Stanford Football

Stanford Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey has generated plenty of Heisman Trophy buzz throughout the 2015 season, and he added to his compelling case to take home the hardware by breaking Barry Sanders' NCAA single-season record for all-purpose yards Saturday night. 

According to ESPN.com's David Lombardi, McCaffrey passed Sanders when he hit the 3,251-yard mark in the second quarter of Stanford's Pac-12 title game showdown against the USC Trojans. At halftime, McCaffrey had already accumulated 155 rushing yards, four receiving yards, 85 return yards and a passing touchdown. 

Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer put McCaffrey's accomplishment into perspective:

Yes it’s two more games but Christian McCaffrey just broke Barry Sanders all-purpose record that stood for 26 years.

— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) December 6, 2015

The sophomore has been arguably the most impactful offensive player in the country this season, and his stats tell the story.

Prior to a 94-yard rushing effort last Saturday against Notre Dame, McCaffrey had topped 100 yards on the ground in nine straight games. The speedy standout also crossed the 200-yard rushing threshold against Oregon State and UCLA.

Beyond his rushing and receiving efforts, McCaffrey has padded his all-purpose total with loads of return yardage. According to Sports-Reference.com, he entered Saturday with 31 kick returns for 922 yards and 12 punt returns for 38 yards.

Thanks to those tallies, McCaffrey also broke Reggie Bush's Pac-12 single-season record for all-purpose yards en route to securing the conference's Offensive Player of the Year honor.

"(McCaffrey) has done something no one in the conference has done, and potentially no one in college football has done," Stanford head coach David Shaw said, according to the San Jose Mercury News' Jon Wilner. 

Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, Alabama running back Derrick Henry and Florida State running back Dalvin Cook can all make Heisman cases, but McCaffrey's record-shattering campaign should place him toward the top of the esteemed pack.

And considering McCaffrey is a sophomore with room to grow, it's scary to consider how high his collegiate ceiling may be. 

Stanford is 5-2 in its last seven matchups with Southern Cal, 4-3 against the spread, including an upset victory over the Trojans down in Los Angeles back in September. But can the Cardinal beat USC twice in one season? We'll find out when the teams meet in the Pac-12 Championship Game Saturday evening at Levi's Stadium.

Point spread: The Cardinal opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.9-30.0 Cardinal

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

Stanford has won two games in a row since its loss to Oregon, after outlasting Notre Dame last week 38-36. The Cardinal fell down by a point with 30 seconds to go on a short Irish touchdown run but got a big completion from quarterback Kevin Hogan and a 15-yard Notre Dame penalty, setting up Conrad Ukropina's game-winning field goal on the final play of the game.

Stanford took an early 7-0 lead on the Irish, then allowed a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Later, in the third quarter, the Cardinal took a 28-23 lead, then gave up a 62-yard Notre Dame touchdown run. But Hogan bailed the Stanford defense out, throwing four touchdown passes, along with Ukropina and his clutch kick.

At 10-2 overall, Stanford still clings to slim hopes of making the College Football Playoff.

Why the Southern Cal Trojans can cover the spread

Southern Cal clinched the Pac-12 South title last week with a 40-21 victory over UCLA. The Trojans fell behind the Bruins midway through the third quarter, 21-20, then scored the last 20 points of the game for the win and the cover as three-point favorites.

USC outrushed UCLA 235-140 and won time of possession by 20 minutes. The Trojans have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents and outrushed each of their last six foes.

Southern Cal is also now 5-2 since parting ways with head coach Steve Sarkisian.

Smart pick

Stanford was the smart choice in this matchup back in September, but that was as an underdog; this week the Cardinal are the favorites. And the favorite isn't just 0-4 ATS over the last four meetings in this series; it's lost all four games outright. Take the Trojans here, and they might not even need the points.

Betting trends

Southern Cal is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after an ATS win.

Stanford is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games.

Stanford is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against its conference.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.

Week 13 proved bittersweet for Stanford.

