NL Central

Having already signed Craig Counsell to a historic managerial contract, the Chicago Cubs appear ready to go big in free agency for the first time in years.

Per ESPN's Jesse Rogers, the Cubs are seen as "more likely to sign" Shohei Ohtani than bring back Cody Bellinger.

One source told Rogers that Bellinger is "as good as gone" after spending the 2023 season in Chicago.

Bellinger's market could be one of the most difficult to figure out. On the surface, a 28-year-old former NL MVP coming off a 20-20 season would seem likely to command whatever deal he wants.

But even with a successful 2023 campaign under his belt, Bellinger has been a below-average hitter with a 95 OPS+ in the four seasons since he was named NL MVP in 2019.

Bellinger also ranked in the 27th percentile in barrel rate and 22nd percentile in average exit velocity last season. He hit well by dramatically reducing his strikeout rate from 26.9 percent in 2021 and 27.3 percent in 2022 to 15.3 percent.

Sacrificing power for contact worked well for Bellinger last season, but will he be able to keep up that trend going forward? This doesn't even factor in the injuries that limited his performance in 2021 and 2022, leading the Los Angeles Dodgers to non-tender him last offseason.

Ohtani is, by far, the best hitter available this offseason. The Cubs are a marquee franchise in Major League Baseball that should be involved in talks with his representatives until a final decision is made.

Rogers noted the Cubs pursued Ohtani when he was first deciding which MLB team to play for in the winter of 2017. They were among the seven finalists for the Japanese superstar before he signed with the Los Angeles Angels.

The Cubs already have a promising nucleus with players like Justin Steele, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in place. Top prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara should be in the big leagues at some point in 2024.

Adding Ohtani to that group would make the Cubs one of the most formidable teams in MLB. This is a formula the team previously used to great success when they signed Jon Lester and Jason Heyward to fill out a roster loaded with young talent that went on to win the 2016 World Series.

Ohtani is at a different level than Lester or Heyward were back then. He's almost certainly going to be named AL MVP for the second time in three years when the award is handed out on Thursday night.

After missing the playoffs in each of the past three seasons, the Cubs seem poised to make a big splash this offseason that will allow them to join the ranks of the NL's elite clubs for 2024.

The Milwaukee Brewers have found their next manager.

Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Brewers will replace Craig Counsell with bench coach Pat Murphy.

Counsell pulled off a stunning move to the Chicago Cubs on Nov. 6. There had been rumblings throughout the 2023 season about his future in Milwaukee, but it seemed like the New York Mets would be his next job if he left the Brewers.

Instead, the Cubs fired David Ross in order to make Counsell the highest-paid manager in MLB on a five-year, $40 million deal.

The 53-year-old Counsell had been managing in Milwaukee since May 2015 when he took over after Ron Roenicke was fired 25 games into the season. He led the team to five playoff appearances and three NL Central titles in the past six seasons.

Counsell's 707 wins are the most by a manager in Brewers history.

Given that track record of success for Counsell, Murphy is going to have a tough task ahead of them. Making the job potentially more difficult is what the roster will look like going into the 2024 season.

Trading Mark Canha, who had an $11.5 million option for 2024, to the Detroit Tigers for a prospect Blake Holub could be an indication that ownership wants to continue reducing payroll.

Christian Yelich, Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby are the only players on the roster not in their arbitration or pre-arbitration years. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames are both entering their final year of arbitration before hitting free agency after next season.

Brewers general manager Matt Arnold told reporters on Oct. 10 the team would be "extremely comfortable" having Woodruff, Burnes and Adames back, but also acknowledged they can never "close the door on any conversations" specifically when asked about Burnes' future.

It's not unreasonable to assume that Milwaukee is getting close to rebuilding, even if a full teardown doesn't happen this offseason.

If the Brewers were looking for a seamless transition from Counsell, it's hard to find a better choice than Murphy. The 64-year-old spent the past eight seasons as Milwaukee's bench coach working with Counsell.

This will be the first MLB full-time managerial job for Murphy, but he was interim skipper with the San Diego Padres for the final 96 games of the 2015 season after Bud Black was fired.

