Cal Bears Football

Heading into the 2011 season, the California Golden Bears were a dark-horse pick to win the Pac-12 North and many thought that they could be the surprise team coming out of this division this year after many years of being a "middle of the pack" team under coach Jeff Tedford, who was supposed to bring the Golden Bears to national relevance. 

Though there have been times at which California has ascended the ranks (reaching as high as No. 3 in the AP poll in the 2009 season before being humiliated by the Oregon Ducks 42-3), Tedford has been highly unimpressive at California despite his hyped presence.

There is absolutely no doubt that the man is a great coach, he just has not found any luck at University of California-Berkeley, and part of that reason is because of increased and stiff competition throughout the Pac 10/12 thus far through his tenure at the university. 

Back to the 2011 season, the Bears (despite not playing all too impressive teams) started off 3-0 and were flying high heading into their "official"* Pac-12 opener against the dangerous Washington Huskies at a boisterous Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington.

And from the second the Bears touched the ball, it seemed as though they were back and would be one of the toughest teams to face play in the Pac-12 North this year, as Zach Maynard hooked up with a wide-open Keenan Allen who then proceeded to break a tackle en route to a 90-yard TD (the longest in school history) and a 7-0 lead early on in the first quarter. 

Around the Pac-12, coaches and fans watching this game thought: "Wow, Cal is actually for real." At least until the Huskies got the ball. It only took the Huskies three plays and 66 yards to even the game back up at 7-7, and this is what essentially defined this matchup. A back-and-forth shootout that would only be decided on the very last play of the game, which is exactly what happened.

With a 31-23 score hanging on the line as the Golden Bears marched down to the Husky goal line just as the final seconds came near, the Huskies had an impressive goal line stand where they did not allow another positive play as Maynard's last-second pass to Keenan Allen sailed out of the back of the end zone.

Though this may seem like an irrelevant game in the long run, the 31-23 loss to Washington really exhausted the Bears and sucked all of the momentum out of them that they desperately needed as they went on to play the mighty Oregon Ducks yet again on the road for their second game in a row.

And though Cal did hold onto a lead at halftime, the Ducks used an impressive offensive effort in the second half to completely stall California as they impressively won 43-15, mainly behind the 239 yards LaMichael James was able to put up against an exhausted California defense. 

After the loss to Oregon, California believed it could challenge a USC team with not much to play for, but completely stumbled as Maynard threw three interceptions and lost 30-9. 

In a span of less than one month, the Golden Bears went from being a threatening team in the Pac-12 to being at the bottom of the North Division with a 3-3 record (0-3 in the Pac-12).

So, though things may look bleak for Cal, can their 2011 campaign still be salvaged? Is there any hope for a Bears team that started off pretty well or are the Golden Bears doomed to sitting out of the college football postseason and find themselves searching for a new coach in the near future?

Despite losing their past three Pac-12 contests and establishing an even .500 record at 3-3, the simple answer is that Cal's season is not lost and that they can still accomplish a lot during their 2011 campaign, largely because of the way they have been playing this year on the offensive side of the ball and the fact that their remaining schedule isn't as threatening as their past few games have been.

The Bears will probably have one "guaranteed" loss in this schedule, but this still puts them at a fairly impressive 8-4 record with a 5-4 record in the Pac-12, which should easily put them into a bowl game at the end of the season.

Part of the reason why the Bears can rebound from their three-game slide is the play of Zach Maynard, who may be the conferences most underrated quarterback behind Keith Price of Washington.

To date, Maynard has thrown for over 200 yards in each of his games, eclipsing the 250-yard mark against Fresno State and USC, while also eclipsing the 300-yard mark with 349 yards in the Bears' losing effort to Washington.

Though he has made some mistakes this season (especially the three-interception game against USC), Maynard has been a fairly smart signal-caller for the Bears and has been able to produce efficient drives that have generally put points up on the board.

In fact, Maynard has been leading the Bears to the 14th best passing-attack in the nation, which throws for an average of 299.3 yards per game. 

The trouble for the Bears resides in both their usually strong running game as well as their fairly unimpressive defensive unit. Though they have rushed for an average of 137.2 yards per game (71st in the nation), they have consistently been stopped at the line resulting in more pressure being put upon Zach Maynard and the passing game.

Unlike in the past years with strong running backs, California does not really have a stand-out back in the backfield, which is mainly led by Isi Sofele. 

Another problem that has plagued the Bears' team this year is their defensive unit, especially their weak defensive backs unit. California's defense is giving up an average of 28.3 points per game (74th in the nation) and while they have the possibility and playmakers to stop opposing offenses, they keep on giving up big plays which eventually result in a very tired Bears' defense.

