Illinois Fighting Illini Football

With a tough 17-14 win over a solid Arizona State football team this past Saturday, the Fighting Illini football team is starting to make people take notice.

They now find themselves somewhere they haven’t been in three years: ranked within the Top 25.

The Illini are currently ranked 24^th in the newest Top 25 AP poll, and they have the orange and blue nation excited about football again.

The win over ASU also marked the first win for the Illini over a ranked opponent since the Rose Bowl season of 2007. The victory also gave them a 3-0 record—a feat they haven't been able to accomplish since 2001.

So the question is, are they for real? We’ll see.

Illinois now has a legitimate shot of starting the season with a 6-0 record. Yes, I said 6-0.

They finish up their non-conference schedule next Saturday against Western Michigan at home, which, unless they have a big letdown, should put them at 4-0 heading into the Big Ten schedule.

On October 1^st the Illini will open up Big Ten play with another home game—their fifth in a row to start the season—against inner-state rival Northwestern. This is definitely a winnable game, but it won’t be easy, as Pat Fitzgerald will have his Wildcats fired up and ready to go against the Illini.

The following week, the Illini will have their first road contest of the year as they travel to Bloomington, Indiana to take on the Hoosiers, which isn’t exactly the mecca of college football.  In fact, the Illini couldn’t ask for a better place for their first road game. Indiana is not a very good football team, but the Illini still have to take care of business.

So it would seem that Illinois has a good shot at being 6-0 heading into their October 15^th matchup against Ohio State in Champaign. Wouldn't that be interesting? With the way Ohio State has looked thus far, it’s not a stretch to say that the Illini could win that game as well.

Then Illinois has Purdue on the road which is another winnable game.

After Purdue, the Illini will travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State, but have the Nittany Lions really impressed anyone?

Following that, they will play Michigan at home, and the Illini will be looking for payback after last year's triple overtime 67-65 loss to the Wolverines.

Dare I say it, but could Illinois possibly be 10-0 heading into a showdown with Wisconsin on November 19 for the Leaders Division title?

Well, I don't know if I would count on that just yet, but things are setting up pretty nicely for the boys from Champaign.

As most of the country focused on two games in Florida Saturday night (Oklahoma at Florida State, Ohio State at Miami), Illinois was quietly winning their first game against a ranked team since 2007. When Nathan Scheelhaase hit receiver A.J. Jenkins in the end zone with less than 10 minutes left following an Arizona State turnover, Illinois grabbed the lead for good.

With this home victory, Illinois stands at 3–0 alongside Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan at the top of the Big Ten standings. While this start is a good sign for a coach who seemed to be on the hot seat entering the season, the best magic may be yet to come for Ron Zook and his Illini.

There are at least five reasons why Wisconsin should quickly refocus their attention on Illinois as their primary competition in the Leaders division race. These five reasons explain just why the surprise of 2011 will be Illinois rather than Nebraska or some other Big Ten team.

1. All or Nothing History

Since 2001, Illinois has finished with a winning record only twice. Both times, the Illini made a BCS bowl. Although both of those attempts ended in losses to LSU in the 2002 Sugar Bowl and to USC in the 2008 Rose Bowl, at least Illinois made the biggest stage in college football.

Every other season, Illinois has finished with a losing record, except for last year when a 6-6 record netted a bowl appearance in the Texas Bowl. Considering Zook led the Illini to a dominant win in an essentially road environment versus Baylor, signs looked good for continued improvement this season.

Once again, Illinois is breaking out all at once, and the bounces could go their way just like in 2001 and 2007. Illinois does not have a history of competing well and falling short. When Illinois is good, they are really good.

Ron Zook was backed against the hot seat once before in 2007 after struggling in his first two seasons at Champaign. Then, he rode a solid defense and a sophomore quarterback Juice Williams to nine wins and the Rose Bowl. Zook once again has a good sophomore quarterback and will be looking to knock himself off the hot seat.