Murphy also spent five seasons as a minor league manager for three different Padres affiliates from 2011 to '15.

Despite his lack of manager experience at the MLB level, Murphy knows the Brewers as well as any coach in the sport right now. He's got relationships with players already on the big-league roster and has worked with their prospects during spring training.

This could be critical for a Brewers team that has a loaded farm system, led by arguably the top prospect in the sport, Jackson Chourio.

There's a lot of help on the way for this team, with Chourio, Jeferson Quero and Jacob Misiorowski likely to make their MLB debut in 2024.

Even if the Brewers go into a rebuild phase this offseason, it shouldn't take too long before they are back contending in the NL Central.

Veteran starting pitcher Aaron Nola is entering free agency for the first time, and he's reportedly drawing interest from a pair of National League teams hoping to pry him away from the Philadelphia Phillies.

According to MLB Network's Jon Morosi, the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals are "among teams showing early interest" in Nola this offseason.

The Phillies made Nola a qualifying offer worth $20.3 million for the 2024 season, and he has until 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday to decide whether he will accept it. The expectation is that he will reject it in hopes of securing a multiyear deal, and Philadelphia will receive a compensatory draft pick if he chooses to sign with another team.

"We love him," Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said recently. "He's been tremendous for the franchise. He's pitched very well for a number of years. He's a Phillie. We hope to retain him, but if we don't to me that would be our No. 1 area – we would need to replace him. We need to be in position where we have somebody else that will be a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation. So, yes, it's either Aaron or somebody else."

While Atlanta has been Nola's biggest rival for his nine major league seasons in Philadelphia, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted on Monday that he is "perhaps the most intriguing fit" for the Braves this offseason. The 30-year-old is "close" with Braves pitching coach Rich Kranitz, who served as bullpen coach with the Phillies in 2016 and 2017 before being elevated to pitching coach in 2018.

Nola is coming off a down year this past season, finishing with a 12-9 record, a 4.46 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 193.2 innings of work. Still, he is capable of being a reliable starter in the right situation and likely will be one of the most coveted pitchers on the market this winter.

Cody Bellinger declining his 2024 mutual option with the Cubs doesn't rule out him playing in Chicago next season.

The Cubs are one of three favorites to sign the NL Silver Slugger-winning utility player in free agency, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale.

The New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants are also in the running for Bellinger, per Nightengale.

Bellinger slashed .307/.356/.525 with 97 RBI and 26 home runs for the Cubs last season, his best totals in every category since his All-Star 2019 campaign with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now the center fielder and first baseman will be looking to cash in on 2023 with a contract larger than his $12 million Cubs option. Spotrac projects Bellinger's market value at $22.5 million per season.

The New York Post's Jon Heyman also named the Yankees, Giants and Cubs as leading bidders for Bellinger earlier this week.

Each team has reason to shell out big money for a hitter who recorded a .881 OPS through 130 games in what looked like a bounce-back campaign from inconsistent stretches that left former MVP Bellinger non-tendered by the Dodgers in 2022.

The Yankees and Giants were two of the most ineffective teams at the plate in 2023, with their team batting averages higher only than the nosediving Oakland Athletics. After batting a collective .227 in 2023, the Yankees are "investigating the top of the hitting market" this offseason, according to Heyman.

Both clubs are also reportedly interested in free agent Shohei Ohtani, so their interest in Bellinger could depend on how close they are to snagging the Los Angeles Angels' two-way star.

The Cubs, meanwhile, want Bellinger back after his bounce-back campaign helped the club reach the right side of .500 for the first time since 2020.

One point potentially in the Cubs' favor is that the team on Monday extended Bellinger a qualifying offer, meaning any other club singing him will forfeit a draft pick to Chicago.

There is also always the possibility another team could enter the bidding race. After the Dodgers declined holding onto Bellinger through arbitration last winter, he reportedly received interest from the Colorado Rockies and Toronto Blue Jays as well as the Giants and Yankees. Heyman noted Tuesday that there are "many, many teams in on" Bellinger.

