Cal Bears Football

The University of California has acknowledged its negligence in the 2014 death of defensive end Ted Agu. 

According to Kimberly Veklerov of the San Francisco Chronicle, Cal made its admission following testimony in a lawsuit filed by Agu's parents:

The admission comes after testimony in a lawsuit brought by Agu’s parents raised questions about the actions of Cal football personnel in the events that preceded his death. The testimony, given in confidential depositions, also detailed allegations that campus officials did not provide the Alameda County coroner’s office with all police and medical records after Agu died, including some that indicated he had sickle cell trait — a blood abnormality that experts believe can lead to death under extreme exertion.

Agu died Feb. 7, 2014, after collapsing during a training run outside California Memorial Stadium where the Golden Bears play their home games. 

Cal team physician Dr. Casey Batten told Josh Dubow of the Associated Press there didn't appear to be anything wrong with Agu after he was placed on a cart into the stadium: "He was on the back of the cart, he was talking, he was hydrating, he did not exhibit any labored breathing or other signs until he got to the north tunnel."  

In April 2014, per Henry K. Lee of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Alameda County coroner's office announced Agu died from the heart condition known as "hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, or excessive thickening of the heart muscle."

Veklerov noted Cal's admission "does not necessarily signal a settlement," with one of Agu's parents' attorneys, Steve Yerrid, saying "there needs to be reform and meaningful change" as a result of his passing and the circumstances surrounding it. 

Not only will the California Golden Bears have to replace their starting quarterback, Jared Goff, they're also losing one of their best wide receivers after Kenny Lawler confirmed he's entering the NFL draft.

Lawler announced his decision on Twitter Tuesday night.

"Making this decision has not been easy as I have had so many great experiences and I have built so many terrific relationships and friendships at Cal," he wrote in his statement. "The last four years of my life have been incredible and I wouldn't be in the position I am today without the support from all of you!"

Golden Bears head coach Sonny Dykes also praised Lawler for his work at Cal, per Kyle Bonagura of ESPN.com:

Sonny Dykes' statement on Kenny Lawler's decision to enter the draft. pic.twitter.com/vk0g9fT5pO

— Kyle Bonagura (@BonaguraESPN) January 5, 2016

Cal's offense will look a lot different in 2016. As expected, Goff threw his name into the 2016 draft, and wideouts Bryce Treggs and Trevor Davis are both seniors. Dykes is a bright offensive mind, but he'll have a hard time repeating the team's success from this past season.

The departure of Goff likely played a big role in Lawler's decision, but it's still somewhat of a surprise to see him leave college early. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller didn't list Lawler among his top 100 prospects in his most recent big board, and in his section highlighting the top wideouts, Miller considered Lawler his "biggest faller." CBS Sports projects Lawler as a second- or third-round pick.

With a strong senior season, Lawler might have boosted his draft stock a bit. Still, he could easily be a Day 2 selection, and his impressive athleticism is bound to impress NFL personnel during Cal's pro day and the scouting combine.

Finding a franchise quarterback in the NFL draft is one of the most difficult tasks that general managers must do. The draft is an inexact science to begin with, and the margin for error at the most important position makes evaluating college football quarterbacks incredibly difficult. Some draft classes offer zero potentially franchise signal-callers, while others may have a handful.

The 2016 class is shaping up to be deep with developmental talent at quarterback but short on potentially elite players. There is one who clearly outplayed his competition this season and has the ability to be a top-10 NFL quarterback. California Football quarterback Jared Goff is the next franchise quarterback to emerge in recent years.

While I’m defining a franchise quarterback as a top-15 player at the position, an elite quarterback is one of the top handful. The ascension into an elite quarterback is randomly based on their draft status and where they came from.

Guys like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Tony Romo certainly lacked the pedigree of an elite quarterback, while Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers fit the bill. Thus, my expectation is never for a quarterback to become one of the very best in the world at their profession.

