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Lessons Learned from St. Louis Rams, Snead and Fisher's 2012 Draft Strategy

Jun 19, 2012

The St. Louis Rams' draft season was so action-packed that they made the biggest trade of the entire draft more than a month before it happened. New general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher were movers and shakers throughout the first two rounds. They did more to immediately shape a roster to their sensibilities (and lay the groundwork for future growth via the draft) than any new regime in recent memory.

What did we learn about their philosophy?

The Rams are always open to talking trade

In addition to pulling off the trade down from No. 2 to No. 6 in March that landed two future first-round picks and a 2012 second-round pick, the Rams also traded down again from No. 6 once the pick was on the clock and again when their newly acquired and third second-round pick was on the clock.

The results were mixed, as the Rams got a player who was surely a top target at 14 (the pick they traded down to) in defensive tackle Michael Brockers, but they missed out on two of their top outside linebacker prospects when both Mychal Kendricks and Bobby Wagner went between the 45th pick and the 50th pick.

With the Rams having extra first-round picks the next two years, expect more draft day moves from Fisher and Snead.

Fisher and Snead are not risk-averse

With the first pick of the second round, they took Brian Quick, a small-school wide receiver who might be a bit raw over many receivers that were rated higher by the draft community consensus. Quick's size-athleticism combination at receiver was probably in the top three in the draft, along with Stephen Hill and Michael Floyd.

While at Tennessee, Jeff Fisher teams were known for taking the athlete first and worrying about what football player they would become second, and Quick fits that modus operandi.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsHc2hr6nPo

The second pick of the second round was Janoris Jenkins, who many analysts had tabbed as the biggest character risk in the entire draft. Some suggested that teams should remove him from their boards completely, even though he more than held his own against the likes of AJ Green and Julio Jones before he got booted from Florida's football team.

The Rams believe small-school players can make it on the big stage

Perhaps Janoris Jenkins shouldn't count since he was originally at Florida, one of the biggest programs in the country, but even if you exclude him, two of the Rams' first five picks came from small schools. Trumaine Johnson, a defensive back from Montana, was the first of the third round, joining Jenkins and Quick as small-schoolers with big expectations. 

The Rams weren't done taking small-school players after the first two days of the draft. They took a kicker (Greg Zuerlien) from Missouri Western and a running back from Abilene Christian (Daryl Richardson, who is Cincinnati Bengal Bernard Scott's younger brother) in the sixth and seventh round, respectively.

A head coach's ranking on a list of greats in NFL history can be determined many different ways. Playoff appearances, Super Bowl wins, even whether the players on his team had respect for the coach all can play a factor...

All-Time AFC South Team: You Picked the Winners

Jun 4, 2012

For the past few weeks, I've been presenting nominations for the All-Time AFC South Team.

Now, after all the votes have been counted, we finally have the squad filled out. In the final tally, the Titans and Colts tied with five members each. The Texans had one, and the Jaguars didn't win any votes.

Quarterback: 2004 Peyton Manning (84.3%)

The only surprise is that this wasn't unanimous. The guy who voted for David Garrard should be ashamed of himself.

Running Back: 2009 Chris Johnson (51.8%)

It's tough to argue with 2000 yards. Still, this was one of the closer votes. Arian Foster also got a lot of love from the voters. Ultimately, the fans made the right call.

Wide Receiver: Marvin Harrison 2002 (72.0%)

This vote was closer than it should have been. This was one of the top-five greatest receiving seasons in history.

Tight End: 2009 Dallas Clark (88.0%)

Clark's overall career isn't nearly as good as people assume, but 2009 was every bit the dominant season the vote indicated. This was the widest margin of victory on the board.

Offensive Line: 2008 Titans (40.2%)

This was the closest vote, and the first of four 2008 Titans to win. I wonder if the 2005 Colts didn't have the better line, but they played so poorly in the playoffs that I have no problem giving this to the '08 Titans. Jake Scott played on both lines.

Defensive Tackle: 2008 Albert Haynesworth (78.1%)

This was the biggest gap of any of the defensive player awards. I think John Henderson was a little underrated, but ultimately, this was a slam-dunk.

Defensive End: 2002 Dwight Freeney (65.6%)

Whether or not this is the single best year from Freeney or an end from the South, there's no question that he has been the most dominant defensive player from the South over the past decade.

Linebacker: 2003 Keith Bulluck (69.0%)

The All-Pro handily won this vote, and I'm not going to argue with it. He was a standout for many years, and highlighting his best season seems like a nice way to recognize that.

