Iowa Hawkeyes Football

32-31. Tell any Iowa fan that score this week and they'll fly into a blind rage, and it's easy to understand why—that was the score by which lowly Central Michigan beat the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, sending Iowa to its first two-loss non-conference slate since 2007.

The offense is a complete mess under new offensive coordinator Greg Davis, the defense is just good enough to keep the Hawkeyes in the game against the likes of Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Central Michigan (I can't believe I just typed that), but most jarringly, the special teams is and has been an undisciplined disaster.

The kicking and punting are both fine. Mike Meyer is a reliable kicker and Iowa has always been able to find guys who can send the ball 40 yards on punts with regularity. It's just the act of actually getting and keeping the ball has been a challenge for Iowa.

Central Michigan used an onside kick that two Hawkeyes neglected to try to recover to stage its miracle comeback with under a minute to go. Minnesota kicked an onside kick last season that Iowa was painfully unprepared for as it made a heroic second-half comeback. The Gophers also pulled that in 2010 against Iowa to great effect en route to victory. And Iowa's conference title hopes were dashed in 2010 when Wisconsin used a fake punt to keep the ball on its winning drive in a 31-30 victory.

Between all this and the 15-11 record Iowa has managed in the two years prior, it's high time for Hawkeye fans to at least start wondering when the Kirk Ferentz era might start drawing to a close.

And the answer to that is pretty simple: Kirk Ferentz's time at Iowa is going to end whenever he wants it to end, because his contract makes firing him virtually impossible for the next six years, minimum. And considering the return on investment and financial obligation it puts on Iowa, it is without a doubt the worst contract in college football.

Here's a link to the Kirk Ferentz contract, via HawkCentral.com. It's pretty standard, as gigantic contracts go, and overall it's for 10 years and roughly $39 million, once all the incentives and bonuses are added up. And yes, $39 million is a lot to commit the University of Iowa to paying, especially considering the nature of the buyout. More on that in a second.

Overall, the Kirk Ferentz contract makes him the sixth-highest paid coach in college football. Here's a full yet slightly outdated list from Phil Steele—you can add Urban Meyer at $4.4 million per year (per Cleveland.com), right between Nick Saban and Bob Stoops at No. 3, pushing Ferentz to No. 6.

That contract came after the 2009 season drew to a close, one that saw Iowa return to glory and win the Orange Bowl against Georgia Tech. So Ferentz is in Year 3 of his contract, and he's got a 17-13 record to show for it—and a Big Ten schedule awaiting him. And let's be honest: A 2-6 Big Ten record is totally in play with a team this bad, and that would push his post-contract record to an even 19-19.

It should probably go without saying, but $3.875 million a year has got to buy more than a .500 record.

The real killer for Iowa, however, is the buyout, which is set at 75% of his remaining salary, paid monthly. So if Iowa wants to go another route for its head coach, that's fine. It'll just owe Ferentz about a quarter-million dollars a month.

Every month.

Until January of 2020.

So unless Iowa wants to pay the equivalent of a $3 million annual penalty for firing Ferentz for the rest of the decade (and this is a pretty young decade), Ferentz is there to stay in Iowa City.

Hawkeye fans had better hope he at least keeps his record above .500 in that time. Sure, their expectations can and should be higher, but Ferentz needs to worry about .500 before even talking about a return to glory first. And if Central Michigan can come into town and leave with a 32-31 win that wasn't flukish until the final minute, .500 sounds a lot more like a reasonable aspiration than going bowling in January for the foreseeable future.

Sounds great for the sixth-highest paid coach in the nation, doesn't it?

After the Hawkeyes' one-point loss to Central Michigan, Iowa fans are wondering if it can get any worse.

They came into the season knowing it would be a rebuilding year.

The Hawks had only five full-time returning starters on defense and six returning starters on offense to go along with a new punter. 

This didn't even paint the full picture of the Hawkeyes' inexperience.

Football guru Phil Steele put together a number of preseason statistics detailing teams' returning experience as judged from a number of different angles.

He had Iowa 101st in the country in terms of percentage of returning lettermen. The Hawks were 80th in percentage of returning offensive yardage. They were 96th in percentage of returning tackles and 92nd in career returning offensive line starts.

