USC Basketball

In light of the alleged acceptance of gifts and cash by former USC guard O.J. Mayo, some talking heads have suggested that college athletes should get paid. Others say that they are compensated with a free education.

I think the most culpable party in most of these situations is the university itself.  USC has had two of these type of alleged incidents involving their athletes recently (Reggie Bush of course being the other). 

The other common denominator in these two situations is the fact that both Bush and Mayo were on their way to pros when the allegations came out.  Mayo has of course declared for June's NBA Draft and should be a lottery pick.  Seems to be too late to really discipline the specific player.

I have also thought that the media coverage of this Mayo thing has been a little excessive.  I can basically promise you that college kids get stuff on the side, probably even during the recruiting process. 

How else would you explain Kansas State, not exactly a college basketball powerhouse, getting a talented kid the caliber of Michael Beasley?  You can't tell me some of the bigger college basketball programs weren't recruiting Beasley.  But maybe his high-school grades weren't up to par to get into some of those schools. 

My point is that college athletes in the higher revenue sports, i.e football and basketball, probably see some reward on the side from program boosters, alumni, etc. 

Should they? You could make an argument that they should, for the money they make the athletic department and the university as a whole at the more successful programs.  

I don't think that paying college athletes is the answer, however.   Universities should maintain a higher ethical standard, though I realize some don't so that their athletic programs will seem to be more successful, at least in wins and losses on the field of play.  

But it occurs to me that academic standards, and thus graduation rates, for NCAA athletes are a joke.  That needs to be changed. 

Part of the blame may lie in the NBA's recent rule change that a player can no longer enter the NBA Draft directly from high school.  Many of the better players enter college with no intent on staying four years and graduating.

I knew a guy in high school, good guy, good friend. Not the brightest bulb in the box. But he was steadfast, and knew what he was good at. He excelled at shop class, and sports. He knew he wasn't good enough to be pro athlete, and he knew what he liked to do. He's a mechanic now, he had to scratch and claw his way to get his high school diploma, but he got it.

You may ask what this has got to do with OJ Mayo, or college athletics in general. Here it is: both my friend, and OJ Mayo, were never cut out for college life. My friend left high school and immediately got a job as an apprentice at a local mechanic's shop.

OJ Mayo should have had the same opportunity, he should have been allowed to join the NBA right out of high school. He has the skills, every scout and talent evaluator says the same, there is no dissension on this point. He is a pro basketball player, and has been for the last year. By forcing him, and so many other players, to join a college team for one season (and soon to be two if David Stern has his way), the NBA is essentially saying that they do not believe that their owners and GM's have the wherewithal to judge young talent on their merits without seeing them in heavier competition. 

Stern has a point, let us examine the numbers.

There are thousands of high schools in the USA, and of the players on those thousands of teams, only the top one or two players, the All-State players, will get full-ride scholarships to a Division I or II college. That leaves thousands of would-be pro players out in the cold, relegated to lower D-II or III schools or giving up the ghost altogether and just moving on.

Now, think about how many real good D-I colleges there are, just under a hundred. All the players on those teams were All-State in their respective high schools.

The NBA has about 30 teams, each with about 15 players on them. That's 450 jobs every year. The Draft allows each team to choose 2 players if they don't trade for more picks or less. That's 60 new players in the NBA every year! 60 out of thousands.

That's not even counting the players from other countries that come to the US without needing to attend college! It comes down to about 1% of all basketball players in the US who can go pro. The rest flame out quick or never make it past the NBDL.

Stern can use the argument that he is protecting both these kids and the teams that may draft them.

Sure, there are success stories like Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant and Lebron James. There are also spectacular failures like James Cook, or Kwame Brown. But David Stern is not a professional philanthropist. He is in fact the man who has overseen the meteoric rise of the NBA from also-ran league into a mega-million industry, with more young urban fans every year than any sport save football. He is not a giver, he is a businessman. This forcing of high school grads to attend college is not for their benefit, it is for the benefit of his sport.

The NCAA tournament directly affects the NBA. What better stage exists to showcase talent that will soon be in the NBA than the media frenzy that follows the annual March tournament?

David Stern gets ready-made superstars for his league without having to worry about the risk of a GM or Owner taking a flier on some kid who may or may not end up burning out fast. The NCAA gets NBA talent to stay in their sport for at least a year, boosting their ratings even further and generating money for their universities. It's a love-love relationship.

So why shouldn't OJ Mayo take some cabbage to play at USC?

He knows he isn't graduating, doesn't care about the university after he leaves, and has no form of income. Who wouldn't take the extra cash? The average college kid has to go to class full time, study, and then work a job just to get his or her rent paid, and maybe then they'd have some cash to take a friend out or go on a date.

With the millions of dollars being dangled in front of these players, it's not a surprise that agents are giving them "gifts" in exchange for future representation.  

How do we fix this problem? Is it a problem at all? I think it is, and here's a few suggestions to help it:

1. First off, lose the idea of paying college athletes. They get paid. That's what not having to pay the exhorbitant amount of money to get a higher education is for.

I know, I'm in debt up to my eyeballs for a bachelor's degree in accounting, and if I'd have known I could have avoided it by working on my jump shot, I would have. Paying college athletes would open the door for still more corruption. Throwing money at a money-based problem is like throwing a lighter into a forest fire. It doesn't help.  

2. Get rid of the one year mandatory college attendance rule, it's outdated and completely unnecessary. It's America, let the kid go pro if he's 18. If he flames out, it's his fault.

You can help keep the likelihood of bad drafting down if you send out counselors to high schools across the country, lecturing on the dangers of listening to your parents, talent scouts and agents instead of NBA scouts.

Go look up that Cook kid and give him a job telling people exactly how hard it is to make an NBA squad.

Also, develop the NBDL more, make it more like the MLB minor league teams. It will allow players to test their skills on more talented competition without forcing them into school.

In addition, you could allow roster expansion towards the end of the year, allowing teams to test these youngsters out on real competition in preparation for the next year, or as fresh legs for the playoffs. It works for baseball.

3. Let's everyone: the fans, media, parents, agents, scouts, and teams, dial back on the hype.

I don't want to read in Sports Illustrated about the latest 13 year old to sign a letter of intent to USC. That's sick!

I was still playing Super Mario Bros. when I was 13. I didn't care to think about what I was going to do with my life professionally.

It is extremely unhealthy to continue to tell kids who don't know the difference between genuine skill and hype that they have what it takes to make it in the pros without also telling them that less than 1% of all basketball players turn pro.

