TCU Football

Two of the top teams in the Big 12 will square off in Fort Worth, Texas on Saturday when the TCU Horned Frogs host the Kansas State Wildcats. The Horned Frogs have lost the last two meetings with the Wildcats, who are riding a five-game winning streak and have covered the spread in their last six games since starting the season 0-2 versus the line.

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 52.0-36.0 Horned Frogs

Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread

Kansas State has been tremendous as a road underdog over the past few years, going 13-1 against the spread in its last 14 games under that scenario. In addition, the Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in their past 21 road games against Big 12 opponents, which is a testament to head coach Bill Snyder and how he approaches conference games.

Snyder’s team still has a shot at making the four-team playoff, but this is a must-win game with TCU ranked higher. The Big 12 as a conference does not have one team among the top four and will count on other schools ranked higher than its best to fall. All Kansas State can do is keep winning and hope everything falls into place at the end.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

It may not have been a pretty win for the Horned Frogs, but beating West Virginia 31-30 on the road last week remains an important victory at this point of the season. TCU did not cover the spread against the Mountaineers as 3.5-point road favorites. However, that was the team’s first non-cover of the year after starting out 7-0 ATS.

The Horned Frogs even managed to cover in their lone loss of the season, staying within a touchdown of Baylor in a 61-58 setback nearly a month ago. While TCU has lost the last two meetings with the Wildcats, last year’s meeting was extremely close. The Horned Frogs lost 33-31 on a Kansas State field goal with three seconds left but still covered as 12-point road underdogs.

Smart Pick

It’s hard to go against Snyder’s team in this spot as a tough road dog, but the Wildcats have played only two games away from home this year, winning both of them by a combined five points. The last one came at Oklahoma three weeks ago and resulted in a 31-30 upset victory as seven-point underdogs.

This is a slightly smaller spread for Kansas State but arguably a better opponent, as TCU also beat the Sooners earlier this season 37-33 as a 3.5-point home dog. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home favorites and 4-0 versus the line in their past four home games against conference opponents. They will use home field to their advantage here with a win and cover.

Betting Trends

• Kansas State is 5-0 SU in its last five games
• TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

It wasn't just fans in Morgantown who had their hearts broken by Jaden Oberkrom's 37-yard game-winning field goal that sent No. 7 TCU away with a walk-off victory over No. 20 West Virginia.

The Deep South wasn't too thrilled with it, either.

The Horned Frogs' 31-30 win creates a two-team dash to the finish line of the Big 12 race between them and the Kansas State Wildcats. Bill Snyder's group, the only undefeated team left in league play, makes a trip to Fort Worth next Saturday. ESPN shared Oberkrom's game-winning field goal via Twitter: 

IT'S GOOD! Jaden Oberkrom makes the 37-yd FG to give No. 7 TCU a walk-off win over No. 20 West Virginia: http://t.co/hA1t0wHKsJ

— ESPN (@espn) November 1, 2014

You've got to think that the winner of that game is not only in control of the Big 12 race but will also steal a spot from the SEC in the College Football Playoff.

Assuming K-State upends a fledgling Oklahoma State on Saturday night, both the Wildcats and Horned Frogs will face off with just one loss (TCU to Baylor, K-State to Auburn).

If TCU wins, it'll have no games against the top half of the conference remaining, so it should coast to a playoff berth.

If K-State wins, it still has games at WVU and Baylor to get through. But already ranked No. 9 in the playoff rankings, road wins against those two teams will surely boost the Wildcats to a playoff berth. Chuck Carlton of The Dallas Morning News noted the difficulty and significance of TCU's win:

Morgantown really hard place to play and win, especially under circumstances. TCU victory should resonate with CFP committee.

— Chuck Carlton (@ChuckCarltonDMN) November 1, 2014

Meanwhile, the SEC still has to beat itself up. Alabama still has to play Mississippi State. Auburn plays Ole Miss on Saturday night. The Egg Bowl is still on the docket, as is the Iron Bowl and the SEC Championship Game.

With all those matchups left, it's hard to picture that any SEC team, outside of projected champion Mississippi State, will escape the SEC with fewer than two losses.

In fact, if the Bulldogs win out, that guarantees at least two losses for Ole Miss and Alabama. If Auburn falls to either Alabama or Ole Miss, that's two losses.

Simply put, there's too much left to happen in the SEC to think that it'll earn two bids to the playoffs over a one-loss Big 12 champion. 

