Washington Huskies Basketball

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Team records:

Washington: 25-9 SU, 15-18 ATS
New Mexico: 30-4 SU, 18-14-1 ATS

New Mexico vs UW Odds
Despite the seeding Washington is the favourite in this one at -1.5 (-110)
New Mexico +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 150.5

This second round matchup will take place in San Jose, CA. at 5:50PM.

The last time these two team met was in 2005. Washington won 81-71. No key players from this contest played in that game.

It was far from an impressive performance but New Mexico got the win on Thursday. What was really evident from the game against Montana is how small New Mexico is.

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Lucky for the Lobos Montana has more size than Washington so that exposure may not hurt them in round two.

Darrington Hobson had a nice game with 11 points, 11 boards and six assists but he has to be more aggressive. Against the Grizzlies he was third on the team in shots taken. It should be a fantastic matchup between him and Husky wing man Quincy Pondexter (love the names too).

Washington is a better team than Montana but their style of play is exactly what the Lobos are looking for. The question is who can play it better.

When I previewed Marquette-Washington I inferred that the winner of the matchup between Pondexter and Lazar Haywood would likely decide the game.

Their final stat lines were not hugely different but Pondexter took over the last 10 minutes of the game including hitting the game winner.

Against New Mexico Pondexter will have similar duel with Hobson. Both players are athletic and strong but I would give the edge to QP who has more experience and must be brimming with confidence these days. Pondexter also has the better supporting cast and the Huskies lack of beef inside will not be a weakness against the Lobos. 

Interesting stat from yesterday’s game. Only one Husky who took more than one shot did not make at least 50% of his attempts last night.

That player was Pondexter who had a slow start.

If the rest of the team can maintain their efficiency Washington is going to be a very tough out.

Betting Trends:

Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Mexico is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
NEW MEXICO is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.

Free Huskies vs. Lobos CBB Pick

Looks like the odds makers have caught on to the fact that for a 3 seed the Lobos might not be very good and that the Huskies might have been under seeded at 11. Unfortunately this takes away my underdog angle as I think Washington will win another close game. Pondexter will outperform Hobson and the back court of Isaiah Thomas and Venoy Overton will be too much for the Lobos to handle.

Score prediction: Washington 77 – New Mexico 73 

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A little less than a week ago, a pivotal moment in Washington basketball capped a dramatic come from behind 79-75 victory over a veteran regular-season championship California team in the Pac-10 Tournament in Los Angeles.

Last night, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in San Jose, the Huskies came back from a bigger deficit against quality Big East Conference opponent Marquette to snare a nail-biting 80-78 victory.

The adage “great players step up in big moments” is accompanied by “great players step up at crucial moments of big games,” and both adages applied as senior Quincy Pondexter led the offensive assault late in the game, culminating in a shot with 1.7 seconds left that will be ever remembered in discussions among Husky faithful.

After a tough 1-of-7 first half from the field, Pondexter led a Husky assault back from a 60-45 deficit that prompted many watching to conclude that the tough Marquette squad, led by laser-shooting Lazar Hayward and Darius Johnson-Odom, had punched its ticket to Saturday afternoon’s next round—which the Huskies would presumably watch at home in Seattle on television.

“We didn’t want to go home,” Pondexter said afterwards, and his final heroics insured that the Huskies will not.

The 6'6" senior from Fresno had the ball in his hands after a Marquette turnover gave the Huskies what coaches pray for in close games—the game’s final shot with a chance to win.

"Yo-yoing" with a dribble and counting off the seconds, the speedy Pondexter then drove to the hoop and used the backboard to complete a nifty underhand scoop shot with 1.7 seconds remaining for the win.

Spark plug sophomore guard Isaiah Thomas supplied numerous first half heroics with 17 points and 19 for the night alongside Pondexter’s 18, while Elston Turner connected for four three-point buckets and 14 for the evening.

When the Huskies fell behind 60-45, coach Lorenzo Romar in the ensuing timeout concluded that a tougher, more pressing defense was needed to prevent Marquette’s three-point-range sharpshooters from scoring.

The aggressive defense that had bailed the Huskies out of so many tough games at crucial times was there again when needed, as Washington outscored its opponent from that point to the buzzer by a devastating 35-18 margin.

The Huskies win with a combination of burning speed in the transition game and a sharply cloying defense that seeks to suffocate the opposition and throw it off its game.

This will be the two-pronged strategy Washington will unfold again in seeking victory Saturday afternoon against tough No. 3 seed New Mexico, which was able to overcome Montana to advance to the next round.

This first day of the opening round of the NCAA Tournament exemplified why it is called March Madness. Five teams seeded 10th or higher won.

Ohio throttled Georgetown, Old Dominion slipped by Notre Dame, and Saint Mary’s defeated Richmond. These three victories were considered upsets, and each of these games were thrilling.