I remember watching LeBron James play in a high school basketball game when he was 17, and thinking it was the most asinine thing ever. If James had gone supernova in one year, we'd all be laughing at ESPN and everyone else for hyping him so much. Lucky us that he didn't.

The machine is not broken, but it is a little rundown. Stern is obviously a very smart man, but he is also a bit of a sneak, and a user. He used Magic Johnson and Larry Bird to build his league. He used Michael Jordan to extend it into the mainstream And he's using high school kids and the NCAA tournament to keep it there.

He's using the failures of some owners to evaluate talent to bludgeon the rest of them into forcing these kids to go to college. And that is just plain communism. And we all know communism doesn't work.

O.J. Mayo was all over the top headlines yesterday. He has received over $30,000 in gifts and other goodies since his sophomore year in high school.

It shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone that OJ Mayo was going to play in the NBA one day. At 15, this kid was being compared to Michael Jordan, and his ability to dominate the court drew everyone's attention, including the Billy Duffy Agency (DBA).
 
Rodney Gillory, an event promoter in Los Angeles, helped supply Mayo with money and other benefits so he would be represented by Bill Duffy’s agency.

Billy Duffy’s Agency also represents Steve Nash, Tayshaun Price, Rajon Rondo, and number of other NBA athletes.

Gillory was known as a “runner.” His job was to keep track of Mayo at all times and ensure that he did not get into trouble. Gillory would make sure Mayo was always was supplied with money, food, clothes, or big screen TV’s for his dorms.

Yes, this is a violation of the NCAA rules that goes against players receiving gifts.

Does Bill Duffy care, and is anything going to stop him from doing something like this again?
 
No. By partaking in these illegal practices, Duffy has lured one of the biggest players in this year's draft to be his client.

Duffy is currently ranked eighth in the agent rankings on Hoops Hype. Because money talks, he should continue to recruit college and high school players illegally, because it appeared to have worked this time.
 
And unless the league cracks down, which I doubt it is going to do, I highly suggest that Bill Duffy keep up the good work, and continue going after other players that are currently in high school who could use some money right now.
 
As Mayo continues to take no responsibility and no action appears to be taken on this issue, I give a shout out to Billy Duffy.
 
Your $200,000 over the past four years, and $30,000 to O.J Mayo will certainly pay off in the years to come.
 
Congrats Bill!

Former USC star O.J. Mayo received around $30,000 in cash and gifts while he was in high school and his one year in college, ESPN reported, citing a former associate of the player.

Rodney Guillory, a Los Angeles event promoter, gave Mayo the cash and gifts using money given him by a sports agency named Billy Duffy Associates, ESPN reported, citing Johnson.

BDA gave Guillory around $200,000 before Mayo came to USC, ESPN reported, although Guillory used most of the money for himself, Johnson said, ESPN reported. In exchange for the gifts, Mayo agreed to allow the agency to represent him when he turned pro, ESPN reported, citing Johnson.

Mayo played his freshman season at USC and has entered the NBA draft, hiring Calvin Andrews of BDA as his agent.

It will be very interesting to see how USC and Floyd respond to this. Again, this isn't entirely USC's fault, but the appearance of impropriety from both the basketball program and the football program certainly doesn't leave the best first impression.

And you know the old saying—"where there's smoke, there's fire". I would hardly consider it a coincidence that these questions are coming from both the football and basketball programs, especially given the fact that the basketball program doesn't generate nearly as much animosity as the football program.

UPDATE: Here's the video from Outside the Lines that broke this story. There's more to come with this, I'm sure.



UPDATE #2: I'm sure we all remember this, don't we? The long and the short of it was that Mayo was spotted with court side Lakers tickets, and later—Carmelo Anthony had supposedly come forward to claim that he gave the tickets to Mayo, so no problem.

Guess who Carmelo Anthony is represented by? Bill Duffy Associates—the same agency in which Mayo has now signed and which is fingered in the OTL report as funnelling money and gifts to Mayo. Yep, that seems totally legit.

ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” program has reported that former USC basketball player OJ Mayo received around $30,000 worth of benefits from Rodney Guillory, a “runner” for sports agency, Bill Duffy Associates. This is not just a passing accusation either; OTL has a mountain of evidence detailing the story. It stretches back to when Mayo was in high school in Huntington, West Virginia.

I was going to draw some detailed parallels between Mayo’s case and the Reggie Bush case, but Pat Forde already beat me to it. He goes a bit over the top, I think, but it’s a nice summary of the allegations.

The troubling aspect is how cavalier USC appears to have acted towards agents and their influence. Yahoo! Sports’s investigation into the football program showed that agents and their representatives were allowed to be in the locker room and on the sidelines at practices and games.

Now we find out that the school did nothing about the fact that Mayo was known to be associated with Guillory, despite the fact that former USC guard Jeff Trepagnier and a former Frenso State basketball player were suspended for accepting benefits from him. It's as though Sergeant Schultz was serving as the USC compliance officer.

Every major program has trouble with agents. The University of Florida, my alma mater, suffered its own scandal with the Tank Black episode back in the mid-1990s. If anything, that fact should make schools more vigilant about keeping agents and their runners away from their players. USC especially needed to be on that beat, considering the Reggie Bush fiasco and the fact - and this was news to me - it’s against California state law for agents to give gifts to amateur athletes.

Really, Mayo was a ticking time bomb for NCAA compliance. He has been in the spotlight since he was in middle school. His family was very poor, yet he had nice clothes, nice shoes, and a 42″ TV in his dorm. USC head coach Tim Floyd apparently had contacts with Guillory during the recruiting process, despite Guillory’s past history with the school. All the signs were there.

Mayo’s case also ties in with a lot of other issues in college sports - the role of media and now colleges in middle school athletics, the NBA’s age limit, and the NCAA’s historically laughable record of enforcing its own rules. Combined with the Bush case, it shines a light squarely on the issue of whether USC can police itself.

Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire. We have not just one, but two major sports media outlets that have done far more investigation into Trojan players than USC itself has. From those studies, it would seem that agents and their influence are an accepted part of the culture at USC between agents being allowed at football practice and Guillory not being blackballed from the men’s basketball program.

How about it USC? When are you going to regain institutional control?

