USC Basketball

Tim Floyd’s USC program entered the week with one goal, which was to win the Pac-10 basketball tournament. The difference between achieving and failing to do so, would be the significant difference between playing in the NIT and NCAA tournament.

The Trojans reached their goal, defeating 24th ranked Arizona State 66-63 to win the Pac-10 title for the first time in the school’s history. And appearing as the conference’s sixth seed, they also became the lowest  to ever be crowned.

While the victory rewards USC with a prize that appeared to be unattainable just weeks ago, it placed a serious hurt on Arizona’s hopes of a tournament appearance and extension of their 24-consecutive streak. 

In this final week of musical chairs, the tune was halted and the Trojans planted their bottoms in a seat. The Wildcats are left standing in the silence, waiting for the words that will determine their fate.

The Desert Cats now face slim odds, though entry is not an improbable notion,  but the Trojans just made it more difficult. If the Pac-10’s resume shows enough body of work to warrant 60 percent of the conference appearing in the madness, the Wildcats may become that sixth team. 

But with upsets occurring in some of the mid-major conferences, which led to fewer at-large seats for power leagues, Arizona may find it difficult to gain acceptance over some Big East and ACC programs.

Weeks ago, USC wasn’t even a “bubble” discussion. They were a team engaged in fisticuffs with each other, and reeling in the Pac 10. Today, of all things, we’re left wondering how much of an impact they can have in the upcoming tournament.

Why they could be dangerous

Defense is the backbone of this Trojans team. They force opponents into bad shots and poor shooting percentages, while also profiting from turnovers. USC trailed by double digits at halftime of the Pac 10 Championship Game.

And opening the second with full court pressure, quickly shaved the deficit and put them right back in the game. Taj Gibson presents a shot-blocking and rebounding presence down low, denying easy hoops and few second chance opportunities.

The program is defensively comparable to Washington State teams over the past three years, who used a stifling defense to work deep into the tournament.

Offensively, freshman DeMar DeRozen has stepped up his game. Averaging just 14 points in the regular season, he went for 21 and 25 in upset victories over UCLA and Arizona State in the Pac-10 tournament.

Guard play is proven repeatedly to be the most important element for advancement in the NCAA tournament, and despite the presence of Blake Griffin, Hakeem Thabeet, and DeJuan Blair, I don’t expect that to change.

Why they may be a non-factor

The NCAA tournament is a rigorous event, and one thing USC lacks is depth. At most, the Trojans go six or seven deep, not getting much contribution from the bench.

Eventually, the wear and tear of tournament play may take a toll, if it hasn’t already.

They are also a poor shooting program from the charity stripe. Only one point separated them in losses against Oklahoma and Seton Hall, and they had several opportunities late in other games played. Lack of depth and poor free throw shooting is a mixture for defeat, and also the formula for an early tournament exit.

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Things were starting to settle a bit yesterday afternoon as some of the 10 and 11 seeds could breathe as the higher seeds took control in their conference tournaments. However, Kentucky needs a miracle after LSU took them out and is likely to see their streak of 17 straight tournament appearances come to an end.

Then came the night games.

Syracuse survived another overtime to beat West Virginia and advance to the Big East finals. But Baylor and USC also reached their finals, which could result in the death of two at-large dreams if they win today. Michigan and Cal have precarious holds on their at-large bids, so wins by their brethren could see them on the outside looking in.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic 10 final has Temple squaring off against Duquesne. Give yourself major hoops-geek points if you picked that scenario. With Xavier and Dayton likely receiving bids the A-10 gets three teams in.

The SEC is looking like a two-bid league with LSU and Tennessee being the only teams to dance. Auburn has to beat the Vols at the very least to be considered as the third team and Mississippi State has to win the whole shooting match.

The last four in at the moment: St. Mary's, Maryland (thanks to a win over Wake Forest), Cal, and Michigan.

The last four out are: Auburn, Penn State, Florida, and South Carolina.

After today, things should be set in stone. Only three bids get clinched tomorrow (ACC, SEC, and Big Ten).

