South Africa Rugby

The final round of fixtures in the Premier Division of South Africa's Currie Cup takes place this weekend, with three sides competing for the final two playoff places.

With Western Province and the Natal Sharks already safely through to the playoffs, it is left to the Cheetahs, the Lions and the Blue Bulls to slog it out in the final round for a shot at lifting the 2013 title.

The Griquas, meanwhile, are consigned to bottom place in the standings and have already turned their attention to the impending relegation playoff.

Golden Lions 30-10 Griquas

Golden Lions coach Johan Ackermann is boosted by the return of Springbok lock Franco van der Merwe as his side seek the win over the Griquas, they need to seal a semifinal place.

With the Griquas choosing to rest their star players ahead of upcoming promotion-relegation playoffs, per Rugby Week, there could well be the opportunity for Ackermann's side to run up a big score.

The Griquas have a good defensive record in the tournament, claiming five bonus points for losing by fewer than seven points this campaign.

Despite the presence of international Willie Le Roux, 10 changes is too much for any side to mount a formidable challenge—yet alone a side already bottom of the table.

Cheetahs 25-18 Bulls

The remaining two sides in the hunt of a semifinal place meet at the Free State stadium later in the evening, knowing that they likely need a win to progress to the semifinals.

Indeed, by the time the game kicks off they will know the result of the earlier fixture and, most likely, the Lions will have secured their place in the last four.

Adriaan Strauss and Coenie Oosthuizen return from international duty to line up in the front row for the Cheetahs—an area where they will look to dominate their opponents. However, the Blue Bulls welcome back two Springboks of their own in centres JJ Engelbrecht and Jan Serfontein, per Rugby Week.

Should the Lions win, the Bulls would need to overturn a 22-point difference to reach the semifinals, as well as claim a try bonus point. Even winning the game in Bloemfontein, though, is a significant ask.

Sharks 20-19 Western Province

The final match of Saturday evening sees the Sharks host Western Province in what could well be a dry run for the final, with both teams set to host their respective semifinals.

A host of Springbok stars return for both sides, although Western Province have opted to rest international captain Jean de Villiers; with top spot up for grabs, we should be in for an enthralling contest.

Neither side will want to lose momentum ahead of upcoming challenges, and both teams will be aware of the likelihood of another matchup in a fortnight's time. A psychological boost now would help considerably.

The Sharks' international front row returning, per BDLive, should be enough to see them home in front of their passionate supporters, but they will not find it easy against an excellent Western Province side.

As Supersport point out, securing top spot also secures a lucrative financial windfall for the union that holds the final, so expect fireworks.

In previewing Argentina's second season in the Rugby Championship, we know one thing for certain: Statistically, the chances of them winning their opening clash against South Africa on Saturday are very much against them.

The Pumas have never beaten the Springboks in 15 meetings and the odds are stacked against them improving that win-loss ratio when they meet at Soccer City in Soweto.

They may have held the Boks to a 16-16 draw the last time they met, but they were driven by the added passion from it being their home debut in the competition and South Africa will have learnt from that clash. 

Several factors are likely to decide the outcome of the game in Soweto. 

Breakdown Contest 

While the Pumas' back row is missing inspirational skipper and star player Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe through injury, the Boks have selected a trio which could serve them through to the World Cup in two years' time. 

Number eight Duane Vermeulen was arguably the Boks' star performer in last year's tournament and he is flanked by Francois Louw and the giant Willem Alberts.  

Crucial to the Pumas' chances will be preventing them securing quick ball for their talented backs and that is why the absence of Lobbe could hit them so hard. 

Pablo Matera moves flanks to cover Lobbe's place, and while replacement Juan Martin Leguizamon is an experienced operator there is no denying the Pumas will miss their skipper's exceptional defence.

Pumas hooker Eusebio Guinazu and wing Horacio Agulla also know Louw well from playing together for English club Bath and have identified him as a threat at the breakdown.

As Guinazu told SA Rugby Magazine: 

You just can't let him get over the ball, you can't give him a chance because he will punish you. 

