Sonny Dykes: 'For Sure' I Believe TCU Belongs in CFP Despite Loss vs. Kansas State
After missing a chance to win the Big 12 championship and all but assure itself a spot in the College Football Playoff with a 31-28 overtime loss to Kansas State on Saturday, TCU finds itself at the mercy of the selection committee to make the Top Four when the final rankings are announced.
Speaking to reporters following his team's defeat, head coach Sonny Dykes was asked if the Horned Frogs deserve to be in the playoff.
"For sure I do," he responded.
Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman agreed with Dykes' assessment of TCU's playoff chances.
TCU entered Saturday's conference title game with a 12-0 record and ranked No. 3 in the College Football Playoff standings.
The playoff rankings were already in for a shake-up after Friday when No. 4 USC got blown out by Utah 47-24 in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans' defeat certainly helps TCU because it gives the selection committee two spots it has to think about.
Georgia and Michigan are the top two teams in the rankings and will play their conference title games later in the day.
The top two teams on the outside of the playoff in the most recent rankings were Ohio State at No. 5 and Alabama at No. 6.
USA Today's Dan Wolken laid out the reasons why he is skeptical that a two-loss Alabama team would jump TCU when the final rankings are released:
TCU's regular-season schedule does work to its advantage if there is a debate. It entered Saturday with the best strength of record in the country, per ESPN.com. Its record includes a previous win over Kansas State on Oct. 22 and No. 20 Texas.
If you want to find a way for the selection committee to knock TCU, its schedule doesn't look as impressive as it once did.
The Horned Frogs' victories over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas looked good at the time when those teams were all ranked in the Top 20 of the Associated Press poll, but they finished the season with a combined 19-17 record.
Of course, the same argument can be made for Alabama. The Crimson Tide also hold a victory over Texas, but its only other win against a team in the current playoff Top 25 was over No. 24 Mississippi State.
Dykes is certainly biased in campaigning for his own team, but it's hard to argue any of the teams that could potentially be in the mix have a strong enough resume to leapfrog TCU.
The final College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled Sunday at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
ESPN College Gameday 2022: Week 14 Location Hosts, TV Schedule and Predictions
TCU has never been the outright Big 12 champion, and it has only won a share of the title once, in 2014. But that could soon change.
On Saturday, the Horned Frogs will look to remain undefeated when they take on Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
It's one of several conference championship matchups taking place this weekend that will help decide which four teams will reach the College Football Playoff.
ESPN's College GameDay will be airing live from Arlington at 9 a.m. ET to kick off the day's action. It's the third time this season that the popular college football kickoff show will be held at the site of a TCU game.
Before diving deeper into the Big 12 title tilt, here's the full schedule of conference championship games, along with predictions for each contest.
Conference Championship Schedule, Predictions
Friday, Dec. 2
Conference USA: North Texas vs. UTSA, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Pac-12: No. 11 Utah vs. No. 4 USC, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Saturday, Dec. 3
Big 12: No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU, noon ET, ABC
MAC: Toledo vs. Ohio, noon ET, ESPN
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina vs. Troy, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
SEC: No. 14 LSU vs. No. 1 Georgia, 4 p.m. ET, CBS
AAC: No. 22 UCF vs. No. 18 Tulane, 4 p.m. ET, ABC
Mountain West: Fresno State vs. Boise State, 4 p.m. ET, Fox
Big Ten: Purdue vs. No. 2 Michigan, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
ACC: No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 23 North Carolina, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Picks in bold.
Big 12 Championship Game Preview
If TCU loses the Big 12 Championship Game and finishes 12-1, will its resume still be impressive enough for the College Football Playoff selection committee? It could be a close call, and it will lead to plenty of debates.
That's why the Horned Frogs need to take care of business on Saturday. If they win the Big 12 title to improve to 13-0, they're heading to the CFP for the first time in program history. There will be no question about it.
TCU has already defeated Kansas State once, and it just needs to do so again. But it was a close game the last time the two teams met on Oct. 22.
Kansas State built an 18-point lead midway through the second quarter, and it looked as if TCU could be headed to its first loss in its seventh game of the year. Instead, it scored 28 unanswered points and came away with a 38-28 victory.
The Horned Frogs compiled 495 total yards in that matchup, with junior running back Kendre Miller scoring a pair of second-half rushing touchdowns, including one in the fourth quarter to put the game away.
It wasn't the only time TCU won a close game during the regular season. Eight of its 12 victories have come by 10 or fewer points. And with each one, the team has built more confidence.
"I feel like it shocked lot of people, like even people on our team, that we were going to do this good, me included," Miller said, per Stephen Hawkins of the Associated Press.
It's been an impressive turnaround in Sonny Dykes' first season as TCU head coach. The Horned Frogs had won seven or fewer games in each of the previous four years.
Now, TCU is one win away from a CFP berth. However, Kansas State is trying to play spoiler. The Wildcats haven't won a Big 12 title since earning a share of it in 2012, and they haven't been the outright conference champion since 2003.
Kansas State is also seeking revenge after what happened last time vs. TCU.
"I was sick after that game," Wildcats center Hayden Gillum said, per Hawkins. "It was probably one of the harder losses in the year. … We know we owe these guys one."
If TCU loses, it may not make it to the CFP, especially if it loses to Kansas State in lopsided fashion. There's a chance the selection committee could then put in Ohio State (11-1). But there would surely be some who believe the Horned Frogs were more deserving than the Buckeyes, which didn't make it to the Big Ten Championship Game after losing to Michigan.
However, TCU has had such a knack for finding ways to win this year that there's a good chance it will take care of business against Kansas State.