But, aside from the edge-of-your-seat atmosphere of Robert Morris’ heartbreaking loss to Villanova, three contests were truly magical.

The Vanderbilt Commodores were not a title contender, but it wasn’t surprising to see them picked as a Sweet 16 participant.

The 13th-seeded Murray State Racers stationed in Murray, Kentucky set out to make sure they didn’t make it out of the first round—and they stunningly accomplished their goal.

The NCAA Tournament is amazing to watch in part because seedings don’t necessarily mean anything. Yes, Murray State is from a lesser-known conference, while Vanderbilt is from the very difficult and well-known SEC, but that doesn’t mean their talent level wasn’t superior.

Double-digit seeds defeating high-profile opponents are considered upsets, but are they really?

Murray State not only played like they were the better team, but they were the better team. Vanderbilt was extremely efficient down the stretch, hitting a wide range of big shots, but the Racers matched them, and drained the final.

After a miss by their guard, B.J. Jenkins, bounced off a Commodore and out of bounds, head coach Billy Kennedy pulled a play previously uncalled out of a hat, wanting guard Isacc Miles to take the last shot.

Miles took the inbounds pass with four seconds left on the right wing, penetrated in the middle and, with nowhere to go, spun around and passed to Danero Thomas, the proclaimed third option, who dribbled around two defenders and pulled up from 17-feet.

His wide-open attempt swished through , and bedlam ensued. A dog-pile formed on the other end of the court, with the Racers racing in joyous celebration. Vanderbilt’s A.J. Olgilvie collapsed to the ground in agony. This is why it’s called March Madness.

And it was only the beginning. Hours later, the Washington Huskies won in similar fashion, and then Wake Forest after that.

The Huskies tried to make a statement that the Pacific-10 isn’t all bad, and they proved there is at least one good team in the conference. They hung with sixth-seeded Marquette behind the play of spunky guard Isaiah Thomas, going back and forth for the majority before the final seconds decided the outcome.

Immensely-talented forward Quincy Pondexter started the contest slow, but finished with a bang. He grabbed a Golden Eagles miss with 34 seconds left, and it was presumed the Huskies would call a timeout to set up a final play...but with the game tied, and the ball in the hands of their best player, head coach Lorenzo Romar let it play out.

Pondexter dribbled at the top, waited for the clock to wind under ten seconds, and made his move. He drove into the lane on the right side, leaped, maneuvered his way under a Marquette defender, and banked in a off-balance short-jumper for the win.

The finish was ever-so exciting, even though it meant another loss for my bracket, but the conclusion to the Wake Forest-Texas game was better.

The Longhorns jumped out to a eight-point lead with three minutes remaining in overtime, but the Demon Deacons would not go quietly against a team that was ranked No. 1 in the country earlier this season.

A put-back dunk by Tony Woods and a pair of free-throws cut the deficit in half, but a jumper by Texas’s J’Covan Brown stretched the margin back to six with two minutes left.

Brown wasn’t done making an impact, but his play that followed was helped Wake Forest significantly. With a chance to drain some clock, and perhaps go ahead by eight or nine with a minute remaining, Brown drove upcourt with a minute and 30 seconds left and tried impatiently to shrug off the Deacon defense.

At halfcourt he used his arm to create space, an illegal move that sent the defender flying. The referee noticed and whistled Brown for a offensive foul. This was the beginning fo the end for the Longhorns.

Woods capitalized with another put-back dunk, trimming the lead to four. The Deacons would have to foul, and after letting 19 seconds drain off the clock, they fouled the right guy. Brown was sent the line, and promptly concluded his nightmarish minute—missing both free-throws to keep the door wide-open for Wake Forest.

Again, the Deacons took advantage of Brown’s inabilities as they grabbed another offensive rebound. Ari Stewart corralled the miss, was fouled, and did what Brown couldn’t—hitting a pair of free-throws to make it a one-possession game, 78-76, with 35 seconds left.

There was no difference between shot and game-clock, so Wake Forest was forced to foul. Brown redeemed himself, making a pair at the stripe, but after a frantic and clutch three-pointer by Stewart, Texas forward Gary Johnson wasn’t as lucky. He was fouled by guard Ishmael Smith, and clanged both free-throws.

Woods had made Brown pay, and now it was Smith’s turn to make Johnson the goat.

Smith dribbled on the left wing, crossed over his defender, and launched. His leaner from 17-feet swished through , and after a desperate heave by Texas fell woefully short, the Deacons celebrated the thrilling victory, capping a magnificent day of college basketball.

These three finishes were extraordinary...and these three weren’t the only buzzer beaters: Northern Iowa’s Ari Farokhmanesh dashed UNLV’s hopes by canning a 25-footer with under five seconds remaining. Four games decided in the final seconds.

What will the second day of the tourney have in store? It will be hard-pressed to duplicate this day of madness...but it’s the NCAA Tournament! Expect the unexpected.

