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Fantasy Baseball 2020: Ranking Trevor Bauer, Overrated Pitchers Based on ADP

May 20, 2020
Cincinnati Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a spring training baseball game, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2020, in Scottsdale Ariz. (AP Photo/Matt York)
Cincinnati Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a spring training baseball game, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2020, in Scottsdale Ariz. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Fantasy owners often face tough choices when it comes to starting pitching.

While there are clear-cut aces usually taken toward the top of drafts, the need for impact arms in the rotation can sometimes lead to forced decisions.

Relief pitchers are often more volatile in terms of year-over-year statistical fluctuation. Yet plenty of owners like to take a chance on pitchers they feel might be in line for a bounce-back season, or make their selections based on "stuff."

For example, Zack Greinke has been of the most consistently effective starting pitchers in baseball over the course of the past three years. Despite that, Greinke ranks below the likes of Aaron Nola and Blake Snell in terms of average draft position (ADP), per Fantasy Pros.

Let's take a look at the most overrated pitchers in fantasy baseball based on ADP, starting with Cincinnati Reds right-hander Trevor Bauer.

        

Ranking Most Overrated Pitchers Based on ADP

1. Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds (Pos. ADP 22, Ovr. ADP 78)

2. Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics (Pos. ADP 29, Ovr. ADP 113)

3. Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres (Pos. ADP 33, Ovr. ADP 122)

4. Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays (Pos. ADP 20, Ovr. ADP 67)

5. Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (Pos. ADP 13, Ovr. ADP 43)

6. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians (Pos. ADP 35, Ovr. ADP 125)

7. Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (Pos. ADP 12, Ovr. ADP 39)

8. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (Pos. ADP 36, Ovr. ADP 127)

       

Trevor Bauer

Is Bauer's charisma and visibility helping his draft position?

Bauer is a Twitter All-Star and never afraid to speak his mind on the modern issues the game faces, but he is vastly overrated from a fantasy perspective.

The 29-year-old has just one season with a sub-4.00 ERA, when he posted a 2.21 ERA and finished sixth in the American League Cy Young Award voting in 2018. However, that season is an outlier, especially considering Bauer's ineffectiveness in 2019.

Bauer had a ton of success in 2018 because he led the AL in homers per nine innings (0.5). But with balls flying out of the yard in 2019, Bauer struggled. He gave up 1.3 homers per nine innings with the Indians before he was traded to Cincinnati, where he promptly allowed 12 homers in 10 starts.

There is no denying Bauer boasts tremendous strikeout stuff. He has posted at least 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings in each of the last three seasons, and his breaking ball is one of the best in the game.

However, Bauer might not be the most suitable guy to pitch in Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park ranked as the 11th best run-scoring environment last season and was eighth-friendliest for the home run, per ESPN's Park Factor

Bauer is a guy who needs to get to his secondary pitches to have success. But given his walk rate increased last year and he will no longer be making half his starts in Cleveland, there is absolutely no reason he should be getting drafted above the likes of Mike Soroka, Zack Wheeler or Lance Lynn.

       

Jesus Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo has thrown just 12 innings in the bigs. He has not made a single start in the majors. Yet the rookie is being drafted ahead of steadier starters like Lynn, Madison Bumgarner and Kyle Hendricks. Why?

Look, there is no denying Luzardo has immense potential. He struck out 16 in just 12 innings of work with the Athletics last season, and he also threw three scoreless innings during the team's loss to the Rays in the AL Wild Card.

Luzardo has a dominant curve, which recorded a 68.4 percent whiff rate (albeit with a limited sample size) last season, per Baseball Savant. Luzardo also mixes in a combination of sinkers and four-seamers in the upper 90s, and he showed an excellent change of pace with a changeup that drops off the table.

There is every chance in the world Luzardo could be this year's version of Soroka or Chris Paddack. But should he really be ranked above more sure bets like Bumgarner and Hendricks?

Tons of risk-reward is at play when drafting rookies. Guys who are "sure things," like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., sometimes struggle in their rookie seasons, because that's baseball.

Luzardo has all the talent in the world, but owners run the risk of ruining their fantasy seasons by reaching too high for the A's prospect.

      

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted. All fantasy information obtained via Fantasy Pros.

