Baltimore Orioles

Amid ongoing lawsuits between the Angelos family, the Baltimore Orioles hired Goldman Sachs to assess the franchise for a potential sale.

Per The Athletic's Daniel Kaplan, the team "quietly" made the hire because of the "ongoing bitter lawsuits between members of the Angelos family."

Kaplan noted the future of the Orioles ownership is "up in the air" with Peter Angelos currently ailing at 93 years old.

Tim Prudente and Justin Fenton of the Baltimore Banner reported in June that Louis Angelos is suing his brother, John, and mother, Georgia.

In the lawsuit, Louis claimed his father intended for the two brothers to control the Orioles together, but John manipulated his mother and restructured Peter's trust to gain full power and potentially move the franchise to Tennessee.

"John intends to maintain absolute control over the Orioles—to manage, to sell or, if he chooses, to move to Tennessee (where he has a home and where his wife’s career is headquartered)—without having to answer to anyone," the lawsuit states.

John issued a statement on June 13 denying that relocation was a possibility, saying the Orioles will "never leave" Baltimore.

In a separate statement released two days later, Georgia said John "has my full faith as well as the trust and confidence of Major League Baseball, commissioner Rob Manfred, MLB’s executive leadership group and the control persons of the 29 other MLB clubs who voted to approve John as the Orioles control person."

Last month, Steve Lash of the Daily Record reported Georgia filed a lawsuit in Baltimore County Circuit Court accusing Louis of "bitterness or his misplaced resentment" of his older brother.

Georgia's lawsuit seeks to confirm her as sole power of attorney for Peter and to have Louis removed "as a successor agent and hold him liable for breach of fiduciary duty, financial exploitation of Peter, an older and susceptible adult, and conversion."

According to Kaplan, there's no certainty that the Orioles will be put up for sale, but John and Georgia are "definitely evaluating options."

A status conference hearing is scheduled for Sept. 28.

Peter Angelos and a group of investors purchased the Orioles from Eli Jacobs for $173 million in 1993. He established a trust with his wife and two sons in 2017 after suffering a heart issue.

John is listed as chairman and CEO of the franchise on the Orioles' official website.

If anyone's wondering how the Baltimore Orioles are still winning games even after offloading two of their best players at the Aug. 2 trade deadline, there's at least one good explanation.

In Adley Rutschman, they have arguably the best catcher in Major League Baseball right now.

This is to say that the 24-year-old Rutschman is becoming what he was foretold to be when the Orioles drafted him at No. 1 overall in 2019. People were slapping Buster Posey comparisons on him left and right, and they stuck as he debuted as a consensus top-five prospect in 2020 and ascended to the top spot in Baseball America's rankings for 2022.

As they kinda-sorta-not-really say, with great hype comes great responsibility to immediately live up to it. Rutschman did in the sense that he was in the majors by May 21 even after his spring was sidetracked by a strained triceps, but he mostly ate a diet of humble pie as he hit .176 with no home runs through his first 20 games as an Oriole.

Then in his 21st game on June 15, the 6'2", 220-pound switch-hitter finally got off the schneid with his first long ball:

Things haven't been the same for Rutschman and the Orioles since then.

The Oregon State product has accumulated a .919 OPS, seven home runs and he's tied for the most fWAR of any American League hitter not named Aaron Judge since June 15. The Orioles lost on that date but got started on a 34-20 run on June 16. Among AL clubs, only the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners have won more games in this span.

Perhaps unfairly, the Orioles still only have a 2.6 percent chance of making the playoffs by FanGraphs' reckoning. Yet given how far they've come after losing 100-plus games in each of the last three full seasons and just how much Rutschman has to do with it, the man surely deserves at least some down-ballot love in the AL MVP voting.

This is, of course, assuming he doesn't fade down the stretch. But that doesn't seem likely, as he only seems to be getting more comfortable with each game he plays.

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Rutschman, the Hitter, Is As Advertised

Because the 2020 season was cancelled, it wasn't until last year that Rutschman got to play a full campaign in the minor leagues. He basically did everything right at the plate, slashing .285/.397/.502 with 23 home runs and only 11 more strikeouts than walks.