After watching every snap of Cal’s offense in the 2015 season, Goff thoroughly impressed me with his advanced passing prowess. This article will break down and explain why he is clearly the top quarterback in the class. It will also cover in which areas he can improve as he transitions to the NFL.

Let’s start with a broader view of who Goff is as a player and then narrow down the impressive traits that make him special.

Who is Jared Goff?

Goff was a four-star, pocket-passing quarterback recruit out of Marin Catholic High School in 2013. He had a 6’4”, 205-pound lanky frame, according to Bleacher Report's Matt Miller. He’s gained around 30 pounds in the 18 or so months since he had surgery for a separated shoulder injury in late 2013.

Goff is still tall and appears skinny like Teddy Bridgewater did, coming out of Louisville in 2014. But his work in the weight room is apparent and shows his dedication to improvement. As his body continues to mature, expect more bulk to be added to his frame.

Matt Miller had this to say about Goff after speaking with scouts familiar with the Cal product:

Goff is a smart, analytical film nerd and it shows on the field. A three-year starter, he's developed well in the Bear Raid offense (a progression-based offense featuring plenty of run/pass options and largely based on downfield throws). Goff loves the game and spends his time off the field immersed in football.

This is a ringing endorsement for Goff’s character and football intelligence. He continually made strides in what he can do at the line of scrimmage for Cal in three seasons. His improvement is as evident statistically as it is on tape.

Despite working with a very limited supporting cast, Goff’s numbers have continued to improve. As he took on more responsibility, the offense improved. Take a look at his numbers below.

Year	Completions	Attempts	Completion Percent	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TDs	INTs
2013	320	530	60.4	3,508	6.6	18	10
2014	316	509	62.1	3,973	7.8	35	7
2015	341	529	645.	4,714	8.9	43	13

The only area where Goff did not improve was in his interceptions total. We’ll get into that a little later, but it’s not necessarily a red flag. One thing we certainly know is the Cal coaching staff fully trusted Goff by the time he was a junior, according to Sean Wagner-McGough of CBS Sports:

"I trust him with my job," Cal offensive coordinator Tony Franklin said. "When you're letting a guy do that, then you're putting it all in his hands."

For the first time in his career, Goff can change anything and everything he wants at the line of scrimmage. From routes to the protection scheme, he can call whatever he wants.

Goff had control of everything from read-option plays to improvising on routes with receivers. He even had some protection schemes. His mental advancement from a spread system isn’t the same as your typical spread-system quarterback that just reads the pre-snap look and makes the call with little information. He’s already much more than that.

A captain for two consecutive seasons, Goff has a pedigree and background that should satisfy NFL teams. While the Bears’ 14-23 record with Goff is unimpressive, this program was 1-11 in Goff’s first years, and the defense allowed over 30 points per game all three years. This was a program severely lacking defensive talent during Goff’s tenure.

On-field progression

Goff’s off-field improvement from his sophomore to junior seasons was noticeable, and so was his on-field play. While he flashed the ability to make jaw-dropping throws, his lack of bulk really made him seem like a younger player. Below is an example of a terrific throw in Goff’s sophomore year.

It’s that throw that really put Goff on the top of my must-watch list, entering this season. As 2015 unfolded, Goff continued to make Sunday-level plays. Everything from reading a defense to his ability to extend plays improved. We’ll look at his ability to extend plays later, but let’s focus on the nuance of Goff’s passing ability.

The first thing to mention is Goff’s exquisite footwork. Similar to Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, Goff chops his feet while he progresses through his reads. This allows him to stay balanced when pressure enters the pocket and also keeps his passing motion ready to go on a moment’s notice. Here is an example:

Goff not only sees three receivers on this play, but he is physically ready to release the ball. While manipulating defenders with the eyes is an effective method, actually sweeping his body with his eyes is extremely advanced to even see at the NFL level.

