Colorado Rockies

Free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino doesn't need an agent to make a pitch to teams around the league on his behalf—he's doing a strong job of hyping up his skill set on his own.

Ottavino made headlines Monday by going on the Statcast podcast and proclaiming one of the greatest hitters in MLB history couldn't touch his pitches, h/t ESPN:

"I had an argument with a coach in Triple-A about Babe Ruth's effectiveness in today's game. I said, 'Babe Ruth, with that swing, swinging that bat, I got him hitting .140 with eight homers.

"He was like, 'are you nuts? Babe Ruth would hit .370 with 60 homers,' and I'm like, 'I would strike Babe Ruth out every time.'

"I'm not trying to disrespect him, you know, rest in peace, you know, shout out to Babe Ruth. But, it was a different game, I mean the guy ate hot dogs and drank beer and did whatever he did. It was just a different game."

Unfortunately, Ottavino will never have the opportunity to back up his talk.

Ruth is considered by many to be the greatest to ever lace them up, as he hit .342/.474/.690 and owned a 1.164 career slugging percentage. He retired as MLB's home run king, and more than 80 years later, he still ranks third all-time with 714 dingers.

Of course, the game has changed a lot since 1935. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever, teams use specialist relievers late in games, and defensive shifts have become a hitter's nightmare. And that's just to name a few changes.

Meanwhile, Ottavino owns a 3.68 career ERA and a 1.300 WHIP in 366 appearances since debuting in 2010, pitching seven of those years with hitter-friendly Coors Field as his home ballpark. The right-hander has struck out 10.1 batters per nine for his career, striking out 464 in 413 innings.

The 33-year-old is coming off his finest season to date, posting a 2.43 ERA and a 0.991 WHIP in 75 outings. He also struck out 112 hitters in 77.2 innings, recording a career-high 13.0 strikeouts per nine.

While some may laugh off Ottavino's comments, every pitcher needs to have the confidence in their stuff to believe they can strikeout everyone, even a legend like Ruth. And with Ottavino's performance in 2018, he has plenty of reason to hype up his game.

Teams may not take Ottavino's talk into account when it comes time to pay up, but his numbers should earn him a solid contract this winter.

Colorado Rockies center fielder Charlie Blackmon closed out the regular season in style, hitting for the cycle Sunday against the Washington Nationals at Coors Field.

Blackmon completed the feat with an RBI double in the bottom of the eighth to put Colorado ahead 10-0. According to Rockies broadcaster Jenny Cavnar, it's the ninth cycle in franchise history.

.@Chuck_Nazty went all out for #Game162!

That's a cycle! pic.twitter.com/Se8qqb1hb6

— MLB (@MLB) September 30, 2018

Colorado entered the day tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the National League West, having already secured a postseason berth.

Blackmon set the tone with a leadoff triple in the bottom of the first. He scored three batters later on a two-run home run by Nolan Arenado. Blackmon then had a two-run homer of his own in the third to give Colorado a four-run cushion.

Pitcher gets on base? You got to bring him home. https://t.co/Z8mOo1E7UR

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 30, 2018

The three-time All-Star checked off the easiest step of his cycle with an infield single to start the bottom half of the fifth and again came around to score on a David Dahl home run.

The Dodgers defeated the San Francisco Giants 15-0 earlier in the day, so the Rockies are headed for a one-game tiebreaker Monday to determine the NL West champion. The game is scheduled for 4:09 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium.

Keeping Blackmon off the bases will be one of Los Angeles' top priorities as it tries to stymie the Rockies offense in the tiebreaker.

The Colorado Rockies are headed back to the postseason following a 5-2 win over the Washington Nationals on Friday night at Coors Field. 

The victory temporarily put the Rockies 1.5 games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the National League West with two contests remaining in the regular season. 

We’re baaack! Welcome to #Rocktober! 🏔 pic.twitter.com/jLKZE7QBcg

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 29, 2018

Nice and easy for now, but we’re going to enjoy this. Bigger goals, bigger prize!#Rocktober 🍾 https://t.co/NNgULjUL50

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 29, 2018

The Rockies made the playoffs last year as the NL's final wild-card qualifier, but they bowed out of the postseason following a thrilling 11-8 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks with a spot in the NLDS on the line. 

Colorado Rockies make franchise history with postseason berths in B2B seasons#SeptemberBaseball pic.twitter.com/oSgS4vdauJ

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) September 29, 2018

This season, the Rockies kept pace in the race for a playoff spot because of their starting lineup's power-packed stylings. As a club, Colorado ranks second in the NL in slugging percentage (.432) and OPS (.754). 