If you missed my interview with Leigh Steinberg, I suggest you check it out. I am no longer a 1L! For those of you non-legal people, that means that I made it through the toughest year of law school. Hopefully, it will be all smooth sailing from here. I am back home in South Florida, where I will be working on Dynasty for the rest of this summer (minus a short trip to Israel from May 11-21). Picking the next two Dynasty interns is going to be close to impossible, but I am going to give it my best. Also, keep lookout for a HUGE change to the look of this site. I am working on a complete switch over to a new design, but it will take a while (expect it sometime at the end of May). Anyway, here are some stories I missed over the past week:

• I think it’s safe to say that basketball agent, Jeff Schwartz, is no longer invited to dinner at Lute Olson’s house [Blame agents and everyone else].
• Chances are you have never heard of this guy, but he just became the third highest paid offensive tackle in the NFL [Roos Gets $43 Million Extension From Titans].
• He must be a true sportsman, he’s the only player to win the award twice [Suns’ Hill Wins 2007-08 NBA Sportsmanship Award].
• The ladies are looking for some top notch endorsements too [Payback time for Danica Patrick and women’s sports?].
• The 11th annual University of Kentucky Sports Marketing Academy is right around the corner. Too bad you can’t buy a ticket to it [Sports Marketing Academy Begins Second Decade].
• Taj Gibson stays, Davon Jefferson goes…to Arn Tellem…surprise…[Mixed News for USC Hoops Fans].
• Greece or United States? Kosta Koufos chooses red, white, and blue [Koufos to sign with agent, stay in draft].
• Okay forget about the individual announcements…here is your official 2008 Early Entry list. I hope the Miami Heat select Dnipro Maksym Vilkhovetskyi, who hails from the Ukraine. [2008 Official NBA Draft Early Entry List].

I am pretty much obligated to put the interview with Leigh Steinberg as the featured post of this past week. It was a great experience for me and hopefully a good read for all of you. Check it out by clicking on Featured, which is hanging around on the right sidebar.

Kevin Love, C, UCLA Fr.

Last year Kevin Love was the most dominant freshman in the NCAA not named Beasley. He led UCLA to the Final Four, only to lose to the team that should have won the national title.

He has what I like to call the "Tyler Hansbrough Factor." His game doesn't look pretty, but it works. Love also possesses the kind of long range shooting that non-European big men crave.

However, there are some things holding him back that might make the difference. The most glaring problem is that he doesn't really have a position. He is short  at 6-foot-10, which rules out playing center, and he is not quick or athletic enough to guard power forwards. Love also lacks the floor speed to fit in most transition offenses.

The verdict: Kevin Love has the potential to be a good player, however, don't expect the dominance he demonstrated in college.

OJ Mayo PG/SG Fr. USC

Now we come to one of the more controversial players in college last year. Many top colleges were recruiting Mayo before he made an out-of-nowhere call to USC.

Mayo was expected to bring USC basketball out of the shadow of cross-town rival, UCLA. Instead brought a first round loss in the tournament to Michael Beasley and Kansas State.

However, I think that Mayo suffers from reverse Ben Wallace syndrome. So many people feel he is overrated that he actually becomes underrated.

There are some aspects of his game that are vastly overlooked, such as his defense. During the game against Memphis on Dec. 4, Mayo was matched up against Derrick Rose, the man being projected by many as the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Mayo held Rose to nine points, a ridiculous number coming from a man who averaged well in the 20s during the tournament.

The verdict: I think Mayo has a very high ceiling. If he can keep his attitude in check he can be great.

Derrick Rose PG Fr. Memphis

Finally there is Derrick Rose. While heavily recruited, he did not come in with the kind of hype Love and Mayo got.

Rose was viewed by many as a pass first. Playing alongside Chris Douglas-Roberts, they were one of the greatest backcourt duos in NCAA history, bar none.

Rose also came through in big games. During the humiliation of the aforementioned Kevin Love and the UCLA Bruins, Rose scored 25 points and added four assists and nine rebounds on top of that.

In fact, Rose would have led Memphis straight to the title had it not been for Mario Chalmers hitting a shot that will be replayed on ESPN Classic for years to come.

The verdict: Rose is everything he is hyped to be, and perhaps more. However, I do not think he should be picked No. 1 over Beasley in the draft.

Now that the deadline for declaring for the NBA Draft has come and gone, its time to revisit the changing face of the Pac-10. I'll break down each team, looking at who declared, who's likely to return, the projected starting lineup (with key bench players), and finish with a revised rankings*. With that said, let's get started:

Arizona

Who Declared Early?: Jerryd Bayless, Chase Budinger

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody 

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Nic Wise	-
PG/SG	Brandon Jennings	Brandon Lavender
SF	Jamelle Horn	Fendi Onubon
PF	Jordan Hill	Emmanuel Negedu
C	Jeff Withey	-

What more can be said about Arizona than the above Projected Lineup? Although the Wildcats will have the benefit of returning proven players Nic Wise and Jordan Hill, they will need excellent play from Jennings along with a solid contribution from Withey to be contenders in the Pac-10, let alone the NCAA tournament. Again it looks like Lute Olson is going to face depth issues once again as neither Onubon, Negedu, or Lavender are proven commodities. Finally, I think Lute might be going a little crazy as some of his comments lately have been strange to say the least. It may be a long season for UA fans if Jennings doesn't live up to the hype.

ASU

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Ty Abbott	Derek Glasser
SG/SF	Rihards Kuksiks	Jamelle Mcmillan
SG/SF	James Harden	Jerren Shipp
PF	Jeff Pendergraph	?
C	Eric Boateng	-

Don't worry, the question marks are there for a reason as ASU has some young talent waiting in the wings. If either Kraidon Woods or the incoming Taylor Rohde can develop into go to role players then ASU will have depth to go along with the talent of their starters. Throw Herb Sendek into the mix and the Sun Devils field arguably the best team in the Pac-10 next year. They better make next season count though, Harden is a sure fire lottery pick and Pendergraph is out of eligibility after next season.

California

Who Declared Early?: Ryan Anderson

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Jerome Randle	-
SG	D.J. Seeley	Knezevic, Nikola
SG/SF	Patrick Christopher	-
SF/PF	Jamal Boykin	Harper Kamp
C	Jordan Wilkes	Max Zhang

There's a chance that Ryan Anderson comes back, but its a slim one at this point. Anderson is most likely a first round pick and its hard to say no to guaranteed money. That being said, the cupboard is hardly bare over at Berkeley. Randle, Christopher, and Boykin should all be reliable starters and may all develop into high quality players before the season starts. Mike Montgomery will have his work cut out for him, however, as Anderson's departure coupled with Hardin's loss of eligibility severely depletes the front court. Right now Cal is at the bottom or middle of thepack, it Wilkes or Zhang develops then they may find themselves at the top.

