Western Michigan Football

Here we are college football fans. It's the beginning of June leaving us with just over three months until the start of the 2009 season.

For Wolverine fans the season won't begin until September 5...a date Wolverines everywhere will go into with a hint of excitement and anxiety.

But why the anxiety?

How about the 3-9 record in 2008 or the fact that Michigan hasn't won it's home opener since 2006.

What doesn't help the Wolverines is that they play 2008 MAC runner-up Western Michigan to start the season. Considering Michigan lost to lower tier MAC team Toledo last year why wouldn't Wolverine-nation be a little concerned?

But last year was last year and the Wolverines will start the '09 season on a clean slate, starting with Western.

In 2008, the Bronco's finished its season with a 9-4 record after suffering a 38-14 loss to Rice in the Texas Bowl.

But will the Bronco's be stronger in '09?

The good news for Western is that they return senior quarterback and former MAC freshman player of the year Tim Hiller.

The 6'5" 225 lb field-general is the key returner for the Bronco's offense as Hiller threw 339 completions on 522 attempts (65 percent) for 3,725 yards and 36 touchdown passes to only 10 interceptions in '09.

Also returning for the Bronco offense is the team's leading rusher Brandon West. West led the team in rushing attempts (204), rush yards (1,026), longest rush (51), yards per carry (5.0 ypc/ min. 50 rushes), and rush touchdowns (8).

However, Western loses its best receiver going into '09. Jamarko Simmons was the team's leading receiver, accounting for about one-third of the teams receiving yardage. Simmons ended his final season with 1,276 yards on 104 receptions and 7 touchdowns.

The loss of Simmons will most likely be a big enough hit for the Bronco's as they start the '09 season in the "Big House", but it doesn't stop there.

The Bronco's will start '09 without three of their top four receiver's from last season. Now missing are the previously mentioned Simmons, as well as the No. 2 leading receiver Schneider Julian (59 rec/ 712 yards/ 6 TD's), and the fourth leading pass catcher Brandon Ledbetter the tight end (45 rec/ 464 yards/ 6 TD's).

Is it a consolation to say the fifth leading receiver returns? Though that receiver is the running back.

The only returning weapon at receiver for the Bronco's is junior to be Juan Nunez. Nunez was third on the team for receiving yards (701) and receptions (57), and was tied for first in receiving touchdowns (7).

As seen before the Bronco's will lose their top tight end Brandon Ledbetter weakening them at that position.

The offensive line for Western will be their strength early on as all their starters return with numerous reserves also holding starting experience. Western's offensive line enters the 2009 season ranked 40th nationally (out of 120 teams) in combined starts with 71 total.

Defensively there is only one word to describe Western Michigan's problem and that is...OUCH!

Going into the season the Bronco's will have to replace all but two(yeah TWO) starters.

The only returners will be senior's to be NG Cody Cielenski and SLB Austin Pritchard.

Replacing those nine guys won't be easy, especially the back four in the secondary which was full of All-MAC caliber players.

Seeing these kinds of losses on a defense is devastating no matter who you are. Losing all these players and then starting your season against Michigan is only making matters worse.

Needless to say the Western Michigan defensive coordinator will have his work cut out for him.

On special teams WMU will return all their kicking specialist.

Matchups to watch...

Tate Forcier vs the inexperienced WMU secondary:

The highly anticipated debut of the 2009 Wolverines will likely start out with freshman quarterback Tate Forcier at the helms of the Michigan offense. Out of high school Tate was rated as the most accurate quarterback in the nation and through the spring the young Forcier has shown on numerous occasions as to how he got that ranking.

With four new faces in the WMU secondary Tate should have a little bit easier time getting settled into his new role. Even in his freshman debut a good day should be expected.

Offensive lines vs defensive lines:

Michigan will enter the 2009 season returning all starters on the offensive line as well as all the majority of their three deep returns on what could be the deepest and possibly one of the best offensive lines in the Big 10.

Michigan's offensive line enters 2009 ranked 35th as a unit in combined starts with 76 total.

Those 76 combined starts going into 2009 are a lot better than last years offensive line, which went into game one with 13 starts combined...and all that was from Steve Schilling the sophomore lineman who started all 13 games as a freshman in 2007.

WMU on the other hand returns only two members of its front seven from 2008. This will or should bode well for the Wolverine offense as experience is clearly in their favor. Michigan should dominate the WMU d-line early and look for that to continue throughout the game.

Michigan's defensive line vs WMU offensive line is equally interesting.