Results from other time zones effectively bounced them from the College Football Playoff, but the Cardinal won a rivalry game against No. 6 Notre Dame, 38-36.

The Irish scored what appeared to be the game-winning touchdown with 30 seconds to play, but Stanford kept its cool, drove 45 yards on five plays and won as time expired on a field goal by senior Conrad Ukropina:

#Stanford wins on FG by Conrad Ukropina as time expires

Until Midnight Spend 50 Get 30OFF https://t.co/PYTkfPLT1U pic.twitter.com/rr6X3qFxMu

— Football Recruit. (@FootballRecruit) November 29, 2015

Notre Dame outgained the Cardinal by more than 100 yards. It also returned a kickoff for a touchdown. The Irish outplayed Stanford in most situations but lost because of two major factors:

1. Stanford Third-Down Offense: 8-for-12 (66%).
2. Stanford Red-Zone Defense: Four Trips, 16 Points Allowed.

Great teams win even when they struggle. Stanford's defense struggled and then some. But the Cardinal still found a way to win.

The difference between this and Stanford's loss to Oregon—a game with a nearly identical box score and outcome—shows how far the Cardinal have come this season, and even over the past month.

Per ESPN's David Lombardi:

https://twitter.com/LombardiESPN/status/670820614270140416

Stanford's red-zone offense was as good as its red-zone defense. It scored touchdowns on all five trips inside the Notre Dame 20-yard line, fixing a problem that has plagued it for years.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Kevin Hogan, whose time in Palo Alto has been divisive, submitted one of his best performances, completing 17 of 21 passes for 269 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. His last throw was likely his biggest, hitting Devon Cajuste up the seam for 27 yards and moving the Cardinal into field-goal range.

"I challenge anybody to find a better two-minute quarterback in the nation than Kevin Hogan," Stanford head coach David Shaw said after the game, per Lombardi.

After Saturday, it's hard to disagree.

Kevin Hogan with an absolute strike to give Stanford a chance to kick the game-winning field goal. https://t.co/GV5u9RUeE8

— Rob Rang (@RobRang) November 29, 2015

The Cardinal have only a faint hope of making the playoff.

If the following outcomes happen...

1. Stanford blows out USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game
2. Florida beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game
3. Clemson blows out North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game
4. Iowa beats Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game

...they could lobby for inclusion over Ohio State, despite the Buckeyes having one loss to Stanford's two, because Stanford won a power conference while the Buckeyes lost their division. That would place them at No. 4 in a playoff that also includes Clemson, Iowa and Oklahoma.

Realistically, though, they should turn their focus away from the playoff. Even if those four things all occur, OSU might still (and probably would) rank ahead of them. The chance of all four things happening is slim enough. Why hold out hope for a long shot?

The Cardinal play USC next week with a chance to win the conference and make the Rose Bowl. They started this year outside the Associated Press Top 20—far from "Championship or Bust"—and scored six points in a Week 1 loss at Northwestern.

Look how far they've come in the next 11 games. Look at the foundation they've laid for next year. No matter how you swing it, this season was a massive success.

Saturday was the cherry atop the sundae. 

Brian Leigh covers college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BLeigh35

The accolades continue to pile up for Christian McCaffrey.

The Stanford Cardinal's star running back and kick returner broke the Pac-12 single-season record for all-purpose yards in Saturday's game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the school announced.

McCaffrey broke Reggie Bush's previous record of 2,890 yards, which he set in 2005. That year, Bush won the Heisman Trophy as a junior.

While it may be difficult for McCaffrey to win the Heisman this year, considering Stanford has multiple losses on its record and Alabama running back Derrick Henry seems to be the front-runner, it's been nothing short of a magnificent season for McCaffrey.

He came into Saturday's all-important matchup with Notre Dame with 2,835 all-purpose yards. He was also third in the nation in rushing with 1,546 yards, trailing only LSU's Leonard Fournette and Oregon's Royce Freeman.