Fantasy Baseball 2020: 1st-Round Mock Draft, Rankings for Top Prospects

May 13, 2020
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08:  Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox runs the bases against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona.  (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox runs the bases against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)

Before Major League Baseball was put on hold, Luis Robert and Jesus Luzardo were expected to shine in their first full seasons.

Robert is expected to begin the 2020 campaign in the Chicago White Sox lineup, which gives him the best chance of any top prospect to make an impact.

Luzardo made his debut for the Oakland Athletics in September and is now projected to take on a larger role within the rotation.

Other prospects could emerge throughout season, but few are expected to match the production of Robert and Luzardo from the start, which makes them the most ideal fantasy prospects.  

                         

Fantasy Baseball 1st-Round Mock Draft

1. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta

2. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

3. Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee

4. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland

7. Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees

8. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado

9. Trea Turner, SS, Washington

10. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets

11. Juan Soto, OF, Washington

12. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado

           

Fantasy Rankings for Top Prospects

1. Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

2. Jesus Luzardo, SP, Oakland

3. Gavin Lux, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers

4. Carter Kieboom, SS, Washington 

5. Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels

6. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox 

7. Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis

8. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota

9. Mackenzie Gore, SP, San Diego

10. Casey Mize, SP, Detroit 

          

Luis Robert

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08:  Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox looks on against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona.  (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox looks on against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)

Robert's minor league power generated buzz for what he could do in a major-league lineup.

The outfielder mashed 32 home runs and drove in 92 runs across three levels of the White Sox system.

Robert spent the most time at Double-A Birmingham, but he made a larger offensive impact at Triple-A Charlotte, where he hit 16 long balls. 

The 22-year-old should be integrated into a lineup headlined by Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and Edwin Encarnacion.

Due to the power already in the White Sox lineup, Robert will likely start in the bottom half of the batting order but could move up if he adjusts well to the majors. 

Although he is the No. 3 prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com, he could make the biggest impact of any top-10 prospect.

Tampa Bay's Wander Franco is not expected to land in the majors in 2020, and Gavin Lux has to fight to remain in a crowded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. 

Since Robert carries so much offensive potential, he should be worth a mid-to-late round pick as outfield depth to start the season. 

                 

Jesus Luzardo 

Luzardo showed promise working out of the Oakland bullpen in September. 

The southpaw conceded two earned runs and struck out 16 batters over 12 innings in six appearances. Those outings were a glimpse into what he can produce in the Athletics' starting rotation this season.

In 2018, he went 10-5 across three minor league levels, and if he hadn't suffered injuries in 2019, he may well have made that impact last season. 

Luzardo should draw fantasy interest because of his strikeout total. He had 129 in 109.1 innings in 2018. 

If the 22-year-old translates that power to the major league mound, he could be a solid provider throughout the season.

Since fantasy owners have been tipped off to his potential, you may have to select Luzardo a round or two before expected. However, the payoff could be worth it if he achieves success in the American League West. 

               

Gavin Lux

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 26: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets ready to make a play during a spring training game against the Los Angeles Angels at Camelback Ranch on February 26, 2020 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 26: Gavin Lux #9 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets ready to make a play during a spring training game against the Los Angeles Angels at Camelback Ranch on February 26, 2020 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Lux hit a pair of home runs and drove in nine runs during his September stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The call-up was a reward for hitting 26 home runs for Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City.

The 22-year-old could provide power in the Dodgers lineup, but there is a concern about how much playing time he will get on a loaded roster. 

He could start at second base, but with right-handed bats Enrique Hernandez and Chris Taylor fighting for playing time, some of Lux's at-bats could be taken away.

Lux hit .270 with four doubles and eight RBI versus right-handed hurlers, but he recorded a single hit in 12 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers.

His power numbers are intriguing, but he needs to improve against southpaws to be a consistent figure in lineups.

            

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference. 

Fantasy Baseball 2020: Gavin Lux, Luis Robert and Top Prospects to Target

Apr 10, 2020
Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux during the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2020, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux during the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2020, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

As Major League Baseball continues to explore ways to play this season, the fantasy world continues to roll on with the hope that we will eventually see games on the field in some way, shape or form. 

