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Why It Doesn't Make Any Sense for the Penguins to Trade Jake Guentzel

Adam Herman
Feb 25, 2024
WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 09: Penguins left wing Jake Guentzel (59) and center Sidney Crosby (87) wait for a face-off during the Pittsburgh Penguins versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on November 9, 2022 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 09: Penguins left wing Jake Guentzel (59) and center Sidney Crosby (87) wait for a face-off during the Pittsburgh Penguins versus Washington Capitals National Hockey League game on November 9, 2022 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

First-year general manager Kyle Dubas came in with a mission to revive the Pittsburgh Penguins. In 2023, the organization missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011.

Dubas was aggressive in his attempt to build a team that could contend for a fourth Stanley Cup during the Crosby/Malkin/Letang Era. A blockbuster move for Erik Karlsson was supplemented with the additions of Rielly Smith, Ryan Graves, Lars Eller and Noel Acciari.

It isn't working. Roughly two-thirds of the way into the season the Penguins sit seventh out of eight teams in the Metropolitan Divison. They are 11 points out of a wild-card spot, though they have games in hand, and The Athletic's model gives them a 37 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The tide has turned toward the possibility of the Penguins becoming trade-deadline sellers. TSN's Pierre LeBrun stated that Dubas is "listening on pretty much everyone on his roster other than his core guys." Dubas did not exactly shut that down.

The most prominent player the Penguins could move is Jake Guentzel. The 29-year-old left wing is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July. Despite an injury that will keep him out for a month, Guentzel would instantly become the best winger—if not player—available on the trade market. Guentzel is currently fourth on TSN's "trade bait" list, and Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman claimed he believes a trade is "more likely" than not.

In theory, this would be standard procedure for any team that is likely to miss the playoffs for a second successive season. Trade older players at the ends of their deals in return for future assets and then embark on a retool or rebuild.

The quick turnaround move can work. The Detroit Red Wings were in a similar position last season and decided to pull the plug on the season, trading pending UFA Tyler Bertuzzi to the Bruins for their first-round pick and a fourth-round pick. General manager Steve Yzerman then moved that same pick a few months later to the Ottawa Senators as part of a deal to acquire Alex deBrincat, who is both a better player and over three years younger.

It's hard to envision a similar move for Pittsburgh. Since his first full season in 2017-18, Guentzel ranks ninth in the NHL in 5v5 goals and 18th in total goals. He's been a point-per-game player for the Penguins in 58 playoff games.

Is some of his success attributable to the fact that Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang are feeding him scoring chances? Yes, but that works both ways. Guentzel, despite being just 5'11" and 180 pounds, is one of the best players in the league below the faceoff circles. He knows how to get open in dangerous areas, receive a pass on his tape, and put the puck where the goalie can't get it. He can do it off the rush, and he can do it in crowds of bigger players.

The list of NHL wingers who can do those specific things is limited; perhaps only Kyle Connor, David Pastrňák, Mikko Rantanen, Carter Verhaeghe, and Matthew Tkachuk are on Guentzel's level or better.

Can the Penguins flip Guentzel's return around for an upgrade? Or, at least, a similar but younger player? It's possible, but there are no obvious candidates. Defenseman Jakob Chychrun might be available in Ottawa, but the price will be massive. Could a disastrous end to the Leafs' season lead to Mitch Marner hitting the trade block? Will Elias Pettersson become available?

The number of players on that list who could be available for the price of a first-round pick and some add-ons might be zero. Moving Guentzel now in hopes of a summer payoff is a massive risk that is more likely to blow up in Pittsburgh's face than it is to bear fruit.

So what about a lengthier type of regroup? Maybe the Penguins spend a few seasons accumulating assets, banking cap space and planning for one last push during the Crosby era two and three seasons down the line.

That's what the Penguins should have done two years ago when the team had clearly run out of juice. Instead, the organization's management at the time tried a half-baked plan to trade more picks and prospects for players who did not materially change the team's outlook.

In 2024, that concept may be past its expiration date. Next season, Crosby and Letang will open the season at 37 years old. Malkin will be 38. Karlsson will be the "baby" of the core at 34. If these four are all even in the NHL multiple years from now, they're not going to be at the same level. Father Time comes for everyone. As a top-heavy team dependent on them to carry the load, that doesn't offer a promising outlook.