Also notable in this clip is the timing and zip of the pass. Goff delivers the pass to the outside shoulder of his tight end, where the closing safety cannot reach. This placement helps convert the first down and protects his receiver from being walloped by the tackler.

We see this type of pocket movement often from Goff. He is incredibly comfortable amongst chaos in his surrounding areas. He feels pressure better than most young quarterbacks, moving up and around the pocket while keeping his eyes up. See below for a tremendous example against Washington.

Goff works through to his third read while the defensive tackle quickly bears down on him. His efficient feet make everything possible, and his ability to hang in despite pressure is frustrating for a defense. He’s able to win by cutting to death a thousand times, or going for the jugular in one play.

This is an area that separates quarterback prospects from being the next Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston (two very good prospects) as opposed to Geno Smith, Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert. The confidence, poise and natural feel for the pocket is incredibly valuable. An elite quarterback, let alone a franchise quarterback, is able to deliver a catchable pass in the face of pressure or consistently extend plays to buy time.

Goff certainly does so from the pocket consistently.

While Goff shows a slight hitch in his throwing motion, he is consistently quick in releasing the ball. He has great arm strength while working in stride, in which a vast majority of his passes take place. This comes back to his footwork. He’s put in the work to create a repeatable motion. You won’t hear about Goff needing to work with a quarterback guru to fix any of his passing mechanics.

Accuracy to all levels

One reason I chose to watch all of the top quarterbacks’ snaps in 2015 was to compare what types of throws they were attempting and see in which areas they excelled or struggled. To help quantify what I saw, I created accuracy charts that track catchable passes. Any pass that I found to be reasonably catchable was chalked up as accurate.

This means that some completions were also marked as inaccurate. If a pass required a diving, one-handed grab, or the ball bounces off a defender, then it was not deemed reasonably catchable. The quarterback shouldn’t be rewarded for luck or just a tremendous play by the receiver.

With that out of the way, take a look at Goff’s accuracy chart below. I didn’t include throwaways or shovel passes in the formula. Most notable is that he delivered a catchable pass on a whopping 77% of his passes, and 49 of them were dropped.

Jared Goff's full accuracy chart in 2015 pic.twitter.com/0AKhMHpPv3

— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) December 31, 2015

I have the data available for his peers as well. Goff was easily the most accurate passer between Paxton Lynch, Connor Cook and Carson Wentz. That data is here.

One accuracy number doesn’t encompass everything, but it helps show where a player is performing well. Goff is not only efficient on short and intermediate passes, but he is deadly on deep-ball throws. His ability to drop the ball into a bucket is actually his biggest strength.

In Cal’s 2015 bowl game against Air Force, Goff had a career game. One of his best throws of the day was his deep pass to Bryce Treggs that traveled almost 60 yards in the air. This ball reached Treggs perfectly in stride, while Goff was clobbered as soon as he let go of the pass.

While deep passes are less efficient than passes under 15 yards, they’re important to use to keep the defense off balance. Goff uses his eyes at times, but is crafty enough to use a pump fake on the throw below.

Every bit of time the quarterback can buy for his offensive line to block, for his wide receivers to get open or for himself to execute his roll is invaluable. Goff’s willingness to take a hit is also important, as he’s somewhat likely to go to a bad team that cannot adequately protect him in his first few seasons. His toughness and ability to stay healthy is another positive trait.

The hardest throw to make is the hash mark to far sideline throw. It requires timing, arm strength and velocity. Goff sometimes lacks the velocity on these throws when he is out of rhythm, but we have enough examples throughout 2015 that suggest he can make this throw consistently in the NFL. Remember, the NFL’s hash marks aren’t nearly as wide, so the ball travels less distance than in college.

On deep outs and comebacks, Goff can be a reliable passer. These passes are risky in nature. If the cornerback plays it correctly, the throw can be an easy interception. But Goff has hit this throw in college, and should continue to be successful as he adds bulk in to NFL.