Starting the season, the University of Washington basketball program looked destined to take part in March Madness 2010.

Just before Christmas the team pulled off a win over Texas A&M, and it looked like things might go as planned.

It turned out that was the best victory they’ve had all season so far.

The confident Huskies seemed to play like they could just turn it on at any time and thought they could roll straight through the Pacific-10 conference.

While the Huskies have a ton of ability, they hardly played up to that during the regular season. Because of that, they needed a strong showing in the Pac-10 tournament to even receive a bid.

Washington couldn’t get it rolling in time to take the regular season title, but one positive is they’ve gotten hot at the right time.

A team that couldn’t manage a road victory until the 25th game of the season ended with a four-game road winning streak heading into the Pac-10 tournament, and then of course won the three neutral site games as well.

The Huskies are led by senior Quincy Pondexter and his 19.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. They feature one other scorer over 15 ppg, Isaiah Thomas at 17.

The Huskies like to place a fast-paced running style and spread the ball around to different players. They are much more comfortable on the run than taking jump shots and have streaky jump shooters. That could be a problem come March Madness time.

Despite their struggles during the regular season, Washington never lost its confidence and still plays with the swagger it started the year with.

On defense the Huskies like to play a lot of man and try to create turnovers for fast breaks.

On the year the Huskies led in scoring, rebounding, and turnover margin in the Pac-10.

Going into the first round the Huskies (24-9) are averaging 79 points per game and giving up 69.9.

Matching up against Washington is the Marquette Golden Eagles (22-11).

Like Washington, Marquette relies heavily on their guards. They are at their best when they are penetrating and dishing out to their excellent shooters. The Golden Eagles have three shooters averaging over 37 percent from three-point range!

The Golden Eagles will rely on their ability to take care of the ball and shoot to win games.

Marquette features two players with scoring averages over 15 ppg, Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler.

While the Huskies aren’t overwhelmingly tall, they do have a height advantage against Marquette.

Marquette goes into this game averaging 72 points and giving up 64.

This is a very winnable game for both teams. If Washington can play at a fast pace and take care of the ball, they should have a good night.

For Marquette, they need to have their shots drop. A cold shooting night would be fatal for the Golden Eagles. They have been tested much more, however, in the Big East conference, which could tip the scales in their favor.

The Huskies are starting to play well at the right time and match up in the first round against a team that doesn’t overwhelm them with height. It should be a good, close game.

I have the Huskies pulling off the upset 74-68.

Article originally featured at The Sports Chronicle Blog.

After Lorenzo Romar’s Washington Huskies were blown out at Galen Center by the USC Trojans, the question that had been on the minds of basketball minds for some time resounded with a flourish.

“What happened to the Washington Huskies?” the shocked fans of Seattle wanted to know.

Kevin O’Neill, the experienced, savvy USC head coach, had the answer. The Huskies were missing the experience that led to the school’s first conference crown since 1953 and the days of superstar Bob “Hooks” Houbregs.

That experience of last season was highlighted by two big names, Jon Brockman and Justin Dentmon, who provided senior leadership as a forward and guard combination. Meanwhile, star forward Quincy Pondexter was the sole senior on this season’s squad.

Fresno flash Pondexter provided great leadership all season long, but the experience lag was responsible for many of the problems the team encountered leading up to the important final portion of the season.

Alas, the talent was there, and it was just a question of time, and now the Huskies, who seemingly could not win a game on the road, defeated Stanford and interstate rival Washington State while sweeping Oregon rivals Oregon State and Oregon away from home heading into the Pac-10 Tournament at Staples Center in Los Angeles.

The team that a few weeks earlier was being consigned by many to an NIT tourney bid at best and certainly a contingent shut out of the NCAA Tournament competition, came alive, playing with hunger and conviction.

Pondexter supplied flash at both ends of the court in scoring and rebounding. Meanwhile, talented sophomore Isaiah Thomas, the conference’s No. 1 freshman last season, blended a skilled shooting touch and tenacious defense. Thomas’ shooting touch was superb at the three-point line, where his jump shot found the mark in key situations.

The Pondexter-Thomas duo was augmented by the developmental find of the season, the London born junior with the gigantic wing span, Matthew Brian-Amaning. Down the stretch, Brian-Amaning was a monster on the boards who also secured important points that moved the pendulum in the Huskies’ favor.

After finishing the conference season strong and garnering an 11-7 record, good enough for third place, the team’s intensity was evident at Staples Center last week in the conference tournament.

Craig Robinson’s Oregon State team provided a tough zone and slowed the game up noticeably in the first half of the Huskies’ initial round test. After a slow first half, Pondexter and Thomas led the charge. The Huskies began to move up and down the court swiftly at both ends, as befitting their style, and secured a come from behind 59-52 win.

The second round provided an engagement with a Stanford team fresh from an upset over the conference’s second place team, Arizona State, a loss that proved the ultimate factor in keeping the Sun Devils out of the NCAA tourney. An aggressive defense kept the Cardinal off balance all night, as Washington prevailed 79-64.