Michigan comes in with two returning starters on the defensive line but have major lack of depth in the middle of the line. However, the two returners are DT Mike Martin(So.) and DE Brandon Graham (Sr.).

Graham is an All-American candidate while the young Martin is an All-Big 10 candidate after what can be said as the best season by a freshman defensive tackle for Michigan in the past few decades.

WMU returns four of five starters and are very seasoned up front. While they will have their hands full with Martin and Graham the other Michigan defenders will have to step up big to get the pressure of the duo if they want to get any pressure on Hiller.

Michigan running backs vs WMU linebackers:

Michigan's greatest strength next season will be their running back unit which will be the deepest and most talented in the Big 10 conference. Returning are senior backs Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown, sophomore Mike Shaw, red-shirt freshmen Mike Cox, and freshman Teric Jones, Fitzgerald Toussaint (maybe?), and of course Vincent Smith.

On the other side of the ball WMU will be missing two of three starters in the linebacker unit which equates to disaster vs a running back unit like Michigan's.

If say Michigan were to run for 200+ yards don't be surprised.

Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not. Just saying don't be surprised.

What to expect:

Going into this game many fans across the country will be skeptic of Michigan as they should be. Anything can happen as Michigan has proved time and time again.

Western does still have a chance at victory, however, if Michigan is anywhere close to what is to be expected then they should come out with a victory.

Don't read this the wrong way though because Michigan will make their share of mistakes in game one, especially with freshman at every other position.

Come September 5 you will see a new Michigan team come out of that tunnel. It won't be a BCS team, not yet, but it will be a team on a mission. It will be a team that competes and a team that WILL win.

Until then, how many days until the season starts...?

The Rice Owls have the home field advantage when they play the Western Michigan Broncos for the first time ever in the 2008 Texas Bowl.

This will be the second straight bowl appearance for the Broncos, but just the fourth in the team’s school history. Unfortunately, all three of the Broncos’ previous bowl games ended in a loss, including last year in the International Bowl, as WMU lost to Cincinnati in a well-fought battle by a score of 27-24.

The Owls are playing in their ninth bowl in school history, but just their second since 1961. Rice won its first four bowl games, but the team has not won since, losing its last four postseason games, including the 2006 New Orleans Bowl, where Rice was crushed by Troy by a score of 41-17.

5dimes.com oddsmakers currently have the Rice Owls posted as three-point betting odds favorites against the Western Michigan Broncos in this year's Texas Bowl, with the game's over/under sitting at 73 total points.

Click Here for Western Michigan vs. Rice Betting Picks
Visit Touthouse.com for more college bowl game predictions

Here are some betting trends to consider for the Texas Bowl.

Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Broncos are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Click Here for Current Texas Bowl Betting Odds

I can feel us getting closer to New Year's Day as the quality of teams we are watching keeps getting better and better.

The contenders from the major conferences are starting to take center stage and there is a lot more on the line than just pride, there is conference honor as well.

While I am enjoying participating with the other Bleacher Report Writers in sharing our picks and coverage, I near the end of the line as after my Texas Bowl write up I only have one more game, The Orange Bowl. I certainly hope we have laid the ground work for a tradition we keep going for many years.

As for The College Football Place, Jordan is making his picks as am I and as has been the case all season, when we agree there isn't much of a better play out there as Northwestern covers easily when we both were all over them. I don't keep track of these things but the regulars point this trend out often and they probably know the percentages better than I do.

We've been chatting it up the past few days and the forum has been active as ever and we're finishing the season on a high note, which is fitting for the season we've had. The growth and development of the site has far exceeded our wildest imagination.

In any event, let's get on with today's picks.

The Texas Bowl: Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX

Rice (9-3) vs. Western Michigan (9-3)

Tuesday Dec. 30, 2008, 8 p.m. EST; The Line: Western Michigan +3

Overview

Here is another bowl game where we talk about two prolific passing offenses and two defenses which hang on for dear life in hopes their offense squeezes out an extra score or two.

When we look at Rice's schedule their losses came to Tulsa, Texas, and Vanderbilt, all bowl teams. While I had Rice in my preseason "teams that don't stink anymore" list, I didn't even expect them to put 9 wins up. While I would guess their goal would have been a bowl, now they have double digits in the win column in their sights for the first time since the 1940s.

Going to a bowl is nothing new to the Western Michigan Broncos, winning one would be. While the Western Michigan offense is one dimensional, they have proved to be effective. If the Broncos are going to snag their first bowl win, it is going to have to be in their opponents backyard.

