Key Returners: Chris Wright (13.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg), Marcus Johnson (11.8 ppg), and Chris Johnson (5.2 rpg)
Top Newcomer: Matt Kavanaugh
Strengths:
With 14 players returning from last year’s team, the Flyers are far and away the favorites in the A-10. While not explosive, they’ve bought into Coach Brian Gregory’s system. Their style of play would suit them well in the Big East or Big Ten as they prefer to grind out games. Their opponents shot less than 40 percent and were held to just 61 points-per-game last season. The way the Flyers guard translates to any conference in America and it will pay huge dividends for them this season.
Weakness:
The Flyers were almost as dreadful offensively as their opponents were last season. Shooting only 42 percent as a team, the Flyers let a lot teams hang around in games which should have been easy victories. Their ineptness was put on full blast in the second-round NCAA tournament match-up with Kansas. The Flyers scored just 43 points on their way to a loss in a game they were never really in. Repeating the same offensive performance this season won’t get them any further.
Outlook:
The Flyers will be the top team in the A-10 this season and will challenge Ohio State for the top spot in the state. With the guys they have returning and the way they defend, this team can make a legitimate run at the second weekend of the Big Dance.
Dayton Is Class of Atlantic 10, But Richmond and Charlotte Could Surprise
Jul 19, 2009
The Atlantic 10 saw a drain of talent in the offseason as 10 of the 15 players that made up the top three postseason teams in the league have left for the NBA or graduated. Traditional powers Xavier, St. Joesph's, Rhode Island, and Temple all took serious hits as each lost an all-league performer.
The one league contender from 2009 that returned the majority of its core roster will be a legitimate candidate to reach the Elite Eight in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. Dayton lost just one starter and fourth most productive player on the team, Charles Little.
The Flyers won't be challenged at the top of the league by the usual suspects—Xavier, St. Joe's, Rhode Island, and Temple—but rather by three up-and-coming programs, each will a different story.
Charlotte didn't live up to lofty preseason expectations in 2009 but returns a roster full of solid A-10 talent. They also bring in a much-hyped recruiting class as well as an impact transfer.
Richmond also disappointed a bit last season, but played the year without potential all-conference center Dan Geriot. The Spiders return the majority of their roster to support Geriot in the team's quest for an Atlantic-10 Championship.
La Salle has only had two winning seasons in Atlantic 10 history, but they've both come in the past four seasons. With only two role players gone, star slasher Rodney Green returning, and stud freshman center Aaric Murray suiting up for the Explorers, La Salle will be a legitimate contender.
Team by team capsules, projections, and all-league teams after the jump.
The Best of the Best
1. Dayton Stands Alone at the Top
Coach Brian Gregory has given the Flyers the look of a major conference team with the recruitment of stud center Matt Kavanaugh who helps make Dayton one of the longest and most talented teams in the Atlantic 10.
The Flyers won't have any trouble pushing teams around in the paint with a half a dozen players 6'8'' or taller likely to see time in the rotation.
Stud forward Chris Wright will provide the majority of the post scoring with returning starting center Kurt Huelsman and freshman Matt Kavanaugh always providing a reliable wingman to clean up Wright's misses on the glass.
Coach Gregory's backcourt won't provide a lot of offensive pop, but the team's top trio of guards Rob Lowery, Marcus Johnson, and London Warren are the reason the Flyers are by far the league's best defensive team.
Dayton routinely flustered superior offensive teams into abysmal performances. Ranked teams like Marquette, West Virginia, and Xavier all fell victim to the Flyers' scrappy, tough defense.
Few teams in the Atlantic 10 have as much talent or as much size as the Flyers and none have both nor do any play as solid defense as Dayton. And that's why Dayton will fly atop the standings in 2010.
2. The League Might Catch a Case of Arachnophobia with the Rise of the Spiders
Richmond is going to be sneaky good. The Spiders have shooters, they've got size, and they certainly have depth. Guards David Gonzalvez and Kevin Anderson will certainly challenge Dayton's defensive minded backcourt as Anderson made the league's second team and Gonzalvez was an honorable mention.
