Illinois Football: Time for the Illini Defense to Wake Up
Sep 12, 2012
Defense was supposed to be the strength of this year's Illinois Fighting Illini Football team.
Coming off a 2011 campaign where they finished seventh in the nation in total defense, Illinois had high hopes for this year's unit as they returned seven starters.
Despite playing without two of those starters—Supo Sanni and Steve Hull—in the season opener against Western Michigan, the Illini defense looked pretty solid, but that was certainly not the case last weekend in Tempe against Arizona State.
Even with the return of Hull, who was injured again during the game, the Illinois defense was no match for the ASU offense.
The Illini were sliced and diced in the desert night as they surrendered 510 yards of total offense and really couldn't slow the Sun Devils down at all in a 45-14 loss.
This certainly was a wake up call for coach Tim Beckman and his staff as they most certainly have some work to do if they want to compete in the Big Ten this year.
Beckman and many of the defensive players have been chalking up the bad defensive effort against ASU to a few "miscommunications" due to the new scheme and coaching staff. Now I'm no expert by any means, but I do believe that communication is a fairly big part of the game.
Like I said, sounds like they have some work ahead of them.
The good news is that Illinois has two weeks to straighten things out before they start their Big Ten schedule on September 29th against Penn State.
They will face the always powerful Buccaneers of Charleston Southern University this weekend in Champaign followed by another powerhouse in Louisiana Tech next weekend.
I'm not sure how much good it will do for Illinois to play two inferior opponents prior to starting the Big Ten season, but they should get two wins.
I mean Charleston Southern, really?
They are 0-2 and have been outscored 80-24 by the Citadel and Jacksonville University—how much are you really going to gain by beating up on them?
Nevertheless, that's what's on the schedule so Illinois needs to go out and dominate defensively in order to restore some confidence in themselves and some faith in their fans.
There's no doubt that they have the pieces to be one of the better defensive units in the conference—if not the country—but they've got to get things in order.
With a front seven that is stacked with guys like Michael Buchanan, Akeem Spence, Glenn Foster, Jonathan Brown and Ashante Williams and a secondary that contains seniors Terry Hawthorne and Justin Green, there is no reason that this Illini defense should struggle this season—there's just too much talent there.
Again it is a new coaching staff and a new scheme, but that's what training camp is for. Miscommunication and missed assignments shouldn't carry over too far into the season and hopefully for the Illini's sake they won't.
Hopefully what Illini fans saw last week was just a mirage in the desert and the real Illini defense will be back on the field for the rest of the season because things are going to get a lot tougher down the road.
The Big Ten schedule isn't far off and for the Illini it's not a favorable schedule either. They have to travel to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State—a far cry from playing Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech at home.
At this point all the Illini can do is regroup and come out with a strong effort Saturday to get back on track.
It should be an easy one against Charleston Southern.
After all, Charleston should be pretty tired after playing in their high school game on Friday night.
Everybody knows that Michigan's performance against Air Force was less than impressive. Most people also know that the Big Ten had a very rough day on Saturday...
Illinois Fighting Illini's Luke Butkus Takes Center Stage in Showdown with ASU
Sep 7, 2012
One of head coach Tim Beckman’s most popular moves in his short tenure at Illinois has been bringing back Illini-great Luke Butkus to direct his offensive line.
As a three-year starter and anchor of a Big Ten championship team at Illinois, Butkus knows what it takes to compete at the highest level. While his last name alone was enough to put smiles on faces throughout Illini nation, his “Oskee-wow-wow” tweets and affinity for Camp Rantoul bordered on grounds for retiring his number and naming him head coach-in-waiting.
The guy genuinely loves Illinois and his passion for the both the university and the football program shine through every time he speaks. All summer, reporters flocked to Butkus for stories of his playing days and quotes about his desire to take this team back to competing for Big Ten championships.
Summer—when hope springs eternal with every football program—is officially over, and as we approach Saturday's desert duel, the honeymoon surrounding Butkus’ return could come to a screeching halt. After an uninspiring performance from his unit in the opener, Butkus knows Week 2 represents a critical test for both he and his unit.
Butkus took an unorthodox approach to preparing his line this summer.
The first-year coach played seniors Graham Pocic and Hugh Thornton all over the line, while rotating others in and out throughout fall practice. It was a calculated gamble, as conventional wisdom says a starting five needs weeks, if not months, to gel as a unit.
Being who he is, Butkus got the benefit of the doubt from both fans and the media. Though the sample size is limited, the early returns are not overly impressive.
In the opening week, starting running backs Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young—whom Beckman referred to as “outstanding”—carried the football 22 times for a combined 40 yards from scrimmage.
Just in case you forgot, the Illini played Western Michigan last weekend. While the Mid-American Conference teams are known for being stingy early-season opponents for Big Ten programs, they’re not known for being a dominant force in the trenches.
When Illini fans are skeptical of a line prospect, you’ll often hear these fans say “he’s more of a MAC-type,” meaning, he doesn’t have the size, skill and athleticism to play in the Big Ten. What’s disconcerting is that those “MAC-types” were pounding the Big Ten program off the line of scrimmage at Memorial Stadium on Saturday. That speaks to a unit that played harder and understood their assignments better that Butkus’.
