Illinois vs. Purdue: Spread Info, Line, BCS Impact and Predictions
Although the No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini's National Championship dreams were dashed with a loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes last week, they will still be in the thick of the Big Ten race when they travel to take on the 3-3 Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday.
Prior to the loss to Ohio State, Illinois was 6-0 and among the nation's biggest surprises. With so many undefeated teams ahead of them it was unlikely that they would make it to the national championship game, but it was still a possibility.
The Fighting Illini still may have roses in their future, though, but they must first defeat an up-and-down Purdue squad. The Boilermakers have certainly looked impressive some weeks, but can just as easily look terrible as evidenced by their losses to Rice and Notre Dame.
Illinois is rightfully favored, but if the good Boilermakers decide to show up, then we should have a very entertaining game on our hands.
Where: Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind.
When: Saturday, Oct. 22 at 12 p.m. EDT
Watch: ESPN2/ESPN3
Spread: Illinois (-4)
Purdue hasn't played many good teams this season, but when they have the results have been mixed. The Boilermakers lost by just five to a solid Penn State squad last week, but was thrashed by four touchdowns by Notre Dame a couple weeks prior.
Illinois has played plenty of close games in its own right regardless of opponent, but the Illini are clearly the better team in this game, and I think they should be able to cover the modest four-point spread.
Over/Under: 47
Both Purdue and Illinois are very inconsistent offensively, so it's almost impossible to tell how they will fare this week. The Fighting Illini's defense has been very solid this year, though, so I think they should be able to hold down the Boilermakers pretty well. Because of that I would go with the under.
Illinois Key Injuries
Questionable: OL Corey Lewis (knee)
Probable: RB Jason Ford (shoulder), WR Darius Millines (foot), DB Terry Hawthorne (foot)
Purdue Key Injuries
Doubtful: DL Robert Maci (foot)
Questionable: OL Justin Kitchens (shoulder)
BCS/Top 25 Poll Implications
At 3-3 with a loss to Rice, Purdue likely won't be sniffing the BCS rankings or the Top 25 polls unless they beat Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks. That is highly unlikely, but beating the Fighting Illini on Saturday would be a good start.
Illinois was ranked No. 16 last week, but has since fallen to No. 23 after losing to the Buckeyes. If the Illini want to stay in the Top 25 and remain in contention for the Big Ten Championship, then Purdue is the type of team that they absolutely must beat.
Keys to Illinois Win
If Illinois is to win this game then it pretty much all lies on the arm and legs of quarterback Nate Scheelhaase. He is the player that makes the Illini offense go as he leads the team in passing yards (1,407), rushing yards (396) and total touchdowns (15).
Scheelhaase will also need help from his No. 1 target in the passing game, A.J. Jenkins. Through seven games Jenkins incredibly has 895 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. The Illini will have to remain stout on defense as well, where they rank 17th in the nation in points allowed. Purdue averages over 30 points per game.
Keys to Purdue Win
For Purdue to pull off the big upset, it will need to continue to be well-balanced on offense. Caleb TerBush has had his moments at quarterback while the running back combination of Ralph Bolden and Akeem Shavers has been very effective, as they both average over five yards per carry.
Purdue has also been pretty solid defensively and that will have to continue. Perhaps the most important thing the defense will have to do is contain Scheelhaase in the pocket. He is perfectly capable of escaping and making something out of nothing, so the Boilermakers need to keep a spy on him at all times.
Prediction
Illinois 28, Purdue 14