It's rare that a managerial move should serve as a mission statement for a team's entire offseason, but the Chicago Cubs seemed to throw down a gauntlet when they hired Craig Counsell.

If Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and owner Tom Ricketts really want to prove they are serious about making the Cubs live up to their status as one of the marquee franchises in MLB, they need to go all-in with a pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.

The Cubs hired Counsell away from the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers by making him the highest-paid manager in Major League Baseball on a five-year deal worth more than $40 million.

Counsell's average salary of $8 million is nearly double that of the highest-paid manager from the 2023 season when the Cleveland Guardians paid Terry Francona $4.5 million.

Given how instrumental Jed Hoyer was in picking David Ross to be their manager three years ago and the expectation after the end of the 2023 season that he would be back, the aggressive pursuit of Counsell suggests things are changing on the north side of Chicago.

Hoyer said he had "no comment" when asked during the GM meetings this week if he would be meeting with Ohtani's representatives, but there's a growing belief around the league that it will happen at some point.

Per The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma, one MLB source indicated the Cubs "will be in on a player widely considered to be the biggest prize in this free-agent class."

USA Today's Bob Nightengale noted "as many as 10 teams" could make legitimate offers to Ohtani, with the Cubs being considered "serious contenders."

There's certainly going to be a lot of competition for the three-time All-Star. The Los Angeles Dodgers are almost universally believed to be the favorite to sign.

In a poll of executives from all 30 teams conducted by MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, the Dodgers received 10 of 14 votes from decision-makers as the eventual landing spot for Ohtani.

The Cubs have every resource available to them that the Dodgers do. They are a national brand with a passionate fan base that shows up to Wrigley Field no matter what. They haven't drawn fewer than 2.5 million fans to home games since 1997, excluding the 2020 and 2021 seasons that were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

If Ricketts is concerned about money, the Cubs have $51.9 million in salary coming off their books from last season. Even factoring in raises for arbitration and pre-arb players in 2024, their payroll is only projected to be $182.5 million right now.

If we use MLB Trade Rumors' prediction of a 12-year, $528 million contract for Ohtani, adding his $44 million average annual salary would put the Cubs' payroll right around $223 million. This is still $14 million below the estimated competitive balance tax threshold for next season.

There's still the long-term question about what Ohtani will be as a pitcher, though he intends to keep doing that when he recovers from elbow surgery.

In the short-term, though, Ohtani proved this season he's capable of being the best hitter in the sport. The 29-year-old led MLB in slugging percentage (.654), led the AL in on-base percentage (.412), homers (44) and total bases. He's almost certainly going to be named AL MVP for the second time in three seasons when the award gets announced next week.

Adding an impact hitter would seem to be of paramount importance to the Cubs. Five of their regulars from last season had a below-average OPS+. Cody Bellinger, their best hitter, is a free agent looking for a lucrative long-term contract.

Ohtani completely changes the dynamic for Chicago's lineup. He would slot in at DH, allowing Christopher Morel to play first base. Morel is a flawed player as a low-contact, big-power hitter, but he's made it work with 42 homers in 767 at-bats over the past two seasons.

The lineup should also improve with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong poised to start the season in the big leagues. Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara should be arriving in Chicago at some point in 2024.

There's an argument that the Cubs don't need to make a splashy move to win the NL Central. The Brewers could be going into a rebuild, with The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reporting on Thursday they are "open to moving virtually any player" on the roster.

The Cincinnati Reds are improving, but they have a lot of pitching questions right now. The St. Louis Cardinals were a mess last season and are desperately pursuing starting pitching to make a quick turnaround.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are probably at least one year away from being a serious contender in the NL Central.

But there's a huge difference between being the favorite in a weak division and one of the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series. The National League is in an unusual spot right now with two dominant teams in the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves.

The Philadelphia Phillies could be in that category, but they could be in a position where they have to replace Aaron Nola. Even the Dodgers, who have won at least 100 games in each of the past three seasons, have a lot of pitching questions.