Max Duggan, No. 4 TCU Stun Twitter in Win over Baylor to Keep CFP Hopes Alive
On the strength of perhaps the wildest ending in college football this season, the No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs remained undefeated with a 29-28 road win over the Baylor Bears on Saturday.
With 1:34 left in the game and no timeouts remaining, TCU took possession of the ball, trailing by two points. Quarterback Max Duggan impressively moved the Horned Frogs into field-goal range, but some questionable decisions followed.
TCU ran the ball on first down with 30 seconds left, spiked the ball on second down and ran it again on third.
Head coach Sonny Dykes ran his field-goal team onto the field with less than 20 seconds remaining, and kicker Griffin Kell coolly nailed a 40-yard field goal as time expired to win the game:
After witnessing the shocking manner in which TCU improved to 11-0, college football experts and fans alternated between praising the execution of the game-winner and the Horned Frogs' ability to come through in big moments, while also questioning why such a bizarre sequence of plays was called:
While many were responsible for TCU hanging tough and overcoming an eight-point deficit in the fourth quarter, Duggan received many of the accolades.
The TCU signal-caller took multiple big hits and was left battered and bloodied, but he still managed to complete 24 of his 35 passes for 327 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 50 yards and a score.
Most impressively, Duggan was without his biggest weapons during the fourth quarter, as wide receiver Derius Davis wasn't active because of a hand injury, while both wideout Quentin Johnston and running back Kendre Miller got injured during the game.
Given what Duggan accomplished with a depleted group of weapons, Twitter gave him a ton of credit and threw some Heisman Trophy hype behind him:
One loss almost certainly would knock TCU out of the College Football Playoff running because of the presences of undefeated Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan, as well as strong one-loss teams such as Tennessee and USC, plus two-loss LSU, but the Horned Frogs kept their national championship hopes alive Saturday.
TCU has made a habit of overcoming second-half deficits to remain undefeated, and it is likely just two wins away from punching its ticket into the CFP.
Following a home date with Iowa State next week, TCU will play in the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 3. Neither game is a gimme, but Saturday's result showed that the Horned Frogs may indeed be a team of destiny this season.
2022 College Football Playoff Rankings: TCU, Your Spotlight Has Arrived
After a few days of waiting and wondering, the TCU Horned Frogs are officially fourth in the newest College Football Playoff rankings.
But as the Horned Frogs enter the decisive stretch of the regular season, they're No. 1 in the spotlight.
We fully expected top-ranked Georgia would be here, along with fellow front-runners Ohio State and Michigan.
TCU even close to the Top Four, though? Not at all.
Last offseason, the program fired longtime coach Gary Patterson. Sonny Dykes arrived from nearby SMU and brought a high-powered offensive system, but TCU looked more like a bowl candidate than a Big 12 contender. Max Duggan, who didn't even win the quarterback competition initially, has become a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate.
Through 10 weeks, the surging program—one that posted a 23-24 mark over the last four seasons—holds a 9-0 record with a straightforward path to the CFP. Win out, and TCU will be a part of the Playoff.
As much as you or I might be eager to see a real CFP controversy, there's no chance that a 13-0 power-conference champion would be excluded from the national semifinals. However, the Horned Frogs' potential road to 13-0 is stacked with major obstacles.
On Saturday night, they travel to face No. 18 Texas (6-3). Next weekend, they head to rival Baylor (6-3). To close the regular season, TCU hosts Iowa State (4-5), a pesky program with three straight victories in the series.
Then there's the Big 12 Championship Game for a likely showdown with a nine-win opponent.
This is an ideal, much-needed stretch for TCU to eliminate any doubters lingering within the CFP Selection Committee. Because, folks, the Horned Frogs have at least a few of those.
In the initial CFP poll, TCU landed at No. 7 behind Alabama. Committee chair Boo Corrigan cited TCU's lack of a dominant defense as a weakness and evidence for why it trailed the one-loss Crimson Tide. Suspect reasoning, for sure, but nonetheless what we heard.
You know what muffles those criticisms? More wins.
Corrigan also pointed to the Horned Frogs' need for comebacks—against Oklahoma State and Kansas State—as a negative in the comparisons. That happened again in Week 10 with another late surge to beat Texas Tech.
You know what silences that flimsy justification? More wins, no matter what the scoreboard reads in the third quarter.
"As you know," Corrigan said Tuesday on ESPN, "we value wins."
Funny how quickly the tone changes.
Now, sure, the elusive "game control" is a plausible reason to keep TCU behind a more impressive undefeated team with a weaker schedule such as Michigan. We can talk about TCU's resume as it stands, too.
Spun positively, TCU has toppled four opponents that were ranked at the time of the game. In the moment, Oklahoma (3-1), Kansas (5-0), Oklahoma State (5-0) and Kansas State (5-1) each owned excellent records. It isn't TCU's fault that all four programs have since lost another game, or that key injuries have plagued each of those rosters.
On the other hand, a team's year-end record is a more accurate measure of any program. While the Big 12 is deep, it lacks a second upper-tier contender given that everyone beyond TCU has three-plus losses.
You don't have to agree—or disagree—with either rationale. Both are logical explanations of TCU's situation.
But that's simply a sidebar of more impactful results to come.
As we remind you in early and mid-November every single year, the arguments of note on this particular Tuesday might not even be important in a week. Or in two weeks, three weeks, or on Selection Day.
TCU might use any perceived slight as motivational fuel, but the only storyline that matters is Saturday's result at Texas. And then the showdown at Baylor, the clash with Iowa State and a possible spot in the Big 12 title game.
Want more respect, TCU? The spotlight—your opportunity—is here.