Utah State Football

The New Mexico Bowl is always one of the first bowls played each bowl season, which might be one of the reasons the last six New Mexico Bowls have all played over on the totals; perhaps offenses are still clicking, following the regular season, instead of getting stale during a long break.

So might we expect a high-scoring affair when 9-4 Utah State and 7-5 UTEP meet in the ninth edition of the New Mexico Bowl Saturday, December 20, in Albuquerque?

New Mexico Bowl point spread: Aggies opened as 11-point favorites; the total was 49. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 30.4-24.0 Aggies

Why the Miners can cover the spread

After eight straight losing seasons, the Miners went 7-5 this season, reaching a bowl for the first time since 2010. UTEP started 2-3 this year, then went 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from there, ending with a 24-21 victory over Middle Tennessee.

It also finished as one of the best teams in college football to bet on this season, going 9-3 ATS. The Miners averaged 215 yards per game on the ground, and their defense held four of their last six opponents to 21 points or less.

UTEP was dogged by nine or more points six times this season; it went 4-2 ATS in those six contests.

Why the Aggies can cover the spread

The Aggies had been on a run of 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread until losing their season finale to Boise State 50-19, missing the cover as 10-point dogs. But before that, Utah State had won five in a row, by an average score of 32-13, even as it played through injuries to its top two quarterbacks.

On the season, the Aggies outrushed opponents by a 173-129 per-game margin, and the defense held 10 of 13 opponents to 21 points or less. In fact, going into the Boise State loss, USU had allowed just 45 points over its previous four games.

The Aggies are playing in a bowl for the fourth straight season; they're 2-1 both SU and ATS over their last three bowls.

Smart pick

Utah State put up better numbers on offense and on defense than UTEP this season, posted a better record and played a tougher schedule. So the smart money here resides with the Aggies, minus the points.

Trends

• The total has gone under in five of Texas El Paso's last six games
• Utah State is 5-1 SU in its last six games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

The Utah State Aggies have transformed over the past few seasons, from one of the worst programs in FBS football to a real contender who could hang with pretty much any team. One of the major reasons for that was QB Chuckie Keeton, who had quietly developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country.

In just about two seasons worth of games, Keeton had thrown for nearly 6,000 yards while adding 56 passing touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. In that same span, he has added 1,153 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing. That running ability led to him being one of the most elusive QBs in the sport, as he constantly used his legs to avoid sacks and extend plays.

In this year's game against hated BYU on Oct. 4, Keeton went down with an injury after landing awkwardly while being tackled in the first quarter, which led to him being on crutches on the sideline for the remainder of the game. The Aggies just weren't the same after that, losing 31-14 to the Cougars in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score suggests.

On Saturday, the Aggies got even more bad news, as coach Matt Wells announced that Keeton is out for the season (h/t CBSSports). Both his ACL and MCL in his left knee are torn, and Keeton will undergo surgery next week that is expected to take about eight months to heal.

The loss of Keeton is absolutely devastating for Utah State. The Aggies had hoped to contend for a conference title in their first season in the Mountain West Conference. With Keeton's season-ending injury, those title aspirations seem like a pipe dream. Keeton was the heart and soul of this team, and is what turned an otherwise middle-of-the-road Utah State team into a dangerous team capable of winning any game.

The Aggies will now turn to junior Craig Harrison as their signal-caller. After taking over for Keeton against BYU, Harrison was only 18-of-41 for 185 yards and one touchdown. If USU is to have any hope of still contending for the conference title, Harrison will have to show a lot more potential than he did against the Cougars.

Chuckie Keeton's injury is an unfortunate reminder that injuries can strike at any time, regardless of how talented and successful a player might be. For now, the Aggies are left to pick up the pieces and see how well they can hold together without their star player.

The Utah State Aggies have improved drastically over the past few seasons, going from one of the worst teams in the nation to a borderline top-25 team. The Aggies have also garnered more respect with their newfound success, as they are no longer considered one of the proverbial punching bags of college football.

This week, Utah State took another step forward, getting a home-and-home deal with in-state powerhouse BYU.

The deal turns what would have been a three-year BYU two-for-one into a four-year home-and-home.  The contract extends the in-state series through 2016.