Those figures have been buoyed by the production of offensive pillars DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon.      

If there's a worry with the Rockies, it's their rotation. Colorado's starting staff ranks 12th among NL clubs with a 4.18 ERA, and there's a noticeable drop-off in top-end talent beyond Kyle Freeland and German Marquez, who has been scalding hot (2.55 ERA) since the All-Star break in July. 

On top of that, Rockies relievers rank 13th in the NL with a 4.61 ERA. The only clubs with worse marks are the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. 

On the bright side, the Rockies have demonstrated an ability to hang tough away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. While Colorado was just one game over .500 (41-40) on the road a year ago, manager Bud Black's squad displayed a bit of improvement and went 44-37 this season. 

That's not a whopping difference, to be sure, but it's clear the Rockies won't be pushovers even when they aren't surrounded by thin air. 

And given the haymakers their star-studded lineup can pack, a run toward the NL pennant isn't out of the question for a team that has caught fire down the stretch. 

Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story appears to have avoided serious damage to his elbow.

“We got pretty good [test] results this afternoon, just moments ago," Colorado manager Bud Black said on Tuesday. "There's some inflammation and a little bit of soreness around the joint but the ligament seems to be fine."

Rockies reporter Taylor McGregor noted Story is expected to return to the lineup in "a few days."

Previously, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported Story possibly had UCL damage in his right elbow.

Story had to exit Monday night's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the middle of an at-bat in the fourth inning as the result of feeling elbow discomfort after a swing:

This is another setback for Story after thumb surgery cost him a solid portion of his rookie season in 2016. Despite that injury, he turned heads as a first-year player with a .272/.341/.567 slash line and 27 home runs in just 97 games.

The 25-year-old has followed those totals with 24 long balls in 2017 as an important part of the Rockies lineup and has put himself in the National League MVP debate by hitting .288 with 33 home runs, 40 doubles, five triples and 102 RBI in 149 games in 2018.

Colorado can turn to the combination of Pat Valaika, Ian Desmond and Garrett Hampson at shortstop with Story out. They are each versatile enough to play different spots in the infield, so there are still some mix-and-match options for the Rockies depending on the opposing pitcher.

Still, Story's presence makes this team much more formidable. After Monday night's 8-2 loss to Los Angeles, the Rockies are a half-game back in both the NL West and the Wild Card race.

This is an article about Trevor Story, but don't worry. It will be completely pun-less. Every possible play on his last name has already been made hundreds of times over.

Besides, let's be real. All anyone wants to do right now is watch that home run again.

You know, this one:

That's the 505-foot home run that Story blasted in the Colorado Rockies' 5-3 win over the San Francisco Giants on Sept. 5. It's the longest home run of at least the Statcast era (since 2015), and possibly ever. After all, it's not as if the measurements of legendary dingers of yesteryear can be trusted.

In any case, that prodigious wallop is a grand ol' feather in the cap of a player who's quietly become the best shortstop in the National League.

Homers are certainly a big part of Story's case. His big blast was merely the loudest of the 32 he's hit this season. No other NL shortstop has more than 17. Throw in 40 doubles and 25 stolen bases, and he's already had a season unlike any shortstop ever.

Meanwhile, Story also co-leads his fellow NL shortstops in average (.293), and leads in on-base percentage (.347), slugging percentage (.558) and wins above replacement (5.0). 

But if it feels like the 25-year-old has been doing all this under the radar, that's because he has been. 

Story only made the NL All-Star team as a backup to Brandon Crawford. He's attracted less attention on Google all season than Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, who had Tommy John surgery in May. Per Richard Justice of MLB.com, he's merely on the periphery of the NL MVP race.

It seems safe to chalk this up to the Rockies effect. Even when they're doing well—as they are now in leading the NL West race—they tend to be treated as an oddity on the national stage. And whenever one of their hitters puts up big numbers, there's always the "yeah, but Coors Field" clapback.

This is where a defense of Story must begin. The thin air and huge gaps of the Rockies' digs carried his production in his first two seasons, but wRC+ reveals that he's been an above average hitter at and away from home in 2018:

It helps to have power that plays anywhere. Story's 43.5 hard-hit percentage since 2016 ranks fifth among qualified hitters. He's also "barreled" 12.1 percent of his batted balls, which easily tops his fellow shortstops. So, you see, his 505-foot clout wasn't that much of an outlier.

But while Story's power generated 51 home runs in his first two seasons, his .253 average and .322 OBP underscored his trouble with consistency. His fatal flaw was his 33.1 strikeout percentage, which placed him behind only Chris Davis and Miguel Sano.