Fortunately for Butkus and his maulers, the Illini won 24-7, and wins have been too few and far between in Champaign to criticize much of anything following a 17-point victory.
Saturday night will be a different story.
Defensive coordinator Tim Banks’ talented unit is sure to play well, but it won’t win this game without contributions from the Illinois offense.
If you haven’t heard, 27-game starter Nate Scheelhaase is banged up and questionable for Saturday night. Although the general consensus is that he plays on Saturday, he certainly won’t be able to make plays with his feet the way fans are accustomed to seeing. His ability to evade the pass rush will surely be affected by his limited mobility.
It will be absolutely essential that the Illini move the football on the ground, and regardless of who plays quarterback, they can’t win this football game without protecting him and creating lanes for their sophomore running backs. A few big plays from both Scheelhaase and the defense were enough to beat Western Michigan, but the team will need Butkus’ boys to carry their weight if the Illini expect to escape Sun Devil Stadium with a win.
Butkus and Co. are well aware of this; they know the onus is on them to up the ante going into Week 2. Earlier this week, senior center Graham Pocic told FightingIllini.com that the line's performance left something to be desired: “As a group, we weren’t really happy with the way we played….we left a lot of points on the field.”
Both Pocic and Butkus seemed to be on the same page in terms of what the line needs to do to correct their errors. When asked if he would tweak his scheme this week, a clearly frustrated Butkus made it abundantly clear scheme had nothing to do with the opening-week performance:
“No,” he insisted “they need to come off the ball. They need not to think so much and just run off the football. That’s how you create movement in this game, you run, your feet, and we need to do that better.” (via tayandj.podbean.com)
While the Illini offensive line isn’t littered with NFL prospects, they are by no means devoid of talent. Pocic will have a chance to play on Sundays and Hugh Thornton has the ability to compete for an NFL roster spot in training camp next fall. Michael Heitz and Simon Cvijanovic bring considerable experience to the table, and Butkus has highly regarded youngsters in Ted Karras, Pat Flavin and Alex Hill to mold into his type of players.
This is a team that went 1-3 on the road last year. The Illini lost to lesser squads in Purdue and Minnesota and let a game they controlled throughout escape in Happy Valley.
What does that mean? It means Illinois is not good enough to win on the road without every group doing their part, including the offensive line.
Butkus has made it clear what he expects from his unit on Saturday, and the players appear to be hearing that message. The question is, can they execute it?
Like it or not, the verdict will be read on a national stage this weekend. While it would be interesting to see how Illini fans respond to Butkus if his unit continues to under perform, I’m fine with not having to find out.
Missouri vs. Georgia and College Football Week 2's Biggest Matchups to Watch
Sep 7, 2012
College football is starting to pick up speed as teams begin to show who will be contenders and pretenders in the 2012 season.
Last weekend things got rolling, and with an exciting slate of games this weekend, drifting too far from the TV is not advised.
Missouri and Georgia headline a list of intriguing matchups in Week 2. The Tigers will make their SEC debut in a must-see battle with the Bulldogs.
This game will feature two of the most explosive offenses in all of college football. Missouri quarterback James Franklin has a plethora of weapons to utilize this season, including running back Kendial Lawrence and a high-octane receiving corp that features T.J. Moe and freshman sensation Dorial Green-Beckham.
Georgia has a potent offense as well, including quarterback Aaron Murray and Biletnikoff Award candidate Tavarres King. The SEC is known for their grind-it-out defensive battles. This one, however, will be more like a track meet.
Here are the other can't-miss matchups of Week 2.
Florida at Texas A&M
The Florida Gators are trying to remove the sour taste of their 7-6 record last season. Head coach Will Muschamp called his team soft after a loss to Florida State in 2011. Now the Gators' toughness will be tested against the Aggies at one of the toughest venues in all of college football.
Florida is coming off a 27-14 victory against Bowling Green in which running back Mike Gillislee ran for a career-high 148 yards and two touchdowns. However, this week's matchup will focus on both team's quarterbacks.
Sophomore Jeff Driskel will play center for the Gators. How he handles the raucous environment of Kyle Field will be key to Florida's chances. For the Aggies, redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel will make his first career start, taking over for star quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Inexperience at the quarterback position will make this an interesting battle. Texas A&M hopes to get solid play from Manziel in what will be the program's debut in the SEC.
Illinois at Arizona State
Ron Zook and Dennis Erickson paced the sidelines when the Illini defeated the Sun Devils 17-14 in Champaign last season. Now the former head coaches will be watching this game from their couches as both teams went 1-5 in their last six games in 2011.
This season the squads are looking for a fresh start. Arizona State's offense exploded for 63 points in their season-opener against Northern Arizona. Speedster Marion Grice rushed for 107 yards and three touchdowns for the Sun Devils.
The Illini had an impressive defensive performance in their 24-7 win against Western Michigan. Defensive end Michael Buchanan registered two tackles for loss, including a sack and an interception.