Utah State, long considered the "little brother" to Utah and BYU, has been pushing for a home-and-home for a while.  Former coach Gary Andersen made it a common talking point in his interviews.

Until recently, BYU had no reason to give Utah State a home-and-home.  USU's Romney Stadium has well less than half the capacity of BYU's Lavell Edwards Stadium, making the game much more profitable if played in Provo.

BYU also didn't need the game.  Utah State had a terrible team, and BYU had a perennial top-25 team.  Utah State fans considered BYU a rival, but BYU fans just viewed the game as a "cupcake" game.

While BYU has still won two of the last three games against USU, it is no longer considered a guaranteed win for the Cougars.  For the first time in decades, playing Utah State is actually beneficial for BYU.  The Aggies are a competitive team now, and a Utah State- BYU game is attractive to television broadcasters.

BYU was also in need of a late-season game for 2016, and the Aggies were in a position to hold out for a home-and-home in order to give BYU that needed game.

Overall, Utah State may still not be near Utah or BYU's level as a program, but the Aggies are slowly making progress.  Getting the home-and-home should make Aggie fans happy and provide a platform off of which to build for the future.

The 2012 Famous Idaho Bowl will feature the No. 22 Utah State Aggies against the Toledo Rockets in what will be a game dominated by the Aggies' superior defense.

Utah St. was great on the defensive end this season.

The Aggies finished the 2012 campaign with the No. 8 defense in the nation as the staple of their success. Granted, Utah St. doesn't play a tough schedule by any means, but many of its past opponents this season were equal to, if not better than, the Rockets.

In Week 3, the Aggies were able to hold the Wisconsin Badgers in check, surrendering just 16 points to the Big Ten champions. While it didn't look like an impressive feat at the time, the Badgers ended up winning their season finale against the then No. 12 Nebraska Cornhuskers, 70-31.

That Badgers victory made the Aggies' low-scoring, losing effort at the beginning of the season look much more impressive when put into perspective. Utah St.'s two losses this season were by a combined total of six points, and both weren't barn-burners by any stretch.

Toledo comes into this game with a huge uncertainty at the quarterback position.

The normal starter, Terrance Owens, is bothered by an ankle injury abut is expected to play (via Yahoo! Sports).

Dantin hasn't proved to be a great quarterback during his time with Toledo. Besides a huge game against a lowly Akron Zips squad, Dantin's completion percentage had not reached above 50 percent in the other two games he participated in this year.

That number doesn't figure to get any better with the Aggies' ability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Utah St. currently ranks No. 8 in the country with 39 sacks. With that type of pressure, Dantin won't have anywhere near the same amount of time he had to throw the ball last week, which will take away some of his effectiveness in the pocket.

Even if Owens gets the start, his injured ankle will make him a bigger target for the Aggies pass rush, helping Utah St. to have an easier time getting to the normally speedy signal-caller.

Turnovers will also be a major problem for Toledo, no matter who is at quarterback. Owens looked great for the Rockets at the start of the season, keeping his interceptions limited. However, in his last six games of 2012, Owens threw all eight of his total interceptions.

That will play right into the hands of the Aggies, which finished in the top 50 in the country with 12 interceptions on the season. Even with Dantin behind center, the Aggies should be able to force the erratic quarterback to make a huge mistake that leads to an interception or two.

Toledo's rushing attack will no doubt be the biggest concern for Utah St. in this game. The Rockets' running back, David Fluellen, was sensational this season, racking up more than 1,400 yards.

Fluellen will be returning after missing last week's game with an ankle injury, so there's a good chance he won't be entirely healthy for this game. If that's the case, Fluellen might lose a step and not have his same explosiveness.

Adding to that, the Aggies should have no problem shutting down the Rockets' passing attack, making Toledo a one-dimensional offense and far more predictable to stop.

It remains to be seen if either of these teams can handle the pressure of a big game, but the best recipe for success in a pressure-packed game like this one is great defense.

The Aggies have the advantage over the Rockets in that category.

In an underrated bowl matchup, the 9-3 Toledo Rockets out of the MAC take on the 10-2 Aggies of Utah State from the WAC in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Saturday afternoon in Boise (4:30 pm ET, ESPN).