Although the next throw is on the short side of the field, it still highlights excellent accuracy from Goff. He gets the ball out quickly and with plenty of zip. Only his receiver can catch this ball on the back-shoulder fade.

The defender is helpless.

These throws are critical when the offense needs points. When paired with a dominating receiver, Goff can be unstoppable so long as he is throwing such well-placed sideline throws.

Winning outside the pocket

What really makes the top quarterbacks in the NFL special is their ability to avoid the pass rush to extend plays. By either moving within the pocket or rolling out completely, receivers have more time to force an error by their defender.

Whether it be Tom Brady, Manning, Brees, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, these are players who are incredibly good when pressured.

Goff has not only flashed the ability to stand tall when defenders close on him, but many of his best throws come on broken plays. This is the top reason he should be viewed as a franchise quarterback.

On one hand, it is a shame the Cal offensive line was so porous because it subjected Goff to many hits. But it forced him to be instinctive and resilient or flounder. As seen above, where he shakes off NFL prospect Hassan Ridgeway from Texas, he can create touchdowns from would-be sacks.

Whether facing average teams or top competition, Goff showed the ability to be a playmaker at the quarterback position. He’s a good-enough athlete to scramble and gain yards, but he is far from dependent on his legs. He’s at his most dangerous state while running with his eyes up.

Arguably, Goff’s worst performance of the season came at Oregon. Cal’s offense was simply overmatched, and Goff had his struggles as well. But that didn’t mean he had a bad game or that we didn’t see strokes of brilliance painted in between the rougher edges.

Below is a third-down play in which Goff avoids two rushers, then delivers a strike for a conversion:

Let’s break down what exactly happened during those six seconds.

The left guard immediately gave up inside-shoulder penetration, which is the most direct route to the quarterback. Goff doesn’t overcompensate with his movement, which would have led to a sack from the right defensive end. Instead, he fills the lane and dodges a second rusher. After all of that, he draws inside linebacker Joe Walker closer to his body to ensure he has a passing window to Kenny Lawler.

This type of athleticism and suddenness is rare to find. He’s not the fastest player, but he tends to see things before they happen. One extra step in any direction and he would have been sacked by any of the four Oregon defenders he avoided.

Against Stanford, Goff did it again. His first read is the corner route on the strong side of the field. He rolls to his right but quickly finds his man isn’t open. He creates some pressure for himself because he moves the pocket, but he quickly atones for his mistake.

As he drifts back to the center of the tackle box, he notices his receivers are moving to the open field. He improvises and rolls to the left hash mark to find his wide-open man. He hits him in stride after squaring his shoulders, moving the chains for a first down. Goff never seemed out of control and didn’t lose his composure when his first read was smothered.

The most impressive play of Goff’s season came on the game-winning drive against Arizona State. Goff and the Cal offense needed a field goal to win, with less than two minutes on the clock. On 1st-and-10, Goff hit his tight end, who drifted free after Goff survived for ten seconds.

This is ridiculous by Goff on a pressure play to set up a winning field goal pic.twitter.com/UkXhbPcGRp

— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) November 29, 2015

Goff originally tried to move up in the pocket when it was closing rapidly but found a defensive tackle lurking. He then bounces outside, which cuts off the angle from the closing end. He finds space and breaks two tacklers. He then adjusts his arm angle to quickly rifle the ball out to his open receiver.

These are the types of plays that made Tony Romo and Rodgers elite players. The pressure was on, and the big play was made. The Bears ended up winning after a subsequent throw got them safely into field-goal range.

Where he can improve

As much as Goff impresses fans, he has areas to improve as well. The same can be said for every quarterback. But Goff’s areas to improve may turn off potential suitors just like the 31 teams that passed on Teddy Bridgewater in 2014.