One hallmark of recent fantasy drafts has been the value of rookies. Teams have gotten more aggressive promoting their top prospects, aside from the occasional bits of service-time shenanigans. There's certainly more value for clubs because first-year players are among the lowest-paid in the sport. 

For fantasy players, though, the benefit can be the difference between winning and losing a championship. Last year, for instance, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso was ranked outside of ESPN top 50 fantasy stars to start the season before winning NL Rookie of the Year with an MLB-high 53 home runs. 

Looking at the crop of prospects in 2020 who have impact potential, it's another strong group with two obvious standouts because it appears they will start the year in MLB. 

Here are the best rookies to target in your fantasy draft for this season. 

       

Gavin Lux, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers

A natural shortstop, Gavin Lux began his MLB tenure with the Los Angeles Dodgers at second base because Corey Seager is still with the team. 

In his first exposure to the big leagues, Lux hit .240/.305/.400 with two homers and nine RBI in 23 regular-season games last September. It wasn't the immediate breakout showing some prospects have, but it's in no way indicative of the immense talent he possesses. 

The Dodgers are clearly aware of Lux's potential, based on reports throughout the offseason they refused to include him in trade talks for established All-Stars like Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor. 

With Lux in line to start this season as Los Angeles' every day second baseman, he will be given every opportunity to become the next star for an organization that has done a fantastic job developing players over the past five years. 

Per The Athletic's Keith Law, who has Lux ranked as the No. 4 overall prospect in 2020, the 22-year-old has "proven to be a much more disciplined hitter" than expected as he's gone through the minors over the past three seasons: "Out of all minor-league hitters who had at least 25 homers in 2019, he had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate at 19.5 percent, behind two Triple-A guys at least six years his senior. "

Lux has hit .305/.383/.483 with 48 homers, 193 RBI with 202 walks in 396 games in the minors. ZiPS projects the Wisconsin native to hit .267/.331/.456 with 21 homers, 79 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 2020. 

If those numbers prove true, Lux would end this season with more homers than Tommy La Stella (16) and Cavan Biggio (16) and RBI as a second baseman than Jose Alutve (74) and Whit Merrifield (74) had in 2019. 

      

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox seemingly ended any suspense that Robert would begin this season in the big leagues when they signed him to a six-year, $50 million contract in January. 

Robert, 22, has been on the radar for prospect junkies since signing with the White Sox after defecting from Cuba in 2017. His $26 million signing bonus was the second-richest ever for an international free agent, trailing only Yoan Moncada's $31.5 million deal from the Boston Red Sox two years earlier.

In two full minor league seasons, Robert can stake a claim as the best pure hitting prospect. The Cuban sensation hit .328/.376/.624 with 32 homers, 92 RBI, 36 stolen bases in 122 games across three levels last year.

MLB.com has Robert ranked as the No. 3 overall prospect this season: 

"Few players anywhere can match his electric combination of bat speed and foot speed, both of which grade as well above average. His huge right-handed power plays to all fields and he repeatedly drives the ball in the air, though he may have to develop more patience when pitchers refuse to challenge him."

Some may be concerned about Robert initially transitioning to MLB, but he is an aggressive hitter who punched out 55 times in 202 at-bats after getting called up to Triple-A. He still managed to hit .297/.341/.634 at that level, so it's not like he was completely overwhelmed going against advanced competition. 

As long as Robert makes enough contact in the big leagues, his bat speed and raw power will give him a lot of homers right out of the gate as he adjusts to hitting elite-level pitching. 

       

Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Unlike the first two players listed, it's unclear if Jo Adell will open this season in MLB. The Los Angeles Angels' top prospect only played 76 games in 2019 because of a sprained ankle and strained hamstring he suffered on the same play during spring training. 

Of those 76 games, Adell only played 27 at Triple-A and struggled in a small sample size with a .264/.321/.355 slash line. 

In March, MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger listed Adell in the "possibilities" category when putting together the Angels' Opening Day roster, noting the 21-year-old is "likely" to open the year back in Triple-A. 

Reigning American League MVP Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Brian Goodwin were considered locks for the three outfield spots by Bollinger. 