But although the Bears are pretty weak defensively, part of their struggles can be attributed to the fact that they have faced some impressive offenses as of late. All three of their losses have come to teams that are fairly impressive on the offensive side of the ball (especially Oregon and USC), and most teams' have struggled against those potent offenses.

However, the California defense will need to find an identity and a combination that works in their defensive back unit if they are to ever have a chance to win the day on the defensive side of the ball.

Going back to the positives heading into the second half of California's season is the fact that they have Keenan Allen in their wide receiver corps. Heavily recruited throughout his high school career, Allen ditched the Oregon Ducks to come to a California team that desperately needed a standout wide receiver, and he has been just that.

Allen has been giving defensive backs hell throughout the season and should be considered a candidate for the breakout player in the Pac-12 or at least the best wide receiver. If Keenan Allen is able to carry his impressive play into the second half of the season, he should be able to distract opposing defenses to give Cal's running game a little more cushion, thus opening up the California offense and creating new possibilities for a team that desperately needs them. With Allen in the game and healthy, California is a threat to score on every single play. 

One more thing to recognize about the Golden Bears is that they still have Tedford as their head coach, and despite being on the hot seat as of recent, Tedford is still a great college football coach and should be able to rally his team behind him and muster up an impressive second-half showing.

Though he was supposed to bring the Bears to new heights (and some may argue that he has), Tedford continues to lead the Bears to impressive, but not great, end-of-season records. Despite this fault about him, Tedford has the opportunity in front of him to build a team that can carry momentum from an impressive second half of the 2011 season into a possible breakout 2012 performance.

Games against Stanford and Arizona State will be difficult, but look for the Bears to have at least a 4-2 record in their last six games, thus salvaging what is now being considered a mediocre season as well as making a college football bowl appearance. 

Any time the USC Trojans and California Golden Bears meet up, it's bound to be a good football game.

This is the Pac-12 in its purest form, with two of the more prolific and historic programs meeting up.

While USC has been under NCAA sanctions for an improper benefits scandal, they are still one of the most well-known and respected football programs in the NCAA.

They come into this game a respectful 4-1, with their only blemish coming against a good ASU team.

Cal is 3-2 with two straight losses, the latter coming at the hands of Oregon, 43-15.

Any game within the conference is going to be a big deal, so I expect this to be a very serious endeavor between to good teams.

Where: AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA

When: Thursday Oct. 13. 9 P.M. EST

Watch: ESPN, ESPN3

Spread: USC by 3.5

USC should not have much problem handling this spread.

Over/Under: 58

This is a pretty high number—one that I wouldn't bet the over on, to be honest.

All Betting Information Courtesy of Bodog.com

What's At Stake:

Pride is always on the line whenever two Pac-12 schools meet up. California just got beat up by Oregon, and USC's only has one loss. Both teams have a lot to play for.

Key Injuries:

USC: Wide receiver Kyle Prater questionable (foot), tackle Martin Coleman questionable (shoulder), cornerback Torin Harris questionable (shoulder), linebacker Lamar Dawson questionable (ankle), quarterback Jesse Scroggins out indefinitely (thumb).

California: Quarterback Zach Maynard probable (thigh), tight end Spencer Ladner probable (knee), defensive back Marc Anthony doubtful (shoulder).

BCS/Top 25 Implications:

Not many implications to the big boys here, but that doesn't mean this game isn't important to the teams involved.

Keys to USC Win:

Quarterback Matt Barkley needs to control the ball, put up some points and lead his team. USC is clearly the better team in this matchup, so they need to control the tempo.

Keys to California Win:

Controlling the tempo is the key to this game on both sides. If Cal running back Isi Sofele can run the ball effectively, he can give the Golden Bears a chance.

Prediction:

This game shouldn't be a problem for the Trojans.

USC 34, California 17

It’s not the best Thursday night ESPN matchup of the season this week when two teams who may not even go bowling, USC and California, meet in a Pac-12 game. This one is at AT&T Park in San Francisco, home of the Giants (Cal’s stadium is undergoing renovations).

It’s a rare second straight Thursday game for the Bears, who were beaten 43-15 last week at Oregon to fall to 3-2 overall and 0-2 in the Pac-12—and one of those wins is over an FCS school. The Bears were playing the Ducks tough for a half, leading 15-14 at the intermission, before LaMichael James and Co. took over. Cal isn’t going to be a factor in the Pac-12 race but the Bears might have changed the course of the conference by dislocating James’ elbow in that game. It’s still not clear how long the Heisman Trophy candidate will be out.

