him into making mistakes.

Prediction

South Florida’s conference struggles will continue, and they will fall to 0-5 against a Syracuse team that is hungry and wants to become eligible for a bowl game.

Syracuse 24, South Florida 17 

Syracuse and South Florida are currently at the bottom of the Big East standings, but Syracuse can become bowl eligible with a win against the Bulls on Friday.

After an impressive 49-23 win over West Virginia, Syracuse has lost two straight games. Will they end their losing streak against South Florida this week?

Let's look at everything you need to know about this exciting matchup.

Where: Carrier Dome, Syracuse, New York

When: Friday, Nov. 11 at 8:00 p.m. EST

Watch: ESPN2

Live Stream: ESPN3.com

Listen: For Syracuse stations, click here. For South Florida, click here.

Betting Line: South Florida by 3.5 (via USA Today)

South Florida has scored 32.7 points per game this season and certainly is capable of playing well offensively. This spread is sort of a toss-up because both teams have been inconsistent this season.

Key storyline

Syracuse has a chance to finish the season strong with a win against South Florida and become bowl eligible.

After a few poor football seasons recently at Syracuse, they are heading in the right direction, and a win against the Bulls would really help their season.

Who might not play for South Florida

Terrence Mitchell (wide receiver) is questionable for Friday's game with a concussion.

Who might not play for Syracuse

Kyle Foster (wide receiver) is questionable for the game with a lower body injury.

BCS/Top 25 implications

Neither Syracuse nor South Florida will make a BCS bowl game this season, and neither is close to making it into the top 25 any time soon.

Syracuse player to watch

Quarterback Ryan Nassib has 1,960 yards passing with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions this season, and is capable of putting up a ton of points on any given night.

South Florida player to watch

Quarterback BJ Daniels is a good player and is an exciting player to watch for a USF team averaging more than 30 points per game this season.

Key Matchup

The Syracuse defensive line has to beat the USF offensive line and get in the backfield to win this game. Daniels is a quality quarterback who can beat Syracuse if he has enough time in the pocket to find the open man.

On the hot seat

USF coach Skip Holtz may not be on the hot seat already, but if he loses this game to a team the Bulls are capable of beating his seat will get a bit warmer. A loss would put USF under .500 for the season.

Prediction: South Florida wins 24-17

On the strength of its passing game behind Daniels, South Florida will beat a struggling Syracuse team on Friday.

So here we are, two weeks after I told everyone to buy their Orange Bowl tickets and sunscreen. Get on StubHub and sell those puppies and start looking up flights for balmy St. Petersburg!

Maybe.

Right now, with the current Big East standings, Syracuse has to win at least one more game to be bowl eligible. The best chance for a win is against Big East-winless USF this Friday at the Carrier Dome. Cincinnati looks like the favorite and Pitt is better (on paper) than Louisville and UConn on a talent level, so wins against these teams looks doubtful.

If that is what transpires, Syracuse would finish 2-5 within the Big East, good for sixth place and an automatic birth to the Beef O' Brady bowl, right? Due to the craziness of the BCS and the fickleness of Notre Dame, no.

Under the current format, Notre Dame enters the Big East pool of bowl eligible teams with seven wins. With six wins and remaining games against Wake Forrest, Boston College and Stanford, the Irish do not have a cakewalk schedule, but they could very well finish 8-4 leaving no one surprised.

That being said, Notre Dame would more than likely push Syracuse out of the Big East bowl pool and into BCS limbo. More than likely, with the lack of non BCS conference teams qualifying for bowls this season (there is a chance there will be more bowl slots than eligible teams) Syracuse may get a Big East rematch in the Beef O' Brady Bowl.

In a real zinger, Syracuse could even play in the New Mexico Bowl, due to the lack of Mountain West Conference teams that are currently Bowl Eligible thanks to Boise State more than likely earning a BCS bowl spot.

However, keep the sunscreen. The safe bet is that the Beef O' Brady Bowl will take Syracuse in some fashion and Syracuse can fight to win this beauty of a trophy.