Goff’s frame is slight, and although he survived the Pac-12, he needs to add more bulk before playing in the NFL. Ideally, he would have the opportunity to sit and mature during his first year. While Rodgers had the benefit of sitting three years, his body changed from the time he entered as a 22-year old rookie until he was named the starter as a 25-year old.

Adding weight will not only help the odds of Goff staying healthy, but it will also his arm to fill out. He has a solid arm, but when he is out of rhythm, he can lack velocity on his throws. A stronger upper body and core can certainly help this.

As far as traits go, Goff is a gunslinger at times. Like Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt, Goff didn’t have much help around him on the Cal roster sans a couple of players. He sometimes pressed too much with this in mind and tried to carry the team. That’s not a good thing, and he forced some bad interceptions against Utah, USC and Oregon, specifically.

Goff recovered from the Utah and Oregon games with a tremendous six-game stretch to finish his Cal career. Teams want some sort of risk-taking from the quarterback, especially the willingness to test tight windows and allow playmakers to be do their thing at the catch point. But there’s a very fine line between what great quarterbacks do, and what bad quarterbacks consistently do.

Goff’s five-interception game vs. Utah was eye-opening, but only two of the interceptions were directly his fault. Three others came from either drops or tipped passes. Still, whether he can excel when the speed and size of defenders increases is a question.

He’ll see more responsibility in terms of huddling, assigning protection duties, calling audibles and working under center a little more often. Those are normal transitions for most of the quarterbacks that have entered the NFL in the last five years. We cannot assume that Goff will fall into even a great situation where patience will be afforded to him while he learns and adjusts to a different, possibly more difficult, playbook.

Transitioning from the Bear Raid offense will bring some challenges, but a good offensive coordinator will bring some of those concepts to the playbook. We know that Goff excels on downfield throws, so working in a vertical offense can limit immediate transition issues.

Projection

People love comparisons, but Goff is a difficult one to peg because he blends many styles together. His ability to extend plays but also occasional recklessness draws visions of Romo. His throwing motion and ability to drop the ball into tight windows remind me of Derek Carr. He has the frame of Matt Ryan.

Goff’s talent level is significantly higher than anyone else’s in the class, not only right now but also projecting forward. He wins with intangibles in the pocket and has the physical tools to match what his mind processes. There are risks with drafting Goff. Every quarterback has a “bust” factor, but the lack of great quarterback play across the league should have teams willing to invest into him.

I think Goff will fall into the middle of the first round because teams will be worried about his frame and experience with the spread offense. Those same knocks didn’t stop Bridgewater or Mariota from having excellent campaigns early in their careers.

Who transcends from a franchise quarterback is very difficult, if not impossible, to tell. At his worst, Goff could be a Sam Bradford- or Matt Ryan-type quarterback. If Bradford had stayed healthy, and if we’re talking about the pre-2015 version of Ryan, that level of quarterback is certainly worth a top-five investment.

Teams that Goff would fit perfectly on from a need and personnel standpoint would be the Cleveland Browns, the Dallas Cowboys, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, the San Francisco 49ers and the New Orleans Saints. A team that could provide an older quarterback who can mentor Goff and bridge the gap for one year would be ideal. The potential pairing with Sean Payton, wherever he coaches, is particularly intriguing.

Unless otherwise specified, all stats used are courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @NFLFilmStudy

California Golden Bears quarterback Jared Goff repeatedly flashed his pro potential in the program's Bear Raid scheme over the past three seasons, so it shouldn't come as a surprise the junior has decided to declare for the 2016 NFL draft.   

Goff made the decision official Thursday after ESPN.com's Joe Schad first reported Goff intended to enter his name in spring's selection process. 

The three-year starter posted gaudy numbers every season of his collegiate tenure, which was highlighted by a strong junior campaign. 

A year after completing 62.1 percent of his passes for 3,973 yards, 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions as a sophomore, Goff exploded for 4,719 yards, 43 touchdowns and 13 interceptions as the Golden Bears went 8-5 after opening the season with five straight wins and rising as high as No. 23 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll. 