And this team has the defense to make the unexpected run to the top once again. Which brings us to point No. 2...

2. The Illini Defense is Strong and Opportunistic

Vic Koenning immediately improved the defense in his first season at Illinois last year, dropping the yards per game from 403 to 351 and points by a touchdown from 2009 to 23.5 points per game. When put in combination with an offense that is now putting up a consistent 30 points per game, that type of defense is enough to carry the Illini to a lot of wins.

Most projected a small step backwards in defense this year with five new starters, four of which were on the line and at the linebacker level. However, the new starters have shown in three games that they can handle changing schemes from Koenning while producing a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks when necessary.

Arizona State's quarterback Brock Osweiler entered last Saturday's game in the top 10 nationally in passing efficiency after carving up a solid Missouri defense in Week 2. Yet Koenning came up with a gameplan to apply constant pressure to young Osweiler to prevent him from winning the game with his throwing ability, and the gameplan worked.

The Illini defensive front produced six sacks and 12 tackles for loss, which led to all three of Osweiler's turnovers. Sophomore linebacker Jonathan Brown had a coming out party with 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and an interception.

If the defense is good enough to stop Arizona State, then the unit is good enough to beat most of the offenses in the Big Ten, especially considering the struggles of teams like Michigan State and Ohio State on that side of the ball.  Which leads nicely to point No. 3...

3. The Leaders Division is Wide Open

Illinois was projected to scuffle at the bottom of the division this season alongside Indiana and Purdue. Those projections were correct for the two Indiana schools, as Purdue struggles with injuries again and Indiana has a lot of rebuilding to do under new coach Kevin Wilson. However, the projection for Illinois appears dead wrong.

More importantly, two of the three teams projected to battle it out for the division title have shown huge weaknesses in the first quarter of the season. Penn State cannot find a quarterback that will play consistently decent, let alone good. The ineptitude of the Nittany Lion offense was on full display against Alabama, where Penn State stayed close only because of their solid defense.

Similarly, Ohio State struggled to generate points against Toledo and then were absolutely blasted by an athletic Miami defense this past weekend. Ohio State also has a quarterback conundrum, as senior Joe Bauserman has now thrown up two bad performances in a row. When an offense generates 13 passing yards in the first 59 minutes of a game, that shows every other team exactly how to stop the offense (e.g., stop the run).

With Ohio State and Penn State falling out of the picture thanks to inept offenses, the door is open for Illinois to compete. The Illini have a defense perhaps on par with Penn State and Ohio State, but they are a better team thanks to having a real offense. The key to that offense is the fourth point...

4. Nathan Scheelhaase is Ready to Shine

Scheelhaase made some rookie mistakes in his first season last year, but he was able to lean on conference MVP running back Mikel Leshoure to do most of the heavy lifting. Nonetheless, Scheelhaase added 868 rushing yards of his own to go with 1,825 passing yards.

Perhaps the best sign of progress was that Scheelhaase only threw eight interceptions while accounting for 22 total touchdowns with his legs and his arm. That kind of production was more than enough to win six games, and he has clearly improved this season.

Scheelhaase is on pace to throw for more than 2,000 yards this season, but his bigger contributions in the running game are what will make the Illinois offense tick. Running back Jason Ford and Scheelhaase have led the rushing attack, which has rolled up 223 yards per game so far. As long as Illinois continues to generate over 200 yards per game on the ground, opposing defenses will be open for play action passes, which Scheelhaase has proven he can deliver.

The first time a quarterback faces a set of college defenses, the unusual opposition and defensive looks can undermine the quarterback's natural ability to make the best read. With one game against most of the teams he will face in the Big Ten this season under his belt, Scheelhaase will be a much more effective runner while limiting the amount of big hits he takes.

Assuming that Scheelhaase stays healthy, he should be the difference between being a contender with Wisconsin or struggling like Penn State and Ohio State.  Which takes us to the final point:

5. The Schedule is Highly Favorable

In my Big Ten preview a few weeks ago, I identified the schedule as a primary reason Illinois could be a dark horse conference title contender. Now more than ever, that schedule looks like the ticket to Indianapolis for the inaugural Big Ten Championship.

