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Dr. Bob's Advice For LA TECH (+1.5) @ UTAH ST. *FREE STRONG OPINION*

Oct 24, 2009

Louisiana Tech 29 UTAH ST. (-1.5) 25

Over/Under Total: 52.5
12:00 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Oct-24

The opening line on this game was Louisiana Tech by 1 1/2 points and my math model also favors the Bulldogs by 1 1/2 points. However, Utah State is now favored by 1 1/2 points, so the line value is with Louisiana Tech here and the technical analysis also sides with the Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech applies to a 50-14-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Utah State applies to a 51-104-3 ATS negative momentum situation that is based on the Aggies' 3 game losing streak. Utah State also applies to a negative 185-301-4 ATS situation. I'll consider Louisiana Tech a Strong Opinion in this game.

Read more on my website www.drbobsports.com

I have 5 NCAA Best Bets and 6 NCAA Strong Opinions this week, and 2 NFL Best Bets and 3 NFL Strong Opinion!

Read an article about me in the Wall Street Journal

Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for updates on Best Bet releases

Big Numbers, Big Win, Big Expectations

Oct 18, 2009

Crushed spirits, broken dreams. The life gone from the game. That's what most teams would be like after a major conference loss that was as excruciating as it was embarrassing.

Not the Bulldogs, however.

New Mexico State never really had a chance from kickoff. Tech's side of the scoreboard climbed like an odometer: 3, 10, 17, 24, 31, 38, 45.

The one splinter of light for NMSU came in the last 5 minutes of the fourth quarter when Davon House returned a fumble for a touchdown. But by then it was too late. The Bulldogs had already put up 45 unanswered points. The Aggies can thank House for preventing a shutout.

Tech spread the ball with a vengeance. Porter and Livas got their fair share of pigskin, but no less than 8 different players had over 10 rushing yards each, and 5 players had over 10 yards receiving.

Jenkins himself rushed for 35 yards and a touchdown.

Overall, Tech had 540 yards of total offense, and allowed only 142. That 540 yards was almost evenly balanced between the ground game and the air game.

We did lose a fumble, and our 3rd downs could use a little work, but this is not the team that was crushed under Nevada last week.

It's a team that sees punishment as opportunity to improve. Every game won by the Dawgs this season has been by a margin of 21 points or more.

Next week it's another Aggie Team, Utah State, that will feel the Dawg Bite. Utah is 1-5 overall and 0-2 in the WAC.

But it's a road game. Time for Tech to take the W outside The Joe and show the world what the Dawg can do.

Go Dawgs!

Wolf Pack Goes Over and Through Dawgs

Oct 11, 2009

Tech had hope coming into Mackay Stadium. The week before, much anticipated Hawaii fell before the Dawgs in a bloodbath through the ground and through the air.

Tech was now 1-0 in the WAC after a bad season start with two heartbreaking losses to Auburn and Navy.

The Hawaii win gave Tech its second win of in Joe Aillet Stadium, but the next WAC opponent was far away in Reno, Nevada.

Bring it on.

Tech had crushed Nicholls State the week before the impressive performance against Hawaii, and Nevada had not looked too impressive so far in the season, losing consecutive games against Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Mizzou.

But then Nevada had hosted ULNV for a brutal 63-28 victory over the Rebels. Their season began to show light again.

Tech looked great on the opening drive as Phillip Livas made an excellent punt return to set up good field position.

First blood to Tech. The score was now 7-0.

The game went downhill from there. Kaepernick beat the defense up through the air, and he joined the rest of the Wolf Pack running game to keep the Dawgs whipped on the ground. Kaepernick himself rushed for 2 TD in a performance that Tim Tebow could envy.

On the other side of the ball, Tech had some beautiful moments through the air, and Daniel Porter kept the heart in the Bulldog fans with a total of 2 rushing touchdowns.But the ground game had a tough time being consistent with the physical Nevada defensive line in their faces.

And to add insult to injury, the Wolf Pack wont forget this game.

Not for a long time.