TEMPE, ARIZONA - JANUARY 22: Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins reacts with Evgeni Malkin #71 and Jake Guentzel #59 after scoring a goal against the Arizona Coyotes during the second period of the NHL game at Mullett Arena on January 22, 2024 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
TEMPE, ARIZONA - JANUARY 22: Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins reacts with Evgeni Malkin #71 and Jake Guentzel #59 after scoring a goal against the Arizona Coyotes during the second period of the NHL game at Mullett Arena on January 22, 2024 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The Boston Bruins have been able to deal with departures and declining veterans like Patrice Bergeron, David Krejčí and Zdeno Chara because of new star players ascending. David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are superstars, while other good young players like Brandon Carlo and Jake Debrusk have stepped up.

No similar passing of the torch is coming in Pittsburgh. The Penguins have paid the price for a decade in which the team all but emptied the cupboard of meaningful prospects and draft picks, highlighted by their trading six first-round picks and acquired none. There is not a single player under the age of 27 who can reliably play on a top-three forward line or top-two defensive pairing. The youngest forward who fits that label is Rickard Rakell, who turns 31 in May.

It's not any better below the NHL roster. The Penguins have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. Brayden Yager (19) and Owen Pickering (20) are the only two skaters in the organization with realistic upside as difference makers, years away from making any impact.

Crosby is still playing at an elite level despite his age. That can only be counted on for so long. Once his play drops off, the Penguins will be forced to embark on the ugliest rebuild the NHL has seen during the salary cap era, and acquiring a few assets in return for Jake Guentzel would not change the outlook in the slightest.

The Penguins are right to wave the flag on this season and sell off spare parts, but there is no future to speak of. This organization has a couple more shots at a fourth Stanley Cup during the Crosby era before a long period of pain. The focus needs to be exclusively on that.

Moving Jake Guentzel will make that already arduous task a lot more difficult.

Video: Jaromir Jagr's No. 68 Jersey Retired by Penguins After 2 Stanley Cup Titles

Feb 19, 2024
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 18: Jaromir Jagr watches as his number is lifted to the rafters during his jersey retirement ceremony before the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Los Angeles Kings at PPG PAINTS Arena on February 18, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 18: Jaromir Jagr watches as his number is lifted to the rafters during his jersey retirement ceremony before the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Los Angeles Kings at PPG PAINTS Arena on February 18, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)

Three decades after helping the Pittsburgh Penguins win back-to-back Stanley Cups, Jaromir Jagr had his jersey retired on what the city has officially been declared Jaromir Jagr Day.

Jagr, the second all-time leading scorer in NHL history and a key member of the Penguins' 1991 and 1992 championship teams, was in Pittsburgh to see his No. 68 jersey raised to the rafters prior to the Penguins' Sunday game against the Los Angeles Kings.

He is the third Penguins player to see his jersey retired after Mario Lemieux and Michel Briere.

The Penguins began the ceremony with a video honoring Jagr's accomplishments in Pittsburgh.

Jagr finished his Penguins career with 1,079 points and 439 goals, fourth only to Lemieux and future Hall of Famers Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for the most in team history.

Lemieux was present for the 40-minute ceremony, during which Jagr told fans the 11 years he played in Pittsburgh were "probably the best years of my life."

"Today, all the highlights, videos, goals, even the hair, great memories," Jagr said.

After participating in Penguins practice Saturday, Jagr joined the current team for warmups before Sunday's contest against the Kings.

The rest of the team celebrated the temporary addition to the roster with wigs honoring Jagr's iconic mullet.

After joining the rest of the Penguins for a team photo, Jagr left the ice after a solo lap and a salute that earned him a standing ovation from the crowd at PPG Paints Arena.

Jagr spent 24 years in the NHL, a span over which he played for the New York Rangers, Washington Capitals, Florida Panthers, New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, Boston Bruins, Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames.

But four of his five career 100-point campaigns, and both of his Stanley Cups, came in Pittsburgh.

"You ask anybody in the world, Czech, Europe, and you say 'Jaromir Jagr.' They're going to say Pittsburgh Penguins," Jagr told the crowd at PPG Paints Arena.

