Colorado Avalanche

A year ago, the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in the NHL, ahead of only the awful Florida Panthers. This season, the team is 19-6-0 and on pace for 125 points. When adjusting for games played, the team trails only San Jose and Chicago in the NHL standings.

The question now is where the Avs’ true talent level lies.

Are they a bad team playing well above their true level of ability? Are they the great team the early-season standings suggest they are? Or does the truth fall somewhere between those two extremes?

Before comparing the results of this season to 2012-13, let’s look at the possibility of schedule effects.

Colorado has had a slightly favourable schedule early in one way, with 14 home games to 11 road contests, but the team has a better record on the road than at home, so it seems safe to assume that isn’t driving success.

Also not responsible for Colorado’s great run is the quality of opposition the team is facing. Sixteen of 30 teams (53.3 percent) make the playoffs every year and Colorado has faced 2012-13 playoff teams in 14 of its 25 contests (56.0 percent).

In other words, we can safely eliminate schedule effects as a cause of the Avs' early dominance.

With that out of the way, we can start looking in finer detail at the team’s performance in different game situations. We’ll start with even-strength scoring and compare Colorado to the NHL average as well as last season's performance:

There are some interesting numbers there. Colorado is scoring well above both last year’s pace and this season’s NHL average, but its shot rates are actually down at even strength.

All of this goal scoring comes from a 9.3 shooting percentage at even strength, meaning that the Avalanche turn a shot into a goal almost 25 percent more regularly than the average NHL team.

It’s possible that Colorado’s forwards turned into elite shooters, were elite shooters suffering through a rough patch last year or Patrick Roy’s new system puts a priority on top-flight chances.

Most commonly, though, this kind of shooting percentage increase turns out to be temporary and is generally seen as an indicator that regression may be on the way.

What about defensive play at even strength?

We see something similar here. Colorado has allowed more shots than last year, and more shots than the NHL average, but is allowing far fewer goals thanks to a 0.945 even-strength save percentage—a total which would have led the NHL last season.

While Jean-Sebastien Giguere has been excellent in the backup role, most of this is the result of the play of Semyon Varlamov.

Throughout his career, Varlamov has a 0.915 save percentage—an average-ish number for an NHL starter. In 2012-13, Varlamov posted a 0.903 save percentage—a number typical of a recalled third-string goalie. This season, however, he has a 0.933 save percentage, which is a better number than that posted by Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky last season.

Maybe Roy has completely overhauled the defensive system. Maybe he’s a goalie whisperer. More likely, Varlamov is an average-ish starter having a great season right after a terrible season.

There is good news on the power play:

Colorado had a decidedly subpar power-play unit last season, but the new coaching staff seems to have elevated it to roughly the NHL average. That’s a big step forward.

What about on the penalty kill?

The numbers here are decidedly less impressive. The goals-against number looks great, but once again we see the effect of goaltending. Varlamov’s penalty-kill save percentage has gone from 0.868 last season to 0.900 this year while Giguere went from 0.880 to 0.923.

Some of that jump is probably sustainable, but a lot of it isn’t. If the quality of goaltending dips, Colorado is going to pay for the number of shots it allows.

The situation overall, however, is not as bad as the numbers in all the situations above would seem to indicate. The reason is score effects.

Teams generally do a better job of getting shots—and consequently goals—when they are down by one or two than when they are up by one or two.

Last season, the average team at five-on-five took 50 percent of unblocked shot attempts with the score tied or close. According to Behind the Net, that number rose to 57 percent when down two goals and fell to 43 percent when up two goals.

Colorado has spent a lot of time up by one or two goals. Looking at the five-on-five numbers from ExtraSkater.com, for example, the Avs outshoot their opponents 30-29 in situations where the score is close while being outshot 31-29 overall.

The Avalanche likely aren’t as good as their record, which is a reasonable conclusion from any standpoint given the massive improvement in the team's fortunes in a single summer.

The club’s shooters will probably cool off a little while the goaltending will drop off a bit.

But this isn’t the 2009-10 team that rode Craig Anderson to a hot start before faltering, and it isn’t last year’s Avs either.

Colorado probably won’t finish in the top five in the NHL standings, but it is an improved team and—given its young talent—there is every reason to expect the Avalanche to make the playoffs both this year and for some time to come.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics are courtesy of NHL.com and current through the start of games on December 3.  