The senior pass-rusher will look to pressure the Sun Devils' sophomore quarterback Taylor Kelly. The Illini heckled Brock Osweiler in last season's matchup, totaling six sacks.
Illini quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase's status is still uncertain after suffering an ankle injury last week. However, it appears likely that he will play as his dual-threat presence is key to the Illini's success.
Expect this one to go down to the wire in an exciting primetime game on ESPN.
Illinois vs. Arizona State: TV Schedule, Live Stream, Radio, Game Time and More
Sep 4, 2012
In a matchup between two teams whose seasons got off to good starts in Week 1, the Illinois Fighting Illini will travel out west to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 showdown.
The Illini played a methodical game against Western Michigan in Week 1 to walk away with a 24-7 victory. They will need to open things up on the offensive side of the ball if they want to hang in there with a good Arizona State team.
The Sun Devils used a cupcake game against Northern Arizona to make their mark on the 2012 season. There is nothing wrong with that—just ask Oklahoma State—but the competition will get markedly better from this point on.
Questionable: TE Max Smith (Back); WR Kyle Middlebrooks (Shoulder); DT Corey Adams (Back)
What's At Stake?
For Illinois, 2012 is all about a fresh start. New head coach Tim Beckman is trying to establish a foundation on which he can build this program into at least a consistent bowl contender. Games against a team like Arizona State, which has a solid reputation, will show the new regime just how far away the Illini are.
Arizona State found its footing against an easy opponent in Week 1. Illinois is not exactly a national power, but will provide more challenges and better athletes than Northern Arizona did. This could easily turn into a trap game for the Sun Devils if they aren't careful.
Illinois Player to Watch: RB Josh Ferguson
With quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase battling a sprained ankle, there is going to be more emphasis on the running game.
Ferguson had a lackluster debut against Western Michigan, with 38 yards on 11 carries. He has to perform far better than that in this game if Illinois is going to hang around long enough to keep it competitive.
Arizona State Player to Watch: QB Taylor Kelly
Last week was quite the debut for Kelly, as he went 15-for-19 with 247 yards and one touchdown. However, It was basically a warm-up game, or the equivalent of an NFL preseason game, as it came against an FCS school.
Kelly threw four passes in his freshman season last year, so he is hardly a seasoned veteran ready to take the next step. This is going to be a developmental season for him, which could have far-reaching ramifications on the Sun Devils' year.
Key Matchup: Illinois QB vs. Arizona State Defense
Illinois could enter this game with a decided disadvantage, since starting quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has a bum ankle.
Whoever is taking snaps for the Illini will have the task of staring the Sun Devils defense in the face. That is not exactly a daunting task, as Arizona State is not known for stopping opponents, though a game against a team with a hobbled quarterback could be what this team needs.
Prediction
As much as I like what Beckman can do in the future, Illinois is still very much in a rebuilding mode. Arizona State is not a national powerhouse, though it is in far better shape right now than the Illini.
Big Ten Football: Illinois Fighting Illini Season Preview 2012
Aug 8, 2012
This is the latest in a series of articles previewing Big Ten football in 2012. A rough schedule of previous and upcoming preview articles is provided at the end of this article.
Overview
Last season was an interesting dichotomy for the Illinois Fighting Illini, as a 6-0 start completely unraveled in an 0-6 finish. The goodwill that Ron Zook had built up in lucking into a Rose Bowl berth in 2007 had evaporated and the six-game losing streak forced him out the door.
Of course, then the Illini drew another struggling 6-6 (6-7 following the conference championship loss) team with a fired head coach in the Fight Hunger Bowl. The Illini restored some pride by winning this awkward game, but beating a weak UCLA team could not erase the pain of blowing all that potential after the 6-0 start and the Top 15 national ranking.
Illinois went out and hired Tim Beckman away from Toledo, where he had led the Rockets to three fairly successful seasons in MAC play. Expect the strong running games of the past to be combined with a spread attack now that Beckman brings the experience from Toledo to the table. Thankfully Beckman inherits a lot of talent and a senior quarterback to adjust to the new schemes.
The offseason was not without controversy, though, as Illinois actively recruited Penn State players on the campus in State College. Where other Big Ten coaches refused to tread, Illinois jumped right in with the feeding frenzy. Although there may be a little black eye on the reputation of Beckman within the league to start, he did pick up a talented freshman lineman Ryan Nowicki by taking the initiative.
With the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes out of the division title chase, could this open the door for the Illini to steal the division away from Wisconsin? Will Beckman be able to avoid the mediocrity of the past few seasons under Zook? Let's jump in.
Offense
After regularly averaging 400 yards per game or more on offense every season since 2007, the 2011 Illini suffered a huge setback despite having seven returning starters. The loss of Mikel LeShoure was felt as Nathan Scheelhaase and Reilly O'Toole both struggled to find a groove in the passing game. The rushing game alone went from 246 yards per game to 172 yards per game.
That led to the eventual six-game slide following the strong 6-0 start. Once teams figured out that they could sit back against the Illini offense and force the unit to be one-dimensional, the underperforming offense failed to put up more than 14 points in any game except against Wisconsin. But the Badgers were giving away points early in that contest.
