Saint Mary's Basketball

Recent reports indicate that the NCAA has opened an investigation into potential recruiting violations by the St. Mary’s Gaels.  According to ESPN's Andy Katz:

"What specifically the Gaels are under investigation for is unclear. Multiple attempts to reach Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett and athletic director Mark Orr have gone unanswered.”  

Katz reports that the NCAA has interviewed former Saint Mary's assistant David Patrick who is best known for his recruiting efforts in Australia. He left St. Mary’s in 2010 to work as an NBA scout for the Houston Rockets.  Patrick was dismissed for illegally “working out players during the lockout”. 

Potential penalties could not come at a worse time for the Gaels. 

St. Mary’s is coming off a breakthrough season in the WCC.  They defeated Gonzaga in the WCC Championship game (ending their run of eleven straight WCC Championships) and gathered national recognition with a ranking as high as 13. 

Saint Mary’s is poised to have another solid season. 

They return most major pieces, including point guard Matthew Dellavedova, guards Stephen Holt and Jordan Page, and freshman standout center Brad Waldow.  Incoming freshman Chris Reyes should provide quality minutes at the power forward position. 

Possible sanctions would cripple this team that has the talent to again compete for the WCC Championship.  A penalty-free St. Mary’s team has the upside, talent, and coaching to make a deep run come March. 

Gaels fans will be crossing their fingers that the NCAA’s findings prove to be unsubstantial.

Matthew Dellavedova and the St. Mary Gaels hope to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament, and they stand a good chance of going to the Sweet 16.

Here are five predictions for the St. Mary's star on his NCAA performance.

Dellavedova Will Score 15 Points Against Purdue

Dellavedova averages 15.6 points a game this year, and expect him to reach that mark Friday night against Purdue.

The Gaels are an offensively-potent team, as they score 74.9 points a night, and the Boilermakers struggle on the defensive end.

Dellavedova Has 10 Assists Against Purdue

Dellavedova is one of the better passers in college basketball, as his 6.4 dishes per game provide any indication.

The ball movement Dellavedova helps facilitate makes the Gaels a dangerous bunch. The rank 14th in the nation in assists per game (15.9).

The Boilermakers don't have anyone impressive on the defensive end, so expect Dellavedova to give teammates easy baskets.

Dellavedova Helps St. Mary's Roll Past Boilermakers

Purdue had an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament and is 8-8 in its last 16 contests.

Robbie Hummel is a great player, but other than him, the Boilermakers don't have anyone scary.

Give Dellavedova and the Gaels this one.

Dellavedova Collects 25 points in Round of 32 Game

Dellavedova and the Gaels will have confidence after beating Purdue, and Dellavedova will be feeling the offensive groove.

For the Gaels to advance, they need to get the ball in Dellavedova's hands a lot.

Dellavedova and St. Mary's Lose to Kansas

St. Mary's will most likely face No. 2 Kansas for their next matchup; the Jayhawks are a much tougher draw than the Boilermakers.

Kansas is 4-4 against Top 25 teams with wins over Ohio State, Baylor and Missouri. They have experience and explosive players in Thomas Robinson (17.9 points, 11.8 rebounds) and  Tyshawn Taylor (17.3 points, 4.5 assists).

Dellavedova and his Gaels will put up a good fight, but will ultimately lose.

Don't sleep on Saint Mary's, folks. The seventh-seeded Gaels have what it takes to make a Cinderella run in the 2012 NCAA tournament, thanks in no small part to the particular talents of Matthew Dellavedova.

And if you have no idea who Matthew Dellavedova, allow me to introduce you.

The 6'4", 190-pound guard is just the latest Australian star to suit up for Randy Bennett's squad. Dellavedova is following closely in the footsteps of fellow Aussies Patrick Mills, who twice guided the Gaels to the Big Dance, and Daniel Kickert, the school's all-time leading scorer.

(Note: Mills went on to join the Portland Trail Blazers as a second-round pick out of the 2009 NBA Draft, with whom he was partially responsible for the invention of the now-infamous "three goggles" gesture.)

Like Mills, Dellavedova arrived in Moraga by way of the Australian Institute of Sport, which has groomed hoops stars like former No. 1 overall pick Andrew Bogut (now of the Golden State Warriors) and four-time WNBA MVP Lauren Jackson. Dellavedova also figures to feature with the Australian national team at the 2012 Summer Olympics in London.