Some Stats

Western Michigan

Offensive Averages

Points 29.8 (37th/4th)

Overall Yds 422.7 (24th/3rd)

Passing Yds 301.2 (10th/1st)

Rushing Yds 121.5 (93rd/11th)

Defensive Averages

Points 23.8 (52nd/5th)

Overall Yds 390.3 (84th/7th)

Passing Yds 249.4 (97th/11th)

Rushing Yds 140.9 (62nd/3rd)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

Rice

Offensive Averages

Points 41.6 (8th/2nd)

Overall Yds 472.3 (10th/3rd)

Passing Yds 327.8 (5th/2nd)

Rushing Yds 144.4 (62nd/7th)

Defensive Averages

Points 34.9 (108th/10th)

Overall Yds 466.8 (115th/10th)

Passing Yds 273.8 (113th/12th)

Rushing Yds 192.9 (103rd/9th)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

*from statsheet.com

Rice has the better offense and Western Michigan has the better defense. The difference in the offense appears to be that Rice can run the ball while WMU hasn't gotten anything done on the ground this year.

Defensively, Rice doesn't do anything well at all while Western Michigan can show life from time to time. While it appears that neither team will be doing much stopping of the other, if there will be any stopping it will probably come from the Bronco defense.

The Trends

ATS Trends

Rice

Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Owls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Owls are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on grass. Owls are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Owls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. *From covers.com

The Picks

While I think offense is important I think some offenses are clearly better than others, I think playing against a poor defense can make an offense even better. I think playing against the Rice defense will make up more than the slight differential between the two offenses and give Western Michigan a distinct advantage. I like Western Michigan to win and I'll gladly take whatever points they are willing to give me.

Bleacher Creature Picks

Rice: Trey Bradley, Michael Cline, Lisa Horne, Brian Scott, and Justin Goar

Western Michigan: David Wunderlich and GeorgiaDawg

MITCH'S PICK: WESTERN MICHIGAN +3

See the rest of Mitch's Dec. 30 college football bowl picks against the spread.

Western Michigan brings a team to Lincoln this week that has experience and has had some success in road games against BCS conference schools in recent years.  They have played Virginia, Florida State, Iowa, and West Virginia, and other than the blowout loss to West Virginia last year, each of these games was competitive, with Western Michigan beating Virginia and Iowa.

With this being Bo Pelini's first game back as Nebraska's permanent head coach, I expect an energized and loud atmosphere in Memorial Stadium.  It will probably be louder and unlike anything the Broncos have encountered in some of their other road trips.

Offensively, the Broncos come in with an offense capable of making some plays.  The plays they do make will be made through the air with QB Tim Hiller and WR Jamarko Simmons.

I expect the Huskers' D to bring the heat in multiple blitz packages and be aggressive in attacking the Broncos offense.  This will create havoc at times for the Broncos, but I expect a couple of coverage breakdowns from the Huskers' D, and the Broncos will capitalize with TD passes. 

Keep in mind, though: As productive as Hiller has been throwing the ball, he has quite often thrown the ball to the wrong team.  I do expect a couple of mistakes from Hiller due to the environment and the different defensive blitz packages and schemes Bo Pelini will throw at the Broncos offense.

I don't expect to see much in the way of Western Michigan trying to establish a ground game this week.  They are replacing two offensive linemen and will be facing a defensive line that has all four starters back.  When they do run, it will be "token" attempts to try to back the Huskers defenders off and keep Bo Pelini from attacking the offensive line with multiple blitz packages on every play.

I expect the Nebraska offense to turn to the "old school" days of good old Nebraska smashmouth football behind a very solid and deep offensive line.  Running behind the big guys up front will be possibly the deepest running back corps in the Big 12 in Marlon Lucky, Roy Helu, and Quentin Castille. 

Nebraska's offense will be going against a defense that is very experienced and talented.  The Broncos return 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit, and they will have to play well to keep the Broncos close in this game.

Although they return many players, the Broncos did appear to be vulnerable against some good running teams.  I expect Nebraska to employ some old fashioned zone blocking schemes with the running backs looking to run between the tackles.

Nebraska will have success running the ball, which will open up the passing game to Nate Swift, Todd Peterson, and Niles Paul.  Also, look for Nebraska to try to establish a downfield pass catching threat at tight end with Mike McNeil.  I look for Joe Ganz to try at least twice to hit McNeil down the seam of the defense with big plays.

I expect some uncomfortable moments for Nebraska fans, but in the end my pick is....

Nebraska 34, Western Michigan 24