BYU Football

Brigham Young started 4-0 this season, but since losing multitalented quarterback Taysom Hill to that nasty leg injury, the Cougars are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread. And things don't get any easier this week, as BYU heads to Boise State to take on the Broncos on the Smurf turf at Albertsons Stadium Friday night.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites at Bronco Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 33.1-31.4 Broncos

Why the BYU Cougars can cover the spread

The Cougars took a terrible hit when Hill went down, but their recent demise can't be blamed entirely on the quarterback situation. In his first action in place of Hill, senior Christian Stewart threw three interceptions against Utah State. Next time out against Central Florida, he threw just one interception and three touchdown passes.

Last week, in a 42-35 loss at Nevada, he threw zero picks and four touchdown passes. BYU actually outgained the Wolf Pack 601-411 and led 28-13 midway through the third quarter, but three lost fumbles proved costly.

Why the Boise State Broncos can cover the spread

Since opening the season with that loss to Ole Miss, the Broncos have won five of six games, going 4-2 ATS, including a 37-27 victory last week over Fresno State. Boise State outgained the Bulldogs 492-313 and held the ball for almost 36 minutes, and 76 of Fresno State's yards came on one play.

The Broncos have now outgained and outrushed six of seven opponents this season, and those are usually good ways to win games and cover spreads. Boise State ranks 23rd in the country in total offense, and with help from running back Jay Ajayi, who has run for almost 900 yards already this season, and the 24th-ranked run defense, it's outrushing foes by over 70 yards per game.

Smart pick

The loss of Hill has certainly had an impact on BYU, but Stewart has improved each time out, and linesmakers and the betting public may not have picked up on that yet. So the value with the spread on this game may lie with the underdog Cougars.

Betting trends

• BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.
• Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.

In just a few short weeks, BYU's 2014 football season turned from a fairytale to a nightmare.

The Cougars started with a 4-0 record, including convincing wins over Texas and Virginia, and had a legitimate Heisman contender in Taysom Hill. Within days, the storylines flipped—the Cougars lost to Utah State (USU) and Central Florida, and more than a few key players, including Hill, were injured in the process.

All of a sudden, hopes of a perfect season, potential New Year's bowl game and another Heisman are gone. Naturally, with another seemingly disappointing season, BYU fans have let pointed fingers fly. But is there any single thing to blame for back-to-back losses and smashed hopes?

Of course, the common scapegoats have been thrust into the spotlight—anything from the referees, to bad coaching, to the injuries. All three are reasonable, but the former shouldn't make for a reasonable argument.

Sure, the officials in the past two games have missed calls here and there. The one that gets Cougar fans the most heated—a pass interference no-call against UCF—turned out to be a major factor in the final outcome. 

This was not called as PI. 4th and 3 with the game on the line. UCF DB was hugging the WR for BYU. pic.twitter.com/EJmIwrI3Eu

— Dustin Fox (@DustinFox37) October 10, 2014

Still, even if the Cougs got that call, they would still have to score. And, even if they would have scored, UCF would get the ball back and be in a position to win the game. So, no matter what, the referees did not—in any way—lose the game for BYU. The Cougars had a two-possession lead in the third quarter and blew it.

So, with referees out of the way, up comes the issue of injuries. In the past two weeks, injured starters or key players include:

• Taysom Hill (QB)
• Jamaal Williams (RB)
• Alani Fua (OLB)
• Dallin Leavitt (DB)
• Craig Bills (DB)
• Brayden Kearsley (OL)
• Jordan Johnson (DB)
• Adam Hine (RB)
• Terenn Houk (WR)

On top of that, linebacker Bronson Kaufusi and receiver Jordan Leslie are currently rehabbing after recent injuries. In addition, JUCO transfer Nick Kurtz will seek a medical redshirt season after a lingering ailment.

Obviously, it is difficult to win games without almost half of your starters. The injury situation has taken its toll on BYU—and will keep nagging the team for the rest of the season—but at this point, it's just something you have to deal with and move on.

Although you can't really control injuries, one thing you can control is coaching. BYU's coaching—especially since Taysom Hill got hurt against Utah State—has been hideous. Of course, it had its issues before (see play-calling, delay-of-game vs. Virginia, etc.,) but it took a big plunge during the USU game.