As for his body of work at Saint Mary's, Dellavedova, the West Coast Conference Player of the Year, has been a star ever since he set foot on campus, though that hasn't held him back from improving his game whatsoever. In fact, Dellavedova's marks in scoring, assists and field goal percentage have all risen steadily from year to year, to where he now leads the Gaels in points (15.6) and assists (6.4).

He has done some of his best work against the toughest competition, too, with a scoring average of 18.8 points per game in nine career contests against West Coast Conference rival Gonzaga. That includes a 22-point outburst in the Gaels' victory over the Bulldogs in the league championship game this season.

Of course, it hasn't all been sunshine and gumdrops for Dellavedova at SMC. His three-point percentage and free-throw accuracy have both decreased over the years while turnovers have grown to be an even more prevalent part of his game.

Then again, that's to be expected of a player who's so charged with dominating the ball as Dellavedova is.

The Gaels will need just as much out of Dellavedova in the Big Dance, where they'll face 10th-seed Purdue in the opening round before a potential tilt with second-seed Kansas in Omaha on Sunday.

Only time will tell if the glass slipper fits Saint Mary's foot this year, though with a star like Matthew Dellavedova on their side, the Gaels have the goods to shock the college basketball world by surviving and advancing to the second weekend of March Madness, if not beyond.

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Cinderella Madness

WhatIfSports.com and CollegeHoops.net have partnered up to bring you Cinderella Madness 2012.

This college basketball simulation tournament features 16 of the most memorable Cinderella stories from the past eight seasons. We invited teams outside the Big Six conferences, seeded seventh or lower that advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond in their bracket to participate.

Utilizing our award-winning college basketball simulation engine, we "played" each matchup 501 times.

View the 16-team Cinderella Madness bracket.

2009-10 Saint Mary's

Randy Bennett's Gaels boasted a heavy Australian influence, but they didn't have to travel far to recruit their most recognizable star. Big man Omar Samhan led the way to the Sweet 16 for Saint Mary's, whose run truly began at the WCC tournament in Las Vegas.

The Gaels won the automatic bid, which they needed in light of an SOS of 116, by beating rival Gonzaga 81-62. The confidence they gained in that win played a role in victories over Richmond and Villanova.

Matthew Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell ran the show on the perimeter while Ben Allen proved to be a capable sidekick alongside Samhan.

Unfortunately for Saint Mary's, they ran into the worst possible matchup in the Sweet 16, and their season ended at the hands of the Baylor Bears.

2007-08 Western Kentucky

The Hilltoppers may have been a No. 12 seed in the Big Dance, but there's no mistaking the fact that they had players that could give teams fits. Courtney Lee averaged 20.4 points per game for the Hilltoppers, who entered the NCAA tournament having won six straight and 17 of their last 18 games.

It took a Ty Rogers three as time expired to beat Drake in the first round, and WKU followed that up with a win over San Diego to make its first trip to the Sweet 16 since 1993. In addition to Lee and Rogers, there was Tyrone Brazelton, a good point guard who also averaged more than 14 points per game. WKU's run was ended by top-seeded UCLA in Phoenix.

-Raphielle Johnson, CollegeHoops.net

Game recap

In three 2010 NCAA tournament contests, the 6'11", 265-pound Samhan averaged 25.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Fittingly, he helped Saint Mary's narrowly escape Western Kentucky with, you guessed it, 25 points and nine boards.

The Hilltoppers countered with a two-headed offensive attack featuring Lee and Brazelton. The duo combined to average 47.0 points per game during their 2008 Sweet 16 run. In the first half against the Gaels, their 18 collective points helped the Hilltoppers to a 36-30 advantage at intermission.

Western Kentucky maintained their lead until a jump shot by Ben Allen put Saint Mary's ahead 62-61 with less than six minutes remaining in the game. The margin grew to 74-71 on a pair of Beau Levesque free throws with 20 seconds left. Though the Hilltoppers managed to throw up three attempts to tie the game, none connected.

Saint Mary's lost the rebounding battle 32-27, but connected on 19 of 21 free throws and turned the ball over four fewer times. Lee and Brazelton each scored 21 points for Western Kentucky.

Player of the game: Omar Samhan (25 PTS, 9 REB)

Winning Percentage of 501 Simulations: '10 Saint Mary's 53.1 % - '08 Western Kentucky 46.9%

The streak is over.

With their 67-60 win over the University of San Francisco, the St. Mary’s Gaels won the West Coast Conference regular season title outright.  It was the first time since the 1999-2000 season that a team other than Gonzaga won the title outright (last year St. Mary’s and Gonzaga shared the title, but St. Mary’s lost the WCC tournament final to Gonzaga and was relegated to the NIT).