With seven starters returning again and a new regime to learn on offense, one might expect similar struggles in 2012. However, it is unlikely that the offense will fail to execute as much as they did under Ron Zook.
Although O'Toole will probably continue to see playing time at quarterback, the main burden will still be on junior QB Scheelhaase to move the chains. He rushed for over 600 yards net last year and passed for over 2,100 more. Unfortunately, his favorite target A.J. Jenkins is now gone.
Which means it will fall to a set of juniors with a lot of experience to pick up the slack for Jenkins. Darius Millines and Spencer Harris will lead the way, but Ryan Lankford will also see a lot of throws from the slot position. The receivers will not be as good without Jenkins, but Scheelhaase should be more accurate in his junior season and that will help significantly.
The offensive line struggled along with the rest of the offense in the back half of 2011, but that had more to do with being injured and banged up than poor play. With Graham Pocic at center and Hugh Thornton over at left guard, the line play should remain strong in 2012. That should help sophomore Donovonn Young push for a 1,000-yard rushing season following splitting time with Jason Ford and Troy Pollard in 2011.
The offense might not get back to 400 yards per game, but there will be no step further back. Illinois will have just enough offense to be competitive in most games.
Defense
Although Illinois struggled on offense more than usual in 2011, the defense was rock solid and put up some of the best numbers in the past decade. The Illini actually held opponents under 20 points per game, a number that would normally be good enough to compete for a conference championship and a BCS bowl.
This year, the defense will adjust schemes and will use a 3-4 defense that may exploit some mismatches between linebackers and offensive linemen. The nose tackle and the defensive line is key to making the 3-4 defense work, and Illinois unexpectedly got Akeem Spence to stay another season to anchor the line.
Although the loss of Whitney Mercilus (16 sacks, nine forced fumbles) will certainly be felt, Glenn Foster and Justin Staples are two seniors who should be able to continue to get into the opposing backfield to disrupt the quarterbacks and running backs.
Speaking of getting into the backfield, two returning linebackers, Jonathan Brown and Michael Buchanan, combined for 13.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss a season ago. Add to that 108 tackles for Brown to lead the team and there is more than enough power in the defensive front seven to make life difficult for Big Ten opponents.
The defensive backfield was the primary driver in the improved numbers a season ago, and only CB Tavon Wilson is gone from the two-deep at these positions. Consequently, Beckman should expect another season with under 175 passing yards given up a game.
Beckman has expressed happiness with the toughness this unit has shown in the first few practices of fall camp. If the Illini continue to generate turnovers and force opposing offenses into unfavorable third-down situations, a much better finish than 2-6 in conference play should be in the cards.
Special teams
Although the offense stumbled down the stretch and the defense was mostly solid, the special teams was the glue that was missing in the 2011 Illini. Derek Dimke was the only bright point in a statistically terrible unit, with 10-12 field goals. However, even Dimke failed the team by missing an important field goal for the tie late against Penn State.
Freshman punter Justin DuVernois struggled to achieve a 35-yard net average on punts, and that number should improve with better coverage. Beckman is committed to putting his best players out there on special teams and that will likely improve the field position bump whenever Illinois has to punt. But a freshman kicker and an inconsistent sophomore punter is still a recipe for disaster.
The return game was even worse than the punting a season ago, as Ryan Lankford averaged a pathetic 1.7 yards per return in 19 returns. Kick returns usually were not much more than 20 yards either, so one has to assume that the numbers will be better this season.
They key is getting some better blocking so that the speedy skill position players have opportunities to make tacklers miss rather than being swarmed. If Illinois can just find mediocrity in special teams, the difference could be monumental in final results when the season is done. This is the most pressing concern, and Beckman is trying to address it head on.
Schedule analysis
The Illini schedule for 2012 looks like this, with predictions on wins and losses in parentheses:
9/1—Western Michigan (loss)
9/8—at Arizona State (win)
9/15—Charleston Southern (win)
9/22—Louisiana Tech (win)
9/29—Penn State (win)
10/6—at Wisconsin (loss)
10/13—at Michigan (loss)
10/27—Indiana (win)
11/3—at Ohio State (loss)
11/10—Minnesota (win)
11/17—Purdue (loss)
11/24—at Northwestern (win)
Projected record: 7-5, 4-4 Big Ten
Season prediction
So the key to the season will be whether or not the young players on special teams can step up for their new coach and play like every play is critical. If that urgency is shown in fall practice and on the field in September, then a winning record is certainly achievable in 2012 conference play.
The good news about the conference schedule is that the home slate is filled with the easier teams. Although I project a close loss against Purdue, do not be surprised if Illinois goes 4-0 at home in conference play. Memorial Stadium with the wind swirling can be a very difficult place to play, especially against a defense this strong.
The bad news is that the road games are brutal. Ohio State was far worse a season ago and won at Illinois, and the back-to-back games at Madison and Ann Arbor are likely the hardest duo of games any team will face this season. If Illinois navigates the first two tricky games of the season with one or two victories, then a bowl game should definitely happen.
