The Texas Longhorns enter the tournament with one of the best teams they've had in the Rick Barnes era, and considering where they'll be playing, the Horns probably have the second-best team in terms of the path they will take on the road to the Final Four.
Texas, with the loss to Kansas last Sunday in the Big 12 Championship Game (for the thirrd consecutive year), was named a #2 seed in the South Region, which actually was a better announcement than being a #1 seed in the Midwest. Why? Texas plays the first 2 rounds in Little Rock, Arkansas (a 7-8 hour drive, not bad for the NCAAs), then plays the regionals (assuming they are not upset on Friday or Sunday) in Houston, as opposed to Ford Field in Detroit (about 1,400 miles away as opposed to 150). Playing Memphis as the estimated Elite Eight teams wouldn't be much different than playing Georgetown, who probably would have more home-court advantage in Detroit than even Kansas, let alone Texas.
For the first round, Texas is playing Austin Peay, the OVC champions. They have been hot as of late, winning 11 of their final 12 games, though their biggest win was against Georgia Southern during the run. They did play both Vanderbilt and Memphis in the regular season, losing to Vandy by 14 and the Tigers by 22. Texas will probably somewhere within that realm, and if they lose, would be among the five biggest upsets in NCAA tournament history (especially since they'd be the fifth 2-seed to lose in the first round). I doubt that will happen and Texas should cruise.
The Governors (yes, that is the Peay's mascot) are a very balanced team, with five players scoring in double figures, all between 10.9 and 14.6 points a game. They are a running team as well, scoring 74.6 a game and forcing almost ten steals per contest. However, they only play one player above 6-6, Tomas Janauskas, and the 6-8 center only plays 3 minutes a contest. Texas potential size issues when playing 3 guards under 6-2 as they typcially do will not be a factor in this game.
The next game will be against either the Miami Hurricanes or Saint Mary's from the West Coast Conference. Matching up against St. Mary's will be a bit surprising, as Texas already played the Gaels at home early January in what Horns coach Rick Barnes cited as one of the best performances by his team this season in an 81-62 blowout. The second matchup would probably be closer, as the Arkansas crowd will likely feature enough Razorback backers that remember the SWC days with the Horns enough to back the 10-seed underdogs should they matchup with Texas.
I still think the Longhorns would win, relatively comfortable, probably around ten or so. Many analysts would hype the point guard matchup between First-team All-American D.J. Augustin and talented freshman Patrick Mills, though in the first meeting, Texas completely shut down Mills to the tune of 12 points, one assist, and five turnovers, while Augustin finished with 30 points and four assists.
However, I think the matchup would be a lot more interesting if the Hurricanes faced off against Texas in the second round. The matchup would be the team's first since 1989, where Texas won 123-104 in Austin. While the score will undoubtedly not be that expansive, the game could be closer than people think for one major wild card: Frank Haith. Haith is the head coach of Miami, but what a lot of casual observers don't know is that Haith was the Associate Head Coach for Rick Barnes during the team's Final Four run in 2003, before heading off to take the head job in Miami, where he got the program back to the NCAAs after a six-year hiatus.
The 'Canes also score about 75 a game and are typically a quick shooting team, though they only shot 44% from the field this year. Miami is a much deeper team than any of Texas' other potential first weekend opponents, playing nine guys at least 14 minutes a game. Jack McClinton is the go-to guy for the Hurricanes, scoring 17 a game and is a similar quality 3-point shooter as AJ Abrams, making nearly 3 threes a game and shooting 43% from behind-the-arc. However, Miami's inconsistent play and streaky shooting mean a likely nod in the Horns favor, though the wild card of Haith's knowledge of Barnes and the Texas system (which is still quite a bit different from four years ago) might give Miami a puncher's chance.
If Texas is going to make a deep run in this tournament, there will need to be some unsung heroes that can make an impact to boost Texas when the typical stars of Augustin, AJ Abrams, and Damion James can not get it done on their own. In the Final Four run of 2003 and the Elite Eight run of 2006, several less heralded players were deeply important to helping Texas continue its season:
2003: 1st R vs UNC-Asheville: Brian Boddicker 14 pts, 12 rebs off bench
2nd R vs Purdue: Deginald Erskin scores 11 points in 15 minutes
Sweet 16 vs UConn: James Thomas goes up against future partial POY Emeka Okafor and has 13 pts and 15 rebounds, Texas wins by 4.
Elite 8 vs Michigan St: Sydmill Harris and Boddicker combine for 27 off the bench in a nine-point win.
2006: 2nd R vs NC State: freshman backup PG AJ Abrams scores 16 points and has 5 assists in 75-54 win.
Sweet 16 vs W Virginia: Mike Williams has 9 points and 7 rebounds off the bench, and Kenton Paulino his a GW 3 as time experiences to win 74-71.
Elite 8 vs LSU: Senior Brad Buckman, delegated to the fourth-option with stars PJ Tucker, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Daniel Gibson taking a lot of shots, scores 13 points and grabs 14 rebounds, including a hustle play that kept a play alive that allowed Gibson to hit an OT-forcing 3.
There's a few role players that could fit, whether Justin Mason and Connor Atchley, both starters but not necessarily offensive weapons (though Atchley has been changing that idea slowly during the season). The 4-post crew coming off the bench, featuring freshmen Gary Johnson, Alexis Wangmene, Clint Chapman, and sophomore Dexter Pittman all may have a game where their low-post scoring is key to the game.
Texas' expectations, which coming into the season would have been, at best, a Sweet 16 appearance is now nothing less than a Final Four run. I would believe their season is a success if they make it to the Elite Eight and play down to the wire, especially if the opponent is Memphis, but also in general. The team could very easily make some noise over the next three weeks.