In 2000, it was Pepperdine. Since then, St. Mary’s (25-5, 14-2), along with every other team in the WCC, has been left playing second fiddle to the 'Zags.

For the Gaels, it was their first outright title since 1989. Senior Clint Steindl led the scoring for St. Mary’s with 16 points. Fellow senior Rob Jones also put up 14 points and 14 rebounds. Matthew Dellavedova, who has been battling an ankle injury, and is a Bob Cousy candidate, put up 14 points to got along with six assists.

At one point, the Gaels were 11-0 in conference, and there was chatter of them running the table in the WCC. But then they lost three of four games (Gonzaga, Loyola Marymount and Murray State), and all of a sudden their grasp on the WCC title was in doubt.

St. Mary’s got help when San Francisco beat Gonzaga. The Gaels then managed to take care of their own business, beating Portland before beating San Francisco.

Now the Gaels seem to be picking up steam again just at the right time as they head into the WCC tournament this weekend. Regardless of what happens in Vegas, though, they are all but a lock to be included in the NCAA Tournament.

Saturday’s matchup between the host No. 14 Murray State Racers (25-1) and No. 16 Saint Mary’s Gaels (23-4) is easily the best-ever matchup in the decade-long history of ESPN’s BracketBusters games. Those are staged games by the network(s) between mid-majors with high RPI ratings to help boost teams’ RPI come Selection Sunday for a potential at-large NCAA Tournament bid.

How big is it Saturday? Even Dick Vitale will be on hand for the ESPN telecast, his first visit to Murray State.

(As part of the BracketBusters deal, Murray State will make a return trip to St. Mary's sometime over the next two seasons.)

Saint Mary’s at Murray State Betting Story lines

Would it be possible for a team that was once ranked in the Top 10 and was the country’s final unbeaten club to not get an at-large NCAA Tournament bid? Some experts believe it is for Murray State should the Racers lose one more regular-season game and then not win the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament (they already won the regular-season title for the third year in a row).

That’s because Murray State’s strength of schedule is in the 200s, three of its wins have come against non-Division I teams, and a large chunk of the rest have come against teams in the 200s or worse in RPI.

Still, it’s hard to imagine that even a mini-losing streak would cause Murray State to be left out thanks to solid non-conference wins over Harvard (a total blowout), Southern Miss, Dayton and Memphis.

Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, appeared a lock to end Gonzaga’s reign as the West Coast Conference regular-season champion (11 years in a row, although SMC tied last year) before a stunning home blowout loss Wednesday night to Loyola Marymount, 75-60. That was the Gaels’ final home game of the season and their first home loss. They still control their own destiny in the WCC.

And Wednesday’s defeat was exceptionally painful for Saint Mary’s. Gaels point guard Matthew Dellavedova, the heart and soul of the club and likely the WCC Player of the Year, twisted his right ankle in the game and is questionable for this one. The Aussie is one of 11 national finalists for the Bob Cousy Point Guard of the Year Award and leads Saint Mary's with averages of 15.7 points and 6.4 assists in 37 minutes per game.

Frankly, there is no reason for Saint Mary’s to play Dellavedova in this non-conference game with the WCC title as the target and the Gaels assured of an NCAA spot. In addition, shooting guard Stephen Holt also hurt his ankle in Wednesday’s game and didn’t make the trip to Kentucky. He's the team’s best perimeter defender and is averaging 10.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Holt probably is out weeks.

The only healthy guards listed on the Gaels' roster are Jorden Page, who averages 8.3 points a game, and redshirt freshman Zach Sanchez, who has played seven minutes all season. This should be a major problem as Murray State is a guard-oriented team, led by Ohio Valley Player of the Year candidate Isaiah Canaan (19.2 points per game, second in OVC, and also a Cousy finalist).

Saint Mary’s and Murray State have met twice, with the Gaels winning both, but not since 2006. They do have one common opponent: San Francisco. Back on Nov. 25 in Alaska, Murray State beat the Dons, 70-67, on the way to winning the Great Alaska Shootout. SMU beat WCC foe San Francisco, 87-72, in Moraga, Calif., on Jan. 9.

Saint Mary’s at Murray State Betting Odds and Trends

I had decided ahead of time to preview this game because, well, it’s the best BracketBusters matchup we have seen and only one of two Top-25 matchups on a fairly weak Saturday (Ohio State-Michigan being the other). But with Dellavedova’s status up in the air, the line no doubt will be in flux. It opened as SMU minus-2.5 with no total but expect some movement on the side.