You could easily swap the results of the final two games projected above, and also the first two games. However, new head coaches usually end up capping out at seven or eight wins, and that's what I think is most likely with this experienced Illini group. Not quite enough to win a division title, but one win at Madison could change all that (don't hold your breath, Illini fans).
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Thanks for reading! If you have any comments or questions about this or other articles in the 2012 Big Ten football preview series, please contact David on Twitter.
That's it for the preview...thanks for reading and now the season is here!
Big Ten Football Tweets of the Week: Please Sign This Baby, Famous Football Man
Aug 3, 2012
Every Friday on the Big Ten Blog, we'll bring you the best Big Ten-related tweets of the week.
Being a football player is quite a task, even off the field. The stakes are higher on everything you do short of using the bathroom, the public demands unceasing civility, and if you make bad decisions, people are going to know and be vocal about it.
It's a lot to ask of a young man.
In return, though, comes adulation the likes of which we mere mortals cannot fathom. Women (and some men, if it's preferred) throw themselves at the feet of these athletes. People pretend to be them in video games. Even a mere signature—the thing we're used to only giving for credit card receipts and rent checks—turns even the most mundane thing into a treasure.
HE'S SIGNING A DAMN BABY. With any luck, the dad was like, "I'm never washing this baby again."
Speaking of fandom, the great thing about it is that it doesn't adhere to borders or any other man-made divide. Wherever in the world (or space) you go, your fandom goes with you, and that's a thing you can share with whoever else you're with.
Or at least you're supposed to, anyway. Someone in France didn't get that memo, though.
If you wear OSU gear into the Louvre and don't I-O my O-H, I hate you forever. Seriously, that guy. Whoever he was.
The best part? That's genuine betrayal in those words. You don't leave an O-H hanging, no matter where you are, not even the most famous art museum in the world. It doesn't even matterif you're dead. That's how serious this is for Buckeyes.
What? What's the problem here? Michigan might be going to that game, and if you can't see another Ohio State game, you might as well go watch Michigan instead, right?
And lastly, this is a tweet about Penn State football. Not the scandal, not the transfers, not court proceedings or anything bad. It's about a guy who'll be on the field (and probably starting) for Penn State in just four weeks.
Just changed my number. On 9/1/12 vs Ohio U. I will be wearing #1
Feels good to know that even at Penn State, football's coming soon, doesn't it? Feels pretty good.
Penn State Football: OL Ryan Nowicki Transfers to Illinois, Seriously, Illinois?
Aug 2, 2012
The Penn State transfer train keeps churning along, but after the hullabaloo surrounding the coaches' aggressive recruiting tactics came up last week—to the point that Jim Delany had to bring it up in a meeting with coaches and athletic directors prior to Big Ten Media Days on Thursday—one of the last teams anybody expected to see coming up with a transfer from Happy Valley was Illinois, one of the biggest aggressors toward Penn State's players.
And yet, redshirt freshman Ryan Nowicki, an offensive tackle from Glendale, AZ, wants out of Penn State—and he's calling the Illini's number.
It was a matter of when, not if, that red-shirt freshman Ryan Nowicki would transfer from Penn State, and Thursday afternoon became the when, as reports circulated that the offensive lineman has left Penn State, and is headed to Illinois. Nowicki's name has been taken off the official Penn State online roster, and he is the first player to transfer within the Big Ten conference.
The Arizona Republic's Richard Obert was the first to report the news, tweeting "OL Ryan Nowicki just told Illinois coaches he will be playing for them, leaving Penn State."
In terms of immediate impact, this isn't going to affect Penn State very much. Nowicki wasn't on the post-spring two-deeps, and out-of-state guys like him are often susceptible to transfer whenever there's a coaching change at any program, regardless of whether or not the NCAA is currently beating the program senseless with a baseball bat.
And yet the Illinois brand would seem so toxic because of the Illini's tactics that it's no small shock that Nowicki ended up going there. He had listed the Illini as a favorite as of last week, per the Arizona Republic, but Nowicki was also considering other schools that were both closer to home and less of a "not a good look" factor.
Also, remember how graciously Penn State players accepted the departure of Silas Redd to USC? Redd was a guy who meant a lot to the success of the 2012 team; Nowicki probably wasn't. But whereas the support for Redd was near universal, Nowicki doesn't quite have the same level of support from his teammates.
One thing u don't do is Jump from big ten school to another big ten school.
Mr. Morris will likely be upset, then, to learn that incoming freshman tailback Akeel Lynch is deciding between staying at Penn State and transferring to Iowa. That decision's coming by Sunday, according to The Gazette.
So Illinois—who came after Penn State players with all the grace and care of a drunk man pawing anything with long hair at a bar at closing time—gets a transfer from PSU after all. What a world.
Big Ten Breakdown 2012: Illinois Fighting Illini, Part 4, Final Breakdown
Jul 24, 2012
I began by taking a broad overview of the Illinois program, what it has done over the last five years and what that might tell us about what the Illini will do this season.
This week, I'll look at the Fighting Illinis' specialists, recruiting class and schedule, and I'll give a final breakdown and my prediction for Illinois in 2012.
Specialists
Last season, Illinois had lousy special teams.