That left the toughest assignment of all, confronting the senior laden conference titlist, Mike Montgomery’s California Golden Bears. Cal in earlier tournament competition had impressively defeated Oregon and UCLA.

The result was one of the classics of Pac-10 Tournament history, a down to the wire nail biter between two teams determined to win and detesting the thought of losing.

The Huskies secured a 79-75 win in the team’s most outstanding performance of the season. Washington matched the conference’s champion in rebounds with 31 apiece and, when the chips were down, converted free throws so adroitly as to edge out the conference’s premier charity stripe team. The Huskies converted an almost perfect 17-for-18, while Cal was also brilliant with 20-for-23.

Poindexter scored 18 points, on par with his seasonal average of 20, while diminutive sparkplug Thomas kicked in for 16. Thomas’ value was augmented by the tenacious defense he provided against Jerome Randle, the talented senior who was selected as the conference’s Most Valuable Player by the coaches. Randle was held to 12 points.

Matthew Brian-Amaning supplied quality minutes down the stretch, blocking shots and garnering clutch rebounds, finishing with nine points and five rebounds.

So now the Huskies have won 12 of their last 14. Momentum is with them, but the next stop is a formidable hurdle supplied by Marquette in first round NCAA Tournament action. The Huskies meet Marquette Thursday in San Jose.

Win or lose, the season was a success, as Lorenzo Romar brought his players along in such a manner as to peak at just the right time, after many had decided that it would be “wait until next year.”

The University of Washington’s (UW) Men’s Basketball program entered the 2009 season as the defending Pac-10 Champions, full of expectations and ranked in the pre-season top 10 by Sports Illustrated .

With Jon Brockman moving on to the NBA, everyone knew this was going to be a guard-oriented team. Some of Romars’ best teams in Montlake were built this way.

So what happened? How did we go from a pre-season lock to go to the NCAA Tournament, to having to win the PAC-10 Tournament for a bid?

The team started out strong enough, feasting on the cupcakes in the early part of the schedule. It wasn’t until they hit the road, like all teams from Seattle it seems, that the trouble began.

Like their football counterparts, the Washington basketball program could have had an entirely different season with just a couple of victories on the road. The football team was one win away from bowl eligibility. How much more secure would a NCAA bid be with a couple more road victories for Romar's guys?

The first road loss wasn’t bad—an overtime loss to Texas Tech. The problem is the fact that Washington did not get a road victory until game 25 of the season!  After that first victory over Stanford, they figured out how to win on the road finally, ending the season with three straight road victories.

By that time, it was too late to make up the deficit, and now they must rely on the PAC-10 Tournament for a NCAA Tourney bid. This is particularly disappointing considering that the PAC-10 looks to be a one bid conference this year.

Washington did not resemble the same team on the road as they did at home and, because of this, they find themselves in their current situation.

One of the most noticeable issues was the defense. At home, Washington gave up 67 points a game, but on the road that number jumps up to 75.

Defense hasn’t been the only problem away from Seattle.

Washington averaged 84 points a game at home, but only managed to put up an average of 72 on the road.

Everyone knew how big of an impact Jon Brockman was while he was at Washington.

He was the enforcer down low, the one big body that could fight the opposing team’s front court, while the rest of the roster played at the frantic pace for which the Huskies have been known.

Romar knew this and had recruited what he had hoped would be a player that could step right in for Brockman.

While the recruiting and committing part went well for the University of Washington and Charles Garcia, somewhere in the admission process Garcia was denied and ended up playing for Cameron Dollar at Seattle University.

With Brockman’s replacement playing on the other side of the city, Washington learned a hard lesson this year. Even if you are a running and gunning team, there still needs to be a big man on the roster to mix it up with the opposing team’s front court.

The forwards on the current team are more comfortable outside of the paint. It is good to have longer athletic bodies that can run with your guards, but not at the expense of a true low post threat. There is some potential on the roster, but the young talent needs to develop.

Brockman was the perfect balance for Washington. A lumbering big man like Spencer Hawes does not fit the Husky offense, but Brockman offered that big body with the ability to hustle up and down the floor.

The regular season wasn’t entirely disappointing. We got to see the emergence of Senior Quincy Pondexter, who led the team with 20 points a game.  A 21-win season is hardly a horrible season, and generally that would be a good enough record to get a NCAA bid.

The PAC-10 was incredibly down this year, and the Huskies were unable to take advantage. The path was set for back-to-back regular season PAC-10 Championships and a move from the upper half of the PAC-10 in basketball, to the elite.

Elite teams win on the road, however, and that is something with which both college and professional teams from Seattle struggle.

The question of why Seattle teams struggle away from home is an open ended one.

For a professional team like the Seahawks, traveling to the East Coast and the three hour time difference certainly has an effect.