Oregon

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG/SG	Tajuan Porter	Kamyron Brown
SG	LeKendric Longmire	Matthew Humphrey
SF	Joevon Catron	-
SF	Churchill Odia	Drew Viney
C	Michael Dunigan	-

I wonder if any gambling websites will put out a line on how many months into the season it will take until Ernie Kent has a for sale sign put out in front of his house? As I mentioned before, Kent faced losing his job at the end of last season, but a late season sweep of the Arizona schools at home managed to just barely get them into the tournament. Its strange to think that a coach just a season removed from an elite 8 appearance could be on the hot seat, but such is the nature of competitive college sports. Old Ernie is going to have to do a lot with a little (seriously, this team is very lacking in size) and he will need Tajuan Porter to step up his game big time for there to be any hope of success this season. Also, don't let the fact that nobody left for the draft fool you.  Oregon lost three very talented seniors, and the departure of Malik Hairston and Maarty Leunen will be especially painful.

OSU

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Josh Tarver	Ricky Claitt
SG	Omari Johnson	Lathen Wallace
SG/SF	Seth Tarver	Eshaunte Jones
PF	Sean Carter	-
C	Roeland Schaftenaar	Calvin Hampton

I suppose Oregon state has some semblance of depth as all of the above players (save for the incoming Eshaunte Jones) saw some playing time last year, but its not worth much when more or less all of your players are bad or even awful. Maybe in another with another year or so the Beavers will become a decent team, but it is just not happening next season. On the plus side, if Obama gets elected then maybe the president will make the trip to Corvallis to catch a couple of games. Although, I have heard that worshipping pagan gods and sacrificing animals can really boost a teams record... (just kidding)

Stanford

Who Declared Early?: Brook and Robin Lopez

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Mitch Johnson	Drew Shiller
SG	Anthony Goods	Kenny Brown
SG/SF	Landry Fields	-
PF	Lawrence Hill	Josh Owens
PF	Miles Plumlee	Will Paul

Things were looking tough for Stanford next year. The team was looking at switching over to a guard oriented playing style as the Lopez twins both declared for the draft, and surprise surprise! Trent Johnson decided he was tired of being taken for granted and bolted for greener pastures at LSU. Luckily, things are not all doom and gloom on the farm as Stanford hired former Duke assistant Johnny Dawkins, who has just a teensy bit of experience in running a guard oriented attack. Lots of questions still remain though, and it looks like Stanford will not be challenging anyone for the Pac-10 title next season.

UCLA

Who Declared Early?: Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Luc-Richard Mbah A Moute, Josh Shipp

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Luc-Richard Mbah A Moute, Josh Shipp

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG/SG	Darren Collison	Malcolm Lee
PG/SG	Jrue Holiday	Michael Roll
SG/SF	Josh Shipp	Chace Stanback
PF	LRMAM	Drew Gordon
PF/C	Alfred Aboya	Keefe/Dragovic

Talent and depth has been the story of Ben Howland's career at UCLA, and next year won't be any different. In all fairness, next year's edition won't be quite as good as last year's team.  The difference may end up being quite marginal. Kevin Love's post presence will be missed, and there is no athletic finisher like Russell Westbrook in this group, but there is no doubt that this is an excellent group of players. Bruin fans should see little to no drop off in defensive efficiency.  It is really up to Howland to get his offense (which is still very efficient) over the hump so to speak. Next year could be a disappointing year in Westwood, obviously a slight lack of athleticism hurt UCLA in the end, but I sincerely doubt it. Short of Hell freezing over, UCLA will be in the race for the Pac-10 title all season long.

USC 

Who Declared Early?: O.J. Mayo, Davon Jefferson

Who do I think is Coming Back?: Nobody

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Angelo Johnson	Donte Smith
SG	Daniel Hackett	Dwight Lewis
SF	Demar Derozan	Leonard Washington
PF	Taj Gibson	Kasey Cunningham
C	Mamadou Diarra	Keith Wilkinson

Mayo was a one and doner from the start, but why did Jefferson have to be such a tease? At first Davon says he's coming back, but then suddenly he's declared and likely already signed with an agent. Oh well, I guess that ship has sailed. Luckily USC still returns stellar core players and adds enough talent to once again be near the top of the Pac-10. Hackett and Lewis are quality wings, and Taj Gibson should be able to play at his natural position next season. Add in the #1 SG recruit in Derozan, a former 5 star in Washington, top cali Juco PG Donte Smith, and both Cunningham and Diarra coming back from injuries, USC has qualiy talent and depth. That's a first for Coach Tim Floyd's tenure. But the real question is, can the team put it together on offense?

Washington

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Justin Dentmon	Venoy Overton
SG	Joel Smith	Scott Suggs
PF	Quincy Pondexter	Tyreese Breshers
PF	Jon Brockman	Artem Wallace
C	John Wolfinger	Matthew Bryan-Amaning

Next season could really be the season that Washington finally puts it all together. Getting quality minutes from Venoy Overton was a pleasant surprise, and although the loss of sharpshooter Ryan Appleby is a big blow the team will bring a fair amount of experience and talent to the table.  The Huskies are headed by bruising forward Jon Brockman. Its clear that Washington is falling just short of being a good team. They did beat UCLA at home last season. If they can get some quality production from their highly rated class last year (along with some solid playing time from another quality class this year) then Lorenzo Romar may be able to put the past two seasons behind him. Washington may be facing a lot of uncertainty going into the offseason.  At the very least its not a certainty that they will be bad.

WSU

Who Declared Early?: Nobody

Who do I think is Coming Back?: N/A

Projected Lineup:

Position	Player	Bench
PG	Taylor Rochestie	-
SG	Klay Thompson	-
SF	Daven Harmeling	Nikola Koprivica
PF	Caleb Forrest	-
C	Aron Baynes	-

The more I look closely at Washington St., the more I like what I see. Although they lose Cowgill, Weaver, and Low, the core returnees of Rochestie, Harmeling, and Baynes are all good (and in some aspects great) players already. Forrest has seen time throughout the year and played well on the court.  Incoming recruit Klay Thompson should help to shore up some of the offensive output lost with the graduation of Low.  The key issue facing the Cougars is a potential lack of depth. Bennett will be hard pressed to get at least one or two recruits ready for game time out of the incoming class. This will be no small feat.  It took 3 years to put together the WSU team of the last two years. However, if they can establish an eight man rotation the Cougars should field another solid team.