It was Nevada Head Coach Chris Ault's 200th win in his career. He is the 6th active coach in the NCAA to reach this marker.

Credit where credit is due, however. Kaepernick proved that he is an exceptional quarterback. The Wolfpack may go far with him, and the end-of-season match-up against Boise State will be a game to remember.

Tech needs to significantly improve its pass defense and ground game. Porter, Compton, and Jenkins are all very talented, but this is not the Independence Bowl team of 2008. Not yet by far.

Tech faces New Mexico State next week in Joe Aillet Stadium, and you can be assured that they will be looking for a undisputed win to throw off the Reno Blues.

Go Dawgs!

Mitch Picks the Independence Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois

Dec 28, 2008

I cannot express how good it feels to have the site up and running.

While I enjoy having a site, especially one as successful as The College Football Place, it involves just a ton of work, and that workload tripled over the past few days. While a hacker may be more technically adept than I am, and they might get their thrills from seeing other people suffer, they will never be able to stop our effort or deter us for even a second from bringing everyone the best college football community on the net.

As we get back to football, I have been pretty good throughout the bowls thus far in some pretty tough games, going 7-4 against the spread. Jordan is lagging a little behind, but as we have seen throughout the season, he usually ends up on top in a big way when the final tallies are made. Jordan made his pick on this one, and it was the first thing I posted when the site came back up.

We start to hit full speed, as today is the last day for a while where we just have one college football game. So lets look a little deeper into this one and see what we find.

Independence Bowl    Independence Stadium  Shreveport, LA

Northern Illinois (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5)

Sunday December 28, 2008    8:15 EST     The Line: Louisiana Tech -2

Overview:

For those of you tuning into this one expecting a high scoring offensive show, you may be a little disappointed. This game shapes up as a defensive struggle by two teams who like to burn the clock so with the clock rules that were changed this season this has a good chance of being the shortest college football bowl game in history.

So while this may be forever known as the game where neither the Big 12 nor the SEC, who had a bowl tie in for this game, had enough teams bowl eligible to fill the slot, this thing sets up for all kinds of dubious distinctions.

While Northern Illinois had a nice turnaround season, they never had that marquee win that many teams have and use to build on. They won just about every game one would have thought they were going to win, and lost in those games they were picked to lose. While they were slightly better against the spread (6-5), they really would like a win here to have that something extra to build on for next year.

Louisiana Tech had a nice season for a team with modest expectations, and was highlighted by winning four of their last five games to get them into this bowl. While the season started with a win against and SEC team, Mississippi State, it also included a loss to Army. Louisiana Tech appears to be a program headed in the right direction, and a win in this one should go a long way on helping them gain some ground on the elite teams in the WAC.

See Mitch's Independence Bowl College Football pick against the spread

Boise State-Louisiana Tech: Know Your Enemy (For This Week, Anyway)

Sep 29, 2008

"Go OUIALST!"

Boise State will open up their WAC schedule this Wednesday when the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs come to town. The Broncos are coming off a HUGE win at Autzen Stadium against the Oregon Ducks, while the Bulldogs took care of business against Southeast Louisiana in their last contest.

Most fans, like me, know little about Louisiana Tech and lil' ole Ruston, LA. Needless to say, there is a lot to be learned about this week's foe (don't worry, Kellen Moore already knows their defense intimately)...so let's explore through the magic of factoids and childish jokes.

For the mutual benefit of the Bulldog faithful, I will let you get to know us a little bit too...so take notes.



Ten things Bronco fans might not know about Louisiana Tech

10. Louisiana Tech University was created and founded by Act 68 of the Acts of the State of Louisiana of 1894, established "for the education of the white children of the State of Louisiana in the arts and sciences." Don't worry...they integrated in 1965.

9. Louisiana Tech offered the first Nanosystems Engineering program in the nation. If your Nanosystems need a tune-up...you know where to go.

8. Louisiana Tech is not the only school located in tiny Ruston, LA—the Louisiana Center for the Blind is there too. Insert referee joke ---->here.