Early odds listed Utah State as an eight- or nine-point favorite over Toledo, and that spread quickly got bet up to 10 points by Tuesday.

The Aggies lost this bowl game last year to Ohio, 24-23, according to the bowl histories of each team. Toledo, meanwhile, is riding a 3-1 ATS bowl streak in recent years.

In its first season under Coach Campbell, Toledo hoped to contend in the MAC's West Division, and did so until two late losses put them at 6-2 in conference play and tied for second.

The Rockets lost their season opener by a touchdown to Arizona, then won their next eight games in a row, picking up a nice upset in the process when they beat Cincinnati.

Toledo then lost to Ball State by a touchdown, then at eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois by a touchdown. The Rockets then ended their regular season with a 35-23 win over Akron.

Toledo, led by RB David Fluellen (1,460 yards, 13 TDs) and WR Bernard Reedy (82 catches for 1,050 yards), averaged 456 YPG offensively this season. But the Rockets' defense gave up 464 YPG and at least 28 points in half their games.

Utah State, meanwhile, figured to contend in the WAC this year, and ended up winning the conference title by going a perfect 6-0 in WAC play. The Aggies opened 2-0 with a rivalry win over Utah, then lost a game at Wisconsin 16-14 on a missed field goal at the buzzer.

USU then won two more in a row  before losing a tough 6-3 decision at BYU. Since then the Aggies have won their last six games, including four blow-outs and a 48-41 win at ranked Louisiana Tech.

Led by QB Chuckie Keeton (68 percent completions, 27/9 TD/INT) and RB Kerwynn Williams (1,270 yards, 12 TDs) Utah State averaged 461 YPG on offense this season. On the other side of the ball the Aggies allowed just 323 YPG defensively, and held eight of their opponents to 17 points or less.

Idaho Potato Bowl Pick: Toledo has had a fine season, but its defense is a little on the generous side. Utah State, meanwhile, is two field goals away from being perfect on the season, and battle-tested after tough games with Wisconsin, BYU and Louisiana Tech. We'll give the points and take the Aggies. (courtesy of PickShark.com)

All odds, stats and trends mentioned courtesy of OddsShark.com. Mike Pickett is an Analyst to Bleacher Report and contributes to the Twitter feed.

For the Utah State Aggies, a return to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is a chance for redemption.

In 2011, Utah State finished its best regular season since 1997 with a bid for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, where it would be matched up against MAC opponent Ohio University.

Just as it appeared the Aggies had done enough to secure a bowl victory, Ohio quarterback Tyler Tettleton drove his team down the field and capped off the drive with a one-yard touchdown run with just 11 seconds left on the clock.

The Aggies would lose their second straight bowl game on the blue turf 24-23; the  last time they lost a bowl game, it was the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl in Boise.

Perhaps, then, the third time’s a charm for the school that has found a way to become the best college football product Utah has to offer this year.

Once again, Utah State will be matched up against a MAC opponent, this time the Toledo Rockets. Boasting a powerful offense spearheaded by three offensive weapons in quarterback Terrance Owens, running back David Fluellen and wide receiver Bernard Reedy, the Rockets are a dangerous squad. Any of these athletes has the potential to spark a big play with every offensive possession.

But Utah State has dealt with this before and responded well.

Back on November 17th, the Aggies were up against then-No. 20 Louisiana Tech, which was eyeing a potential berth in a BCS bowl. Touting one of the nation’s top offense and quarterback in Colby Cameron, who had yet to throw an interception this season, the Bulldogs were flying high and very confident.

Utah State did not back down from the challenge, building an early 17-3 lead and holding off a furious second-half charge during which Louisiana Tech ended up tying the game. In overtime, Utah State finished off the Bulldogs, winning 48-41 in Ruston.

Some may point to the fact that the Aggies let Louisiana Tech storm back as a reason for concern. However, it speaks to the determination of the defense as well as the mentality of the offense not to take the foot off the gas pedal.

Utah State has generally been regarded as a solid defensive squad, being the WAC’s best overall defense statistically and holding Wisconsin and BYU to a total of 22 points combined in the Aggies’ two losses this season.