 “I believe the first test of a truly great man is his humility.”

 -John Ruskin

If you’re looking for an example of humility, look no further than the now-retired Milan Hejduk. One of the last remaining links to the glorious Avalanche Stanley Cup days is hanging up his skates for good. Hejduk’s name may not have regularly appeared in headlines, but nobody from the Colorado franchise will forget the soft-spoken sharpshooter from Usti-nad Labem, Czech Republic.

On June 29, 1994, Hejduk was claimed by the Quebec Nordiques as the 87th selection in the NHL Draft. Now, 19 years, 1020 games and 805 points later, Hejduk will hang up his Avalanche sweater for good. It is the only sweater he ever wore.

The man whom Avs fans so affectionately nicknamed “The Duke” has come a long way since his NHL debut in 1998. When he first joined the league, he knew very little English and got a shocking glimpse of the rock 'n' roll NHL lifestyle when he roomed with notorious partier, Theo Fleury.

He amassed a terrific rookie season and was a finalist for the Calder Trophy, all while fighting for ice time on a Stanley Cup contending team flush with future Hall of Famers.

He worked hard in practice amid world class athletes in Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic. Little did he know, he would overcome the remarkable hurdles and eventually follow teammates Sakic and Adam Foote to become the third Avalanche captain in franchise history.

While still in his early NHL years, Hejduk got a front row seat to watch then-captain Joe Sakic regularly dominate the opposition with a quiet, business-like demeanor. Sakic’s persona gained him the nickname “Quoteless Joe” with the media, who directed most of its attention on the Avs’ superstars while Hejduk stealthily flew under the radar. However, those within the organization knew the winger was quickly evolving into one of the game’s top snipers.

Hejduk’s steadfast dedication and production for the franchise did not go unnoticed, and “Hedgie” was rewarded with the captaincy in 2012. With the C freshly stitched onto his sweater, the normally reserved skater demonstrated the ability to lead by example and guided a very young, albeit talented roster across the rigors of a long season.

Over time, the sports pundits realized the uncanny similarity between Hejduk and Sakic, as both posted outstanding career numbers while maintaining the same “aw shucks” mentality.

Now, as the 37-year-old veteran prepares to officially retire from the game of hockey, he leaves as a household name in the NHL community and has garnered the utmost respect from his teammates and peers.

The way Hejduk carries himself does not result in much attention, but his statistics do. A bevy of accomplishments dot his remarkable NHL career. He suited up in over 1000 games and cracked the 800 career point milestone. He was named to three All-Star Games and posted 12 consecutive 20-goal seasons.

In 2002-03, he and linemate Peter Forsberg were the most destructive 1-2 punch in the NHL. Hejduk fired home 50 goals and won the Rocket Richard Trophy, while Forsberg cleaned house at the NHL Awards, bringing home the Art Ross and Hart Trophies.

Hejduk also reached the summit of both hockey worlds, capturing a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche in 2001 and a Gold Medal with the Czech Republic national team in the 1998 Olympics. Additionally, he skates into the sunset with the third-highest NHL point total among all of his Czech countrymen.

The only drawback to Hejduk’s impressive career is without his prolonged knee problems, this story would likely be gearing up for another chapter.

Hejduk had contemplated retirement for as many as the previous three years due to his continuous ailments before finally making the disheartening decision to a newspaper in his home country.

An injury-forced retirement is undeserving to any athlete, but the silver lining to this story is that Milan Hejduk deserved every shred of success he achieved across his incredible career.

In a day where sports is becoming more and more fueled by rock star statuses and hefty contracts, Milan was always content with being a humble, team-first guy. In 2005, the right-winger signed a 5 year, $19.5 million contract with the Avalanche, much to the shock of the NHL world. Having posted 85 goals and 173 points over the previous 2 seasons, he could have easily tested the free agent market for a much bigger payday.

When the baffled sports writers and player agents demanded an answer to his modest contract, Hejduk matter-of-factly stated, “I wanted to keep playing in Denver for a long time. There’s no better place to play hockey than in Colorado.”

Despite the loyalty to Denver, Hejduk endured a somewhat arduous season as the team captain. At the conclusion of the year, he selflessly handed off the letter to cornerstone Gabe Landeskog.