In 2018, however, Story has cut his K% down to 26.1 percent. This marks an improvement of historic proportions, according to Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs. The recipe for it involves a little Kris Bryant and a little Mike Trout.

Like Story, Bryant was a big-time strikeout magnet when he broke into the majors in 2015. His solution was to flatten his swing, cutting down on its uppercut quality and allowing for a more direct path to the ball. Lo and behold, his strikeout problem isn't a problem anymore.

According to Nick Groke of the Denver Post, the Rockies started pushing Story to make a similar change late in 2017, and it's paying off now. His average launch angle is down from 18.8 to 16.6 degrees. This has cost him some fly balls but gained him quite a bit of contact.

Another issue Story had in his first two seasons was a reluctance to swing, even when pitches found the strike zone. That placed him on the wrong side of the fine line between patience and passivity.

Enter Brandon Sherard, Story's longtime friend and hitting coach, who pressed the slugger to alter his approach.

“One of the biggest things we did was have him change his mindset to where he was hunting the ball out in front of the plate and slowing his body down,” Sherard told Patrick Saunders of the Post.

This, too, is paying off. Per Baseball Savant's most detailed strike zone, Story's swing rate inside the zone has increased while his swing rate outside the zone has remained static:

Hence the comparison to Trout, who's undertaken a similar revolution over the last three years. Story hasn't—and probably definitely never will—reach his heights, but his damage within the strike zone has improved accordingly:

• 2016: .766 SLUG%
• 2017: .569 SLUG%
• 2018: .853 SLUG%

As Story has made efforts to become a better hitter, his other talents haven't fallen by the wayside.

He's a threat on the bases because he's one of the fastest shortstops in MLB, with an average sprint of 29.6 feet per second. His defensive quality is harder to pin down, yet defensive runs saved leans decidedly to the positive. The video offers plenty of support in favor of that conclusion.

Ultimately, there aren't any reasons to doubt that Story really is as good as his numbers suggest. The tools were there from the beginning. By adding some nuance to his game, he's permitting himself to squeeze more out of them.

Which is to say: He's worthy of attention, even when he's not hitting the ball untold distances.

        

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story put on a serious power display at Coors Field against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night.

In the bottom of the first inning, Story gave the Rockies a 2-1 lead by taking Giants southpaw Andrew Suarez deep...while falling down.

That's a loooooong story.

Volume 3, Chapter 29 #StoryTime 📚 https://t.co/Ls32WlhHo9

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 6, 2018

That was nothing compared to what he did a few innings later.

Story got Suarez again in the bottom of the fourth, this time to the tune of 505 feet.

We KNOW you haven't heard this Story before!!

505 FEET!!!!!

Volume 3, Chapter 30 #StoryTime 📚 https://t.co/h6tzC5B2Qt

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 6, 2018

According to The Athletic's Andrew Baggarly, that was the longest home run in the Statcast era:

Trevor Story's home run tonight is the longest in the Statcast Era ™️. Giancarlo Stanton held the previous mark with a 504-footer in 2016. Those are the only home runs measured at 500+ feet.

— Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) September 6, 2018

It doesn't matter where that ball was hit. Coors Field, the Grand Canyon; either way, it was long gone.

Story wasn't done though. He got Suarez again in the sixth to put his team ahead for good:

A Story so good, we needed a trilogy. 😱 pic.twitter.com/udkCdizdP9

— MLB (@MLB) September 6, 2018

What a night. 

After enduring the worst year of his MLB career, Matt Holliday will reportedly reunite with the Colorado Rockies after agreeing to a minor league deal on Saturday with the team that drafted him, according to Fancred's Jon Heyman.

Although he was an All-Star in 2012 and 2015, the 38-year-old's offense has generally trended downward following the 2011 season. He batted .296, slugged .525 and finished with a .912 OPS then, and almost every year since, his OPS fell compared to the year before.

Things reached a nadir for Holliday in 2017. In 105 games for the New York Yankees, he had a .231/.316/.432 slash line along with 19 home runs and 64 RBI. And despite logging the third-fewest plate appearances of his career (427), he struck out his third-most times in a single season (114).

In particular, Holliday struggled when opposing pitchers attacked him with something other than a fastball. According to Brooks Baseball, he had an 8.72 percent whiff rate on fastballs. That number climbed to 18.38 percent for breaking balls and 22.09 percent for off-speed pitches.

Some expected Holliday to have a bounce-back 2017 after he batted .253 on balls in play in 2016, per FanGraphs. Instead, it may be fair to wonder whether the fractured thumb he suffered in August 2016 had had a long-lasting effect on his swing.