NFL Network's Albert Breer shared some thoughts on McCaffrey's playing style:

Christian McCaffrey is pretty scrappy. Motor doesn't stop either. #cerebral

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) November 29, 2015

McCaffrey is the main reason why Stanford will be playing for the Pac-12 title with a chance to go back to the Rose Bowl.

Stanford Cardinal sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey broke the school's single-season record for all-purpose yardage Saturday, according to the team's Twitter account.

Glyn Milburn had set the record with 2,234 yards in 1992. After Saturday's matchup against the Oregon Ducks, McCaffrey will have at least three games left to increase his numbers, with the team's final two regular-season matchups coming at home.

For all of the talk about Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry as the best running backs in the country, McCaffrey has flown under the radar despite being a huge reason why Stanford continues to make a push toward the College Football Playoff field.

Ralph Russo of the Associated Press offered his thoughts on McCaffrey and the crop of running backs this year:

Christian McCaffrey (6-foot, 200) and Derrick Henry (6-3, 240) play the same position and are both awesome at it.
Love football.

— Ralph D. Russo (@ralphDrussoATH) November 15, 2015

If Stanford continues to win games at this pace, McCaffrey is sure to get more Heisman Trophy consideration.

He came into Saturday with 1,207 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry. By distancing himself in the record book and padding his stats in Stanford's final two regular-season games, McCaffrey can sneak into the discussion while other contenders such as Fournette stumble.

Not too long ago, Oregon dominated the series with Stanford, winning nine of 10 meetings from 2002 to 2011. But the Cardinal have won two of the last three meetings outright and have covered four of the last seven. Stanford is usually the underdog against the Ducks but will go off as home chalk for Saturday night's Pac-12 North showdown out on the Farm.

Point spread: Cardinal opened as 8.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 34.5-31.6 Cardinal

Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

Oregon struggled through the early part of this season, as many teams do after losing Heisman-winning quarterbacks, and a disheartening home loss to Washington State a month ago dropped the Ducks to just 3-3. But since then, Oregon is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread, including a 44-28 victory over Cal last week. OU spotted the Bears the first 10 points of the game, then scored the next 31 to take over. Cal then pulled within two scores twice after that, but each time the Ducks responded with a score of their own.

For the game, Oregon racked up a new school-record 777 yards on offense, 477 on the ground, and won time of possession by almost 15 minutes on its way to covering as a four-point home favorite.

Two weeks ago the Ducks won at Arizona State 61-55 in overtime, and just before that they won at Washington 26-20, taking both those games outright as three-point road dogs. Along with that loss/cover at Michigan State back in September Oregon is 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog.

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

Stanford own an eight-game winning streak, which includes seven covers, after crunching Colorado last week 42-10. The Cardinal scored on a one-yard Kevin Hogan run on the last play of the first half to take a 28-7 lead, then cruised from there, covering as two-touchdown road favorites.

On the day, Stanford outgained the Buffaloes 472-231, outrushed them 275-83 and won time of possession by 16 minutes.

Two weeks ago, the Cardinal had to hold on for dear life to beat Washington State up in Pullman 30-28, but prior to that they had won and covered six games in a row. At 7-0 in Pac-12 play Stanford needs one more victory to clinch a spot in the conference championship game, which could lead to even bigger things.

Smart pick

Stanford's ball-control has beaten Oregon's circus two of the last three meetings, but the Ducks actually outscored the Cardinal in those three games by a combined score of 79-59. Also, Oregon is a better team now than it was five weeks ago, and it might be getting a couple of extra points on the line, playing on the road. Dine with the Ducks, plus the points.

Betting trends

The favored team is 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four games in this matchup.

Oregon is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games against Stanford.

Stanford is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

Last week was considered a slow week in terms of high-profile matches—even though it ended up as another defining week in the race for the playoffs—but Week 9 might be one of the weakest of the season.

With five of the Top 7 in the AP poll on a bye week this week—only No. 3 Clemson and No. 5 TCU are scheduled to play this weekend—it will be a chance for some of the teams lower in the polls to show they are worthy of joining the discussion for the playoffs.