The place kicker, Derek Dimke, did fine, but he exhausted his eligibility. That leaves a slew of untested, unproven sophomores and freshmen to fill the role. Unfortunately, according to the Big Ten Network's unofficial stats, Illinois placekickers went 1-for-4 in the spring game, missing two field goals and one extra point.
Dimke also had the second-highest touchback percentage in the conference. In other words, he'll be missed.
Meanwhile, the punter returns, but it's questionable whether that's a good thing.
Now-junior Justin DuVernois had the second-worst punting average in the Big Ten—84 out of 94 nationally—with 38.28 yards-per-punt (YPP). This led to his being benched for the final two games in favor of receiver Ryan Lankford, who was nominally better—39.42 YPP.
Currently, DuVernois and Lankford remain the top two punters.
The return game was also an issue. Illinois ranked last in the Big Ten in both punt and kick returns. Nationally, the Illini were last in the country in kickoff returns and third-to-last in punt returns.
Both of Illinois' top punt returners—Lankford and cornerback Terry Hawthorne—are back, as are three experienced kick returners—Hawthorne, utility man Miles Osei and receiver Darius Millines—but both jobs likely belong to Northern Illinois-transfer Tommy Davis (per ESPN).
Davis will be eligible immediately, due to the NCAA graduate transfer rule with which Wisconsin has had recent success. Nobody is going to mistake Davis for Devin Hester, but he should provide a significant upgrade to Illinois' current pool of return men.
Rivals ranked Illinois' class 10th in the Big Ten while Scout ranked it dead last. This is off for the Illini, but that had to be expected during a coaching transition. All things considered, Beckman did a good job of holding onto recruits.
Illinois signed 19 recruits in the class, which was especially heavy in defensive backs/receivers. The Illini signed eight players who could wind up at safety, cornerback or wide receiver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_wZXXAArqE
A freshman who could see immediate playing time is running back Dami Ayoola. As mentioned in the offensive breakdown, Beckman likes to rotate his running backs and, with only two experienced backs, Ayoola has room to make a splash.
Ayoola is listed at 5'10", 201 pounds, which means he is the most physically ready of Illinois' running back recruits. Moreover, he had an impressive offer sheet, though Rivals and Scout only gave him three stars. He chose the Illini over Auburn, Notre Dame, Iowa and Wisconsin, among others.
Indianapolis kicker Ryan Frain will also have a shot to immediately get on the field. As previously mentioned, Illinois has an opening in the kicking department and, when college football programs offer kickers scholarships, they expect immediate returns.
Lastly, Cleveland's Lakeith Walls will come into camp as a 6'3", 185-pound athlete. He could wind up at running back, receiver, in the defensive backfield or as a linebacker if he puts on a lot of weight. Nevertheless, offenses like Beckman's value versatility above all else and, if Walls demonstrates that he can be trusted with the ball, he could see immediate playing time as an offensive utility man.
Schedule
Key
A pound sign (#) indicates must-win for Illinois.
An exclamation point (!) indicates a probable loss.
A dollar sign ($) indicates a swing game.
Games
09/01: Western Michigan Broncos #
09/08: At Arizona State Sun Devils $
09/15: Charleston Southern Buccaneers (FCS) #
09/22: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs #
09/29: Penn State Nittany Lions $
10/06: At Wisconsin Badgers !
10/13: At Michigan Wolverines !
10/20: OPEN
10/27: Indiana Hoosiers #
11/03: At Ohio State Buckeyes !
11/10: Minnesota Golden Gophers #
11/17: Purdue Boilermakers $
11/24: At Northwestern Wildcats $
Best-Case Scenario
9-3
In order for this to happen, Illinois needs:
Nathan Scheelhaasse to figure it out and play with consistency. He doesn't need to be as good as he was during the 6-0 start to 2011. However, he needs to be closer to that than he was during the 0-6 end-of-season slide, and he needs to maintain that level throughout the year.
Playmakers to pop up amongst the running backs and receivers. Scheelhaasse can't do it alone.
Much improved special teams and a defense that takes to its new, less-aggressive philosophy.
Worst-Case Scenario
6-6
In order for this to happen, Illinois needs:
The defensive personnel to have issues with the new philosophy. This won't cause the D to fall apart, but it will leave a potential top-25 scoring defense ranked somewhere in the middle of the conference and the country.
Scheelhaasse to continue to struggle with inconsistency, which leads to a quarterback carousel. This leads to an uncertain, inconsistent offense.
Continued poor special teams play.
The Season Will Be a Success If...
The Illini win seven games and play consistently throughout the season.
With this schedule, seven games is more than realistic.
Arizona State is the only tough out-of-conference contest. Furthermore, ASU returns only four players on each side of the ball and is experiencing its own coaching change (per ESPN). Frankly, if the game were in Champaign, it would be a "must-win" for Illinois.
The Illini conference slate misses two of the three best teams in the Western Division. The conference road slate is a beast, and it is unlikely Illinois will do better than 1-3 on the road. Nevertheless, there are no teams on the conference home slate that can match the Illini player-for-player.
One has to account for the coaching transition, but if Beckman were in his second or third year at the helm, I'd call Illinois one of the two favorites to win the Eastern Division.