"You have to get a calculator with Goff’s numbers," Stanford head coach David Shaw said, according to the Bay Area News Group's Jeff Faraudo. "He’s awesome. He’s tall, he’s long. He has a quick release. He can paint the sidelines from the far hash. That’s big-time."

Based on Goff's game tape, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller was most impressed with the signal-caller's ability to make NFL-caliber throws while showing off a skill set including stellar accuracy on intermediate concepts. 

"Goff puts the ball on the correct shoulder when throwing down the field and won't lead his receivers into traffic," Miller wrote. "He understands touch and anticipation. His arm is strong enough to throw the 15-yard-out on a line, to thread the ball into tight windows on underneath routes and throw 50-yard bombs such as he did against San Diego State." 

Miller ultimately compared Goff to New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning because "he has picturesque footwork in the pocket, aggressive downfield vision and the arm to make every throw in the playbook."

Based on rave reviews, Goff should enter February's NFL Scouting Combine as one of the most coveted draft prospects around.

With quarterback-needy teams like the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers lurking near the top of the draft board, it wouldn't be surprising to see the 21-year-old selected inside the top 15 as he gets set to embark on a prosperous professional career. 

If this is Jared Goff's final season in college, the California Golden Bears star quarterback closed out his FBS career in historic fashion, setting the Pac-12 records for most passing yards and passing touchdowns in a single season.   

With his sixth TD against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl on Tuesday, Goff increased his season total to 43, moving him ahead of Marcus Mariota, per Cal Football. The record-breaking score came on a 25-yard pass to wide receiver Kenny Lawler with 17 seconds left in the third quarter.

Goff finished with well over 400 yards through the air in the 55-36 win:

	Comp/Att	Comp. %	Yards	TD	INT
Armed Forces Bowl	25/37	67.6	467	6	0
Final 2015 Stats	341/529	64.5	4,719	43	13

Sean Mannion owned the previous Pac-12 mark, recording 4,662 yards in 2013. The Bay Area News Group's Jeff Faraudo noted Goff's accomplishment on Twitter.

Goff has wreaked havoc on the Falcons secondary all game in what is one of his best performances of the season. His heave to receiver Bryce Treggs for a 30-yard touchdown in particular was a thing of beauty, per Pac-12 Networks:

Goff = #DimeSauce.

Bears lead, 14-7, in the #ArmedForcesBowl on ESPN! https://t.co/Ze3QnR5txV

— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) December 29, 2015

Avinash Kunnath of SB Nation's Pacific Takes also complimented the Cal defense for its role in Goff's big day:

Nice job by Cal defense ensuring Jared Goff plays the rest of this game to break more records.

— Avinash Kunnath (@avinashkunnath) December 29, 2015

Goff has yet to confirm one way or the other whether he'll skip his senior season and enter this spring's NFL draft. Since he's one of the top quarterbacks in the 2016 draft class, many expect him to make the jump shortly after the conclusion of Tuesday's game.

Plenty of NFL scouts were surely in attendance in Fort Worth, Texas, to see Goff live, and even more were watching the game at home. Goff could've done little else in the Armed Forces Bowl to solidify his draft stock going forward.

The ground-oriented Falcons of Air Force are 3-2 outright and 4-1 against the spread in their last five bowl appearances, and they take aim at a Big 5 foe when they take on the pass-happy Cal Bears in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Armed Forces Bowl point spread: Golden Bears opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 42.7-28.8 Falcons

Why the Golden Bears can cover the spread

Led by a future first-round draft pick at quarterback in Jared Goff, Cal opened this season 5-0, and 2-0 in Pac-12 play. The Bears then hit a skid and lost four in a row, including a six-point decision at Utah in which Goff threw five interceptions, and a six-point decision to eventual West Division champion USC. But Cal then put up 54 points in a win over Oregon State, lost the Big Game at Stanford but rallied to win a wild one over Arizona State 48-46 in the season finale to finish 7-5.