Cornerback: 2011 Johnathan Joseph (64.7%)

This feels like a bit of a homer pick from the Texans fans. I think I would have gone with Finnegan myself. Joseph's impact was undeniable, however.

Safety: 2007 Bob Sanders (75.0%)

This was a no-brainer. Sanders was the Defensive Player of the Year, and the readers agreed he was the right choice.

Head Coach: 2008 Jeff Fisher (54.6%)

Fisher handily beat Tony Dungy from the same year. Part of me wonders if Fisher would have beaten 2006 Tony Dungy, but I stand by my choice.

Fisher is a good pick, even over Dungy who he managed to out-maneuver on a few occasions. I would still have taken Dungy, but I'm not going to dispute this call.

St. Louis Rams: So What Does Bradford's New Contract Mean?

Jun 1, 2012

Sam Bradford recently reworked his rookie contract, the largest ever signed by an NFL rookie. This was a very shrewd move by Rams management, as it opens up several possibilities.

As reported by Howard Balzer, Bradford's deal was restructured to remove $6 million of the guaranteed money Bradford was owed, including a total of $6.41 million from the last two years of his deal. Basically, the Rams have paid Bradford his guaranteed money now, so that the final years on the contract are non-guaranteed. So if the Rams did cut ties with Bradford after 2013, the cap hit would be $7.19 million. That cap hit could be divided over two years.

However, Jeff Fisher has made it clear that if it's up to him, Bradford isn't going anywhere.

Fisher recently told Jim Rome, "The reason I came here is because of Sam. We've got a franchise quarterback here."

So what the Rams are hoping happens is Bradford plays well and continues to improve. That would allow for a new contract and extension entering the 2014 season that would convert those base salaries into a signing bonus and thus reduce the cap hits.

This is the way business is done in the NFL. The Rams are simply trying to clean up their books. By giving Bradford the $6 million in guaranteed money now, they are simply clearing more cap room for the future. As it stands now, Bradford's contract amounts to a cap hit of $15.595 million this year, $12.595 million in 2013, $17.610 million in 2014 and $16.58 million in 2015.

The Rams are simply paying Bradford now, so they can move that money around in the future to pay other players, while at the same time extending Bradford's contract. It's good business. Bradford isn't going anywhere, and the Rams are just making sure they have enough money left over to get him some help.

All-Time AFC South Team: The Best Coaching Performance

Jun 1, 2012

The AFC South has been around for 10 often-glorious years, and it's time to give the unappreciated division some love.

For the next few weeks, I'll be letting you vote on the all-time AFC South team. We'll be picking players and a coach based on their best single season from 2002 to 2011.

We started with the quarterbacks, moved on to the running backs, the wide receivers, tight ends, the offensive line, defensive tackles, defensive ends, linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties.

Today we look at the best head coaches.

Vote for your choice. Voting on all spots will last into next week when I'll announce the team.

The nominees are:

Jack Del Rio, 2007

Del Rio made a tough call in 2007 by replacing Byron Leftwich with David Garrard in training camp. While it can be argued that Del Rio never should have backed Leftwich the offseason before, we'll be positive and count it in his favor. Garrard followed with an incredible season, and the Jaguars won 11 games and upset the Steelers in the playoffs.

Jeff Fisher, 2008

No one expected the 2008 Titans to win the AFC South, but Fisher pulled it off, thanks in part to a gutsy move to bench Vince Young in favor of Kerry Collins. The fact that Fisher managed to take teams quarterbacked by Young and Collins to the playoffs at all is amazing. The Titans finished with the best record and had the best point differential in football.

Tony Dungy, 2008

Dungy is an oft-celebrated coach for great reason, but his finest coaching job by far was 2008. The Colts were decimated by injuries and at one point saw their record dip to 3-4. Indianapolis then won the final nine games of the season, six of them by one score or less.

Dungy was masterful all season before seeing his team lose a tough game in overtime on the road in the playoffs. His cover-2 defense was never on better display as the Colts held opponents to an NFL-record six touchdown passes all season.

Gary Kubiak, 2011

The Texans finally broke through in 2011, and Gary Kubiak delivered the city of Houston its first division crown. Despite injuries to Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, Kubiak kept the Texans afloat.

The team cruised to its first playoff appearance and then on to the second round. At one point, the Texans looked to be the most dominant team in the AFC before the injuries lead to bad losses down the stretch.