As it stands, Illinois is a dark horse, but anything less than seven wins has to be considered a disappointment this season.
My Prediction
As an Iowa Hawkeye fan, I've been dreading the (inevitable) firing of Ron Zook. Though Zook was a great recruiter, he was such a lousy coach that it made it easy for Iowa to poach recruits from the Land of Lincoln.
Now, Zook is gone, and that means a new head man will have a chance to wake the sleeping giant that is the University of Illinois football program.
Time will tell if Beckman is the coach to do it, but he is a substantial step up from the Zooker. He's put together a strong, young, hungry staff, and he has a nice pool of talent with which to work.
Add to that a favorable schedule, and Beckman will step into a nice situation.
I have Illinois going 8-4 in Beckman's first season, with the Illini getting swept in their conference road slate. That includes an upset loss to Northwestern which, according to my prognostications, will be playing for its postseason life on Nov. 24.
That said, I have Illinois as my Big Ten dark horse pick. If the Illini can win the games they're supposed to—that includes Northwestern—and can pull an unlikely road upset against Wisconsin, they will have a chance of representing the East in the Big Ten Conference Championship.
This, of course, is predicated on Ohio State being out of the race and Penn State being ineligible and heading for a rough first year (aside from all the off-the-field issues) for first-year head coach Bill O'Brien.
Either way, at 8-4, Illinois is my surprise pick in the Big Ten this season.
Check out past installments of 2012 Big Ten Breakdown, beginning with the most recent, the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Big Ten Breakdown 2012: Illinois Fighting Illini, Part 3, Defense
Jul 17, 2012
I began by taking a broad overview of the Illinois program, what it has done over the last five years and what that might tell us about what the Illini will do this season.
This week, I'll look at the 2012 Illinois defense.
Defensive Overview
2011 scoring defense: 19.6 PPG (fifth in the conference)
Total defense: 286.2 YPG (second)
Rushing defense: 3.13 YPC (second)
Passing efficiency allowed: 117.91 (third)
Average scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: 7.0
Best scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: Fifth (2007, 2010, 2011)
Worst scoring defense conference ranking over last five years: 11 (2011)
Returning starters: DE Michael Buchanan, DT Akeem Spence, DT Glenn Foster, LB Jonathan Brown, CB Terry Hawthorne, CB Justin Green, SS Supo Sanni, S Steve Hull
Open positions: DE, LB
Defensive formation: 4-3
Defensive philosophy: moderate
Defensive Breakdown
When Tim Beckman took the Fighting Illini head coaching job, one of the first things he did was attempt to retain defensive coordinator (DC) Vic Koenning.
One could hardly blame Beckman, given that Koenning took 2009's 96th-ranked Illinois scoring defense, and turned it into the 48th-ranked defense in 2010 and No. 15 in 2011.
Nevertheless, Koenning (per The Chicago Sun Times) felt "it was best to explore other opportunities."
This led to the hiring of Tim Banks, the Cincinnati Bearcats' co-DC of the last two years, and before that, the Central Michigan DC between 2007-2009.
Banks' defenses have been ranked (from 2011 backward, with the backslash indicating a switch in teams) Nos. 20, 68/ 17, 90 and 110.
As is evident, his defenses have improved every year he called the plays.
Also, the one holdover from Ron Zook's staff was defensive line coach, Keith Gilmore, who had been with Zook since 2009. This was a good move, as three of Gilmore's proteges have been drafted—two in the first round.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0iBt6HHkX8
Banks' and Gilmore's presence bodes well for the Illini defense, though the head coach's ability to coach up the group, despite his defensive background, is still in question.
In three years at Toledo, his D's never ranked above ninth in the MAC. Last season, his Rockets let up 63 points two games in a row—to Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, both top-25 scoring offenses.
As for the difference between Zook's/Koenning's defense and Beckman's/Bank's, the base D will still be 4-3.
Zook/Koenning ran an ultra-aggressive scheme. The linemen looked to penetrate, while the linebackers blitzed a ton. Due to this, Illinois had the seventh-most tackles for loss in the nation and tied for the sixth-most sacks.
Beckman and Banks aren't nearly as aggressive.
According to ESPN's Adam Rittenberg, "Tim Banks' defensive scheme is similar to what Koenning ran, although the linebackers are dropping into coverage a little more," though I would argue this is an understatement.
Last season, the Illini boasted three of the conference's top 10 in tackles-for-loss, including the top two.
In short, under Zook, the Illini wanted their front seven in the offensive backfield.
Beckman and Banks will not have a "conservative" scheme, though moderate is a fair description.
The linemen will have a greater focus on gap responsibility, while the linebackers will flow to the ball-carrier, and, as Rittenberg said, drop "into coverage a little more."
Moreover, due to the Illini's up-tempo offense, the defense will be expected to spend a lot of time on the field. According to Banks (via ESPN), "you need to play a lot of guys...[because the Illini are] going to play a lot of snaps."
In summation, this defense won't be as aggressive as it was under Zook, but it also won't be as conservative as, for example, Iowa under Kirk Ferentz or Ohio State under Jim Tressel. It will rotate a lot of players, each one of who will have to maintain his responsibility.