7. Country music singer Trace Adkins is a Louisiana Tech alum—as is Terry Bradshaw, who you may also best remember as a country singer.

6. Louisiana Tech is one of only three current WAC members to have beaten Boise State in football (in 2001). You will pay for this transgression, Derek Dooley...you will pay.

5. Louisiana Tech quarterback Taylor Bennett once famously committed to play for Boise State before turning tail and running to Georgia Tech. This weekend he will get to play on the blue and will also be playing the role of lunch meat with Ryan Winterswyk and Mike T. Williams reprising their roles as "the bread."

4. Current Tech coach Derek Dooley practiced law for two years before becoming a coach. This means that he not only examines game film...but also cross-examines it.

3. Coach Dooley is the son of legendary Georgia coach and Athletic Director Vince Dooley...the man responsible for unleashing Herschel Walker on the world.

2. There are currently five active NFL players that played for Louisiana Tech...two of them are kickers (Josh Scobee and Matt Stover). Good news, Brad Oestriecher!

1. Louisiana Tech has an all-time win percentage of 55 percent and has won 23 conference championships since 1915. Most of the Dogs' championships were won in the Southland Conference of the FCS and the Gulf States Conference of the NAIA. The Bulldogs won divisional national championships in '73 and '74.

For a team with a lifetime record barely over .500...I would say that these accomplishments are pretty darn impressive, no?



Ten things Louisiana Tech fans might not know about Boise State

10. Dr. Robert Kustra, Boise State University president, is the former Lieutenant Governor of Illinois. Who says that a Lt. Governor can't be president?

9. Troy McClain, a cast member on the first season of The Apprentice, was offered a full-ride scholarship to any school of his choice by Donald Trump. McClain chose Boise State. Eat that, Harvard!

8. According to an antiquated and bizarre statute...it is illegal for residents of Boise to fish from a giraffe's back. Dang, there goes my afternoon.

7. The school record of 732 yards of offense in one game came against...wait for it...the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in 2003. Pssh...Kellen Moore could do that all by himself!

6. Earl Boen, who played Dr. Silberman in Terminator 2, attended Boise State. We so totally own Louisiana Tech in the B-list actor department.

5. Once upon a time the land on which most of Boise State's campus sits was an island. Its most famous resident was Sage Brush Ann (also known as Tarpaper Annie), who lived alone in a modest tarpaper shack. I got nothin'...this one speaks for itself.

4. A ghost named "Dinah" is said to haunt Boise State's Communication Building that was built in 1941. This is extremely relevant, because after Wednesday's game, Jeron Johnson is going to haunt Taylor Bennett fortnightly.

3. The father of Boise State football, Lyle Smith, compiled a record of 156-26-8 in his time as head coach. The Broncos had five undefeated seasons under Smith, as well as 16 conference titles and a national championship. Smith also coached the baseball team for 17 years and the basketball team for one season. Smith once raced Superman and won by two-tenths of a second.

2. The attendance record (32,335) for Bronco Stadium was set two weeks ago when Bowling Green came to town. See Mom, I told you I'd be in the record books one day.

1. Bronco safety Ellis Powers and Bronco wide receiver Jeremy Childs are cousins. Kellen Moore's cousin? Chuck Norris.



There...now we all know each other better—and knowing is half the battle.

Prediction for New Mexico State game

Sep 12, 2008

This game should give any member of the Big Red faithful the heebee jeebees. These Hal Mumme (pronounced ‘Mummy‘) led New Mexico State Aggies throw more unorthodox junk at you than a drunken wiffleball game with the Niekro family.

If New Mexico State wants to sell clothes, they should change their mascot from Lasso Larry to this dude.

Not only will the Huskers face the brand new offensive sensation that is sweeping the nation, i.e. ‘The Spread Offense’ , but they will also have to contend with the mysterious, radioactive force that is the 3-3-5 defense, a “wacky” scheme dreamed up by lazy defensive coordinators who hate stopping the run, but love interceptions.