Anybody assuming the prolific Czech was stripped of his role was proved wrong in a press conference, where the smiling veteran proudly presented his 20-year old teammate with the honor. Hejduk is the epitome of a team-first guy.

President Harry Truman once said, “It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.” Hejduk alone, provides merit to such a statement.

Cheers to you, Milan Hejduk.

You may always be remembered as somewhat of a quiet superstar, with your muted persona and simple, arms-raised goal celebrations. But the one moment I will always remember from your career is when you went swimming after scoring on Ed Belfour in overtime.

I have seen many people, both on the pro and amateur levels, attempt to duplicate it, but I doubt it will ever be perfected again as the way you did it on that one Sunday afternoon.

Thank you so much for the memories, and many congratulations on your remarkable career. I hope the Avalanche will be graced with a player of your character and caliber once again.    

The tactical systems of the red-hot Colorado Avalanche show strong similarities to those of the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, and changes to their personnel have made it possible.

The Avalanche have had a remarkable start to the 2013 season. Just months removed from a first-overall selection at the NHL Draft, the Avs' current record of 10-1-0 and plus-19 goal differential are both good for second in the league. It leaves us with the question of just how it could be possible.

Matt Duchene commented this past week that there was a disconnect between the systems designed by former Head Coach Joe Sacco and the way the team has been built by GM Greg Sherman. As per Nick Cotsonkia of Yahoo! Sports:

“That’s one thing we’ve all talked about in our room the last four years,” Duchene said. “Not to knock anybody or anything, but I don’t feel like we’ve played the way that our team is built. I think we’ve played a little bit too stingy and slow, or tried to play that way, and it wasn’t in our makeup, and it backfired, I think. I think we need to play a style like Chicago. We’re built like a Chicago.”

Chicago is known for an up-tempo, aggressive style. But that sound bite covers up some very distinctive patterns in their tactics. Colorado has certainly added pace to their game this year and are arguably emulating some of Chicago's structures, especially in defensive transition.

Chicago's Defensive Transition

The Blackhawks' defensive transition has two pressure points after a two-man forecheck using backside pressure. Backside pressure is used to prevent a reverse play and encourage the opposition to flow either toward the first pressure point at the top of the circles or the second pressure point just before the red line.

The key is the third forward (F3) controlling the horizontal passing lanes so that the defensemen can be aggressive vertically. Though F3 comes low for puck support, he re-cycles high and attacks to the puck from the weak-side in defensive transition. You're not alone if that sounds like gibberish to you, so let's see what it looks like:

Bryan Bickell (29) is F1, and the second forechecker (Jeremy Morin, 11) brings pressure from behind. In this case, the defenseman Clayton Stoner (4) tries the reverse anyway. Immediately checked by Morin, Matt Dumba (55) dumps it up the boards, but Andrew Shaw (65) reads it and we see the next pressure point of the Blackhawks' forecheck. 

Shaw has curled to come back through the lane between the puck-carrier (Stephane Veilleux, 19) on the boards and the middle lane. The strong-side defenseman, Michal Rozsival (32), comes down the boards to contest the puck, knowing the winger is isolated.

The 'Hawks make the turnover and continue to apply pressure.

If the opposition gains clean control of the puck in their breakout, F3 will attack to the puck along the boards, with that strong-side defenseman holding containment over-top and closing the lane at the red line.

The image above comes on the same shift as the other two, on a subsequent breakout attempt. In this case, Kyle Brodziak (21) realizes the pressure point is coming and tries a flip play before even entering the neutral zone.

A defenseman pinching down the boards on a contested puck is a play we see often from various teams who use this pressure point, but the Blackhawks include a wrinkle. If the opposition doesn't have a person in the layer above the puck-carrier (where Dany Heatley, 15, is in Image 2), that pressure play is made by the weak-side defenseman swinging across, not the strong-side defenseman pinching down. 

Chicago has their defensemen switch often, in fact. That switch avoids the risk of being flat-footed when attacking toward the puck, and so they can be more aggressive in their decisions about when to apply pressure.

Colorado's Defensive Transition

As we turn to the Avalanche, you might notice some similarities.

Here is their two-man forecheck with backside pressure and F3 (Steve Downie, 17) curling to apply pressure from the weak-side (where the puck is not) toward the strong-side (where the puck is).

They also share both of the pressure points described above.