In the team's press release announcing his signing, the Yankees noted Holliday had an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph, which was third-best among hitters with at least 100 batted balls in play. According to Baseball Savant, his average exit velocity fell to 89.9 mph in 2017.

No slugger is immune to the aging curve, and the thumb injury may have accelerated his inevitable decline.

Holliday's 19 homers illustrate he still boasts plenty of power. The problem is that power came far more inconsistently than it did when he was in his prime with the Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals.

In September, NJ Advance Media's Brendan Kuty speculated Holliday wouldn't be back in New York in 2018. In addition to the player's underwhelming offense, Kuty noted he is almost exclusively a designated hitter now since he can't regularly play one of the three outfield positions anymore.

However, Kuty also wrote that Holliday "has been a huge mentor to Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier and likely other hitters we don't know about."

As well as hoping for Holliday to turn things around at the plate in 2018, the Rockies may be counting on him to have a similar impact inside their clubhouse.

      

Stats are courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.

The Colorado Rockies placed second baseman DJ LeMahieu on the 10-day disabled list Saturday with a left oblique strain.

In a corresponding move, Colorado called up shortstop Garrett Hampson.

LeMahieu exited Friday's 11-10 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks before the bottom of the third inning because of the injury.

This year has been an unlucky one for the second basemen, who has already been on the disabled list because of a hamstring strain and a sprained thumb.

LeMahieu had avoided these types of problems in the past, playing at least 145 games in each of the last four seasons.

The 30-year-old is one of the National League's top players at his position.

He has topped a .300 batting average in each of the past three seasons, winning a batting title in 2016 by hitting .348. He also has two Gold Gloves and two All-Star appearances to his credit.

Though the injuries have seemed to slow him down a little, he remains an elite fielder and has hit .278 with eight home runs and 34 RBI so far in 2018.

Until LeMahieu returns, the Rockies will likely turn to Hampson and Pat Valaika.

Colorado will hope for a speedy recovery since it is in the midst of a playoff race, trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by just two games for the National League West lead.

On Sunday, Charlie Blackmon launched a solo homer for the Colorado Rockies in a 6-4 loss to the Seattle Mariners. It was a nice moment for Blackmon, who signed a six-year, $108 million extension with the Rockies in April.

Unfortunately for Blackmon and Colorado, nice moments haven't come frequently enough in 2018—and that extension is looking like an albatross in the offing.

The deal made some sense at the time. Blackmon was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2017 and finished fifth in voting for the award. He led the National League with a .331 average, posted a 1.000 OPS, cracked 37 home runs and paced all of MLB with 387 total bases.

Blackmon was 31 years old when he inked the extension (he turned 32 July 1). But after his '17 output, it behooved Colorado to lock him up before he hit free agency.

This season, however, he's tumbled back to Earth.

Granted, Blackmon has hit 17 home runs. But his OPS has fallen nearly 180 points from last year's tally to .822. His hard-contact rate has dipped from 39 percent in 2017 to 34 percent. In June, he posted a .683 OPS and managed just seven extra-base hits in 115 at-bats.

Are the new contract and concurrent expectations messing with Blackmon's head? His skipper intimated the answer may be "yes."

"This guy's the National League batting champ, he started the All-Star game, hit 37 home runs, knocked in over 100 runs from the leadoff position—he's going to be pitched tough the next year, for sure," Rockies manager Bud Black said, per Kyle Newman of the Denver Post. "I think Charlie has, at times, come out of his game a little bit." 

Perhaps more troubling, Blackmon's defensive performance has taken a dive. He posted minus-five defensive runs saved and a minus-0.9 ultimate zone rating for his play in center field in 2017, already not great. This year, those figures have fallen to minus-22 and minus-8.9, respectively. 

Blackmon's future, in all likelihood, is as a corner outfielder. That makes his offensive decline all the more worrisome. 

This year—even if he's not in the MVP conversation—Blackmon should help the Rockies win games as they try to hang with the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks in the deep, balanced NL West. He might even go on a tear and get closer to his 2017 production.

That's a big "might," though. And it doesn't take into account the remaining five years on his extension.

In 2022, Blackmon has a $21 million player option. That's his age-35 season. The following year, Blackmon can opt in for a minimum $10 million option.

In 2015, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe dug into the data on players around Blackmon's current age, and his findings weren't rosy:

"...after turning 30, players experience a clear and steady decline in the likelihood that they'll be productive offensive contributors, with 33-year-old players delivering 2.0 WAR with less than half the frequency of players 26-29. The picture gets progressively uglier from there."