From the first few minutes of the USU game, anyone could tell that Utah State was the better-prepared team. They came out more physical and more motivated. It only got worse when Hill went down—instead of Robert Anae calling running plays and short passes to get backup quarterback Christian Stewart comfortable, he stuck to deep routes which killed Stewart's confidence.

The next game, against UCF, Algernon Brown and Paul Lasike played their hearts out, combining for 151 rushing yards in regulation. That opened up the passing offense, making Stewart more relaxed and buying more time in the pocket.

But as soon as overtime hit, Anae went back to the Utah State game plan—to make Stewart attack the defense with his arm. Although the rushing offense had been shredding UCF all night, every play Anae called in overtime was a passing one.

That alone cost BYU the game. And that's not to mention defensive coordinator Nick Howell's in-game shenanigans, when he was forced to play backup safety Kai Nacua:

Howell on Nacua: "He knows I didn't trust him. I was forced to throw him in, and he proved me wrong. He played good...he's a good player."

— Greg Wrubell (@gregwrubell) October 14, 2014

It's one thing to doubt your backup safety in a big situation, and it's another to tell him that you have trust issues. Forget Nacua—if I were BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall, the people I wouldn't trust are Howell and Anae.

Blame the refs, blame the injuries, but the coaching against UCF and Utah State—not to mention in the previous four games—has been downright ugly. If the Cougars can't clean things up soon, they could have a rough finish to the season.

For BYU fans, Friday night was an evening that few will quickly forget.

Taysom Hill started the home game against Utah State by shredding the Aggies, completing eight of 11 passes for 99 yards. He hurdled over two defenders for the game's first touchdown and seemed to be on his way to a great game.

But when he got up after a seemingly normal tackle, everyone in the stadium knew something was wrong. He waved over a teammate and coach and was practically carried to the trainer's table. Within minutes, he had a blow-up cast on his leg and was sent on a cart out of the stadium.

BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall confirmed on Monday that Hill underwent surgery over the weekend, but his injury was worse than expected—he shredded every major ligament. He will not be able to play for the remainder of the season.

So, what is next for the Cougars? Senior quarterback Christian Stewart played the second half against USU after Hill was injured and will start against UCF on Thursday. He is primarily a pocket passer—he can run when needed, though—and has a strong arm. He definitely tended to overthrow his receivers in the Utah State game, but that may just be a lack of in-game experience. 

Stewart had this to say, according to the Deseret News' Jeff Call: 

It’s a terrible thing that Taysom went down. No one wanted to see that. But if there’s a guy ready to step up to the challenge, it’s me. That’s why I came here, that’s what I’m about. I’m a leader. I’m a confident guy in my ability and I know my teammates have that same confidence in me and I could feel it. ... Going forward, we’re going to do some special things this season.

Stewart has no shortage of confidence in himself and his team, which is a good thing coming from a quarterback. But is the upcoming schedule favorable enough for him to actually carry BYU to a double-digit season?

Central Florida is next up for the Cougs, who travel to Orlando for the game on ESPN. The Knights defense has allowed less than 230 yards per game on average and ranks in the top 20 in sacks.

UCF safety Clayton Geathers may be the best defensive back in the American Athletic Conference and is one of the most underrated in the nation. Statistically, Geathers and the Knight secondary is the best BYU faces for the rest of the season.

After the trip to Florida, BYU plays Mountain West teams Nevada and Boise State. The Broncos lead the nation in passes intercepted and have a feisty pass rush. Nevada's defense isn't as strong on paper, but they did hold the FBS leader in passing touchdowns, Wazzu's Conner Halliday, to only one score.

BYU's next three games aren't too dangerous—the Cougs travel to Middle Tennessee State and then host UNLV and Savannah State. MTSU could be the toughest of the three, but the latter duo should be fairly easy games for Stewart and the Cougar offense.

The season finale at Cal is arguably the biggest game remaining on the schedule. The Golden Bears would be 5-0 if it weren't for a miraculous game-ending touchdown by Arizona and are currently first in the PAC-12 South.

Despite its outstanding offense, Cal's passing defense isn't extraordinary. It ranks dead last in the FBS in passing yards allowed and has given up at least 400 passing yards to every team except Northwestern and Sacramento State. Heck, they gave up 734 yards to Halliday and Washington State, which is—by far—his best total of the season.