According to Carlos A. Mendez of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, TCU head coach Gary Patterson believes his team deserves a bid:

What will the committee think? Patterson: ‘If that’s not a good enough win, I can’t help them. I’ll be 7-1 whether they like it or not.’

— Carlos A. Mendez (@calexmendez) November 2, 2014

In addition to K-State and TCU, Baylor has an outside chance at earning a bid. But TCU's victory over WVU means that the Bears' loss to the Mountaineers is an even bigger blemish on their record. With the win, Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel asserts that TCU needs to be a Top Four team:

Time to put TCU in the Top 4. What an unbelievable resume they're building.

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 1, 2014

Get ready for a barnburner in Fort Worth next week between the new-aged Horned Frogs and the old-school Wildcats.

The playoffs are on the line.

Last year, Texas Christian struggled through one of their toughest years in Gary Patterson’s tenure.  Their offense was anemic for most of the season as they shuffled between Casey Pachall and Trevone Boykin at quarterback. And even their defense, Patterson’s specialty, struggled to tame the up-tempo Big 12 offenses, allowing more than 25 points per game. 

That team went 4-8, giving it a 6-12 conference record in the Horned Frogs’ first two years in the Big 12.  The uncertainty regarding TCU was palpable, and Patterson knew he must make a change.

Immediately after the 2013 season ended, he scrapped the traditional balanced offense he had relied on so much in the past. In an effort to match some of the other potent offenses in the Big 12, he hired two Air Raid disciples to revolutionize the TCU offense into a contender.

TCU lured Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meacham from Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, respectively, to be co-offensive coordinators.

What followed has been one of the most dramatic transformations in recent memory. The TCU offense leads the nation in scoring and trails only archrival Baylor in yards per game. That production has translated into team success as well, as the Horned Frogs were ranked seventh in the nation in the first College Football Playoff rankings that were unveiled on Tuesday.

And had the Frogs not let a fourth-quarter, three-touchdown lead slip away against Baylor, they would be undefeated and likely a top-five ranked team.

A lot of that credit has to go to the tandem of Cumbie and Meacham, who have teamed up to infuse an abundance of firepower into the TCU offense. Cumbie, who led the nation in passing yards and total offense in his one year as Texas Tech’s starting quarterback in 2004, and Meacham have both benefited from coaching under several well-respected offensive minds.

Meacham spent eight seasons at Oklahoma State under Mike Gundy. For one of those seasons he had the privilege of learning from Dana Holgorsen, who served as the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator in 2010. 

Cumbie played under Mike Leach and Holgorsen at Texas Tech, and then coached under Lincoln Riley, Neal Brown and Kliff Kingsbury at Tech. 

Meacham and Cumbie have experienced instant success in their first season in Fort Worth. They have found a way to convert Trevone Boykin from a turnover-prone athlete who happened to play quarterback into a quality decision-maker and a solid pocket passer. 

Last season, Boykin took snaps at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, and he never looked comfortable behind center. This year, he has finally had the opportunity to concentrate solely on quarterback. The results have been incredible.

Boykin has thrown 22 touchdowns and only four interceptions in 2014, and he has not lost his running ability. He has rushed for over 400 yards and four touchdowns so far this year and his unique blend of speed and arm strength has him as a legitimate Heisman contender, according to the latest ESPN Heisman Watch.

Cumbie is the Horned Frogs’ quarterbacks coach and deserves a ton of credit for Boykin’s turnaround.  But it is Meacham who has the final say on play calls during the game. He is on the field, while Cumbie is in the booth relaying down to Meacham what he sees.

It has worked so far, as TCU scored at least 24 first half points in its first seven games. The offense was on full display against Cumbie’s alma mater, when the Horned Frogs amassed 735 yards and 82 points against Texas Tech’s beleaguered defense.

Ironically, Holgorsen, the common denominator of these two fine coaches' success, was the latest to fall victim to TCU’s magic. The Horned Frogs struggled for most of the game against West Virginia’s aggressive 3-3-5 blitzing defense, but a late barrage of points erased a 27-14 deficit for TCU.

The TCU offense got the ball back with 2:07 left in the fourth quarter trailing by two points, and that was plenty of time to mount a drive. Boykin made a few nifty runs and then found Kolby Listenbee on a broken coverage by the Mountaineers. A few running plays later got the ball well within range, and a field goal as time expired improved TCU’s record to 7-1.

In the past two years, the Horned Frogs likely wouldn’t have had the necessary offensive firepower to come back from two scores down like they did on Saturday. But now, they have a high-flying attack that can score in the blink of an eye.