If this were the deep-pocketed Dodgers or New York Yankees, we'd shrug and look away. The Rockies are middle-of-the-pack in terms of payroll, however. A contract like this could cripple them going forward. If they pay a player nine figures, they need him to perform accordingly. 

Blackmon got a vote of confidence from teammate and otherworldly third baseman Nolan Arenado.

"He hasn't changed because of the contract," Arenado said, per Newman. "Here, he's the same guy working hard, trying to find a way every day. What he did last year was ridiculous—he was setting records like crazy, and I wouldn't put it past Charlie that he can do it again. But it's not an easy thing to accomplish."

Not easy now, and not easy as he climbs into his mid-30s, when many players' skills erode and slip away.

Blackmon and the Rockies are crossing their fingers for more nice moments. They should also brace themselves for a steep, costly decline ahead.

          

All statistics and contract information current entering Monday and courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Nolan Arenado, arguably the best third baseman in baseball, has played exactly one playoff game in his career. It was last season's National League wild-card, do-or-die play-in, and his Colorado Rockies died, 11-8, at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

This year, the Rockies may not get that far. 

Entering play Wednesday, Colorado is 43-43 and mired in fourth place in the NL West. A modest winning streak could vault the club into contention, but the Rocks are looking up at the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks in a tough, balanced division.

Once again, their October aspirations could fizzle into also-ran status.

"I don't want to lose anymore. I just hate it," Arenado said, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale. "It's tough on you."

So, the question must be asked: If the Rockies sink in the standings, should they sell Arenado? And if they do, what would it mean for the MLB trade market?

First, a quick recap of Arenado's credentials to date.

In his first five big league seasons between 2013 and 2017, he won five Gold Gloves, earned three top-10 NL MVP finishes and made three All-Star teams. He's tallied more than 40 home runs twice and 130 or more RBI three times. Even adjusting for the Coors Field effect, that's impressive.

This season, he boasts a 1.003 OPS with 22 homers, 63 RBI and 184 total bases, all of which pace the Senior Circuit.

He's also 27 years old, in the midst of his prime, and can't become a free agent until 2020. For fun, let's witness what he can do with the leather and the lumber:

Forget Manny Machado, Mike Moustakas and Josh Donaldson. If the Rockies were to make Arenado available, he'd instantly become the most coveted infielder on the market and one of the biggest trade-deadline game-changers of all time.

Could it happen?

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post hinted at the possibility in a recent column:

"If the current trend continues and the Rockies don’t contend for the playoffs, then I think it becomes highly unlikely that Arenado will consider staying in Colorado. If that is the case, then yes, the Rockies should at least explore an Arenado trade over the winter, or certainly next summer.

It pains me to write this, because I love watching Arenado play, but I don’t think his long-term future is in Colorado."

Saunders is probably right. The safe bet is on Colorado keeping Arenado at least through this season and then considering a trade in the offseason or next year at the deadline, when he'd be an expensive rental.

That said, if the Rockies make him available now, they could net a ludicrous prospect haul.

The Atlanta Braves are blossoming ahead of schedule, have a potential need at third base and boast the game's best farm system, per Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter. 

The St. Louis Cardinals might seek an upgrade at the hot corner and have a cache of promising young pitchers who could buttress a perennial need for Colorado.

The Cards' Matt Carpenter has suffered through an up-and-down campaign and is no longer a reliable lineup anchor. St. Louis could part with right-handers Dakota Hudson and/or Ryan Helsley along with ancillary pieces.

The Philadelphia Phillies could use reinforcements on the left side of the infield and have the prospects and payroll flexibility to swing a deal and ink a long-term extension. MLB Network's Jon Heyman reported they may be looking to deal third baseman Maikel Franco and have expressed interest in the Kansas City Royals' Mike Moustakas. That leaves the door open for Areando as well.

Really, the list of prospective buyers who'd at least inquire about Arenado includes, well...every prospective buyer. Even clubs with an established third baseman would be forced to kick Arenado's tires. 

Selling a generational talent is never an easy decision. When it's a player you drafted and developed—as the Rockies did with Arenado—it's especially tough.

Sometimes, though, the hard decision is the correct one.

"I see the Dodgers, and the guys over there, and they've won this division the last five years," Arenado said, per Nightengale. "I know some of the Giants players. They've got their World Series rings. I'm jealous."

Does that sound like a man who wants to stay put? Are those the words of a player who is committed to his present employer?

The best third baseman in baseball has played exactly one postseason game in his career.

His second might come in a different uniform.

    

All statistics current as of Wednesday and courtesy of Baseball Reference.