Finally, Iowa was No. 100 on his combined experience chart.

Making matters worse, the Hawks had a green defensive line—always trouble on a Kirk Ferentz-coached defense—and what had been the Hawkeyes' greatest asset under Ferentz—coaching stability—was no longer an asset, as Iowa had to replace both coordinators and a position coach.

Still, Iowa had a cakewalk schedule, a returning quarterback and most of its winnable games were in the friendly confines of Kinnick Stadium.

Consequently, what was accepted as a "rebuilding" year did not have to be a catastrophe.

The out-of-conference portion of the schedule is now over, and Iowa is 2-2, having dropped two home games, one of which was to an unquestionably inferior—talent-wise—team. The Hawkeyes also looked lackluster in their two victories, squeaking out 18 points against a Northern Illinois team that allowed 40 points to Army.

This follows certain other realities within the program.

Firstly, the Hawks underachieved in both 2010 and 2011, with 2010 being an egregious letdown. Secondly, Iowa's trophy case is currently empty.

Thirdly, since 2006, Kirk Ferentz's record in games decided by a field goal or less has been 7-15. However, that record is misleading. When one takes out the miracle 2009 season, in which Iowa went 4-1 in such close games—two of which were to college football juggernauts (FCS) Northern Iowa and Arkansas State—the Hawks are 3-14 in games decided by a field goal or less.

In other words, excepting 2009, they are 3-14 in games that are generally decided by the better in-game coach.

Fourthly, part of the reason for Iowa's issues this year is severe attrition due to transfers, disciplinary problems, etc., particularly at running back and along the defensive line. There are no available statistics to compare Iowa to other programs in this regard. Nevertheless, this should not be such a problem for a program with the fourth longest-tenured coach in college football.

Quite the contrary, in this regard, the Hawks should be at an advantage over other programs. It is for that reason that coaching stability is a top priority at a program like Iowa. At a program like Florida, where there is never a shortage of talent, four head coaches in 12 years hardly matters.

Fifthly, as Cedar Rapids Gazette's Mike Hlas pointed out following last season's collapse against Minnesota, Iowa had nine losses as double-digit favorites since 2006. This was easily the worst in the Big Ten. Now, Iowa has 10 such losses, as some lines in Vegas had the Hawks giving away 14 points to CMU.

Finally, Iowa's record between 2005-2011 is tied with Cal for 35th best in college football. Over the last two years, during which the Hawks put a Big Ten-best 12 players into the NFL draft, the Hawks are tied for 43rd.

That would be acceptable for a coach in the nascent part of his program—and certainly for a coach working in a program like Indiana, which needs to be systematically rebuilt.

On the other hand, Kirk Ferentz is the $3.8 million man (per Businessweek). According to Phil Steele, as of March 2012, that salary made him the fifth highest-paid coach in college football, behind Mack Brown, Nick Saban, Bob Stoops and Les Miles.

That list is no longer entirely accurate, and Ferentz is currently No. 6, but he's still in lofty space.

In all fairness, most Iowa fans recognize that Ferentz is not paid based on his most recent body of work but on what he did in 2008-2009 and 2002-2004. That is the way such things work, and nobody blames Ferentz for that.

Moreover, most Hawkeye fans recognize that Iowa faces much tougher inherent challenges than programs like Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma or LSU. Nobody expects Ferentz to regularly compete with those programs on a national or even local stage.

But they do expect wins over programs like Central Michigan. Or Minnesota in 2010 and 2011. Or Northwestern in 2009 (even without Ricky Stanzi). Or Iowa State in 2007.

Which brings on the key question: Can the Hawkeyes salvage the season after the loss to Central Michigan?

It is possible, though unlikely, that Iowa could manage to squeak out four conference wins, thereby achieving bowl eligibility. At this point, it is hard to imagine that Iowa will be favored in any more games, outside of possibly Indiana and Penn State.

If Iowa does manage six wins, it would be Iowa's third underachieving season in a row, but it would also avoid catastrophe.

On the other hand, it doesn't address the overarching question that plagues the Iowa program: Is Ferentz the man to turn the program around for the third time under his watch?

Based on all the available evidence, it has reached a point where the answer is "no."