Meacham and Cumbie are a big part of that efficiency, and they will also play an integral role in TCU’s future success.

Somehow, someway, the No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs picked up a massive 31-30 win on the road over No. 20 West Virginia on Saturday evening.

Jaden Oberkrom hit a 37-yard field goal as time expired to give the Horned Frogs the victory in what was one of the weirder games you'll see all year.

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin threw for 166 yards, a touchdown and an interception on 12-of-30 passing. Running back B.J. Catalon amassed 105 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson praised the performance of the Mountaineers defense, per Sara Wells of the WVU athletic department:

https://twitter.com/saralwells/status/528686307619651584

The Horned Frogs did a great job of shutting down Kevin White. The senior wide receiver was considered by many to be among the best in the country, but the Mountaineers star had three receptions for 28 yards.

Despite forcing five turnovers against the West Virginia offense, TCU was down for almost the entirety of the game. Had it not been for the Mountaineers' risk-averse, prevent offense late in the fourth quarter, the Horned Frogs likely would've picked up their second loss of the season.

ESPN.com's Max Olson highlighted just how poorly West Virginia performed down the stretch:

West Virginia had every opportunity to put that one away. Final 3 drives on offense: 9 plays, -7 yards.

— Max Olson (@max_olson) November 1, 2014

Perhaps it was the college football gods making things right for TCU after the team threw away a sure win late against the Baylor Bears back on Oct. 11.

Now, the question is how the College Football Playoff selection committee grades the Horned Frogs.

Beating West Virginia in Morgantown is a nice win, but are they docked style points for the nature of the victory?

HUGE win for #7 #TCU w late FG to take down WVU in hostile Morgantown environment. Interested to see how @CFBPlayoff folks view it

— Bonnie Bernstein (@BonnieBernstein) November 1, 2014

This win has big playoff implications from a Big 12 perspective, as it keeps the conference in the hunt for one of those four coveted spots. Had the Horned Frogs lost, the Kansas State Wildcats and Baylor Bears would've been the only two teams left with any sort of chance—and the two have yet to play one another, so it's really only one other team.

Pos.	Team	Record
1	Mississippi State Bulldogs	7-0 (4-0 SEC)
2	Florida State Seminoles	8-0 (5-0 ACC)
3	Auburn Tigers	6-1 (3-1 SEC)
4	TCU Horned Frogs	7-1 (4-1 Big 12)

In order for the Big 12 to have a playoff representative, the conference champion must have one loss. There's almost no way a two-loss Oklahoma/TCU/Kansas State/Baylor jumps ahead of the Big Ten and Pac-12 champions.

Should TCU, Baylor or Kansas State finish 11-1, it would also avoid a potential doomsday scenario alluded to by ESPN College GameDay's Lee Fitting:

Could easily be headed towards ending season with a 5-way tie in Big 12.

— Lee Fitting (@leefitting) November 1, 2014

If Florida State remains unbeaten—which looks like a strong possibility after the Seminoles' win over Louisville—the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 will all be vying for one, maybe two spots. You can lock in the SEC champion, FSU and possibly another one-loss SEC West team, depending on how things pan out there.

In terms of the conference hierarchy, the Big 12 might be ahead of the Big Ten, but it's still looking up at the Pac-12. The Big 12's playoff hopes rest on the shoulders of the Wildcats, Bears and Horned Frogs.

Kansas State and Baylor have a few more hurdles to scale before their possible title-deciding contest. The Wildcats play TCU and West Virginia over the next two weeks, while the Bears have Oklahoma and a tricky game against Oklahoma State the week after that.

TCU's arguably in pole position to win the conference. As USA Today's Dan Wolken pointed out, the Horned Frogs would be free and clear if they can beat K-State:

TCU remaining schedule: K-State at home, at Kansas, at Texas, Iowa State at home. Next week is the deal for them.

— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) November 1, 2014

Right now, TCU gets the edge over Kansas State because of its wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and West Virginia on the road. Plus, the Horned Frogs are one fourth-quarter collapse away from being unbeaten.

Oregon has a strong case for getting the fourth spot, but so many question marks remain about the Ducks. Their defense and offensive line raise some major red flags—not to mention they haven't had the most daunting of schedules so far.

So far this college football season, TCU is the best team in the country on which to wager, going a perfect 7-0 against the spread. But if the Horned Frogs want a piece of the big prize, something along the lines of a Big 12 conference title, they'll have to leap over at least a couple of teams, including this week's opponent, surprising West Virginia.