Once again, there is only one ranked matchup on the docket, with No. 9 Notre Dame traveling to take on No. 21 Temple, but there are still a fair number of games that have a direct impact on the title picture and the conference races.

Let’s predict the winners of each AP Top 25 game this week and preview some of the weekend’s biggest matchups:

Rank	Team	Record	Week 9 Matchup	Predicted Result
1	Ohio State	8-0	Bye	-
2	Baylor	7-0	Bye	-
3	Clemson	7-0	at NC State	Win
4	LSU	7-0	Bye	-
5	TCU	7-0	West Virginia	Win
6	Michigan State	8-0	Bye	-
7	Alabama	7-1	Bye	-
8	Stanford	6-1	at Washington State	Win
9	Notre Dame	6-1	at Temple	Win
10	Iowa	7-0	Maryland	Win
11	Florida	6-1	Georgia	Win
12	Oklahoma State	7-0	at Texas Tech	Loss
13	Utah	6-1	Oregon State	Win
14	Oklahoma	6-1	at Kansas	Win
15	Michigan	5-2	at Minnesota	Win
16	Memphis	7-0	Tulane	Win
17	Florida State	6-1	Syracuse	Win
18	Houston	7-0	Vanderbilt	Win
19	Ole Miss	6-2	at Auburn	Win
20	Toledo	7-0	Bye	-
21	Temple	7-0	Notre Dame	Loss
22	Duke	6-1	Miami (FL)	Win
23	Pittsburgh	6-1	North Carolina	Loss
24	UCLA	5-2	Colorado	Win
25	Mississippi State	6-2	Bye	-

No. 21 Temple vs. No. 9 Notre Dame

There has been a lot of bandwidth spent on the rise of the American Athletic Conference in recent weeks. Houston rising up the polls under former Ohio State assistant Tom Herman and Memphis taking down Ole Miss have been headline-stealing events in this topsy-turvy season.

But while the Tigers and Cougars feel validated in their Top 25 rankings, there are still those wondering about the Temple Owls. A season-opening win against Penn State was impressive, but a number of close wins have people wondering if Temple can keep it up for the rest of the season.

After this weekend, though, everyone will know where Temple stands in college football’s power structure. With a prime-time matchup in Philadelphia with a perennial powerhouse coming this week, the Owls will either validate their status or fall back in with the rank and file.

This season, Temple's strength has been on defense, holding its opponents to just 307.7 yards per game, while the offense has struggled at times to put up consistent numbers, which isn’t a good sign against a high-scoring Notre Dame squad.

If Temple can capitalize on early adrenaline and take an early lead, or at least keep up with the Irish through the first half, there could be an upset in the cards. But Notre Dame won’t give the underdog the chance to keep things close, pulling away early en route to a big win.

Prediction: No. 9 Notre Dame 38, No. 21 Temple 21

 

Washington State vs. No. 8 Stanford

Just a quick recap about Washington State’s up-and-down season. The Cougars started the year off with a loss to Portland State, an FCS school, and barely beat a weak Rutgers side 37-34 on the road.

Since then, though, Washington State has won four of five games, with victories against Arizona and Oregon in that span, and barely lost to a ranked California team 34-28 on the road. This run in form has the Cougars up to second place in the Pac-12 North and a win away this weekend from taking the division lead.

Unfortunately for Washington State, its opponent is the No. 8 Stanford Cardinal, who have been one of the country's best teams since an upset loss to Northwestern in the season’s opening fixture.

Following the loss, Stanford has won six straight games, all by at least 10 points, and looks comfortable atop a disappointing Pac-12 North. With an offense in the top 25 in points per game and a defense in the top 35 this season, the Cardinal are one of the most balanced teams in the nation and don’t appear to have any glaring weaknesses.

The run by the Cougars to a point of contention has to be respected and enjoyed while it can, but Stanford will prove too talented to fall to Washington State Saturday and will solidify its spot in the Pac-12 with a big victory.