The Trojans (4-1, 2-1), who are ineligible for any postseason play again this year, haven’t played since a 48-41 win over Arizona on Oct. 1. Matt Barkley blew up in that game, passing for a school-record 468 yards and four touchdowns. And Robert Woods, the best receiver in the country not named Justin Blackmon, had 14 catches for 255 yards and two scores. He’s got a ridiculous 55 catches already, which leads the nation, and is No. 2 in the country in averaging 149.4 yards per game. However, that Trojan defense has had some problems in the second half of games this season and Arizona scored 29 second-half points and put up 554 total yards.

USC at Cal Betting Storylines

The Bears suffered one key injury in last week’s loss, with top cornerback Marc Anthony leaving the game early with a shoulder injury. He’s not likely to play Thursday, meaning true freshman Stefan McClure gets the start. Think the Trojans may target him with Woods? The Cal pass defense has been ‘iffy’ as it is (the run defense has been solid other than vs. the Ducks).

Outside of allowing just 28 yards passing against Presbyterian, California has given up 964 passing yards to Colorado, Washington and Oregon, with nine touchdowns against one interception. Oregon’s Darron Thomas threw all three of his touchdown passes in the second half when the Ducks consistently beat the Bears in man coverage with Anthony out. McClure was the guy beaten at least a handful of times.

The Trojans have become a pass-happy team. USC has attempted 189 passes versus 158 rushes. The Trojans have scored 14 receiving touchdowns, compared with four running touchdowns. Coach Lane Kiffin says he wants more balance.

Cal QB Zach Maynard, a transfer from Buffalo, has thrown for 1,291 yards and an 11-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But his accuracy has been an issue, as he is completing only slightly more than 50 percent of his passes. On defense, the USC secondary might also be missing a key piece. USC's pass defense struggled against Arizona, yielding 425 yards and four touchdowns to Nick Foles and Co. The Trojans were without starting cornerback Torin Harris in that game, and he’s questionable for this one. Cal has a receiver almost as good as Woods in Keenan Allen, who has 39 catches for 668 yards and four scores. The Trojans have yielded 10 TD passes and grabbed just three interceptions. They rank ninth in the Pac-12 in pass-efficiency defense, with opponents completing 66 percent of their throws.

If the game is close at the end, that could benefit Cal. Giorgio Tavecchio is one of the top kickers in the conference and gives California a weapon from more than 50 yards away. This season he has connected on eight of nine attempts, with a long of 54 yards.

USC at Cal Betting Odds and Trends

USC is currently a three-point favorite, according to college football odds, with the total at 55.5 (USC is -160 on the moneyline). The lean is about 66 percent on the Trojans. They are 2-3 ATS this season and 0-1 ATS on the road. Cal is 2-3 ATS this season and 2-0 at home (but, again, those were neutral-site homes games in the Bay Area – one at Candlestick and one at AT&T Park).

Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road. Cal is 0-5 ATS in its past five conference games. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Trojans’ past five following an ATS loss. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in Cal’s past five as a dog. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the past seven meetings. USC is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

College Football Predictions: USC at Cal Betting Picks

USC owns a seven-game winning streak over the Golden Bears and Cal has averaged just 10 points in each of those losses. In the past three meetings, USC has won by a combined score of 95-20. Last year, the Trojans led 42-0 at halftime on the way to a 48-14 win. I simply don’t see either team stopping the other here and the weather report looks clear. Cal just doesn’t have the athletes that the Trojans do. Take USC and the ‘over’.

Doc Moseman is the owner of Doc’s Sports football picks Web site.

The California Golden Bears take on college football's fallen angel, the USC Trojans, on Thursday evening at San Francisco's AT&T Park.  Will the Bears be able to exploit Southern Cal's lack of rushing attack and lack of pass defense?

While Cal has shown the ability to be productive on offense, it's limited by the play of its quarterback Zach Maynard who has a mere 50 percent completion rate.  The passing game is 19th in the nation averaging 300 yards per game, but those numbers are padded by a lopsided victory over football subdivision program Presbyterian. 

The Bears have been strong in their victories and in most losses, though a Top 10 Oregon Ducks squad was clearly too much for Cal in all facets of the game. 

However, focusing on Cal's other performance, one may notice that the strength of the Bears' overall performance has been due in large part to its remarkable receiving duo of Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones.  Together, the tandem ranks atop the Pac-12 in receiving production with Allen ranked 6th nationally with 668 yards and four touchdowns through five games. 