The image below, taken just a moment after the image above, shows Downie in that isolating lane between the puck-carrier (Justin Abdelkader, 8) and the center layer (Drew Miller, 20) while the strong-side defender (Jan Hejda, 8) makes a play down the boards. 

A little later in the period we see the second pressure point:

Above is the same red-line pressure point used by Chicago. In this case, Gabriel Landeskog (92) has switched places with Ryan Wilson (44) in the preceding play, and it's Wilson who closes the lane horizontally on Pavel Datsyuk (13), while Landeskog has over-top containment.

One major difference is that the Avs don't use a swinging weak-side defenseman, and so rather than risk having the strong-side defenseman get trapped flat-footed, they rely more heavily on their forwards to isolate puck-carriers, apply back pressure, and control passing lanes in the neutral zone when the opposition gains control of the puck.

Personnel Changes

The Avs likely don't use that swinging weak-side defender because they simply can't. Their defense group is not mobile enough. Yet.

GM Greg Sherman made major changes to the back end in the summer, after adding Joe Sakic to the front office, who in turn hired new head coach Patrick Roy.

The Blackhawks are well known for their versatile, two-ways defenders. Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Nick Leddy and Johnny Oduya can all skate, pass and defend. The Blackhawks' system requires mobile defenders who won't abandon their responsibilities.

In Colorado, one-dimensional defenders have started to be replaced with multi-tool players. Slow, powerful, meat-and-potatoes defenders Greg Zanon, Shane O'Brien and Ryan O'Byrne were not brought back from last year's squad. Equally, specialist puck-mover Stefan Elliot was assigned to the AHL along with Matt Hunwick. All five of those defenders played regular minutes for the Avs a year ago.

In their place, smooth-skating new acquisition Andre Benoit plays in all three disciplines, Cory Sarich and Nate Guerin are more mobile stay-at-home types, and Jan Hejda is given the most minutes of all blue-liners. Erik Johnson and Ryan Wilson round out the top six in a significant step toward versatility.

Summing It Up

Going down the list of names on each roster, it's clear the Avalanche are not the Blackhawks just yet, particularly on defense.

Still, the Avalanche have created an aggressive puck-pressure system in defensive transition that looks a lot like the one Chicago uses, and it's clearly working for them. Watch for continued upgrades on the back end to complete their Blackhawk makeover.

The Colorado Avalanche are one of the most surprising and positive stories of the NHL season’s first month. They are 8-1-0 under new coach Patrick Roy, whose club leads the Central Division and trails only the San Jose Sharks by one point in the overall standings.

It’s been a phenomenal stretch for the Avalanche, who have outscored opponents 28-12 and are 5-0 on the road. But based on their numbers in 2013-14—especially the goaltending numbers—there's almost zero chance this hot start is for real.

The Avalanche have a team save percentage of .961, the type of numbers you would post while playing a video game on the beginner level.

Starter Semyon Varlamov is 5-1-0 with a .950 save percentage and is finally looking like the goaltender the Avalanche felt was worthy of a first- and second-round draft pick when they acquired him from the Washington Capitals in 2011. 

The only thing more unexpected than Varlamov’s dominance has been the performance of 36-year-old backup Jean-Sebastien Giguere. He is 3-0-0 with two shutouts and a .981 save percentage.

Amazingly, the only two goals he has allowed this season were against the Buffalo Sabres, who have zero regulation/OT wins and are averaging 1.20 goals per game.

Whether you’re a proponent of hockey’s advanced, fancy statistics or you prefer to let your eyes and gut tell you how to feel about things, there’s just no way you can expect Varlamov and Giguere to continue at this pace when they are facing an average of 33.8 shots per game.

Perhaps the best case against the Avalanche running away with the Presidents’ Trophy lies in their nine-game PDO, an abnormally high 1067 based largely on that .961 save percentage.

PDO tabulates a team’s save percentage and shooting percentage, and teams that are far above 1000 should regress while teams that are well below 1000 should improve.

So, how high is a PDO of 1067? In the past three 82-game seasons, the league leaders had an average PDO of about 1020.

Over the past three seasons, the Avalanche’s PDO was consistently in the 980s as they failed to reach the postseason. The makeup of this year’s team isn’t much different than the one that finished 29th in the standings last year, so it’s a logical leap to think this team is playing way over its head.

Nathan MacKinnon is good, but he’s not that good.