BYU's schedule definitely looks tougher now that Taysom Hill is out, but the Cougs could still have a strong finish to the year. UCF, Boise State and Nevada will pose the biggest problems for Stewart and the offense, but if they can overcome that, it will be up to the defense to secure games.

Cal, MTSU and Boise have high-powered offenses that BYU will need to stop, but when it comes down to it, the Cougars are still talented enough to win the majority of their remaining games. Should they reach six wins (which is very likely), they will play an AAC team in the Miami Beach Bowl. It will be tough, but the Cougs could reach double-digit wins.

Besides, if anyone is up for the challenge, it's Christian Stewart.

“A game is a night and day difference than a practice,” said Stewart, per Call. “I’m not making any excuses. … But I’m definitely encouraged and I feel confident that going into Thursday against Central Florida we’re going to put up big numbers, we’re going to score touchdowns, and we’re going to win games.”

The BYU Cougars saw their unbeaten season come to an end last week and will try to move on without star quarterback Taysom Hill when they visit the Central Florida Knights Thursday. Hill fractured his leg in the first half of a 35-20 home loss to Utah State last Friday, as the Cougars were stunned as 21-point favorites and failed to cover the spread in their third straight game.

Point spread: Knights opened as three-point favorites at Bright House Networks Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 27.6-26.7 Cougars

Why the BYU Cougars can cover the spread

Hill’s loss is likely the difference in making BYU a road dog in this spot rather than a favorite, and maybe his teammates can rally around his absence to pull off the road victory. The Cougars have been double-digit favorites in four of their first five games this season, and the other game resulted in a 41-7 rout of Texas on the road in Week 2 as one-point underdogs.

They have not been on the road since then and covered two in a row away from home to start the season, beginning with a 35-10 win at Connecticut as a 15-point favorite.

Why the Central Florida Knights can cover the spread

The Knights have won their last two both straight up and against the spread since losing 38-10 at Missouri in their second game of the season. They are coming off a 17-12 road victory at Houston as 2.5-point underdogs and played very well defensively in holding the Cougars to just four field goals.

Central Florida picked off Houston quarterback John O’Korn twice in the win and also recovered a fumble, and the defense could again be the key against inexperienced BYU quarterback Christian Stewart, who will be making his first career start on the road and had attempted only two passes before replacing Hill in the last game.

Smart Pick

Hill was a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate for the Cougars this season, and he will be sorely missed. Stewart completed just 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions in relief of Hill last week, and that game was at home where he at least had the support of his own fans.

This will be a tough environment for Stewart to make his first start, and BYU will find it very hard to get past the loss of Hill here. The Knights have gone 7-2 ATS in their past nine home games, while the Cougars are 2-6 vs. the line in their last eight overall. Central Florida will make it eight of 10 covers at home with a double-digit win over BYU.

Trends

• BYU is 2-4 ATS in its last six games on the road
• Central Florida is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

For more than a month, BYU carried the banner for the little guy in the College Football Playoff.

The Cougars had cracked the Top 20. They were 4-0. They had solid wins over Texas and Virginia.

They had one of the most electric quarterbacks in the nation in junior Taysom Hill.

They were the only non-power-five team with a chance at crashing the Playoff party.

Friday night, those hopes and dreams came crashing down to earth in one fell swoop.

No. 18 BYU's 35-20 loss to in-state rival Utah State was doubly damaging. The Cougars lost for the first time this season. They also lost Hill for the rest of the season with a fractured left leg suffered late in the first half.

As expected, the College Football Playoff will be the playground of the big boys, the best of the best in the power-five conferences. BYU was the only non-power-five team with any kind of legitimate shot at making a run; Marshall is unbeaten and could easily make a run through Conference USA undefeated, but the Thundering Herd is unlikely to even play a Top 25 team the rest of the way.

The most interesting group-of-five team is now East Carolina, and while the Pirates (victors over ACC foes North Carolina and Virginia Tech) are interesting to watch, they've also lost to South Carolina and have no shot at Playoff contention.

It's kind of a coincidence that BYU even had the chance to make a run this fall. The Cougars were the last "little guy" to win a national title.