2012 St. Louis Rams Season Outlook

May 29, 2012

Quick Review of 2011

Offense—No. 23 rushing, No. 30 passing, No. 31 total.

Defense—No. 31 rushing, No. 7 passing, No. 22 total.

After coming close to a division title in 2010, the Rams had high hopes of being a playoff contender in 2011. Instead they won only two games—a shockingly dominant upset of New Orleans, and a one-point win at Cleveland.

Quarterback Sam Bradford was hit with the "sophomore" slump. Bradford missed six games and the Rams were only 1-9 in the games he played. He threw as many interceptions—six—as touchdown passes, and had no games with more than one touchdown pass.

The Rams were also last in points scored with 193, and their point differential was a league low of -214.

Even though the pass defense put up respectable numbers, it was due to a poor run defense and the fact that since the Rams were usually behind, teams didn't need to pass as much against them.

Overall, it was another poor showing for a team that is a miserable 15-65 over the past five seasons. It was enough to put Steve Spagnuolo out as head coach at season's end.

New Additions

LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar, CB Cortland Finnegan, DE William Hayes, DE Kendall Langford, DT Trevor Laws, TE Matthew Mulligan, OT Quinn Ojinnaka, WR Steve Smith, G Robert Turner, C Scott Wells.

Draft Choices

DT Michael Brockers, WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, RB Isaiah Pead, CB Trumaine Johnson, WR Chris Givens, G Rokevious Watkins, K Greg Zuerlein, LB Aaron Brown, RB Daryl Richardson.

Undrafted Free Agents

FB Todd Anderson, LB Sammy Brown, CB Jeremy Caldwell, LB Derrick Choice, DT Matt Conrath, S Matt Daniels, QB Austin Davis, TE Cory Harkey, G Michael Hay, C T. Bob Hebert, P John Hekker, LB Alex Hoffman-Ellis, DE Jamaar Jarrett, WR Nicholas Johnson, LB Noah Keller, OT Joe Long, S Rodney McLeod, RB Calvin Middleton, TE DeAngelo Peterson, S Quinton Pointer, RB Nick Schwieger, DE Scott Smith, LB Travis Tripuka.

Subtractions

DE C.J. Ah You, TE Billy Bajema, DT Justin Bannan, CB Ron Bartell, C Jason Brown, S James Butler, LB Chris Chamberlain, WR Mark Clayton, QB A.J. Feeley, DT Gary Gibson, OT Adam Goldberg, CB Al Harris, CB Roderick Hood, P Donnie Jones, LB Bryan Kehl, CB Justin King, LB Ben Leber, OT Matt LeVoir, WR Brandon Lloyd, RB Jerious Norwood, LB Brady Poppinga, DT Fred Robbins, TE Stephen Spach, RB Cadillac Williams, G Tony Wragge.

Outlook For 2012

Following the release of Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams hired long-time former Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher. Fisher brings immediate credibility to a team that has been among the worst in the NFL over the past five seasons. Fisher has brought in cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who will have an immediate impact on the defense.

The Rams were big traders in the offseason. They traded their No. 2 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft to Washington for a bundle of picks that the Rams will use to build for the future. Even though they traded further down, they were able to select LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers with the 14th pick.

The passing game was perhaps the Rams biggest problem in 2011. Bradford didn't look as good as he did in his rookie year. In his defense, he has never had a true No. 1 receiver to work with. With Brandon Lloyd leaving in free agency, the Rams took two wide receivers in the draft—Brian Quick and Chris Givens.

The Rams also took a chance on troubled cornerback Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins has had his off-the-field problems, but if Jeff Fisher can straighten him out, he could become a fixture for the Rams for several years.

The Rams will rely on several new players who they hope will gel together quickly. In the end though, Sam Bradford will need to return to his form of 2010 for the Rams to see much improvement.

Schedule

Sep.  9 at Detroit

Sep. 16    Washington

Sep. 23 at Chicago

Sep. 30    Seattle

Oct.   4    Arizona

Oct. 14 at Miami

Oct. 21    Green Bay

Oct. 28    New England (London)

Nov. 11 at San Francisco

Nov. 18    New York Jets

Nov. 25 at Arizona

Dec.  2    San Francisco

Dec.  9 at Buffalo

Dec. 16    Minnesota

Dec. 23 at Tampa Bay

Dec. 30 at Seattle

The Rams will "host" the game in London this year. It will come during a stretch of three Super Bowl contenders in consecutive weeks.

