He’s not the best guard in the nation.
He’s not the best shooter in the nation.
He’s not even the best NBA prospect in the nation.
Swishscout.com has him ranked 17th on their prospect big board, while similar recruiting services have a similar read on his stock in the 2011 prep class.
Then what makes Jabari Brown’s commitment so valuable?
Unlike many of the players ranked ahead of him, Brown is the surest long-term investment that a program has right now.
Brown, who hails from Oakland, CA, is a versatile guard that is a national name because of his dynamic game.
Deadly from 3, creative off the dribble, sets up teammates with ease, and can flat out score. He has a game that bodes well in an up-tempo system and he's shown signs he can take on the role of being an offense’s primary option.
Perhaps more importantly, Jabari Brown is not a great NBA prospect right now, and that is an asset for NCAA basketball within itself. Brown can be a great player who will do well in college, but needs time to develop his game before he can move on.
So,why does that matter more to a program, as opposed to getting a higher ranked ‘one and done’ prospect?
First, look at the program Brown has committed to. The Oregon Ducks are a team that are reeling after the departure of nearly half its roster and firing coach Ernie Kent.
Dana Altman, the new head coach who runs a similar style offense, basically has to rebuild the program from scratch after losing players to transfer this off-season. He still has some key players left over in Malcolm Armstead, EJ Singler, and Joevan Catron, but recruiting is a big piece to building their future success.
With Jabari Brown, he has a player who can become a national name in a few years.
Jabari can run and play with the fast paced system, and can get hot from 3. If he stays for 3-4 years, Brown will likely become the face of the men’s basketball program. It’s a beneficial relationship where Brown brings back Oregon’s program, and in return, he gets the recognition and credibility to make the next step.
As is, Brown is overly trigger happy from 3, doesn’t have great size and build for an NBA SG, and he is an underdeveloped playmaker. He will get better, develop, and bring veteran leadership to the program over his tenure; something the program hasn’t had since the days of Aaron Brooks.
Best-case scenario, he becomes a household name and improves his draft stock for the NBA. Brown can become a seasoned player for the Ducks, and prove he can be a contributor on an NBA roster during his college career.
Looking at the recent history of Pac-10 Basketball, it’s a league that was amongst the best in the nation just a few years ago.
Suddenly, the high caliber recruits that were being brought in opted to enter the league after a year or two, leaving numerous teams to rebuild without them.
The conference is littered with examples of prominent players leaving early.
There’s Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and Jrue Holiday at UCLA; Jerryd Bayless, Marcus Williams and Jordan Hill at Arizona; OJ Mayo and DeMar DeRozen at USC; Brooke and Robin Lopez at Stanford; James Harden at Arizona State, and Spencer Hawes at Washington.
As a result, a program with stability and experience takes the Pac-10 regular season title with Cal-Berkeley, and a seasoned UW team wins the conference tournament in 2010.
Of all the teams listed above, UCLA was the only team to make the Final Four with its talent, albeit 3 years in a row. The teams that are building for the long term, as opposed to the short, are the ones who are reaping the benefits.
In recent NCAA Basketball history, ‘three’ is the magic number. Third year laden talent with a core of at least three big time players is doing the trick. Those teams are consistently coming up with big wins in the tournament and taking home the titles.
The University of Florida is a solid example of this, and maybe the only exception. Back to back championships in 2006 and ’07, with a core of tenured and talented players. Names like Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer, who were breakout sophomore stars that ran away with the title in ’06 during a year of tournament craziness.
They repeated the next year during their junior campaigns in a more conventional way because of their experience.
In ’08, The Kansas Jayhawks had key juniors stars in Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers, and sophomore Darrell Arthur.
The ’09 North Carolina team had key juniors Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, and senior Tyler Hansbrough.
The ’10 Duke Blue Devils had juniors Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, and senior Jon Scheyer.
Clearly, the teams with star powered tenure and those destined for the NBA are the ones coming out on top. That’s not to say that freshman phenoms can’t contribute, as they can play a big part like Derrick Rose, Greg Oden, and Michael Conley did.
But, having veterans is what is putting teams consistently over the top.
Getting ‘One and Done’ type players for your NCAA program right now is almost like making a deal with the devil.
If a program is lucky, they might get one good or outstanding year from the player, two if they are lucky (Blake Griffin at Oklahoma, for example). However, the program is immediately forced to reload that roster spot and routinely change their game plan from year to year.
The best example of this today is Jon Callipari and the Kentucky Wildcats. Last year, they were loaded with fabulous freshman John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Eric Bledsoe, but only made it to the Elite 8, where their inexperience proved to be their undoing. They are left with nothing to build on, as all their key pieces are gone.
This year they have reloaded with Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight, and Doron Lamb, but what are the odds any of them sticks around after this season?
Again, they have a great incoming class next year with Marquis Teague, Michael Gilchrist, Anthony Davis, and Kyle Wiltjer, but all of them likely wants to be ‘One and Done.’
Elite players are flocking to Kentucky, not because they want to do well as a team, but because they want to improve their NBA draft stock. They are amongst the most talented players, but want to cash in as soon as possible at the NBA factory, and could probably care less about success in NCAA Basketball.
There have been multiple ‘One and Done’ talents, such as Kevin Durant, Michael Beasely, and OJ Mayo who have failed to go any further than the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament.
The one recent exception to a freshman leading a team to the title is Carmelo Anthony at Syracuse. For the ‘One and Done’, college basketball just becomes a necessary year detour before starting their NBA career.
With the ‘One and Done,’ there can be consequences as well.
OJ Mayo’s recruitment and tenure at USC was plagued by scandal, ultimately ending in the vacancy of victories and loss of scholarships.
With Eric Bledsoe going to Kentucky, there was a story that came out about extra benefits and payments for his commitment to the Wildcats.
Even today, there is still controversy swirling around Anthony Davis heading to Lexington with his family and allegedly taking money.
Callipari made a similar play at Memphis with Derrick Rose, and left the Tigers with sanctions from the NCAA upon his departure. It's a dicey business that is often surrounded by close scrutiny and consequences, if not executed properly.
Unfortunately, making the dicey move to get the commitment is often what makes the difference.
More often than not, the ‘One and Done,’ 5-star caliber player comes with high expectations. They will either fail to live up to them in their one-year and then leave early because they have NBA potential, or have a great year and leave early because their stock improves. Either way, the program becomes discombobulated after their departure, and has to go back to the drawing board too soon.
‘One and Done’ becomes like a drug to programs, where you either have to keep yout habit fed in order to win—like Kentucky—or just enter into rehab to get clean—like USC.
It’s all a matter of stats and stock versus tenure and wins.
Are you in it for the short-term hype and NBA potential, or for the long term wins and program stability?
This isn’t to say that ‘One and Done’ players aren’t great NCAA prospects and don’t have good intentions, but it all comes down to money and bettering their situations while they can.
Duke is the one program that has consistently been able to bring in high caliber players and keep them in their system for an extended period of time. Perhaps most importantly, Duke has done it with great success and no controversy.
It’s a new era in College Basketball, but as usual, whoever can adapt their program and build for the future, will have the best long term success.