Despite signing a five-year, $108 million extension after the 2017 season, Upton seems like the most vulnerable starting outfielder on the roster right now. The 32-year-old hit .215/.309/.416 with 12 homers and was limited to 63 games last season because of injuries. 

Adell is MLB.com's sixth-ranked prospect coming into this season thanks to a strong offensive profile:

"He still swings and misses quite a bit, carrying a 25.3 percent strikeout rate in his pro career into the 2020 season. He could draw more walks, and it was encouraging to see him walk in nearly 10 percent of his AFL plate appearances, but his elite bat speed and ability to read pitches more than offsets that deficiency. He can drive the ball to all fields and his raw power will almost certainly show up more consistently as he matures."

The Angels made aggressive moves this offseason to take advantage of Trout's prime after missing the playoffs in each of the past five seasons. They signed Anthony Rendon away from the Washington Nationals to handle third base and add an impact bat to their lineup.

Adell might have to wait a little longer before getting the call up to Los Angeles, but all indications are the team is ready to be bold in an attempt to keep pace with the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics in the AL West. 

      

Wild Card: Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Oakland A's

If Jesus Luzardo can stay healthy, he has the upside to give Oakland the No. 1 starting pitcher it has lacked during this recent run of success. 

In three full seasons of professional baseball, Luzardo has only made more than 20 appearances once (2018). He was on pace to start last season in the big leagues until a strained rotator cuff suffered late in spring training shut him down until June. 

The A's brought Luzardo up in September to help with their playoff push. The 22-year-old looked electric with a 1.50 ERA, 16 strikeouts and five hits allowed in six games out of the bullpen. He also tossed three shutout innings in the AL Wild Card Game against the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Law ranked Luzardo as his No. 26 prospect in 2020:

"He’s been up to 97 mph and can sit 92-95 as a starter, with an above-average change and curveball that became plus when he pitched in relief for the big club. Luzardo threw 51 curves and got big-league hitters to swing and miss at 13 (25.5 percent). If he can hold up as a starter, he has a higher pure ceiling than teammate A.J. Puk, with better secondaries and probably better present command."

Obviously, the major caveat for Luzardo is durability. One potential solution for the A's, at least this season, is to use him as a high-leverage multi-inning reliever and/or closer before eventually stretching him out as a starter in 2021 and beyond. 

If that ends up being the case, Luzardo will be tremendous fantasy value because of his ability to rack up saves and high strikeout totals in short bursts. He is a big gamble because of his injury history, but the ceiling is so high to make the risk worth taking in the later rounds of your draft. 

Fantasy Baseball 2020 Rankings: Highlighting Top Prospects to Target

Mar 24, 2020
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08:  Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox runs the bases against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona.  (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox runs the bases against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)

Luis Robert's power across three levels of minor league baseball in 2019 turned him into one of the most hyped incoming prospects for the 2020 Major League Baseball campaign. 

The 22-year-old Chicago White Sox outfielder is expected to be one of the breakout stars of the upcoming campaign because of his production in the minors and the early impression he made in spring training. 

The buzz surrounding Robert should make him an intriguing option in fantasy baseball drafts, and he could be the most coveted prospect in many leagues. 

Oakland Athletics pitcher Jesus Luzardo also experienced a push through the minors in 2019, and toward the end of the regular season, he provided a glimpse of how strong he can be on the mound.

The left-handed pitcher should be one of the most sought after pitching prospects in fantasy drafts since he has an ounce of big league experience on his resume.

                  

Top prospects to target in fantasy baseball

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08:  Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox looks on against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona.  (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox looks on against the Kansas City Royals on March 8, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)

Robert produced 32 home runs and 92 RBI with Single-A Winston-Salem, Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte last season. 

After he shot up the White Sox system to Triple-A, he put up 16 long balls and drove in 39 runs over 47 appearances. Not only did he hit for power, but he was also consistently on base with a .328 batting average and a .376 on-base percentage. 

Robert extended that form into spring training and drew plenty of rave reviews from his teammates, per NBC Sports Chicago's Chuck Garfien.

"He's a special player. I don't think there's anything he can't do on a baseball field,” White Sox catcher James McCann said. "You hear the label of a five-tool player, but you don't hear it thrown around very often. I have a hard time saying that he's not a five-tool player."