Summary**

As of right now it seems like UCLA, ASU, and USC will be the class of the Pac-10, but I wouldn't be so certain. Arizona, Cal, Washington, and Washington St. are all poised to make a run at the top should the right pieces fall into place. In fact, just a couple of seasons ago two teams picked to finish near the bottom of the Pac-10 ended up finishing #2 and #3 so anything can happen. But in all fairness it would be a near miracle if Oregon, Oregon St., or Stanford finished in the top 4 as each of those programs face major obstacles.

Revised Pac-10 Preseason Rankings
1.)	Arizona St.	6.)	California
2.)	UCLA	7.)	Washington
3.)	USC	8.)	Oregon
4.)	Washington St.	9.)	Stanford
5.)	Arizona	10.)	Oregon St.

Notes

- As of right now the Pac-10 is probably only sending four teams to the NCAA tournament, and it will be a battle between Washington St. and Arizona for that last spot.

- Like I said before, no team will go winless and no team will go undefeated in conference. There is no one team that will survive ASU/UCLA/USC/WSU, and there is no one team that will lose to Oregon/Stanford/OSU.

- Perhaps purely by team strength the LA road trip is the toughest, but Washington St. and a resurgent UW will make the Washington road trip the true test for a teams ability to win on the road.

-I doubt anyone will argue that the Pac-10 is the best or second best conference in the nation next year. 

* Projected rosters were assembled based on a number of dimensions; quality of the player, need to fill certain positions, playing time last year, among others. Once again my thanks to kenpom.com and si.cnn.com.

** You can read my original thoughts here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/16879-UCLA-vs-USC-for-Best-in-the-West-Pac-10-2008-09-Basketball-Preview-080408

Part 4 of this series on Pac-10 basketball will focus on the two "U" schools. We'll be looking at UCLA and USC. Both schools are coming off great seasons. So what's ahead for the Bruins and Trojans?

University of California - Los Angeles

For the third year in a row, Coach Ben Howland led the UCLA Bruins to the Final Four. That's an amazing feat in these days of collegiate basketball. Truly amazing. What's even more amazing is for many Bruin fans, that's not enough. That's right! Getting to the Final Four isn't enough. If UCLA doesn't win it all, the season is a disappointment to the hard core followers of Bruin basketball.

Next season will be one of change for Coach Howland, at least in terms of personnel. Let's begin with who will be gone.

No surprise about the departure of Kevin Love to the NBA. Love doesn't have anything left to prove at the college level. It's not likely that he will be an impact player as a rookie at the professional level, but barring injury, Love has a bright future playing for money.

No surprise about the departure of Lorenzo Mata-Real. The big guy is out of NCAA eligibility! That'll do it. Mata-Real developed into one of the premier defensive centers in the nation. Those skills will be missed by Coach Howland who believes winning begins with shut-down defense.

Another key player trying to move on to the NBA, and who likely will, is Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was awesome this past season. He may not have been the darling of the media and some fans, but his play made the difference for UCLA in many of their close wins. He has all the athletic skills to be playing pro basketball for many years.

Many are expecting that Darren Collison will forgo his senior season to move on to the NBA. That isn't a done deal. In fact, another season in Westwood under the tutelage of Coach Howland would go a long way to developing him into a player who will catch on in the NBA.

Oh. There's one other departure pending. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute seems to have figured that since so many of his teammates are ready for the NBA, he is, too. Oh my! Please don't sign with an agent Luc Richard. Another year of seasoning in Westwood would make the NBA a real possibility. This year? Not so much.

So is the Bruin personnel cupboard bare for the coming season?

Are you kidding?

Coach Howland has more raw talent coming to UCLA. He has not one but two premier high school guards coming in. The top rated shooting guard in the nation, Jrue Holiday, will probably have Bruin fans quickly forgetting about Russell Westbrook. Holiday is winner. Period. Reports are that he's very coachable as well. The other top rated guard is Malcolm Lee who has the skills to run Coach Howland's offense. About the only downside of this kid is that there's little chance he will stay in Westwood very long.

That should be enough, right? Wrong. Jerime Anderson will have UCLA fans cheering. He's a very smooth player that can fill it up from anywhere on the floor. A natural point guard, Anderson is comfortable and capable at either guard position.

The other notable commit is Drew Gordon, a natural power forward. Gordon has the size and hops to be an impact player for UCLA. He's got a nose for the ball when it comes to grabbing boards.

In short, the Bruins are once again the elite team in the Pac-10 going into the season. Sure, they aren't going to have much of the talent back that took them to the Final Four this past season. Have no fear Bruin Nation. Your team is still the class of the conference.

Worst case scenario for the Bruins is that they plummet to a second place conference finish. But don't count on that...

University of Southern California

Coach Tim Floyd had a lot of athletic talent on his squad this past season. They made it to the NCAA Tourney, but not for long. The Trojans were dispatched quite easily by Kansas State. That was that.

Chances are pretty good that most of the team will be back for another season of Pac-10 basketball. There weren't any seniors on the roster and though there are many who would love to be playing in the NBA next season, only OJ Mayo will make that leap. Will Mayo be missed? The answer to that question follows.

Coach Floyd convinced super high school player Demar DeRozan to come to USC. Since the kid is from Compton, CA, that wasn't a real hard sell. DeRozan is a player with incredible athletic skills. The only thing to criticize about him is his weight. He could use a little more muscle on his frame, but will come in time. Chances are, he will be the most exciting freshman in the Pac-10 next season.

So Coach Floyd still won't have a natural center on the team next season, but that won't matter. As long as Taj Gibson and Devon Jefferson return, the Trojans will have a front line that will be the best in the west. And with Daniel Hackett running the offense, USC fans have plenty to look forward to next season.

If things fall their way, it's possible that USC might be able to steal the conference championship away from UCLA next year. They sure look like one of the top three teams, to be sure.

The final segment of this series will cover the end of the alphabet in the Pac-10, Washington and Washington State.

Pre-NBA draft declaration deadline edition* 

First, a look at the year that was**:

Overall Record: 207-133 (60.9%)  Against D1: 95-24 (79.8%)        

Tournament Breakdown
Round	64	32	16	8	4
# of Teams	6	3	3	1	1

Conference Rankings:   RPI (2)   Pomeroy Rank (2)   Sagarin Rank (1) 

08-09 Preview for all Ten Teams:

Arizona [07-08: 7th, 18-14 (8-10)]

Key Returners: Jordan Hill (62.0% eFG%, 7.9 RPG, .8 APG), Nic Wise (55.7 eFG%, 2.3 RG, 4.4 APG)

Key Losses:  Jerryd Bayless (53.6% eFG%, 2.7 RPG, 4.0 APG), Chase Budinger (52.6 eFG%, 5.4 RPG, 2.5 APG), Jawann McClellan (49.8 eFG%, 3.6 RPG, 2.7 APG).