How about a little respect for the offense, though?

The Aggies have scored at least 35 points in eight games this season, despite not needing nearly that many to win those games.

This is due, in part, to sophomore quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who has blossomed into a star in Logan. There were rumblings from critics that Keeton did not perform well in big games, even into this season. But those critics were silenced when Keeton accounted for 461 total yards against Louisiana Tech, 340 of which were through the air.

Helping Keeton out on offense is senior running back Kerwynn Williams, who has nearly made everyone forget former Utah State running back Robert Turbin, who punished opponents in college just one year ago. Unlike the man he followed, Williams is an undersized back but has the speed and versatility to make him attractive to NFL scouts.

Rushing for 1,277 yards and 12 touchdowns this year, Williams is one of the hidden gems of the bowl season.

Keeton and Williams are great counters to the offensive weapons that Toledo possesses. In addition, the pair may have a much easier time moving the ball against Toledo’s defense than the Rockets will against Utah State.

The Rockets rank next to last in the MAC in pass defense, giving up 296 yards per game through the air. In addition, Toledo has had trouble against dual-threat quarterbacks this season, giving up 407 yards passing and 162 yards on the ground to Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch in a 31-24 loss to the Huskies.

If Utah State starts quickly against the Rockets, it could be a long day for the team from Ohio.

It has been a dream season so far for the Aggies, who have won 10 games and beat in-state rival Utah earlier this season. All that’s left to do is put the cap on it.

That cap would be taking care of unfinished business in Boise. Thanks to a confident defense and underrated offense, the prospects look good for Gary Andersen's team.

The Utah State Aggies are used to being considered the "little brother" in the state of Utah, behind the University of Utah Utes and BYU Cougars.  Two years ago, they ended a 17-year drought against BYU that was the beginning of signs that the Aggies were looking to shed that "little brother" label. 

Well, Friday night the Aggies took another step toward establishing themselves as a serious in-state program, knocking off Utah in overtime, 27-20.

Don't let the overtime fool you, Utah State was clearly the better team tonight and deserved to win more than the Utes did.  Overall, the game was mostly controlled by the Aggies, with the Utes using several big plays to push the game into overtime.

The Aggies came out strong and set the tempo in the first quarter.  First came a blocked punt that Utah State recovered in the end zone for a touchdown.  Then Aggies QB Chuckie Keeton fired a 15-yard touchdown pass to running back Joe Hill right before the end of the first quarter, giving the Aggies a 13-0 lead when the PAT was missed.

Over the next two quarters, the Utes and Aggies were engaged in a defensive battle, with the Utes eventually coming back to tie the game at 13-13 after two Utah State fumbles that killed the Aggies' momentum. 

In the fourth quarter, Utah State took the lead on a four-yard touchdown pass from Keeton to tight end Kellen Bartlett.  Unfortunately for them, the Utes answered with a 28-yard touchdown pass with just over three minutes left to Kenneth Scott, who had a big game for the Utes. He consistently outjumped the smaller Aggie defensive backs.

The Aggies had to sweat it out at the end of regulation, as their mistake-filled drive gave way to a 52-yard Utah field-goal attempt as time expired.  Utah kicker Coleman Petersen failed to convert, sending the game into overtime.

The Aggies were up first, and after a Chuckie Keeton scramble on third down gave Utah State the ball at the 1-yard line, running back Kerwynn Williams punched it in two plays later to give the Aggies a seven-point lead.

The Utes appeared to equalize on their possession when John Hays threw a touchdown pass to tight end Jake Murphy, only to see it called back for offensive pass interference because Murphy pushed off the defender.  Two plays later, the Aggies batted down Hays' pass in the end zone, giving Utah State their first win over the Utes since 1997.

It may not have been the prettiest win, but the Aggies used tough defense and a whole lot of determination to beat in-state power Utah for the first time in 15 years, and took another step toward achieving legitimacy as a serious program in the state of Utah.

Bobby Wagner missed the combine because he was sick. Friday, in Logan, UT, Wagner put together a sick set of numbers to grab the NFL's attention after missing his golden opportunity in Indianapolis.