Those were surely the numbers of a complete hitter, and there really weren't any nit-picks to be found in scouting reports on Rutschman. His eye for strike zone earned him descriptors such as "elite" and "uncanny" from Baseball America, and he was likewise lauded for his ability to make contact.

These skills didn't show through after he first arrived in the majors, but they sure have lately.

Through his first 20 games, he had 22.0 strikeout percentage and a 7.3 walk percentage. He's improved those numbers to 16.4 and 15.9 over his last 50 games, which tracks with his downward-trending chase and whiff percentages:

Evidently a fan of having his cake and eating it too, Rutschman hasn't sacrificed any of what Baseball America deemed to be "potentially elite power" to get his approach on track. The .518 slugging percentage he has since June 15 is backed up by some solid batted-ball data, including a 39.9 hard-hit rate and a 10.1 barrel percentage.

More specifically, where Rutschman has really turned a corner is in punishing fastballs. His run value against them through 20 games was minus-7.8. It's plus-11.5 since then, tying him with Yordan Álvarez for the 10th-best mark among AL hitters.

Ever hear a broadcaster talk about how the game seems to be "slowing down" for a young player? That's Rutschman right now, and his offense is only half of it.

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Rutschman, the Defender, Is Also As Advertised

In addition to a potent bat, Rutschman was always supposed to offer more than just adequate defense behind the plate. Once again going to the Baseball America well, he projected to be "an advanced receiver and [have a] strong arm."

To the latter, it was clear early on that the goods were there:

The second caught stealing of Adley Rutschman's career:

--1.86 seconds on the pop time
--85.2 mph on the throw
--1 fist pump on the excitement pic.twitter.com/tWMt0wU1Hf

— Zach Silver (@zachsilver) June 17, 2022

What Rutschman initially lacked in tandem with those goods were results, as he was just 2-for-15 throwing out runners through July 15. That's no longer the case. He's 5-for-11 throwing runners out since then.

With regard to Rutschman's receiving, the fact that he has yet to record a passed ball is no small credit to him. Yet where he really shines is in framing strikes, to which Julio Rodríguez can attest:

Adley Rutschman entered today 11th in strike rate, at 49.2 percent. That will go up with a frame like this one: pic.twitter.com/joUMrDZ6nO

— Zach Silver (@zachsilver) June 29, 2022

Perhaps he's no Jose Trevino just yet, but Rutschman is tied for ninth in Statcast's Catcher Framing Runs metric. This is also yet another area where he's trending in the right direction, as his called-strike rates both outside and inside the zone are going up.

With most catchers who boast good framing numbers, it's fair to wonder how much is skill and how much is reputation. Yet perhaps less so with Rutschman. As a rookie with just 69 games under his belt, it's hard to believe that umpires are already programmed to give him the benefit of the doubt on close calls.

Besides, it surely takes real skill to be able to frame strikes all over the shadow of the zone. Relative to the league average, Rutschman's only true shortcoming is when he has to frame pitches off the corner of the plate to his right:

We're not saying that this alone explains why Orioles pitchers have a 3.66 ERA with Rutschman behind the plate compared to 4.41 when Robinson Chirinos catches...but we're not not saying that either.

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It's Only Going to Get Better for Rutschman and the Orioles

If there's one less-than-great thing looming in Rutschman's future, it's that his framing skills probably aren't going to be useful for much longer. Per MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, the automated strike zone is likely coming to the majors in 2024.

Otherwise, both Rutschman and the Orioles should just be getting started.

Though Rutschman is already living up to the Posey comparisons, his prime is likely still ahead of him. There's indeed no better example for him to follow than Posey himself, who was brilliant as a 23-year-old rookie in 2010 but even better between the ages of 25 and 28. His two-way brilliance netted him the National League MVP in 2012, and he was likewise the league's most valuable catcher between then and 2015.

While the supporting cast around Rutschman is already strong, they're far from done harvesting talent from a farm system that B/R's Joel Reuter rated as MLB's best after the 2022 draft.

Provided he makes a strong recovery from the right lat strain that's sidelined him since June, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez should be to Baltimore's starting rotation what Rutschman is to its offense. And he won't have to carry said offense squarely on his shoulders for much longer. With 18 homers, 18 stolen bases and a .959 OPS to his name, shortstop Gunnar Henderson is quickly running out of things to prove in the minors.