Playing in the out-of-the-way Western Athletic Conference in 1984, BYU, led by quarterback Robbie Bosco, went 13-0 en route to a national title. The Cougars did so out of the spotlight. They didn't play a New Year's Day bowl, finishing up by beating Michigan in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 21.

As an Independent, BYU is not even eligible for the group-of-five spot in the suite of games associated with the College Football Playoff that goes to the top non-power-five conference team.

Instead, the Cougars are all but locked into the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl against an American Athletic Conference foe.

That's a tough fate for a team that looked like a legit College Football Playoff party crasher.

The party ended when Hill suffered a fractured leg after a two-yard run late in the second quarter. Backup Christian Stewart led BYU to only six points the rest of the way, completing 10 of 29 passes for 172 yards. He also threw three picks in the second half. 

"Of course it's a big loss for us," wide receiver Jordan Leslie told reporters. "It knocks the wind out of us. He's a leader, he's a great athlete."

With games against Boise State, Central Florida and Cal left on the schedule, BYU would have been, at the very least, an interesting case for the College Football Playoff selection committee had it remained unbeaten.

Instead, the Playoff will be full of big names with no true underdog stories.

The Deseret News reported that Hill would undergo surgery Saturday morning and be sidelined three to four months. One night changed the trajectory of BYU's season dramatically, and that's tough for the Cougars, as well as fans of the underdog, to take.

The big story from this game, beyond the BYU loss, will be the loss of Heisman hopeful Taysom Hill after suffering a broken leg late in the second quarter.  The season-changing injury for the Cougars didn't, however, have as much impact on the game as many might have expected.

In the first half, Utah State had essentially dominated play, and went into halftime with a 14-point lead.  After the half, despite holding the Aggies in check a little better, the Cougars were unable to answer when it was needed most.  Perhaps Hill could have helped their cause, but it just seemed as all of the breaks (no pun intended) went the way of the Aggies.

Box score via NCAA.com

Pass Offense

We can really break these grades down into two quarterbacks.  Our first half grade, a C, really belongs to Taysom Hill and his receivers.  Meanwhile, the final grade belongs more to Christian Stewart.

Hill wasn't all that effective before his injury, going 8-of-11 for 99 yards and touchdown.  Not bad, but certainly not what we were expecting from the Heisman contender.

After halftime, Christian Stewart took over and went 10-of-29 for 172 yards.  He never found the end zone but found three Aggie defensive backs.

Because he was unexpectedly pressed into service, we're willing to give him a little bit of a break.  But not much of one.  A D+ is probably generous.

Run Offense

BYU ran the football 34 times for 154 yards and a touchdown, led by Jamaal Williams with 99 yards on 17 carries.  Overall, not a terrible evening, but the run game became irrelevant late in the game as the Cougars fell behind by three scores.

Still, a solid B+.

Pass Defense

Here is where the wheels really came off for the Cougars.

Utah State's Darell Garretson, a backup, remember, went 19-of-25 for 321 yards and three touchdowns.  Garrettson and his receivers constantly burned the Cougs' secondary deep, and BYU never really had an answer for the long bomb.

When BYU was able to get pressure on Garretson, it wasn't strong enough to contain him and prevent a throw or a solid scramble for positive yards.

If there was one facet of BYU's performance that cost them the game, this had to be it.  Because of the massive yards put up by a backup quarterback in a big rivalry game, we're handing out an ugly D to the pass defense.

Run Defense

The run defense, in contrast to the passing defense, was fairly solid.  No Utah State rusher had more than 57 yards, but the Cougars did allow two rushing touchdowns (although one was on a broken pass play scramble from Garretson).

If Utah State hadn't been able to throw as effectively as it did, this game would have been much different, given the decent night the front seven had when defending the run.  A straight B for the boys up front should be a nice consolation on an otherwise awful night for BYU.

Special Teams

Special teams were a mixed bag.  After a questionable first half, a couple of big plays in the second half gave BYU at least a chance to get back into the game.  Of course, the biggest play came on what appeared to be a short kickoff that was muffed by Utah State and recovered by BYU.  Unfortunately, an offside penalty negated the recover and BYU was forced to re-kick.

Special teams were also the only way BYU could score after the half, with a pair of field goals.  We upgraded the first half C to a final B-.

Coaching

Bronco Mendenhall has a sterling reputation as a head coach, and for good reason.  Unfortunately, we didn't see the greatest of nights from him or his staff against Utah State.