Bracket Projection (teams who have clinched are in bold)

1 Pitt v 16 Radford

2 Duke v 15 Morgan State

3 Kansas v 14 Portland State

4 Florida State v 13 Cleveland State

5 UCLA v 12 VCU

6 Tennessee v 11 Creighton

7 BYU v 10 Wisconsin

8 Ohio State v 9 Texas A&M

South Region

1 UNC v 16 Morehead State

2 Oklahoma v 15 East Tennessee State

3 Villanova v 14 Buffalo

4 Xavier v 13 Northern Iowa

5 West Virginia v 12 St. Mary’s

6 Purdue v 11 Temple

7 Arizona State v 10 Boston College

8 Butler v 9 Texas

Midwest Region

1 Louisville v 16 Play-In (Chattanooga v Alabama St.)

2 Michigan State v 15 Cornell

3 Wake Forest v 14 Binghamton

4 Missouri v 13 American

5 Gonzaga v 12 Maryland

6 Utah v 11 California

7 Marquette v 10 Utah State

8 LSU v 9 Minnesota

West Region

1 Memphis v 16 CS-Northridge

2 UConn v 15 Robert Morris

3 Washington v 14 North Dakota State

4 Syracuse v 13 Stephen F. Austin

5 Illinois v 12 Western Kentucky

6 Oklahoma State v 11 Michigan

7 Clemson v 10 San Diego State

8 Dayton v 9 Siena

Craig Trapp from CT Sports Picks is happy to announce a special March Madness Free Bracket Challenge. Winner will get $250.00. Contest is sponsored by CT Sports Picks.com and cbb place.com so make sure you check back over the weekend or Sign up for Craig's Newsletter and he will send you details this weekend!

• Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four Friday games.
• Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog.
• Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
• Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.
• Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
• Bruins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Friday games.
• Bruins are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.

USC Trojans (18-12, 9-9) vs. California Golden Bears (22-9, 11-7)

Thursday, March 12, 2009 – 6:00 PM PST

The third quarter final game of the Pac-10 tournament features the No. 6 seed USC Trojans against the No. 3 seed California Golden Bears.

These two teams split the season series with each winning on its home court.

USC was a 73-62 winner at the end of January and Cal turned the tables on the Trojans, 81-78, a month later.

In the first game, Cal only connected on 40.7 percent of their shots. They were a dreadful 2-of-16 from three-point land.

The Trojans would’ve won by a very comfortable margin if they shot better than 58.6 percent from the free throw stripe.

USC had four players reach double figures led by DeMar DeRozan’s 19.

Taj Gibson recorded a double-double with 12 points and 13 boards while Dwight Lewis also scored 12.  Daniel Hackett finished with 14 points.

For the Bears, Jamal Boykin scored 18 to go along with 10 boards.

Jordan Wilkes just missed a double-double with 16 points and nine rebounds. Jerome Randle finished with 12 points and five dimes.

The second contest went to overtime before Cal emerged victorious.

Once again, the Trojans cost themselves at the free throw line converting only 57.1 percent. In such a close game, a few more free throws would’ve earned USC the road win.

Patrick Christopher had the huge game for Cal with 29 points.

Randle had 15 points and eight assists while Theo Robertson finished with 10 points.

Hackett led USC with 26 points while Gibson was right behind him with 21 points and 12 boards.

Lewis and DeRozan both finished with 10 points.

Current line: California -1.5

USC is 12-13 against the spread with a record of 4-5 as an underdog.

Cal is 14-11-1 against the spread with a record of 7-5 as the favorite.

Expect a close game between these two schools. But with the tournament being played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, the Trojans will have a home court advantage.

Steve’s pick: USC +1.5

The last four teams to go shopping for tuxedos are:  Michigan (who put a valiant effort against UConn this weekend), Southern Cal (more on them later), Arizona (really starting to play better and now have a winning record in the Pac-10) and Cincinnati (who'd have thought it?)

The last four teams to stay at home crying and watching movies are: Kansas State (had a lower profile than Nebraska, even though the two are very similar), St. Joe's (just can't see a third A-10 team getting in), UAB (nice RPI but a third-place sitting in C-USA) and Providence (they don't stand out enough to justify being the ninth team from the Big East).

My big mover up from last week is Florida State, who comes off of a win over Clemson and pushed North Carolina to the wire previously.  Leonard Hamilton can breathe easier for the moment.

My big mover down is the aforementioned USC Trojans.  In all fairness, I overrated them a bit even though they are a talented team.  However, they are sitting just above .500 in the Pac-10 at the moment and Tim Floyd is one of those coaches that is straight out of corporate middle management. 

He's a good motivator and will promise you the moon, but when it comes to planning and strategy, he's not the guy you want to go for.  Billy Gillispie and Bruce Pearl fit into this category as well and their teams also barely made this week's dance card.