Huskies athletics tend to stay in the Western half of the country the majority of the time, though.

Another possibility is home court advantage.

A team that plays with such energy and intensity like Washington does can’t help but feel a little extra boost at home. Great teams find a way to reproduce that energy on their own, and Washington did not find a way in 2009.

There is still the PAC-10 Tournament left to play, and the possibility of the Huskies playing in the NCAA Tournament is still realistic. This team does not appear to be set up for a very strong run if they did manage to get that bid, however.

This year could have gone much better, obviously, but the Huskies will only lose one senior this year. Granted he is the most productive player, but the core of this young team returns. Abdul Gaddy had a slow start, but by next season he should be more prepared.

Last season’s PAC-10 Freshman of the Year Isaiah Thomas will be back and stands to gain the most from a more productive Gaddy, taking the pressure of I.T. in the point guard position and letting Thomas play a Nate Robinson-type role.

It is up to Romar to find a true power forward/center for next year, or we may be seeing more of the same. They come with a lot of flash, energy, and are exciting to watch, but not strong enough to finish the job away from home.

So far Romar has a verbal commitment from athletic PF/SF Desmond Simmons, who looks to have some potential in filling that role for Washington.

The Huskies will look to take the PAC-10 Tournament and earn an NCAA bid starting this Saturday against Oregon State.

        Thurday's loss against USC pretty much knocked the dawgs out of contention for an at large bid in the NCAA tournament. If the Huskies miraculously win the Pac-10 tournament for the first time since 2005, they will clinch an undeserved berth to the tournament. With only one win on the road and a mediocre 7-7 conference as of Friday, coach Romar could be fired.

        You probably think i'm crazy right now, but only one tournament bid in the last 4 seasons is not good by any standards. Also, 1 road win matches the 2006-2007 season total. Failing to win on the road is a problem that can only be blamed on one person, the head coach.

        With only one recruit signed, the huskies still lack a proven team leader for next season and they have not been able to fill the hole that Jon Brockman left. Brockman carried the team through most of the season last year, with some help from Pondexter towards the end of the year and Pondexter has been a leader this year. The Huskies have struggled this year with Pondexter, Imagine next season without him.

       The Huskies are first in the Pac-10 in rebounding this year, but losing the leader in rebounds(Pondexter 8.1 RPG), will force the Dawgs to rely on Matthew Bryan-Amaning(5.2) and Justin Holiday(4.1) to bring down the boards. Those account for about 1 more total rebound a game than Quincy, but losing 20 ppg hurts any lineup.

       With Romar's normally solid recruiting going down the drain, it could time move past the Romar ERA. Romar has given Husky fans some good memories(2005 #1 seed), but Lo-Ro has not been getting the Huskies into the postseason consistently and that is  a priority for a NCAA Basketball coach.

      There are endless possibilities for a possible replacement coach, they include: former UW assistant and current Seattle U coach Cameron Dollar, but bringing in Dollar would keep the team in the same system that they have struggled to win in. New Mexico head coach Steve Alford could be a possibility if he wants to into a more elite conference. Alford has led the Lobos to a 24-3 record and #12 national ranking.

      It may not be the best decision to fire Romar after this season, but if the Dawgs miss the tournament again next year, they won't have a choice.

What an awesome win!  The Huskies looked really good.  They had by far their best offensive game, consistently moving the ball widely and decisively from tip to final buzzer; their defense was highly disruptive; they dominated the boards.

As the team prepares to go back on the road, continuing to optimize their rotation will bolster their chances to succeed.  Below are a couple of notes to that end.

Pinning Holiday On a Perimeter Shooter Limits His Ability to Change the Game on D

For a good chunk of the second half, Justin Holiday was assigned to defend one of the sun devils' knock-down shooters, the big white guy.

Because Holiday is such a good man-defender, it is very enticing to assign him to the opposition's best perimeter scorer.  He will likely shut him down and take him out of his game.

As useful as that is, and I don't want to undersell the impact of such an outcome, it pins Holiday to the perimeter.  One of the facets in which holiday is special is his ability to recover.  He has consistently been able to roam off his man to make a play and recover to cover guy in excellent offensive position. 

While roaming, Holiday affects the game on almost every possession.  He excels at interrupting passes, taking away passing lanes, altering and blocking shots as a help-defender, and rebounding the basketball.

When pinned to the perimeter (or the block, as discussed in my most recent post), he is unable to affect the game in this way.  He is so effective at altering the game off his man, I think shutting down (completely!) a perimeter scorer is not even the most he can do for the Huskies.  He's that dominant.

In support of this claim, when Holiday was given the assignment, the Huskies' defensive rebounding dropped noticeably.  The strong post player for the Sun Devils was able to score against the Husky bigs one-on-one several times.  Had Holiday been free to roam, he would have been able to contest from behind, likely altering or blocking the shot.