Key Additions: Brandon Jennings (Rivals: 5/5, #3 PG, #8 overall), Jeff Withey (Rivals: 4/5, #9 Center, #39 overall)

Arizona's biggest challenge will be replacing Jerryd Bayless, who recently announced his intention to enter the draft. Bayless led all scorers with 19.7 PPG and was able to routinely create opportunities for scoring on the perimeter, especially for Budinger, by collapsing defenses through drives into the paint. I's difficult to see who will replace Bayless at the 2 as there is not a proven player on UA's roster who fits that position. Heralded recruit Brandon Jennings has shown he can be a big time scorer, but at 6 ft 170 lbs he simply lacks the size to play shooting guard at the college level. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the battle for point between Wise and Jennings shakes out. 

Of key importance for Arizona's success will be whether or not Chase Budinger stays and continues to develop.  Should Budinger stay he will be expected to be Arizona's key playmaker. If he can consistently shoot the three and get inside for offensive rebounds, and assuming Jordan Hill continues to play at a high level, then Arizona's offense will be very difficult to stop.

After a tough season the Wildcats have a lot to look forward to. Fans should welcome the return of Lute Olson and his up tempo offense from O'neil's set plays, and although Jennings can't replace Bayless, any team benefits from depth at the point guard position. As things stand Arizona should field an elite team next season, and should definitely make an improvement over this year's seventh place finish. 

Arizona State [07-08: T-5th, 21-13 (9-9)] 

Key Returners: James Harden (58.6 eFG%, 5.2 RPG, 3.2 APG), Jeff Pendergraph (59.3 eFG%, 6.4 RPG, .9 APG), Ty Abbott (52.4 eFG%, 3.6 RPG, 1.5 APG)

Key Losses: None, especially since Harden is not expected to declare for the draft.

Key Additions: Hard to say. I don't think anyone expected Abbott or Kuksiks to come out and contribute so quickly, so who knows how Sendek's next batch of recruits will pan out.

After a difficult 06-07 campaign in which the Sun Devils finished last in conference, Herb Sendek engineered an incredible turnaround to make ASU a serious threat in the loaded Pac 10. Much of the credit has to go to James Harden, perhaps the most overlooked member of this year's freshman class. Harden led all players at 17.8 PPG and did so with excellent efficiency. Harden also contributed significantly to rebounding and has a highly developed game. With Abbott, Kuksiks, and Glasser backing him up, Arizona St. is very well rounded in the back court.

The front court, however, is another issue. While Pendergraph is a solid (if unspectacular) PF/C, Eric Boateng must become a better overall player if ASU expects to compete on a high level. But even if Boateng becomes a significantly better player, Sendek still faces the issue of overall lack of depth at the position. Two incoming recruits(at 6'7'' and 6'8'') may be able to contribute, however, the team may have to resort to playing two small forwards (such as Harden and Kuksiks) and hope to get better production out of Kuksiks on the boards. This may be unreasonable to expect, but only the future can tell.

If Pendergraph and Boateng can endure heavy minutes and avoid foul trouble then the front court issue may be moot, but more likely than not, the lack of size will prove fatal in at least a couple of games. Expectations are high in Tempe for a team that should return every player that counts, but it still may be too soon to expect a Pac 10 title. Regardless, ASU will definitely be a contender.

California [07-08: 9th, 17-16 (6-12)]

Key Returners: Patrick Christopher (51.1 eFG%, 3.6 RPG, 2.0 APG), Jamal Boykin (52.8 eFG%, 3.8 RPG, 1.2 APG).

Key Losses: Ryan Anderson (55.9 eFG%, 9.9 RPG, 1.4 APG), Devon Hardin (55.4 eFG%, 7.4 RPG, .7 APG). 

Key Additions: D.J. Seeley (Rivals: 4/5, #10 SG, #53 overall)

Save for one good season in 05-06, Berkley fans have had to endure one mediocre season after another over the last 5 years under Ben Braun. New head coach Mike Montgomery, who led Stanford to the NCAA tournament 12 times in his 18 year career, should be able to turn the program around, but how quickly depends on star player Ryan Anderson. Should Anderson return Montgomery may have Cal back in the NCAA tournament by the end of next season. Should the sophomore choose the draft, however, Montgomery will have a difficult project ahead of him. 

California returns a solid back court with a lot of potential. Patrick Christopher and Jerome Randle should have no trouble handling the point, while Jamal Boykin and Harper Kamp will play swing. However, like ASU, Cal must deal with a number of question marks in their front court. With senior Devon Hardin out the door, and Anderson declaring for the draft, someone on the roster will need to step up. Seven footer Jordan Wilkes saw limited playing time last year and did little to justify more time on the court, his best game was a 6 point, 6 rebound outing against the super power Nevada. Freshman import "Max" Zhang, coming in at a towering 7'2'', saw no playing time at all. Getting those two even up to role player status will do Cal a world of good.

Without Ryan Anderson Cal loses its entire front court, and it will have to look to a pair of unproven bench warmers to fill in the gaps. With Anderson the Golden Bears may be able to build a solid game in the post and will likely have another top tier offensive attack. Without him, Cal has many more obstacles to overcome. Only time can really tell what the near future holds for Berkeley Basketball, but at least there is a light at the end of the tunnel. 

Oregon [07-08: T-5th, 18-14 (9-9)]

Key Returners: Tajuan Porter (49.2 eFG%, 2.3 RPG, 2.4 APG), Joevan Catron (52.8 eFG%, 5.7 RPG, 2.2 APG).

Key Losses: Maarty Leunen (66.4 eFG%, 9.2 RPG, 2.8 APG), Malik Hairston (60.9% eFG%, 4.8 RPG, 2.1 APG), Bryce Taylor (54.6 eFG%, 3.8 RPG, 1.4 APG)

Key Additions: Michael Dunigan (Rivals: 4/5, #8 C, #32 overall)

Ernie Kent was on the short list to be fired, after Ben Braun and Jay John, before Oregon pulled off a bit of a late season surge to fight their way into the NCAA tournament. Its obvious why Kent may have been sent packing; after returning four of five starters from a squad that advanced to the elite eight Oregon failed to make a significant impact in the Pac-10. Ernie may be safe for now, but he better enjoy his summer break as he'll enter next year on the hot seat again.