East

1 UConn vs. 16 Morgan St.

2 Michigan State vs. 15 Robert Morris

3 Memphis vs. 14 American

4 Wake Forest vs. 13 Buffalo

5 Washington vs. 12 Michigan

6 Florida vs. 11 BYU

7 Syracuse vs. 10 Texas

8 Davidson vs. 9 Dayton

South

1 North Carolina vs. 16 Boston U.

2 Marquette vs. 15 ETSU

3 Clemson vs. 14 VMI

4 Missouri vs. 13 Northeastern

5 Illinois vs. 12 Southern Cal

6 Purdue vs. 11 Kentucky

7 Cal vs. 10 Utah

8 South Carolina vs. 9 West Virginia

Midwest

1 Pitt vs. 16 Play-In (Alabama St./Princeton)

2 Duke vs. 15 Morehead State

3 Villanova vs. 14 North Dakota State

4 Kansas vs. 13 Northern Iowa

5 Ohio State vs. 12 Arizona

6 Arizona State vs. 11 Nebraska

7 LSU vs. 10 San Diego State

8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Virginia Tech

West

1 Oklahoma vs. 16 Long Beach State

2 Louisville vs. 15 Weber State

3 Xavier vs. 14 Stephen F. Austin

4 UCLA vs. 13 Western Kentucky

5 Butler vs. 12 Cincinnati

6 Florida State vs. 11 Tennessee

7 Minnesota vs. 10 Siena

8 Utah State vs. 9 Boston College

It’s the first of February and there are bubbles in the air.

As teams position themselves for at-large consideration, remember it doesn’t take much for a given team to ascend or descend with respect to their bubble status.

In Friday’s edition, I mentioned Providence and Arizona as teams that have played themselves into the bubble discussion, while Michigan and Stanford are seemingly NIT-bound. Nothing over the weekend has changed that status.

Here are the weekend winner and losers. As always, comments are welcome.

Note: Next edition will be published on Friday morning. All RPI and SOS numbers are taken from realtimerpi.com.

Winners

South Carolina

I mentioned earlier that I wasn’t going to jump on the S. Carolina bandwagon unless the Gamecocks knocked off Kentucky in Rupp arena. Well, I’m officially on the wagon, and S. Carolina is looking like a solid at-large team.

Texas A&M

It wasn’t long ago Aggie fans were complaining about the tough, early conference schedule. After two wins in row, A&M is 3-4 in the Big 12 and in good shape. A big game this week at Oklahoma would look really good on their resume.

Northwestern

Yes, the Wildcats are on the list after beating Wisconsin on Saturday. Although they're only 4-5 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has four RPI Top-50 wins and an SOS that ranks in the mid-20s—the type of things the NCAA committee likes to see.

Cincinnati

The Bearcats are starting to make some noise in the Big East. The win over Georgetown on Saturday gives them three wins over the RPI Top 50. They have a tough three-game stretch and can’t afford to go 0-3.

USC

The Trojans were on the list Friday after beating Stanford. USC doubled up by beating Cal and improved to 6-3 in the Pac-10, only a game behind co-leaders UCLA and Washington. By the way, USC travels to UCLA Wednesday night.

Other winners: Arizona, Northeastern, VCU, Rhode Island, Utah, UNLV, LSU, BYU, Missouri, Temple, Boston College, San Diego St., Utah St., Penn St.

Losers

Oklahoma St.

The Cowboys have great RPI and SOS numbers. Closer inspection reveals only two Top-50 wins. Oklahoma St. needs to get rolling after dropping two in a row, with the last being at Texas A&M on Saturday.

Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes have lost three in a row with Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina on deck. That’s what makes Saturday’s loss to Maryland so big.

Baylor

The Bears looked to be in great shape a week ago. After Saturday’s loss at Missouri, and with Kansas and Oklahoma in two of their next three, Baylor could be in trouble.

Notre Dame

Sure, the Irish have lost five games to five of the best teams in the country. But sooner or later, you have to win games to get into the tournament. Things aren’t getting any easier with Cincinnati, UCLA, and Louisville up next.

St. Mary’s

The loss to Gonzaga on the road with Patty Mills getting hurt was one thing. Getting blown out by Portland is another. By the way, the Gaels have no RPI Top-50 wins and only two Top-100 wins.

Other Losers: Michigan, Stanford, Providence, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Florida, California, St. Josesph’s, George Mason

Last night, I was flipping through the channels on my TV, and I came across some college basketball on ESPN—the "so-called" king of sports media. 

After watching some of the Duke/NC State game on Tuesday—on ESPN—I shrugged off my urge to watch the North Carolina/Clemson game last night. 

As an avid sports fan living in the heart of the West Coast, I am tired of the East Coast bias that ESPN—and most major sports mediums—surround themselves with and entail.