Just kidding, actually. That assumption is wrong. At first glance, it would appear as if the 3-3-5 alignment would lead to plenty of running room. But sometimes with this scheme, the opposite is true. The 61 year old defensive coordinator for New Mexico State is Joe Lee Dunn. Dunn has done been the dadgum head coach at New Mexico and also defensive coordinator at Arkansas, South Carolina, Memphis and Mississippi State.

When Dunn was coordinator at Mississippi State in 1999, the team led the nation in both rushing defense and total defense.

The Aggies pregame notes include this fascinating nugget:

Dunn’s 3-3-5 scheme has given opposing offensive coordinators fits for over 40 years and this year should be no different. Each member of the Aggie defense had to graduate from a preseason camp in Gallup, N.M., by completing a drill called ‘The Packer,’ which consists of 15 minutes of up-downs. No breaks, no water. All the defensive players on this year’s team graduated from the Packer day.

Yeah!

Take that, future opponents of the Aggies!

No breaks. No water. You heard me.

Everyone knows up-downs equal touchdowns, son. And ALL of our defensive players graduated from Packer Day. ALL OF ‘EM!

Maybe you should think about forfeiting this game, before we fly up there to kick all your asses and drink all your water.

Sorry about that. Back to this 3-3-5 mummified scheme. During tomorrow’s game, you’ll see New Mexico State dropping eight, nine, ten…. heck - during the spring game, we even saw footage of your mom dropping back into pass coverage.

The Aggies defense is designed to bewilder opposing quarterbacks, giving them strange looks they’ve never seen before. How will Joe Ganz do? This news isn’t encouraging:

“Joe Ganz used the term “weird” five times while answering two questions about what he’ll see. “It looks like a defense I play against in Madden,” he said, referring to the video game.”

Yikes. Just to further compound matters, the diabolical Aggies run the spread offense. The Nebraska secondary has looked vulnerable so far against Western Michigan and San Jose State.

The Aggies have a senior QB named Chase Holbrook who completes over 70% of his passes. That’s not a typo. It’s really seventy percent. In three years he’s thrown for 8,485 yards and 60 touchdowns. They have two killer receivers in A.J. Harris (13 career TDs) and Chris Williams (23 career TDs).

According to New Mexico State, this dude Chris Williams ran a ridiculous 4.24 in the 40-yard dash, making him the fastest player in New Mexico State history. Which is kind of like someone being the best student in the University of Phoenix history. Except that you have actual responsibilities, like putting lipstick on Lasso Larry.

How about some random bullets before we make our prediction.

  • New Mexico State is 1-18 against BCS schools since the Bowl Championship Series was implemented in 1998.
  • NMSU’s only win against a BCS school since 1998 came on Sept. 18, 1999, a 35-7 win at No. 22 Arizona State. That was also New Mexico State’s only win over a ranked opponent and it ended an 0-15 drought against Top 25 teams before that.
  • The Aggies’ only wins against teams from the Big 12 came at Kansas in 1988 as NMSU won 42-29 and at Iowa State in 1983, as the Aggies beat the Cyclones 24-17.
  • A petition needs to be submitted to the NCAA which would give every school the option of temporarily changing their school mascot to a “Mummy” if and when Hal Mumme becomes the head coach of their football team

Vegas has Nebraska favored by 25.5 points, with the over/under at 58.5. Nebraska has an open date next week, so it’s not like they should be ‘looking ahead’ to anything, especially Virginia Tech. They’ll have 13 days to recuperate from this game, so they shouldn’t be holding anything back.

Still, this experienced Aggies offense has me more worried than Joe Ganz playing Madden against the computer on “All-Pro” level.

I think the Huskers will ultimately prevail, but it could be a nail-biter. A high-scoring nail-biter. Sorry, that’s just what my gut tells me.

HUSKERS 36 NEW MEXICO STATE 33

(Derek) Dooley Noted: Louisiana Tech Football Preview

Aug 19, 2008

Part Five of our WAC football preview is here.  Today, I am examining the down-but-not-out Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs have been down in recent years, but they are always capable of killing WAC title hopes for any number of WAC teams.  With a new coach and a new outlook, the Bulldogs might surprise some teams this season.  Then again...maybe they won't.