We've just got to make sure that our ball-carriers stay on their feet for as long as possible, that they don't get isolated and Flo comes into play.

Jean De Villiers v Felipe Contepomi

In the absence of Fernandez Lobbe, Pumas great Felipe Contepomi takes over the skipper's armband and will be directly facing Boks captain Jean de Villiers in midfield. 

Both are hugely experienced and amongst the most capped players for their countries, with de Villiers on 87 and Contepomi on 81. 

But while the South African is still just about at the peak of his powers, at 35 Contepomi's best years are undoubtedly behind him. The Stade Francais player returned to the Pumas this summer against England after supposedly retiring from the international game. 

The two-Test series did not go well for Contepomi. The Pumas were thumped in both games and the veteran struggled against the speed and bite of an exciting England back line. 

De Villiers and his fellow backs will look to exploit any apparent weakness in Contepomi's channel and it promises to be a long afternoon at the coalface for the Pumas skipper. 

The Springboks' skipper is certainly prepared for another tough battle, as reported by SuperSport.

They’ve [Argentina] been in the competition now for one year, and more importantly for us, we know where we are at as a team. We know what to expect, but we also know what to expect from ourselves and the standards that we have for this team.

Coming into the competition last year they definitely had a point to prove, and they definitely show they belong in this competition. They did well and were competitive throughout the campaign.

Obviously we can’t make too much of their performances against England because that was their second-stringers that played. They’ve been together for a long time now. They will be well prepared, and it definitely won’t be an easy game or an easy campaign.

 

Squad Depth 

Although Argentinean rugby is in better shape than ever before, below their best starting XV they still lack players of proven international quality. 

The situation is improving and regular competition in the Rugby Championship will keep it on an upward curve. 

But whereas South Africa can bring on players of the quality of Fourie du Preez, Bismarck de Plessis and Jan Serfontein after 60 minutes to replace tired legs, the Pumas have no such luxury in terms of quality replacements. 

Argentina were at their most vulnerable in the final quarter of their games last year, and teams will look to take advantage of that more so this season.

Prediction 

South Africa to win by 15 points.

Argentina will be as competitive as ever, but the Boks' class will tell as the game goes on.

They also will want to make amends for the draw last time they met and put a smile on the faces of a packed FNB Stadium celebrating Nelson Mandela Sport and Culture day.

South Africa will open their 2013 Rugby Championship campaign determined to improve on their last meeting with Argentina when they were held to a 16-16 draw by the tournament newcomers.

While there is certainly no shame in failing to beat an uncompromising Pumas side making their home debut in the Championship, the result is relevant because it accurately reflects the Springboks’ unconvincing form over the last year.

Heyneke Meyer’s side may have won their last six matches—three last autumn in Europe and three at home this summer—but the reality is that they are still some way off reaching the standards expected of a demanding public still hankering back to the feats of the all-conquering 2007 World Cup-winning side.

Indeed, had it not been for a couple of contentious decisions in their summer clash with Scotland, the visitors would likely have recorded their first win on South African soil.

The Springboks were also held to a 14-14 draw at home last summer by an inexperienced England side and lost to New Zealand (twice) and Australia in the inaugural Rugby Championship. This year's Championship promises to be even more challenging due to the current size of the Boks' injury list.

Despite their strength in depth, South Africa have failed to properly replace the likes of John Smit, Victor Matfield, Percy Montgomery, Os du Randt and Bakkies Botha.

They also have missed the services of inspirational flanker Schalk Burger, now back in training after missing the whole of 2012 but still unavailable for the upcoming Rugby Championship along with a host of other absentees.

As Burger told the South Africa Rugby Union official website SARugby.net:

To give a timeline is quite difficult... I certainly don't want to over-commit.

The good news is that I can start to train properly and get the heart-rate up. That, in itself, is exciting news and I look forward to increasing my training schedule over the next few weeks with the help of the strength and conditioning team at WP Rugby. We will then reasses things again in a month's time.

The latest addition to the Boks' injury list is the Bulls' livewire scrum-half-cum-wing Francois Hougaard, who misses the rest of the season with a knee injury.