Suggs the Solution

I think the Huskies would have been even stronger on defense by placing Scott Suggs on the perimeter player and assigning Holiday elsewhere.  Suggs is a strong fit for the assignment.  He has good length, solid quickness, positions himself well on defense, and consistently works hard.

Doing so would have allowed Holiday to insert himself into lanes and help off the ball, where he is dominant. 

Suggs at the Offensive Two Improves the Efficacy of the Huskies' Offense and Defense

I think the Huskies would be even more effective on offense with Suggs at the offensive two, instead of a second point guard.  His shooting spreads the floor, he moves the ball well, making good decisions consistently, he is a strong defender—he is long, he positions himself well, and he works hard consistently. 

On defense, more generally than the specific point above, Suggs is far longer than Thomas and Venoy; consequently, he is able to disrupt passing lanes, which Thomas especially is unable to do.  He also increases defensive flexibility, as he can be switched to defend many opposing threes. 

Other Notes:

MBA's strong passing

Who knew MBA was such an effective passer?  He is actually really talented!  His passes have been crisp and accurate, and I've noticed him many times finding the less-obvious pass, finding a teammate in a position to make a play, or really stretching the defense. 

He made several passes across the lane to the opposite wing tonight that I thought were really impressive.  

Venoy's baseline baskets

For a short guy, Venoy Overton is incredibly effective at scoring off passes on the baseline.  All season long, he's been effective at running the baseline, catching a pass and scoring in amongst the trees. 

-Huskies' half-court offense decisive and productive for much of second half;

-UW's offense stagnant and turnover-prone with Isaiah Thomas and Venoy Overton together in the backcourt;

-Coach Romar's late-game lineup experimentation hurt Huskies @ UCLA and tonight;

-Justin Holiday an important factor in offense's productivity, and a game-changer on defense;

-Holiday, Pondexter, Suggs and Gaddy moved ball well in mid-range area of the floor all night long.

1.  For the majority of the second half, the Huskies' half-court offense looked as good as it has all season.   

The dynamic that stood out to me was the pace of ball movement.  The PGs got the ball out of their hands at the very beginning of the posession.  Off the ball movement was excellent:  decisive and purposeful.  Passes shared that dynamic.

The pace was by the most rapid I've seen from the Huskies, and it looked really good.  Players received the ball in positions to make moves against their man, and got a lot of looks and lanes.

Justin Holiday played big-time starter's minutes, and my perception was that this was a central factor in the Huskies' efficiency and productivity in the half-court.  Holiday, as has been his wont, kept the offense moving when he had the ball in his hand, making quick, incisive passes, or making offenses moves to open up passing lanes.  He really is a pleasure to watch, with his excellent basketball head and passing skills.

A second essential element was the complete change in style of Isaiah Thomas.  Typically Isaiah has initiated the offense in one of two ways:  either driving the lane, or dribbled extensively along the perimeter before making short passes to either a wing or the high post. 

In the second half, Thomas was getting the ball out of his hands IMMEDIATELY, allowing Holiday, Pondexter, and Suggs, most notably, to initiate the offense with sharp movement without the ball and crisp, productive passing.  It was a pleasure to watch.

Venoy did the same.  Movement with and without the ball was productive and decisive.

2.  For some reason, the offense melted into sludge at exactly the point when Overton and Thomas were put on the court together, for the first time in the second half.  As I recall, the same happened in the first half.

I think the main reason the offense dies so badly with them on the court together is that they both have very limited skills in the space inside the three-point line and outside the lane.  While Thomas has a serviceable midrange jumper, Venoy does not, and has little ability to put pressure on the defense from that distance. They are both weak passers from that area of the floor. 

Contrast their midrange skillset with the acumen that Holiday, Pondexter, Suggs, and Gaddy have demonstrated, and it perhaps becomes clear why the ball largely stays on the perimeter with Overton and Thomas on the floor together. 

Watching Thomas with Overton, I also started to get the sense that Isaiah, with a second point guard in the game, tends to direct most of his passes to the other guard, instead of entrusting his wings with the ball. 

Regardless, with Thomas and Overton in the game together, the ball rarely got past the perimeter, except on errant or stolen passes.  It was an alarming contrast to the wide-ranging and decisive movement that had characterized the offense for much of the half. 

3.  When he is guarding a wing (or the point), Justin Holiday is a dominating player on the defensive end.  

I wrote above that Justin Holiday was a central factor in the Huskies' productivity in the half-court offense.  He altered the game immeasurably on defense as well.  He had numerous blocks and shot alterations; tipped passes and altered passes; and rebounds, all while denying his man the ball for every second of the game. Holiday is a PLAYER, and deserves to receive big-time starter minutes in every game.