What the Orioles don't have in any kind of abundance are high-priced veterans to tie everything together. But that may not be the case for long, as general manager Mike Elias hinted on MLB Network Radio last weekend that a big offseason splurge is coming:

The Birds are back!

After being one of the biggest surprises this season, Mike Elias and the #Orioles have big plans. @Orioles | #Birdland pic.twitter.com/tQgEtFVJ8n

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) August 14, 2022

In retrospect, these big plans perhaps only make it more frustrating that the Orioles operated as a seller at the trade deadline. Teams that want to win generally don't deal away sluggers like Trey Mancini or closers like Jorge López, the latter of whom is under club control for two more seasons after 2022.

All the same, there's no question that the long game the Orioles have been playing since they went into rebuilding mode back in 2018 is getting shorter. The time to make a run at the franchise's first World Series since 1983 may not be now, but it is soon.

When things inevitably do go into overdrive in Baltimore, nobody should forget that it was Rutschman who first put the key in the ignition.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Trey Mancini's goodbye to the Baltimore Orioles medical staff meant more than the typical farewells from a player to an organization after he is traded.

Mancini was diagnosed with cancer in 2020 but returned to the field and won the 2021 American League Comeback Player of the Year. After Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported he was traded to the Houston Astros as part of a three-team deal, the slugger thanked the Orioles medical staff and the Johns Hopkins doctors that helped him.

"I think they saved my life," he said, per Zachary Silver of MLB.com.

Joe Trezza of MLB.com detailed what Mancini faced as he sat out the entire 2020 season, noting he was diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer and needed chemotherapy for months.

"There were times early on when I wasn't entirely sure I’d be playing baseball again," Mancini said. "I'd be lying if I'd say that was the first thing that came to mind. The whole time I just wanted to be healthy long-term and live a long life. And baseball definitely was on the back burner when I was going through all that."

Yet he eventually returned to the field in 2021 and slashed .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs and 71 RBI. He finished second in the Home Run Derby that year and was embraced by fans who offered their support.

"It meant the world to me, the support I got from my teammates, and all the fans here," Mancini said. "The fans in Baltimore have always been so amazing at rallying behind their players. It didn't surprise me in the slightest bit, the support I got. It meant so much and really helped me get through and get really excited to get back to playing baseball."

Mancini's return was the biggest storyline of the Orioles' 2021 season, but they have been more competitive this year with a 51-51 record. They are just three games back of the final American League wild-card spot, although that didn't stop them from trading the 30-year-old, who could become a free agent after the 2023 season.

ESPN's Jeff Passan provided the full details of the deal:

Right-hander Seth Johnson, whose inclusion @Ken_Rosenthal first reported, is the best prospect in this deal. All he's done is put up numbers -- but the Rays were looking to move him because of looming 40-man crunch. He will miss perhaps all of next year after Tommy John surgery.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 1, 2022

Mancini is slashing .268/.347/.404 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI this season. He joins an Astros team that is in first place in the American League West at 67-36 and figures to be a realistic threat to win the World Series when the playoffs begin.

While his championship chances improved with the trade, Mancini wanted to thank those with the Orioles who helped him get back to this point.

The Baltimore Orioles are reportedly trading veteran Trey Mancini to the Houston Astros, according to Dan Connolly of The Athletic.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported it's a three-team deal, with the Tampa Bay Rays getting outfielder Jose Siri from Houston.

Three-team trade! Full deal, according to sources.

Houston gets: 1B/OF Trey Manicini and RHP Jayden Murray

Baltimore gets: RHP Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott

Tampa Bay gets: CF Jose Siri

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 1, 2022

The Orioles are finally beginning to turn the corner in their long and painful rebuild. Flirting with a .500 finish (51-51) is a welcome departure for a franchise that owned MLB's worst winning percentage (.379) between 2017 and 2021, per Stathead.

To the point Baltimore was going to be active ahead of Tuesday's trade deadline, though, it figured to be more of a seller rather than a buyer. This might have been the last time to cash in on Mancini as a trade asset since he has a $10 million mutual option for 2023.