As can be seen from the stat line above, Maarty Leunen may be the best player no one has ever heard of. He was the team's most efficient scorer with an impressive 66.4 effective field goal percentage, and somehow led the team in both rebounds and steals. Leunen also clocked in at second in points per game and assists. Oregon will also have to replace the athletic Malik Hairston, the teams leading scorer. Oregon must also find an answer for the loss of PG Aaron Brooks, the only player who didn't return from that elite 8 squad. For Oregon to be successful Tajuan Porter must step and fill that point guard role, along with improving his mediocre 49.2 eFG%. Joevan Catron in turn will be expected to anchor Oregon's interior, despite coming in at only 6'6''.

Throughout the season I heard many comments with regard to Oregon's offense, that they were missing shots they made last year, that they weren't as explosive, blah blah blah. In truth Oregon had an offense comparable to those of the best teams in the country, ranking #6 in Division 1 according to stats guru Ken Pomeroy. It was their defense that stunk. If Ernie Kent can somehow equal that offensive output next year and improve their D, Oregon would be an elite team. However, if Kent couldn't do it with last year's experienced lineup then its doubtful he will be able to do it with an almost entirely new starting 5. Oregon is looking at a tough year ahead, and probably looking at a new coach after next season.

Oregon St. [07-08: 10th, 6-25 (0-18)] 

Key Returners: Roeland Schaftenaar (48.4 eFG%, 4.1 RPG, .6 APG)

Key Losses: I would say Marcel Jones, but he was pretty bad. I would also say CJ Giles, but he was dismissed earlier in the year. 

Key Additions: Eshaunte Jones (Rivals: 3/5, #31 SG, #121 Overall) has a legitimate shot at becoming OSU's best palyer.

The future is bleak for Oregon St. fans. After a season in which the team saw its head coach get fired, had one of its better players dismissed (C.J. Giles), and experienced the worst Pac 10 record in history there is still not much to look forward to.  New Coach Craig Robinson was able to engineer a turnaround at Brown in his two years there, but the Pac 10 is about as far removed as you can get from the Ivy League.

OSU suffers from an overall lack of talent. In fact, no Beaver ranks in the top 500 players in the country in eFG%. The 6'11'' Roeland Schaftenaar, who averaged about 19.2 minutes per game, actually leads all players in effective shooting percentage. No immediate solutions are incoming either, as 3 star Eshaunte Jones is the best in the two man class. It will be very difficult to effectively execute even Robinson's preferred Princeton offense with the current crop of players.

Who knows, maybe Oregon St. will be this year's Washington St., but I honestly doubt it. It is still probable that even moderate success is at least two years away, but at least OSU has begun the process of rebuilding. Besides, the Beavers cannot possibly be any worse than they were this year.

Stanford [07-08: 2nd, 28-8 (13-5)]

Key Returners: Mitch Johnson (50.8 eFG%, 4.3 RPG, 5.2 APG), Lawrence Hill (47.1 eFG%, 4.8 RPG, 1.1 APG).

Key Losses: Brook Lopez (46.8 eFG%, 8.2 RPG, 1.4 APG), Robin Lopez (53.6 eFG%, 5.7 RPG, .6 APG), Taj Finger (55.9 eFG%, 4.4 RPG, .5 APG).

Key Additions: Jeremy Green (Rivals: 4/5, #17 SG, #75 overall)

Believe it or not, if Stanford wants to win games next year they will need to rely on their guards. Mitch Johnson, Anthony Goods, and Kenny Brown will all have to step up in a big way as the Cardinal's front court will be severely depleted with the loss of the Lopez twins to the draft and senior Taj Finger to graduation. In other words, Stanford may be in for a long season.

Lawrence Hill will in all likelihood be their best player in the post next year and will need to be more aggressive in rebounding and scoring to make up for the loss of Stanford's star players. In addition, 6'7'' Landry Fields may have to make the transition to forward as 6'8'' freshman Josh Owens saw few minutes while 6'9'' sophomore Will Paul saw no playing time whatsoever. Even if coach Trent Johnson sees significant improvement in Lawrence Hill's game its clear that post play will be a downgrade over this past season. On the bright side, if Mitch Johnson can continue to dish the ball into the post with the same effectiveness he had last year, then at least play in the paint won't be a weakness.

There are few elite programs that are able to avoid the dreaded rebuilding year, and Stanford just is not one of them. Trent Johnson has done an admirable job of continuing the program's success after the departure of former coach Mike Montgomery, but there is no dancing around the fact that the 08-09 Stanford team just is not as talented as recent Cardinal teams. Barring a major surprise, the farm will field an average to good team that will fight it out in the middle of the Pac 10. For the sake of Trent Johnson, let us hope that Montgomery doesn't have to much success in his first year at Berkeley. 

UCLA [07-08: 1st, 35-4 (16-2)]

Key Returners so far: Kevin Love (60.1 eFG%, 10.6 RPG, 1.9 APG), Darren Collison (57.2 eFG%, 2.6 RPG, 3.8 APG), Russell Westbrook (49.5 eFG%, 3.9 RPG, 4.3 APG)

Key Losses: Lorenzo Mata-Real (49.5 eFG%, 3.5 RPG, .2 APG)

Key Additions: Jrue Holiday (Rivals: 5/5, #1 PG, #3 Overall), Drew Gordon (Rivals 4/5, #16 PF, #49 Overall)

What more can be said about UCLA? The Bruins are arguably the most successful basketball program of all time and are beginning to glimpse the glory days of John Wooden under the direction of coach Ben Howland. It is fair to say that no other program, except perhaps Florida, has experienced the same amount of success year in and year out as UCLA over the last 3 years.  But with the draft looming large it is hard to say if the team will continue to achieve at the same level going into 2008-09.

There is no doubt that UCLA will field the deepest and most talented team in the conference should everyone return, but what if Love, Collison, and Westbrook declare for the draft as expected? Luckily for fans of the true blue and gold, the team has quality players waiting in the wings. There is no question that UCLA will not be able to completely replace Love's production, but a rotation of  Mbah-a-Moute, Aboya, Keefe, Dragovic, and the incoming Drew Gordon will go a long way in wearing down opposing post players. In addition, Jrue Holiday should be able to replace Collison or Westbrook without too much drop off in athleticism or talent. The team will also welcome the return of guard Michael Roll, who has sat out most of the season due to injury.