Prediction: No. 8 Stanford 42, Washington State 17

 

Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Oklahoma State

It might sound a little bit disrespectful to Kliff Kingsbury’s squad but so far this season, Texas Tech has been the Big 12’s equivalent of a midcard jobber in WWE: good enough to test the main event stars, but not quite good enough to be one itself.

This season, the Red Raiders are 5-3, with all of their losses coming against the top teams in the conference. A 55-52 loss to TCU, a 63-35 loss to Baylor and most recently a 63-27 loss to Oklahoma last week are the only times this year Texas Tech has found itself in the loser’s column.

Coming up this week, an undefeated and scrappy Oklahoma State team has to travel to Lubbock, Texas, and prove that it deserves to be considered one of the best teams in the Big 12.

The Cowboys haven’t been blowing out their opponents like some of their conference brethren have been all season, but starting 7-0 has Oklahoma State up to No. 12 in the AP poll and on the verge of breaking into the Big 12’s top tier with Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor.

But after an incredibly emotionally charged game in Stillwater, Oklahoma, last weekend, can the Cowboys continue their surprising undefeated run against one of the best offenses in the country? It should be close, especially if the Red Raiders don’t offer up any resistance on defense, but Texas Tech has been close to pulling the upset this season and looks poised to do so this weekend against Oklahoma State.

Prediction: Texas Tech 56, No. 12 Oklahoma State 45

Stanford is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Washington, but the Huskies are 3-0 against the spread the last three meetings, covering each time out as betting underdogs. They'll go off as dogs again when they clash with the Cardinal Saturday night for Homecoming out on the Farm.

Point spread: This game opened off the board at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.1-17.5 Cardinal

Why the Washington Huskies can cover the spread

Washington is 3-3 this season, but 4-2 ATS, even after last week's 26-20 loss to Oregon. The Huskies fell down 23-6 midway through the third quarter, rallied to within one score with just under four minutes to go, but couldn't quite complete the comeback. On the night Washington ran the ball for 180 yards, but the U-Dub defense, which has played fairly well so far this season, allowed the Ducks to go 9-of-18 on third-down conversions.

Two weeks ago, though, the Huskies pulled off their biggest victory in a season-plus under head coach Chris Petersen, upsetting USC down in Los Angeles 17-12.

Offensively Washington is still trying to piece things together, but the defense ranks near the top 30 in the country in a couple of key categories. If the Huskies can ugly this game up a bit, hold Stanford in the 20s or even the low 30s, they could cash.

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

Since dropping their season opener at Northwestern the Cardinal have won and covered five games in a row. Last Thursday Stanford jumped out early on UCLA and never let up, winning 56-35, easily covering as a seven-point home favorite. The Cardinal led 14-3 seven minutes in, and later 56-20, before letting the Bruins score a couple of meaningless touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

On the night Stanford ran the ball for 310 yards, as running back Christian McCaffrey set one school record and tied another with 243 yards and four touchdowns, all in the first three quarters.

At 4-0 in conference play, with a game-and-a-half lead in the Pac-12 North, the Cardinal can almost already smell that conference championship game berth.

Smart pick

Stanford has outrushed six of seven opponents this season, while Washington has been outrushed in three of its last four games. Also, the Cardinal are averaging 49 points per game in conference play. Finally, Huskies quarterback Jake Browning is iffy for this week with a shoulder injury, via the Seattle Times' Adam Jude. Stanford is the smart play here.

Betting trends

Stanford is 16-0 SU in its last 16 games at home is October.

Stanford is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games.

Washington is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

STANFORD, Calif. — Just one game into a long season, Stanford’s long flight home to the Bay Area from a six-point outing at Northwestern in their opener seemed to weigh on the Cardinal unlike any other loss in recent memory.

Written off by pundits, criticized near and far by fans and media alike, Stanford was 0-1 on the season and gone from the national conversation. A dark-horse contender in the Pac-12 turned into a mere afterthought by Week 2 thanks to an offense that looked incoherent, uneven and unorganized against the lowly Wildcats.