The 30-year-old's raw numbers aren't great.

Through 92 games, the first baseman/outfielder has 10 home runs, 86 strikeouts and a .268/.347/.404 slash line.

Mancini's advanced numbers better display how he's performing relative to his peers. He has a .330 wOBA and 114 wRC+, according to FanGraphs, and he boasts a .268 expected batting average and a .468 expected slugging percentage, per Baseball Savant.

His home run total might look a little different as well if the Orioles hadn't pushed back the fence in left field.

The 2019 season will probably remain an outlier in Mancini's MLB career. He hit 35 homers and had a .535 slugging percentage that year.

However, the 2021 American League Comeback Player of the Year—he won the award after a cancer diagnosis in 2020 and returning to the field—has shown he can be a dependable hitter and get on base at a healthy clip.

The right-handed Mancini should have a positive impact on Houston's offense over the stretch run, and his $10 million salary for 2023 isn't a bad investment in the event he wants to return.

The New York Mets are rumored to be interested in pursuing a trade for Baltimore Orioles slugger Trey Mancini, which would end his tenure with the only franchise he's known since his major league debut in 2016.

Ahead of the Aug. 2 trade deadline, Mancini seems to have accepted his fate, telling Mark Viviano of WJZ-TV in Baltimore that he's approaching the next four games at Camden Yards as his last as an Oriole and he's "taking it all in."

Mancini can become a free agent after the 2022 season thanks to the mutual option in his contract for next year. Primarily playing as Baltimore's designated hitter, Mancini is slashing .268/.345/.749 in 86 games this year with nine home runs and 37 RBI.

The 30-year-old has been one of the faces of the Orioles throughout his run with the team. He has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last four years, including a career-high 35 in 2019. Mancini missed the entire 2020 season after undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon. He returned last year to hit 21 home runs with 71 RBI, earning the American League Comeback Player of the Year award.

If the Mets do acquire Mancini, it would reunite him with manager Buck Showalter, who coached him from 2016 to 2018 in Baltimore. It would also move him from the last-place team in the AL East to a New York team that is battling to win the National League East.

Mancini would provide the Mets with a consistent hitter at the DH spot who can also man the field. He's made 25 starts at first base this year and has also spent time in both corner outfield spots.

The Orioles are 47-48 heading into Monday's home opener against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Mets (59-37) are set to host the New York Yankees in the first Subway Series of the season.

The New York Mets reportedly "continued to scout" Baltimore Orioles slugger Trey Mancini during his most recent series against the New York Yankees, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

New York already traded for one designated hitter on Friday, adding Daniel Vogelbach from the Pittsburgh Pirates in a deal for pitcher Colin Holderman. The team could still look to add more depth to the lineup with Mancini, who can become a free agent after the season.

The 30-year-old is hitting .271 with a .349 on-base percentage and nine home runs in 85 games in 2022. He's also already familiar with current Mets manager Buck Showalter having played for him in 2016-18 with the Orioles.

Mancini has mostly been a designated hitter this season, although he has made 25 starts at first base and has appeared at both corner outfield spots this year. He has 291 career appearances in the outfield, which could give the Mets some valuable versatility in the roster.

The right-handed hitter could also form a platoon with the left-handed Vogelbach if the team wants to keep both as a DH. Though Mancini hits well against all pitchers, Vogelbach has a .896 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season but just a .423 mark against lefties.

It would help upgrade the Mets' weakness at DH.

J.D. Davis has made the most starts at the position this year (39) and is hitting just .240 with three home runs. The team's designated hitters as a whole have a .217 batting average with nine home runs. Five of those home runs were from regular first baseman Pete Alonso.

Mancini is someone who could help as the Mets try to hold onto their slim lead in the NL East, although the Orioles might not want to sell a productive hitter as they remain in playoff contention.

The 47-47 squad entered Sunday just 3.5 games out of the final wild-card spot in the AL.