Ruston, Louisiana's motto is "a city planning for the future"—and while a more fitting motto for the city may have been "only five hours from New Orleans," or "no worse than Moscow," second year La Tech coach Derek Dooley is taking the city's mantra to heart and planning for the future of the Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech hasn't won a WAC championship since 2001 (at the expense of the Broncos, no less) and has only been on the good side of .500 once since then, but the Bulldogs seem to have renewed vigor under Dooley and are hoping that this year may be the year that they get over the hump.

And to think you could have known only victory on the blue turf

Quarterback Taylor Bennett at one point looked destined to become a Bronco.  Things changed...Taylor fell out of love with the blue and went on to a so-so career at Georgia Tech.  In an ironic twist of fate, Bennett was still able to experience the blue turf in a Humanitarian Bowl loss to Fresno State last year.

Now, through the magic of NCAA loopholes, Bennett has departed Georgia Tech and enrolled at Louisiana Tech, where he will likely become the starter.  Bennett will again get to experience what playing on the blue turf feels like when the Bulldogs visit Boise on Oct. 1.

Thanks to Ryan Winterswyk and Mike T. Williams, he will also get to find out what blue turf tastes like.



Lookin' for bright spots

The Bulldogs should be better in the quarterback department after the departure of the not-so-aptly named Zac Champion.  Champion threw for a mere 13 TDs last season while throwing 10 INTs.  He was also sacked 29 times.

Obviously the passing stats weren't great during the Champion era, but the 54 quarterback sacks in the last two seasons certainly point to another underperforming unit: the O-line.  The O-line performed adequately enough to spring senior running back Patrick Jackson for nearly 1,000 yards last season—but clearly their pass blocking must improve.

Thankfully for the Bulldogs, Jackson is back, and they have junior RB Daniel Porter to lean on as well.  Porter and Jackson may be the third-best running back tandem in the WAC behind Boise State's Johnson and Whoever and Fresno State's Matthews and Miller.

With consistency in the running game and better play from the offensive line, Tech should improve upon last year's 99th-place ranking in scoring offense—and they must if they want to finish higher than fifth in the WAC.

Oh, here's a bit of good news—Bennett was 27 of 44 for 370 yards and three scores in Sunday's Fall Scrimmage.  Good news for the offense, anyway—which leads us to...

Shrewish Defense League

The Bulldogs were ranked 91st in total defense last season, giving up an average of 424 yards/game.  While not the worst defensive team in the WAC, they are far from the best—and their offense was not strong enough to allow for that kind of defensive production.

By contrast, the top two teams in the WAC last year, Hawaii and Boise State, had national defensive rankings of 34th and 25th, respectively.

On a better note for the Dogs' D, they nearly cut in half the amount of rushing yardage allowed from 2006 to 2007.

Also, free safety Antonio Baker returns after putting together an all-WAC season and making 118 tackles.  Baker is a solid player for the Dogs and will lead their defense again this season.

Whenever your free safety leads the team in tackles, however, there are problems with the line.

CB Weldon Brown will help Baker keep offenses from getting too deep into the La Tech secondary, but both, I'm sure, would appreciate a bit more help from the boys up front.

Dog Days

I truly believe that Derek Dooley is going to be a great coach—I just don't know if it is going to be at Louisiana Tech.  Dooley's first year in Ruston saw his team go 5-7, which was a modest improvement over 2006's 3-10 campaign with Jack Bicknell at the helm, but Dooley can prove the worth of his contract this season if the Dogs can get above .500.

That said, the Bulldogs face no easy task this year as their schedule is not a friendly one, sending them to play at Kansas, Boise State, Hawaii, Army, and San Jose State.  Throw in tough home games against Mississippi State, Fresno State, and a Nevada finale, and it appears the Dogs could replicate last season's record.