Richmond's backcourt duo didn't have a dominant low post presence to help keep the focus off them in 2009, but they still produced. This year, if Dan Geriot can return to his 2008 form after a knee injury, Richmond could have three players named to some level of an all-league team.
The Spiders also have the 6'10'' Justin Harper and 6'11'' Josh Duinker (pronounced dunker) to fill out its frontcourt.
The only question mark for coach Chris Mooney is defense. The Spiders were a below-average defensive team in 2009 despite their size and talent.
But in 2008 when Dan Geriot anchored the center of the floor, Richmond was one of the best defensive teams in the league. Now that Geriot is back, Mooney's club might be a solid team on both ends of the floor.
3. La Salle Will Use NBA Talent in Quest for A-10 Championship
One potential NBA prospect will be a senior, the other will be a freshman. The rest of the team in between will provide their support. With the graduation of Temple's Dionte Christmas, La Salle now has the league's best slasher in Rodney Green who will be one of the top candidates for player of the year.
Arguably the league's best overall recruit and without a doubt best incoming center, Aaric Murray will create a dominant one-two punch with Green. Murray somehow slipped out of the grasps of Big East teams Villanova and West Virginia where he could have potentially started.
La Salle returns a tremendous amount of size and played above average defense in 2009 for an Atlantic 10 team. The Explorers lack depth so one injury, suspension, or under-performing player could severely inhibit what could be La Salle's best season ever in the Atlantic 10.
4. Xavier Must Rely on Freshmen to Challenge for A-10 Title
If a traditional power is going to rely on freshmen to try to win a league title, this is the year to do it with 12 of the league's top 20 players gone. Unfortunately for Xavier, three of those 12 players belonged to the Musketeers in 2009.
B.J. Raymond and C.J. Anderson are out of eligibility and junior forward Derrick Brown bolted for the NBA.
Headed to the Queen City to fill their shoes are guards Brian Walsh and Mark Lyons as well as stud forward Jeff Robinson. Walsh and Lyons are both red-shirt freshmen who have gotten the chance to learn Xavier's system for a year. They'll team up several budding stars to create a roster chalk full of potential and youth.
Guard Terrell Halloway is on the fast track to stardom and sophomore Kenny Frease had a decent freshman campaign after being one of the most decorated recruits in Xavier history.
The Musketeers also welcome in transfer Jordan Crawford who if you haven't heard dunked on LeBron James so hard that James won't let the world see the slam.
5. 2010 is a Chance for Redemption for Charlotte
The 49ers were a trendy sleeper pick for the league title last season, but coach Bobby Lutz's team fell flat on its face. This season, Charlotte simply has too much talent to find itself in the bottom half of the league again.
Charlotte only returns three starters and loses its top player LaMont Mack, but the 49ers gained much more than they lost. Coach Lutz brings in a former Boston College starter Shamari Spears. The bigger haul of players comes with recruits as three of the top 10 incoming freshmen belong to Lutz.
They are all listed as power forwards, but Chris Braswell—the 58th rated player by Scout Hoops, KJ Sherrill, and Gohkan Sirin will give the 49ers one of the deepest frontcourts in a mid-major league full of major-conference size.
The incoming quartet will compliment the 49ers' returning backcourt to give Charlotte one of the most complete rosters in the league.
Coach Lutz will need to make sure his newcomers commit to defense as the 49ers struggled at times defending their basket in 2009. The pop on offense should always be there, but without at least an average defense, Charlotte won't stand a chance to win the title.
6. Duquesne Loses Star, but Returns the Rest
All-League Guard Aaron Jackson is gone, but the rest of the roster returns. The Dukes have several players that showed they can provide a scoring punch, but the star power that so many of the top teams in the league have won't exist in Pittsburgh in 2010.
Bill Clark and Damian Saunders will provide a nice outside scoring threat from the three and four positions on the floor. Jason Duty had a limited role in the offensive last season, but was incredibly productive when he called upon.