As Brendan Nel of Supersport reports, Hougaard joins a list long enough to concern even the most confident Boks fans.

Other players who will miss out are injured Pierre Spies, Arno Botha, Frans Steyn, Frans Malherbe and Pieter-Steph du Toit. JP Pietersen and Andries Bekker are also not available as they have commitments at their Japanese clubs and therefore won’t be selected.

After an outstanding Super 15 career with the Bulls and Stormers, it looks likely the Springboks' all-time leading try-scorer Bryan Habana will also be unavailable for the Rugby Championship after joining French giants Toulon.

The Boks will miss Habana's devastating speed as well the experience of a player who boasts Rugby World Cup and Super Rugby titles on his outstanding resume.

Any suggestions the 30-year-old may be past his best can be dismissed with this superb finish against the All Blacks last year.

Some good news is that their star performer from last year's Rugby Championship, No. 8 Duane Vermeulen, is back in training with Western Province after a serious knee injury and should be available for selection.

The Boks will need all the help they can get if they are to improve on last year's third place in the standings with just two wins from six games.

South Africa 2013 Rugby Championship Schedule

Aug. 17 v Argentina (Soweto)

Aug. 24 v Argentina (Mendoza)

Sept. 7 v Australia (Brisbane)

Sept. 14 v New Zealand (Auckland)

Sept. 28 v Australia (Cape Town)

Oct. 5 v New Zealand (Johannesburg)

New Zealand has blown their way through the field en route to clinching the 2012 Rugby Championship with a resounding 54-15 victory against Argentina on September 29.

The ultimate outcome may already be decided, but the powerhouse All Blacks do have one more hurdle to clear on Saturday. A hungry South Africa team is the host, and the Springboks are sure to take the de facto test match very seriously with national pride still on the line.

Here is what you need to know about the final match for the soon-to-be world champions of rugby, facing the team that will attempt to make a dent in their perfect 5-0 tournament record.

When: Saturday, October 6, 9:30 pm ET

Where: FNB Stadium, Johannesburg, South Africa

Watch: SKY Sports 1

Live Stream: TheRugbyChampionship.livesport.tv

All Blacks Player to Watch: Dan Carter

Carter is one of the best fly-halves in the world, and serves as the catalyst for New Zealand's offensive attack.

He has most recently worked his way through a calf injury and back into the lineup, returning more firepower to his club's offense.

Twenty-three-year-old Aaron Cruden played admirably in his place, but Carter has capitalized on many conversions and penalties for his team throughout the championship.

If he has a characteristically stellar game, then the veteran should do enough to lead his team past the Springboks.

Springboks Player to Watch: Bryan Habana

The superstar winger has managed to notch a try in four of the five rounds, and will need to continue that trend in order to give his team a chance against the All Blacks.

Habana seems to thrive on the biggest stages, as he recorded a record-tying eight tries in the 2007 World Cup, which the Springboks ultimately won. This tournament has provided a brand new proving grounds for the prolific scorer, and he has not disappointed.

Squaring off against the youthful and scrappy lock duo of Luke Romano and Sam Whitelock will provide a demanding test once again, and Habana must rise to the occasion as he always seems to do.

Key Storylines: In the inaugural alternative to the Tri Nations, the Springboks gave the All Blacks their toughest physical test of the Championship tournament, falling in Round 4 by a score of 21-11.

New Zealand has won four of the past five meetings, but the past two have been split. It is now South Africa who will be playing for revenge this time around.

Both teams really have nothing to lose, but the Springboks would love to pull off the upset with a home crowd behind them.

Prediction: The All Blacks are simply too tough and disciplined defensively. Even though South Africa will be rallying and playing an inspired, hotly contested match, New Zealand has been a stalwart.

As worldcupweb.com points out, the All Blacks were able to win last year's match against South Africa despite rotating their lineup to give top players rest ahead of the Rugby World Cup.

The All Blacks should go on the road and win this one, 23-15.

It was another brutal performance that saw the Springboks salvage some pride and claim a 31-8 win over the Wallabies in Pretoria. The Springboks dominated every facet of the game, as they proved far too good for the Australians, ensuring they never really fired a shot.