Illinois misses three of the top four teams in the Legends division, as only Northwestern, Minnesota and Michigan are the cross-over games. The road schedule is the easiest in the conference, with Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota joining the only moderately tough game at Penn State. Unless the Nittany Lions find an offense, there should be no excuse for losing a game on the road.

Which leads to the home schedule, which features the rivalry against Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Northwestern is always tough, but this will be Dan Persa's first game back, which is not a good situation for a shaky Wildcats team. Ohio State has always struggled with good Illinois teams, and even though the Buckeyes will be back at full strength, this is a winnable game.

Michigan and Wisconsin come on back to back November weekends following the bye, and Illinois should be able to figure out how to stop the shootout with Michigan this time around. By the time Nov. 19 rolls around, Illinois should be ready for the Badgers. Wisconsin probably has a better team, but they have not been tested, especially not on the road. If Illinois can stuff the run and keep the home crowd momentum behind them, Illinois can shock the Badgers to steal the division.

The writing is on the wall for the Illini, and this is the right time for them to take another step forward. Illinois has all the look and the intangibles that usually lead to a conference championship, so why not 2011? Get ready, Illinois fans, this should be a wild ride if nothing else in the first year of the Leaders division.

It has to be very frustrating to be an Illinois fan. After the Rose Bowl berth of 2007, things seemed like they were definitely on the right track, and the school has been recruiting well. The results just haven’t been there, though.

They made a bowl game last year for the first time since the Rose Bowl, and they only finished 6-6 in the regular season. In short, this should be a much better team than it has been recently.

The pressure is on for them to be much better, and the conditions set up well for them in 2011. If they can’t make another bowl game and improve on their performance of last year with this team and this schedule, then there is really something wrong.

Coach

Ron Zook is bad at coaching football. That’s a harsh statement to make, but it is hard to argue against it. In six years at Illinois he has made just two bowl games, and he has a dismal 28-45 record overall.

He’s never gotten any momentum going despite recruiting solidly—he’s had a few stars over the years—and playing the team at home or away doesn’t strike fear into the elite teams in the conference.

Zook was on the hot seat in a big way heading into last season, but the bowl berth saved him. His seat will grow very hot this year if the team can’t capitalize on a soft early schedule to get off to a strong start.

Zook has trouble keeping his teams focused late in games and is far from the most strategically gifted coach in the country. I truly don’t believe Illinois will ever reach its potential until it makes a coaching change.

Offense

The offense returns eight starters, and QB Nathan Scheelhaase is a sophomore with a year of starting experience, so he is positioned to take a step forward this year. That’s all good news for this offense, and it seems reasonable to be optimistic.

The one thing that isn’t ideal is that running back Mikel Leshoure opted to enter the draft after a monstrous season instead of return for his season year. His loss will be felt as much as any player in the Big Ten—his team’s fortunes from game to game were heavily tied to how Leshoure played.

There are a number of returning running backs that could pick up some of the slack, but none have nearly the star potential that Leshoure had. Last year the offense was heavily built around the running game, and that took a lot of pressure off Scheelhaase. Now he is going to be forced to carry more of the offensive load. He’ll have plenty of veteran support to help him do that, but the success of the offense rides on his shoulders.

Defense

This unit had the potential to be extremely good this year. Unfortunately, it lost its two best players last year to the draft when they also decided to leave early. Defensive end Corey Liuget was selected in the first round, and linebacker Martez Wilson was a third-round choice; both will be sorely missed on this defense this year.

Four of the front seven are gone, including the top three sack specialists. Last year that pass rush was strong, and that helped the Illini to be a strong turnover team.

The secondary is experienced and largely intact, but it was only a moderate secondary last year, so even if they improve with age, they aren’t likely to be a great unit.

