Philadelphia Flyers

Braydon Coburn has been very underappreciated during his tenure as a Philadelphia Flyer, and my hope is that will change during the 2014-15 season.

The Flyers have had some really talented defensemen around during Coburn's eight seasons in Philadelphia, and it seems like those players have somehow made Coburn look bad.

Maybe it's because he was a high draft pick, or because of his combination of size and speed, that Philadelphia fans expected so much of Coburn and have been so critical of him throughout his career.

But what many have failed to see, especially in the past couple of seasons, is just how valuable Coburn is to the Flyers' defensive corps.

With Kimmo Timonen's future in doubt, the time is unquestionably now for Coburn to finally take the reins and lead the Flyers from the back end.

Where the Flyers are at this point can and should be discussed (here's part of my own take), but Coburn is the best the Flyers have at this point, and they will rely on him heavily. He is not, however, a legitimate No. 1 defenseman from a skill standpoint.

But his effectiveness in carrying Craig Berube's mediocre blue line will be a major plot line of the 2014-15 season. There is a good chance that the Flyers will live and die by their defense this year.

Let's first take a look at the things Coburn does not do well. One of those things is score goals. He has not surpassed five goals in a season since the 2008-09 season, and his career high is a meager nine tallies.

He isn't a dynamic guy on the ice; there aren't many risks in Coburn's game, and an appearance on the highlight reel is an anomaly. He doesn't have the media or locker room presence of a Chris Pronger, but also isn't quite at the level of a quiet, wily veteran like Timonen. 

Coburn just goes out there and plays. He's defensive-minded, he's strong on the boards, he's resilient in front of the net and he is very consistent every night.

He never takes shifts off, stays healthy all season and rarely makes egregious mistakes at this point in his career.

His ability to eat up minutes on the ice is extremely valuable. He led the Flyers with an average of 22:36 of ice time per game in 2013-14, nearly two minutes more than Mark Streit, who had the third-most average ice time per game.

Coburn also led the Flyers by a wide margin in shorthanded time on ice per game, with an average of 3:59 compared to Sean Couturier's 3:25.

Furthermore, this graph from SomeKindofNinja shows how valuable Coburn is to the Flyers' defense from an advanced metrics standpoint.

He played against the second-best competition of all defensemen and started only 48.4 percent of his faceoffs in the offensive zone, yet still managed to put up a positive Corsi relative rating of 1.6. 

For comparison, just look at the guy with the big red circle right next to Coburn's, that of Andrew MacDonald. They had similar usage (faceoff percentage and quality of competition) ratings, but MacDonald was far, far worse at driving possession than Coburn.

Anyone who watches games knows that element of Coburn's game to be sound. He can corral the puck and get it out of the zone in a hurry, and he also makes nice passes to put his forwards in good spots.

There's no question that Coburn needs to generate some more offense this year. His total of 17 points in 82 games last year just won't fly in 2014-15.

The Flyers need him to shoot more, take more offensive responsibility, and continue to be reliable and consistent in the back end while eating up big chunks of ice time every single game.

On top of that, his leadership responsibility will be elevated as well, especially if Timonen decides to retire. Young defensemen like Shayne Gostisbehere, Samuel Morin and Robert Hagg are waiting just around the corner and will be looking to Coburn for an example.

It will be no easy task for Coburn to carry the Flyers' defense this year, but if he is successful, then it will be one major step towards reaching the playoffs again. 

Jakub Voracek is a supremely talented winger and legitimate first-line player who has put up solid numbers in the past while showing good chemistry with center Claude Giroux.

But those things, independent of each other, are not quite enough. If Voracek, now 25 years old, is able to put everything together and be a consistent scorer in 2014-15, he could be a major difference-maker for Philadelphia.

The question of whether or not Voracek will become a full-fledged star has huge implications for the offensive output of head coach Craig Berube's squad.

Last week, I delved into arguably the most crucial question facing an individual player on the Philadelphia Flyers this season: Will Sean Couturier take the next step in 2014-15?

Couturier's next step is different than Voracek's, seeing as he is much younger and plays a more defensive game.

Couturier's importance is so massive because the Flyers have a bit of uncertainty behind Giroux at center, and having a dominant two-way center who can kill penalties and be responsible in his own end is incredibly crucial to success.