The Bears trailed the Sun Devils 24-3 midway through the second quarter, took their first lead early in the fourth quarter at 37-36, then later drove 69 yards in the last two minutes to set up the game-winning field goal as time ran out.

For the season, Cal ranks eighth in the country in total offense while averaging 37 points per game. The Bears are also 4-3 ATS when favored this season, and 3-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Air Force only started this season 3-3, although two of those losses came against eventual Big Ten champion Michigan State and a very good Navy team. But the Falcons then won five in a row, including an upset of Boise State in Boise, earning a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game. There, playing on San Diego State's home field, Air Force battled the Aztecs to a tie game through 55 minutes before falling 27-24.

So the Falcons finished 8-5 overall, 6-3 in MWC action and 9-4 ATS. They're also 4-1 ATS this season as underdogs, after covering the four points in that conference title tilt.

Air Force, as always, likes to move the ball on the ground, and they did so with great efficiency again this season, ranking second in the nation in rushing at 322 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Falcons defense held six out of 12 opponents to 17 points or less.

Smart pick

Cal likes to throw the ball, but Air Force likes to run it, and usually the team that controls the clock has success in these types of matchups. That's why the smart play here is with the Falcons, plus the points.

Betting trends

Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.

The total has gone over in seven of California's last nine bowl games.

The total has gone under in four of the last five Armed Forces Bowls.

The underdog is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six Armed Forces Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

The Sonny Dykes era at Cal will continue for four more seasons. The university agreed to a contract extension with its football coach Thursday despite Dykes posting a 13-23 record over his first three seasons.

Jeff Faraudo of the Bay Area News Group reported the deal is worth $2.85 million per season through 2019, with a $3 million salary pool for assistant coaches. 

Dykes, 46, led the Golden Bears to a 7-5 record and their first bowl berth since 2011 this season. After nosediving to a 1-11 record in his first season, Dykes has improved Cal's record each of the subsequent two years. That improvement led to satisfaction within the athletic department but not necessarily with Dykes, who was reportedly growing unhappy.

He was under contract for two more seasons beyond 2015, but "the academic restrictions [at Cal] and contract issue all [played] into rumblings in the industry that Dykes would be open to other jobs," Dan Wolken of USA Today told Avinash Kunnath of SB Nation's California Golden Blogs.

Missouri interviewed Dykes for its vacant coaching position, according to ESPN's Kyle Bonagura, but he left Columbia without a contract. He was one of a number of candidates the Tigers were considering to replace Gary Pinkel, who left his post because of lymphoma. Dieter Kurtenbach of KNBR also painted a scary picture for Cal alums hopeful Dykes would stay:     

https://twitter.com/dkurtenbach/status/671818335374348288

Not long after those reports surfaced, Cal announced it had engaged Dykes on contract-extension talks.

“Sonny has my full confidence and it is our intention to keep him here. Three years ago, he took over a program that was not in a good place and in need of significant turnaround and improvement in many areas. Since then, Sonny has done everything we have asked of him,” said Cal athletic director Mike Williams in a statement, per Michelle Lee of the Daily Californian.

While Dykes has improved the program, things might be taking a step back in 2016. Star quarterback Jeff Goff is widely expected to enter the NFL draft, where he'll almost certainly be a first-round pick. The Bears also have a number of solid veteran leaders who are running out of eligibility. 

"We're going to lose some good players (after this season), but we're going to replace them with some good players," Dykes said, per Jeff Faraudo of the Mercury News. "Our young guys are good. We're recruiting well. I'm excited about the future."

The Bears' willingness to sign Dykes to an extension signals they're optimistic he's the right man for the job.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.

The NCAA is running into problems finding enough bowl-eligible teams for each and every one of the 40 bowl games ahead in the coming weeks. The California Golden Bears are doing their part to ease the NCAA's burden.