Duquense will lack size in a league filled with trees. The Dukes are the conference's smallest teams and one of the shortest teams in the entire country.
7. Temple
Dionte Christmas dominated the scoring column during his tenure in Philadelphia, but he's gone and with his departure goes the Owls' chance to compete in the A-10 in 2010.
Lavoy Allen gives Temple some star power, but overall this roster lacks an abundance of talent. Ryan Brooks will prove to be a solid second option and point guard Juan Fernandez has a chance to be a star down the road.
Coach Fran Dunphy brings in one of the weakest recruiting classes in the league so Temple won't be getting any reinforcements.
8. Rhode Island
The Rams are much like the Owls in the sense they've lost a franchise player. Jimmy Baron Sr. will coach the 2010 Rams without his son Jimmy Baron Jr. torching the nets for three-pointer after three-pointer. Rhode Island also lost power forward Kahiem Seawright who actually played a larger role in the offense than Baron Jr.
There is some solid returning talent. Keith Cothran and Delroy James are nice players, but should not have to be the top options for an Atlantic-10 team. Incoming point guard Akeem Richmond could help fill the shoes of Baron Jr., but overall the offensive outlook for the Rams is bleak.
9. UMass
Coach Derek Kellogg is beginning to bring in the players needed for his dribble-drive motion offense he helped John Calipari develop in Memphis. But entering his second season at UMass, there has already been a lot of roster overturn making it difficult for Kellogg to establish a rhythm in Amhearst.
Point guard David Gibbs was one of the league's best recruits in 2009, but disappointed during the season. He's back and could be primed for a breakout season in Kellogg's offense. Also in the backcourt will be one of the league's most prolific scorers, Ricky Harris.
The wild card will be freshman wing Terrell Vinson. He'll likely be fighting La Salle's Aaric Murray for Freshman of the Year honors. If he produces to his potential, Vinson can carry the Minutemen much higher than a ninth place finish.
10. St. Joesph's
Coach Phil Martelli won't have the reigning Conference Player of the Year Ahmad Nivins or stud point guard Tasheed Carr who have both graduated. Left on the roster is one of the league's best defensive players Garrett Williamson as well as two-guard Darrin Govens who will provide the scoring punch.
Govens isn't a very efficient offensive player and the team's only returning player that is an above average in offensive efficiency is swing man Idris Hilliard, the third and final returning starter.
St. Joe's has two decent point guard prospects coming in, but they won't be enough to fill the major holes in Martelli's squad.
11. Saint Bonaventure
The Bonnies return four key components a 15-15 club, but those players were terribly inefficient on the offensive end of the floor. One more year together means the quartet led by Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews should be better, but still not good enough to crack the top 10 in the Atlantic 10.
12. Fordham
Editor's note: Fordham was originally ranked 14th, but Jio Fontan, an all-league freshman will return to the Rams after originally stating he planned to transfer.
Fordham returns three key players including one of the league's best sophomores, Jio Fontan. He's likely one year away from being the league's best point guard, but if this program is going to turn around it will be on the shoulders on Fontan.
Fontan will have a strong supporting guard in incoming freshman Lance Brown who will have a strong chance to give the Rams all-league freshman for two consecutive seasons.
13. George Washington
A few years ago, GWU was the team to beat in the A-10. But now the program has fallen on hard times and things won't get much better for Colonials. Damian Hollis could be one of the league's breakout players, but after Hollis the Colonials don't have much talent.
14. Saint Louis
Rick Majerus could find himself on the hot-seat quite soon. The Billikens have one returning player that could make a real impact on any other A-10 squad (except Fordham). Kwamain Mitchell made the league's all-freshman team last season and could emerge as a star as a sophomore, but he'll be relying on freshmen to provide support.
Majerus's deep freshmen class must perform or else his job could be in jeopardy.
Any corrections, updates, or additional comments, email Jameson at jamesonfleming@gmail.com.