Just look at teams like Los Angeles (with Anze Kopitar), Boston (Patrice Bergeron) and Chicago (Jonathan Toews). Now, nobody will expect Couturier to get in that category of players next season, but if he can take another step toward that joining that group, then the Flyers would be much better off.

Meanwhile, Voracek has proven himself to be a competent first-line winger. I certainly do not think he will regress at all, and the Flyers would be perfectly fine if he maintains his current level.

However, they could also get a real boost if he ascends to stardom and becomes the weapon that many people think he has the potential to be.

Before 2013-14, when he scored 62 points, Voracek's career-high point total actually came way back in 2009-10 with Columbus, when he put up a solid 50.

With that said, he scored at nearly a point-per-game pace in 2013 during the lockout-shortened season, and it was during stretches of that year when his star potential really shined.

He has the size, speed, skill and knack for scoring to become an elite winger. The biggest problem is that he sometimes doesn't seem to use those natural abilities on a consistent basis.

There's no question that he can take over games at times. He had three three-point games in 2013-14, and his dominance has been evident in some big games as well.

In order to get over that hump and become a true star, however, he has to make more of the small plays in routine situations and find ways to produce every night.

He and Giroux are right smack in the middle of their primes now and will be for the next couple of years. Voracek has a great opportunity to step up and take advantage of playing alongside a great talent like Giroux.

There's no one point total that signifies a "star," and it's impossible to quantify such a label. Nevertheless, the 75-point mark is a good place to start, along with being consistent night in and night out and scoring at clutch moments.

The Flyers are going to be riding their offense this year, and Voracek will have a lot of responsibility on his shoulders. He has the talent for it, but will he step up to the challenge?

This year, we will really get to see what Voracek is made of.

Few hockey teams win championships without getting good goaltending, but that will be particularly true for the 2014-15 Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers’ success this season will be very dependent on the performance of goalie Steve Mason, a player who has never put back-to-back winning seasons together during the course of his six-year NHL career.

Mason had a good year in goal for the Flyers last season. He finished with a 33-18-7 record and a 2.50 GAA. His .917 save percentage was his career best for a full season, and that includes his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season of 2008-09.

In the playoffs, Mason was even better, going 2-2 in the four games he was able to start with an impressive 1.97 GAA and a .939 save percentage.

Despite the solid performance last season, Mason still has his detractors. For example, broadcaster Jeremy Roenick had this to say about Mason at a charity golf tournament in July: “I like Steve Mason, but I don't think Steve Mason is the answer to winning the Stanley Cup" Roenick said on Philly Sports Talk as reported by CSNPhilly.com’s Mary Clarke. "I think you need an upper echelon defenseman, I think you need an upper echelon goaltender. The Flyers do not have either.”

There are a few facts to support Roenick’s analysis of Mason.

First, the 26-year-old Oakville, Ontario, native has never put together back-to-back solid seasons since he joined the NHL in 2008-09. Mason always follows a good season with a mediocre one, or even worse, a poor one. Can he be consistent enough to play well two straight seasons? The Flyers need the answer to that question to be yes.

“The thing that he's got to come back with is he's got be consistent from year to year," general manager Ron Hextall told Adam Kimelman of NHL.com. "That's what he's out to prove and that's what we're looking forward to seeing, the consistency from year to year."

Mason’s consistency will be a huge key for the Flyers. Last year, the Philadelphia defense was considered below average. The team struggled to stop opposing players and finished 20th in the league in goals allowed per game.

During the offseason, the Flyers lost defenseman Kimmo Timonen for an indefinite period due to blood clots in his right leg and both lungs. Timonen was arguably Philadelphia’s best defenseman last year even at the age of 39. Timonen’s career may be in jeopardy. Even in the best-case scenario, it is safe to say the Flyers will be without his services for at least half of the upcoming season.

The Flyers signed free agent Michael Del Zotto to replace Timonen, but Del Zotto doesn’t have the reputation of being very strong in his own zone.

The Flyers do have some young defensemen in their system such as Samuel Morin, Robert Hagg and Shayne Gostisbehere, but Hextall has indicated he doesn’t want to rush any of them to the NHL.