But like every boulder teetering on a hill, all the determined and still-talented Cardinal needed was a push. It came in the form of a flea-flicker against Central Florida in the home opener when quarterback Kevin Hogan connected with Michael Rector for a 53-yard strike to score the first touchdown of the season.

It may have taken six quarters of action before the team found pay dirt in 2015, but after Thursday night’s 56-35 dismantling of No. 18 UCLA, Stanford appears quite comfortable returning to the end zone no matter the time, place or opponent.

“People panic, all the time, whenever something goes wrong. But coaches and players can’t panic when something goes wrong…sometimes you don’t play well,” head coach David Shaw said after handing the Bruins their second loss of the year and further establishing his team as favorites to make it to the Pac-12 title game. “I said it a bunch of times, somebody has to make the first basket. That’s what that flea-flicker was at UCF.

“We trust our scheme and trust our guys. We just went back to playing football and having fun doing it.”

The aftermath of that first basket four games ago has turned normally plodding Stanford into the football version of Loyola Marymount hoops from long before the current players were even born. The Cardinal have reeled off games with 31, 41, 42, 55 and 56 points since the debacle against Northwestern and show no signs of stopping.

And just like those Loyola Marymount teams of the late '80s that were scoring at will, the Cardinal have their own version of guard Bo Kimble in sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey.

On Thursday morning, McCaffrey’s father, Ed, likely woke up as the most famous member of the family after winning a pair of Super Bowls as a reliable NFL receiver for former Stanford quarterback John Elway.

As the clock ticked over to Friday morning across most of the country, though, it was the young tailback on the Farm who had suddenly become the household name in college football and the key to a dangerous offensive attack that is much more than three yards and a cloud of dust.

McCaffrey’s 369 all-purpose yards were the most by any FBS player all season, and he also set the school record for rushing yards…in just three quarters of work. After entering the game with just a single touchdown on the year, McCaffrey punched it in four times against the Bruins.

“I didn’t even know about [the records] until they said something on the loudspeaker,” McCaffrey said, shaking his head with a sly smile. “It’s cliche, but props to the O-line and receivers blocking down the field. Those were the guys who really made it happen. I just had to run.”

Run, run and run some more, possibly even to New York City for the Heisman Trophy presentation. McCaffrey’s numbers put him on pace to rewrite a number of school single-season records and threaten several others in the FBS record book. He won’t ever be labeled a “big back” like some of his predecessors at Stanford, but that’s fine.

McCaffrey is unique, he’s good and he’s here to stay.

“He’s just an incredible athlete, I wouldn’t even call him just a running back,” backfield-mate Hogan said. “He’s an incredible football player who does it all well. He’s very hard on himself, and he helps bring the best out of himself.”

The new star’s efforts are certainly carrying over to his teammates, and McCaffrey doesn’t mind jump-starting a big play for others, either.

In a back-breaking play early in the third quarter, McCaffrey lined up in the Wildcat formation, handed the ball off to fellow running back Bryce Love and sealed off the edge from any Bruins defenders. That allowed Love to pitch the ball to Hogan, who launched it toward the end zone.

Stanford pulls off the play of the year: pic.twitter.com/Z4I5OvzViY

— Deadspin (@Deadspin) October 16, 2015

The ball was slightly underthrown, but that didn’t seem to matter to junior wideout Francis Owusu, who bear-hugged UCLA defensive back Jaleel Wadood and caught the ball behind the defender’s back as they tumbled to the turf.

It was the catch of the season bar none, and one even Odell Beckham Jr. can’t top.

“I can’t describe that catch. I still can’t. I don’t understand what happened, to be honest,” Shaw remarked. “They showed it on the board and I’ve been told my facial expression was on TV many times. Just a phenomenal catch.”

SAME @CoachDavidShaw#Pac12FB #Pac12AfterDark pic.twitter.com/GZ8JyXALVF

— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) October 16, 2015

For UCLA, that image was ingrained into fans’ minds during another forgettable trip to the Bay Area, a place the Bruins have won just three times in the past decade against in-state rivals Stanford and California.