Point spread: Horned Frogs opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 46.8-42.3 Horned Frogs

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Horned Frogs just laid 82 points on Texas Tech last week, cruising to a cover as 24-point favorites. TCU racked up a ridiculous 785 yards of offense, 305 on the ground, and quarterback Trevone Boykin threw seven touchdown passes. So over their last three games, including that heartbreaking loss at Baylor, the Frogs have scored 182 points.

In fact, while under head coach Gary Patterson TCU has mainly been known for its defense, this year's edition of the Frogs ranks second in the country in total offense and leads the nation in scoring at 50 points per game.

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

The Mountaineers were supposedly headed for another lower-division finish in the Big 12 this season, but instead they've won four conference games in a row and sit just a half-game out of first place. Last week, West Virginia won at Oklahoma State, 34-10, pulling away in the fourth quarter to secure the victory and the cover.

That performance was especially impressive considering the Mountaineers avoided the letdown after the upset victory over Baylor the week before. West Virginia ranks 10th in the country in total offense, and while the defense only ranks 58th overall, it did hold the Bears, who own the top-ranked offense in the country, to just 318 total yards.

Smart Pick

These teams have gone to overtime each of their two meetings since joining the Big 12, which is why the underdog is 2-0 against the spread in those two games. And this game looks like it might be another close one. So the smart choice here is with the home dog, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone OVER in four of TCU's last five games
• West Virginia is 6-1 SU in its last seven games

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

After tossing seven touchdown passes in an 82-27 drubbing of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, TCU Horned Frogs gunslinger Trevone Boykin has forcefully inserted himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation. 

Not only did Boykin throw a school record seven touchdowns—the same number he threw all of last season—against the Red Raiders, he also racked up 433 yards passing and ran for 28 yards. 

TCU's Trevone Boykin threw a school-record 7 touchdown passes today. He threw 7 TD ALL of last season (12 games, 6 starts).

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 25, 2014

This season, the Horned Frogs have surprised everybody. They were ranked just seventh in the preseason Big 12 poll but now control their destiny to a Big 12 title and, possibly, a playoff berth. 

And it's thanks to Boykin, who is without a doubt the most improved player in college football. 

It started in Week 1, when Boykin was named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 320 yards and accounting for three total touchdowns against Samford. 

He's thrown for at least 250 yards in every game—his season low is 258 against Minnesota in Week 2, a 30-7 blowout where TCU got away from the passing game after taking control. Boykin made headway on the ground that game, though, rushing for a season-high 92 yards. 

But the Heisman voters buy into the philosophy of "what have you done for me lately?" 

Well, over the last two weeks against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, Boykin has thrown for 10 touchdowns and 843 yards. He's also thrown just one interception the last two games and just three all season. 

For a 4th straight game, TCU has set a single-game scoring record in its all-time series vs. an opponent (37, OU; 58, BU; 42, OSU; 61, TTU).

— Mark Cohen (@TCUCohen) October 25, 2014

But the question is, how does Boykin stand up to the two bona fide Heisman candidates at quarterback in Oregon's Marcus Mariota and Mississippi State's Dak Prescott?

Here's how Boykin compares to the two in passing yards and touchdowns, total touchdowns, interceptions, record and wins against ranked teams. 

Name	Pass TDs	Total TDs	Pass yards	INT	Record	Wins vs. ranked teams
Trevone Boykin	21	24	2,306	3	6-1	2
Marcus Mariota	24	29	2,283	1	7-1	2
Dak Prescott	15	25	1,694	5	7-0	3

Boykin leads all three in passing yards and is tied with Mariota in wins against ranked opponents. He's close in virtually every category, so it's clear that he's in the same stratosphere as those guys. 

What's more impressive is that Boykin, while he's always been a great athlete, has been all but forgettable until this season. He wasn't even named the starter in the spring, per The Dallas Morning News.  

Now, for the time being, Boykin deserves an invite to New York City as a Heisman finalist. And if TCU comes out of nowhere and wins the Big 12, he could very well hoist up college football's greatest individual honor at season's end. 

Anyone who wasn't taking Trevone Boykin's Heisman candidacy seriously better start now.

The TCU quarterback continued his renaissance Saturday against Texas Tech, throwing for 433 passing yards and seven touchdowns through the air. In addition to setting a school record, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info, those seven scores matched his season output as a sophomore:

TCU's Trevone Boykin threw a school-record 7 touchdown passes today. He threw 7 TD ALL of last season (12 games, 6 starts).