This preview was last updated on July 21st.
Battle Tested: Flyers Still Fighting For Respect
Mar 21, 2009
As a Dayton Flyers fan, I'm sure you could imagine the excitement that I felt in the moments following the Flyers' victory over sixth seeded West Virginia Friday afternoon.
It was the Flyers' first tournament win in almost 20 years.
Finally, the Dayton fans can celebrate. For the city of Dayton, it's about time! It was a year where auto plants closed and the unemployment level continued to rise. Forbes magazine even named Dayton one of its 10 fastest dying cities.
Finally, a bright spot. Finally, another reason to yell out..."WE are U.D!"
In the midst of all my joy, I then made the mistake of tuning into ESPN's Sportscenter, where instead of congratulating the Flyers on a tough win, the analyst proceeded to both downgrade West Virginia, while simultaneously kissing the overrated asses of the higher-ranked Big East Teams.
Talk about a buzz-kill.
Instead of hearing about Dayton's Chris Wright soaring over the Mountaineers for thunderous dunks, Digger Phelps just wanted to talk about how West Virginia beat themselves. He also wanted to talk about how Dayton needs to continuously beat Big East opponents if they want to be taken seriously.
You're right Digger, all Dayton's done against Big East competition the last three years is beat Louisville (twice), beat Pitt (by 25), beat Marquette(by 14) and now West Virginia (by eight, in THE BIG DANCE)!
So, feeling a bit robbed of my special Sportscenter moment, I turn to Dick Vitale to stick up for the little guy. His response, "Let's face reality here, West Virginia's just the seventh seed in the Big East conference!"
Well, thank you Dick!
Oh well.
Don't worry about a thing, Flyers fans. Simply enjoy the journey of the tourney, and let those so-called professionals continue to argue over their favorite overrated seeds.
As for the Dayton Flyers themselves, just remember you've got the whole city of Dayton rooting for you. Who knows, maybe along the way you'll make Digger & Dick proud, and beat a few Big East teams...again.
Mega March Madness Marathon: Hour No. 6
Mar 20, 2009
What happens when a sports fan takes in every minute of Friday’s NCAA first-round action with not one, but two full-size televisions in his living room? The answer is Mega March Madness Marathon 2009, a Bleacher Report series that will be published approximately every hour by columnist Tim Cary. The action continues in hour number six.
5:00 And-one for ETSU!
5:01 It’s a five-point play in Dayton. Bucs miss the free throw, grab the rebound, kick it to the wing, and knock down a triple.
5:01 Panthers' lead is down to two, and they promptly turn it over. Coach Jamie Dixon can’t believe it.
5:02 Great half-court execution by Pitt to get the ball to Blair on the block. Bucket and the foul; Panthers up four going to the media timeout.
5:03 Missouri’s still up 64-50; looks like the Tigers will succeed in keeping the Big Red at bay throughout the second half.
5:04 Meanwhile in Minneapolis, the Flyers are still up four. I think I should just copy that sentence to the computer’s clipboard and paste it into my column every few minutes. Dayton has had a four-point lead for what seems like forever; at this point, I’m guessing that when the Wright Brothers were heading toward Kitty Hawk, they flipped on their Model T radio to find out that the UD basketball team was up four on West Virginia.
5:05 Speaking of Flyers, Chris Wright just threw down a big-time dunk to stretch the UD lead to a massive…five points.
5:06 Here’s another sentence we can cut and paste. “Offensive rebound for the Buccaneers.” I know the pressure that comes with the fact a No. 1 seed has never lost, but at this point, Pitt still has to be feeling good about its chances—especially after giving up 19 offensive boards and turning it over a zillion times.
5:08 Terrible offensive possession for Pitt, resulting in a 23-foot straightaway jumper that comes up short. Blair commits a foul going for the rebound…
5:09 …and ETSU misses the front end. Riddle of the day: how many free throws can a 16-seed miss and still be competitive?
5:09 Pitt with a huge three to stretch the margin to eight. Will the Panthers escape?