I am going to go ahead and give Dooley the benefit of the doubt and say that the Dogs will go 6-6 this season—I doubt that they'll get by Nevada, Fresno, Hawaii, or Boise State in conference, and the Kansas and Mississippi State games will be toughies—but they should distinguish themselves as better than the bottom of the WAC and will be knocking on the door in another year or two.

Though they are a terrible geographical fit for the WAC, I like Louisiana Tech and their fanbase, and I think that Derek Dooley will run a tight ship.  Whether that will translate into wins or a shot at the WAC title remains to be seen.  Maybe next year?

Previous previews:

Utah State preview

Idaho preview

New Mexico State preview

San Jose State preview

Uneducated Guesses about the Boise State Quarterback Situation

Aug 17, 2008

First off, let me state that I have tried to objectively look at the Boise State QB race from the beginning. Devotees of the blog may recall that prior to Spring ball, I had Coughlin as my frontrunner.

It is clear at this point that MC is not going to be the man. Let me also state that I have been critical of the local media outlets when they have gone too far in campaigning for one QB over the other.

I have no qualms saying that I have jumped on the Kellen Moore bandwagon and I think he obviously has a bright future at Boise State.

So make no mistake, when I make my following prediction: I am not endorsing one QB over another (not that it matters to the coaching staff) and I think that we are gold if the coaches go either way.

That said...after watching yesterday's scrimmage (and not watching any of the Fall practices)—I predict that senior Bush Hamdan is going to be the starter for 2008.

Hamdan, though he had a rougher outing in the first Fall scrimmage...has, from all accounts had a good camp. He was really neck and neck with Moore after Spring ball (an amazing testament to just how good the frosh is) and the fifth year senior has had a solid summer.

Last night, though, Moore again looked crisp, Hamdan looked more like a starter to me. Moore had a beautiful 50-yard TD pass to Jeremy Childs...but Hamdan had an amazing TD strike to Austin Pettis that he threw off of his back foot as the pocket had nearly collapsed on him.

Hamdan also had a very nice touchdown pass to Vinny Perretta and several scrambling tosses that found their mark. Hamdan finished the night 9 of 14 for 214 yards with 3 TDs and one INT (thankfully to new starter Brandyn Thompson). Kellen Moore was 13 of 21 for 149 yards, one TD and one INT.

These stats certainly don't indicate a huge chasm between the senior and the frosh and Moore did have the better first scrimmage...but like I said...Hamdan just looked more like the starter yesterday.

I will pull a Hal Mumme and have my "gut feeling" moment. Hamdan is gonna be the starter...Moore will see some time this year...Moore will be unstoppable and incredibly good as a sophomore.

For those of you who would like to serve up piping hot crow for me if I am wrong, I believe on a PC it's the alt-Print Screen command.

Other observations from the second fall scrimmage:

Vinny Perretta is going to tear it up this year. He had two long TD receptions last night and has looked very good this Summer. I think we would've done better last season with VP healthy.

Our RBs look great. I'm used to the sight of Ian Johnson in street clothes at scrimmages, so I'm not too rattled by the fact he didn't play.

Doug Martin, Jeremy Avery and DJ Harper look great. They run hard and don't go down without a fight. Even freshman Matt Kaiserman and walk-on Carlo Audagnotti looked good on the blue.

Jarvis Hodge looks like Kimbo Slice. Hodge didn't play yesterday, but he is sporting a thick beard and if you squint...he looks a bit like the wannabe brawler.

Chandler Koch will be good. Koch is tall and has soft hands...maybe he uses Palmolive?

Our Freshman O-lineman are huge. Faraji Wright, Joe Kellogg, Tom Swanson and others are gonna be big players for us in the future...literally.

Tommy Smith and George Iloka will be all-WAC someday soon. alt-Printscreen

Boise State has international appeal. I had three Germans speaking ze Deutsch next to me at last night's scrimmage.

Offense ruled the night BUT Kyle Wilson, Jeron Johnson, Billy Winn and others were not suited up.

Brandyn Thompson will fill in nicely for our dearly departed Orlando Scandrick.