The examples are there. In every popular sport across this country, franchises and teams located on the Eastern side of the US get more media attention than any other region by far, excluding maybe USC and the Dallas Cowboys. 

It seems to me that every night during the college basketball season, either UNC or Duke is playing on ESPN. Granted, I know that these are two of the premier teams and traditions in college basketball history.

But let me point something out.

UCLA may be the No. 1 basketball program of all time, and they are constantly in the top 10 in the rankings, including three straight Final Four bids. They will have three of their remaining games nationally televised.

Arizona State, also in the Pac-10, is a proven good squad now, thanks to the past few years. Currently ranked 17th in the nation—and fresh off a victory at UCLA—the Sun Devils are not perceived as a top program. I don't believe it will ever happen for certain reasons. 

Maybe this will do the explaining. 

Notice something?  That's right. For the remainder of the season, they will have one game nationally broadcasted—on ESPN. It's against UCLA. Outside the fans in the Pac-10, I am not sure many people even know ASU is ranked!

In comparison, here is the rest of the schedule for UNC.

Yes. You are reading that correctly. That is 10 of their final 11 games that will be nationally televised on a major network.

Here are Duke's remaining games.

Oh. What a shame. Duke only has nine of their final games nationally televised. 

College basketball is just one example of how the West Coast gets the back seat in national attention. I mean, it makes sense when you know ESPN is centered in Bristol, CT. The New York market is less than an hour away, and it is easy to get caught up in what is around you.

While I recognize the TV deals that are currently in place (Pac-10 with FSN and ACC/Big East with ESPN), I feel it's tough to not have any media attention focused on the schools out here. These TV stats reflect our current situation—with conferences having TV deals for their games. Hopefully, the Pac-10 can get a better media deal in place in a few years. But, for now, I guess it sucks to be a West Coast fan. 

Bear with me now as I flip on ESPN and catch the West Virginia/Georgetown game...nothing else is on.

When Washington State (11-7, 3-3) and USC (12-6, 3-4) hit the floor Saturday afternoon in Pullman, WA, you'll see two teams ready to take out their frustration on an opponent.

USC is coming off a loss, 78-73, Thursday night to the streaking Huskies in Seattle.  The game was one of offensive runs, with Washington putting together a streak that proved to be the difference in the game.

Trojan guard Daniel Hackett scored a season-high 24 points, including a spectacular 30-foot buzzer beater at the end of the first half.  Hackett's heave from just inside the time line ripped through the twine and looked to rip out the hearts of the Huskies.

It didn't.

With the heart of a lion and the will of a man possessed, the pride and energy of Hackett wasn't enough to earn Coach Tim Floyd's team a victory.

Washington State is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to No. 11 UCLA, 61-59.

The Bruins appeared to have the game put away in the first half when Nikola Dragovic rained in three-point shots from everywhere.

The Cougs not only fought back, riding the hot hand of senior Caleb Forrest; they were in position to either tie or win the game in regulation.

WSU couldn't close the deal.

Expect a high energy game between these two talented teams from the opening tip-off at 3pm on the hardwood of Friel Court.

The Trojans are hoping that their top scorer, Dwight Lewis, will be able to play.  Lewis tweaked an ankle during practice Monday and was still hobbling around Thursday night.  He didn't even suit up for the game against Washington.

With Coach Floyd looking for more scoring from highly touted freshman DeMar DeRozan, the backcourt matchup will be key to the outcome of this game.

Can WSU young gun Klay Thompson shut down the skilled DeRozan?

Thompson has the size and quickness to give DeRozan a bad time, but no one is going to shut this kid down completely.  He's just too quick and too clever.  

At the other guard spot is a matchup between the leaders of their respective teams.

Senior Taylor Rochestie will have the assignment of taking Hackett out of his comfort zone.  Rochestie has been playing outstanding defense for the Cougs in conference play.  He did a nice job of quieting the force on UCLA's team, Darren Collison, for most of the game.

Though Hackett has the physical advantage, that doesn't matter to Rochestie.  The crafty southpaw will be all over Hackett like...well...like white on rice.

Washington State should be able to exploit their advantage inside with senior Aron Baynes.  Working the offense through Baynes will be pivotal (pun intended).  The senior has game inside and should be able to lure super-athletic Taj Gibson into aggressive fouls.  Without Gibson, the Trojans will have trouble on the boards.

The big advantage for Washington State in this game will be the energy generated by the Zzu Cru. When the fans roar, the Cougs respond.

The time has come for the WSU young guns to assert themselves and rebound from the tough loss to UCLA.

Seriously.