And it could have been so much more had the Springboks' kickers' radar been more accurate. Sixteen points went begging as Ruan Pienaar and Johan Goosen combined to miss six kicks, making just three in a statistic that was reminiscent of two weeks earlier in Dunedin.

But the dominance of this Springbok team ensured this make a great deal of difference, handing the Wallabies precious few chances and taking their own well to score five tries to one.

It wasn’t just that they were scoring tries either, it was the way that they were scoring them. Finally, they have made use of what is a deadly back line, and looked dangerous doing it. They looked to move the ball, playing with width and chancing their arm with a handful of offloads. It was this, along with a dominant forward pack, that gave the Wallaby defence so many problems and finally showed that South Africa don’t have to rely on kicking to win them games.

The forwards brought a physicality to their game that the Wallabies simply couldn’t match and ensured they had good ball to play such an expansive game. This could be seen directly by the high injury toll experienced by the Australians, as they were forced to finish the game with just 14 players after having run out of substitutions. It is hard to play rugby on the back foot, but it is made even harder when the team is continually being changed the way the Wallabies were having to. They weren’t able to get any flow on, and only Kurtley Beale ever looked like threatening in the back line.

Bryan Habana was the star of the show, touching down for three tries and hustling around the field. After a drop in form in 2010 and 2011, he is finally getting back to his best, and over the past month has reminded us why many once considered him to be the best winger in the world. Indeed, on current form you would be hard pressed to find one better.

But it was the men inside Habana that provided the grunt and the spark that enabled him to shine. The forwards operated well, as the set piece provided the backs with good ball, and they were generally too strong at breakdown time. Francois Louw was the best of them, as he fought for possession well at ruck time whilst also proving a valuable ball runner, scoring a try and setting up Habana for the final try.

Adriaan Strauss was strong too, whilst Willem Alberts was adept at getting his team on the front foot. Both locks were also outstanding, winning lineout ball and getting through plenty of work.

The nine-ten duo of Ruan Pienaar and Johan Goosen operated well in their first start together. Pienaar controlled the game well and kicked well, whilst Goosen was the playmaker of the back line and ran well. Out wide, Zane Kirchner showed what a dangerous runner he can be, and was perhaps unlucky to be dragged as early as he was.

For the Wallabies there was little to write home about. Kurtley Beale looked dangerous at times and kicked well but struggled behind a forward pack that was beaten up. Outside him, no one impressed, as the back line never really fired a shot, being met by the brick wall that was the Springbok defensive line.

Both teams will now look ahead to next week as they play their final games in the Rugby Championship for 2012. The Springboks will host the All Blacks in a game that will be a war in every sense of the word should they bring the same physicality they brought to this game. Meanwhile, the Wallabies will travel to Argentina where they will take on a Pumas side hungry for their first win.

In their 49-3 win over Fiji, defending World Cup Champion South Africa played like a well-oiled machine.

The Springboks were able to roll over their feisty opponent with a combination of intelligent play and powerful running.

All game, South Africa placed the ball well after they were tackled, when they kicked and when they passed. This ensured they were in the right position to break Fiji's tackles or simply evade defenders all together.

In the first half of the match, the difference maker was penalties. South Africa attempted five penalty kicks and converted on three of them, giving them an extra nine points and a comfortable lead going into the break.

The second half was all South Africa, as they upped the intensity and really showed why they are still in the running for their second consecutive World Cup title.

South Africa scored four more tries in the second half and were seemingly unstoppable. Though both teams were about equal in most statistical categories, it was the experience and efficiency of South Africa that allowed them to take control of the match.

In World Cup play, little mistakes can hive big consequences and, unfortunately for Fiji, South Africa took full advantage of every error.

Namibia should have been taking notes on just how dangerous South Africa can be. The two teams meet on September 22 in Auckland. Namibia is yet to win a match at the World Cup and are coming off of a beating at the hands of Samoa. It should be no contest for South Africa.

As for Fiji, the road gets no easier, as they prepare for Samoa, who they meet on September 25.