The 22-year-old's average draft position in leagues that selected their squads was No. 91, per FantasyPros. If you entered a 12-team league, that means he will likely be off the board by the end of the eighth round.

Until he proves himself, Robert will not be considered as high of a fantasy option as Ronald Acuna Jr. or Mike Trout, but he could be a solid complementary option to those stars. 

Stocking up on one or two of the top-20 outfielders is a wise strategy in the opening rounds, and if you feel confident in Robert's abilities, you could go for him as early as the seventh round.

A pick before that feels like a reach because he is still an unproven commodity, and plenty of outfielders are worth your attention before Robert is the best available player.

                 

Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Oakland Athletics

After making his MLB debut September 11, Luzardo earned 16 strikeouts over 12 innings in six appearances. 

He impressed enough in those outings to earn a spot on Oakland's postseason roster. In his playoff debut, he gave up one hit over three innings versus the Tampa Bay Rays.

In 8.1 innings of spring work, the 22-year-old conceded four hits and a single run while striking out 13 batters. 

Based off his early success with the Athletics, the indication is Luzardo will be a key part of their rotation for the long term.

The southpaw's average draft position is No. 122, per FantasyPros, and it could be higher in some leagues because of his potential. 

The key with Luzardo and other prospects is to buy into the hype but not at an astronomical level where you draft him too early. He isn't worth selecting over the first few tiers of pitchers yet, but if you get to the ninth or 10th round or beyond, he could be a solid value selection.

The Peru-born player is expected to be a valuable part of rosters at some point in 2020, but that could accelerate if he thrives against hitters on both sides of the plate. He gave up one hit to left-handed hitters in 2019 and four base knocks to right-handed batters. 

If Luzardo excels against both types of hitters again in 2020, he could be one of the most effective southpaws in your fantasy rotation.

                 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference

Highlighting Most Impressive Pitchers and Hitters from 2020 MLB Spring Training

Mar 19, 2020
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 28: Relief pitcher Jesus Luzardo #44 of the Oakland Athletics reacts after the final out of a game against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 28, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. The Athletics won 1-0. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 28: Relief pitcher Jesus Luzardo #44 of the Oakland Athletics reacts after the final out of a game against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 28, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. The Athletics won 1-0. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

Fans, analysts and even players often downplay the significance of stats compiled in spring training. Then they can't help but absorb the new data in the hopes of unearthing meaning.

Last spring, Jung-Ho Kang and Matt Adams topped the home run leaderboard. Josh Bell and Lucas Giolito floundered before orchestrating in-season breakthroughs.

Some results, however, proved telling harbingers. Pete Alonso and Chris Paddack pushed their way onto Opening Day rosters by showing they had little left to learn. Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada and Shane Bieber all delivered a sneak peek to their upcoming success while Jon Lester and Travis Shaw showed warning signs of something amiss. 

It likely doesn't matter that Ronald Acuna Jr. (4-for-29, 14 strikeouts) and Gerrit Cole (9 IP, 7 ER) struggled this spring. It's also highly improbable that Isiah Kiner-Falefa (14-for-37, 4 HR) or Glenn Sparkman (8.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K) ride their March momentum to stardom. 

Nevertheless, it's intriguing to see a young talent dominate in exhibition play. And while it's less predictive of any future miracles, it's hard to ignore a fallen star who suddenly turned on the lightbulb before MLB suspended play.

               

Jesus Luzardo, SP, Oakland Athletics

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 02: Jesus Luzardo #44 of the Oakland Athletics throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the American League Wild Card Game at RingCentral Coliseum on October 02, 2019 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Hende
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 02: Jesus Luzardo #44 of the Oakland Athletics throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the American League Wild Card Game at RingCentral Coliseum on October 02, 2019 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Hende

Jesus Luzardo didn't need an impressive spring training to ignite the hype, but the buzz could now ascend into overdrive.  

MLB.com's No. 12 prospect looked poised to arrive early in 2019 before suffering a shoulder strain. Eventually making his debut as a reliever, the righty relinquished just five hits and two runs over a dozen frames.