“I don't want to put a kid in a situation who is not ready for it," Hextall told Kimelman. "The way to protect yourself is to add a veteran if possible."

Barring the emergence of a young defenseman or a shocking turnaround defensively by Del Zotto, the Flyers defense may not even be as strong as it was last season.

Playing in front of a questionable defense will only make the Flyers rely on Mason even more.
So, the Flyers' ultimate success will be closely tied to the performance of their goalie.

If Mason is equal to the task and continues his improvement under the eye of goaltending coach Jeff Reese, the Flyers could be a dangerous playoff team in April. If Mason regresses, however, the Flyers could be on the outside looking in when the playoffs get under way this spring.

Sean Couturier emerged as a legitimate two-way center last season, finally taking a big step forward after a good but uninspiring first two seasons in the NHL.

Fans were excited when he fell to Philadelphia in the eighth overall slot of the 2011 draft, and Couturier was solid as a rookie.

But then he failed to improve much in his sophomore year, which was an admittedly strange lockout-shortened season. Regardless, there were a lot of expectations for Couturier to be better in 2013-14, and he delivered.

Couturier posted a career-high 39 points, but anyone who follows the Flyers or has seen Couturier play knows that there is far more to his game than creating offense.

His advanced metrics were simply amazing last season. Looking at this graph on somekindofninja.com, it's easy to tell just how valuable Couturier was.

Out of Flyers forwards who played at least 60 games last season, Couturier played against the best competition and took only 42.6 percent of his faceoffs in the offensive zone.

This means that Couturier was trusted against opponents' best players, and he started a heck of a lot of shifts in his own zone.

His usage is reflected in his relative on-ice Corsi of minus-4.0, which shows the Flyers controlled a larger share of shot attempts when he was on the bench—not surprising given Couturier's higher quality of competition.

Elsewhere, his penalty-killing ability was just as important to his—and Philadelphia's—success in 2013-14. Couturier was absolutely dominant on the kill.

He played the fifth-most short-handed minutes of any player in the entire league, including defensemen, leading all forwards in short-handed minutes. He was also tied for seventh overall in short-handed ice time per game while producing five short-handed points.

Among forwards who saw over 90 seconds of short-handed ice time per game last season, he ranked seventh in on-ice Corsi. In other words, he did a stellar job of limiting the opposition's power-play shot attempts.

The Flyers took a ridiculous amount of minor penalties last year (second-most in the entire league), and Couturier's presence is a major reason that their lack of discipline didn't cost them too much.

The 21-year-old also played a lot of minutes overall, 19:05 per game to be exact, had a solid 165 shots on goal and finished with a plus-one rating.

Due to all of this productivity and defensive aptitude, Couturier finished ninth in the Selke Trophy voting for the league's best defensive forward.

I wrote about Couturier's importance to the team this past February, as I realized just how good of a season he was having after tracking his advanced stats over time. I'm obviously not surprised at all about his top-10 Selke finish.

But even though Couturier has proven a lot over the past year, he still has quite a way to go before he can reach the guys at the top of that Selke list.

That question of whether or not Couturier can take the next step toward greatness is going to be instrumental in Philadelphia's success over the next few seasons.

If he doesn't take that step, he'll continue being a solid third-line center and outstanding penalty-killer who can impact a game but not dominate one.

If Couturier is able to elevate himself to new heights, then the Flyers will have a true weapon behind Claude Giroux in the lineup.

That would entail getting more shots on goal, upping his point total to around 50 per year and assuming a greater leadership role while still improving as a shutdown center and penalty-killer.

His time on ice per game should peak above 20 minutes while seeing the majority of his minutes against the other team's top line. 

He will never be as talented as Patrice Bergeron, and I don't expect him to dominate like Anze Kopitar or Jonathan Toews.

But if Couturier keeps improving and figures out a way to consistently excel at both ends of the ice, he may find himself mixed in with the tier below those guys sooner rather than later.

Couturier's development is arguably the biggest question facing the Flyers heading into training camp. Will he deliver?

Philadelphia better hope so. The future of the organization depends on it.

Unless otherwise noted, advanced statistics courtesy of Behind the Net.