The reigning NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks won 84 games and were outscored by 15 runs during the regular season.

Signing Ohtani would almost certainly put the Cubs on equal footing with the Braves and Dodgers in the NL hierarchy to reach the World Series next season.

As the Cincinnati Reds try to figure out what to do with their surplus of infielders, general manager Nick Krall is already engaged in the trade market.

Speaking to reporters during the general managers meetings, Krall said he's talked with "a handful" of teams about "multiple players" on their roster.

Krall's comments came after MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported on Wednesday that second baseman Jonathan India was a "popular name" among executives, but the Reds have a high opinion of the 26-year-old and "aren't motivated to move him."

The Reds had 17 players with at least 120 plate appearances last season. From that group, nine played the infield or designated hitter. They did clear out two spots with Kevin Newman being a free agent and declining Joey Votto's $20 million option for 2024.

This still leaves Cincinnati with seven players for the four infield spots and one DH slot in the lineup. India, Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McClain would seem like the favorites for those spots if they are on the roster.

Nick Senzel and Noelvi Marte are potential wild cards in the mix. Senzel is the oldest player of the group at 28 years old. He's struggled to make an impact as a big leaguer with a .239/.302/.369 slash line in 377 career games.

The Reds could try to move Senzel, but he likely wouldn't bring much back in a potential trade. Marte is interesting because he played well with a .316/.366/.456 slash line in 123 plate appearances after being called up in August.

Given Marte's status as a top-25 prospect, there's no reason for the Reds not to start next season with him as their starting third baseman.

India has struggled to replicate his success since being named NL Rookie of the Year in 2021. He hit .269/.376/.459 with 21 homers, 69 RBI and 12 stolen bases with 3.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement two years ago.

Since that time, India has a .246/.333/.394 slash line with 27 homers and 17 stolen bases in 222 games. He's been worth 1.7 FanGraphs wins above replacement during that span.

Coming off a surprise 82-80 record in 2023, the Reds could be aggressive this offseason to take advantage of their surplus of hitters to add more pitching help that can get them over the hump in the playoff race.

First, the Milwaukee Brewers lost their manager to the Chicago Cubs.

Now, they may be entering a rebuild.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Milwaukee is "open to moving virtually any player on its roster" after former manager Craig Counsell joined the Cubs. "The process effectively has begun, with the Brewers sending outfielder Mark Canha to the Detroit Tigers for a pitching prospect. A continued teardown, considering the Brewers' current position, would not be without logic. It might even be the proper course."

Milwaukee acquired Canha from the New York Mets in a trade last season, and he slashed .287/.373/.427 with five home runs and 33 RBI in 50 games for the National League Central team.

He was an important contributor down the stretch and seemed to fit in nicely with the lineup, but this may be shaping up to be an offseason of transition for the club.

That might not have always been the plan, as general manager Matt Arnold told reporters he was "very shocked" when Counsell departed for the Cubs.

"We've been super supportive of him and his opportunity to assess the market," he added. "That was up to him."

One of the things that made Counsell so successful in Milwaukee was his ability to compete with payrolls that were much smaller than some of his primary competitors, including in Chicago. The Brewers were just 19th in payroll last season, nearly $40 million below the league average, yet they won the NL Central and made the playoffs for the fifth time in six years.

While they fell short of the World Series during that span, the run of success within the market constraints was notable. Those market constraints may be a factor this offseason if the Brewers do decide to trade some of their key players.

It remains to be seen whether that would mean players such as Christian Yelich or Corbin Burnes, but Rosenthal's report made it seem like nobody was off the table.

If Milwaukee is a seller this offseason and the Cubs are aggressive after adding Counsell, the balance of power in the division may be quite different in 2024.

It's that time of year again—agent Scott Boras is pulling out every turn of phrase and pun he can to shamelessly promote the financial interests of his clients.

Here's what he had to say about Cody Bellinger:

"Chicago got the comforts of a 'Full Belli.' They're going to have to loosen their belts to keep Bellinger."