The Baltimore Orioles have reached a contract agreement with No. 1 overall draft pick Jackson Holliday on a record deal for a high school player, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday is in agreement with the Orioles on a record deal for a HS player, just a touch over No. 2 pick Druw Jones $8.185M deal. Holliday is a SS from Oklahoma and the son of Matt Holliday.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 21, 2022

Holliday, who is the son of former MLB outfielder Matt Holliday, played ball for Stillwater High School in Oklahoma. He hit .685 with 89 hits, 17 home runs and 79 RBI last season.

Darragh McDonald of MLB Trade Rumors gave some more context on the money:

"The No. 1 overall pick came with an accompanying slot value of $8.84MM. Though Heyman is vague about the exact figure, it seems like the Orioles will save around $600K to spread around to some of their other draft picks.

"The Orioles have a bonus pool of $16.933MM at their disposal, the largest amount for this year’s draft. Teams are allowed to outspend their pool by as much as 5% without losing future draft picks, although there is a 75% tax on the overage. That means the Orioles can spend around $17.78MM in bonuses, though it seems Holliday will take close to half of that."

That appears to be money well-spent for the Orioles, who are obviously bullish about his prospects.

"He's a five-tool shortstop left-handed bat," Orioles GM Mike Elias said on the pick, per The Athletic. "We project him to remain as a shortstop defensively. But he does it all. He throws. He's a plus runner. He's gonna hit and hit for power. He's got the best swing in the draft or one of the best swings in the draft. He's got everything in front of him."

FanGraphs raved about his future potential as well: "He checks literally every box, and there aren't many lefty-hitting shortstops with this kind of juice. He projects as an All-Star shortstop."

Holliday joins a loaded Orioles farm system that already included five players in MLB.com's top-100 prospect list, including pitcher Grayson Rodriguez and infielder Gunnar Henderson. As Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post wrote, things are looking good in Baltimore after some lean years.

Orioles finish the first half at .500, still have Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and others arriving imminently, and now get Jackson Holliday with the first overall pick. Not a bad few months in Baltimore after a bad few years in Baltimore.

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) July 17, 2022

Holliday is the second son of an ex-major leaguer to be drafted first overall, as Baseball Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. first earned the honor with the Seattle Mariners in 1987.

Fifteen years after seeing his father play in the World Series as a member of the Colorado Rockies, Jackson Holliday's Major League Baseball journey has begun.

The Baltimore Orioles selected Holliday with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft on Sunday.

Jackson Holliday. No. 1 off the board.

The @Orioles make a splash, selecting the son of seven-time All-Star, Matt Holliday: pic.twitter.com/K1dbu77YmO

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 17, 2022

Holliday is the oldest son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday. Matt was a seventh-round draft pick by the Rockies out of Stillwater High School in 1998. He spent five full seasons in the minors before getting called up to The Show in 2004.

Jackson's path to the big leagues figures to be more expedited, as long as he develops as expected. The 18-year-old was named Oklahoma's Baseball Player of the Year after a historic 2022 high school season.

#OKState commit and projected top-five draft pick Jackson Holliday was named the state’s baseball Gatorade Player of the Year today.

The son of Matt Holliday had a national-record 89 hits, batted .685, hit 17 homers, stole 30 bases and had an insane 2.141 OPS.

— Jacob Unruh (@jacobunruh) June 3, 2022

Per MLB.com, Holliday is the No. 2 overall prospect in this year's draft with above-average tools across the board, including a plus hit tool:

"Holliday has an advanced approach, no surprise given his roots, and a knack for putting the barrel on the ball. He usually makes consistent hard contact, though he didn't during the summer when he let his simple left-handed stroke get too long. After getting bigger and stronger, he's hitting the ball with more authority than ever this spring, and he also looks more relaxed at the plate and is letting his considerable power come naturally."

There will still be a steep learning curve for Holliday as he transitions into pro ball, but he's got a smooth swing from the left side of the plate that will carry him a long way as he develops his other skills.

It's unclear at this point if Holliday will be able to remain at shortstop as he gets older. He's got excellent speed and some twitchiness to handle the position, but a lot will be determined by how he changes physically as his body continues to mature.

The Orioles are certainly trending in the right direction, though there remains a lot of work to do at the MLB level.

Adley Rutschman, the No. 2 overall prospect in MLB coming into the season, made his big league debut in May. Right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (No. 6 overall prospect) could make his debut later this season.