While the box score may not have looked too bad aside from the final score, it was easily the most concerning defensive performance head coach Jim Mora has had in the past few seasons with a team that looked like the conference’s top dog just two weeks ago.

Penalties haunted the Bruins from the outset, and things never seemed to go their way again. On the team’s first offensive drive of the game, UCLA converted a 3rd-and-short, but wide receiver Jordan Payton was called for offensive pass interference to negate the play and back the team up 15 yards. On the next play, quarterback Josh Rosen threw a pick-six.

That pretty much summed up the night for Mora’s team, even if the damage was far from over.   

The way things are going, though, they won’t be the only ones to suffer a defeat like that at the hands of a Stanford team that is playing as well as—if not better than—any other in the country.

“I think we might have been pressing too hard early on,” Hogan admitted about the team’s mindset following the loss to Northwestern. “We’re on our way to our goal right now, though. Honestly, it was a blessing in disguise, what happened at the beginning of the season. You realize how hard it is to win a college football game. You can’t take anybody lightly.”

Stanford certainly won’t be taken lightly nationally after Thursday night’s thrashing.

With just two road games to conference bottom-dwellers Washington State and Colorado and a likely two-game lead in the division before November rolls around, the Cardinal once again appear to be for real in the Pac-12 race and have a schedule that sets up nicely for a run to the College Football Playoff.

Such a scenario playing out seemed unthinkable back at the beginning of September, but halfway through the season, the team sits with its destiny ahead of it.

All it took was one play for Stanford to turn around its season, and thanks to McCaffrey, Hogan and others leading the way, there doesn’t seem to be anybody who can slow down this potent offense.

Bryan Fischer covers college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

Stanford owns the recent rivalry with UCLA, winning the last seven meetings straight up and going 6-1 against the spread. The Cardinal look to keep the good times going against the Bruins when the Pac-12 contenders clash Thursday night at Stanford Stadium.

Point spread: The Cardinal opened as five-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.0-19.7 Cardinal

Why the UCLA Bruins can cover the spread

UCLA was rolling right along this season, winning its first four games and opening its Pac-12 slate with a convincing road victory at Arizona. But the Bruins then fell victim to a letdown and lost at home to Arizona State 38-23. They then had last week off.

UCLA fell down to the Sun Devils 29-10 in the third quarter, rallied to within one score at 29-23 but couldn't quite complete the comeback. The Bruins never did get their running game going, although quarterback Josh Rosen nearly brought them back, throwing for 280 yards and a pair of scores.

The Bruins are filling holes on defense, thanks to a bout with the injury bug, but the extra time off should help. And if they can just get the running game going, that UCLA defense won't have to be on the field for 38 minutes like it was against ASU.

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

Since dropping their season opener at Northwestern the Cardinal have won and covered four games in a row, after disposing of Arizona two weeks ago 55-17 as two-touchdown home chalk. Stanford then also had last week off.

The Cardinal jumped out to a 27-3 halftime lead on the Wildcats and pulled away from there, eventually racking up 570 yards of offense, 314 on the ground, winning time of possession by a 37-23 margin.

Running back Christian McCaffrey reeled off his third straight 100-yard rushing performance, Barry Sanders scored on another long touchdown run and quarterback Kevin Hogan hit on 17 of 19 passes for 217 yards and two scores without an interception.

Stanford opened its Pac-12 slate with an upset of USC at the Coliseum, winning that game outright as a 10-point dog, and followed that up with a 42-24 victory at Oregon State, covering 14 points. So the Cardinal own the early lead in the North Division, and their toughest games from here on out are at home.

Smart pick

UCLA won at Arizona three weeks ago, then suffered a letdown in the loss to Arizona State. But that might just set the Bruins up for a rebound effort this week. Despite a couple of key injuries on defense, and the recent futility in this series, the smart money here resides with UCLA, plus the points.

Betting trends

Stanford is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against UCLA.

UCLA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games in October.

Stanford is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.