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 25, 2014

He didn't even need the entire game to produce those eye-popping numbers. After posting all those stats and 68 points through three quarters, Boykin basked in the glory from the sideline during the final period.

CMP/ATT	Pass YDs	Pass TDs	INTs	YPA	Rush YDs
22/39	433	7	0	11.1	28

Following the 82-27 onslaught, the Horned Frogs are now 6-1, with their lone loss coming in a 61-58 shootout against Big 12 rival Baylor. Both schools are now fighting for positioning inside the Top 10 and for one of the four playoff spots.

Boykin capitalized on a feeble Texas Tech defense that has now surrendered 45 or more points four times this season. Still, 82 is a lot more 45. This game will teleport him into the heart of the Heisman race. How strong is his case, and can he remain at the forefront of the top contenders throughout the season?

Through seven games, the junior has 21 passing touchdowns and three interceptions, compiling consecutive 400-yard performances. The Dallas Morning News' Ryan Gerbosi analyzed the game's impact on Boykin's national outlook.

"Any whispers you heard about Trevone Boykin being considered for major awards in the last few weeks are about to turn into screams," Gerbosi said.

Nobody would have given the TCU signal-caller any thought to begin the season, but he has already tripled his touchdown tally from last year with five games left to go. Just last season, Boykin had to avoid a slew of criticism, per College GameDay's Chris Fowler:

Impressed by Trevone Boykin's improvement and resilience. He left Twitter last year, "fan" abuse got so bad. Now a legit Heisman candidate

— Chris Fowler (@cbfowler) October 23, 2014

Two weeks ago, before the peak of his breakout, Boykin described his progress to The Associated Press' Stephen Hawkins, via NCAA.com.

"I guess you can say I'm going in with a lot more confidence," Boykin said. "We're going in on a roll as a team, not just an offense. Right now we just have to click on all three phases, and my performance will be based on what the other 10 guys without the ball do, and my decision-making."

While he needs to be mentioned as a prominent threat, he's still not the favorite despite Saturday's outburst. As great as he's been, his 58.7 completion percentage is actually a slight downgrade from last season. Maybe it's picking hairs, but lofty standards are necessary when comparing him to the nation's top college football standouts.

While Dak Prescott didn't hurt his chances with 304 total yards and three touchdowns against Kentucky, he didn't bolster them either as it was one of his worst passing days of the season. Whether it's fair, Mississippi State's success will sway voters in Prescott's direction.

Unfortunately for both men, Marcus Mariota is still operating at another stratosphere. On Friday night, the junior tallied 362 total yards along with five passing touchdowns during a 59-41 victory over California.

Aside from his sterling 24-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Oregon's star also beats the other contenders in key efficiency measures, making him the most deserving quarterback by a sizable margin.

Player	CMP %	Pass YDs	Pass TDs	INTs	YPA	Rush YDs	YPC	Rush TDs
Trevone Boykin	58.7	2,306	21	3	8.1	374	4.4	3
Dak Prescott	60.3	1,694	15	5	9.0	664	5.4	10
Marcus Mariota	68.8	2,283	24	1	10.5	325	5.2	5

Melvin Gordon and Amari Cooper, however, are also contenders in a stacked field. So one scintillating effort doesn't guarantee Boykin can remain in the discussion. But he's certainly a part of it right now, even though he still has ground to make up. 

Two stark tests await him over the next two weeks. First he'll face West Virginia, which limited Baylor to a season-low 27 points in an upset last weekend. After that, Kansas State awaits, averaging 29.3 points allowed per game after shutting out Texas.

Given his previous two seasons under center, simply emerging as one of the Heisman finalists would be considered a huge success story for Boykin. With a strong finish, that's a feasible goal.

The TCU Horned Frogs will look to end a five-game winning streak for the Oklahoma State Cowboys when they meet Saturday in a key Big 12 matchup. The Horned Frogs are coming off a tough 61-58 loss at Baylor last week and have dropped the last two meetings with Oklahoma State both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 10-point favorites at Amon G. Carter Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 39.6-32.1 Horned Frogs

Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys have been on a roll since losing to defending national champion Florida State 37-31 in the season opener. They will be playing just their second true road game of the season after winning 27-20 at Kansas last week. They failed to cover the spread as 20-point favorites.