NFL.com's dean of the draft Gil Brandt has the report:

Wagner was supposed to work out at the NFL Scouting Combine but couldn’t due to pneumonia. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46 seconds and recorded a 39-1/2-inch vertical and 11-foot broad jump. He completed the short shuttle in 4.24 seconds, did the three-cone drill in 7.03 seconds and did 24 strength lifts. Wagner had a fantastic workout, and will probably be selected in the middle of the second round. He’s been very productive in college. Wagner has been playing inside, but I think teams would like to play him as an outside linebacker.

CBS Sports draftnik Rob Rang gives us some perspective on those numbers:

That mark [4.45] would have beaten Cal's Mychal Kendricks' 4.45 time at the Combine. Wagner also matched Kendricks' 39.5" vertical jump, which led all linebackers at the Combine and posted a jaw-dropping 11'0 broad jump that not only beat all linebackers tested in Indianapolis (beating Kendricks' position-best effort by five inches), it was just one inch behind the best efforts put forth at the 2012 by any prospect. Georgia Tech wide receiver Stephen Hill and Central Florida cornerback Josh Robinson recorded broad jumps of 11'1". 

[Hendricks' 40 time was actually 4.47.]

Wagner is clearly one of the top two or three athletic talents in the draft at linebacker, and his film matches his abilities. The versatility to play inside or outside, and speed to run with the new breed of tight ends in the NFL will only enhance his value.

While Brandt projects him as a mid-second rounder, I have to agree with Ryan Lownes of DraftBreakdown.com, who projects Wagner as a top-40 pick and potential first-rounder. There aren't that many linebackers in this draft with scheme versatility and the tools to never leave the field. Don't be surprised if Wagner or Nebraska LB Lavonte David (who is a similar talent) hear their names called in the first round.

It's possible you still enjoyed yourself for a little while if you decided that you were too cool to watch the MAC, the WAC, the Sun Belt and the Mountain West in order to save TV time for the better bowls.

Then, when you heard about how those games ended, you threw a tantrum and decided to never be too cool for anything again.

Because the little bowls gave us excitement to kick off bowl season.

The number of combined points exceeded 46 in each game.

And while Temple blew out Wyoming in the opener, the final two games of the day had fans biting their nails.

Louisiana-Lafayette and San Diego State didn't sound like the most intriguing match-up. But Ragin' Cajun fans packed the Superdome, which made the New Orleans Bowl feel like a home game.

The Cajuns controlled most of the game. Darryl Surgent returned a punt 87 yards to the end zone and at one point Lafayette led 19-3.

But the Aztecs stormed back and Ryan Lindley hit Colin Lockett for a touchdown with 40 seconds left to give SDSU a 30-29 lead.

San Diego State's two-point conversion was nullified by a penalty (on the receiver who caught the ball) so Lafayette took over at their own 18 with 30 seconds to play.

After finding Javone Lawson for 13 yards, quarterback Blaine Gautier escaped the pocket and fired a 26-yard completion to Lawson.

A pass to Harry Peoples and a penalty on the Aztecs for trying to draw a false start set up Brett Baer for a 50-yard field goal.

Lafayette's kicking struggled all game but the snap and hold were good and Baer's kick squeaked through the uprights to light up the crowd and give the Cajuns a win for the record books.

Much like the New Orleans Bowl, Utah State fans turned Bronco Stadium into a home game-like atmosphere. Ohio fans were largely absent, as a small school across the country from Boise won't travel well.

Utah State dominated early and they led 23-10 in the third after Michael Smith's second touchdown run.

Ohio struck back though. After a brilliant touchdown catch by LaVon Brazill (in double coverage), the Bobcats were within a touchdown.

In the fourth, Ohio had 4th and 6 and 45 seconds left when Tyler Tettleton found Brazill on a lob pass for what was originally ruled a touchdown.

After review, however, they spotted the ball inside the 1 and Tettleton scrambled into the end zone with 14 seconds left.

Bobcats stormed the turf, while fans (those that were there) rejoiced in the stands.

Both games, though featuring less prestigious squads, gave us the thing we really wanted for Christmas: Bowl dramatics.

Maybe Florida International and Marshall will be a game to watch.