5:10 ETSU answers right back with a hoop and a timeout. Six-point game. Sixty-five seconds left.
5:10 Panthers get two free throws, Blair grabs a rebound after the ETSU miss, and the Bucs are finally going to be out of chances.
5:12 Think that 50 percent mark at the foul line is going to haunt the Buccaneers during the offseason?
5:14 Dayton’s up seven in the final minute now. After leading by four for the whole game, this is like a blowout.
5:14 The Pitt/ETSU game is finally over. Panthers win it 72-62, their first double-digit lead of the entire game. Morehead State gets one more chance for the 16 seeds tonight before the top dogs go a perfect 100-0 in first-round games.
5:17 WVU with a turnover. Not their best move, especially with 27 seconds to play in a six-point game.
5:19 Dayton gets both free throws, and the lead is eight.
5:20 Final score: UD 68, WVU 60. So long, Bob Huggins.
5:21 In regularly scheduled news, this will officially continue the bloodbath of my 2009 bracket. After turning in a respectable but not brilliant 12-4 showing yesterday, I’ve already lost four games this afternoon. That makes me 16-8 with eight games left tonight. Translation: ouch.
5:23 And I know my wife’s grandma picked Dayton. Double ouch.
5:25 Time to get online and find out how many other games she’s out-guessed me in so far. This shorter segment wraps up the afternoon session: see you in hour number seven as the evening games begin and the 2009 marathon continues. Thanks for reading!
West Virginia-Dayton: 2009 NCAA Tournament Picks ATS, March 20
Mar 18, 2009
No. 11 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers
NCAA Tournament First Round—Midwest Region Friday, March 20—3:00 PM EST on CBS
Preview
The Dayton Flyers received an at-large bid to the Big Dance for their first trip since 2004. They had a very successful season, going 2-1 against Top 25 teams, and 9-4 against the RPI Top 100.
West Virginia has had a successful season as well, making it to the semifinals of the Big East Tournament before losing in overtime to Syracuse. They finished the season tied for seventh in the Big East, but they only went 4-9 against the Top 25 overall.
The Flyers gained a ton of national attention early this season when they took down Marquette at the end of November. Before the calendar turned, they went 12-1, and in their first ten games in 2009 they went 9-1.
They found their success by having a well-rounded team: sophomore forward Chris Wright was named to the All A-10 Second Team, junior guard Marcus Johnson was given honorable mention, freshman guard-forward Chris Johnson was named to the All-Rookie Team, and junior guard London Warren was named to the All-Defensive Team.
But the Mountaineers are a different beast than their fallen Big East brethren. While they have a quality backcourt, their star player resides in the frontcourt. They have two non-Top 25 losses this season—Kentucky and Cincinnati—and the rest have come from ranked opponents, including five losses to teams that were the top team at one point this season.
West Virginia's squad also features individuals who have had their own success this season—Da'Sean Butler was named to the All-Big East Second Team, Alex Ruoff was named on the Honorable Mention, and Devin Ebanks was named to the Big East All-Rookie Team.
The Mountaineers made it to the Sweet Sixteen last season before losing to Xavier in overtime, a team Dayton knows very well. This should be a great March college hoops game between two teams that received at-large bids.
Like them or not, the Dayton Flyers seem to be on their way to lacing up their dancing shoes for the first time since the 2005 season. The Flyers are currently sitting in first place in the Atlantic 10 with a healthy 23-3 record going into this Saturdays game at St. Louis.
They have significant wins over both Marquette, and division rival Xavier on their resume (both still ranked in the top 20), as well as being undefeated at the University of Dayton arena this season.
Dayton Coach Brian Gregory (a former assistant of Tom Izzo's at Michigan State when the Spartans won the National championship), continues to stress to his team the importance of staying focused, noting that being ranked in the top 25 is good, (which the Flyers are for the first time this season #25) but being ranked in the top 25 isn't going to play defense for them.