He's looked just as sharp in spring training. Ready to join the Oakland Athletics' rotation, the 22-year-old yielded one run and five baserunners (four hits, one walk) in 8.1 innings. Luzardo tallied eight of 13 strikeouts in his final outing:

Per MLB.com's Jesse Borek, Luzardo opened spring by firing 95-97 mph on his fastball. But he's far from just a flamethrower; MLB Pipeline also grades his changeup (65), slider (55), and curveball (55) all as above-average offerings.

Stellar stuff and a deep arsenal give the rookie a real opportunity to immediately make a significant impact. He could quickly headline Oakland's rotation the way Paddack did for the San Diego Padres last year.

           

Dylan Bundy, SP, Los Angeles Angels

PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 10: Dylan Bundy #37 of the Los Angeles Angels delivers a pitch during a spring training game against the Seattle Mariners at Peoria Stadium on March 10, 2020 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 10: Dylan Bundy #37 of the Los Angeles Angels delivers a pitch during a spring training game against the Seattle Mariners at Peoria Stadium on March 10, 2020 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

A change of scenery could do the world of good for a pitcher stuck on a terrible team in a dangerous hitter's park. The Los Angeles Angels at least will hope as much after acquiring Dylan Bundy from the Baltimore Orioles.

Once a high-profile prospect, Bundy has sputtered to a 4.67 ERA in four MLB seasons. Despite fanning over a batter per inning in consecutive years, he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Over the last two seasons, nobody served up more home runs than Bundy, who permitted 41 of the 70 in a 2018 campaign not defined by a sport-wide power surge.

That remains a problem Bundy must prove he can fix away from Camden Yards. For now, he showed new life by stockpiling 16 strikeouts to just one walk in 11.1 spring innings.

These results add another line to the case for a Bundy breakout. Baltimore has struggled mightily to develop any pitchers; only the Colorado Rockies have a worse team ERA since the start of 2010. Another team could build up Bundy around an elite slider while diminishing the impact of a heater that got tattooed to a 1.042 OPS in 2019.

The key will be getting more out of his changeup and a seldom-used curveball that induced a .587 OPS last year. On that front, the early returns look promising:

He's also working on improving his fastball location with the help of a different coaching staff. Maybe he doesn't morph into the ace Baltimore envisioned when grabbing him with the fourth pick of the 2011 amateur draft, but a fresh staff could empower Bundy into finally lowering his ERA below the 4.00 threshold.  

                

Danny Jansen, C, Toronto Blue Jays

CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 25: Danny Jansen #9 of the Toronto Blue Jays in action during the spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Spectrum Field on February 25, 2020 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 25: Danny Jansen #9 of the Toronto Blue Jays in action during the spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Spectrum Field on February 25, 2020 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

A popular 2019 breakout candidate, Danny Jansen instead hit .207/.279/.360 in his first full season with the Toronto Blue Jays. Perhaps everyone was one year too early.

The catcher did not strike out once in 20 plate appearances, but he did smash four home runs and a triple among his nine hits.

According to MLB.com's Keegan Matheson, Jansen spent the offseason adjusting his swing to engineer more power.  

"You go out of your legs," Jansen said. "Staying behind the ball is always a key term. I say it's easier said than done, really. Once you stay behind the ball, you create space. If you drive, then think of a 95-mph fastball. You're moving towards it like that, it makes it harder to hit. It's all about staying behind the baseball."

Even without any alterations, Jansen was a strong candidate to improve. Per Baseball Savant's Statcast data, a 40 percent hard-hit rate led the backstop to a .314 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) that looks far better his actual .275 wOBA.

Jansen, who turns 25 in April, could be the case of a successful spring foreboding a legitimate breakthrough. 

            

Chris Davis, 1B/DH, Baltimore Orioles

SARASOTA, FLORIDA - MARCH 02: Chris Davis #19 of the Baltimore Orioles watches the ball after hitting a sacrifice fly to right during  the sixth inning of a Grapefruit League spring training game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Ed Smith Stadium on March 02,
SARASOTA, FLORIDA - MARCH 02: Chris Davis #19 of the Baltimore Orioles watches the ball after hitting a sacrifice fly to right during the sixth inning of a Grapefruit League spring training game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Ed Smith Stadium on March 02,

Last season, Chris Davis went 38 plate appearances before recording his first hit. Factoring in a prior September swoon to conclude 2017, the designated hitter was marred in a historic 0-for-54 slump.