The ability for the front seven to regenerate and recharge will determine what this team does defensively. Last year the defense faded badly in the last four regular season games, so the defense also needs to work on stamina and on being less predictable as time goes on. 

2011 Illinois Fighting Illini Football Schedule

Illinois plays its first five games at home, and many of them could certainly be tougher, so they are well positioned to succeed. The Illini have the real potential to start at 5-1 with those home games and the road trip to Indiana, and they must do that to position themselves for the tougher second half. They get to play Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin at home, but all three will be tough. That leaves a tough trip to Penn State and potentially easier trips to Purdue and Minnesota.

2011 Illinois Fighting Illini College Football Odds

Here’s all you need to know about how seriously the oddsmakers are taking this team right now. Bodog has odds for 48 individual teams to win the BCS championship listed, and Illinois is not among them. They are part of the "field" at 20/1.

5Dimes does have the Illini listed, but at huge odds of 210/1. 5Dimes also lists them as the ninth of 12 teams to win the Big Ten at 28/1 and as a distant fourth choice to win the horrifically named Big Ten Leaders Division at 11/1. 

2011 Illinois Fighting Illini Football Predictions

This is going to be one of those teams that are good enough to beat some bad teams, but not good enough to beat any good ones. I expect them to start 4-2 or 5-1, with Arizona State being the only early opponent that I am not confident they can beat.

In the second half, though, I think 2-4 is more likely, with Purdue and Minnesota being the only opponents that they stand a good chance to beat. Barring a real surprise—which I am not anticipating—this team seems to be on track to finishing 6-6 or 7-5, with another meaningless bowl as their reward. I would really hope that isn’t enough for Zook to keep his job.

This season the Illinois football team will be a fairly young team compared to years past.  Everyone knows about quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, running back Jason Ford, defensive tackle Akeem Spence and the offensive line, but here I will be talking about five freshmen who will make an immediate impact this upcoming season.

The obvious one is 4-star (Scout.com) tight end Jon Davis from Middletown, Ky.  Davis was coach Ron Zook's top recruit from this past recruiting class and the only 4-star recruit.  Davis chose Kentucky originally and then de-committed on the final day and signed with the Illini.  

Jon Davis will have to compete with sophomore tight end Evan Wilson for playing time.  Some of Davis' strengths are his downfield threat, quickness off of the line and his speed.  An area of improvement for Davis is his blocking ability, which may keep him off the field in favor of Wilson, who can block well.  I still expect Davis to be a key to Scheelhaase and the passing game this season.

The second freshman impact player will be 3-star (Scout.com) middle linebacker Ralph Cooper from Winnsboro, S.C.  Cooper was Zook's top linebacker in the 2011 class.  With the loss of Martez Wilson to the NFL, Cooper should get valuable playing time this year as the primary backup and should be a boost for the Illini.

The third freshman who will make an impact this season is 3-star (Scout.com) running back Josh Ferguson from Joliet, Ill.  Ferguson was the top running back that signed with Illinois.  With Illinois using a two-back system, depending on what Ferguson does at Camp Rantoul next month will determine if he will be the No. 2 back behind senior Jason Ford.  Ferguson's strengths are his breakaway speed, cutback ability and his vision.  One area of improvement is tackle-breaking ability.

The fourth freshman is 3-star (Scout.com) safety Nick North from Hollywood, Fla.  North is entering his freshman season at Illinois and the Illini could have one of the deeper secondaries in the Big Ten this season.  North will more than likely be a backup unless there is an injury.

The fifth freshman who will make an impact this season is 3-star (Scout.com) defensive tackle Chris Jones from Jacksonville, Fla.  Jones is looking to make an immediate impact at Illinois and will more than likely be one of the main backups for the Illini.  Jones is 6'5", 260 lbs. and runs a 5.1 40.  I think that Jones may actually be the sleeper of the group.

This is not one of Zook's best classes or even one of his deepest, but there are always recruits that perform better than their rating and better than the top players.  College recruiting is nowhere near perfect.