However, it's the Flyers three losses that continue to both puzzle the Flyer faithful, and add serious steam to Dayton's detractors. The Flyers found themselves looking ahead not too long ago and fell hard to Atlantic Ten cellar dweller Charlotte. The 9 - 15 49ers dominated Dayton in what had to be the Flyers most pathetic performance of the season. The ill timed loss kept Dayton from taking advantage of division foe Xavier's surprise loss to Dusquesne the night before.
The Flyers also opened league play with a stunning loss to the University of Massachusetts that left fans struggling not to think about the late season collapse that rendered the Flyers very NIT worthy last season.
The Flyers only other loss was to Creighton, but unlike most i do not consider this a bad loss. Creighton is closing in on first in the Missouri Valley Conference as we speak so I move to strike the Creighton loss from the dreaded list of "BAD LOSSES" which is the term most connected with the three losses out of the Flyers first 26 games so far.
The key to Dayton's success this year has no doubt been their dominating defense. The Flyers held Xavier to their lowest point total of the season, and Dayton is 9-0 this season in games decided by five points or less.
Dayton definitely does not win pretty. In fact, sometimes they win just plain old ugly, but they win, and in the end winning is the name of the game. So barring a complete collapse within their final games of the season, go right ahead and finish lacing up those shoes Flyers. In March, when you find yourself bustin' a move in the biggest dance around, just remember what you've already learned from the regular season, and what the Flyer fans already know: No matter how ugly, ...Just Win!
Does Dayton Deserve an NCAA Tourney Bid? Survey Says...No
Feb 11, 2009
Some people might suggest I've had it out for the Dayton Flyers (21-3, 7-2 Atlantic Ten) all year long. In a way, they would be right. I think that for much of the year they have been one of the most overrated, unnecessarily-praised teams in the land.
The whole premise of the "Dayton bandwagon" was a single victory over Marquette back in November, when Marquette was ranked No. 15. Currently, Marquette is ranked No. 10, though they may not stay there long after back-to-back losses to South Florida and Villanova.
The win was a good win, but the résumé becomes extraordinarily thin after the game with the Warriors.
Dayton hovered at the edge of the AP and Coaches' Poll rankings due to a string of victories in an incredibly weak conference, punctuated by painful losses to Creighton of the MVC (by 18 points) and the No. 10 team in their conference, Massachusetts (8-13, 3-5 Atlantic Ten). UMass handled them easily, 75-62.
Worse yet, the Flyers are playing terribly in the vast majority of their conference games (and many of their non-conference games), and they have been eking out victories against teams they should have been blowing away.
They beat Wofford (11-11, 7-6 Southern) by three.
They edged SEC weakling Auburn by just one.
Four-point wins were all the Flyers could muster at MAC foe Akron and at home against the CAA's George Mason (which, by the way, is probably their next-best victory after Marquette).
In conference play, Dayton hung on for a 72-71 victory over the worst team in the A-10, Fordham (3-17, 1-7 A-10).
The Flyers performed "twice as well" with a two-point win over Fordham's basement roommate, George Washington (7-13, 1-7 A-10).
Add in a one-point home win over St. Louis (14-9, 5-4 A-10) and a two-point victory at LaSalle (12-10, 3-5 A-10) to boot. There's "winning ugly," which isn't always a bad thing, but this is simply "playing ugly."
This terrible basketball led to a gaudy record of 21-2 and prognostications of a seven or eight seed in March before the Flyers' poor play finally caught up with them last Sunday.
Ahead by six in the second half against a poor Charlotte (8-14, 2-6) team, Dayton squandered every opportunity they had and lost by 13. Dayton doubled Charlotte's turnover total, and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game, including coaching.
The Flyers managed to lose by double digits despite shooting .500 from the field and .538 from behind the arc, which shows just how awful they were otherwise. In fact, Dayton shot better from the field than they did from the free throw line (.450, 9 of 20).
Dayton has been one of the worst free throw shooting teams all year, and the game against the 49ers was no exception.