However, four of the team’s other games during the winning streak have been decided by 10 points or more. Oklahoma State is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog and 3-1 vs. the line in its past four road games against Big 12 opponents. The Cowboys will also be facing a TCU team that is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games against conference foes.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Horned Frogs may find it difficult to get over last Saturday’s loss to the Bears since they blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter. They led 58-37 with 11:38 remaining but saw Baylor storm back with 24 unanswered points to close out the game. Still, TCU covered the seven-point spread and has gone 7-0 ATS in its last seven games dating back to last season.

Oklahoma State is not the same caliber of opponent as the Bears, and that close loss for the Horned Frogs may actually help give them some extra confidence in this one. TCU had won its previous four games, including a 37-33 win over Oklahoma two weeks ago as a 3.5-point home underdog.

Smart pick

Whoever drops this game will have two losses with the winner staying alive in the hunt for the Big 12 title. The Cowboys are still unbeaten in conference play at 3-0 but have a tough schedule ahead of them with four of their last six games away from home.

This meeting with the Horned Frogs begins that stretch, and all four road opponents are ranked within the Top 15. In fact, the only ranked opponent Oklahoma State has faced this year is the Seminoles in the season opener. A big step up in competition will hurt the Cowboys here in this spot as TCU covers its eighth straight game.

Betting trends

• Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last five games on the road.
• TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark; all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

The TCU Horned Frogs have hit some tough times since joining the Big 12 three seasons ago, but they are off to a 3-0 straight-up and against-the-spread start to this season. The Horned Frogs now begin what they hope is a winning Big 12 campaign when they host the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth, Texas.

Point spread: The Sooners opened as five-point favorites at Amon Carter Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 51.9-43.4 Sooners

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS following a 45-33 victory and cover at West Virginia two weeks ago. They had last week off. Oklahoma trailed the Mountaineers for most of the first half of that game but scored 28 of the next 31 points to pull away and eventually earn a cover as an eight-point favorite.

OU outrushed West Virginia 301-137, held the ball for almost 34 minutes and scored on a kickoff return. The Sooners had some holes to fill on offense coming into this season, but with nine starters back on defense, Oklahoma has allowed just 99 yards rushing per game so far. That defense also provided a cover in a win over Tennessee, returning an interception 100 yards for a score for the decisive tally.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs, with eight starters back on both sides of the ball from last year, look like they've got their best team since joining the Big 12. So far, they've beaten Samford, Minnesota and SMU, covering as favorites of 33, 17 and 31 points.

Beating the Mustangs at the moment doesn't mean much, but the Gophers just beat Michigan, and TCU outgained Minnesota 427-268. The Frogs have averaged 211 yards rushing so far while holding foes to just 92 yards per game on the ground. Last year, while going through a tough season, TCU gave Oklahoma a good game in Norman, losing 20-17 but covering as a 10-point dog.

Smart pick

This might be a good one, as the Frogs are trying to establish themselves as contenders in the Big 12. But home-field advantage is often overstated in college football. If this game were being played at Oklahoma, the Sooners would likely once again be favored by double digits. And OU hasn't had much trouble making money on the road lately, going 4-1 ATS in its last five games as road chalk and 3-0 ATS in its last three Big 12 road trips. So the pick here is with the Sooners, minus the points.

Trends

• Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last six games when playing TCU.
• The total has gone over in six of TCU's last nine games at home.

Note: All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates and get the free odds tracker app.

TCU's odds for 2016 received a major boost on Thursday evening with 4-star quarterback Brennen Wooten committing to the Horned Frogs. The Marble Falls High School standout tweeted out his decision:

According to 247Sports' composite ranking, Wooten is the 10th-best pro-style QB in the class of 2016 and 150th-ranked recruit overall. He joins fellow 4-star recruit Jonathan Marshall in giving TCU the No. 12 class in the country in 247Sports' early team rankings.

ESPN.com's Max Olson called Wooten a "great get" for the Horned Frogs:

Tyler Donohue of Bleacher Report tweeted out the signal-caller's impressive stats from his sophomore season:

Wooten was one of many talented quarterbacks to take part in the Rivals Camp Series. The event posted a Vine of the Marble Falls, Texas, star in action:

TCU had recently been one of the best non-AQ schools before moving to the Big 12. Although the school is coming off of its first losing season since 2004, it's not hard to see why Wooten would be tempted by what the Horned Frogs have to offer.

According to Danny Davis of the Austin American-Statesman, he believes the program is going in the right direction:

Although Wooten isn't the kind of generational recruit who will single-handedly take TCU to the next level, he has the potential to capably lead the offense down the line and help make the Horned Frogs one of the top teams in the Big 12.

This is the kind of player Gary Patterson needs if he wants to get the program back into a bowl game once again.