Their only prime-time appearance will be a Thursday Night game on NFL Network against the Cardinals.

Prediction

Two years ago, the Rams went from 1-15 to 7-9 with a rookie quarterback. That year they almost won the division.

The NFC West will not be as easy to win this year as it was that year.

The start of the season will be key. The Rams could potentially be 4-2 in the first six weeks. If Sam Bradford and his receivers have a poor start, they could potentially be 1-5.

If that happens, the season could spiral out of control fast like it did last year.

They have a rocky road from October 21 until December 9. If they win three of those games it would be a success.

In their wildest dreams they could win 10. However, in reality, they may still be a year away and four wins or less is more likely.

St. Louis Rams: Fisher Challenges Rams' D to Break All-Time Sack Record

May 19, 2012

Jeff Fisher has challenged the St. Louis Rams to break the NFL's all-time sack record. The current record is 72, set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. The Rams recorded 39 sacks in 2011, led by Chris Long, who registered 13 sacks.

Long is in just entering the prime years of his career, and he is a force from his left defensive end position. Robert Quinn, who plays the right defensive end spot, had five sacks last season as a rookie. Quinn looks like he is going to be an absolute stud on the right side, giving the Rams perhaps the best young pass rushing duo in the NFL.

Throw in defensive tackles Kendal Langford, brought in via free agency, and Michael Brockers, the No. 14 pick in the 2012 NFL draft, and the Rams' front four is perhaps the most talented young foursome in the NFL.

I also think Eugene Sims, who has seen quite a bit of playing time during his first two seasons, will be a key player in that rotation of defensive ends. Sims played in all 16 games last season, but didn't register a sack. I think his role on the team will increase now that James Hall and his six sacks are no longer on the roster.

If the Rams are going to break the sack record, that means they'll need to get some sacks from their linebackers. James Laurinaitis is one of the best young middle linebackers in the NFL. Now that he has two competent, space-eating defensive tackles in front of him, that is going to help take Laurinaitis to the next level, and hopefully increase on the three sacks he had a year ago.

However, Laurinaitis' primary job is to stop the run. The Rams will need those outside linebackers to get to the QB. That is where free-agent pickups Jo-Lonn Dunbar and Mario Haggan will chip in. Dunbar only registered one sack a year ago with the Saints, and as the weakside linebacker, the Rams will need more production from him. Haggan, listed at 6'3", 274 pounds, had five sacks as the starting strongside linebacker for Denver in 2010.

The Rams have a couple of rookie linebackers that also might add to that sack total. Aaron Brown (seventh-round draft pick) had 4.5 sacks last season at the University of Hawaii, and with his 4.5 speed coming off the edge, Brown looks like a player that might be able to get to the QB.

Sammy Brown (undrafted free agent) had 21 sacks and 50 tackles for loss during his two seasons at the University of Houston. Brown could definitely be a pass rushing linebacker, if he ever learns to give a consistent effort.

The Rams should get a handful of sacks from their secondary as well. Darian Stewart racked up three sacks from his safety position last year. Quintin Mickell chipped in with one. Rather than actually adding to the sack total directly, I think the Rams' secondary will lock down receivers and give that pass rush one more second to get to the QB.

I've said it over and over, and I'll say it again: the Rams have one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

That secondary is going to allow the Rams to do whatever it wants to do on third down. Want to just rush four and rely on Long and Quinn to get to the QB? The Rams can do that. Or maybe you want to do something exotic like send a safety, or maybe blitz Sammy Brown? The Rams' corners are good enough to cover their man, allowing the Rams to do that.

Basically, the opposing QB won't know what's coming.

It has to be awesome to hear your head coach say, "Let's go break the sack record." These Rams' defenders are young and talented. When you hear the boss talk like that, it gives these Rams something they've been lacking, confidence.

Do I think the Rams will break the sack record? No, but I think they could be near the top of the NFL in sacks for 2012. I think the Rams will be a top-five to top-10 defense, and that is a big reason why I'm predicting the Rams to make the playoffs in 2012.

My unofficial guess for the Rams 2012 sack total: 52.

As always, thanks for reading.

Assessing the St. Louis Rams' Chances of a Quick Turnaround Under Jeff Fisher

May 16, 2012

Jeff Fisher faces arguably the most difficult job in the NFL heading into the 2012 season. Fisher has to fix a culture of losing that has plagued the St. Louis Rams and led to just 15 wins in five seasons.