It never got much better in 2018. The man who swatted 53 homers in 2013 and 47 in 2015 batted an appalling .179/.276/.326. Not even the last-place Orioles could justify playing the former star slugger despite his $23 million annual salary.

A measly 24 plate appearances in exhibition play obviously doesn't erase years of futility. It did, however, make for a feel-good story fueling the slightest hopes of an improbable renaissance.

Davis made the most of a shortened spring by going 7-for-15 with nine walks and three home runs. The most impressive part of the tiny sample size is his three strikeouts. That may not seem too noteworthy, but no other hitter had a higher strikeout rate over the last three seasons than his gargantuan 37.6 percent.

At the very least, a strong March could motivate Baltimore to give the 34-year-old one last chance at a starting gig. 

            

Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs unless stated otherwise.

Fantasy Baseball 2020: Top Prospects to Draft for Opening Day Impact

Zach Buckley
Mar 12, 2020
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 10:  Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox bats against the Texas Rangers on March 10, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 10: Luis Robert #88 of the Chicago White Sox bats against the Texas Rangers on March 10, 2020 at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)

Nothing catches the eye of the fantasy baseball crowd quite like a top prospect.

He's new. He's exciting. And if you time his ascension right, he just might be the biggest reason you capture the crown this season.

But the way you value 2020's top prospects depends on your willingness to play the waiting game.

If you're practicing patience, you might prefer drafting and stashing the likes of Wander Franco or Jo Adell. But since you're a member of society in 2020, patience probably isn't your best attribute. You want instant gratification, and we're here to provide it by spotlighting the prospects ready to help your team from Opening Day.

                   

Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

The White Sox silenced all service time concerns with Luis Robert's promotion by inking him to a six-year, $50 million deal in January. Look for the South Siders to seek an early return on that investment from this power-and-speed source.

The 22-year-old could be a fantasy juggernaut. Last season, which he played predominantly in AA and AAA, he totaled 32 home runs and 36 stolen bases in only 122 games. He also posted a .328 batting average and reached base at a 37.6 percent clip.

Should fantasy owners bank on another 30/30 season? Not at all. His game needs work, especially with plate discipline. The less appealing portion of his 2019 stat sheet showed 129 strikeouts against only 28 walks.

But his ceiling can't be seen from the ground floor. His tools are tremendous. His stolen base potential alone is almost invaluable in today's market. In other words, he is worth a major investment, even if it entails some risk.

                     

Jesus Luzardo, SP, Oakland Athletics

There's no such thing as a can't-miss pitching prospect, but Jesus Luzardo is closer to that label than most.

The 22-year-old already enjoyed a cup of coffee at the major-league level, punching out 16 batters while allowing just five hits, three walks and two runs in 12 innings last season. Granted, he lost a lot of that campaign to injury, but if you're searching for stains on his resume, that might be the only one.

"Whatever flaws Luzardo has I'm not seeing," CBS Sports' Scott White wrote. "Three-plus pitches. Excellent command. His durability may be in question after he surrendered most of 2019 to injury, but he debuted strong and already has a rotation spot to lose."

Luzardo might be Oakland's ace, even if the franchise doesn't designate him as such. He will be a critical component of this rotation, and he can already help your fantasy team with strong ratios and a ton of Ks.

                

Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Consider this an optimistic recommendation.

Dylan Carlson's Opening Day outlook isn't as certain as Robert's and Luzardo's, but it should be. The 21-year-old Carlson has posted a .323 batting average (.432 on-base percentage) with four extra-base hits in 11 games. He also has more walks (six) than strikeouts (five).

The problem is the Cardinals might be content to start out their more expensive veterans early and then bring up Carlson when they are comfortable starting his service clock.

"What Dylan's done up to this point has been amazing," Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak said, per KMOX's Tom Ackerman. "The key will be what others do as well."

The Cardinals have other options at outfield—including Lane Thomas, Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler—but none approach Carlson's ceiling. He seems ready to start his realizing his potential. Last season, he clubbed 26 homers, swiped 20 bags and posted a .372 on-base percentage across 126 games at the AA and AAA levels.

If St. Louis does its part and clears the runway, Carlson is ready to take flight.