If a team is 21-3, they need more than one quality win from three months ago to make the Big Dance. Their losses are bad enough, but some of their wins are even worse.
They have two games left against Xavier and one with Duquesne. If they lose all three of those games, there probably won't be any talk of March "bubbles," but if they lose even two of three, I'd seriously question whether they deserve to be discussed.
That's assuming, of course, that they run the table on the rest of their A-10 opponents, something that is far from a lock for the Flyers.
If the tournament started today, this team should be excluded because, to put it plainly, there are far more deserving at-large teams who actually decided to play someone in December or at least challenge themselves with a significantly better non-conference slate.
Unless someone pulls an upset in the conference tournament, don't be surprised to see just one Atlantic 10 team in the NCAA tournament this year.
Let Dayton try their hand at the NIT. They'll see better competition there than they have for the majority of the season, anyway.
Dayton Flyers Among Top 25?
Feb 10, 2009
The University of Dayton Flyers were 21-2 and on the verge of entering the Associated Press and USA Today polls for the first time this week. The only thing in their way was a visit to the lowly 49ers in Charlotte on Sunday.
Of course, Dayton lost badly.
But, had they won, would the Flyers have been deserving of a national ranking?
On the one hand, the Flyers are still 21-3 and have one of the best records in the NCAA. Only Oklahoma, North Carolina, Connecticut, Butler, and Utah State have better overall records at this point.
However, so few of those victories were over quality teams and the Flyers have yet to face Xavier.
College basketball teams, especially near tournament time, are generally evaluated on two criteria: quality wins and bad losses. Dayton's lone quality win was against then-No. 22 Marquette.
Dayton also can claim three respectable wins over No. 44 Temple, No. 57 George Mason, and No. 67 St. Joseph's.
However, the Flyers had three bad losses: No. 145 UMass, No. 71 Creighton, and now No. 192 Charlotte. All three losses were on the road, but they were all by double digits.
It seems unfair to judge the Flyers' entire season on just seven games. It seems necessary to create a new category: near losses. These games are contests decided by a single possession, lucky shot, or a few more seconds.
For the Flyers, that category includes one-point victories over Auburn, Fordham, and St. Louis; two-point decisions over George Washington and La Salle; and a three-point win against Wofford.
Close wins come in two varieties: easy victories that are misrepresented by final scores and games that are very close at the final horn. Maybe the losing team hits a couple of lucky threes at the end of the game. Or maybe the winning team is just the last team to have possession and an opportunity to score.
Many of Dayton's games this season have been of the latter kind.
These six close wins emphasize the fragility of Dayton's overall record. The Flyers could easily have six losses.
What's the point?
UD's NCAA hopes are suspended from two anchors: an impressive-looking record and the victory over Marquette.
Regardless of Marquette's future success, that victory will be a distant memory of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, particularly if the Flyers continue to lose spectacularly against undermatched squads.
And no, Dayton is not one of the best 25 squads in the NCAA.
Why the University of Dayton Does Not Play Top-25 Teams: Exposing the Myths
Jan 17, 2009
When the University of Dayton released its men's basketball schedule before this season, many around the city bemoaned the lack of big names or stellar matchups. The subject was re-ignited recently on talk radio in response to demands for a Wright State-Dayton rivalry.
Flyer boosters will tell you that Wright State is UD's little brother and Dayton will gain nothing from playing a weak, non-conference opponent. UD's new athletic director said, "We really have to focus much more on a national presence for our sports programs.
"What we're really going to do is focus on those teams that are getting NCAA at-large opportunities and conferences getting at-large opportunities and games that give us an opportunity for national and regional television exposure. That is our focus."
So the schedule should be peppered with traditional powers, right? Well, it's not. The Flyers non-conference schedule is was highlighted by Marquette, George Mason, Auburn, and Creighton. At best, two of these teams will reach the Big Dance.
Another Dayton myth: Big-name schools refuse to schedule a powerful mid-major like Dayton because they might lose. It is true; Dayton did win games last season against nationally-ranked Louisville and Pittsburgh and this season at Marquette.