The Athletic's Keith Law had Baltimore's farm system ranked as the 10th-best group in MLB coming into this season. Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, D.L. Hall and Jordan Westburg could join Rutschman and Rodriguez in forming the nucleus of the next great Orioles team.

Adding Holliday to the mix will go a long way toward ensuring that Baltimore's farm system remains strong as many of those prospects start to graduate within the next year or two. He will eventually join them in the big leagues, as the Orioles look to load up in an attempt to build a consistently dominant team capable of competing with the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox in the American League East.

It was only last year that the Baltimore Orioles suffered 19 straight defeats en route to their third 100-loss campaign in the last three full seasons. That'll happen during a rebuild, and theirs clearly still needed work.

But is that still true a year later?

In no time at all, the Orioles have become a real player in the American League postseason picture. Their 10-game winning streak—the franchise's first since Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr. and Mike Mussina still roamed the dugout in 1999—is part of an 18-7 run since June 16 that has propelled them over the .500 mark to 45-44. They won 52 games in 2021.

What a streak for the @Orioles! pic.twitter.com/8qW7UbrL5T

— MLB (@MLB) July 14, 2022

Because the New York Yankees (62-27) have basically refused to lose all season, first place in the AL East remains a whopping 17 games out of the Orioles' reach. Yet the same is not true of the AL wild-card race, as the O's are only 1.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, who are both 47-43, for the third and final slot.

Trouble is, the odds that Baltimore will make the playoffs for the first time since 2016 remain slim. FanGraphs, for example, grants it only a 2.2 percent chance.

The Orioles don't necessarily have to accept those odds, but with the Aug. 2 trade deadline inching closer, the clock is ticking for them to lean one way or the other.

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Anatomy of a Winning Streak: Some Hitting and Lots of Pitching and Defense

Baltimore's run differential really captures how much more competitive it's been of late:

• First 64 Games: Minus-48
• Last 25 Games: Plus-42

Because it came June 15, Adley Rutschman's first career home run isn't a perfect demarcation point. There is nonetheless a correlation that can't be ignored, as it isn't terribly surprising that the Orioles have started winning games as the now-former No. 1 prospect has found his stroke with an .876 OPS since that fateful date.

So, where were you when Adley hit his first OPACY home run? pic.twitter.com/ru2K0xySvJ

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 7, 2022

In addition to the club's 24-year-old catcher, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander have also had their bats going. Since June 16, that foursome has been 21 points better than average to the tune of a 121 wRC+.

Yet it's more so been the arms that have kept the burners on during Baltimore's hot stretch. Its pitchers own a 2.67 ERA since June 16, with the starters accounting for a league-best 2.52 ERA.

The common ingredient here is dripping with irony. Whereas the Orioles infamously discouraged cutters while Dan Duquette was running baseball operations from 2011 to 2018, manager Brandon Hyde and general manager Mike Elias clearly feel differently. Their starters boast an MLB-high 20.4 percent cutter usage since June 16 with a 4.5 run value to match.

Dean Kremer, Filthy 90mph Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/BNs1W1fekH

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 24, 2022

The Baltimore bullpen, meanwhile, is going about as strong as it has been all season. It has a 2.89 ERA since June 16, and All-Star closer Jorge Lopez and rookie setup man Felix Bautista have combined to strike out 43.9 percent of batters.

The athleticism of the Orioles defense has also been a factor. A hard thing to measure, to be sure, but the O's notably rank behind only the New York Mets and Houston Astros in allowing a .344 average on hard-hit balls in play since June 16. Luck is a factor, but there was more than that at play on outs such as this one and this one.

The Orioles have gotten good because they've played good baseball. It's funny how that works, and it points to the obvious question: Why wouldn't Elias want to buy in to the club's budding playoff run?

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And Yet There Is a Case for the Orioles to Sell

If it's a promise Orioles fans are looking for, Elias has only vagaries to offer for now.

"We're going to be looking at different things. There will be moving parts," he said Monday, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. "It's potentially not going to be a black-and-white path with which way we will approach the deadline. I'm looking forward to seeing what new information the next few weeks bring, both from our team and what happens around the league."