This will be a fun year. How's that for another bold prediction?

Scrimmage Links

Murphy less sure of QB race outcome.

Dustin Lapray weighs in on the action. Grab a thesaurus.

IPT's scrimmage photo gallery.

Mission Critical: New Mexico State Football Preview

Aug 7, 2008

Hal Mumme is a man on a mission. After successfully completing several other missions, that included: Feathering his hair like a majestic bird, blowing snot-rockets on national television, and making people uncomfortable at WAC media events—Mumme has refocused his efforts this season on simply keeping his job.

Mumme is a complicated man...a man who likes to wear lettermen's jackets and drape snotrags towels over his shoulder. He also likes to lose football games.

BUT that is all changing this year...you see, Hal Mumme has a 'gut feeling' that this year's Aggie team will be successful. And if we know anything about Hal Mumme, it's that his gut feelings are usually correct. Let's see what they're up against.

Hooray mediocrity!

The Aggies return 15 starters from last season (and Chase Holbrook returns nearly all of his teeth), when they went 4-9...so you know those seasoned vets know how to lose quite well.

Eight of those returners are on offense...an offense that is equal parts excellent under the guidance of senior QB Chase Holbrook...and terrible (might wanna check this out again).

WR Chris Williams is a legitimate stud for the Aggies. He may be small, but he is fast and has soft hands. Williams had 772 yards receiving and 11 TDs in 2007 and he only played in eight freakin' games!

Chase Holbrook, when healthy, can really spread the ball around and routinely puts up big numbers and high passing percentages. Last season, a letdown by Holbrook's standards—he still managed to throw for almost 4,000 yards and toss 26 TDs. The headscratcher here is that they only won four games. Why?

Well, no rushing game to speak of is a good start. The Aggies top rushers from 2007 combined for only 1,037 yards and 7 TDs. "They're a passing team," you'll say.

But that doesn't matter, the Aggies are too predictable on offense—they have to get some production from their backs or Holbrook has to do too much. The Aggies put up an amazing -19 yards rushing against BSU last year. That's not good.

Defense wins championships...that's why NMSU has none.


New Mexico State's defense was ranked 94th in the country last year—giving up 430 yards per contest. That number looks pretty good, however, when you consider that, in scoring defense, the Aggies were ranked 107th.

These dubious rankings were enough for the Aggies to jettison defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer (I'm not kidding),a guy who looked like the "time to make the donuts" guy and coached like him too, and bring in Joe Lee Dunn, a former Memphis D-coordinator, who worked wonders for the Tigers' D in the early 90's.

Dunn enjoyed (maybe that's too strong a word) stints in the SEC as well, bringing his defensive skillz to programs like Arkansas and Mississippi. Whether Dunn will be able to resurrect the Aggies' D remains to be seen, but expect some growing pains this year for the squad as they try to wrap their heads around his 3-3-5 defense.

If Dunn can turn the Aggie D around...the Aggies can make good strides—that is, until Holbrook and Williams graduate and the Aggies' one-dimensional offense stinks again.

Whuzzit mean?

Part of me really dislikes Hal Mumme (the part that comprises 99 percent of me)—so I'd like to see him get his sycophantic hieny kicked on a weekly basis. I love having coaches like Hal "the towel" in our conference because otherwise, it is really hard to get up for these layup games against the WAC bottom-feeders.

Chase Holbrook is a fringe NFL guy, and the Aggies certainly have some talent on offense...but until they abandon that gimmicky "Air Raid" offense and start playing some smashmouth football, they're going to continue to eke out three- and four-win seasons.

They get the Broncos in Las Cruces this year, so it should be a bit more interesting than the last tussle (wanna see this one more time?), but I think that the Crimson Aggies will only manage five wins this season against Nicholls State, UTEP, Idaho, La Tech and Utah State.

Sadly, this will be enough for Hal Mumme to stick around...but on the bright side, this will be enough for Hal Mumme to stick around.

In short, watching Aggie football is a lot like watching this commercial:

It hurts.