SMU is 10-11 ATS overall and 4-4 on the road. MSU is 10-9-2 ATS overall and 3-6-1 at home. ‘Over/under’ records: SMU 11-10, MSU 11-10.  Saint Mary’s is 0-4 ATS in its past four but 4-1 ATS in past five non-conference games. Murray State is 4-0-1 ATS in past five non-conference games but 1-6 ATS in past seven at home.

College Basketball Picks: Saint Mary’s at Murray State Betting Predictions

This all hinges on Dellavedova. I don’t think he plays as there is really no point, and the Gaels, who don’t exactly have a large athletic budget, had to travel across country not exactly in style.

In fact, the morning after their LMU loss, the Gaels boarded a flight bound for Kansas City, to make a connection to Nashville, where they practiced and spent the night before making a two-plus hour drive Friday to Murray, Ky. They'll bus back to Nashville after the game Saturday night, then work their way back to California.

That has to take a lot out of the team. Welcome to a mid-major program.

Still, if Dellavedova plays, I like the deeper, bigger Gaels to cover. But if not, Murray State is the pick here. It’s arguably the biggest game in school history, at least at home. And a win gets the Racers off any perceived “bubble.”

Doc Moseman is the owner of Doc’s Sports college basketball picks website.

Saint Mary’s lost their first home game of the season this past Wednesday against Loyola Marymount University. To make matters worse, two of their three starting guards were injured at a position that they were already thin at after Paul McCoy went down before the season started.

Matthew Dellavedova has the less serious injury of the two, but it is looking like he will miss this Saturday’s Bracket Buster game against Murray State.  Stephen Holt, on the other hand, has a torn MCL. It will not require surgery, but he could miss the rest of the season. This is a huge blow to the Gaels, as Holt leads the West Coast Conference in steals and is the best defensive player on the team.

The two injuries might leave St. Mary’s with only two guards available this weekend at Murray State: Jorden Page and redshirt freshman Zach Sanchez. Sanchez has only played in four games this season—all non-conference.

It will be very interesting to see how coach Randy Bennett handles the starting lineup and rotation against Murray State. Expect to see senior Clint Steindl draw the tough assignment of guarding Isaiah Canaan with Holt out.

It’s tough to see Zach Sanchez getting the start, but Randy Bennett doesn’t have many other choices. Even if he doesn’t get the start, he will most likely get a lot of minutes.

Forwards Mitchell Young and Beau Levesque will need to step up. Bennett could also look to seldom-used players Tim Williams, Eividas Petrulis, and Kyle Rowley. Beau Levesque and Petrulis are probably the only two capable of playing the small forward position. However, Rob Jones could take that spot, which would allow Rowley or Williams to move to the 4 or 5 position.   

The students stormed the court. But it certainly didn’t feel like an upset.

The Saint Mary’s Gaels dismantled West Coast Conference powerhouse No. 21 Gonzaga 83-62 on Thursday night in front of a national audience, standing-room-only crowd, and a boisterous student section.

What may be most impressive is they did it with one of their best players, Rob Jones, in constant foul trouble and managing only two points (which came as the game was winding down) while shooting 1-for-6 from the field and going 0-for-3 from 3-point land. However, as good players do, Jones found other ways to contribute, dishing out a team-high eight assists (a career high) and grabbing a team-high 11 rebounds.

Matthew Dellavedova led the charge with 26 points, while freshman Brad Waldow had the first double-double of his young career with 17 points and 10 rebounds.

The Gaels also did an excellent job holding traditional Gael-killer Robert Sacre to only four points on 1-for-7 shooting. Elias Harris led the Zags with 17 points and 11 rebounds.

It was the biggest margin of victory for the Gaels over the Bulldogs since 1989, and it begs the question: Have the Gaels finally arrived? Many St. Mary’s fans and alums would argue they arrived in 2010, beating Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament championship game, and then Richmond and Villanova to move onto the sweet 16. However, beating up on the team you’ve always been viewed as playing second fiddle to cannot be understated.

The Zags have basically been the team to beat in the WCC the last decade, but this year the conference looks more like a three-headed monster composed of BYU, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. With the 21-point demolition of the Zags, St. Mary’s could well be on its way to being at the top of that list.

St. Mary’s needs to be short in their celebration though, as it is still an uphill battle with the Gaels having road games at BYU and Gonzaga still left on the schedule.