I write that with a heavy heart, as I, an Iowa fan, think highly of Ferentz, avidly remember his "high" points, appreciate all he's done for the program and would rather suffer losses to CMU than see some blowhard embarrass himself and the program.

Nevertheless, over the past few years, Ferentz has repeatedly made the same mistakes in common-sense situations, repeatedly failed to show up against teams that have no business being on the field with his Hawks and, most importantly, repeatedly failed to make the changes and adjustments—both in-game and systematically—that could have righted the ship.

The Central Michigan game indicates that the future will be more of the same.

Certainly, sometime within the next five years, the stars will line up with just the right combination of schedule, upperclassmen and fortunate bounces, and Iowa will pull out another 10-win season.

But until that season, it will be more losses to teams that Iowa should beat, even in a down year.

Can the Hawkeyes pull out four more wins and salvage this season? It's unlikely, but yes, they can.

That doesn't address the bigger issue.

Kirk Ferentz refused and refuses to implement the changes he needs to make in order to avoid implosions like the one that occurred against CMU.

In effect, unless losses of that magnitude are acceptable simply because Ferentz is a noble guy, it's time for a change.

This was a new way to lose.

Iowa managed to blow an eight-point lead in the final two minutes Saturday to lose 32-31 to Central Michigan at Kinnick Stadium.

Iowa held a 31-23 lead with 2:18 left, only to see it slip away, as Central Michigan scored a touchdown, failed on a two-point conversion and kicked a game-winning, 47-yard field goal, all in the final minute.

Iowa's offense started well, scoring on its opening drive on a touchdown pass from James Vandenberg to Kevonte Martin-Manley. But Central Michigan came right back, scoring on its first possession to tie the score. That marked the third game in which the Iowa defense has failed to keep the opposing team out of the end zone on its first drive.

The defense did show resilience, however, when Iowa fullback Mark Weisman lost a fumble deep in Iowa territory. It made a stand, forcing CMU to settle for a field goal.  Later in the half, Iowa had a blown coverage in the secondary and surrendered another touchdown pass that gave Central Michigan a 23-14 lead at the half.

Despite his lost fumble, Weisman, a sophomore, was fantastic again, rushing 27 times for 217 yards and three touchdowns.  One of those touchdowns came on a 34-yard run on an important 4th-and-1 play in the first quarter. He also scored on a bruising 12-yard run with 2:18 left to give the Hawkeyes the 31-23 lead.

The defense quickly surrendered points, however.  Central Michigan scored with 45 seconds left to cut the Iowa lead to two, only to see defensive back Micah Hyde make a nice play on the ball to spoil the two-point attempt.

This led to a controversial onside-kick fiasco. 

Central Michigan had the ball blow off the tee twice, which required a holder to spot the ball for kicker.  This led to a delay-of-game penalty on the first attempt, which invalidated Iowa tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz's recovery of the onside kick. 

The ball was moved back five yards and Central Michigan tried a second onside kick. This seemed to confuse the Hawkeyes, as the second kick traveled the necessary 10 yards and was easily recovered  by a Central Michigan player.

The Chippewas then were helped by a costly personal foul penalty by Iowa's Joe Gaglione with under 40 seconds left.  It gave Central Michigan a crucial 15 yards and moved it into Iowa territory.

Three plays later, Central Michigan's David Harman connected on the game-winning field goal.

Iowa's lack of execution on defense and special teams in the final minutes is what ultimately lost this game for the Hawkeyes.  It was certainly not the offense, nor was it the officiating.

Nine penalties for 106 yards.  That is what did in the Hawkeyes.  Seemingly all of these penalties, except perhaps a questionable pass interference call in the first quarter, appeared to be the correct call.

Weisman looked great.  Martin-Manley also looked like a legitimate big-play receiver.  Vandenberg had his best game of the season from the standpoint of game management, and yet, the Hawkeyes still lost at home to a MAC school.

The Hawkeyes are now 2-2 heading into Big Ten play next week at home against Minnesota.  The Gophers have beaten the Hawkeyes each of the last two seasons in Minneapolis. 

Whether the Big Ten is "down" or not this season, 2-2 in the non-conference with losses coming to Iowa State and Central Michigan is not a great way for the Hawks to head into the Big Ten.