Wigan Athletic

Halfway through the Premier League season, we have a pretty good idea which teams will end up where.

Here's my take on the fate of the five bottom-feeders...

 

20. Derby County

Derby, still on single-digit points, look bound for the Championship after just one season.

The big question is whether Paul Jewell and his backroom staff can turn it around. As it stands, Derby are eight points adrift of 19th-place Fulham—and a long, long way from the 40-point safety landmark.

To their credit, Derby have brought in some experienced players, namely ex-England international Danny Mills, former Newcastle winger Laurent Robert, and Blackburn midfielder Robbie Savage.  They also continue to be linked with players such as Spurs' Hossam Ghaly and Rangers' goalkeeper Roy Carroll.

Robert has public stated he expects to be playing in the Championship next season.  Can these acquisitions pull a miracle?

 

19. Fulham

This is Fulham's eighth year in the Premiership. Is this the season the run finally comes to a halt?

Fulham have been underperforming this year. They normally sit comfortably at mid-table—but they haven't improved since last season, when manager Lawrie Sanchez avoided relegation.

I personally really like this team, especially the American presence of Kasey Keller, Carlos Bocanegra, Clint Dempsey, and Brian McBride.  Fulham have a better chance than Derby—let's hope's the new gaffer can get the job done.

 

18. Sunderland

Sunderland had a pretty good start to the season.

But the Black Cats, led by Roy Keane, have since dropped back down the relegation zone with 17 points, tied with 16th-place Wigan, although with an inferior goal-difference.

Boasting many former Red Devil players including Dwight Yorke, Kieran Richardson, Paul McShane, and most recently Johnny Evans, the club look like a good bet to escape relegation.  

 

17. Wigan

Most football fans will remember that Wigan's debut season in the Premiership saw them climb as high as second, and produced a respectable top-10 finish.

Well, one-and-a-half seasons later, things have been changed.

With the departure of Paul Jewell, Wigan seem to have lost "it."

Wigan do in fact have the talent—skipper Mario Melchiot, and vice-captains Emile Heskey and Kevin Kilbane.  In addition, they have the pacey winger Antonio Valencia to provide depth.

The club's form has shown improvement in recent games.  Whether they have the ability to stay up is another matter.

 

16. Birmingham

The Blues sit two points ahead of Wigan, and at this stage are still not very safe from  relegation.

This club has drawn my special attention, as a businessman from my native Hong Kong, Carson Yeung, has the controlling stake in Birmingham.       

All told, Birmingham are decent team.  They showed their solid defence when United barely scraped a 1-0 win against them.  It was quite a nervy final 10 minutes for United fans, as we saw U-21 Dutch winger Daniel De Ridder run down the flanks and pose a constant threat.

With Djourou rejoining Arsenal, Birmingham have a diminished defense that needs some shoring up.  In my opinion, they won't ride the "relegation elevator" this season.


This is the first part of a four part series of articles that will provide insight on every team in the Premiership.  Although the standings will change over the weekend,  I'll pick up with the next five teams on the table.

If one thing is ever for certain in football, it’s that nothing is certain.

On the eve of England’s crucial “must not lose” Euro 2008 qualifier against Croatia, lanky striker Peter Crouch was already talking up the Three Lions’ chances of going all the way in Austria and Switzerland. Sadly for Peter’s prediction, winning the competition meant qualifying for the final tournament and Mladen Petric’s 77th minute winner made sure the national team were going to have a football free summer next year.

Certainty just does not exist in football. There are too many factors. Margins for error are so tight that a goal here or a red card there can completely unbalance the most obvious of outcomes. There is an unfairness that comes from the certainty of these outcomes.  Victory and success is celebrated by everyone from chairmen, shareholders, managers, players and supporters.

The rewards of success for those celebrating may be different, whether it’s cash bonuses, prestige or bragging rights but the situation is none the less jubilant. The impact of failure on the other hand is starkly different between those who have been defeated.

Although it is the eleven men on the field who carry the hopes of the team, any lack of success falls squarely at the feet of the manager. As Steve McLaren found out and Sven Goran Eriksson before him. The playing staff were relatively unchanged, the tactics were similar but both were relieved of their duties. Does this mean that they did a poor job or does it mean that they did the best with the materials they had to work with?

Already in the Premiership this season six club bosses who began the campaign in August have failed to make it until Christmas. Bolton promoted Sammy Lee to the managerial hotseat after several years as coach under Sam Allardyce, who was off to take the helm at Newcastle. Little Sammy’s Bolton team was essentially the same as when Big Sam was at The Reebok Stadium but a run of bad results meant Lee was unemployed by September, only 3 months after taking charge. Bolton has since brought in Gary Megson and with the same players as his predecessors has put together a decent run of results. Sammy Lee may, quite rightly, feel hard done by. Is 3 months really enough time to decide whether or not someone is good enough for the job?

Martin Jol suffered a similar fate at Tottenham. Just 2 months into the season and after back to back 5th place finishes his position was made untenable by a mixture of poor results and underhandedness from the board. He even suffered the ignominy of being virtually the last man at White Hart Lane, including the fans, to discover he was out of a job. Did a man who had brought Spurs so close to Champions League qualification in consecutive seasons, only deserve 2 months of the new campaign in which to work his magic again?

Since Jol was shown the door at Spurs, Chris Hutchings at Wigan (3 months in charge) and Billy Davies at Derby (whom he got promoted last season) have been unceremoniously given the elbow by their respective clubs. It seems that in the world of top flight football the cost of defeat by far outweighs the gains of victory. A small club like Wigan exist only to survive in the Premiership. With the lack of quality and funds they have winning the league is out of the question however all the parachute payments in the world cannot prevent a club from feeling the impact of relegation. So maintaining their top flight status is the clubs goal from day one and this can sometimes be just as challenging as mounting a challenge for the title.

With this in mind the replacements drafted in to save those clubs in trouble are generally very curious. Wigan has appointed Steve Bruce, a man who has been in charge of six clubs in 9 years and who went down with Birmingham City only 18 months ago.

Derby too has brought in a man who is all too familiar with relegation dogfights. Paul Jewell’s Wigan team were only 90 minutes away from the drop in May but survived and it seems now that he is the man to rescue Derby from their plight.

What we see is almost musical chairs with managers at the bottom clubs switching seats in a vain attempt to stem the tide of failure. The chairmen of these clubs seem happy to appoint men who are experienced in fighting against failure week in week out, rather than searching for the man who could take them to that next level. There is always a wide gulf between getting promoted and staying up the next year.

Only a handful of teams have got up and stayed up. At the very top of the Premiership now there are two men who between them have over 30 years in charge at their clubs and it is no coincidence that they are the most successful teams in the 15 years since the Premiership was born. Only a handful of clubs throughout the division can boast a manger that has spent more than 2 years at the club.

So what do we learn from all this? Football clubs are like families and the more stable they are the happier everyone is and the more successful everyone becomes. With the transfer windows on offer, managers have only two months in the summer and one month in January to replace and strengthen their teams.

With no such window set aside for the appointment of managers if a set of players are failing to perform it makes sense to replace the man who is in charge. A new man is brought in to work with the same players until he can bring in his own and the cycle begins again.

The need for periodical change of manager is endemic for all but a few clubs. Where one man fails another is always there to take his place. So perhaps there is some certainty in football after all.