One might expect more enthusiasm from an executive whose team is playing its best baseball in six years, yet the potentially unsustainable nature of the Orioles' improved play is perhaps justification enough for Elias' waffling.

The offense isn't thriving on an abundance of home runs and walks or a shortage of strikeouts but rather a spike in productivity with runners in scoring position, with their average going from .222 prior to June 15 to .274 since June 16. And as good as the starting pitchers have been lately, it's hard to maintain both a 29th-ranked ground-ball percentage and top-ranked home run-to-fly ball ratio.

Throw in the fact that the Orioles haven't exactly been taking on world-beaters—their last three opponents are among MLB's 11 worst teams—and Elias has ample reason to believe that the "what goes up must come down" rule will apply to his team.

Besides, the farm system could use a boost.

Though B/R's Joel Reuter ranked Baltimore's talent pool at No. 4 on May 30, that was when Rutschman still had prospect eligibility and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez was healthy. That's no longer true of the former, while the latter has no time table for his return from a strained right lat.

The Orioles hypothetically have plenty of room to add to MLB's lowest payroll. That may not be the reality, though. Elias has been transparent that big spending in free agency is not in the team's future. Perhaps uncoincidentally, the sons of owner Peter Angelos are suing each other over control of the franchise.

If this means the Orioles won't simply buy what they can't develop in-house, then arguably the best thing they can do between now and Aug. 2 is add more pieces to develop.

At the least, they could rent slugger Trey Mancini before free agency calls his number at the end of the year. Ditto for right-hander Jordan Lyles, while controllable pieces such as Santander (through 2024) and Lopez (2024) or even Mullins (2025) and fellow outfielder Austin Hays (2025) could fetch more substantial hauls.

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Or They Could Take a Cue from Trey Mancini

Even if the Orioles aren't as ahead of schedule with their rebuild as it seems right now, they're sure as heck not behind schedule.

Rebuilding is about making incremental progress by developing young players and teaching veterans new tricks. The Orioles are competitive now precisely because they've succeeded on both fronts. To the former, there's Mountcastle, Hays and especially Rutschman. To the latter, Mullins and Lopez were afterthoughts before certain adjustments led them to stardom.

If another barometer of rebuilding progress is fan interest, Elias and the club's decision-makers would do well to notice what Mancini has about the changing environment at Oriole Park at Camden Yards:

"There hasn't been an energy like that in Camden Yards since my rookie year in 2017."@TreyMancini highlights the @Orioles' flawless homestand, the play of rookie teammate Adley Rutschman and more on #PregameSpread.@adnansvirk | #Birdland pic.twitter.com/LTaHAWgGr8

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 13, 2022

Under these circumstances, to sell at the deadline would be, well, a hard sell.

Especially since the Orioles stand to give their farm system the boost it needs by drafting, say, Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday with the No. 1 pick on Sunday, there wouldn't be much sense in pivoting for the future by trading parts of said future. Certainly, they stand a better chance of building on this year's step forward if Santander, Lopez, Mullins, Hays and others stick around for 2023 and beyond.

As he's a reasonably productive hitter who could probably land a low- or even mid-level prospect in a trade, there's more sense in moving Mancini. At least in a vacuum sort of sense anyway.

Outside the vacuum, though, Mancini is the team's longest-tenured player and, oh yeah, a cancer survivor who was the AL Comeback Player of the Year in 2021. They love him as much in the clubhouse as they do in the bleachers, so to remove him from a surprise playoff run even for a blue-chip prospect would constitute a baffling failure to read the room.

This doesn't mean the Orioles have to go in the opposite direction and mortgage their farm system to acquire name-brand players at the trade deadline.

Blake Snell, as Rosenthal suggested, or Pablo Lopez, as MLB.com's Mark Feinsand proposed, would be nice, but the Orioles could do just as well going on a buy-low search for controllable players who need changes of scenery. To throw a few names out there: Think Miguel Andujar, Dominic Smith or Miguel Sano.

It wouldn't be a full-on charge, but this approach would sure beat a retreat. Because even if there may come a time when the Orioles will have to live to fight another day, they shouldn't be asked to do that while they're only starting to land punches.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.