That said, its still a stretch to say that Auburn and Creighton are the "biggest" programs brave enough to face the University of Dayton.
Examine mid-major powers Butler, BYU, Davidson, Gonzaga, Marquette, Memphis, Utah, and fellow A-10 powerhouse Xavier. (These are teams UD would like to think are its peers.)
In 2008-'09, Butler scheduled: Xavier, OSU, Drake, Northwestern, Bradley, and UAB
BYU: Arizona State, Wake Forest, and Utah State
Davidson: Duke, Oklahoma, Winthrop, Purdue, West Virginia, and NC State
Gonzaga: Oklahoma State, Memphis, Maryland, Indiana, Arizona, UConn, Washington State, and Tennessee twice.
Marquette: Tennessee, Dayton, NC State, and Wisconsin
Memphis: Xavier, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Gonzaga
Utah: Mississippi, Oklahoma, California, Oregon, LSU and Gonzaga
Those are pretty impressive schedules for mostly small, mostly private schools that lack funding from major football programs.
But this is an arbitrary eye-ball test! Two or three big games cannot reflect an entire season. If only there was an impartial number to assess every team's schedule.
The strengths of schedule (SOS) of the respective teams: 47, 77, 62, 23, 69, 14, 7, and eight. Yes, tiny, Atlantic-10 rival Xavier has the eighth-ranked schedule in the nation. Dayton in No. 232. (These numbers were found at CBSsports.com RPI.)
Dayton's brass and fans may call the perennial powers cowards, but it's obvious who the true scheduling coward is.
UD's neighbor, Wright State, has an RPI of 137 and a SOS 173rd. Wright State's last NCAA tournament appearance was in 2007. The Flyers reached March Madness most recently in 2004.
UD's schedule isn't all bad. It can be a fun, rainy day activity called "find the school." Grab a map. Your teams are Wofford, Bethune-Cookman, Mercer, Coppin State, and George Mason. Remember to time yourself!
Dayton-Fordham: Flyers Continue to Struggle, Narrowly Defeat Rams
Jan 15, 2009
The Dayton Flyers returned home and hoped to bounce back against a 2-12 Rams team after a disappointing loss at UMass. Instead, the Flyers shot lights-out—as in they might have shot better had the lights actually been out.
Fordham led from 3-2 until nearly halftime, when UD sat on a three-point lead. The Rams outplayed the Flyers in virtually every aspect. Fordham had more blocks and higher shooting percentages through 20 minutes.
UD missed seven free throws in the first half and shot 38 percent from the floor. Many of its free throws were painful to watch.
Chris Wright, UD's best player, was virtually silent. He was shut out in the first half and scored just seven points in the game.
Immediately after the break, the Flyers were able to enlarge their three-point lead into an 11-point advantage. Then, a Fordham timeout proved pivotal.
The Rams emerged from the huddle and drained three consecutive NBA-range threes. Suddenly, the visitors were within range to tie or take the lead.
Poor defense left the paint unguarded, and Fordham penetrated for an easy two points...until Charles Little flew in and blocked the lay-up off the glass. Dayton would then go up by seven. It was the biggest play of the game—or so we thought.
Rob Lowry fouled the three-point shooter, and Fordham coolly sank all three from the charity stripe. UD missed two foul shots. With 12 seconds left, Fordham again nailed a long trey to cut the deficit to one.
Then, UD committed a turnover on the inbound pass. Fordham earned two more clutch points to take the lead, their first of the half.
Finally, and inexplicably, the Fordham defense allowed Lowry to dribble his way down the court and score an easy two. The Rams never got another opportunity.
The final score: trouble at the University of Dayton. There is no way to dress up this victory as a gritty conference victory. In the last two games, UD has lost on the road to a then 5-8 UMass and survived a one-point home game with a two-win Fordham squad.
Something is clearly afoot, and I would not be surprised by another midseason letdown by the Flyers.