According to USA Today's Steve Berkowitz, Cal was asking the NCAA Football Oversight Committee to count its 73-14 victory over Grambling State toward the win total necessary for bowl eligibility. Berkowitz explained why the Golden Bears may needed the NCAA to make an exception in this case:

Under NCAA rules, FBS schools generally can count one win against an FCS team per season toward the six needed for bowl eligibility. However, for the game to count without a waiver, the FCS school needs to have awarded — on average — at least 90% of the 63 scholarships allowed under FCS rules during a rolling two-year period.

[...]

Grambling officials have not yet determined whether that was the case, [Cal athletics spokesman Wes Mallette] said.

On Wednesday, Jon Wilner of the Mercury News reported the win vs. Grambling will count.

The Golden Bears have one more game left in the season. They play Arizona State on Saturday, and a win over the Sun Devils would give Cal the adequate number of victories to qualify for bowl season.

According to CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd, only 71 teams meet bowl qualifications heading into Week 13, leaving nine spots open. Considering more than half of the FBS teams reach bowl games, it only makes sense the supply would fail to meet the demand.

College football fans love watching more college football, but bowl season may have grown to an extent it dilutes the on-field product. Bowl games featuring 5-7 or even 6-6 teams aren't going to draw a ton of national interest.   

At least in the case of Cal, one more game will allow fans to get what is likely the last look at quarterback Jared Goff—whom many expect to leave college early and enter the 2016 NFL draft—at the college level.

The Cal Bears aren't known for their success on the road, but they are 3-2 straight up and 5-0 against the spread over their last five Pac-12 road contests. Cal is in for a good test this week when it visits Utah for homecoming in Salt Lake City on Saturday night.

Point spread: The Utes opened as seven-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.5-23.5 Golden Bears

Why the California Golden Bears can cover the spread

At 5-0, Cal is off to its best start since 2007 following last week's 34-28 come-from-behind victory over Washington State. The Bears trailed 21-7 late in the first half but outscored the Cougars from there 27-7 to avoid the upset.

Cal got a gift early in the third quarter when Wazzu's punter fumbled on a fake, which Bears senior Stefan McClure picked up and returned 45 yards for a score. And quarterback Jared Goff continued his rise up NFL draft charts by hitting on 33 of 45 throws for 390 yards and four scores against one interception.

Two weeks ago, the Bears opened conference play with a 30-24 victory at Washington, and just before that, they beat Texas in Austin 45-44. So Cal is already 2-0 on the road this year.

If the Bears can tighten up on defense, they've got a chance to pull off an upset Saturday.

Why the Utah Utes can cover the spread

Utah is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after rocking Oregon two weeks ago 62-20 in Eugene, winning that game in runaway fashion as a 10-point underdog. The Utes then had last week off.

Utah never trailed against the Ducks, snapping a 6-6 tie with three second-quarter touchdowns and then pulling away in the second half, at one point scoring 42 unanswered points. On the day, the Utes racked up 530 yards of offense, 273 on the ground, held the ball for almost 37 minutes and won the turnover battle 3-0. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson threw for 227 yards and four scores and ran for 100 yards and another touchdown, while the defense limited the supposedly explosive Ducks offense to just two touchdowns.

The Utes opened this season with a 24-17 victory over Michigan, a win that looks even better after what the Wolverines have done since. If Utah can come up with another performance like the one against Oregon, it should win and cover this week too.

Smart pick

Utah owns a couple of impressive victories, but Cal looks like an up-and-coming program led by a future NFL player at quarterback. The Bears are also in their third season under new head coach Sonny Dykes, and college football programs often make big strides in their third seasons under new coaching regimes. The smart money here backs the Bears.

Betting trends

• California is 5-0 ATS in its last five games on the road against the Pac-12.
• The total has gone under in six of California's last eight games in October.
• Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games at home in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.