  To be most effective, however, he needs to be defending the wing (or the point), not banging inside.  On the perimeter, he is able to utilize his outstanding skillset to be a game-changing force on the defensive end.  His outstanding length and quickness and excellent positioning enable him to deny his man the ball, while disrupting passing lanes.  His elite recovery speed and quick rise enable him to be a dominant help defender, blocking and altering shots from behind and from the weakside, and getting his hands on numerous rebounds.

On the block, Holiday's length is negated, and stronger players can push him out of many plays.  His special abilities as a defensive basketball player are marginalized to a tremendous degree.  While it is tempting to play him down low due to his length, placing Holiday on the block disallows him to make the dominating, game-changing contributions to the Washington defense that he is fully capable of producing for 40 minutes.  Holiday is a productive enough player, on offense and defense, to configure the lineup to ensure that he is defending a perimeter player for 30-40 minutes every game, every weekend for the remainder of the season. 

4.  Coach Romar's late-game experimentation has hurt the Huskies in their last two close games (@ UCLA, Arizona).

This is the second straight close game (@ UCLA being the other) in which, late in the game, the coach has inserted a lineup that had not played together at all during the contest.  In the UCLA game, Romar put Overton and Gant on the court together for much of the final third of the second half.  I've written elsewhere that that is an especially weak offensive combination for the Huskies.  The outcome was that the Huskies offense deteriorated into ash for the final several minutes of the game, and Bruins were able to outscore the Huskies dramatically and even the score.

Tonight, the coach firstly inserted Thomas and Overton together for the last third of the second half; they had played together rarely during the game. The offense was stagnant and turnover prone for the remainder of the contest. 

Secondly, Coach Romar took all of his big men out of the game for the last 3-5 minutes of the game.  The result was that, time and again, the Wildcats were able to drive the lane and get an easy 2, whereas previously Breshers and MBA had effectively deterred such moves.  Worse, the Huskies were badly outrebounded, giving up multiple baskets on second-chance opportunities. On offense, UW lacked a player down low who could catch feeds on drives and generate offensive rebounds, or clear the boards for teammates to do so.

In both games, the Huskies were playing their best ball of the contest, generating notable margins and momentum, when, in the final segment of the game, the coach inserted a lineup that had not played together at all during the match.  The half-court offense deteriorated markedly: the Huskies struggled to get any kind of shot, and turned the ball over with forced passes and drives.  The opposition, taking advantage of the long scoring draught, outscored the Huskies and evened the score.

Lineups are about combinations of players that complement one another and make each other better. Each lineup is a system; changing a fifth or 2/5s of that system can produce seemingly disproportionate change.  It seems to me a decidedly losing gamble to insert a combination for the endgame that is untested, when several of the lineups used during the evening have been very productive, with the combination of five men--five personalities, minds, and skillsets--clearly complementing each other effectively. 

I recognize that lineup generation is influenced by the personnel inserted by the opposition; however, my impression is that that does not play a dominant factor with this team, especially as many of the players are versatile enough to play against multiple opposing lineups. 

It therefore seems like sticking with proven lineups in the endgame is a strategy that is likely to help the team.  If one does choose to implement a new combination, I believe a quick change is warranted if the offense slows markedly or the defense struggles to make stops, very preferably to a lineup that has played productively that night.

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This was an exciting win, and it keeps the Huskies in the race for the title.  I feel renewed hope each game, as the team seems to improve frequently.  I firmly believe that lineup choices will be the most essential factor in determining the shape of the remainder of the season.

 Watching the Huskies over the course of the season, it has seemed to me that there are certain players and combinations that fit together very poorly, and others that have excelled, or shown the potential to do so, and not played together nearly enough.

It is very understandable that it would take a long time to find good combinations on a consistent basis.  It seems likely to me that this has been an especially difficult group of players to separate into lineup combinations.  With an abundance of backcourt players, I would guess that it has been difficult to differentiate the players from one another in terms of their skillsets, athletic abilities, basketball smarts, and fit with one another.   Yet, finding the combinations that are able to excel together is a foundational step to success. 

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Regardless of their success the rest of the way, I always enjoy watching and rooting for the team.  The Huskies have a special place in my heart, in no small part because I know that the students on the team receive the opportunity to develop as persons and students, as well as athletes.  Go Dawgs! 

Dear Coach Lorenzo Romar,

Here are some personnel combinations I think would help the Huskies.

No. 1

Venoy Overton at the 1, Justin Holiday at the 2

Would the opposing team ever get their offense started? Holiday's quicks, length, and smarts on D will enable him to completely deny the ball to the 2. That will leave the opposing PG to attempt to initiate the offense against Venoy's man-pressure with no outlet to the second ball-handler.  

Overton 1, Holiday 2, + Quincy Pondexter and Matthew Bryan-Amaning

I'd love to see Overton run the ball up the back of the defense more often. He must be one of the fastest players in the country end to end with the ball; I suspect that even the best teams in transition D will consistently struggle to counter that.

QPon, Holiday, and MBA combine to make excellent trailers, frequently generating second and third-chance opportunities if Overton misses. 