Defensive Line
Two Illini defensive linemen—Whitney Mercilus in 2012 and Corey Liuget in 2011—have been drafted in the first round of the last two NFL drafts.
Senior Michael Buchanan will try to make it three in a row. He is currently listed as a borderline first- or second-round pick by WalterFootball.com.
He will try to follow up a strong junior year—64 tackles, 13.5 tackles-for-loss, 7.5 sacks—with an even bigger senior year.
If the spring game is any indication, he is ready. According to StLouisToday.com, he had 11 tackles and four sacks in the exhibition. It is true that he was matched up against a new left tackle, but four sacks is nothing to turn your nose up at under any conditions.
The problem is, just after the spring game (via the Peoria Journal Star), Buchanan got into a bar fight which left him with a broken jaw. Regarding disciplinary actions, there are still extenuating details to be worked out, and Beckman is "hopeful and expect[s] to have him back for (preseason) camp.’’
Junior defensive tackle Akeem Spence is a two-year starter and a space eater.
Last year, he had the most tackles of any Big Ten defensive lineman with 69. According to teammate and veteran center Graham Pocic (via ESPN), Spence's "explosiveness off the ball, his strength, he's pretty athletic for his size. He's just a powerful dude. If you're not ready when you go against him, he's going to get under you and make some plays in the backfield."
This year, he is poised to have a breakout year and will vie for all-conference honors.
Meanwhile, defensive tackle Glenn Foster and end Justin Staples—both seniors—are limited but experienced and can be potent when they are surrounded by playmakers, which they are.
Finally, sophomore Jake Howe and junior Tim Kynard will get a good deal of playing time off the bench.
Unfortunately, Illinois junior linebacker Jonathan Brown is known more for his cheap shot of Northwestern tackle Patrick Ward than from his play on the field.
That is a shame, because last season, Brown was one of the surprise players of the year. He totaled 108 tackles, one interception, 19.5 tackles-for-loss and six sacks.
According to Brown via ESPN's Adam Rittenberg, "That was me being young, not thinking and being caught up in the moment. It brought my focus into what is really going on. ... It's still a maturing process."
This year, it is likely Brown will move from the weak side to the middle, where he will have the opportunity to make more plays. It remains to be seen how he'll fit into Beckford's defense, as Zook's aggressive defense suited Brown perfectly.
Either way, it is evident that he is a top-notch player to build a defense around.
As for the other linebackers, Houston Bates grabbed two starts as a true freshman in 2011. The Louisiana native chose Illinois over LSU, so he's got an impressive pedigree. He will probably man the weak side.
Meanwhile, Ashante Williams is a veteran and will likely be the starting strong-side backer.
It is all unproven sophomores and freshmen after the top three.
Overall, there is a lot of upside with this bunch, but also a lot to prove and no established depth.
Last season, the Illini had the third-best pass defense in the Big Ten.
This season, with the loss of only one key contributor, it will once again be among the best.
Senior cornerback Terry Hawthorne has shown a great deal of promise from the time he stepped onto the field as a true freshman. He battled injuries throughout his career, but a big senior season will spring him onto NFL scouts' radars.
Fellow senior Justin Green subbed for an injured Hawthorne in 2010, but lost the job to him last season. He did grab four starts in 2011 and had the 11th-most tackles on the team, so he's not rusty. He will move back into the full-time starting gig in 2012.
Seniors Suppo Sani and Patrick Nixon-Youman along with junior Steve Hull make for one of the better trio of safeties in the conference.
Also, senior Jack Ramsey is versatile, and took snaps at both receiver and cornerback in spring practices. Though he is still listed as a second-team defensive back, it will be tough to keep him off the field.
Lastly, Northern Illinois safety Tommy Davis recently transferred to the Illini (per ESPN), and will be eligible to play this year. Though his talents are more valuable to Illinois' special teams, and specifically the return squads, he does add one more experienced defensive back to the roster.
Expect Beckman to employ a lot of five and six defensive back looks, due to a surplus at the position.
Last season, the Illini had the 15th-ranked scoring defense in the nation. One could argue that ranking didn't to the unit justice when one considers that it was the seventh-ranked total defense.
Much of the reason for this disparity had to do with the special teams—which were not good, particularly the punting squad—and the offense, which tied for 104th in the country in turnovers lost.
In short, giving up bad field position consistently put the defense in a bad position.
I don't expect the 2012 offense to be as careless as the 2011 version, though the jury is still out on the special teams.
This season's defense will take a small step back, because of the loss of Whitney Mercilus and a slightly new defensive scheme.
It will still be a top-25 scoring defense, and may wind up being ranked around No. 15 for the second year in a row. However, the total defense will not break the top 10.
Still, top 25 is nothing to sneeze at.
I will also note that if the defense doesn't take to Beckman and Bank's less aggressive schemes, there is a possibility that it could take a substantial step back; nonetheless, I don't expect that to happen.
Coming next Wednesday, an overview and breakdown of Illinois' specialists, schedule, recruiting class and a prediction as to where I think the Illini will finish the 2012 season.