With this in mind, the Rams have naturally been very active this offseason in the hopes of quickly reversing their fortunes. The early phase of Fisher's plan has been characterized by the attention paid to the trenches.

Free-agency yielded former Green Bay Packers' Super Bowl winning center Scott Wells. Having a savvy pivot man like Wells direct a line blighted by inexperience and numerous injury-enforced changes is a wise move.

The addition of Steve Smith may not give Sam Bradford the high-profile, big-play target many believe he needs. Yet Smith is at least a reliable receiver who can be trusted to hold onto the ball.

Failing to add true explosion to the supporting cast around Bradford may be the main criticism that could be leveled against Fisher and general manager Les Snead. However, knowing Fisher's history it's difficult to imagine how anyone could expect him to run anything other than a safe, run-first offense.

On defense, Fisher opted for ex-Miami Dolphins rotation player Kendall Langford. Though his background is in the 3-4, Langford is a powerful 2-gapper who can occupy blockers and help create one-on-one matchups for rush ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn.

Securing the services of Cortland Finnegan was worth the investment for a team with a major weakness at cornerback. Finnegan's aggression will get him into trouble, but he can lock up receivers in man and press coverage and will give Fisher more freedom to blitz.

Ultimately, Fisher's first offseason, maybe even the next two, will be defined by the draft trades with the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys. The Rams were smart to hold an auction for the No. 2 pick, and certainly got what they wanted from the Redskins in the form of two first-round picks. 

The trade with the Cowboys was less obvious, and while the Rams could have used Morris Claiborne, they clearly identified their cover men in later rounds. The selections of Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson raised a lot of eyebrows, due to the character concerns surrounding the pair.

However, not enough people have considered what the Rams will get if both players come good. Fisher is gambling on their natural man coverage skills which are an essential requirement for a coach fond of a 46-style defense.

Opting for defensive tackle Michael Brockers in the first round addressed a more pressing need than corner, or even wide receiver. With Long and Quinn on the outside and the prospect of dealing with Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch twice a season, St. Louis has to be stout in the middle.

In many ways, it appears as though the Rams are trying to build a bully. While that strategy often makes this author skeptical, the Rams have to find a way to compete with the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks.

They are both particularly physical on either side of the ball. This might explain why the Rams have gone for solid players rather than loading up on the kind of big play potential offered by the Arizona Cardinals.

Fisher's fondness for the run means the team will rightly emphasize its best player, Steven Jackson. The defense has received a crucial influx of youth and aggression in the right areas.

Fisher and Snead will be judged on how they have handled this draft and what they do with the next two, especially given the dubious success rate the Rams have had with early picks. However, the early signs are good.

Through their trades, Fisher and Snead have at least ensured that a framework for staying competitive is in place.

St. Louis Rams: Janoris Jenkins Gets Big Props from Jeff Fisher

May 15, 2012

Janoris Jenkins was probably the most controversial player in the 2012 NFL draft. Depending on whom you talked to, Jenkins was either a can't-miss prospect, or a bust waiting to happen.

First-round talent. Seventh-round off-the-field problems.

That is Janoris Jenkins in a nutshell.

The St. Louis Rams rolled the dice, selecting Jenkins in the second round (No. 39 overall). Rams head coach Jeff Fisher said the team did their due diligence, leaving no stone unturned when they conducted their background check.

Now, Rams fans just have to sit back and see if Jenkins will be the All-Pro, shutdown corner that he was drafted to be, or if he will follow in the footsteps of other high-risk, high-reward draft picks.

In this story by Michael David Smith (NBC Sports), it sounds like Jenkins is impressing with his performance on the field so far.

Jeff Fisher is impressed, and that has to be an encouraging sign for Rams fans.

Fisher had this to say about Jenkins recent performance at rookie minicamp:

“He’s very talented—obviously we knew that, and that has shown just in the last couple days,"Fisher said. “He’s got excellent football intelligence and he carries things from the classroom to the field. He’s going to be a really good player really soon for us.”

Translation: Fisher sees Jenkins teaming up with Cortland Finnegan, who the Rams signed in free agency, to form one of the best secondaries in football.

At least that's what I interpreted, but hey, I'm like most Rams fans—desperate for anything that sounds like good news right now.

After the last five seasons, the worst five-season stretch by any franchise in NFL history, we need a little good news around here.

So let's hope that Jenkins keeps working hard and that he stays out of trouble. If he can do that, we will probably look back at this draft and say the Rams got the steal of the draft with the No. 39 pick.