Why It Doesn't Make Any Sense for the Penguins to Trade Jake Guentzel

First-year general manager Kyle Dubas came in with a mission to revive the Pittsburgh Penguins. In 2023, the organization missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Dubas was aggressive in his attempt to build a team that could contend for a fourth Stanley Cup during the Crosby/Malkin/Letang Era. A blockbuster move for Erik Karlsson was supplemented with the additions of Rielly Smith, Ryan Graves, Lars Eller and Noel Acciari.
It isn't working. Roughly two-thirds of the way into the season the Penguins sit seventh out of eight teams in the Metropolitan Divison. They are 11 points out of a wild-card spot, though they have games in hand, and The Athletic's model gives them a 37 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The tide has turned toward the possibility of the Penguins becoming trade-deadline sellers. TSN's Pierre LeBrun stated that Dubas is "listening on pretty much everyone on his roster other than his core guys." Dubas did not exactly shut that down.
The most prominent player the Penguins could move is Jake Guentzel. The 29-year-old left wing is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July. Despite an injury that will keep him out for a month, Guentzel would instantly become the best winger—if not player—available on the trade market. Guentzel is currently fourth on TSN's "trade bait" list, and Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman claimed he believes a trade is "more likely" than not.
In theory, this would be standard procedure for any team that is likely to miss the playoffs for a second successive season. Trade older players at the ends of their deals in return for future assets and then embark on a retool or rebuild.
The quick turnaround move can work. The Detroit Red Wings were in a similar position last season and decided to pull the plug on the season, trading pending UFA Tyler Bertuzzi to the Bruins for their first-round pick and a fourth-round pick. General manager Steve Yzerman then moved that same pick a few months later to the Ottawa Senators as part of a deal to acquire Alex deBrincat, who is both a better player and over three years younger.
It's hard to envision a similar move for Pittsburgh. Since his first full season in 2017-18, Guentzel ranks ninth in the NHL in 5v5 goals and 18th in total goals. He's been a point-per-game player for the Penguins in 58 playoff games.
Is some of his success attributable to the fact that Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are feeding him scoring chances? Yes, but that works both ways. Guentzel, despite being just 5'11" and 180 pounds, is one of the best players in the league below the faceoff circles. He knows how to get open in dangerous areas, receive a pass on his tape, and put the puck where the goalie can't get it. He can do it off the rush, and he can do it in crowds of bigger players.
The list of NHL wingers who can do those specific things is limited; perhaps only Kyle Connor, David Pastrňák, Mikko Rantanen, Carter Verhaeghe, and Matthew Tkachuk are on Guentzel's level or better.
Can the Penguins flip Guentzel's return around for an upgrade? Or, at least, a similar but younger player? It's possible, but there are no obvious candidates. Defenseman Jakob Chychrun might be available in Ottawa, but the price will be massive. Could a disastrous end to the Leafs' season lead to Mitch Marner hitting the trade block? Will Elias Pettersson become available?
The number of players on that list who could be available for the price of a first-round pick and some add-ons might be zero. Moving Guentzel now in hopes of a summer payoff is a massive risk that is more likely to blow up in Pittsburgh's face than it is to bear fruit.
So what about a lengthier type of regroup? Maybe the Penguins spend a few seasons accumulating assets, banking cap space and planning for one last push during the Crosby era two and three seasons down the line.
That's what the Penguins should have done two years ago when the team had clearly run out of juice. Instead, the organization's management at the time tried a half-baked plan to trade more picks and prospects for players who did not materially change the team's outlook.
In 2024, that concept may be past its expiration date. Next season, Crosby and Letang will open the season at 37 years old. Malkin will be 38. Karlsson will be the "baby" of the core at 34. If these four are all even in the NHL multiple years from now, they're not going to be at the same level. Father Time comes for everyone. As a top-heavy team dependent on them to carry the load, that doesn't offer a promising outlook.

The Boston Bruins have been able to deal with departures and declining veterans like Patrice Bergeron, David Krejčí and Zdeno Chara because of new star players ascending. David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are superstars, while other good young players like Brandon Carlo and Jake Debrusk have stepped up.
No similar passing of the torch is coming in Pittsburgh. The Penguins have paid the price for a decade in which the team all but emptied the cupboard of meaningful prospects and draft picks, highlighted by their trading six first-round picks and acquired none. There is not a single player under the age of 27 who can reliably play on a top-three forward line or top-two defensive pairing. The youngest forward who fits that label is Rickard Rakell, who turns 31 in May.
It's not any better below the NHL roster. The Penguins have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. Brayden Yager (19) and Owen Pickering (20) are the only two skaters in the organization with realistic upside as difference makers, years away from making any impact.
Crosby is still playing at an elite level despite his age. That can only be counted on for so long. Once his play drops off, the Penguins will be forced to embark on the ugliest rebuild the NHL has seen during the salary cap era, and acquiring a few assets in return for Jake Guentzel would not change the outlook in the slightest.
The Penguins are right to wave the flag on this season and sell off spare parts, but there is no future to speak of. This organization has a couple more shots at a fourth Stanley Cup during the Crosby era before a long period of pain. The focus needs to be exclusively on that.
Moving Jake Guentzel will make that already arduous task a lot more difficult.