Jagr, 52, is still an active hockey player in the Czech Republic, where he plays for the hometown team he owns, the Kladno Knights.

Jaromir Jagr's No. 68 Jersey to Be Retired by Penguins on Feb. 18 vs. Kings

Nov 10, 2023
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 28: Jaromir Jagr speaks at a press conference for TOP LEGENDS at Circa Resort & Casino on June 28, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Denise Truscello/Getty Images for TOP LEGENDS)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 28: Jaromir Jagr speaks at a press conference for TOP LEGENDS at Circa Resort & Casino on June 28, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Denise Truscello/Getty Images for TOP LEGENDS)

Jaromir Jagr's jersey is headed to the rafters at PPG Paints Arena.

The Pittsburgh Penguins announced Friday that Jagr's No. 68 will be retired ahead of a Feb. 18 matchup against the Los Angeles Kings.

The Penguins selected Jagr fifth overall in the 1990 draft out of Kladno, Czech Republic, and he became an instant star for the franchise.

Jagr spent 11 seasons with the Penguins from 1990-2001 and helped Pittsburgh capture back-to-back Stanley Cup titles in 1991 and 1992, tallying 14 goals and 23 assists for 37 points in 45 playoff games in that span.

The 51-year-old appeared in 806 regular season games with the Penguins, notching 439 goals and 640 assists for 1,079 points. He also posted 78 game-winning goals and was a plus-207 in his Pittsburgh career.

Jagr, who served as Pittsburgh's captain from 1998-2001, ranks in the top five in Penguins franchise history in games played, goals, assists, points, plus-minus and game-winning goals.

The only other numbers the Penguins have retired are Mario Lemieux's No. 66 and Michel Briere's No. 21.

Aside from the Penguins, Jagr also spent time with the New York Rangers, Washington Capitals, Florida Panthers, New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, Boston Bruins, Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames. He played 24 seasons between 1990-2018.

In addition to being a 10-time All-Star, Jagr is a five-time Art Ross Award winner as the NHL's scoring leader, three-time Ted Lindsay Award winner as the league's most outstanding player, the 1998-99 Hart Trophy winner as the MVP and the 2014-15 Masterton Trophy winner for his sportsmanship, perseverance and dedication to hockey.

In 1,733 games across 24 seasons, Jagr tallied 766 goals and 1,155 assists for 1,921 points. He also scored 135 game-winning goals and was a plus-322.

Jagr ranks second all-time in points behind Wayne Gretzky and fourth all-time in goals. He also ranks second all-time in multi-point games behind Gretzky.

Penguins Honor Adam Johnson with Video, Pregame Ceremony, Helmet Decals

Oct 30, 2023
PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 30:  Adam Johnson is remembered before the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Anaheim Ducks at PPG PAINTS Arena on October 30, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 30: Adam Johnson is remembered before the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Anaheim Ducks at PPG PAINTS Arena on October 30, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Pittsburgh Penguins honored former NHL player Adam Johnson, who died over the weekend at the age of 29, ahead of Monday's game against the Anaheim Ducks.

Pittsburgh players wore decals on their helmets, and the team also held a pregame ceremony:

Johnson was playing overseas in the EIHL for the Nottingham Panthers and suffered what the team called a "freak accident" during a game against the Sheffield Steelers on Saturday,

"The Nottingham Panthers are truly devastated to announce that Adam Johnson has tragically passed away following a freak accident at the game in Sheffield last night," the statement read. … "Adam, our number 47, was not only an outstanding ice hockey player, but also a great teammate and an incredible person with his whole life ahead of him."

According to ESPN, Johnson's throat was cut by a skate blade as the result of a collision with a Sheffield player.

ESPN also noted that police said "officers remain at the scene carrying out enquiries and our investigation into the circumstances surrounding the incident remain ongoing."

Aimee Lewis and Wayne Sterling of CNN reported the EIHL postponed all Sunday games in the aftermath of the incident.

"The National Hockey League family mourns the passing of former Pittsburgh Penguin Adam Johnson," the NHL said in a statement. "Our prayers and deepest condolences go to his family, friends and teammates."

Johnson appeared in six games for the Penguins during the 2018-19 campaign and seven games in 2019-20.