BYU was constantly put behind the eight ball, and there didn't seem to be enough impetus to get back into the game late into the second half.  We will, however, give credit to the coaching staff for keeping the team's heads up after Hill went down to injury.  At the end of the first half, BYU looked flat and a bit dejected.  After halftime, for a while, the Cougars seemed to be playing with energy.

But, as we mentioned, once Utah State extended its lead to three scores, all of the wind left the BYU sails.  And the coaching staff wasn't able to pull the team out of the doldrums.

Unless otherwise noted, quotes or references to quotes were obtained firsthand by the writer.

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Updates from Wednesday, Oct. 8 

Jay Drew of The Salt Lake Tribune provides an update on Taysom Hill's recovery:

Updates from Monday, Oct 6

Bronco Mendenhall discussed Taysom Hill's injury on Monday, via Jay Drew of the Salt Lake Tribune:

BYU quarterback Taysom Hill suffered a fractured left leg in that loss, and on Monday Mendenhall said the injury was "worse" than expected when doctors performed surgery on Saturday morning.

Toward the end of this video, Mendenhall describes the extent of the injury. He said a plate and eight screws were inserted into Hill’s leg, and that major ligaments were shredded.

Updates from Sunday, Oct. 5

Taysom Hill updated his status via his Twitter account following surgery:

Updates from Saturday, Oct. 4

Rich Cirminiello of Campus Insiders confirms the diagnosis on Hill's leg:

Original Text

BYU quarterback Taysom Hill suffered a fractured leg injury and left the game against Utah State in the second quarter.

The Cougars' official account reported the news on Hill's injury during the Friday night game:

BYU Game Notes also reported that it was indeed fractured:

ESPN College Football passed along a look at the scene on the sideline:

Along with BYU entering the national picture after a 4-0 start, Hill has emerged as one of the best young quarterbacks in the country. The dual-threat quarterback has compiled 975 passing yards, 463 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns.

Christian Stewart will be the quarterback under center if Hill misses more time, but BYU's offense certainly won't be the same.

Brigham Young and Utah State have met each of the last six seasons, and while the Cougars won five of those contests, the Aggies covered the spread in five of those last six meetings. BYU and USU get together for the 84th time overall, the 61st time for the Old Wagon Wheel, Friday night in Provo.

Point spread: The Cougars opened as 21-point favorites at LaVell Edwards Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report). 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 32.5-19.3 Cougars

Why the Utah State Aggies can cover the spread

The Aggies are 2-2 straight up (SU), with their two losses coming at Tennessee and, two weeks ago, at Arkansas State. They then had last week off. Three weeks ago, Utah State beat Wake Forest 36-24, but because they gave up a score on an interception return, the Aggies came up short in covering the spread as 15-point favorites.

USU then lost to the Red Wolves 21-14 in overtime, missing on the cover as a three-point dog even though it outgained ASU by almost 100 yards while winning the time-of-possession battle by a 32-28 margin. The Aggies have outgained their last three opponents by 90 yards per game, and they outrushed them by over 100 yards per game.

Why the BYU Cougars can cover the spread

The Cougars are 4-0 SU, 2-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, with road wins at Connecticut and at Texas and home victories over Houston and Virginia. BYU outgained its first three opponents by 175 yards per game and outrushed them by over 200 yards per game.

The Cougars struggled a bit two weeks ago with the Cavaliers, but they rallied and actually had the 14-point spread covered a couple of times, before allowing a score with two minutes to go to give up the cash.

BYU is averaging 450 yards per game on offense, 231 yards per game on the ground, while allowing just 89 yards per game rushing. And quarterback Taysom Hill is back to working his magic, completing 67 percent of his throws, with six touchdown passes, while leading the team in rushing with 428 yards and seven more scores.

Smart Pick

Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton missed the game against Arkansas State with a sore knee, and his status for Friday is uncertain. Without him, the Aggies are more one dimensional on offense, which doesn't bode well going against a good BYU defense. So while the linesmakers were hesitant to put out an early line on this game, the pick, regardless, goes with the Cougars, minus the points.

Trends

• Utah State is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing BYU.
• BYU is 5-1 SU in its last six games.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates and get the free odds tracker app.