Week three was an interesting week indeed, with some notable "upsets" taking place. Firstly, the win by the Lions against Griquas was not entirely unexpected.

However, what was unexpected was the massive margin of victory put forth by the men in red and white. They made it look easy in racking up a 11-49 scoreline in one of the hardest venues in the country was impressive.

The Lions have definitely made a massive statement with this win.

The Bulls also somewhat surprisingly won against the more fancied Cheetahs outfit, winning with a close fought 33-30 encounter at Loftus.

What was impressive was the spirit and way the Bulls rallied back to win from 3-17 down. The win will definitely settle the nerves among this young side for the rest of the competition.

Western Province showed glimpses in their 9-47 victory against the Leopards, easily picking up the bonus point in the process.

The Sharks were also given a major scare against the Pumas, who have definitely been the unluckiest team in the competition so far.

The Sharks, like the Lions a week earlier, will consider themselves fortunate to come back from Mpumalanga with the win. Still, a "win is a win" as the old saying goes, and they will take it.

Here are my previews/predictions for this weekend's action:

Friday, 29 July

Pumas vs Griquas, 7pm

The Pumas will be confident coming off the back of two very narrow defeats. However, it won't be enough to stop a Griquas outfit who will be wanting to bounce back after their mauling to the Lions. Griquas to win a close encounter by less then ten points.

Saturday, 30 July

Sharks vs Cheetahs, 3pm

The Cheetahs have been regarded as the Sharks' "bogey" team, and expect this to continue on Saturday with the Cheetahs winning a very close encounter by about five points.

Lions vs Leopards, 5pm

The Lions will be brimming with confidence after their demolition last week. Expect the Leopards to get the same treatment with the Lions cruising to a win by about 25 points.

Western Province vs Bulls, 5pm

By far the hardest choice of the weekend, the North/South rivalry will be its usual bruising affair. It could really go either way. The Bulls will be tough to beat, but home ground advantage will swing it. Province to win by less then seven points.

Even though it's only one week into the competition, the first round of the ABSA Currie Cup did deliver some warning signs for the rest of the competition.

Firstly, the Sharks and Cheetahs have set the bar with their performances after trouncing their opponents the Bulls (35-16) and Leopards (40-12) respectively.

But it was the Sharks whose performance that really stood out, especially the ease in which the young players slotted into the team. This win will give them confidence and will make them difficult to stop.

The Griquas also showed they are not a team to be taken lightly as they were impressive in their 26-26 draw against Western Province. I said in my previous article that it is their away form that will determine their campaign, and this is certainly a great start.

Griquas impressed in their defensive effort, holding out wave after wave of attack. WP showed glimpses but will need to improve their finishing dramatically if they are to seriously challenge.

The Pumas were extremely unlucky not to have walked away with a win at Ellis Park as they were denied by a plucky, tired-looking Lions outfit. The Lions will take the win but will need to seriously pick up the pace.

Which brings us to Round 2, and my predictions for this week:

Friday, 22 July

Leopards vs Western Province, 19h00

Western Province will be disappointed with the draw and will be hungry to make up for it. They need to settle as a unit, and this fixture provides the perfect opportunity.

Caution should be taken, however, as the Leopards won't be an easy walk-over on the dry fields of Potchefstroom. WP should still win fairly comfortably by about 17 points.

Pumas vs Sharks, 19h00

The Pumas are never easy opponents on their home soil, and the Sharks won't have it all their own way. After some initial resistance, the Sharks will eventually walk out winners by about 12 points.

Saturday, 23 July

Griquas vs Lions, 15h00

Kimberley is the last place you want to visit if your side is under pressure and in need of a good performance, as Griquas usually make life very comfortable for visiting teams.

Expect this to continue with the Griquas walking out winners of a high-scoring encounter by 10 points.

Blue Bulls vs Cheetahs, 17h00

 The Cheetahs have a good record at Loftus in recent years, winning this corresponding fixture last year. This will most likely continue as the Cheetahs have a more settled combination.

That being said, the Blue Bulls often like to strike back after a defeat. Cheetahs will win a close match by eight points.