If the Bears can find a consistent passing attack against USC's secondary, look for the Bears to control the clock with a complementary running game on the back of the 5'8", 190 lb tailback Isi Sofele while the Trojans defense is in disarray.  Fortunately, USC's secondary is abysmal against the pass, ranking 98th nationally, so a solid game by Maynard would make controlling the clock a highly probable scenario. 

While the Trojans have not struggled to score this season, they have struggled to defeat teams who populate the bottom tier of college football, including an awful Minnesota Golden Gophers team and a one win against Arizona Wildcats, who just fired its coach. 

The Trojans have struggled to establish the explosive ground game USC fans are so accustomed to, let alone an effective ground game at all behind Mark Tyler.  USC will have to find ways to score against a Cal defense that's tallied 15 sacks, so far, on the season.

Don't discount Lane Kiffin, though.  When backed into a corner, Kiffin will resort to aggressive trickery to gain the advantage against a superior opponent.  An aggressive, but disciplined Bears defense will be necessary to avoid being susceptible to Kiffin's backyard style of football.

While Cal is by no means without its flaws, finding ways to pressure USC's quarterback Matt Barkley, who has a 70 percent completion rate through five games, will certainly lead to mistakes and is imperative if the Bears seek victory.  More so, Cal must double team star receiver, Robert Woods, who is the nation's third leading receiver.  Preventing Barkley and Woods from finding a rhythm should give the Cal offense enough assistance to outscore the Trojans by the end of the contest.

If the Golden Bears can exploit a USC team that is weak against the pass and weak establishing the run, expect Cal to attain a thrilling, but sound victory over the Trojans before heading to Utah on Oct. 22.

USC Trojans 35, Cal Golden Bears 48.

After seeing them lose to LSU 40-27 way back on Sept. 3, one can be excused for thinking the Oregon Ducks might not be as dominant this year as they were in 2010.

It turns out that any and all rumors of Oregon's demise were greatly exaggerated. The Ducks have been on a tear since losing to LSU, racing to a 3-1 record and reclaiming a spot in the AP Top 10 at No. 9. Along the way, the Ducks have reestablished themselves as the most dangerous offensive team in the country.

On Thursday night, the Ducks will take aim at the Cal Bears, who come into tonight's contest at Autzen Stadium with a healthy (albeit not overly impressive) 3-1 record.

The last trip the Bears took to Eugene didn't pan out so well. That was back in 2009, and the Ducks dominated them from the get-go on their way to a 42-3 victory.

Maybe that's why the oddsmakers decided to give the Bears virtually no shot of winning tonight's contest, as the spread (according to Bodog) has Oregon favored by 24.5 points.

Compared to the spreads we're used to seeing attached to Oregon's games, 24.5 points is actually a pretty flattering gesture towards the Bears. It implies they may be about to lose, but at least they'll keep it respectable.

Well, maybe I'm just a Cal homer (I am), but I actually think the Bears are going to keep it closer than the spread would indicate. They'll get beat, but they're not going to make it easy for the Ducks.

As invincible as Oregon seems at times, they can beaten if you can limit LaMichael James and the Ducks' rushing attack. This is definitely akin to saying "hold out hand, stop bullet," but it can be done. Just ask LSU, which held the Ducks to 95 yards on 28 carries back in early September.

Do the Bears have a front seven on the same level as LSU's? Goodness gracious, no. I do, however, think the Bears deserve some credit for the work they've done against the run so far this season. In the Pac-12, only Stanford has given up fewer rushing yards than Cal has. To boot, the Bears were last seen limiting Chris Polk, a very good running back, to 60 yards on 20 carries.

As strange as it may sound, I'm more worried about Darron Thomas lighting the Bears up in the passing game. Colorado and Washington were both able to pass on the Bears with ease, and one assumes that Chip Kelly was able to notice as much during his team's week off.

Well, there's only so much the Bears are going to be able to do about that. One of those things would be to keep pace with their own offense, which is halfway decent. Zach Maynard has been far from perfect, but he's definitely been better than Kevin Riley and Nate Longshore. He also seems to have a very good rapport with both Marvin Jones and Keenan Allen, the latter of whom is his half brother.

Yes, the Ducks do have good numbers against the pass, but many of them were compiled against lesser quarterbacks. A good quarterback (i.e. Arizona's Nick Foles) should be able to beat them.

At the end of the day, I think the magic number for Cal will be 40. If the Bears can keep the Ducks close to 40 points, they're going to have just enough offense to beat the spread. It's not a win, but one can think of worse consolation prizes.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Cal 21