- Scott Boras on Cody Bellinger's free agency pic.twitter.com/J1IpB31ps7

— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) November 8, 2023

"When we came to Chicago, he just feasted on Major League pitching," Boras said, going full Thanksgiving in his comments. "I think Chicago got the comforts of a 'Full Belli.' So they're going to have to loosen their belts to keep Bellinger."

Where's Waldorf and Statler when you need them?

But Bellinger did outplay the one-year, $17.5 million "prove it" contract he signed with the Cubs ahead of the 2023 season, hitting .307 with 26 homers, 97 RBI, 95 runs and a .881 OPS. The former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP is arguably the top free agent on the market not named Shohei Ohtani.

The Athletic's Jim Bowden predicted that the Cubs would re-sign Bellinger to a six-year, $144 million deal this winter, giving him both a yearly raise and long-term security. It just will require the team's payroll increasing by a pant size or two.

Count New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns among those who were stunned to see the Chicago Cubs hire Craig Counsell as their new manager.

"I didn't see that coming," Stearns told reporters while expressing he still has a good relationship with Counsell even though he will be managing in Chicago instead of New York:

David Stearns talks about Craig Counsell heading to the Cubs:

"I didn't see that coming...I love Craig. Ultimately, he made the right decision for himself." pic.twitter.com/pKtpOj9EiC

— SNY (@SNYtv) November 7, 2023

Part of what made the announcement so shocking is the reality that the Cubs already had a manager in David Ross. They didn't figure to be one of the teams in pursuit of Counsell since there wasn't a vacancy.

Yet the North Siders decided to fire Ross and jump at the chance to add someone who is widely regarded as one of the best managers in the league. It surely didn't hurt that the move also was a blow to the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers, who now need to find a new manager.

"This is no knock on Rossy, who I think incredibly highly of, but Craig is at the very top of the game," Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters Tuesday. "It's hard to rank managers, but he's at the very top of the game."

While the Mets were connected to Counsell as a potential landing spot after they fired Buck Showalter, Will Sammon of The Athletic reported the Cubs' offer "was significantly higher than" New York's.

Instead, the Mets hired former New York Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza as their new manager.

Mendoza may end up being excellent, but Counsell is a known commodity who led the Brewers to the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. They were also competing with a lower payroll than National League competitors such as the Cubs and Mets, but that didn't stop him from maximizing the production from his team.

The pressure will now be on Mendoza to help turn things around in New York, especially if he will be compared to Counsell throughout the 2024 campaign.

The Chicago Cubs have missed the playoffs the last three years and are looking to change that in "the short term and the long term."

That is why they hired Craig Counsell as their new manager and fired David Ross in the process.

"My job is to figure out how to win as many games as we possibly can in the short term and the long term and there was nothing about this move that didn't feel like it met that criteria," president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters Tuesday.

He also said, "This is no knock on Rossy, who I think incredibly highly of, but Craig is at the very top of the game. It's hard to rank managers, but he's at the very top of the game."

Counsell managed the National League Central-rival Milwaukee Brewers the past nine years and led them to a 707-625 record and five playoff appearances. The Brewers won the division in two of the past three seasons and often overachieved against teams, such as the Cubs, with higher payrolls on the roster.

He is widely regarded as one of the game's best managers, and Chicago responded by making him the highest-paid manager in the league.

It surely wasn't lost on the front office that hiring Counsell would also be a blow to the Brewers, which is the team the Cubs are attempting to catch in the NL Central. The financial aspect of it may have also been something of a signal that the plan is to be aggressive this offseason in an effort to quickly put a winning club on the field.

Ross went 262-284 during his four seasons as Chicago's manager. The team seemed to be in position for a playoff spot this past year before a late collapse, which may have ultimately cost him his job.

The question now is which players the Cubs will add this offseason to play for Counsell.

Cody Bellinger was their top offensive player in 2023, but he is a free agent. Chicago has also been connected to Shohei Ohtani and trade rumors involving Juan Soto, so there could be another big splash at some point this offseason.

Chicago has a chance to change the balance of power in the NL Central this offseason, and Hoyer's comments suggested hiring Counsell was a part of that process.