PDO aside, an outstanding nine-game stretch is quite common for even the worst of teams during an 82-game season.

The 2011-12 Montreal Canadiens and Edmonton Oilers had 7-2-0 runs early that season and finished 28th and 29th in the league, respectively. That season’s Minnesota Wild team became PDO poster boys after jumping to a 20-7-3 start before crashing back to earth with a 15-29-8 record over their final 52 games.

The 2010-11 Avalanche had a 6-1-2 stretch in December but stumbled to 69 points and a 29th-place finish. 

PDO isn’t a foolproof way to predict a team’s performance, but it’s a strong indicator of which teams are playing over their heads over small sample sizes, and the Avalanche fit the profile really well right now.

If the Avalanche’s bloated PDO doesn’t convince you that the team will take several steps backward as the season moves forward, perhaps its subpar Corsi and Fenwick numbers will make the case.

The Avalanche are below average in both Corsi and Fenwick, which is just an elegant way of saying they are being outshot by the opposition on a consistent basis.

In the Avalanche's 1-0 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday, they were thoroughly dominated. The only thing keeping them atop the standings is the play of Varlamov and Giguere, who are a combined 104 save percentage points above their career averages.

It's like a deal with the devil that's not withstanding. As long as the Avalanche continue to be porous defensively, it’s only a matter of time before things take a turn for the worse in Denver.

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Washington Capitals 5-1 on Saturday night, a win that improved their record to a perfect 5-0-0 and tied them for first overall in the NHL standings. It’s a massive change from the situation last year, when Colorado finished 29th in the NHL and ended up drafting Nathan MacKinnon first overall.

What’s going on, exactly?

Some of what’s going right for Colorado is going just too right to continue. That starts in net. A year ago, Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere combined for a 0.904 save percentage. So far this year, the duo has a combined for a 0.977 save percentage.

To put it in perspective, if Colorado's goalies had managed those numbers last season, the Avs would have gone from minus-36 as a team to plus-70—over just 48 games! It’s a lot easier to score more goals than the opposition when the goaltending is near-perfect.

If the team has taken a big step beyond goaltending, it should be visible in its shot metrics. A year ago, the Avalanche were just a hair worse than their opposition at generating shots five-on-five. This year, they’re just a touch better.

That’s actually more impressive than it sounds.

Teams typically shoot more when they’re trailing, and Colorado spent a lot of time trailing last year. If we just look at what happens when the score is close, we see a significant jump in the early going, albeit not one that moves the Avs near the top of the league.

What about special teams?

If anything, the situation looks worse than last year, at least based on the shots data. A year ago, the Avalanche outshot the opposition by a rate of 46-to-8 in an average hour of five-on-four time. This year, that’s down to 44-to-8. In an average hour of four-on-five penalty killing, last year the Avs surrendered 43 more shots per hour than they took. This year, that total is up to 48.

It’s early enough that the trends could still shift significantly, but right now the shot data suggests that Colorado’s special teams are worse than they were a year ago.

If the shot data is right and Colorado is a little better five-on-five and a little worse on special teams, does that mean the franchise is doomed to repeat last year’s miserable campaign? Not at all, for a few different reasons.

Last year, Colorado got lousy goaltending from Varlamov. The team’s starter has a career save percentage of 0.914; his 0.903 run in 2012-13 was his worst-ever NHL campaign. So far this year, he’s been brilliant, but even at his career-average level of play he’ll be significantly better than last season.

Secondly, Colorado struggled to score on the shots they got five-on-five last season. In the three seasons prior to 2012-13, they scored on 8.2 percent of their shots on average, which is also the rate they are scoring at this season.

But 2012-13 saw nearly a full percentage drop, down to 7.3 percent. That may not sound like a lot, but if the Avs had fired at 8.2 percent last year, they would have scored 10 more goals than they did; that’s enough to have a significant impact on the standings, especially over a 48-game campaign.

Finally, it’s worth remembering that Patrick Roy is a rookie NHL head coach and that he hasn’t had a long time with his new team. It’s going to take time to see his effect on the squad, time for him to institute his systems and get a feel for the roster.

It seems reasonable to think that as he—and the rest of this young team—gains experience, the team will take further strides, and those shot numbers will improve more dramatically. 

For now, though, the exceptional work of Semyon Varlamov and Jean-Sebastien Giguere is the single-biggest reason Colorado is winning so many games.