They comprise the defensive combo most productive at generating turnovers and are the most potent at running the break once they do so.

I truly believe that if the Huskies are to generate TOs and offensive rebounds at the rate you are looking for, it will be with this combination.

No. 2

Isaiah Thomas paired with Scott Suggs or Holiday, not Overton or Abdul Gaddy

This isn't a criticism of any particular player, but of combinations of skill sets. None of the three point guards is an effective 2—Overton has limited scoring skills in half-court sets; Gaddy has scoring skills that are effective as a balance to his pure-point skills but does not put enough pressure on the D to open up space for Thomas; and Isaiah is more effective—by far—when the ball starts in his hands.

The consequence is that none of the three puts much pressure on the D in half-court sets without the ball in his hands, leaving the PG with the ball with a packed defense.

Nor is the two-point guard lineup an effective defensive tandem. While they used their quickness to generate turnovers against teams with slower guards such as Stanford and WSU, they are not athletically dominant enough to have done the same against teams such as Oregon or USC. 

If defense is the objective, Holiday is the best option. I have written elsewhere that he is one of the most potent wing defenders in the country, with an offensive game that is more productive for the 2 than either Overton or Gaddy.

If offense is the consideration, I believe Suggs is by far the best option at the 2. Suggs has repeatedly shown himself to be an effective three-point marksman. His presence forces the D to expand, opening up space for Thomas. If the defense sags inward to cover Isaiah, Suggs is the one 2 who can make them pay by adding three points to the Dawgs' scoreboard.

That is a highly valuable skill set with a scorer like Thomas, and especially with a pair of scorers like Thomas and Q-Pon.

Holiday has been, I believe, as or more productive an offensive player in the half-court than either Gaddy or Overton. He facilitates the offense by making smart and accurate passes and moving well without the ball, and he creates numerous second-chance opportunities on the boards. 

However, what sets him apart as an option at the 2 is his defense. As noted above, his physical skills and basketball IQ make him a shutdown defender on the wing. He can completely deny the ball to the opposing SG or roam and create havoc while still effectively covering his man on the wing.

The turnovers, loose balls, and offensive rebounds he generates are of tremendous value offensively, leading me to believe that he and Suggs are the two most effective options at the 2.

Players I'd like to see getting significantly less playing time

I want to preface this by emphasizing that the following is not a criticism of these young men as people, nor of their effort, dedication to the team, or even their game in the future.

Abdul Gaddy

Building a lineup is not about absolute talent, but the combinations of skill sets and actors that give the team the best chance to win. I believe that this season, Gaddy rarely fits into that equation. 

He is the third best PG on the team; he is not an effective enough scorer at the 2 to take pressure off Thomas; although he is a physically gifted and smart defender, he is not nearly as effective at that position as Holiday would be.

Although Gaddy is a talented, dedicated player, I believe that his minutes would be more beneficial to the team if played by Suggs and Holiday, who offer skill sets and decision-making that are very different from Overton and Thomas'. 

Darnell Gant

In fairness, his minutes have diminished markedly recently. For the team, this year, I think that's a good thing.

Despite his imposing frame, he just simply hasn't produced. He has not contributed at all offensively, and he has not rebounded nor defended well enough to justify taking minutes from MBA, Tyreese Breshers, or Holiday. 

A combination I never want to see

Gant and Overton

Overton is a player worth having on the court. He is one of the fastest in the country end to end with the ball; he plays intense man D; and his junior leadership is vital to the team's success.

However, he has generated very limited productivity in the half-court. He has been inaccurate with his passes and has often made poor decisions as to where to direct them. He has been unable to score or make a productive pass once he gets in the lane. His contribution has been limited to the occasional open three.

He is absolutely worth having out on the floor, but pairing him with Gant leaves two offensively useless players on the court simultaneously, putting FAR, FAR too much pressure on the other three players on the court.   

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To summarize:

A lot of Holiday at the 2. He is a game-changing defender. The guard combinations played thus far have been unable to generate turnovers against half of the teams in the Pac-10; Holiday would change that in a big way. His offensive game in the half-court is as or more effective for the 2 spot as either Overton or Gaddy.

Lots of Overton running up the opposition's back with Holiday and Pondexter trailing. 

It is worth noting that the combos suggested above would likely lead to a slight reduction in minutes for Thomas—down to 25, perhaps. While this seems counterintuitive at first, I think that, realistically, it makes sense. His game is built on movement—driving to the basket, especially. Fresher legs and more energy likely would mean an even more dynamic Isaiah Thomas. 

Coach, during your tenure, the Dawgs have always been at their best when effectively generating turnovers and second-chance opportunities and putting pressure on the defense in transition. I believe that Holiday at the 2 changes the entire dynamic of the lineup and of the game. I think that Suggs, as often as he can be put in, frees up a tremendous amount of space for Thomas and QPon to put pressure on the defense.