At least until April 26, UCLA is the best team in the Pac 10. Realistically, however, they face losing their three best players to the draft and will have a tough battle to fight in conference. Regardless of how much talent UCLA loses, expect them to be favorites for the Pac 10 title next year through sheer depth and quality coaching.

USC [07-08: T-3rd, 21-12 (11-7)]

Key Returners so far: O.J. Mayo (52.4 eFG%, 4.5 RPG, 3.3 APG), Davon Jefferson (58.3 eFG%, 6.3 RPG, .8 APG), Taj Gibson (58.0 eFG%, 7.8 RPG, 1.3 APG).

Key Losses: None, USC does not have a single senior or player who has declared... yet

Key Additions: Demar Derozan (Rivals: 5/5, #1 SG, #2 Overall), Leonard Washington (Rivals: 3/5, SF)

If, and that's a huge IF, USC returns all of their players, they have the makings of a legitimate national championship contender. O.J. Mayo would be leading a squad that would start 5 players as talented and athletic as any other team in the country. But in order to win, USC's players (especially Jefferson) must develop the skillset to take full advantage of that raw talent.

The Trojans were wildly inconsistent all year. Just three games after holding both Kansas and Memphis to their season lows in regulation play, USC fell to conference foe California 92-82 . Moreover, USC had an excellent defense but could never put plays together consistently on offense. The guards often struggled to get the ball to Gibson in the post and were too hesitant to drive inside and kick it out. Hopefully incoming recruit Demar Derozan can help flesh out this area of SC's game. Also, keep an eye on whether Floyd succeeds or not in developing Leonard Washington. The former 5-star forward has experienced a rapid fall from grace thanks to academic and discipline problems, but Tim Floyd has developed other former delinquent players, including current star Davon Jefferson and the troubled Loderick Stewart.

USC heads into next season just like they came into last season, with a great deal of uncertainty. As long as two of the big three return the Trojans will be a legitimate player in the Pac 10, but if all three go Tim Floyd could be facing a tough season in the shadow of the omnipresent football program. 

Washington [07-08: 8th, 16-17 (7-11)]

Key Returners: Jon Brockman (53.6 eFG%, 11.6 RPG, 1.1 APG), Quincy Pondexter (48.1 eFG%, 4.8 RPG, 1.9 APG).

Key Losses: Ryan Appleby (54.9 eFG%, 1.2 RPG, 1.4 APG)

Key Additions: Tyreese Breshers (Rivals: 4/5, #21 PF, #66 Overall), Isaiah Thomas (Rivals: 4/5, #15 PG, #89 Overall)

It has been a strange couple of years for Washington. Just two years ago the Huskies were competing with UCLA for the Pac 10 championship. That same year Washington advanced to the Sweet 16 (falling in overtime to UConn), and brought in a heralded recruiting class headed by top center Spencer Hawes. Despite this, Washington finished 19-13 with an 8-10 mark in conference.

Things only got worse in 2008 even though Lorenzo Romar brought in another quality recruiting class. I know next to nothing about recruiting high school prospects, but it makes one wonder about the ability of the Huskies' staff to correctly scout talent. Perhaps it is still premature to completely judge these classes, if all this potential talent comes together next season then Washington will be a force to be reckoned with. However, one thing is certain, someone will have to step up and take over Appleby's role as a perimeter shooter, otherwise the team is looking at the bottom of the Pac 10 once again.

Having Tyreese Breshers or Isaiah Thomas come in and produce as freshmen would go along way in validating Romar's recruiting abilities. Washington will wtill get quality play out of big man Jon Brockman, but someone else on the roster needs to show they are a star player. If Washington fails to put together a quality season soon, then recruiting will be the least of the Huskies' problems.

Washington St. [07-08: T-3rd, 26-9 (11-7)]

Key Returners: Taylor Rochestie (56.8 eFG%, 3.2 RPG, 4.7 APG), Aron Baynes (60.0 eFG%, 6.0 RPG, .3 APG), Daven Harmeling (55.0 eFG%, 2.2 RPG, .8 APG).

Key Losses: Kyle Weaver (50.3 eFG%, 5.3 RPG, 4.3 APG), Derrick Low (55.2 eFG%, 1.8 RPG, 1.6 APG), Robbie Cowgill (54.1 eFG%, 5.1 RPG, .7 APG).

Key Additions: Michael Harthun (Rivals: 3/5, #29 SG, #115 Overall)

Washington St. is a bizarre team to say the least. Somehow they developed into a top-ten team without a single heralded recruit or even a particularly well known coach. No offense to Dick Bennett, he did lead 8 seed Wisconsin to the final four in 2000 after all, but nobody could have expected what has happened in WSU Basketball over the last two years.

But can this trend possibly continue? Current coach Tony Bennett returns a solid core of starters; Taylor Rochestie is a deceptively athletic guard who can shoot from the perimeter and create his own shot. In addition, Aron Baynes uses his body to create space in the post better than just about every other center in college basketball. Rounding out the veteran trio is sharpshooting forward Daven Harmeling.  Still, coach Bennett faces the sizeable challenge of replacing the lost offensive production from Weaver, Low, and Cowgill in a system that emphasizes defense and slow tempo. There is no real telling who will replace these players, but then again, there was no real telling that the Cougars were going to be this good in the first place.

Next year will be a pivotal year for Washington St. If Bennett can continue to win with under-recruited talent he will certainly go down as one of the best at developing players in the NCAA despite his young age. Additionally Bennett could establish WSU as a long-term Pac-10 power. However, if they return to mediocrity then the past two seasons will likely be viewed as a statistical anomaly, and Bennett will not have the the number of high quality coaching job offers available. Here's to hoping that he doesn't become a victim of his own success.

Pre-Declaration Pre-Season Pre-dictions (Get it?): 

1.)	UCLA	6.)	Oregon
2.)	Arizona St.	7.)	Washington
3.)	USC	8.)	California
4.)	Arizona	9.)	Stanford
5.)	Washington St.	10.)	Oregon St.

 
Final Thoughts***

- Simply put, the Pac-10 will not be as good top to bottom next season as they were last season 

- The Pac-10 will send no more than five teams to next year's NCAA tournament

- No team will finish conference play undefeated, no team will finish without a win in conference 

* No attempt at predicting who may or may not enter the draft were made. All players who have declared, whether they signed with an agent or not, are assumed to be gone from school.

** All statistics taken from kenpom.com and sportsillustrated.cnn.com

*** I will do a short update after the NBA draft declaration deadline